US Markets: Real-time Trading [Archive] - Page 11

pegasus5

11-21-2007, 09:23 PM

My gosh you find some great trades, how do you do it? do you have all different time frames of all eminis up? do you then do a DP on each pivot point until you find a setup you like with divergence? clearly that is the way to trade but wow!!
do you use the fib ext/retr.? I don't see them on your charts

I am always searching for divergences as these tend to be high reward setups when they work, though nobody knows just how far any setup will travel.

I use any and all tools in the toolbox..Fib retracements, extensions, projections....Market Profile...etc. I have specific charts I focus on for each instrument, such as 400 tick, 3, 5 min for ES. Once I have found what I believe is an optimum chart for specific instrument that give me consistent valid signals I DO NOT switch. I stay with what works for me and my style. Too many traders jump from this timeframe to the next looking for perfect signals rather than focus on just a couple. You'll be amazed at how many signals you will find during the course of a trading session.

:):)

pegasus5

11-21-2007, 09:25 PM

tar001

11-21-2007, 09:31 PM

well whatever you're doing its working haha:) why the NQ and ES? do you find that the patterns are better? I can certainly understand why you don't regularly trade the ER that thing is nuts
:D

One last thing I forgot to mention...I mainly focus on ES & NQ but do monitior ER2 & YM with the MTP Analyzer, but do not have those charts on the screen.

pegasus5

11-21-2007, 09:34 PM

well whatever you're doing its working haha:) why the NQ and ES? do you find that the patterns are better? I can certainly understand why you don't regularly trade the ER that thing is nuts
:D

ES ER & YM are highly correlated so for me I like ES best and YM a close second, so I monitor them both closely. The NQ sometimes has a mind of it's own and fires signals when the others don't...and can move 20 pts quickly.

tar001

11-21-2007, 09:52 PM

Yeah looking at a ES 400 tick chart right now I can see how divergence plays are key, so you look for divergences first and then look for a DP? That is a different train of thought from what I normally do but i think I am going to try that on Monday
would you consider the short that I have the RED arrow on? even though it overshot the DP by a bit? clear divergence there

ES ER & YM are highly correlated so for me I like ES best and YM a close second, so I monitor them both closely. The NQ sometimes has a mind of it's own and fires signals when the others don't...and can move 20 pts quickly.

tar001

11-21-2007, 09:57 PM

wow I sure am a great trader when the market is CLOSED
:D

Yeah looking at a ES 400 tick chart right now I can see how divergence plays are key, so you look for divergences first and then look for a DP? That is a different train of thought from what I normally do but i think I am going to try that on Monday
would you consider the short that I have the RED arrow on? even though it overshot the DP by a bit? clear divergence there

rrs

11-21-2007, 10:41 PM

wow that looks great
thanks for posting that and have a Happy Thanksgiving(although as I recall you are not in the US?) so I doubt you celebrate
:D

Hi Tar,

You are welcome.

I live in Oregon and I do celebrate Thanksgiving! Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family and to all the members of this forum, many of whom generously share their knowledge, experience and wisdom every day with all the users of this forum.

Sincerely,

Rama.

jay21

11-22-2007, 07:19 AM

Hi J,

Yes, MTP had a great day on the ES using the Dday.efs to filter the sigs.

I count 6 signals, 2 of which would have been ignored, and four trades. Of the four trades, there would have 1 loser, 1 very small winner, and two nice winners, both of which were DP trades - one nailing the inital LOD the other nailing the HOD.

Good stuff. Too bad I was getting chopped up over on the ER2. But such is life.

Hey Dave,

I believe I understand most of the basis for those signals you mention today for the ES - however what I am not really sure about is why you didn't get two buy signals that would have failed before that long successful DP. Wouldn't there have been two long DPs before, both look to me to include both divergence as well as turning at a DP-level...?

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!!!

d-day

11-22-2007, 11:21 AM

Hey Dave,

I believe I understand most of the basis for those signals you mention today for the ES - however what I am not really sure about is why you didn't get two buy signals that would have failed before that long successful DP. Wouldn't there have been two long DPs before, both look to me to include both divergence as well as turning at a DP-level...?

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!!!

Hi Jay,

I didn't get any auto DP signals before the manual DP I show in my chart. However, I do see that you could project a DP off the 9:39 bar. Price reached that DP at 10:30 where MTP printed a gray bar, then also at 10:33 which also printed a gray bar. 10:36 and 10:45 printed blue reversal bars; however, each blue reversal bar was entirely within the range of the 10:33 gray bar. Though I do not mention the reversal bars nearly enough (as my friend jjc reminded us all in one of his posts last week), if you were to go back through my posts, you will find that I prefer, in most such cases, to enter a trade 1 tick above a gray outside bar rather than 1 tick above a blue reversal bar if the blue reversal bar is an inside bar. 10:54 printed a potential blue reversal bar, but price did not exceed the high of that bar before first printing a blue reversal bar at 11:03on the DP projected off the 14:30 bar of 11/20 (the previous trading day). You would have been stopped into that trade during the 11:09 bar.

Now, just so you do not think I am over optimizing or using 20/20 hindsight only, take a look at my post from yesterday at 10:14:

My first swing today - going long at 744.6
I would rather we had made a more solid test of the 78.6% retrace, but I have to play the hand I'm dealt - DP with 5,3,3 divergence.

The ER2 did reach its DP projected off the 9:39 bar at 10:06 and I did enter long position there one tick above the blue reversal bar printed at 10:06a which I closed about 20 minutes later for a 10 tick loss.

I did not go long again on the ER2 until 11:06 bar based off the retest of the prior day's low - MTP gave me a blue reversal bar at the retest low at 11:03 and the candle was close enough to a doji for this 3 minute chart daytrader and I had divergence on my Dday.efs indicator.

I have a number of non-MTP based rules for entry and exit that I use making my trading decisions - e.g. non-MTP automated Fib relationships, candlesticks, chartpatterns, trendlines, failed retests of prior highs/lows and most important to me - momentum divergences. I don't have the time to completely spell out every facet of the why and wherefore and why nots of each of the trades I make or do not take, though I wish I did. For example, I enter most trades using stop orders as Steve suggests MTP users to do. There are times, however, where I will enter on a limit order. But to explain how I decide which case is which and why would take many annotated charts and a rather lengthy post here. At the moment, I don't have that kind of time :) . Who knows, maybe one of these days I'll write my own trading course on how I use MTPredictor lol.

I hope this helps.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours as well!

d-day

pegasus5

11-22-2007, 11:24 AM

Yeah looking at a ES 400 tick chart right now I can see how divergence plays are key, so you look for divergences first and then look for a DP? That is a different train of thought from what I normally do but i think I am going to try that on Monday
would you consider the short that I have the RED arrow on? even though it overshot the DP by a bit? clear divergence there

I don't need a DP to take a divergence..The auto dp's just make them easier to spot.

TreeShaker

11-23-2007, 01:51 PM

Anybody here today?

tar001

11-23-2007, 09:31 PM

TreeShaker

11-24-2007, 02:13 AM

tough day today on the standard MTP setups but here was a decent trade
the ES with a 400 tick chart is nice, you can see the patterns well but don't get too many false signals like the lower tick charts(233 and 89)

Those are too fast for me. I have trouble with 1 min. charts. I thought you were just trading the YM? At the beginning of the day their was a YM 1 min. TS4 (I believe) that was good for 2.6R using the ATR. I passed on it at the time and during my review of the day I couldn't figure why. I think it was you who said that you trade best when the market is closed, well that's me too.:rolleyes:

tar001

11-24-2007, 03:06 AM

Hey
I tried just trading JUST the YM but it doesn't seem that there are enough trade setups. I was using the 400 tick chart today on the ES and NQ because Pegasus had some really nice setups on Wednesday and I wanted to see how they trade in RT. Yeah the 1 minute charts and the tick charts are fast but you get way more trading opportunities with them. does anyone here JUST trade off a 3 and 5 minute? it doesn't seem to me that there are enough trades with them? even if you scroll back in your chart history you wont see enough to day trade and be profitable? am I wrong about that?

Those are too fast for me. I have trouble with 1 min. charts. I thought you were just trading the YM? At the beginning of the day their was a YM 1 min. TS4 (I believe) that was good for 2.6R using the ATR. I passed on it at the time and during my review of the day I couldn't figure why. I think it was you who said that you trade best when the market is closed, well that's me too.:rolleyes:

d-day

11-24-2007, 04:31 PM

From November 12, 2007:

My first day of ONLY watching the Dow, beginners luck??:D

From November 22, 2007

Hey
I tried just trading JUST the YM but it doesn't seem that there are enough trade setups ... even if you scroll back in your chart history you wont see enough to day trade and be profitable? am I wrong about that?

LOL - A whole 10 days! That is some dedication and perseverance! :rolleyes: lol

I'll bet Qitrader has no problem "finding enough set-ups" to be profitable trading the YM only.

Too too funny :D

Try to use bar replay rather than merely "scroll[ing] back in your chart history". You will no doubt find trades that you would have taken, both losers and winners, that no longer appear on the chart as an MTP signal. And scrolling through will not necessarily highlight the any DP trades that set-up through the course of a week.

d-day

11-24-2007, 04:37 PM

I don't need a DP to take a divergence..The auto dp's just make them easier to spot.

Amen, Brother D, amen.

tar001

11-24-2007, 05:58 PM

not really sure why thats funny, everyones trading style is different. For ME there are not enough good patterns or trade setups on the YM. If there are for others thats great.

From November 12, 2007:

From November 22, 2007

LOL - A whole 10 days! That is some dedication and perseverance! :rolleyes: lol

I'll bet Qitrader has no problem "finding enough set-ups" to be profitable trading the YM only.

Too too funny :D

Try to use bar replay rather than merely "scroll[ing] back in your chart history". You will no doubt find trades that you would have taken, both losers and winners, that no longer appear on the chart as an MTP signal. And scrolling through will not necessarily highlight the any DP trades that set-up through the course of a week.

jjc

11-24-2007, 06:04 PM

Dave

Your Dday.efs was spot-on Friday

j

Amen, Brother ,amen.

d-day

11-24-2007, 06:45 PM

not really sure why thats funny, everyones trading style is different. For ME there are not enough good patterns or trade setups on the YM. If there are for others thats great.

If you're still doing this a year from now, and if you are at that time consistently profitable, week after week (and I do hope that will indeed be the case), you will then understand exactly why that is so funny.;)

Be well,

d-day

d-day

11-25-2007, 10:58 AM

Dave

Your Dday.efs was spot-on Friday

j

It stayed long all day and called the top pretty well, so I was pleased.

d-day

11-25-2007, 11:23 AM

It stayed long all day and called the top pretty well, so I was pleased.

By the way, I've had few folks email asking how they could have gotten long the ER2 on Friday. I was in spectator mode myselfand not trading at all on Friday, but had I been in trader mode and on my toes, I'd like to think that this is how I would have played it: The ER2 gapped open. On gaps, I look for a pullback that retraces either at least 61.8% from the most recent swing low to the high before the pullback or 78.6% of the gap measured from the high of the last day-session bar of the previous day. On friday, the 61.8% retrace was 742.82 and the 78.6% was 744.94. At 9:51 price pulled back to 744.7. I then look for my MA's. I like to see support at either the 34EMA or the 50 SMA basis the 3 minute chart. On Friday, the 744.7 was .o4 above the 34 EMA, which is close enough so long as I get the next condition - I need MTP to show me a blue reversal bar.

On a normal day, that would have been what I call a "sweet spot set-up."

1) I have gap open, which is a form of impulse, i.e. a movement suggesting the direction the short-term trend will take.

2) That gap has not been filled within the first 15 minutes - and here I follow Victor "Trader Vic" Sperandeo - if a gap is not filled within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell, assume taht it will not be filled at least that morning, and probably not that session. This doesn't mean that gaps do not get filled after that point, but the odds highly favor a trend day when the gap is not filled or substantially so by 9:45 AM.

3) I have a pullback to an important fib level

4) I have a pullback to an important structural support/MA level

5) MTPredictor gives me the appropriate colored reversal bar at that nexus of fib and structural support.

I know jjc has mentioned the colred reversal bars in recent posts, and I know many MTP'ers also trade a few non-MTP set-ups, e.g. double top failures, Trader Vic 2B's, Wykoff spring set-ups, etc., and those MTP colored reversal bars are a great confirming/non-confirming indicator, in my opinion.

jjc

11-26-2007, 10:53 AM

Snagged 4 points at the open :)

j

TreeShaker

11-26-2007, 01:16 PM

By the way, I've had few folks email asking how they could have gotten long the ER2 on Friday. I was in spectator mode myselfand not trading at all on Friday, but had I been in trader mode and on my toes, I'd like to think that this is how I would have played it: The ER2 gapped open. On gaps, I look for a pullback that retraces either at least 61.8% from the most recent swing low to the high before the pullback or 78.6% of the gap measured from the high of the last day-session bar of the previous day. On friday, the 61.8% retrace was 742.82 and the 78.6% was 744.94. At 9:51 price pulled back to 744.7. I then look for my MA's. I like to see support at either the 34EMA or the 50 SMA basis the 3 minute chart. On Friday, the 744.7 was .o4 above the 34 EMA, which is close enough so long as I get the next condition - I need MTP to show me a blue reversal bar.

On a normal day, that would have been what I call a "sweet spot set-up."

1) I have gap open, which is a form of impulse, i.e. a movement suggesting the direction the short-term trend will take.

2) That gap has not been filled within the first 15 minutes - and here I follow Victor "Trader Vic" Sperandeo - if a gap is not filled within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell, assume taht it will not be filled at least that morning, and probably not that session. This doesn't mean that gaps do not get filled after that point, but the odds highly favor a trend day when the gap is not filled or substantially so by 9:45 AM.

3) I have a pullback to an important fib level

4) I have a pullback to an important structural support/MA level

5) MTPredictor gives me the appropriate colored reversal bar at that nexus of fib and structural support.

I know jjc has mentioned the colred reversal bars in recent posts, and I know many MTP'ers also trade a few non-MTP set-ups, e.g. double top failures, Trader Vic 2B's, Wykoff spring set-ups, etc., and those MTP colored reversal bars are a great confirming/non-confirming indicator, in my opinion.

David,
I was going over your post and I can't figure out where you got you fib from because Thurs was flat as a pancake and I can't see how you get the listed 61.8 and 78.6 where you said it was. A chart for the ignorant would be cool:cool: or more detail on your meas. points.
Thanks for all of your instructive post.

G Fryer

11-26-2007, 01:29 PM

David,
I was going over your post and I can't figure out where you got you fib from because Thurs was flat as a pancake and I can't see how you get the listed 61.8 and 78.6 where you said it was. A chart for the ignorant would be cool:cool: or more detail on your meas. points.
Thanks for all of your instructive post.

Thursday was a holiday in the US, so markets were closed. DDay is referring to the swing low to high from Wednesday.

Gillian

TreeShaker

11-26-2007, 01:52 PM

Thursday was a holiday in the US, so markets were closed. DDay is referring to the swing low to high from Wednesday.

Gillian

You are absolutely correct and I should have picked up on that, except that I have a whole bunch of bars for Thurs. and didn't think about the holiday. I wonder where all those bars come from when the market is closed?:eek:

G Fryer

11-26-2007, 02:12 PM

You are absolutely correct and I should have picked up on that, except that I have a whole bunch of bars for Thurs. and didn't think about the holiday. I wonder where all those bars come from when the market is closed?:eek:

After hours trading?

G

jjc

11-26-2007, 02:49 PM

I dont trade the ER much but I couldnt help myself on trading this one

j

TreeShaker

11-26-2007, 04:05 PM

I dont trade the ER much but I couldnt help myself on trading this one

j

Somebody has got to go to the bank, it might as well be you.:)

jjc

11-26-2007, 04:59 PM

This short was a beauty - and news of Goldman Sach's downgrade of Citigroup didnt hurt either :)

j

Steve Griffiths

11-26-2007, 05:37 PM

Hi Everybody,

I hope you all remembered about the DP "trend continuation" trade today ?

I ask because this would have bagged a very nice +6.7R profit on the 5min YM which would have more than made up for the 2 (small) -1R losses earlier.....

This DP continuation is a great trade and will normally get you in whenever a market makes a strong move like this one today.....:)

Steve

d-day

11-26-2007, 06:42 PM

I hope you all remembered about the DP "trend continuation" trade today?

I ask because this would have bagged a very nice +6.7R profit on the 5min YM which would have more than made up for the 2 (small) -1R losses earlier.....

This DP continuation is a great trade and will normally get you in whenever a market makes a strong move like this one today.....:)

Steve

Hi Steve,

I typically do not trade the DP Trend continuation set-up, largely because I so often already am positioned in the direction of the "continuation trade" that I'm not looking for it.

My trade of the day was a standard DP short sale on the 3 minute NQ. As you can see, I had screaming divergence on both my Dday and the STF, so any MTP'er trading the NQ 3 minute, which seems to be nearly everyone lol, should have been in on this trade. This also shows why I do not use the initial R/R to qualify a trade. This DP had an inital R/R of only 1.2R, but MOC yielded 9+R.

So easy even a daveman can do it. ;)

Have a good night,

d-day

PS I know the NQ fell .50 point (2 ticks) short of the DP, and usually I won't take a trade unless the DP is touched. However, when you see such strong divergence (what I call screaming divergence) and you get a red reversal bar that takes out the low of the prior bar that had the swing high, then there is nothing left to wait for - enter at the market if it starts moving too quickly, because it is high odds to make it at least to the oppossing DP.

rrs

11-26-2007, 10:51 PM

Hi Steve,

I typically do not trade the DP Trend continuation set-up, largely because I so often already am positioned in the direction of the "continuation trade" that I'm not looking for it.

My trade of the day was a standard DP short sale on the 3 minute NQ. As you can see, I had screaming divergence on both my Dday and the STF, so any MTP'er trading the NQ 3 minute, which seems to be nearly everyone lol, should have been in on this trade. This also shows why I do not use the initial R/R to qualify a trade. This DP had an inital R/R of only 1.2R, but MOC yielded 9+R.

So easy even a daveman can do it. ;)

Have a good night,

d-day

PS I know the NQ fell .50 point (2 ticks) short of the DP, and usually I won't take a trade unless the DP is touched. However, when you see such strong divergence (what I call screaming divergence) and you get a red reversal bar that takes out the low of the prior bar that had the swing high, then there is nothing left to wait for - enter at the market if it starts moving too quickly, because it is high odds to make it at least to the oppossing DP.

Hi David,

In addition to all the excellent points you mention in your message that support this trade setup, another important feature is the "triple (stochastic) divergence" that is clearly shown in the chart I am attaching to this message. The stochastic oscillator in your second chart (part of your new indicator setup) also shows the same feature.

This particular divergence pattern was originally described by George Lane (you can see examples of this setup in his course manual), and comes in two forms:

1) in the first and the strongest of the two forms, the stochastic peak 2 is lower than 1 and the peak 3 is lower than 2 (Peak1 > Peak2 > Peak3)

2) in the second pattern the second peak is lower than the first and the third but, the third peak is lower than the first (Peak1 > Peak3 > Peak2). This is the type shown in the attached chart.

You may already know about the triple stochastic divergence. I thought I will add a quick note on this setup since it is one of the best setups in terms of probability of success and the amount of profit generated.

Sincerely,

Rama.

jay21

11-27-2007, 09:42 AM

Hi Jay,

I didn't get any auto DP signals before the manual DP I show in my chart. However, I do see that you could project a DP off the 9:39 bar. Price reached that DP at 10:30 where MTP printed a gray bar, then also at 10:33 which also printed a gray bar. 10:36 and 10:45 printed blue reversal bars; however, each blue reversal bar was entirely within the range of the 10:33 gray bar. Though I do not mention the reversal bars nearly enough (as my friend jjc reminded us all in one of his posts last week), if you were to go back through my posts, you will find that I prefer, in most such cases, to enter a trade 1 tick above a gray outside bar rather than 1 tick above a blue reversal bar if the blue reversal bar is an inside bar. 10:54 printed a potential blue reversal bar, but price did not exceed the high of that bar before first printing a blue reversal bar at 11:03on the DP projected off the 14:30 bar of 11/20 (the previous trading day). You would have been stopped into that trade during the 11:09 bar.

Now, just so you do not think I am over optimizing or using 20/20 hindsight only, take a look at my post from yesterday at 10:14:

The ER2 did reach its DP projected off the 9:39 bar at 10:06 and I did enter long position there one tick above the blue reversal bar printed at 10:06a which I closed about 20 minutes later for a 10 tick loss.

I did not go long again on the ER2 until 11:06 bar based off the retest of the prior day's low - MTP gave me a blue reversal bar at the retest low at 11:03 and the candle was close enough to a doji for this 3 minute chart daytrader and I had divergence on my Dday.efs indicator.

I have a number of non-MTP based rules for entry and exit that I use making my trading decisions - e.g. non-MTP automated Fib relationships, candlesticks, chartpatterns, trendlines, failed retests of prior highs/lows and most important to me - momentum divergences. I don't have the time to completely spell out every facet of the why and wherefore and why nots of each of the trades I make or do not take, though I wish I did. For example, I enter most trades using stop orders as Steve suggests MTP users to do. There are times, however, where I will enter on a limit order. But to explain how I decide which case is which and why would take many annotated charts and a rather lengthy post here. At the moment, I don't have that kind of time :) . Who knows, maybe one of these days I'll write my own trading course on how I use MTPredictor lol.

I hope this helps.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours as well!

d-day

Hey Dave - thanks a lot for this (sorry it took some time to answer - been travelling over the weekend without access to a PC...)!!

This is real helpful - and let me tell you I would be the first one to buy it if you decide to write that book...:)

Another thing that I would love to learn from you - is how you deal with DP-areas - as I understand it you are fine with entering trades on bars that have multiple closes beyond the DP area, and also possibly when there is no DP-area in MTP-terms - is this correct - how far beyond the DP-area will you consider taking trades when there is divergence?

d-day

11-27-2007, 11:44 AM

d-day

11-27-2007, 11:50 AM

There is a TS2 sell on the 3 minute NQ right now (10:39 EST) that sure looks nice, but all my momo measures are confirming the new high, so for now I'll pass. What I would like to see is the NQ decline a bit from here and then reverse to make a higher high, perhaps in the vicinity of the typical Wave C target, and then flash a TS there with momentum divergence into the new high.

Well if anyone did take that short it would have made quick work of you - unfortunately the inital decline was very shallow and it may not have been enough to generate the divergence I'd like to see as we tread higher. I'm looking to 2035.50, yesterday afternoon's 14:30 EST pivot high to give me a clue as to whether we trend higher through the morning or if we get a mid-day decline.

MTP is flashing a TS3 now but no red reversal bar.

d-day

11-27-2007, 11:55 AM

MTP is flashing a TS3 now but no red reversal bar.

TS4 flashing now - but no divergence between the A peak and the C peak. There is slight momo divergence into the C gigh along the BC swing but those 3 minute bars are looking rather impulsive, and the 34 EMA has crossed above a now rising 50 SMA. I will likely stand aside on any short here as well. Too bad he market declined into that gap filling 78.6% retracement without a bounce during the decline to give us a DP divergence near the LOD.

Larry22

11-27-2007, 11:55 AM

Well if anyone did take that short it would have made quick work of you - unfortunately the inital decline was very shallow and it may not have been enough to generate the divergence I'd like to see as we tread higher. I'm looking to 2035.50, yesterday afternoon's 14:30 EST pivot high to give me a clue as to whether we trend higher through the morning or if we get a mid-day decline.

MTP is flashing a TS3 now but no red reversal bar.

I was more a buyer this morning than a seller as a matter of fact I bought some ER2 at the average of 737 and I just sold my last one now, because I will be away from my PC for a while.

I may be wrong but we sure are at some important levels to buy on a daily basis, I will post possible counts later on.

d-day

11-27-2007, 12:09 PM

TS4 flashing now - but no divergence between the A peak and the C peak. There is slight momo divergence into the C gigh along the BC swing but those 3 minute bars are looking rather impulsive, and the 34 EMA has crossed above a now rising 50 SMA. I will likely stand aside on any short here as well.

Well, following what momo is telling us has saved us from being down -2R. We are still flashing a TS4. Momo on my 5,3,3 has turned divergent on the rise in this BC swing. So if I were to take this short, here is where I would be tempted to do so - with a sell stop at 2035.25 and a 2038.5 stop loss. However, I am standing down as my Dday indicator is telling me that tough we get a pullback here, there is still more upside likely.

But in the end, who knows?

d-day

11-27-2007, 12:22 PM

Well, following what momo is telling us has saved us from being down -2R. We are still flashing a TS4. Momo on my 5,3,3 has turned divergent on the rise in this BC swing. So if I were to take this short, here is where I would be tempted to do so - with a sell stop at 2035.25 and a 2038.5 stop loss.

2028.75 would be a 2R profit, and NQ traded as low as 2028. I'm not in this one, but if I were, I would certainly have moved my stop loss close to breakeven. I typically will take 1/2 off on a 2R limit if I do not have divergences across the board, which I do not have in this case. So a 2028.75 buy limit on 1/2 and at that point I could leave the initial stop ride on the second half and I could then do no worse than +.5R with the chance for much more.

Too bad I didn't take this trade +1/2R is better than nothing lol.

But you never know.

d-day

11-27-2007, 12:44 PM

d-day

11-27-2007, 12:46 PM

I have to run, but it looks to me as though we are setting up for DP short sales nearly across the board on the 3 minute charts. I'm tempted to throw an order in with my stop loss in place and let he chips fall where they may.

selling NQ 2036 stop loss 2040.25 I hope she's trading at 1980 by the time I get back lol

Have a good day

Steve Griffiths

11-27-2007, 01:25 PM

Yep, a nice DP sell on the 3min ES as well :)

Steve

jjc

11-27-2007, 01:49 PM

selling NQ 2036 stop loss 2040.25 I hope she's trading at 1980 by the time I get back lol

Have a good day

Dave

I took this TS3 cuz it had good R/R but I lost cuz I didnt have good Dday.efs divergence.

Now, why would I go and do that? :mad:

j

TreeShaker

11-27-2007, 02:37 PM

Dave

I took this TS3 cuz it had good R/R but I lost cuz I didnt have good Dday.efs divergence.

Now, why would I go and do that? :mad:

j

Your greed gland got the best of you. LOL:p

d-day

11-27-2007, 02:42 PM

selling NQ 2036 stop loss 2040.25 I hope she's trading at 1980 by the time I get back lol

Have a good day

I just got back in - I had sold 4 contracts and 2 were limited out at 2027.5 for +2R and I just snuck out of the last 2 at 233 for about +.7R on that 1/2.

Not great, but not bad - I'll take it.

d-day

11-27-2007, 02:53 PM

Dave

I took this TS3 cuz it had good R/R but I lost cuz I didnt have good Dday.efs divergence.

Now, why would I go and do that? :mad:

j

I have no idea why you would have taken that trade there, j, maybe you were just a bit impatient for more MTPmoolah! I hope you took the ES DP short for a nice quick 4 points or so.

d-day

11-27-2007, 02:54 PM

I just got back in - I had sold 4 contracts and 2 were limited out at 2027.5 for +2R and I just snuck out of the last 2 at 233 for about +.7R on that 1/2.

Not great, but not bad - I'll take it.

Of course, a mere moments after my exit the NQ drops a quick 10 points.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggg ggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

d-day

11-27-2007, 03:42 PM

I just got back in - I had sold 4 contracts and 2 were limited out at 2027.5 for +2R and I just snuck out of the last 2 at 233 for about +.7R on that 1/2.

Not great, but not bad - I'll take it.

That'll teach me to get back in 2 hours sooner than I had planned. Sure wish I was still short 1/2 my position. That NQ DP short has gone from "not bad" straight to "Great" without me lol.

Anyone else trading today?

d-day

11-27-2007, 03:52 PM

ER2 Buy stop 738.9 - DP Divergence long trade

Filled - initial stop 736.3

Update: Here is where I need to use the power of positive thinking lol

d-day

11-27-2007, 04:24 PM

ER2 Buy stop 738.9 - DP Divergence long trade

Filled - initial stop 736.3

Update: Here is where I need to use the power of positive thinking lol

The power of positive thinking, indeed!

Of course, MTP DP's and my trusty Dday.efs showing divergence didn't hurt either.

The upper green line is my 2R target at the immediate swing low prior to the sell off.

d-day

11-27-2007, 04:38 PM

The power of positive thinking, indeed!

Of course, MTP DP's and my trusty Dday.efs showing divergence didn't hurt either.

Hit my 2R target.

I'm done for the day. Good night to all.

d

TreeShaker

11-27-2007, 05:04 PM

d-day

11-27-2007, 06:43 PM

This question is for the successful traders on the forum. I noticed that most post risk $400. I assume that's the typical account of $20K with 2% risk. I'm wondering why I don't see larger risk amounts, indicating a larger accounts. Do you guys bleed off the profit and keep the account at $20K. Wouldn't an account that grew to say $50K with a risk of $1K do much better? :D I haven't had the problem of a growing account so I don't know the answer. :rolleyes:

I wouldn't assume that everyone here is risking 2% of equity/trade. $400 is a $$ amount many seem to become comfortable with losing if they are wrong. It is also an amount that will enable participation with at least 1 contract in most trade set-ups. This dollar amount represents is a 1% risk for someone with a 40K account, and it is .66% of someone with a 60k account and it is .4% of a 100k acount. I know a few guys here who trade 6 figure equities and risk no more than $500, or .5%/trade.

If I am ever so fortunate to be sitting on a 6 figure equity, I would hope that I would excerisie the same good judgement and restraint as those folks.

d-day

11-27-2007, 07:57 PM

Hi David,

In addition to all the excellent points you mention in your message that support this trade setup, another important feature is the "triple (stochastic) divergence" that is clearly shown in the chart I am attaching to this message. The stochastic oscillator in your second chart (part of your new indicator setup) also shows the same feature.

This particular divergence pattern was originally described by George Lane (you can see examples of this setup in his course manual), and comes in two forms:

1) in the first and the strongest of the two forms, the stochastic peak 2 is lower than 1 and the peak 3 is lower than 2 (Peak1 > Peak2 > Peak3)

2) in the second pattern the second peak is lower than the first and the third but, the third peak is lower than the first (Peak1 > Peak3 > Peak2). This is the type shown in the attached chart.

You may already know about the triple stochastic divergence. I thought I will add a quick note on this setup since it is one of the best setups in terms of probability of success and the amount of profit generated.

Sincerely,

Rama.

Hi Rama,

Thank you for this. In one of George Lane's lectures, he actually refers to scenario two as the "classic" divergence pattern, where price makes three successive highs/lows while the momentum in peak/trough two falls short of the momentum exhibited in peak/trough one, and the momentum achieved in peak/trough three exceeds peak two but falls short of the momentum reached in peak one.

Good stuff, and thank you again for this valuable information,

Thank you,

d-day

jjc

11-27-2007, 08:30 PM

Good stuff, and thank you again for this valuable information,

Dave

If you write an ebook I will buy it !

Larry22

11-27-2007, 10:23 PM

I was more a buyer this morning than a seller as a matter of fact I bought some ER2 at the average of 737 and I just sold my last one now, because I will be away from my PC for a while.

I may be wrong but we sure are at some important levels to buy on a daily basis, I will post possible counts later on.

Please see the attached files, the first one is ER2 Daily, I was waiting for that new low for a while A wave = C wave.

I was expecting some kind of rally from that low point, that is why I was a buyer this morning especially with that gap up, so I waited patiently until the market gave me a nice entry point on the 3 min (abc down), I knew that the market had to do at least an abc up before any decline. :D

Unfortunately I couldn't play the other TS4 as I was away but I sure wouldn't have missed it, perfect play with divergence as illustrated earlier by david d.

Well traded again david. :)

rrs

11-28-2007, 01:29 AM

Hi Rama,

Thank you for this. In one of George Lane's lectures, he actually refers to scenario two as the "classic" divergence pattern, where price makes three successive highs/lows while the momentum in peak/trough two falls short of the momentum exhibited in peak/trough one, and the momentum achieved in peak/trough three exceeds peak two but falls short of the momentum reached in peak one.

Good stuff, and thank you again for this valuable information,

Thank you,

d-day

Hi David,

You are welcome!

I hope you continue to find these patterns, and before you know it your bank manager may be calling you to tell you that you are ready for retirement and life of leisure in an exotic island!:)

Sincerely,

Rama.

d-day

11-28-2007, 08:03 AM

Hey Dave - thanks a lot for this (sorry it took some time to answer - been travelling over the weekend without access to a PC...)!!

This is real helpful - and let me tell you I would be the first one to buy it if you decide to write that book...:)

Another thing that I would love to learn from you - is how you deal with DP-areas - as I understand it you are fine with entering trades on bars that have multiple closes beyond the DP area, and also possibly when there is no DP-area in MTP-terms - is this correct - how far beyond the DP-area will you consider taking trades when there is divergence?

Hi Jay,

To quote, or at least attempt to quote our fellow MTP'er Pegasus, "I don't need a DP to take a divergence trade. The DP just makes them easier to see."

The DP points to a price zone where odds of a price reversal are higher than normal. In the end, I trade momentum and price action, not DP's. That is why I am not a fan of DP Trend Continuation Trades - I have often had profitable trades that would have been losers had I traded them as continuation trades rather than as trend reversal, i.e. traditional DP trades. Therefore, I really do not have a rule concerning how far beyond a DP price may go before invalidating a set-up. I do, however, like to see price actually touch a DP before taking the trade, unless momentum is so wildly divergent as to be screaming at me to take the trade.

Thank you,

d-day

jjc

11-28-2007, 09:24 AM

Dave,

I remember you telling me that you have a plan when you trade. That you wait for the market to come to you.

If you intend to sell it's because you feel the buyers might become sellers and vis a vis for buying the market. What you said about there being a 'shock and awe' in the market now makes more sense to me. I see now that your Dday.efs helps with that decision making.

In this chart of the ER you said for me to be patient because in the longer term (as noted by the maroon arrow) the market was getting exhausted and now you needed to confirm the 'shock and awe' with the Dday.efs by it giving a sell signal (as noted by the red arrow) You said the 'shock and awe' can sometimes be spotted by the lime colored line hitting the bottom blue line and then hitting the top blue line. Then it's was a matter of waiting for the divergence of the lime colored line to price.

Very impressive

j

jay21

11-28-2007, 11:30 AM

Hi Jay,

To quote, or at least attempt to quote our fellow MTP'er Pegasus, "I don't need a DP to take a divergence trade. The DP just makes them easier to see."

The DP points to a price zone where odds of a price reversal are higher than normal. In the end, I trade momentum and price action, not DP's. That is why I am not a fan of DP Trend Continuation Trades - I have often had profitable trades that would have been losers had I traded them as continuation trades rather than as trend reversal, i.e. traditional DP trades. Therefore, I really do not have a rule concerning how far beyond a DP price may go before invalidating a set-up. I do, however, like to see price actually touch a DP before taking the trade, unless momentum is so wildly divergent as to be screaming at me to take the trade.

Thank you,

d-day

Thanks Dave!

So you will take divergence trades far beyond the DP-area as long as there is still divergence there. This is really very interesting as it is very different from what I tend to do myself. I trade when the red bar has reached within half a DP-range from the DP-area, and never if there are two closing bars beyond the DP-area as per traditional MTP recommendations.

But I do see the rationale. Just to make sure I understand - if we look at an example, the 3-min ES opening the day before yesterday, 112607 (I tend to trade ES mostly) - would you have shorted that second opportunity at a divergence short from the 10.00 EST red bar?

It would obviously had been a great trade...:D

Cheers man!!

Biggo

11-28-2007, 12:36 PM

Steve Griffiths

11-28-2007, 12:44 PM

d-day

11-28-2007, 01:43 PM

if we look at an example, the 3-min ES opening the day before yesterday, 112607 (I tend to trade ES mostly) - would you have shorted that second opportunity at a divergence short from the 10.00 EST red bar?

It would obviously had been a great trade...:D

Cheers man!!

Any trade into a DP within the first 1-60 minutes of trading is worth a shot or two or three (but no more than three for me).

I also do not necessarily require divergence for a DP trade if it occurs within the first hour of trading (see Steve's training video on the Opening DP trade for more info on that).

On the ES trade in question, not only were we at a DP within the first hour, but we did get divergence on the 5,3,3 stochastic, so had I been an ES trader, I would have shorted the ES there. What I can't say is whether that would have been a second or third attempt. That is, I may already have been down -1R or -2R basis DP losses on the 9:30 bar and the 9:48 bar. Since I was not following the ES, I cannot honestly say whether I would have taken only the third DP or if I would have traded all three. I would like to think that I was brilliant and somehow knew to skip the first two and then pounced on the third, but I suspect that I would have been very quickly down at least -1R, if not -2R, before hitting the DP Jackpot for that +12R trade.

jjc

11-28-2007, 01:56 PM

d-day

11-28-2007, 02:09 PM

Hi All

For all those who were in the advanced trading webinar this morning latest on potential trade on YM is at 6R using ATR stop...
Worth looking at recording for those who missed it..
I didnt take the trade as was concentrating on the webinar LOL :eek:
Dont you just hate it when that happens !!!!!

Cheers

Phil:)

Congrats Biggo - great trade! I'm with j on this - I just have not found much success with the idea of a DP continuation trade.

Here's how I approached the ER2 today - it's not quite as fancy as your trade. I bought me some ER2 on what I call a mini-BullFlag, and then I bought some more at the next one. Just a little chart pattern that has served me very very well over time. Though we haven't heard anything from them, I would bet that QiTrader, Todd, and Pegasus may very well be or at least at some point been long on these little flags. A bit old-fashioned, I'll admit. But sometimes the oldies really are goodies;) I stopped out at 764.5 and reversed to short at that price with my stop at 767. We'll see how that works out - I'm targeting the DP below near 761.4 or so.

UPDATE: Stopped out - but trying again with a sell stop at 766.6 - stop loss is 769

Rob E

11-28-2007, 03:04 PM

Nice little setup on the NQ finally reaching 1st target @ 6.1R and climbing!!!

d-day

11-28-2007, 03:05 PM

UPDATE: Stopped out - but trying again with a sell stop at 766.6 - stop loss is 769

Well I've given a little more back on that one ... I should have bailed once my divergence were busted on the 13:33 EST bar but I got stubborn.

These one way days are tough on me - I know I should stay in longer, but, as the saying goes, easier said than done.

5,3,3 stoch divergences starting to form again on the ER2 - sell stop at 768.5 for one more try before I shut her down for the day.

That new high above 770.4 is enough for me to pull my order and wait for something else. Right now it loks like you can't go wrong so longs as you're long.

TreeShaker

11-28-2007, 03:24 PM

d-day

11-28-2007, 03:53 PM

DD it looks like we missed the boat on the ER2. :( On the 2 min. chart @ 1012 PST I had a TS3, not close enough to WPT and no diver to recommend it, but it went just the same and is still going to the tune of 4.1 at the ATR.

Hi TimberQuaker,

I don't trade off the 2 minute, but you are right, that TS3 was a beauty. The Dday.efs actually caught bullish divergence that spelled out a high probability of success for that trade.

I was long from early on and just played it "too clever by half" as they say, and I got out too early started shorting. This is the hardest type of day for me to trade. I am much better at trading those days were the market makes swings from pivot high to pivot low. These runaway trend days are tough if you don't let your trade ride the day out. Thankfully swing days are about 90% of the time or I'd never be able to do this trading thing well ;) . My use of stochastics is based on swing days not trend days, and the Dday.efs is built specifically for identifying these pivots as they unfold. Neither works well those 2 or 3 days/month when the market decides to celebrate exhuberantly or panic ferociously. On those days the most important piece of equipment is your head, and today mine was a bit defective lol.

PS And just to be clear, I did not take the trade depicted in the attached chart pic.

TreeShaker

11-28-2007, 04:07 PM

DD are you in the ER2 3 TS2 @ 1148 PST? The diver looked flat but the signal was @ the WPT and STF was blue.

d-day

11-28-2007, 04:27 PM

PS And just to be clear, I did not take the trade depicted in the attached chart pic.

I did, however, take the TS2 on the 3 minute with 5,3,3 divergence and just for kicks I checked the 2 minute and the Dday.efs caught the divergence, even though the TS that was there ghosted itself.

d-day

11-28-2007, 04:31 PM

DD are you in the ER2 3 TS2 @ 1148 PST? The diver looked flat but the signal was @ the WPT and STF was blue.

What do you mean "the diver was flat"?

TreeShaker

11-28-2007, 04:32 PM

What do you mean "the diver was flat"?

I mean the Stockastics was flat. Are you in it? I had 2 lots, closed 1 at first target and have a stop @ 771.5 for the second. I had -3R and this one will redem me to at least +1R.

d-day

11-28-2007, 04:44 PM

I mean the Stochastics was flat.

5,3,3 at 14:30 EST = 12.19 Price Low = 767.6

5,3,3 at 14:51 EST = 12.51 Price swing low = 765.5

Divergence is divergence in my opinion ... I try not to split hairs by making it a matter of degree. It was not "Screaming Divergence", but price made, relatively speaking, a much lower low while stochastics not only held its ground but struck a slightly higher low.

And after getting my but kicked on 2 shorts I was ready to go long lol.

TreeShaker

11-28-2007, 04:46 PM

I just got stopped out so I'm done for the day. That's 3 days in a row profit for me. I'm excited because I was down 32.3 R so that's a nice change of events.:D

d-day

11-28-2007, 04:46 PM

I mean the Stochastics was flat. Are you in it? I had 2 lots, closed 1 at first target and have a stop @ 771.5 for the second. I had -3R and this one will redem me to at least +1R.

Congratulations! Nice trading!

Yes, I was in it - I limited out entirely at 771 even.

d-day

11-28-2007, 04:48 PM

That's 3 days in a row profit for me. I'm excited because I was down 32.3 R so that's a nice change of events.:D

Holy Shmokes:eek: !

Well my hat is off to you for sticking with this and battling your way back.

How much of that -32R nut have you recovered so far?

Biggo

11-28-2007, 05:01 PM

Biggo

Congrats on your continuation trade !

Every time I try that trade I'm a bagholder ( I'm the only one that buys and are left holding the bag) :)

Congrats again...wish I could figure out why it doesn't work for me.

j

Hi J & D Day

That trade just got stopped out for a 14R win !!!!!
As I said earlier I was not in it as by the time we finished talking about it live on the webinar it was already up 1R so I didnt want to chase a trade.
As Steve pointed out the good thing about these Continuation trades is that you know pretty much right away if going to work out or not.

Anyway I learnt some good point from todays webinar so thanks steve :)

Phil

TreeShaker

11-28-2007, 05:08 PM

Holy Shmokes:eek: !

Well my hat is off to you for sticking with this and battling your way back.

How much of that -32R nut have you recovered so far?

I'm at -26.3, so that was a gain of 6.1 in 3 days. I have to confess that the loss was part live and part paper. I had to go to paper to save my marriage. LOL:D I kept the count though so I could tell where I was in the trading game. I keep praying for direction and I keep getting great post from everyone. I won't quit, I know I can do this. If I finish off this week on a positive note I will go back to live, so I expect to be live next week.

Thanks to everyone that has been so generous with their knowledge.

jjc

11-28-2007, 06:38 PM

Hi J & D Day

That trade just got stopped out for a 14R win !!!!! Phil

Nice Trade Biggo

For me Dave's Dday.efs is so simple and it kept you long all D-day today :) .

j

d-day

11-28-2007, 07:53 PM

Nice Trade Biggo

For me Dave's Dday.efs is so simple and it kept you long all D-day today :) .

j

If only I had listened to it! Look at those rising bottoms on the blue line while the histogram was staying long and strong. I did finally listen to it when I took the TS2 on the ER2 this afternoon. But the TS2 made it easy for me to stop looking for sell signals. Since the Dday wasn't flashing sell divergences, and I was chomping at tthe bit to go short, I focused on the 5,3,3 stochastic to get sell signals. I kept "seeing" them, but they just weren't there.

Here's a chart of the daily $indu - MTP TS4 caught the 8/16 low and right now we are at an MTP DP. In both cases we got bullish divergences on the Dday.efs.

The first one gave us a 1600 point rally. We are only a bit over 500 points into this rally - could we have another 1100 Dow Points in front of us? Who knows?

rrs

11-28-2007, 11:30 PM

I'm with j on this - I just have not found much success with the idea of a DP continuation trade.

Hi David,

Here is an idea you may wish to test to see if it improves your odds of success with the DP continuation trades: as the attached images show, I often look at the STF and ADX/DMI when the price is at a DP level to see if trend strength is strong enough to support the DP continuation trade setup. The attached images illustrate the last two DP continuation trades.

(Steve, of course, highlighted both these setups here in the forum. In order to keep my regular MTP charts visually clean and simple, I have a separate MTP chart template with ADX/DMI as an additional indicator. Use of ADX/DMI as a potential filter for DP continuation trade is one of the ideas I am currently testing. Since you are an independent thinker who enjoys testing new ideas, I thought you may want to take a look at this concept).

Sincerely,

Rama.

d-day

11-29-2007, 12:00 AM

Hi David,

Here is an idea you may wish to test to see if it improves your odds of success with the DP continuation trades: as the attached images show, I often look at the STF and ADX/DMI when the price is at a DP level to see if trend strength is strong enough to support the DP continuation trade setup. The attached images illustrate the last two DP continuation trades ...
Use of ADX/DMI as a potential filter for DP continuation trade is one of the ideas I am currently testing. Since you are an independent thinker who enjoys testing new ideas, I thought you may want to take a look at this concept).

Sincerely,

Rama.

Hi Rama,

Thank you for this. I may see some difficulty with using AD/DMI in this situation. Perhaps you could clear it up for me. Isn't the fact that DP's typically mark the reversal of swing of some duration going to cause the respective DMI to be dominant at those times? I like the ADX/DMI, and there are situations in which I do use it - mostly for swing/position trading on daily/weekly time frames.) For example, on your YM chart showing Steve's example from today, there was an Auto DP from the prior session where -DMI was dominant and there was a rising ADX. In my experience, that is typical of the status of ADX/DMI when price reverses at a DP.

Have you not also found this to be the case?

Respectfully, and Thank you,

d-day

rrs

11-29-2007, 02:47 AM

Hi Rama,

Thank you for this. I may see some difficulty with using AD/DMI in this situation. Perhaps you could clear it up for me. Isn't the fact that DP's typically mark the reversal of swing of some duration going to cause the respective DMI to be dominant at those times? I like the ADX/DMI, and there are situations in which I do use it - mostly for swing/position trading on daily/weekly time frames.) For example, on your YM chart showing Steve's example from today, there was an Auto DP from the prior session where -DMI was dominant and there was a rising ADX. In my experience, that is typical of the status of ADX/DMI when price reverses at a DP.

Have you not also found this to be the case?

Respectfully, and Thank you,

d-day

Hi David,

Excellent question.

You are absolutely correct in your statement: "Isn't the fact that DP's typically mark the reversal of swing of some duration going to cause the respective DMI to be dominant at those times?"

The outcome of the interaction between a prevailing trend in price and a given DP is often quite variable. If the prevailing trend has been in existence for some time (as evidenced by the typical 3 peaks in the ADX caused by the underlying +DMI in the attached chart), it is more than likely that the given DP will cause the existing trend to reverse.

Two things to note about the trend I have marked as trend 1 in the attached chart are:

1) trend 1 has been in existence for some time

2) the third and last surge in ADX caused by the underlying +DMI was quite strong -- you can see that the significant decline in price after the auto DP trade signal took place after 12+ price bars.

After this decline and brief down trend the price resumed its upward march. This started a new, strong up trend (marked as trend 2 in the chart). This, together with other supporting features marked in my previous charts tilted the odds heavily in favor of the DP continuation trade setup Steve highlighted in his chart today.

Even though the ADX/DMI appear to send a seemingly paradoxical and confusing message on the surface, the indicator when used in combination with some quick visual analysis can be useful, at least in my humble opinion and experience. It has allowed me to judge the merit of each DP (counter trend) trade on a case by case basis and saved me from high probability losing trades. Like you, I believe in minimising the frequency of losing trades and their impact on my account by well tested, robust filters, while accepting the fact that certain number losing trades are inevitable. The statement that "Lost opportunity is better than lost capital" has an element of truth in it. We all know that it all boils down to a question of finding the right balance and it depends very much on individual trader's risk tolerance and financial goals.

The question you raise here plus your comments on how difficult it was for you to trade on trend days that you mentioned in another message you posted today go to the very heart of the problems many of the traders who trade the micro time frames -- by this I mean any time frame that is 3 min or less -- face. How does one define a stable and a tradable trend in a micro time frames? What measurement of price -- trend, momentum, and volatility or any combination of these that are necessary for profitable trading in addition to strict risk management and position sizing? Of these and many other questions on this subject, the most important and a vexing one is the question of devising a simple yet robust measure -- with low lag and smoothness -- of trend that is applicable, particularly in micro time frames. These questions came into sharp focus, certainly for me, since the arrival of violent volatility in recent weeks and months. There is lot more information on this subject that is useful in day to day trading that I will try to post here when time permits.

I certainly admire your tenacity in tackling the problem of minimising the frequency of losing trades and coming up with your own creative solution to the problem. I hope I have answered your question on ADX/DMI. I apologize for the length of this message. I thought that the questions related to trend and counter trend trades are too important to be dealt with in a brief and summary fashion.

Sincerely,

Rama.

PS A solid book on ADX is a book entitled ADXcellence by Dr. Schapp. This is a compendium of ADX/DMI patterns as they relate to every day trading -- based on some original thinking and research. The book can be found here: http://www.stockmarketstore.com/catalog/item/720973/2362242.htm. Please note that I have no financial relationship with Dr. Schapp or his company. This suggestion is purely based on the value of the knowledge I gained by reading his book.

jay21

11-29-2007, 09:50 AM

Any trade into a DP within the first 1-60 minutes of trading is worth a shot or two or three (but no more than three for me).

I also do not necessarily require divergence for a DP trade if it occurs within the first hour of trading (see Steve's training video on the Opening DP trade for more info on that).

On the ES trade in question, not only were we at a DP within the first hour, but we did get divergence on the 5,3,3 stochastic, so had I been an ES trader, I would have shorted the ES there. What I can't say is whether that would have been a second or third attempt. That is, I may already have been down -1R or -2R basis DP losses on the 9:30 bar and the 9:48 bar. Since I was not following the ES, I cannot honestly say whether I would have taken only the third DP or if I would have traded all three. I would like to think that I was brilliant and somehow knew to skip the first two and then pounced on the third, but I suspect that I would have been very quickly down at least -1R, if not -2R, before hitting the DP Jackpot for that +12R trade.

Thanks a lot Dave, makes it very clear - just a paranthesis, the way I see it the profit on that short ES would have been a little above +5R at the maximum before hitting ATR, at least me myself I always go out of a winning trade at ATR if not before. So the +12 R that you mention would obviously have been superb to get but it would never had happened to me sadly...

jay21

11-29-2007, 10:01 AM

Hi TimberQuaker,

I don't trade off the 2 minute, but you are right, that TS3 was a beauty. The Dday.efs actually caught bullish divergence that spelled out a high probability of success for that trade.

I was long from early on and just played it "too clever by half" as they say, and I got out too early started shorting. This is the hardest type of day for me to trade. I am much better at trading those days were the market makes swings from pivot high to pivot low. These runaway trend days are tough if you don't let your trade ride the day out. Thankfully swing days are about 90% of the time or I'd never be able to do this trading thing well ;) . My use of stochastics is based on swing days not trend days, and the Dday.efs is built specifically for identifying these pivots as they unfold. Neither works well those 2 or 3 days/month when the market decides to celebrate exhuberantly or panic ferociously. On those days the most important piece of equipment is your head, and today mine was a bit defective lol.

PS And just to be clear, I did not take the trade depicted in the attached chart pic.

Hey David,

I just thought I'd mention a thing that my good friend Rob E here at the Forum tought me about trends - yesterday all common trend indicators like TRIN, STF, AD/DE and others were pointing in the same direction - up - from the open of the market.

I really love your way of finding divergence trades and daily turning points - as you say for the most part it works great. But for those days where everything points clearly in the same direction like yesterday I try to stay out of trying to fade the move, because in my experience there is a great chance that we just continue in the same direction.

This however of course also means that you sometimes miss those great turning point trades that your setup is so great at finding..., but hey you can't win 'em all.:)

Cheers man,
Johan

Rob E

11-29-2007, 10:58 AM

Hey David,

I just thought I'd mention a thing that my good friend Rob E here at the Forum tought me about trends - yesterday all common trend indicators like TRIN, STF, AD/DE and others were pointing in the same direction - up - from the open of the market.

Cheers man,
Johan

I'm very pleased to see that you were on top of that observation yesterday Johan... Well Done my friend! (It's nice to know that the seeds which were planted fell upon fertile soil!!!) And yes, the TRIN, VIX and Market Breadth (i.e., all the internals) were very bullish yesterday and as such, I was in no hurry to try and fade that strength as I was looking more towards getting in on the buy side yesterday and riding that under current flow of strength. Hence the nice little 2 min. TS3 buy setup on the NQ that I pointed out.

Keep up the good work and...

May the FLOW be with you!;)

Cheers!!!

jay21

11-29-2007, 12:18 PM

I'm very pleased to see that you were on top of that observation yesterday Johan... Well Done my friend! (It's nice to know that the seeds which were planted fell upon fertile soil!!!) And yes, the TRIN, VIX and Market Breadth (i.e., all the internals) were very bullish yesterday and as such, I was in no hurry to try and fade that strength as I was looking more towards getting in on the buy side yesterday and riding that under current flow of strength. Hence the nice little 2 min. TS3 buy setup on the NQ that I pointed out.

Keep up the good work and...

May the FLOW be with you!;)

Cheers!!!

Thanks a lot Rob - yeah I really learnt a lot of great stuff from you which I am ever so grateful for. Hope everything is going great for you!!!

d-day

11-29-2007, 12:29 PM

Any trade into a DP within the first 1-60 minutes of trading is worth a shot or two or three (but no more than three for me).
I also do not necessarily require divergence for a DP trade if it occurs within the first hour of trading (see Steve's training video on the Opening DP trade for more info on that).

Of course, that was yesterday. Today a perfect DP long set-up on the ER2 (and I see it on the YM also, where there is also a TS2), but I stood down as I had no divergence.:o

Duh! The ER2 has traded as high as 3.8R with a DP target at 5R. The YM reached its first DP Target where a sell limit would have yielded approx. 2.6R.

I hate missing a trade like this - I'd rather have taken it and lost than to watch it hit its targets and not be aboard.

I was too focused upon reading the great posts from Rama, jay, and Rob to think straight. That'll teach me not to read posts during the first 90 minutes lol. It was all very good stuff, by the way, and I thank you guys for sharing your insights. I'm learning everyday.

Lumer

11-29-2007, 01:06 PM

Hi everybody,

on YM there was more... more confidence with wolfe waves on DP at blue buy bar.. but don't think to much.. i was also .. distract...

regards

TreeShaker

11-29-2007, 01:07 PM

Of course, that was yesterday. Today a perfect DP long set-up on the ER2 (and I see it on the YM also, where there is also a TS2), but I stood down as I had no divergence.:o

Duh! The ER2 has traded as high as 3.8R with a DP target at 5R. The YM reached its first DP Target where a sell limit would have yielded approx. 2.6R.

I hate missing a trade like this - I'd rather have taken it and lost than to watch it hit its targets and not be aboard.

I was too focused upon reading the great posts from Rama, jay, and Rob to think straight. That'll teach me not to read posts during the first 90 minutes lol. It was all very good stuff, by the way, and I thank you guys for sharing your insights. I'm learning everyday.

Don't feel too bad about missing those trades Dave, I took the YM and got stopped out for a nice little 1.4R. I thought I was slick and jumped into a DP at that point and took a -1.1R hit. I could see at that point that the trend was going to continue up so I tired Steves continuation trade. It dipped down giving me a -1.4R hit and has been going up ever since. So I now sit with a 1.1R lose.:mad: I was on the 1 min. chart, noticed that the shake out dips weren't a problem on the 3 min. charts.:(

rrs

11-29-2007, 01:21 PM

Of course, that was yesterday. Today a perfect DP long set-up on the ER2 (and I see it on the YM also, where there is also a TS2), but I stood down as I had no divergence.:o

Duh! The ER2 has traded as high as 3.8R with a DP target at 5R. The YM reached its first DP Target where a sell limit would have yielded approx. 2.6R.

I hate missing a trade like this - I'd rather have taken it and lost than to watch it hit its targets and not be aboard.

I was too focused upon reading the great posts from Rama, jay, and Rob to think straight. That'll teach me not to read posts during the first 90 minutes lol. It was all very good stuff, by the way, and I thank you guys for sharing your insights. I'm learning everyday.

Hi David,

Here are two more examples from this morning -- illustrating the same points from my last post. Over the course of past several weeks I have become more circumspect in taking counter trend (DP) trades -- making them pass more stringent conditions before I commit my money to these trades. At least, this particular idea seems to help me hold my nerve (and my positions!) and boost my confidence during this critical stage of the trading session.

Sincerely,

Rama.

pegasus5

11-29-2007, 01:50 PM

Here is a very nice TS4 Long off today's bottom

TreeShaker

11-29-2007, 02:40 PM

DD are you in that TSx coming off of todays low? Darn, I just got stopped out.

Rob E

11-29-2007, 03:07 PM

I'm learning everyday.

We all are my friend... as that's the name of the game... and if we're no longer learning and trying to improve on our craft... then it's time to hang up the spurs!!!

As I'm sure that old ornery one-eyed Texan's probably said a time or two!!! ;)

d-day

11-29-2007, 03:33 PM

DD are you in that TSx coming off of todays low? Darn, I just got stopped out.

Sorry TimberRocker, I wasn't watching the boards. I'm not sure which LOD ur talkng from but I was long from off the 13:06 bar for a -1R loss and then I got long again off the 13:45 bar (I know we made a new low on the 13:48 bar but I kept my entry buy stop off the 13:45 bar). Usually I would have waited for price to get down nto that DP, but I was showing pretty good divergence already at the 13:06 bar so I went in. After I missed the opening DP today, I was anxious not to miss another winner.

TreeShaker

11-29-2007, 04:10 PM

Sorry TimberRocker, I wasn't watching the boards. I'm not sure which LOD ur talkng from but I was long from off the 13:06 bar for a -1R loss and then I got long again off the 13:45 bar (I know we made a new low on the 13:48 bar but I kept my entry buy stop off the 13:45 bar). Usually I would have waited for price to get down nto that DP, but I was showing pretty good divergence already at the 13:06 bar so I went in. After I missed the opening DP today, I was anxious not to miss another winner.

That was the one 1348 hrs. I was still deciding when it took off. Tried the 3 min. TS4 @ 1445 for my 4th loss of the day. Are you still in that long trade?

jjc

11-29-2007, 05:32 PM

for my 4th loss of the day.

TreeShaker

Please be more careful, you don't have to take every single trade that pops up.

If nothing else, look for divergernce off the RSI to price at DP levels. I only marked one possible trade on this chart but if you look at it you will find serveral other trades that could of worked.

RSI is a old but solid indicator.

Hope this helps buddy.

j

TreeShaker

11-29-2007, 05:57 PM

TreeShaker

Please be more careful, you don't have to take every single trade that pops up.

If nothing else, look for divergernce off the RSI to price at DP levels. I only marked one possible trade on this chart but if you look at it you will find serveral other trades that could of worked.

RSI is a old but solid indicator.

Hope this helps buddy.

j

Thanks for the advise, I'll check RSI out. I had a small win to start me off this morning and then I got careless and started trying some of the things I've seen done, like jumping into a DP at the end of my good trade, and trying a trade that Steve demo on the webinar. I better stay more simple for now.

d-day

11-29-2007, 06:24 PM

That was the one 1348 hrs. I was still deciding when it took off. Tried the 3 min. TS4 @ 1445 for my 4th loss of the day. Are you still in that long trade?

I got chopped up a good bit at the end of the day with two back to back TS1short losers leaving me -1.5R today. Bearish divergences everywhere and yet the market held up.

Shows the importance of taking all of your trades that fit your rules though - I wasn't thinking straight this morning and missed the DP long that would have got me out with about + 3.7R which would have left me +2.2R for the day. Instead I finish the day a loser.

Oh well, I hope to get it back tomorrow. And then some.

jjc

11-29-2007, 06:45 PM

Thanks for the advise, I'll check RSI out. I had a small win to start me off this morning and then I got careless and started trying some of the things I've seen done, like jumping into a DP at the end of my good trade, and trying a trade that Steve demo on the webinar. I better stay more simple for now.

K.I.S.S.

And, when you think you gots yourself a good DP trade try getting a bead on it by doing what I call a TLB (trend line break) off that RSI. checkout that green line off the RSI and you'l see what I mean.

Heck, on that trade there was also a good 1 2 3 to the downside to further your confidence in the trade.

go get em partner

j

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 01:27 AM

K.I.S.S.

And, when you think you gots yourself a good DP trade try getting a bead on it by doing what I call a TLB (trend line break) off that RSI. checkout that green line off the RSI and you'l see what I mean.

Heck, on that trade there was also a good 1 2 3 to the downside to further your confidence in the trade.

go get em partner

j

Thanks for the tip, I'll try that too. Are you guys using RSI 14/3 out of the box? I can see the 14 but I'm not sure about the last #.

jay21

11-30-2007, 05:21 AM

Congrats Biggo - great trade! I'm with j on this - I just have not found much success with the idea of a DP continuation trade.

Here's how I approached the ER2 today - it's not quite as fancy as your trade. I bought me some ER2 on what I call a mini-BullFlag, and then I bought some more at the next one. Just a little chart pattern that has served me very very well over time. Though we haven't heard anything from them, I would bet that QiTrader, Todd, and Pegasus may very well be or at least at some point been long on these little flags. A bit old-fashioned, I'll admit. But sometimes the oldies really are goodies;) I stopped out at 764.5 and reversed to short at that price with my stop at 767. We'll see how that works out - I'm targeting the DP below near 761.4 or so.

UPDATE: Stopped out - but trying again with a sell stop at 766.6 - stop loss is 769

Hey Dave!

This thing you say about the "mini-BullFlag" I find very interesting - I have seen myself that this kind of pattern can be oh so useful on clearly trending days - like you just showed above. I see that you point to the volume going down during the pullback from the start of the flag, until break-out. Are there any other criteria you use when defining these patterns?

Myself what I look for is as mentioned clearly trending days, in combination with a fast move, and compression in volatility for some bars, then a breakout from a coloured bar in the direction of the trend. As I understand it you don't even need that coloured bar to take the trade - do you have any other criteria to avoid being stopped out too often?

Thanks!

jjc

11-30-2007, 09:59 AM

Thanks for the tip, I'll try that too. Are you guys using RSI 14/3 out of the box? I can see the 14 but I'm not sure about the last #.

On that chart I used 14 with close...but with all due respect I think you're missing the point. No one indicator is going to be perfect every single time.

IMO, what is important is to attempt to indentify 'if' the mood of the market may be changing. As you can see leading up to the DP the mood was 'buying'. Now, what will convince you that the mood will change to 'selling'? .

Study the chart with the lines and numbers I drew and see what would of convinced you the mood may changing to 'selling'.

You may not get the best R/R but you just might catch the meat and potato(e)s of the mood change.

I suggest you pick a certain pattern and work with that particular pattern until you understand it completely. (empirical evidence)

good luck

j

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 12:16 PM

DD did you find a way to enter the down cycle the ER2 is in?

Steve Griffiths

11-30-2007, 12:36 PM

jay21

11-30-2007, 12:40 PM

Hi Everybody

I hope all the very short-term traders among you looked at the "larger-degree" picture before the market Gapped Open today ?

Because you will then have seen now today's Gap Open ran right into a 60min DP on the YM.........

No wonder the current decline .....

Steve

That is a very good observation Steve.

Myself I tend to focus on the ES, and looking at the larger degree there I saw some upside remaining until that 60 min DP-target. But as you say on the YM we were already there.

I conclude from this that it might make sense to look at the larger degree in all the different contract types - ES, NQ, YM and AB - to look for clues in this respect.

Thanks a lot for this!

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 12:42 PM

On that chart I used 14 with close...but with all due respect I think you're missing the point. No one indicator is going to be perfect every single time.

IMO, what is important is to attempt to indentify 'if' the mood of the market may be changing. As you can see leading up to the DP the mood was 'buying'. Now, what will convince you that the mood will change to 'selling'? .

Study the chart with the lines and numbers I drew and see what would of convinced you the mood may changing to 'selling'.

You may not get the best R/R but you just might catch the meat and potato(e)s of the mood change.

I suggest you pick a certain pattern and work with that particular pattern until you understand it completely. (empirical evidence)

good luck

j

Here is my read on what you presented J. I see a higher high in price and a lower high in RSI for -diver. The first TLB in price is supported by a TLB in RSI and then a second TLB in price is saying "it's now or never".:)

Now if I can only learn to apply these check points quickly to get into the trades. I find myself hurrying and forgetting to apply some important checks or checking so much that it becomes a moot point.
Thanks J

d-day

11-30-2007, 01:14 PM

Hey Dave!

This thing you say about the "mini-BullFlag" I find very interesting - I have seen myself that this kind of pattern can be oh so useful on clearly trending days - like you just showed above. I see that you point to the volume going down during the pullback from the start of the flag, until break-out. Are there any other criteria you use when defining these patterns?

No, this is strict chartpattern/volume pattern trade for me.

d-day

11-30-2007, 01:17 PM

DD did you find a way to enter the down cycle the ER2 is in?

If you keep a swing chart of recent highs and lows you would se that the high on 11/15 was 783.1 and when price poked slightly above that level and couldn;t hold for even one 3 minute bar, that was a pretty good indication that we were heading lower for a while.

I'm hoping that this little bounce here resolves itself down to 669-ish or lower to yesterday's close while filling out a bullish momentum divergence.

Time will tell.

d-day

11-30-2007, 01:25 PM

I'm hoping that this little bounce here resolves itself down to 669-ish or lower to yesterday's close while filling out a bullish momentum divergence.

Here is a pic that shows the potential developing DP long trade I spoke of above. Of course, the market can do anything she wants.

jjc

11-30-2007, 01:27 PM

Here is my read on what you presented J. I see a higher high in price and a lower high in RSI for -diver. The first TLB in price is supported by a TLB in RSI and then a second TLB in price is saying "it's now or never".:)

Now if I can only learn to apply these check points quickly to get into the trades. I find myself hurrying and forgetting to apply some important checks or checking so much that it becomes a moot point.
Thanks J

TS

Without posting a chart can you see anywhere on a 3min ES, using RSI default settings, that might of convinced you to short this morning?

If the trade is there then it's there if it's not then you wait for 'your' set up.

Master one trade setup at a time and you're way ahead of the pack ! :)

j

d-day

11-30-2007, 01:40 PM

Here is a pic that shows the potential developing DP long trade I spoke of above. Of course, the market can do anything she wants.

The ER2 has yet to settle into my buy zone, and she may not get there anytime soon as the YM as buy divergences on everything I track - the STF, the 5,3,3 Stochasitic, and the Dday.

I bought just one YM at 13388 to see what happens and I have a sell limit at 13424 - the DP target. Stop loss is 13365 for now. I'm still stalking the ER2 - she often has a mind of her own and she'll buck the immediate trend if she wishes to fulfil her obligations lol.

The YM did retrace 78.6% as measured from yesterday's 4:15 closing price to the HOD today. I'll be surprised if the YM doesn't hit at least the minimum oppossing DP target as this pattern is nearly text book. Of course, sometimes the market goes book burning and it would not be unusual for her to make another poke down to a new, slightly lower DP level.

d-day

11-30-2007, 02:02 PM

I bought just one YM at 13388 to see what happens and I have a sell limit at 13424 - the DP target. Stop loss is 13365 for now.

I brought my stop loss up to 13386 which is one tick below the 12:54 EST bar - reducing risk to two ticks + slippage and commish.

Well I'm out - probably came in too tight too quick withthe stop. Frankly, I will be surprised if the YM fails to at least trade to 14424

jay21

11-30-2007, 02:05 PM

I brought my stop loss up to 13386 which is one tick below the 12:54 EST bar - reducing risk to two ticks + slippage and commish.

I am long the ES here, but I see the problem in the AB, looks very short to me...

jay21

11-30-2007, 02:21 PM

I am long the ES here, but I see the problem in the AB, looks very short to me...

But the AB short didn't work out, because I saw that I moved my stop loss to B/E on the long ES trade and was stopped out before the continued move up - sometimes I suppose one is too smart for one's own good...:(

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 02:26 PM

The ER2 has yet to settle into my buy zone, and she may not get there anytime soon as the YM as buy divergences on everything I track - the STF, the 5,3,3 Stochasitic, and the Dday.

I bought just one YM at 13388 to see what happens and I have a sell limit at 13424 - the DP target. Stop loss is 13365 for now. I'm still stalking the ER2 - she often has a mind of her own and she'll buck the immediate trend if she wishes to fulfil her obligations lol.

The YM did retrace 78.6% as measured from yesterday's 4:15 closing price to the HOD today. I'll be surprised if the YM doesn't hit at least the minimum oppossing DP target as this pattern is nearly text book. Of course, sometimes the market goes book burning and it would not be unusual for her to make another poke down to a new, slightly lower DP level.

I saw the DP on the YM while I was waiting for the ER2 to give a signal, so I got in due to good diver. I used the ATR and got stopped out for a .8R loss :( but I think the diver is still good so I got back in.

It doesn't look like the ER2 is coming down to your buy zone. The 1min. had a TS1 at about 772. What are you going to do now?

d-day

11-30-2007, 02:38 PM

Frankly, I will be surprised if the YM fails to at least trade to 14424

I'm not surprised.

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 02:40 PM

DD the YM hit the target and is now trying to decide which way to go. I closed 1 lot and have 1 lot trailing at the 34 MA. Where did I get such an idea?:p

d-day

11-30-2007, 02:42 PM

What are you going to do now?

Wait for the next trade.

jjc

11-30-2007, 02:58 PM

Shorted ES here

And got long on ES there

Looking for a short now

j

jjc

11-30-2007, 03:06 PM

Shorted ES here

And got long on ES there

Looking for a short now

j

But Dave's Dday takes all the guess work out...it's a no-brainer :)

j

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 03:15 PM

But Dave's Dday takes all the guess work out...it's a no-brainer :)

j

J if you took a long position at the red up arrow, the bars dip down a way, so how did you set up your entry and your stop? What did the magic tool tell you? When I look at it I say, "that's pretty with all those colors and look at it wiggle around".:cool:

jay21

11-30-2007, 03:17 PM

No, this is strict chartpattern/volume pattern trade for me.

Thanks a lot Dave!

I suppose there is a little "feeling" needed as well on when to use it - at least that is my experience...

d-day

11-30-2007, 03:21 PM

J if you took a long position at the red up arrow, the bars dip down a way, so how did you set up your entry and your stop? What did the magic tool tell you? When I look at it I say, "that's pretty with all those colors and look at it wiggle around".:cool:

j's a real pro ... "Stops?!? I don't need no stinkin' stops!"

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 03:21 PM

DD I just got stopped out of that YM trade a few min.s ago. With -1R loss and then jumping back in, I broke even. LOL:) Better than being down, but nerve racking. It hit the DP 3 times before it gave up. If I had a crystal ball I would have gotten out when it hit the DP. :D

d-day

11-30-2007, 03:21 PM

Shorted ES here

And got long on ES there

Looking for a short now

j

Show-off ;)

jjc

11-30-2007, 03:22 PM

J if you took a long position at the red up arrow, the bars dip down a way, so how did you set up your entry and your stop? What did the magic tool tell you? When I look at it I say, "that's pretty with all those colors and look at it wiggle around".:cool:

Yes, I took some enemy fire on that trade but the TLB kept me in the trade...whew !

j

Rob E

11-30-2007, 03:22 PM

But Dave's Dday takes all the guess work out...it's a no-brainer :)

j

Have a look at this No-Brainer! A beautiful 3 min. TS4 Sell Setup on the YM that completes not only at the TYP., but also pierces into the DP level just above and still pops back down to close within the TYP. to qualify the setup! Nice double resistance!!!

Doesn't get to much better than that ay? ;)

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 03:39 PM

d-day

11-30-2007, 03:40 PM

Have a look at this No-Brainer! A beautiful 3 min. TS4 Sell Setup on the YM that completes not only at the TYP., but also pierces into the DP level just above and still pops back down to close within the TYP. to qualify the setup! Nice double resistance!!!

Doesn't get to much better than that ay? ;)

I must be a no-brainer myself as I stood aside on that TS4. As always, without momo divergence of some sort, I assume that a higher high is in the offing. But since that huge up move on the 28th, the market has not been adhering to its customary patterns. For example, the ER2 DP long I was stalking earlier never made it to my buy zone, so no trade for me. 19 out of 20 times the ER2 would not have rallied until it completed that pattern. But I have noticed that after violent moves of greater than 2% it often takes a few days for the market to settle into its new range. Maybe I should have taken today off.

Rob E

11-30-2007, 03:40 PM

d-day

11-30-2007, 03:50 PM

I liked the er2 dp short better. Good luck.

Rob E

11-30-2007, 03:52 PM

Target reached...now it's time to play the manuel DP going back the other way with lot's of good divergence confirming the setup!!! So now we just wait and see! :)

Oh well... Can't win em all!!! Just wait'n 4 the next setup!

d-day

11-30-2007, 03:54 PM

I liked the er2 dp short better. Good luck.

Here's the chart - TripleThreat Sell Divergences - 5,3,3 Stochastic, STF, Dday

Rob E

11-30-2007, 04:15 PM

I liked the er2 dp short better. Good luck.

Who needs luck when you've got "Position Sizing" and "Expectancy?" The #'s take care of themselves! ;)

But hey... thanks for the sentiment anyways my friend... I'll take it... cuz just as an old, ornery, one-eyed Texan poker buddy used 2 say...

I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Good Anyday!!! :D

jjc

11-30-2007, 04:15 PM

Shorted ES here

And got long on ES there

Looking for a short now

j

Got that no brainer short I was looking for.

Don't even need to post no stinking chart.

Flat , Fat and staying that way for the rest of the day...I might give it back but it won't be today :)

j

d-day

11-30-2007, 04:16 PM

Here's the chart - TripleThreat Sell Divergences - 5,3,3 Stochastic, STF, Dday

We've filled the gap back to yesterday's close - looks like they're putting both arms in the bear suit ahead of the weekend.

Larry22

11-30-2007, 04:27 PM

We've filled the gap back to yesterday's close - looks like they're putting both arms in the bear suit ahead of the weekend.

Nice short David, allmost 20 points from the top, just like I told you this morning.

I knew we had made a nice temporary top this morning. :D

I'm gald you were able to sell the ER2, the pattern was perfect we had a nice double abc on the 3 min chart when you sold it. ;)

d-day

11-30-2007, 04:29 PM

Nice short David, allmost 20 points from the top, just like I told you this morning.

I knew we had mada a nice temporary top this morning. :D

I'm gald you were able to sell the ER2 the pattern was perfect we had a nice double abc on the 3 min chart. ;)

Yes - Larry was kind enough to contact me this morning and he called the top on the ER2. You are some kind of wave counter, Larry ... An uncanny skill, if you ask me.

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 04:36 PM

:confused: Nice short David, allmost 20 points from the top, just like I told you this morning.

I knew we had made a nice temporary top this morning. :D

I'm gald you were able to sell the ER2, the pattern was perfect we had a nice double abc on the 3 min chart when you sold it. ;)

I must be counting wrong, I figure 774.6 down to 765.4 to be 10 points, or do you count the ticks also? I don't know!:confused:

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 04:45 PM

We've filled the gap back to yesterday's close - looks like they're putting both arms in the bear suit ahead of the weekend.
David, I was in that trade too but I only got 3.5R out of it. :D I waited until the first sign of momo slowing and that was the best I could do. At any rate that brings me back to positive territory for the day, up .7R today. In view of the time, I think I'm done.

Larry22

11-30-2007, 04:50 PM

:confused:

I must be counting wrong, I figure 774.6 down to 765.4 to be 10 points, or do you count the ticks also? I don't know!:confused:

783.3 to 765 = 18 points, close enough for me. :D

Explanation, I knew at 783.3 that we had made a temporary top from my wave count analysis.

I will try to post 1 or 2 pic showing why later on. ;)

d-day

11-30-2007, 04:53 PM

:confused:

I must be counting wrong, I figure 774.6 down to 765.4 to be 10 points, or do you count the ticks also? I don't know!:confused:

The ER2 HOD was 783.3 and the LOD thus far was 764.90 - that's a whole lot closer to 20 points than 10 points. larry contacted me this morning soon after the 783.3 print to call a top.

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 05:15 PM

The ER2 HOD was 783.3 and the LOD thus far was 764.90 - that's a whole lot closer to 20 points than 10 points. larry contacted me this morning soon after the 783.3 print to call a top.

I see said the blind man. I didn't get in until the 3min DP @ 1139 PST, I didn't know that you were in at the HOD. WOW!:D

d-day

11-30-2007, 05:19 PM

I see said the blind man. I didn't get in until the 3min DP @ 1139 PST, I didn't know that you were in at the HOD. WOW!:D

No I didn't sell the HOD ... Larry and I were just referring to where price was when he called the top. I sold that 3 minute er2 DP short the same time as you.

TreeShaker

11-30-2007, 05:33 PM

TS

Without posting a chart can you see anywhere on a 3min ES, using RSI default settings, that might of convinced you to short this morning?

If the trade is there then it's there if it's not then you wait for 'your' set up.

Master one trade setup at a time and you're way ahead of the pack ! :)

j

J, I see a TLB @ 1100 PST, there is also some - diver in the STF and a red bar. There isn't any MTP setup there. It would have yield 2.4 R using ATR, which is also the same point that the RSI down trend would have been broken.

I don't see anything else. Did I miss anything?

jjc

11-30-2007, 06:36 PM

J, I see a TLB @ 1100 PST, there is also some - diver in the STF and a red bar. There isn't any MTP setup there. It would have yield 2.4 R using ATR, which is also the same point that the RSI down trend would have been broken.

I don't see anything else. Did I miss anything?

Take a pic of that and tatoo that in your brain !

Lets see how many times that setup occurs in the next 30 days.

From now on that is known to us as the TS setup lol

Have a great weekend

By the way, I was born in Huntington Beach Calif. Where are you at?

j

Larry22

11-30-2007, 07:53 PM

783.3 to 765 = 18 points, close enough for me. :D

Explanation, I knew at 783.3 that we had made a temporary top from my wave count analysis.

I will try to post 1 or 2 pic showing why later on. ;)

Ok as promised I wil post a few charts showing why the ER2 had reached a potential intermediate top.

First chart is an hourly one showing a wave count with a double ABC with the last C wave reaching the cluster prices of 78.6 % 783.4 (from the 11-14-07 top) and the 50 % 783.9 (from the 10-31-07 top)

Next 2 charts are on a 15 min., the first one is from the globex see how we had a nice double ABC in the last up wave. I made a projection from the first ABC with the X wave and oh what a nice surprise the 1.618 projection was 783.4.

The normal hours 15 min charts was confirming a decision point, plus I also had a full wave count on the 15 minutes.

So in conclusion many target prices forming a nice cluster had been reached and a double ABC wave coun had been completed.

So the only thing left to do was to sell for a possible 10 to 20 points drop, why easy 23% was 771 and 38% 764.

I hope this will help some of you understanding why it is so important to not only f