US Markets: Real-time Trading

[d-day]

Yep, a nice +3.3R at that DP......

Steve

So today a DP off the B is valid?

And I do not see any 3.3 R DP buy long trade anywhere - could you post a screen shot please?

[davidh]

Dave,
I think Steve means taking profit from the short at the DP, not going long

[G Fryer]

...ahhh, I think Steve means the manual DP long that you could have taken from the low of the day (that I missed.) If you had SAR at the TS3 sell then you would have made about that RR.

G

[jjc]

short on the 5min ym ts2

j

[TreeShaker]

Which would not be a valid DP buy set up.

Im trailing with the ATR - currently all the way back at 12956 - but that was my New Year's resolution - all trades will be exited at a trailing ATR unless counter signal occurs first which would recult in a stop and reverse. As the DP buy is not a valid DP set up, I am staying short.

Kinda like watching the grass grow in the winter isn't it Dave.

[edfash]

that short sale in the YM corresponded to a 5 wave sequence in both es and er/ab that completed at a 1.382 extension of wave 1 displaced to the beginning of wave 5.

[jjc]

short on the 5min ym ts2

j

i reckon this ole boy with take his loot now and call it a day

no pun intended dday :)

j

[jjc]

i reckon this ole boy with take his loot now and call it a day

no pun intended dday :)

j

maybe i shud learnt to spell and type too

j

[TAS]

I have reversed YM at 13912 with 12883 stop

TAS

[Steve Griffiths]

Looks like you all had a good trade there :)

+6R Profit at the DP to new lows, better than my +3R on the DP from the Wave b low (profit taking only)

So well done to all of you !!

[TreeShaker]

I think you just got stopped out J and Dave. How did you do? I managed a 1.7R out of the ER2 2min TS1 at 1250hrs. :) Not getting rich but any gain is welcome.

[jjc]

I think you just got stopped out J and Dave. How did you do? I managed a 1.7R out of the ER2 2min TS1 at 1250hrs. :) Not getting rich but any gain is welcome.

TreeShaker

Allow me to share something with you, in this more or less public forum, that you may find interesting and possibly helpful.

As you know, we all are trying to find the 'perfect' filter for a signal. Well, how about looking for 'price pivots' when you get a signal. An example of a 3 bar price pivot is boxed in on this chart. I find 3 bar price pivots to be an objective filter.

Good luck with that !

j

[d-day]

I have reversed YM at 13912 with 12883 stop

TAS

Im still short with a 12941 stop

I did take a quickie long on the 5 minute NQ for +1.175R trailing a stop below 1 minute lows.

[d-day]

I think you just got stopped out J and Dave. How did you do? I managed a 1.7R out of the ER2 2min TS1 at 1250hrs. :) Not getting rich but any gain is welcome.


I use ATR set to close with 0.000 ratchet

my stop is 12941

[d-day]

Stop on my short YM is now 12930

[d-day]

Stop on my short YM is now 12930

Scaled stops now - 4 contacts with 4 different stops up to 12926

[TAS]

:) [QUOTE=David Day;12674]Im still short with a 12941 stop

I did take a quickie long on the 5 minute NQ for +1.175R trailing a stop below 1 minute lows.[/QUO



I exit that DP long at B/E after red bar showed up around most recent high of 12940. Now flat and agree that with new low had been made, YM would finish today around the low end...

Good luck to you.:)

TAS

[davidh]

Dave,
I was interested in your comment re your ATR settings. Setting it to close instead of Hi/Lo seems to make a big difference. Do you only use this setting when there is a strong trend in place or do you use it all the time?
Thanks, David

[TreeShaker]

TreeShaker

Allow me to share something with you, in this more or less public forum, that you may find interesting and possibly helpful.

As you know, we all are trying to find the 'perfect' filter for a signal. Well, how about looking for 'price pivots' when you get a signal. An example of a 3 bar price pivot is boxed in on this chart. I find 3 bar price pivots to be an objective filter.

Good luck with that !

j



I'm not sure of what you are saying J. Are you referring to 3 colored bars?

[d-day]

Dave,
I was interested in your comment re your ATR settings. Setting it to close instead of Hi/Lo seems to make a big difference. Do you only use this setting when there is a strong trend in place or do you use it all the time?
Thanks, David

I purdy much use that all the time - I find it keeps me in trend days better than the standard settings. I will exit if I get a stop and reverse, for example, I had a buy limit to go long the es at 1519 and when that was filled I exited my YM's at the market.

[jjc]

I'm not sure of what you are saying J. Are you referring to 3 colored bars?

maybe this pic well help..hope you're able to read what i posted on it



j

[TAS]

I purdy much use that all the time - I find it keeps me in trend days better than the standard settings. I will exit if I get a stop and reverse, for example, I had a buy limit to go long the es at 1519 and when that was filled I exited my YM's at the market.

HI Dave,

on which basis did you place but limit at 1419 for ES ?

Thanks for explanation.

TAS

[TAS]

maybe this pic well help..hope you're able to read what i posted on it



j

Hi J,

in your show case, do you deliberately "lower" the position size with same risk per trade... ??

Thanks and regards,

TAS

[TreeShaker]

maybe this pic well help..hope you're able to read what i posted on it



j

Oh, I see said the blind man! :) Do you use the trio with and without a signal?

[jjc]

Hi J,

in your show case, do you deliberately "lower" the position size with same risk per trade... ??

Thanks and regards,

TAS


TAS

My position sizing rules are different than MTP's

Albeit, MTP risk and reward rules are good and should be followed

j

[d-day]

My position sizing rules are different than MTP's


Now that is an understatement if I ever heard one.

[d-day]

HI Dave,

on which basis did you place but limit at 1419 for ES ?

Thanks for explanation.

TAS

Pull up a daily chart of the ES H8 and take a look at the bottom of the bodies of the 11/26 and 11/27 candlesticks. While the low on each day was 1415.75, the candlestick bodies were 1418 and 1418.50 respectively. I had a limit order resting 2 ticks above the higher of the two body lows with a stop loss 2 ticks below the lower low - i.e. buy limit 1419 with an initial stop loss at 1417.50. I was hoping for a solid 10 point bounce but I closed out at 1424.50 during the 15:09 EST bar basis the 1 minute chart when we got the first reversal pattern - ironically jjc used the same pattern earlier on the 5 minute YM. In this case, the 15:07 ES made a high, 15:08 made a higher high but closed lower than the previous bar. 15:09 ES traded below the low of the 15:07 bar where I was stopped out.


Now, had I been filled at 1419 and stopped out at 17.50, I had another buy stop at 1416.25 (2 ticks above the 11/26 Novemeber low with an attached stop loss at 1415.25. Same concept - get long near prior support with a 1.5 point risk and then grab as much of a bounce as you can safely catch.

[d-day]

Here is a nice TS3 sell on the daily chart of the Russell 2000. I sure wish I had noticed this on the night of December 26th, but with the holidays and family visits and visiting family et cetera et cetera my usual preparations fell by the wayside. Too bad Steve or Matt or Tony didn't take advantage of this great call by posting the chart the day before the market went into free fall. That would have made a great sales tool and it would have been an immense benefit to MTP users who may have missed this signal. I know Steve does not want to bring back the daily report, but perhaps it would be a wise business decision to provide a "Special Situtations" report when such situations arise.

Anyhow - we are at 4.9 times the initial risk and we closed below the first WPT.

[Larry22]

Interesting David, I was just finishing a potential wave count on the Russell daily cash.

We could be near the end of a wave count but again time and intraday wave counts will tell us if they want to stop there.

But we have a few clusters target in this area.

[tar001]

I see that everyone was in the TS shorts (3 +5 minute) but I did not see any divergences. did you guys? or were you just looking for shorts and took it with the red STF, etc.?



TS3 on 3 minute YM

[tar001]

here is a chart, also is the first setup valid? I believe it was even though the red bar was the second bar from the TS setup(2+2 rule) I took it and got stopped out but made up for it on the next trade(Plus some):D



I see that everyone was in the TS shorts (3 +5 minute) but I did not see any divergences. did you guys? or were you just looking for shorts and took it with the red STF, etc.?

[tar001]

and here is a 5 minute, great standard TS setups by the way using a red STF but no divergences not that MTP rules require divergences.

here is a chart, also is the first setup valid? I believe it was even though the red bar was the second bar from the TS setup(2+2 rule) I took it and got stopped out but made up for it on the next trade(Plus some):D

[d-day]

I see that everyone was in the TS shorts (3 +5 minute) but I did not see any divergences. did you guys? or were you just looking for shorts and took it with the red STF, etc.?

I cannot speak for anyone else, Tar, but if we have an opening gap that is not filled within the first 15-30 minutes of trading, I assume that we are in a trend day and the market will close at the opposite end of its range from the open. Therefore, I assumed we would close at the low of the day and I was looking for any low defined risk entry to add to shorts. Sometimes I am wrong, and the market does stage a late morning or late day reversal and fills such a gap, but those instances are few and far between.

[tar001]

well thats a very valuable bit of information, shouldn't I have been told about that before?(hahah just kidding of course) "add to shorts"? you were already short?



I cannot speak for anyone else, Tar, but if we have an opening gap that is not filled within the first 15-30 minutes of trading, I assume that we are in a trend day and the market will close at the opposite end of its range from the open. Therefore, I assumed we would close at the low of the day and I was looking for any low defined risk entry to add to shorts. Sometimes I am wrong, and the market does stage a late morning or late day reversal and fills such a gap, but those instances are few and far between.

[d-day]

well thats a very valuable bit of information, shouldn't I have been told about that before?(hahah just kidding of course) "add to shorts"? you were already short?

I was short from the initial reaction to NFP data in the premarket. I kept that core short all day. I added to shorts on the 3 minute TS2 and those contracts were stopped for a loss, but I still had my initial shorts contracts. I added again on the TS3 on the 3 minute. I did do 3 long trades: 1 on the er2 and lost -1R and 1 on the NQ and took a + 1R profit and 1 on the ES that made 5.5 points on an initial 1.5 point risk. The whole while I was short the YM.

[d-day]

Interesting David, I was just finishing a potential wave count on the Russell daily cash.

We could be near the end of a wave count but again time and intraday wave counts will tell us if they want to stop there.

But we have a few clusters target in this area.

Hi Larry,

Thank you for sharing this with us. I plan on watching the 700-709 level basis the cash index (708.79 is the 78.6% retracement of the monster rally off the July 2006 Low to the July 2007 high). I figured that the August 16th low was the end of a wave 1 or A down, the October 11 high was the end of a wave 2 or B up, and we are now in a wave 3 down or either a wave 3 or C down.

We will know soon.

Thank you,

d-day

[jjc]

and here is a 5 minute, great standard TS setups by the way using a red STF but no divergences not that MTP rules require divergences.


Your own ADX Indicator told you that you didnt need divergence because the trend was 'strong' to 'moderately strong'.

Your own ADX told you the trend was down bias ( -dmi over +dmi)

Your own ADX told you that when the market is trending strongly you should expect it to reverse at the "BrachZone' ( .618 ~ .786) from the previous price privot and continue it's trend The Price Pivot I'm refering to is made up of bar1 at 8cst , bar2 comprised 3 bars of 9cst ~ 9:10cst and bar3 was 9:15cst

Your own ADX told you that at TS2 there was distribution ((+dmi and -dmi met at TS2 with weaker trend

j.

[Larry22]

Hi Larry,

Thank you for sharing this with us. I plan on watching the 700-709 level basis the cash index (708.79 is the 78.6% retracement of the monster rally off the July 2006 Low to the July 2007 high). I figured that the August 16th low was the end of a wave 1 or A down, the October 11 high was the end of a wave 2 or B up, and we are now in a wave 3 down or either a wave 3 or C down.

We will know soon.

Thank you,

d-day

Update, I am sorry for my first wave count but it had an error we didn't had a 5 wave pattern in the first A leg my mistake please disregard that count.

The attached charts is the one you should look, I have made an alternate count for the last C leg that is it can go in 5 waves or developped as the ABC X pattern if that is the case we will need to make a reversal soon go up then go down again for a C wave completing a double ABC in the C wave.

What I can say for sure is that we are at a decision point level, but again time will tell. ;)

Laurent

[tar001]

MY OWN ADX was saying ALL that? wow!! thats a great ADX I have going there!! hahahah
I was just asking as there were some on here that only took TS setups with divergences. I was in the short mainly due to the pattern an:D d I was looking for shorts


Your own ADX Indicator told you that you didnt need divergence because the trend was 'strong' to 'moderately strong'.

Your own ADX told you the trend was down bias ( -dmi over +dmi)

Your own ADX told you that when the market is trending strongly you should expect it to reverse at the "BrachZone' ( .618 ~ .786) from the previous price privot and continue it's trend The Price Pivot I'm refering to is made up of bar1 at 8cst , bar2 comprised 3 bars of 9cst ~ 9:10cst and bar3 was 9:15cst

Your own ADX told you that at TS2 there was distribution ((+dmi and -dmi met at TS2 with weaker trend

j.

[jjc]

MY OWN ADX was saying ALL that? wow!! thats a great ADX I have going there!! hahahah

Well, that shows what little I know...I never thought about using the ADX as a pretty decoration, like you do. hahaha

j

[jjc]

Well, that shows what little I know...I never thought about using the ADX as a pretty decoration, like you do. hahaha

j



tar001

My last post was a cheap shot and I apologize

I also ask the moderator to delete it

j


it's us against them and its not us against us

but, you have to admit that my cheap shot was funny tho :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

TS4 sell on the 3min ER2 looking good so far ......:)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

YIPPEEE............. the chart says it all :)

[d-day]

I'm short the YM on the 3 minute TS1 - we'll see if she does as well as the TS4 on the 3 minute ER2 did earlier.

[d-day]

I'm short the YM on the 3 minute TS1 - we'll see if she does as well as the TS4 on the 3 minute ER2 did earlier.

Nope. Oh well. On to the next one.

[d-day]

Nope. Oh well. On to the next one.

Ts1 on the ES just got stopped for -1R as well. On to the next one.

[TreeShaker]

Ts1 on the ES just got stopped for -1R as well. On to the next one.

Dave, take a look at the 60 & 15 min charts, they are showing DP long. Could be a bounce coming.

[d-day]

Dave, take a look at the 60 & 15 min charts, they are showing DP long. Could be a bounce coming.

No way to tell if those DP's are valid or not, and it is a bear market, so those TS sells were worth the taking.

[TreeShaker]

No way to tell if those DP's are valid or not, and it is a bear market, so those TS sells were worth the taking.

Larry's post indicated he thought a reversal was coming.

[d-day]

Larry's post indicated he thought a reversal was coming.

I thank you for your concern, Timbershaker. I am long the ER2 from way down yonder. But that won't stop me from selling this market short. Of course, stochastics warned me not to take those particular shorts, but given the down trend I was willing to take a shot.

[edfash]

i couldn't agree with david more. irrespective of the hourly signal and the pospect for this market to exhibit a corrective bounce, that bounce will not occur in a straight line, and should not make us ignore valid signals to the short side.

[Steve Griffiths]

Nope. Oh well. On to the next one.

Hi David,

You have to be careful that you are not "doubling up" on these signals, as the YM and ES were both at the same time you should not been in both of them.

So really it should only be a one -1R here and not two trades.

Thanks

Steve

[d-day]

Hi David,

You have to be careful that you are not "doubling up" on these signals, as the YM and ES were both at the same time you should not been in both of them.

So really it should only be a one -1R here and not two trades.

Thanks

Steve

Ok.

I am now short the TS3 on the 3 minute YM

[d-day]

Ok.

I am now short the TS3 on the 3 minute YM

Of course the signal went "Poof!" a moment after I was filled on what looks to be a low tick.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

My Gut is telling me to watch for a rally today as we bounce off daily WPT's

Steve

[d-day]

Of course the signal went "Poof!" a moment after I was filled on what looks to be a low tick.

Next! lol


Now I'm short again on the 3 minute YM DP

[d-day]

Hi Guys,

My Gut is telling me to watch for a rally today as we bounce off daily WPT's

Steve


Is that the official MTP stance then? If the daily charts at at WPT's then we shoudl ignore opposing signals. For example, since we were at WPT on daily sell signals, then we should ignore the MTP sell signals today?

[Steve Griffiths]

Is that the official MTP stance then? If the daily charts at at WPT's then we shoudl ignore opposing signals. For example, since we were at WPT on daily sell signals, then we should ignore the MTP sell signals today?

Actually I expect it to be more of a choppy day as Fridays sharp declines are digested.... difficult to trade....

Steve

[d-day]

Actually I expect it to be more of a choppy day as Fridays sharp declines are digested.... difficult to trade....

Steve


Pretty nice swings so far though - not too choppy to trade in my opinion.

[Steve Griffiths]

PS...

No this is not the "official" MTP stance, I am just sharing some of my experience as an advanced trader, based on many many years seeing how days "after" a Sharp fall unfold...

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Pretty nice swings so far though - not too choppy to trade in my opinion.

I agree..... that is why I am (although I had an upward biases earlier in the day) now the ER2 has rallied and now reached this DP "and" generated an automatic DP, it has peaked my interest

But nothing is certain....

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Next! lol


Now I'm short again on the 3 minute YM DP

Hi David,

Well we have just reached the opposing DP for a very nice +5R Profit, that will certainly make up for the small losses earlier....

Nice trade there .... well done

Steve

[d-day]

Hi Guys,

My Gut is telling me to watch for a rally today as we bounce off daily WPT's

Steve

While your interest was "piqued" I was short. Too bad you missed that one.

[Steve Griffiths]

I agree..... that is why I am (although I had an upward biases earlier in the day) now the ER2 has rallied and now reached this DP "and" generated an automatic DP, it has peaked my interest

But nothing is certain....

Steve

Well there you go, a nice +6R Profit as this DP short trade gets to within a whisker of the profit target....

And all posted "without" hindsight"

So come on people, all those of you who were having a go about me only posting trades after they had completed, well, now is time for an apology from you as this has unfolded since I posted the original set-up over a hour ago !

Steve

[d-day]

While your interest was "piqued" I was short. Too bad you missed that one.


Covered at target 12824 and now long at 12831 - we'll see how that goes.

Stop loss is 12832 for now.

[Steve Griffiths]

While your interest was "piqued" I was short. Too bad you missed that one.

Hi David,

No worries, I am happy with the +6R on the ER2 3min DP that I posted "at the time" earlier..........

So a good day for both of us ;)

Steve

[jjc]

Shorted the Isoseles with RSI divergence and hit Hypotenuse target


j

[d-day]

Shorted the Isoseles with RSI divergence and hit Hypotenuse target


j

Don't know much about geometry ...


I'm long the ym agin on the what may be the front leg of the dragon. Waiting to se whether he breaths fire up to new highs or do we get slayed by the Black Knight.

[jjc]

Don't know much about geometry ...


I'm long the ym agin on the what may be the front leg of the dragon. Waiting to se whether he breaths fire up to new highs or do we get slayed by the Black Knight.

Im long on the ES now with target of 1429.75 but its getting late so we might not have such a big run, we'l see.

good luck to you

j

[jjc]

Im long on the ES now with target of 1429.75 but its getting late so we might not have such a big run, we'l see.

good luck to you

j


Dday

I'm MOC now

good luck if ur still in

j

[pegasus5]

Hi Guys,

Just wanted to share today's ES 10000V chart with Fibonacci Retracement
and Extension Levels. Take a look....How many potential
low-risk trade entries can you find? Now clearly this question is posed
to the more "advanced trader", but some very good trading opportunities to be had if one was paying attention.

Good Trading to All in 2008

David

[Larry22]

After the low of the ER2 3 min charts and the high DP, I have been patiently waiting for the end of a nice correction.

It could have ended at the 262 % projections but finally ended up at the 78,6 % retracement and a double abc correction.

Notice how we had divergence when we reached the first c wave at 262 % and it stayed that way for the next abc leg down to the DP and 78%.

Tomorrow will be interesting to see how that pattern evolves.

[tar001]

was anyone at least tempted to cover part of your shorts at the first dp(green arrow)

[Larry22]

was anyone at least tempted to cover part of your shorts at the first dp(green arrow)


Yup covered near 724 then I bought at 723.8 when the 262% (722.9)was reached and exited at 726.3 based on a 1 min charts because the rally was too weak, after that it was just a game of patience, I have to say that I have been tempted to buy the 5th leg down in case of a failure of the 7th wave but my patience and the analysis of the 1 min charts paid off. ;)

Laurent

[tar001]

Hey Larry I actually caught that short on a 233 tick chart but I was referring to this DP to cover the DP(the green arrow did not show up so hopefully the text will)



Yup covered near 724 then I bought at 723.8 when the 262% (722.9)was reached and exited at 726.3 based on a 1 min charts because the rally was too weak, after that it was just a game of patience, I have to say that I have been tempted to buy the 5th leg down in case of a failure of the 7th wave but my patience and the analysis of the 1 min charts paid off. ;)

Laurent

[tar001]

The black bar at 729'ish



Hey Larry I actually caught that short on a 233 tick chart but I was referring to this DP to cover the DP(the green arrow did not show up so hopefully the text will)

[tar001]

you know a trade I have been trying lately is if there is no divergence(such as that trade) I only risk 1% its easy obviously to do the math by cutting the contracts in half. I got stopped out of that trade but lost just a small amount and by far made up for it on the DP's with divergences. had the first trade worked I would have been happy because I was in it(then again I over trade hahah)
just a thought
:D


Nope. Oh well. On to the next one.

[G Fryer]

NQ & YM showed TS3 sells on the 15 min charts @ 10:30. ER2 & ES showed TS4 sells at the same time. Drill down to a smaller time frame to get into the trade.

Gillian

[jjc]

This DP was a beauty !

j

[Steve Griffiths]

This DP was a beauty !

j

Yep, +15R form DP to DP on the 3min AB !!!!

Steve

[jay21]

Yep, +15R form DP to DP on the 3min AB !!!!

Steve

Hey Steve!

Can I ask you, I know you have made some education session on the more advanced technique of trading off major DP-levels when there is no clear divergence - could you post the link to that session, or if you could just tell me again where I can find it on the website.

Cheers,
Johan

[TreeShaker]

I was surprised at how few post were made today. Especially after the late day carnage. Great for those who jumped onboard. I thought one more DP, and then it took off. :eek: Darn! Some will laugh all the way to the bank, I will laugh for something to do.:D

[d-day]

I was surprised at how few post were made today. Especially after the late day carnage. Great for those who jumped onboard. I thought one more DP, and then it took off. :eek: Darn! Some will laugh all the way to the bank, I will laugh for something to do.:D

Hey Treehshaker,

I started trading the YM only today (I've been wanting to get up to speed on some other instrument besides the ER2 as I am not sure what the status of the ER2 contract will be after the CME stops listing it). My best trades have been the auto DP's on the 1 minute chart using the ATR trailing stop for all exits. I'll try to post more later, but for anyone with MTP, take a look at the 1 minute YM over the past few days. And look at the trade that signalled at 14:30 EST - by the way, the same trade signalled a few minutes earlier, and you will see a little green arrow there - that was NOT a losing trade - the high of 12924 had not been exceeded.

A great day of trading, though it does make for sweaty palms.

d-day

[tar001]

you are trading the YM only or you only started trading the YM today? :confused:


Hey Treehshaker,

I started trading the YM only today (I've been wanting to get up to speed on some other instrument besides the ER2 as I am not sure what the status of the ER2 contract will be after the CME stops listing it). My best trades have been the auto DP's on the 1 minute chart using the ATR trailing stop for all exits. I'll try to post more later, but for anyone with MTP, take a look at the 1 minute YM over the past few days. And look at the trade that signalled at 14:30 EST - by the way, the same trade signalled a few minutes earlier, and you will see a little green arrow there - that was NOT a losing trade - the high of 12924 had not been exceeded.

A great day of trading, though it does make for sweaty palms.

d-day

[tar001]

anyone else trade off of 1 minute charts? I scrolled back and there are some great setups(not tried it in RT yet) this is a long setup on the ES from today on a 1 minute chart


you are trading the YM only or you only started trading the YM today? :confused:

[Steve Griffiths]

you are trading the YM only or you only started trading the YM today? :confused:

Hi Guys

I presume you all know that the CBOT is no longer giving the YM RT data free anymore. You have to subscribe to the full RT CBOT data at $55pm if you want the YM......

Steve

[Russell Stagg]

Hi Guys

I presume you all know that the CBOT is no longer giving the YM RT data free anymore. You have to subscribe to the full RT CBOT data at $55pm if you want the YM......

Steve
:mad:
And if you would like to suggest this is not cricket to the great monopoly that is cme/cbot please feel free to email them at www.cbot.com
Apparently (after my discussions with their pr person) - they take the retail trader's concerns "very seriously" (lol:-) )

Edit - remember you can trade DIA without the ym fee

[Angel]

Hello Steve,

Just for checking if I well understand your explanation concerning the YM : we have to subscribe to the full Real Time CBOT data at $55pm if we want the YM ? Am I right ?

Did you get any news concerning the e-Mini Russel because I don't see anything on the CME web site ?

Excepted the E-Mini NQ and the E-Mini ES, what type of futures do you advice us to trade now, why not the Euro FX ?

Thanks

Best regards

Angel

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Yes, at the moment we are all getting stitched up (oops did I say that :rolleyes: ) for $55pm if we wish to continue following the YM

TS8 have already enabled this charging and eSignak are about to...... so be prepared for the extra cost....

Steve

[d-day]

anyone else trade off of 1 minute charts? I scrolled back and there are some great setups(not tried it in RT yet) this is a long setup on the ES from today on a 1 minute chart

Hi Tar,

I'd be careful taking the TS's on those 1 minute charts - they can eat you alive. I only trade the DP's on the lower time frames. In the example you posted from the ES, you did have nice divergence into the low on the 5,3,3 stochastic, and price was at the rising 50 SMA and the the 34 EMA was rising and above the 50 SMA, so that one would have been worth a shot. But again, I'd be careful thinking you can trade those 1 minute TS1-4's as they will often repeatedly signal, stop you in and then out, and then signal again, eating you for another quick loss.

As for your other question, I am primarily day trading the YM, though I will keep the others open and I will be willing to take an occasional trade elsewhere.


Good luck,

d-day

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi David,

Just to let you know, as part of tidying up the DP code we have also tidy up the TS4 code to only show "valid" signals, as well as adding a profit target. So this means you will no longer get any invalid TS4 appearing and having to look at the larger degree trend.

I am testing this in Build 34 "in-house" at the moment and hope to release in a day or so....

Steve

[d-day]

Hi David,

Just to let you know, as part of tidying up the DP code we have also tidy up the TS4 code to only show "valid" signals, as well as adding a profit target. So this means you will no longer get any invalid TS4 appearing and having to look at the larger degree trend.

I am testing this in Build 34 "in-house" at the moment and hope to release in a day or so....

Steve

That's great news Steve! I sometimes wouldn't know a "valid" from and "invalid" if it bit me in the equity. Let us know when it is ready.

Thank you,

David

[d-day]

That's great news Steve! I sometimes wouldn't know a "valid" from and "invalid" if it bit me in the equity.

For example - those auto DP's on the 5 minute charts signals right now - are they valid, or invalid?

[jjc]

taking the ts3 long that just now popped up on the es 5min - long @ 1396.5

j

[jjc]

For example - those auto DP's on the 5 minute charts sihgnalling right now - are they valid, or invalid?

im fixing to find out lol

j

[jjc]

For example - those auto DP's on the 5 minute charts sihgnalling right now - are they valid, or invalid?

nope, those must of not been valid cuz i got stopped out at 1394.75 for a loss :(

but, the ts3 is still printing on the chart? now, thats odd !

[d-day]

taking the ts3 long that just now popped up on the es 5min - long @ 1396.5

j

Hey J, I'm short the YM basis the 1 minute chart based on a Dday divergence at a double top - I'd post a pic but my screen capture software is acting funny and I don't want to shut down to reboot. I'm short at 12710 and the ATR stop is at 12639 locking in 5.1R right now. I'll be looking for longs if we make into the DP's projected off yesterday's lows with divergence.

[TreeShaker]

For example - those auto DP's on the 5 minute charts signals right now - are they valid, or invalid?

Here is a thought Dave & J: I have one chart with all the filters on per MTP. Those DPs aren't on that chart but are on the ones that have filters turned off.

[d-day]

Hey J, I'm short the YM basis the 1 minute chart based on a Dday divergence at a double top - I'd post a pic but my screen capture software is acting funny and I don't want to shut down to reboot. I'm short at 12710 and the ATR stop is at 12639 locking in 5.1R right now. I'll be looking for longs if we make into the DP's projected off yesterday's lows with divergence.


I just got stopped at 12639 +5R after commish.

[Steve Griffiths]

Guys,

Please stop taking the P....

There are a lot of people who are reading these posts and do not need to be lead astray by what you think is funny or not....

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

I just got stopped at 12639 +5R after commish.

Hi David

Nice trade there - well done....

Steve

[TAS]

DECISION now, however, if BUSH talks more into military issue, YM would trade below 12600 DP, right now minor bounce over yesterday's low, with minor high of 12662.

anyone having some thoughts over this upcoming DP if YM chooses to tumble again, DIVERGENCE will be a sure thing if we reach there.

TAS

[d-day]

Hi David

Nice trade there - well done....

Steve

And they say you can't trade 1 minute charts - of course you can, so long as we have volatility and a big trading range.

[d-day]

DECISION now, however, if BUSH talks more into military issue, YM would trade below 12600 DP, right now minor bounce over yesterday's low, with minor high of 12662.

anyone having some thoughts over this upcoming DP if YM chooses to tumble again, DIVERGENCE will be a sure thing if we reach there.

TAS

If there is divergence at a DP I cannot see how you can do anything but trade. If it loses, it's -1R, but if it wins, how many R might you cheat yourself out of? And remember, if we do get to that DP with divergence intact and we get a reversal back through yesterday's low, a bunch of non-MTP traders will be looking to go long there as well on what Victor Sperandeo calls a 2B trade.

[jjc]

dave
did you take that last ym ts1 at 11:09cst ?

tia

j

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

The 3min NQ seems to have the best DP / Divergence set-up, BUT I am still wary of the larger degree picture. I would have been happier if this rally was coming off 15min DP's levels and not just below them.....

So I am not as happy as I would like to be about calling a bottom here.....

That dam Gut again ;)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

dave
did you take that last ym ts1 at 11:09cst ?

tia

j

What TS1, I dont see a TS1 that was filled on the 3 or 5min YM ??

Steve

[jjc]

What TS1, I dont see a TS1 that was filled on the 3 or 5min YM ??

Steve


dave is using a 1min chart on the ym

j

[jjc]

steve, are you getting now a sell ts2 on the nq 3min?

im taking that one

j

[Steve Griffiths]

dave is using a 1min chart on the ym

j

OK, yes Dave likes 1min chart, personally I stay at 3min, but each to their own, as Dave showed earlier with his nice +5R Profit.

More than 1 way to skin a Cat, as they say here in the UK ;)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

steve, are you getting now a sell ts2 on the nq 3min?

im taking that one

j

Looks to be creeping lower....

[jjc]

Looks to be creeping lower....

10 points now if i take profits

should i ride it to target or not is the question

atr way up there right now

what to do what to do

j

[d-day]

dave
did you take that last ym ts1 at 11:09cst ?

tia

j

Hi J.,

No, I did not take the TS1 at 12:08 EST - no divergence on the Dday or elsewhere. I did go short on a DP at 12:19 EST but was stopped out. I am now short from 12676 at 12:28 where we had divergence on a 3rd push up that stopped at the 78.6% retrace. I covered 1 contract at the DP projected off the 12:16 EST low. I was just stopped out of the second contract at the ATR stop 12659 for a total of 2.4R on the trade.

It should be noted that I am trading very very small on these 1 minute charts. My risk is set to a maximum of $140 USD/trade. If this goes well over say 100+ trades, I will be willing to increase my bet size, but for now I'm having fun and doing well to boot.

Total so far today:

+1.3R
-1.0R
Breakeven
+5.1R
+2.4R

Total: +7.8R

[jjc]

10 points now if i take profits

should i ride it to target or not is the question

atr way up there right now

what to do what to do

j

decision has been made

im riding it out to target or get stopped out by atr

please, everyone sell to help me out lol

[d-day]

Hi J.,

No, I did not take the TS1 at 12:08 EST - no divergence on the Dday or elsewhere.

I am not shorting the TS3 on the 1 minute either - that doesn't mean it will not be profitable, but I absolutley will not bend on the divergence qualification on these nano-trades. There is divergence on the 5,3,3 so she might make it to its first WPT (or beyond for that matter) but I like the Dday best on this time frame.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi J.,

Total so far today:

+1.3R
-1.0R
Breakeven
+5.1R
+2.4R

Total: +7.8R

Wow, +7.8R is good trading - well done

Steve

[jjc]

I am not shorting the TS3 on the 1 minute either - that doesn't mean it will not be profitable, but I absolutley will not bend on the divergence qualification on these nano-trades. There is divergence on the 5,3,3 so she might make it to its first WPT (or beyond for that matter) but I like the Dday best on this time frame.


so, only DP's on that ym 1min with 533 divg or dday?

tia

j

[d-day]

I am not shorting the TS3 on the 1 minute either - that doesn't mean it will not be profitable, but I absolutley will not bend on the divergence qualification on these nano-trades. There is divergence on the 5,3,3 so she might make it to its first WPT (or beyond for that matter) but I like the Dday best on this time frame.

That TS3 made it to its second WPT - too bad I wasn't in it, but rules is rules. I'm now long on a DP trade from 12634, we'll see how that goes.

[d-day]

I'm now long on a DP trade from 12634, we'll see how that goes.

Ok, as far as it went, but then I was stopped for -1R.
We're at another DP on the 1 minute YM but no blue reversal bar in sight, so I will await further instructions.

[d-day]

Looks like its Decision Time - do we at least get a short covering Bear market rally?

Or is it 1929 all over again?

[d-day]

August Intraday low on the Dow is but a few points below. I can't see coming all this way and not at least dropping there to say hello. That would be like one of us Yanks swimming over to England and not stopping in to say Hello to Steve.

[jjc]

decision has been made

im riding it out to target or get stopped out by atr

please, everyone sell to help me out lol


made it to target of 1917 !

i must admit, if Steve hadnt come on a tapped us on the shoulder about NQ 3min i would of never looked at it

"jjc says MTP rules" and you can quote me on that !!!

j

[d-day]

August Intraday low on the Dow is but a few points below. I can't see coming all this way and not at least dropping there to say hello. That would be like one of us Yanks swimming over to England and not stopping in to say Hello to Steve.


Well Hello there!

[d-day]

made it to target of 1917 !

i must admit, if Steve hadnt come on a tapped us on the shoulder about NQ 3min i would of never looked at it

"jjc says MTP rules" and you can quote me on that !!!

j



Nice trade J! I wish I had been in this move. Now I don't know if I should be selling new lows or buying them.

[Steve Griffiths]

made it to target of 1917 !

i must admit, if Steve hadnt come on a tapped us on the shoulder about NQ 3min i would of never looked at it

"jjc says MTP rules" and you can quote me on that !!!

j



Hi J,

Glad I could help.

I guess you owe me a Beer when I am next in town ;)

Steve

[tar001]

I got an email from Esignal saying they were going to start charging the CBOT fee on Feb 29th so it sounds like its free till then. Is everyone going to pay it or just trade the ES and NQ? I assume the volume will start to dry up on the ER as it switches to the ICE exchange. Does anyone know if the CME is going to come out with a small cap replacement for the Russell?

[Larry22]

For those of you who are trading the YM, here is an hourly wave count showing that we have probably made a low (5 waves in the last (C)) leg and we have also hit a daily DP.

Notice that we made 5 small waves in the 5th wave, the extension seems to have happened in the first wave as the third and 5th are about equal lenght thE reason why it stopped near 12547 (100%)

Again I must say that even if we have what seems a full count, we can allways have extensions but probabilty seems to be that we should go for a ride up before going down.

Laurent

[jjc]

For those of you who are trading the YM, here is an hourly wave count showing that we have probably made a low (5 waves in the last (C)) leg and we have also hit a daily DP.

Notice that we made 5 small waves in the 5th wave, the extension seems to have happened in the first wave as the third and 5th are about equal lenght thE reason why it stopped near 12547 (100%)

Again I must say that even if we have what seems a full count, we can allways have extensions but probabilty seems to be that we should go for a ride up before going down.

Laurent


Larry

I know nothing about Elliot Wave counts other than what I've heard about at the water cooler. But, isn't wave 3 supposed to be the longest wave?

Good Trading and thanks for the great info

j

[Larry22]

Larry

I know nothing about Elliot Wave counts other than what I've heard about at the water cooler. But, isn't wave 3 supposed to be the longest wave?

Good Trading and thanks for the great info

j

Yup you're right but not allways, there is one rule that says that 2 of the 3 waves in the trend directions tend to have the same lenght, in this case it is the 3rd and the 5th.
If extensions would allways happen in the 3rd wave and if we would allways have a nice 5 wave patterns with nice ABC corrections then we would be millionnaire in a week. :D

Too bad that's not the case. :rolleyes:

Laurent

[d-day]

Larry

I know nothing about Elliot Wave counts other than what I've heard about at the water cooler. But, isn't wave 3 supposed to be the longest wave?

Good Trading and thanks for the great info

j

Wave 3 cannot be the shortest, but it need not be the longest. In commodity bull markets, wave 5 tends to extend, rather than wave 3.

[rrs]

I got an email from Esignal saying they were going to start charging the CBOT fee on Feb 29th so it sounds like its free till then. Is everyone going to pay it or just trade the ES and NQ? I assume the volume will start to dry up on the ER as it switches to the ICE exchange. Does anyone know if the CME is going to come out with a small cap replacement for the Russell?

Hi Tar,

I have stopped trading YM. In terms of liquidity and better fills ES offers a much better deal. My opinion is based on my personal experience of trading both contracts.

As far as ER is concerned, you have two options:

1) Switch your orders to ICE. You will find more info on ICE here: www.theice.com

2) Trade a similar contract at CME: S&P 400 MidCap Emini Futures (Symbol: EMD). Here is the link to the product page: http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/equity/emini-sp-mid400_FO.html

Since I already pay for the full CME data package, my plan is to focus on ES, NQ and EMD.

Rama.

[tar001]

Hey
thanks much for the info!! as I recall you were ONLY trading the YM?
I just checked that link on the EMD but I don't see how much per point? is it like the Russell(100$) I just tried to look at a chart of it but I guess I do not pay for that through Esignal, is there good volume in the day?
I hope you are having a great New Trading Year
:O)


Hi Tar,

I have stopped trading YM. In terms of liquidity and better fills ES offers a much better deal. My opinion is based on my personal experience of trading both contracts.

As far as ER is concerned, you have two options:

1) Switch your orders to ICE. You will find more info on ICE here: www.theice.com

2) Trade a similar contract at CME: S&P 400 MidCap Emini Futures (Symbol: EMD). Here is the link to the product page: http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/equity/emini-sp-mid400_FO.html

Since I already pay for the full CME data package, my plan is to focus on ES, NQ and EMD.

Rama.

[rrs]

Hey
thanks much for the info!! as I recall you were ONLY trading the YM?
I just checked that link on the EMD but I don't see how much per point? is it like the Russell(100$) I just tried to look at a chart of it but I guess I do not pay for that through Esignal, is there good volume in the day?
I hope you are having a great New Trading Year
:O)

Hi Tar,

Thank you for your reply.

For a brief period of time in 2007 I was just focussing my attention on YM only -- mainly for the purpose of collecting some data on trading using some real money.

EMD is very much like ER -- in terms of its point value. I will post a chart with both the symbols in the next few minutes.

With best wishes for a prosperous 2008,

Rama.

[tar001]

hey
and what was your conclusion on real money trading of the YM?
:D



Hi Tar,

Thank you for your reply.

For a brief period of time in 2007 I was just focussing my attention on YM only -- mainly for the purpose of collecting some data on trading using some real money.

EMD is very much like ER -- in terms of its point value. I will post a chart with both the symbols in the next few minutes.

With best wishes for a prosperous 2008,

Rama.

[rrs]

Here is a chart with EMD and ER2

If you click the link called Contract Specifications it will take you to the page that lists all the information (please see the second screen shot attached to this message)

Rama.

[rrs]

hey
and what was your conclusion on real money trading of the YM?
:D

Hi Tar,

It was very profitable. I posted the numbers last year in the forum.

Rama.

[tar001]

Well that was weird? I clicked on that contract specifications link before but it did not have any info?(now it does) thanks much for your reply and let me know how you like trading the EMD, I will more than likely add it to my Esignal package if you find it to be a decent trading vehicle
:D



Here is a chart with EMD and ER2

If you click the link called Contract Specifications it will take you to the page that lists all the information (please see the second screen shot attached to this message)

Rama.

[rrs]

Well that was weird? I clicked on that contract specifications link before but it did not have any info?(now it does) thanks much for your reply and let me know how you like trading the EMD, I will more than likely add it to my Esignal package if you find it to be a decent trading vehicle
:D

I will certainly keep you posted.

Rama.

[edfash]

This is the current wave count on a daily chart of the cash S&P (similar in Dow and futures). We had a wave down that subdivided into 5 waves, suggesting a first impulse wave down. We then had an ABC correction of about 70% of that W1. The current structure has the potential to be a second impulse wave down or W3. This potential W3 has already subdivided into 3 waves and may ultimately form another 5 wave sequence. If this plays out w4 should complete between 1440 1:1 of w2) to 1465 (1.382 of w2). Time will tell.

[edfash]

sorry, forgot the attachment

[edfash]

this is a 3200 tick chart of the es, showing how the final decline was a 5 wave sequence, with the 5th wave subdividing into 5 waves. the yellow w5 is almost a perfect 1:1 displacement of wave 1 onto the beginning of w5 (the red 100% at 1386.67) and a 2.618 extension of wave 1 (the white line). this 2.618 extension of wave 1 is very usefull for projecting exhaustion of an Elliot Wave (this is a true Elliot Wave with wave 3 being the longest wave and there is no overlap of the wave 4 retracement into wave 1).

[d-day]

Anyone else long the TS1 on the 3 minute NQ?

Its momo seems to have lost its mojo. There was momo divergence at time of entry but now busted. Don't you hate when that happens.

[jjc]

i took it dave

j

[TreeShaker]

Anyone else long the TS1 on the 3 minute NQ?

Its momo seems to have lost its mojo. There was momo divergence at time of entry but now busted. Don't you hate when that happens.

Diver looked more neg than pos 2 me Dave, I passed.

[d-day]

Anyone else long the TS1 on the 3 minute NQ?

Its momo seems to have lost its mojo. There was momo divergence at time of entry but now busted. Don't you hate when that happens.



I'm short the YM on a 1 minute trade. ATR is 12761, which means my stop is 12762. I f I am not stopped out on this little bounce and the YM resumes a decline, I will likely exit that NQ trade as best as the market will let me.

[jjc]

the way i see it, we are now in a compressed zone on the nq and its worth a chance to take the ts1 cuz if it breaks it could break hard

im using bollinger bands and keltner bands to indicate that (bbands are light blue color lines on chart)

j

[d-day]

Diver looked more neg than pos 2 me Dave, I passed.

On the 5,3,3 stochastic, I had %D = 27.47 on momo trough proximal to the "a" and %D = 35.92 at the time of entry. Unfortunately, it slipped to %D = 22.6 after entry. These TS1's strike me as a bit more tricky to trade than the DP's or the TS2's and TS3's, but that's probably just me. As it is, I was stopped out of the YM short and I am hanging tough on this NQ long.

[d-day]

we are now in a compressed zone on the nq and ... if it breaks it could break hard

It could break either way, though, right J? Or do you feel that the compression has a higher probability to break to the upside than the downside?

[jjc]

It could break either way, though, right J? Or do you feel that the compression has a higher probability to break to the upside than the downside?

its been a higher odds favorite ito break hard towards the target in the past

we shall see soon if it works today too

j

[d-day]

its been a higher odds favorite ito break hard towards the target in the past

we shall see soon if it works today too

j

Look at this TS3 (no blue reversal bar yet) on the 3 minute YM. We are working on a second inside bar on the 3 minute chart. Did everyone go home until after Uncle Ben flaps his gums this afternoon?





PS - That TS3 is now gone - we never got us a blue reversal bar.

[d-day]

its been a higher odds favorite ito break hard towards the target in the past

we shall see soon if it works today too

j


she's trying

If she can get above and stay above 50.25 we should have a nice ride.

[jjc]

. Did everyone go home until after Uncle Ben flaps his gums this afternoon? .


i cant make anymore wise cracks cuz steve gets mad :)

but, back to the nq...if it does break up i'l bail at first target cuz we will have a dp right above it, whatcha think, good idea or not?

j

[G Fryer]

Look at this TS3 (no blue reversal bar yet) on the 3 minute YM. We are working on a second inside bar on the 3 minute chart. Did everyone go home until after Uncle Ben flaps his gums this afternoon?





PS - That TS3 is now gone - we never got us a blue reversal bar.


There was a signal on the 2min and the 5min YM.

G

[d-day]

i cant make anymore wise cracks cuz steve gets mad :)

but, back to the nq...if it does break up i'l bail at first target cuz we will have a dp right above it, whatcha think, good idea or not?

j



I'd like to have a chance to trail her with the ATR if she'd get in gear to the upside. As it is, I moved my stop up to ticks below breakeven (1 tick below the last pullback) to 43.25. This s getting nerve wracking.

Now if we get there and we get a DP sell signal I guess I would stop and reverse.

[jjc]

I'd like to have a chance to trail her with the ATR .

good idea, i'l do the same - runners it is, and we have a plan sam

j

[d-day]

good idea, i'l do the same - runners it is, and we have a plan sam

j


Great ... now, if someone would kindly open another can of Volatility, cause this one here seems to have lost all of its aerosol.

[davidh]

Dave,
3 min NQ adx is at 4.9 at the moment - kind of 'dead stop'?
What do you think?
D

[d-day]

I'vee been up as much as 2R on this NQ waiting for a breakout. I'm moving my stop to two ticks above breakeven - I see no reason to lose any money on this position at this point.


This like waiting for Godot.

[jjc]

I'vee been up as much as 2R on this NQ waiting for a breakout. I'm moving my stop to two ticks above breakeven - I see no reson to lose any money on this position at this point.


This like waiting for Godot.

ahh, but this ts1 will arrive

[d-day]

Dave,
3 min NQ adx is at 4.9 at the moment - kind of 'dead stop'?
What do you think?
D

I'm no ADXpert but I would guess that whichever way the NQ is heading when ADX rises above 20 next is the direction that she will go in for a spell.

[Steve Griffiths]

ahh, but this ts1 will arrive

Ask and ye will receive................ just reached its profit target, amazing what positive thinking can do :rolleyes:

Good trade there......

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Now at +7R !!!!!

[jjc]

ahh, but this ts1 will arrive

and it arrived with a buy program :)

dang dday, we played this one like a country fiddle

[d-day]

ahh, but this ts1 will arrive


And arrive on a flippin' rocket ship at that!

[davidh]

Wow! So much for 'dead stop' :rolleyes:

[d-day]

and it arrived with a buy program :)

dang dday, we played this one like a country fiddle


She'll be a 10 bagger soon

[Steve Griffiths]

+10R now................. here we go !!

[d-day]

She'll be a 10 bagger soon




10+R and rising!

[jjc]

And arrive on a flippin' rocket ship at that!

yeah, and no afterthefact posts either - real time trading !

oops, i said i wudnt make anymore wise cracks :D

j

[Steve Griffiths]

yeah, and no afterthefact posts either - real time trading !

oops, i said i wudnt make anymore wise cracks :D

j

No worries J.

I am celebrating with you on this one ;)

Well done, another good trade for you there....

Steve

[jjc]

No worries J.

I am celebrating with you on this one ;)

Well done, another good trade for you there....

Steve


lol

oh, and MTP Rules !!!

[d-day]

yeah, and no afterthefact posts either - real time trading !

oops, i said i wudnt make anymore wise cracks :D

j


I bailed near the top of that suxxer - and you will see me no more today. I took 11.5R on that there NQ and addd to the second 7.8 R day on the 1 minute YM I am going out for pizza.

[G Fryer]

Did anyone stop and reverse?

G

[Steve Griffiths]

Wow, a +8.7R Profit at the Typical Wave 3 WPT....

Steve

PS, please excuse the EOD v6.0 screen capture, I was just checking to see that we can read "intraday" (not real-time) ASCII data files.

Plus I thought you would all like to see what the new EOD v6.0 will look like ;)

PPS, still no release date yet......

[jjc]

I bailed near the top of that suxxer - and you will see me no more today. I took 11.5R on that there NQ and addd to the second 7.8 R day on the 1 minute YM I am going out for pizza.

im hitting the nearest pub for a few pints myself

j

[d-day]

Did anyone stop and reverse?

G


Not here - I just took the money and run like the dickens.

[Steve Griffiths]

Very well done Guys

You have both made some HUGE profits here today, so very very well done.....

David, if you carry on like that you will be able to BUY the Pizza parlour. You can then invite us all round and J. can buy the Beers..

Again, well done....

Steve

[d-day]

Wow! So much for 'dead stop' :rolleyes:


If you look at J's earliar post about compression zones you'll see why it an extremely low ADX is as important a signal as a high and rising ADX, imho.

I wonder how many guys talked themselves out of their positions only to watch this rocket ship head off to the moon without them?

[G Fryer]

Bernanke apparently indicated further rate cuts... I guess the market liked that.

G

[davidh]

Well, err, 1 anyway....

[d-day]

Very well done Guys

You have both made some HUGE profits here today, so very very well done.....

David, if you carry on like that you will be able to BUY the Pizza parlour. You can then invite us all round and J. can buy the Beers..

Again, well done....

Steve

Thanks Steve. And do remember, J and I are just a couple of smart-arse Americans, and we don't mean no harm with our sarcasms and wise-cracks.

By the way, I really would not want to trade without MTPredictor, and I cannot understand how anyone serious about trading these markets who comes here day in and day out can do so and not get MTP for themselves.

[d-day]

Now I really am done for the day. See you all tomorrow.

[d-day]

I just got long the ES at 1411.75 on the 3 minute auto DP

[jjc]

I just got long the ES at 1411.75 on the 3 minute auto DP

fwiw dday, 1409.00 is yesterday's point of control - came within a tick of hitting it so u might have a winner

i took it also

j

[d-day]

fwiw dday, 1409.00 is yesterday's point of control - came within a tick of hitting it so u might have a winner

i took it also

j

Thanks for the info j.

She's taking her time, so maybe she'll do us proud like that NQ TS1 did yesterday.

[d-day]

Thanks for the info j.

She's taking her time, so maybe she'll do us proud like that NQ TS1 did yesterday.


Well we finally had a 3 minute bar close where the low of the bar was above entry, so we have lift-off. She sure looks like she has some water in in her rocket fuel right now lol.

[jjc]

Thanks for the info j.

She's taking her time, so maybe she'll do us proud like that NQ TS1 did yesterday.

we are starting a compressed zone now on the 3min es - also on the 3min nq

be careful

j

[jjc]

we are starting a compressed zone now on the 3min es - also on the 3min nq

be careful

j

methinks if we get above 1416 we cud have a runner but what do i know :)

j

[d-day]

methinks if we get above 1416 we cud have a runner but what do i know :)

j

me thinks the same, and I know some folks frown upon scaling out, I did take one off the table at 1416 as we are at the 34 EMA on the 3 minute and that is often a stopping point for bounces. I just hate to sit tight this long and then watch this thing come all the way back without taking some pay for my white knuckles.

[jjc]

scaling out


scaling out, you say? huh, pappy didnt raise no fool here either :D

but i kept enuff to make it worth while, if it does run

j

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Another nice profitable trade there ................ :)

Steve

[d-day]

but i kept enuff to make it worth while, if it does run

j

Me too ... but I just took another at the DP target which also fills the gap and coincides witht he 50 SMA. Trailing with the ATR set to MTP's defaults right now on the rest. I'll keep it that way unless I get a sell signal to go short, in which case I will stop and reverse if triggered.


Isn't anyone else in this?

[d-day]

Hi Guys

Another nice profitable trade there ................ :)

Steve


Hi Steve,

Glad to see you're awake.

The NQ 3 minute also fired a DP but she's a bit more of a nail biter than the ES. The ES DP is a thing of beauty.

This will keep me in Pizza all weekend long.

[jjc]

Me too ... but I just took another at the DP target which also fills the gap and coincides witht he 50 SMA. Trailing with the ATR set to MTP's defaults right now on the rest. I'll keep it that way unless I get a sell signal to go short, in which case I will stop and reverse if triggered.


Isn't anyone else in this?

i've been leaving the atr at default with the rachet on - imo , i see no problem with that at all - it fact, it books a nice profit if i get stopped

j

[davidh]

Hey, I'm beginning to finally get this thing... gritted my teeth and stayed with it and came out with a nice 3R. Pizza for me too...:D

[TreeShaker]

While J & D Day were in the ES I was in the ER2 with the same pattern. I only had 1 lot though rode it up and back down to the ATR for 1R profit. I'll take what I can. Thought about closing at the peak but thought, what if it runs, because stoc. still looked good.

[d-day]

Hey, I'm beginning to finally get this thing... gritted my teeth and stayed with it and came out with a nice 3R. Pizza for me too...:D

That's the toughest thing for me too, David - sticking through these things when they range around my entry for so long. I used to bail every trade after 4 bars if it didn't go my way substantially. However, ever since this Summer's sell-off and the increased volatility, I have noticed that it sometimes takes 5, 8, or 13 bars after entry to get moving. Count the bars from the MTP entry today on this DP and I think you will see that the trade got in gear on the 8th bar. Go figure.

[TreeShaker]

That's the toughest thing for me too, David - sticking through these things when they range around my entry for so long. I used to bail every trade after 4 bars if it didn't go my way substantially. However, ever since this Summer's sell-off and the increased volatility, I have noticed that it sometimes takes 5, 8, or 13 bars after entry to get moving. Count the bars from the MTP entry today on this DP and I think you will see that the trade got in gear on the 8th bar. Go figure.

I'll second that, had a nice EMD trade yesterday, got out on 6th bar and 2 bars later it blast off leaving me on the ground waving goodbye. I will now take more time.

[TreeShaker]

J and D Day, are you in the NQ DP on 3min? I was going to but took me too long.

[jjc]

J and D Day, are you in the NQ DP on 3min? I was going to but took me too long.


i only did the es

congrats on ur trade, awesome

j

[jjc]

i only did the es

congrats on ur trade, awesome

j

and still in on that trade till i get stopped per atr rachet on

j

[d-day]

Call me Shorty!

I closed the ES and I'm short the YM TS3 on the 3 minute chart

[TreeShaker]

The NQ dipped back down and I jumped onboard. It went up to 3R, I took one of 4 off, it went back down to 1.5 R and stopped out the other 3. Feel pretty good about that but looks like no big runners today and maybe should take all off at target.

[jjc]

Call me Shorty!

I closed the ES and I'm short the YM TS3 on the 3 minute chart


good luck shorty - im still long on the es until i get stopped per atr (came close a bit ago)

j

[jjc]

good luck shorty - im still long on the es until i get stopped per atr (came close a bit ago)

j

price is starting to tickle the atr's fancy now and looks like a bearish head and shoulder pattern might be forming on that 3min es - sure was a nice profitable run even tho i get stopped here


j

[d-day]

good luck shorty - im still long on the es until i get stopped per atr (came close a bit ago)

j


Looks like the ATR did take you out of that long ES - nice trade. I'm still short the YM. We had nice Dday divergence at the signal and your BigMove is indicating that we should be ready for a BIG move - I hope it goes my way.

[TreeShaker]

Call me Shorty!

I closed the ES and I'm short the YM TS3 on the 3 minute chart

Looks like its working Shorty:D

[TreeShaker]

price is starting to tickle the atr's fancy now and looks like a bearish head and shoulder pattern might be forming on that 3min es - sure was a nice profitable run even tho i get stopped here


j

How many R out of that J?

[jjc]

Looks like the ATR did take you out of that long ES - nice trade. I'm still short the YM. We had nice Dday divergence at the signal and your BigMove is indicating that we should be ready for a BIG move - I hope it goes my way.

thanks and you know what? im taking the nq ts1 on the 3min that just popped up

not the greastest r/r but it is correcting the lod and my stoch set to 14 3 3 is trying to turn up from oversol - the es has filled its gap but not the nq

we came to trade, huh



j

[jjc]

How many R out of that J?

no fair afterthefact but suffice to say 'mucho r's'

hehe

j

[TreeShaker]

thanks and you know what? im taking the nq ts1 on the 3min that just popped up

not the greastest r/r but it is correcting the lod and my stoch set to 14 3 3 is trying to turn up from oversol - the es has filled its gap but not the nq

we came to trade, huh



j

That NQ was tricky. I almost got in on that also but was too slow. Good thing for me.

[Steve Griffiths]

Looks like the ATR did take you out of that long ES - nice trade. I'm still short the YM. We had nice Dday divergence at the signal and your BigMove is indicating that we should be ready for a BIG move - I hope it goes my way.

Hi David, looks like you are on your way to buying your second Pizza Parlour.........

As the YM starts to decline sharply !!

Another very good day :)

[edfash]

nice back and forth in the ES so far

[jjc]

That NQ was tricky. I almost got in on that also but was too slow. Good thing for me.

dday and i always, without exception, scale out as soon as we get in to greenland - so, even tho i got stopped out i still broke even - minus comis loss - no biggie

(beware, the scale out is not part of MTP rules and it could hamper the r/r - scale out at your own peril)

j

[d-day]

I'm still short the YM. We had nice Dday divergence at the signal and your BigMove is indicating that we should be ready for a BIG move - I hope it goes my way.

TS3 + Dday divergence + Big Move = Big $$'s and a :D



I stopped and reversed at 12703 and I'm long with a 7 tick stop on a 1/2 position. I'll add another 1/2 at 12724 stop as this looks to be a manual DP - pleanty of STF divergence on the 3 minute YM

[d-day]

I stopped and reversed at 12703 and I'm long with a 7 tick stop on a 1/2 position. I'll add another 1/2 at 12724 stop as this looks to be a manual DP - pleanty of STF divergence on the 3 minute YM


Ok, let's see if I played this "too cute by half" as they say. I'm long a wole position with an average price of 12713.5 and my stop is a tick below the LOD. Total risk is .58R and I gobbled down a godly number of R's today so if I lose this one no big deal.

This will likely be my last play of the day.

[TreeShaker]

dday and i always, without exception, scale out as soon as we get in to greenland - so, even tho i got stopped out i still broke even - minus comis loss - no biggie

(beware, the scale out is not part of MTP rules and it could hamper the r/r - scale out at your own peril)

j

In the manual he does describe a trade management that sounds like scaling to me. But what do I know?

[TreeShaker]

TS3 + Dday divergence + Big Move = Big $$'s and a :D



I stopped and reversed at 12703 and I'm long with a 7 tick stop on a 1/2 position. I'll add another 1/2 at 12724 stop as this looks to be a manual DP - pleanty of STF divergence on the 3 minute YM

I was wondering if you were going to reverse or hold your short postion. Good luck.

[G Fryer]

There is a 5min DP buy on the YM. I'm still short the YM on 3min from 12778, but I now have my stop in place to switch and reverse getting me into a long if the DP buy stop is pierced. Just waiting for a direction now...

G

[jjc]

TS3 + Dday divergence + Big Move = Big $$'s and a :D

Nice trading dday

Im looking to long the ym myself but not just yet - maybe when we get above the atr of 12758 - awful lots of horizonal volume right below there

j

[d-day]

Nice trading dday

Im looking to long the ym myself but not just yet - maybe when we get above the atr of 12758 - awful lots of horizonal volume right below there

j

I blew out 1/2 on that crazy spike up. I think I'm getting sea sick lol.

[jjc]

I blew out 1/2 on that crazy spike up. I think I'm getting sea sick lol.

imo, its turning out to be a balanced day so far - might cycle up from here but its too iffy for me to put on a trade now - we may have to zoom out to a longer time frame to see where the next move might come from

keeping my powder dry till late this afternoon



j

[d-day]

I blew out 1/2 on that crazy spike up. I think I'm getting sea sick lol.


Looks like they'll be gunning for the other half soon - stop is still just below the LOD.

[d-day]

Looks like they'll be gunning for the other half soon - stop is still just below the LOD.


I'm out and likely done for the day - this is some crazy swinging here. I couldn't even afford to take the nice auto DP sell on the ER2 which I see has since disappeared.

Is anyone else out there trading?

[TreeShaker]

I'm out and likely done for the day - this is some crazy swinging here. I couldn't even afford to take the nice auto DP sell on the ER2 which I see has since disappeared.

Is anyone else out there trading?

There have been a few post. :p

[stylist]

4959

Dont need to say nothing more

[stylist]

Sorry about the picture but that was TS3 on ym 3 minutes chart
A profit of 8.7 risk units

[d-day]

Sorry about the picture but that was TS3 on ym 3 minutes chart A profit of 8.7 risk units

That's great that you sat through that reaction! I stopped and reversed at the DP, and I did well. I spoke with a couple of guys who were stopped out for +.8/10thsR at the ATR. Tough to hang in a 3 minute chart trade sometimes with that sort of volatility.

Congrats on a great trade.

[stylist]

To be honest im on a break from trading so i didnt made that 8.7 risk units
I just saw that there was a lot of action in the forum and no one mention
this runner
And David the more i read the posts the more im convinced that you are the master trader ;)

[G Fryer]

That's great that you sat through that reaction! I stopped and reversed at the DP, and I did well. I spoke with a couple of guys who were stopped out for +.8/10thsR at the ATR. Tough to hang in a 3 minute chart trade sometimes with that sort of volatility.

Congrats on a great trade.

I also stopped at the DP since the trend looked weak to me. So why would one use the ATR stop on this? Isn't that supposed to be restricted to strong trends, which it was not according to the STF?

Very gutsy to stick it out to the WPT. Short was the way to be on Friday.

Thanks,

Gillian

[rrs]

That's great that you sat through that reaction! I stopped and reversed at the DP, and I did well. I spoke with a couple of guys who were stopped out for +.8/10thsR at the ATR. Tough to hang in a 3 minute chart trade sometimes with that sort of volatility.

Congrats on a great trade.

Hi David,

I looked at the trade setup you, stylist and Gillian were discussing -- the Short TS3 YM in the 3 min time frame. I did not take that trade last Friday because I had prior commitments to take care of on that day.

The problem you highlight in your message -- bounce and retracement of price at a DP that is situated on the way to the ultimate profit targets (in this case the WPT levels) -- has many potential solutions, including the standard, official MTP recommendation Gillian highlights in her message.

As a trader with considerable skill and experience, you may wish to consider and investigate further the idea of using a combination of real time price pivots (RTPP) and trend lines (TL) based on them along with the behaviour of 20-period RSI at 50 level. As you can see from the charts attached to this message, tracking the course of price action closely with the help of RTPP and TL while observing the fact that 20-period RSI had multiple failures in its attempt to cross the 50 level line might have given traders a concrete and objective evidence to stay with the short trade as it underwent, as you mention in your previous message, wild swings. RSI failures at 50 level as the price made its way down was indicative of the fact that the downtrend still had significant momentum behind it.

I have been observing and testing this combination of simple tools for some time, particularly their ability to closely monitor the likely / probable course of price action at these difficult points in the short time frame charts. So far, my experience with this combination has been positive. The measurement provided by this combination certainly helped me find a more simplified and robust answer to the problem of holding a trade during deep price retracement and marked price volatility at a DP level.

Two very important limitations of this analysis that must be noted are:

1) The TLs were drawn on the chart attached to this message at the end of the trading day -- i.e. "it is easy to trade after the market is closed", as Tar (a fellow MTP trader) would say! Even though this particular analysis is an "after the event analysis", I have drawn the TLs on other charts in real time based on two RTPPs. Using the drawing tools in Ninja Trader it is very easy do. I do know that eSignal and TradeStation both have similar drawing tools. More detailed description and the use of RTPPs and TLs based on RTPP are published elsewhere. I will be happy to send you a copy of the article if you are interested.

2) To get to the profit targets shown in the charts attached, a trader would have to answer in his / her own mind two difficult, practical questions and make a very subjective decision. The questions are: when do you move the initial stop to breakeven point and at what stage of the trade should the trader switch over to the ATR stop system and track the trade closely? (If I remember correctly, Steve, in his latest weekly webinar, touches on this question briefly.) I suspect each advanced trader will have his / her own answers to these two questions that is largely based on their own level of risk and stress tolerance.

With best wishes for good luck and good trading in 2008,

Sincerely,

Rama.

[d-day]

TS1 short sig on the 3 minute ER2 - sell stop 711.7 with initial stop loss at 713.1. We have a red reversal bar, but no trigger yet.


Actually it triggered as I was typing the above, so I'm short the ER2

[d-day]

TS1 short sig on the 3 minute ER2 , so I'm short the ER2

Not anymore I'm not ;)

[AndyvB]

David:
Tried the NQ at same time and bailed then..

[davidh]

Not anymore I'm not ;)

Hi Dave,
Yes, I was stopped on that one too. Another TS3 then appeared short on AB at typ wpt on my eSignal but disappeared on 2nd bar after 'extreme'. Anyway, I didn't take it because of that... (probably going to head south now)

[AndyvB]

Glad to see i was not the only one suckered into this trade...LOL!

[d-day]

I'm short the TS3 on the 3 minute ER2 right now. I see that the signal has since vanished from my screen in order to conceal the evidence lol.

I still have the WPT's there though to prove I wasn't seeing things.

So I'm short the ER2 at 713.7. There is this pesky little up trendline that keeps supporting the er2, but the whole thing looks like a big bear flag that needs to break loose, so I'm sticking ith out.

[ClaphamTrader]

TS1 short sig on the 3 minute ER2 - sell stop 711.7 with initial stop loss at 713.1. We have a red reversal bar, but no trigger yet.


Actually it triggered as I was typing the above, so I'm short the ER2
I saw this buit passed as it's a TS1. My personal experience the past few weeks is that TS1 signal have not been profitable for me and hence am wary fo them until I get some more data.

And behold this one fails again:eek:
No profit by 1R saved.

DP, TS3 and TS2 seems to perform much better.
Has anyone else noticed thios with TS1s? (for the YM and ER2 anyway)

[davidh]

I'm short the TS3 on the 3 minute ER2 right now. I see that the signal has since vanished from my screen in order to conceal the evidence lol.

I still have the WPT's there though to prove I wasn't seeing things.

So I'm short the ER2 at 713.7. There is this pesky little up trendline that keeps supporting the er2, but the whole thing looks like a big bear flag that needs to break loose, so I'm sticking ith out.

I think the prematurely vanishing signals are a bit of a bug in the current eSignal version. I have reported this and hope it is fixed in the next release. Interestingly I can still click on the high bar with 'analysis' and get the wpt's put on the chart even though the TS signal has long gone.

[G Fryer]

I'm short the TS3 on the 3 minute ER2 right now. I see that the signal has since vanished from my screen in order to conceal the evidence lol.

I still have the WPT's there though to prove I wasn't seeing things.

So I'm short the ER2 at 713.7. There is this pesky little up trendline that keeps supporting the er2, but the whole thing looks like a big bear flag that needs to break loose, so I'm sticking ith out.

It showed up as a TS1 for me too, and was confirmed a few minutes later on the 5min chart.

G

[d-day]

I saw this buit passed as it's a TS1. My personal experience the past few weeks is that TS1 signal have not been profitable for me and hence am wary fo them until I get some more data.

And behold this one fails again:eek:
No profit by 1R saved.

DP, TS3 and TS2 seems to perform much better.
Has anyone else noticed thios with TS1s? (for the YM and ER2 anyway)

We all traded a TS1 on the 3 minute NQ last week that made enough profit to take care of almost 12 losses, so while I agree that the TS1's seem lower probability, when one does hit, it usually is a big 'un.

So I'll keep trading them for the time being.

[d-day]

BTW I did just get long the YM at 12753 but not based on an MTP set-up ... and I am still short the ER2 on that 3 minute TS3 which has since re-appeared. I guess its doing well enough to show its face again lol.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Davidh

Yes I am not sure why that particular TS3 sell label disappeared, particularly as it was there after changing time frames and then back again. I have asked our programme to take a look immediately for you.

BTW, a nice trade though, just reached the first profit target for +3.5R :)

Steve

[ClaphamTrader]

We all traded a TS1 on the 3 minute NQ last week that made enough profit to take care of almost 12 losses, so while I agree that the TS1's seem lower probability, when one does hit, it usually is a big 'un.

So I'll keep trading them for the time being.
Dang! One I missed. Although personally I doubt if I would not have got a 12R out oif it as I peel off 25 or 50% at the various targets rather than staying with the ATR the whole way.
I find it works better for me.

I'm trying to backtest this over a much larger set of data, say 1-2 years, but find it very timeconsuming noting backtesting signals from the charts.
There does not seem to be any easy way of getting data out en masse.