US Markets: Real-time Trading

[d-day]

Thanks Steve,
Is it constant or arbitrary?

They are arbitrarily set by the exchange as a way to protect commercial interests and kill the little guy on a constant basis.

[d-day]

I'm with you - short the YM at 11998

Currrently we're at 11971 and I closed out at 11974. We may get to the WPT but I've been waiting for a DP buy for hours now and they refuse to sell this market even a wee bit. I may kick myself later for exiting early, but I'm out of that short for now.

[TreeShaker]

They are arbitrarily set by the exchange as a way to protect commercial interests and kill the little guy on a constant basis.

So there is no way to know at what point they will say no more movement?

[d-day]

So there is no way to know at what point they will say no more movement?

Limits are set by the exchages and you can go to the exchanges web site where they are published. If you go to the web site of the exchange in question you will be able to find out what the limit is.

[G Fryer]

So there is no way to know at what point they will say no more movement?

You can look up the limits for commodities... so you can probably find them for the indices as well. DDay was being cynical. They are supposed to stop market panic and tumulting program trading. It hurts the little guy because you can't get out of a trade at any price until the market is reopened and at that point you could be a pauper. If you read some of the market books (like Market Wizards), you will observe that there have been days on end when markets have been limit up or down and traders haven't been able to get out.

Gillian

[G Fryer]

Nix on the ES short.

Gillian

[TreeShaker]

Currrently we're at 11971 and I closed out at 11974. We may get to the WPT but I've been waiting for a DP buy for hours now and they refuse to sell this market even a wee bit. I may kick myself later for exiting early, but I'm out of that short for now.

Good decision, I was in the NQ (same trade) and lost .6R. If it stays this way we all could go for a walk.:rolleyes:

[TreeShaker]

You can look up the limits for commodities... so you can probably find them for the indices as well. DDay was being cynical. They are supposed to stop market panic and tumulting program trading. It hurts the little guy because you can't get out of a trade at any price until the market is reopened and at that point you could be a pauper. If you read some of the market books (like Market Wizards), you will observe that there have been days on end when markets have been limit up or down and traders haven't been able to get out.

Gillian

Where do you find this info. I went to Globex and can't find anything. It would be good to know and maybe prevent what you describe above.

[G Fryer]

Ok, one more time: NQ TS3 sell @ 13:15. Red STF and RSI reversing.

Gillian

[jojab]

5 min TS3 shorts on ES, NQ and YM

[d-day]

5 min TS3 shorts on ES, NQ and YM


Good luck. Today now looks like a trend day up to me so I'm looking for buy set -ups for now and expecting us to end at or near a fresh HOD.

[TreeShaker]

Good luck. Today now looks like a trend day up to me so I'm looking for buy set -ups for now and expecting us to end at or near a fresh HOD.

Starting to get some buy signals, but diver isn't real encouraging, IMHO.

[G Fryer]

Got shut out of an ES buy. Very frustrating.

Gillian

[davidh]

I've been waiting for buys as well. Wonder if we will get advanced TS3 long eg on the ES if it gets below 1301.50
D

[TreeShaker]

I've been waiting for buys as well. Wonder if we will get advanced TS3 long eg on the ES if it gets below 1301.50
D

I think the only thing that has advanced today is our brokers profit. LOL:rolleyes:

[travelinman]

Limits are set by the exchages and you can go to the exchanges web site where they are published. If you go to the web site of the exchange in question you will be able to find out what the limit is.

Here is a link to the CME site for Daily Price Limits for Index Futures
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/EquityIndexPriceLimitGuide.pdf

[jojab]

Good luck. Today now looks like a trend day up to me so I'm looking for buy set -ups for now and expecting us to end at or near a fresh HOD.

I wrote NQ in my prior post but it should have been the ER. The ER did hit its first target. Didn't matter to me because I took the ES and it came within 2 ticks of the target then reversed. I ended up out at BE.

[TreeShaker]

Here is a link to the CME site for Daily Price Limits for Index Futures
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/EquityIndexPriceLimitGuide.pdf

Thanks for the post. I finally opened the IB flashing red banner and it said that Globex closed NQ trading because it hit limit. I'm not sure what time they did that because the chart seemed to keep moving up and down.

[G Fryer]

I think the NQ was temporarily closed overnight. It was open during regular hours and as we now all know, the trend was UP, which means it wouldn't have been shut down again anyway.

G

[jjc]

WARNING - THIS CONTAINS THE F- WORD

The point of me showing you this is that you should use MTP money management rules !

This fellow traded 10 ER2 contracts. You can hear his software in the background telling him to bail with a 7k loss but he ignored his money management rules. Loss 30k.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCtQL5b_rCM

[d-day]

WARNING - THIS CONTAINS THE F- WORD

The point of me showing you this is that you should use MTP money management rules !

This fellow traded 10 ER2 contracts. You can hear his software in the background telling him to bail with a 7k loss but he ignored his money management rules. Loss 30k.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCtQL5b_rCM


Thanks j - we should all watch this every morning before we sit down to trade just as a reminder of thew reason why we trade according to rules - rules that include position sizing and stop losses active in the market per MTPredictor standards.

[jjc]

Thanks j - we should all watch this every morning before we sit down to trade just as a reminder of thew reason why we trade according to rules - rules that include position sizing and stop losses active in the market per MTPredictor standards.

Don't bother trying to view the YouTube video. YouTube has removed it from 'their' site


j

[billm]

How do you make your log? I assume that this post is a copy/paste. I just use pencil and paper and wouldn't want to type all that for a post so I didn't think you typed all that just for a post.


Hello TreeShaker,

After 4pm CT I type the info into a rudimentary excel blotter. It gives me some trade specific information and forces me to review/evaluate each trade. My copy and paste didn't come through too well yesterday. The blotter has columns across as follows:
time, buy/sell, contract, fill price, pft/loss, execution cost, net p/l

Regarding limit moves, they're not so much of an issue in the indices since their expansion. You can check out the exchange details at:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/floorPassout.pdf
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/EquityIndexPriceLimitGuide.pdf
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/market-data/pc010208a_SA.html
http://www.nyse.com/press/1167392590947.html

When I am actively trading indices and the environment is volitive enough I keep an easy reference like the attached (hopefully) excel calculation.

Hope this helps,

-billm

[TreeShaker]

Hello TreeShaker,

After 4pm CT I type the info into a rudimentary excel blotter. It gives me some trade specific information and forces me to review/evaluate each trade. My copy and paste didn't come through too well yesterday. The blotter has columns across as follows:
time, buy/sell, contract, fill price, pft/loss, execution cost, net p/l

Regarding limit moves, they're not so much of an issue in the indices since their expansion. You can check out the exchange details at:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/floorPassout.pdf
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/EquityIndexPriceLimitGuide.pdf
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/market-data/pc010208a_SA.html
http://www.nyse.com/press/1167392590947.html

When I am actively trading indices and the environment is volitive enough I keep an easy reference like the attached (hopefully) excel calculation.

Hope this helps,

-billm

Just to make sure I understand: You have an Excel form that calculates the values and if the day seems volitive you plug the current values in and get automatic results that you print out and post next to your screen. Is that right?

[Russell Stagg]

As a PS,


PS. I wish I had a $1 each time somebody just asked us about win/loss ratio without putting it into context of the size of winners and losers ;)

Well, to be fair I understand the context - my question was why has a very stable win loss ratio of around 40% dropped to 30% on a 1 min time frame.
And forgive me but there are no scratch trades on his posted blotter -$30 is not a scratch trade - its' a loss?

[billm]

Just to make sure I understand: You have an Excel form that calculates the values and if the day seems volitive you plug the current values in and get automatic results that you print out and post next to your screen. Is that right?

Yes, I type in date and settlement prices.

[jojab]

3 min YM TS3 short...already hit min. target...out at +2.7R

[jjc]

this es 3min ts3 hit the spot :)

j

[Steve Griffiths]

3 min YM TS3 short...already hit min. target...out at +2.7R

Nice quick profit there :)

Steve

[scJohn]

Yep, good sells on the ES and YM 3-minute chart. However, by the time I did the Analysis prices had already fallen below the entry point on both trades and neither traded back to the signal price. I never got filled on my limit orders. :(

Had this happen yesterday on a trade. Newbie here, so what does one do in this situation? Try and chase? Use different order type? Just wait for the next set up?

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi John,

You have to be quick when real-time trading ;)

Steve

[G Fryer]

Yep, good sells on the ES and YM 3-minute chart. However, by the time I did the Analysis prices had already fallen below the entry point on both trades and neither traded back to the signal price. I never got filled on my limit orders. :(

Had this happen yesterday on a trade. Newbie here, so what does one do in this situation? Try and chase? Use different order type? Just wait for the next set up?

NEVER chase! You will learn to make faster decisions, or look at slightly longer time frames so you have more room to think. There is such a thing as fear of 'pulling the trigger,' but if a trade has escaped you, just relax and wait for the next signal. Also be aware that you will have losses, if you trade, you cannot escape that.

Gillan

[Steve Griffiths]

NEVER chase! You will learn to make faster decisions, or look at slightly longer time frames so you have more room to think. There is such a thing as fear of 'pulling the trigger,' but if a trade has escaped you, just relax and wait for the next signal. Also be aware that you will have losses, if you trade, you cannot escape that.

Gillan

Hi G.

Good advice there............

Steve

[jjc]

long on ES 5min TS3 @ 1287.25


j

[G Fryer]

long on ES 5min TS3 @ 1287.25


j

I didn't get that signal, but I am in a long YM DP @ 11802, signal @ 12:15

Gillian

[TreeShaker]

long on ES 5min TS3 @ 1287.25


j

That signal appeared on my charts, noticed after your post, but the NT alert never went off. That stinks. Good luck on that trade, it looks good.:cool:

[jojab]

[QUOTE=scJohn;Had this happen yesterday on a trade. Newbie here, so what does one do in this situation? Try and chase? Use different order type? Just wait for the next set up?[/QUOTE]

Personally, I would not use limit orders to enter the trade. You don't want to miss the trade by a tick or two. You'll miss the ones that run from the start and you will always catch every trade that gets stopped out.

Ideally you want to have the stop order ready to go. You can then adjust the number of contracts, the entry price slightly, etc.

[TreeShaker]

this es 3min ts3 hit the spot :)

j

J could you please draw a couple of more lines on your chart? All that empty space makes me feel as though something is lacking. LOL

[G Fryer]

Stopped out on the YM long.

G

[jjc]

J could you please draw a couple of more lines on your chart? All that empty space makes me feel as though something is lacking. LOL


sorry about that.

i use gann a lot and i didnt get rid of it for posting


j

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Are you sure about these buys, they look to be against a red (down trend) STF ?

Steve

[TreeShaker]

It looks like long trades are dangerous for now and no signal setups to the downside, except the earlier posted short.

[TreeShaker]

Hi Guys,

Are you sure about these buys, they look to be against a red (down trend) STF ?

Steve

Aren't DPs usually against the STF color? It's just that these DPs decided to keep going, but only after sucking in some daring money.

[jojab]

Hi Guys,

Are you sure about these buys, they look to be against a red (down trend) STF ?

Steve

I didn't get the long TS3 on the 3 min. (I have NT charts/IB data). My STF was mainly red during that time but it did have a few black bars.

[TreeShaker]

Short ER2 TS3 1min

[TreeShaker]

Stopped out for .6R lose. All morn the up signals having been robbing traders and as soon as I take a short position it decides to go up. Go figure.:mad:

[jojab]

TS2 shorts on 5 min YM and ES. TS3 shorts on 3 min NQ and ER.

I'm short the ER.

[jojab]

TS2 shorts on 5 min YM and ES. TS3 shorts on 3 min NQ and ER.

I'm short the ER.

Stopped out.

[jjc]

Stopped out.

same here.

so much for red stf's


j

[jojab]

Short again...this time the NQ 3 min. TS3.

[jojab]

Short again...this time the NQ 3 min. TS3.

Stopped out again...

[TreeShaker]

Is anyone in a long position?

[d-day]

Is anyone in a long position?

I'm long since 1:12 on a 1 minute ES DP but I've been doing quick ins and out on the YM

[Steve Griffiths]

Yes,

Nice to see how the low of the day on the YM was right at the DP support level as well....

Steve

[d-day]

$INDU is fighting the 3/14/07 low as resistance here - a Battle Royale between the Bulls and the Bears.



Pass the pop corn.

[Steve Griffiths]

Also at the DP form earlier in the day on the YM............

Steve

[Eddo]

Ya hooooooooooooooo

Who needs the YM??

After three losing trades today my fourth came in like a goodun and turned a 3 R loss into a min 4R Gain with the position still running

Thank you MTP, thank you MTP ......... thank you MTP :) :) :)

PS - I am really pleased ! did you all guess??

[d-day]

TS3 sell on the 60 minute ES - any takers? Sell stop 1328.5 with an initial stop loss at 1339.

7R at the first target

[Eddo]

TS3 sell on the 60 minute ES - any takers? Sell stop 1328.5 with an initial stop loss at 1339.

7R at the first target


Not with this heavy buying Volume David - I'am staying long

[Angel]

Hello Chris,

WELL done for your last trade !!!

You never give up, what a wonderful lesson !!!!

Because I have never trade the Dow Jones Industrial, what's the exact name of this contract (with eSignal) and is it a E-Mini CME product ?

Thanks

Happy trading

Angel

[Steve Griffiths]

Ya hooooooooooooooo

Who needs the YM??

After three losing trades today my fourth came in like a goodun and turned a 3 R loss into a min 4R Gain with the position still running

Thank you MTP, thank you MTP ......... thank you MTP :) :) :)

PS - I am really pleased ! did you all guess??

Well done Chris, nice to see that, as usual, you are on top of your Game here.

Yep that DP certainly nailed the low perfectly.

Then, there was the DP continuation trade, (attached on the YM) that would have had you long into the close, so I agree, a great day yesterday on the Dow.

Steve

PS, nice to see that this strong rally was also coming off good Daily support (which I posed a day ago), so this strong rally should have come as no surprise to anybody.

So again, well done Chris - as usual some good profits for you - well done

[jjc]

What do you guys think? Go long today and stay long?

Jan 24, 2008 WASHINGTON - House Democratic and Republican leaders are looking for imminent agreement with the White House on an emergency package to jolt the economy out of its slump after negotiators on all sides made significant concessions at a late-night bargaining session.


j

[scJohn]

Steve,
Since I am new to all of this I am assuming that the DP trade on the YM was a manual one.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi John,

Please see http://www.mtpredictor.com/support/Webinars2.html for some recorded webinars that cover the manual DP trade as well as the DP continuation trade set-ups

Thanks

Steve

[d-day]

Steve,
Since I am new to all of this I am assuming that the DP trade on the YM was a manual one.

A "DP Continuation" trade is a DP trade that didn't work lol

Steve, do you have any plans for scripting an algorithm that will signal when a DP trade should be trend following rather than the traditional counter trend?

[d-day]

What do you guys think? Go long today and stay long?

Jan 24, 2008 WASHINGTON - House Democratic and Republican leaders are looking for imminent agreement with the White House on an emergency package to jolt the economy out of its slump after negotiators on all sides made significant concessions at a late-night bargaining session.


j

I just got long at 1338 with a stop under the LOD and I'm hoping to be long still at 4 PM

Good luck today

[Steve Griffiths]

A "DP Continuation" trade is a DP trade that didn't work lol


No, a "decision Point" is just that - a point at which the market will make a "decision" to reverse or carry on the trend.

As you all know, this can be used for a trend reversal trade or a trend continuation trade

Steve

[TreeShaker]

I just got long at 1338 with a stop under the LOD and I'm hoping to be long still at 4 PM

Good luck today

What are you trading? It looks like it must be the ES. I don't have any signals on the ES or pos. diver.:confused:

[jjc]

I just got long at 1338 with a stop under the LOD and I'm hoping to be long still at 4 PM

Good luck today


Good luck to you too.

I'm going to try and ride that 'highway 45' degree for as long as I can


j

[d-day]

Steve,
Since I am new to all of this I am assuming that the DP trade on the YM was a manual one.


New to MTPland?

Welcome aboard!

[d-day]

What are you trading? It looks like it must be the ES. I don't have any signals on the ES or pos. diver.:confused:

Put your 5,3,3 stochastic on a 1 minute ES 24 hour and you will see a beautiful divergence into the LOD. I do not wait for MTP to geive me a signal. I remember Pegasus posted once recently that he doesn't need a DP to trade divergence - that is how powerful divergence is. If you have a nice oscillator divergence pattern, you must go with the divergence. Just because your computer doesn't ring a bell doesn't mean that a trad is not at this very moment being signalled. It just means that the set-up is not programmed into an alert.

I'm using the ES as my preferred vehicle in case of trending moves, and I trade in and out of the YM.

[Eddo]

Hello Chris,

WELL done for your last trade !!!

You never give up, what a wonderful lesson !!!!

Because I have never trade the Dow Jones Industrial, what's the exact name of this contract (with eSignal) and is it a E-Mini CME product ?

Thanks

Happy trading

Angel


Hi Angel - thanks for your kind words

With eSignal the Dow30 is $INDU

Good luck with it

Chris

[TreeShaker]

Put your 5,3,3 stochastic on a 1 minute ES 24 hour and you will see a beautiful divergence into the LOD. I do not wait for MTP to geive me a signal. I remember Pegasus posted once recently that he doesn't need a DP to trade divergence - that is how powerful divergence is. If you have a nice oscillator divergence pattern, you must go with the divergence. Just because your computer doesn't ring a bell doesn't mean that a trad is not at this very moment being signalled. It just means that the set-up is not programmed into an alert.

I'm using the ES as my preferred vehicle in case of trending moves, and I trade in and out of the YM.

Could you post a chart? I tried those settings and didn't see pos diver, at best it was flat on the bottom.

Regarding the YM (and the ER2) the high of the day DP short seems to be alive and well albeit moving at a snail pace. :p

[d-day]

Could you post a chart? I tried those settings and didn't see pos diver, at best it was flat on the bottom.

Here you go ... as you can see that divergence was so sharp it could cut you on my chart.

[scJohn]

I got a DP short on ES 03-08 5-minute and another DP short on NQ 03-08 on the 5-minute. Hopefully I have interpreted the divergence on NTPSTF. Lunch time is not a good time for trading. Looks like today is going to a consolidation day after yesterday's large range.

[TreeShaker]

Here you go ... as you can see that divergence was so sharp it could cut you on my chart.

Thanks David, I was looking at a long span than you were. Now I see why you said the diver was sharp. I'm still learning to look at charts from different angles. There is soooo much to consider.

[TreeShaker]

I got a DP short on ES 03-08 5-minute and another DP short on NQ 03-08 on the 5-minute. Hopefully I have interpreted the divergence on NTPSTF. Lunch time is not a good time for trading. Looks like today is going to a consolidation day after yesterday's large range.

The consolidation is so tight that if we were in a hospital we would pronounce the patient dead re: straight line signal. :p

[jjc]

Took the nq 3min ts3

still remain bias long for the day tho


j

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 5-minute. out at trailing stop for 0.8R. Traded down to the prior low and then bounced.

NQ 03-08 5-minute. still in trade. Also bounced at prior low.

[TreeShaker]

Took the nq 3min ts3

still remain bias long for the day tho


j

Looks like your minimum is 1R. :)

[davidh]

I took the 'advanced' ES 3min TS3 short (stf filter off) for 1.5 R
Should probably not have used the ATR stop in these volatile times, but a bird in the hand...
Good trading,
David

[d-day]

I got a DP short on ES 03-08 5-minute and another DP short on NQ 03-08 on the 5-minute. Hopefully I have interpreted the divergence on NTPSTF. Lunch time is not a good time for trading. Looks like today is going to a consolidation day after yesterday's large range.

scJohn,

Are you in two trades going the same direction at the same time? If so, I believe that MTP would suggest that you only allocate 1/2 of a full position to each market as this is a highly correlated trade.

[jjc]

Looks like your minimum is 1R. :)

Did you take it also? - congrats if u did

j

[TreeShaker]

Did you take it also? - congrats if u did

j

No J, I have been resting from my entry error this morning that cost me 2R due to incorrect placement of entry and by the time I could close I was down 2R already. :eek: Needed to regain my composure. :o

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 5-minute. out stop for 1.3R. prices again traded down to test the low. made a higher low. moved stop to 1 tick above the previous high.

[jjc]

No J, I have been resting from my entry error this morning that cost me 2R due to incorrect placement of entry and by the time I could close I was down 2R already. :eek: Needed to regain my composure. :o

I hate it when that happens :)


j

[jjc]

13cst - going short on es for a quick profit - target 1342.00

j

[jjc]

13cst - going short on es for a quick profit - target 1342.00

j

stopped out - i hate it when that happens :mad:

j

[TAS]

I hate myself for missing the massive long manual DP trade yesterday, I know chance would be much LESS the day after...

Anyway, happy trading or just sitting there to any MTPer...ENJOY THE DAY!

TAS

[jjc]

Is anyone going to try those DP's on the 3min nq or es?

j

[TreeShaker]

We are getting 15min DP shorts on some of the instruments now. Could we have topped out for the day?

[jjc]

Is anyone going to try those DP's on the 3min nq or es?

j

shorted that es pig at 1352.00

trailing now

j

[d-day]

Is anyone going to try those DP's on the 3min nq or es?

j

Hi J,

I went short ES at 1355.75 target 1300 and I'll hold it overnight if I'm not stopped out in the meanwhile.

d-day

[rrs]

Here you go ... as you can see that divergence was so sharp it could cut you on my chart.

Hi David,

Congratulations on catching that great divergence trade! Divergence is one of the very few time tested and enduring price patern that consistently makes money if it is a part of a system with a strict risk and money management elements.

The three peaks in price and stochastic oscillator that are seen prior to the trade you highlight in your chart also gave an excellent divergence trade signal -- in this case it happens to be a Triple Divergence signal. Did you take that trade also?

With best wishes,

Rama.

[jjc]

Hi J,

I went short ES at 1355.75 target 1300 and I'll hold it overnight

nice - i waited longer than i shud of, but im still happy

j

[d-day]

shorted that es pig at 1352.00

trailing now

j


Hi j,

Good luck. I shorted it three times for +2points each time before I finally got filled on that sell limit.

d

[jjc]

Hi j,

Good luck. I shorted it three times for +2points each time before I finally got filled on that sell limit.

d

Thx and same to you

my runners are stop at entry

me-nots taking any of these to bed tho, like you are

j

[d-day]

Hi David,

Congratulations on catching that great divergence trade! Divergence is one of the very few time tested and enduring price patern that consistently makes money if it is a part of a system with a strict risk and money management elements.

The three peaks in price and stochastic oscillator that are seen prior to the trade you highlight in your chart also gave an excellent divergence trade signal -- in this case it happens to be a Triple Divergence signal. Did you take that trade also?

With best wishes,

Rama.

Hi Rama,

I shorted the ES twice - at the second peak and then at the triple peak. I enter and manage these trades differently from standard MTP rules. On the second peak where I first went short, the 9:54 EST bar closed at 1452.50. I immediatley placed a sell limit order for 1 tick below the close of that bar, with a stop loss two points above my entry price. If filled, I place a buy limit to close half the position at +2 points. If filled, I move the stop to breakeven on the remaining contracts. I have found that using a fixed two point stop loss keeps me in otherwise profitable trades that I would have been stoped out of per MTP 1 tick rules. I still use MTP rules for most MTPredictor signalled trades, however. I was stopped at entry on the second half of that first position. I the placed a sell limit order 1 tick below the 1354.25 close of the 10:04 EST bar. Same procedure - I took a +2 point profit on half and ran the secon half until the next signal, which is the long trade I posted that you referenced in your post.


Have a great day,

d-day

[TreeShaker]

Here you go ... as you can see that divergence was so sharp it could cut you on my chart.

How did you get into this trade? When you saw the blue reversal bar did you then look for divergence and then placed the order before the bar even closed? Or maybe as soon as it closed? Waited for the second bar to confirm direction?

This 1 min. trading seems to be working quite nicely for you Dave. :D

[jjc]

Hi Rama,

I shorted the ES twice - at the second peak and then at the triple peak.
d-day


when we shorted the es it had a '3 peaks and a doomed house' pattern :)

or darn close to it



j

[d-day]

How did you get into this trade? When you saw the blue reversal bar did you then look for divergence and then placed the order before the bar even closed? Or maybe as soon as it closed? Waited for the second bar to confirm direction?

This 1 min. trading seems to be working quite nicely for you Dave. :D

I do not keep MTP on my open chart (I have it on my charts running in the background) so reversal bars are immaterial. I placed a buy limit 1tick above the close of that bar. As I recall, I actually had to wait for price to come back to fill me and I thought I had missed the trade and I was about to change my order so I could close out my shorts. Price did come back enough to fill me at the 1438 limit price. If you are asking how I "knew" price would reverse there and the divergence would print intact, the short answer is I didn't. I did know 1) we were in a DP support zone, and 2) I also knew that 10:15-10:45 is prime reversal time, and 3) I knew that price pattern is one I have seen thousands of times in the past and probably 5-15 times per week, and 4) I knew that if I were wrong I had a stop loss limiting my loss to two points/contract and that I'd not only live to keep trading, but I would still have the bulk of my profits from my first 3 trades. Not every trade is a winner. I did add to my longs at 1346.50 at 12:16 EST and price only reached 1448.25 before reversing and taking out my stop for a two point/contract loss on those longs. When I write about "busted divergence" I mean a trade where the divergence, either actual or anticipated, is negated by a new momentum extreme after entry. That's what stop losses are for.

I hope that helps.

d-day

PS I also didn't mention, but I had super nice divergence on my Dday.efs, which makes the trade a no-brainer. I used the 5,3,3 in this pic, because I know that you have access to it. My one losing trade today had 5,3,3 divergence, but no divergence on the Dday. That being said, I take any trade where there is divergence on either the 5,3,3 or the Dday. No indicator is infallible.

[TreeShaker]

I do not keep MTP on my open chart (I have it on my charts running in the background) so reversal bars are immaterial. I placed a buy limit 1tick above the close of that bar. As I recall, I actually had to wait for price to come back to fill me and I thought I had missed the trade and I was about to change my order so I could close out my shorts. Price did come back enough to fill me at the 1438 limit price. If you are asking how I "knew" price would reverse there and the divergence would print intact, the short answer is I didn't. I did know 1) we were in a DP support zone, and 2) I also knew that 10:15-10:45 is prime reversal time, and 3) I knew that price pattern is one I have seen thousands of times in the past and probably 5-15 times per week, and 4) I knew that if I were worng I had a stop loss limiting my loss to two points/contract and that I'd not only live to keep trading, but I would still have the bulk of my profits from my first 3 trades. Not every trade is a winner. I did add to my longs at 1346.50 at 12:16 EST and price only reached 1448.25 before reversing and taking out my stop for a two point/contract loss on those longs. When I write about "busted divergence" I mean a trade where the divergence, either actual or anticipated, is negated by a new momentum extreme after entry. That's what stop losses are for.

I hope that helps.

d-day

PS I also didn't mention, but I had super nice divergence on my Dday.efs, which makes the trade a no-brainer. I used the 5,3,3 in this pic, because I know that you have access to it. My one losing trade today had 5,3,3 divergence, but no divergence on the Dday. That being said, I take any trade where there is divergence on either the 5,3,3 or the Dday. No indicator is infallible.

Thanks Dave, that was a lengthy post and I appreciate you taking the time.:)

[rrs]

Hi Rama,

I shorted the ES twice - at the second peak and then at the triple peak. I enter and manage these trades differently from standard MTP rules. On the second peak where I first went short, the 9:54 EST bar closed at 1452.50. I immediatley placed a sell limit order for 1 tick below the close of that bar, with a stop loss two points above my entry price. If filled, I place a buy limit to close half the position at +2 points. If filled, I move the stop to breakeven on the remaining contracts. I have found that using a fixed two point stop loss keeps me in otherwise profitable trades that I would have been stoped out of per MTP 1 tick rules. I still use MTP rules for most MTPredictor signalled trades, however. I was stopped at entry on the second half of that first position. I the placed a sell limit order 1 tick below the 1354.25 close of the 10:04 EST bar. Same procedure - I took a +2 point profit on half and ran the secon half until the next signal, which is the long trade I posted that you referenced in your post.


Have a great day,

d-day

Hi David,

Thanks for your reply.

I use a similar trade management for non-MTP divergence trades, with major focus on exponential moving averages (EMA) as potential profit targets. Later this evening I will post a chart that illustrates my exit strategy.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[rrs]

Hi David,

Thanks for your reply.

I use a similar trade management for non-MTP divergence trades, with major focus on exponential moving averages (EMA) as potential profit targets. Later this evening I will post a chart that illustrates my exit strategy.

Sincerely,

Rama.

I am attaching three 1 min charts of ES that show the same non-MTP divergence signals (DS) highlighted by David's message. The black dotted line is the stochastic. Two EMAs of different length are also plotted -- the RED line represents 20 EMA and the BLUE line represents the 60 EMA. (The 60 EMA on a 1 min chart represents, approximately, the behaviour of 20 EMA of a higher time frame --in this case I have chosen a higher time frame that is, by convention, thrice as long as the trading time frame of 1 min -- i.e. 1 X 3 = 3 ---> 20 X 3 = 60 EMA).

Chart 1 shows the first DS that resulted in Trend Retracement (TRT). One can see the price bouncing off the 60 EMA. Some times this bounce happens at 20 EMA and this results in a shallow retracement.

Chart 2 shows the Triple Divergence signal that resulted in the Trend Reversal (TRV). The price falls much further in this instance.

Chart 3 shows the bullish divergence signal that David took. Behaviour of price at both EMAs are highlighted in yellow.

Even though no one can predict what will be the end result of a particular DS, historical patterns of price behaviour, particularly at EMAs, can often help a trader to take profits in stages when trading DS in short time frames. There are, of course, other tools and methods one could use to design exit / profit taking strategies.

Rama.

[jands]

Thanks Rama,

Nice post:)

It helped clarify an additional methodolgy that I am trying to put together for myself besides MTP.

Jim

[rrs]

Thanks Rama,

Nice post:)

It helped clarify an additional methodolgy that I am trying to put together for myself besides MTP.

Jim

Hi Jim,

You are welcome. I am glad you find it useful.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 3-minute. Had a DP [Valid] sell on the opening bar and then it disappeared from the chart on the very next bar. Does this happen often and does anybody know why it disappeared. I guess this has to be a tricky trade because of the large opening gap we has this morning and how that will heavily influence MTPSTF. So far, this would have been a nice trade.

[edfash]

that does happen from time to time. it may be helpful to put a manual DP zone when making new highs, and then you are not as dependant upon automatic signals. i did not have an auto DP on NT platform, but i did have an auto DP in the ES both on an 800T and 1600T chart.

[scJohn]

edfash. Do you mostly trade tick chart(s) as opposed to minute charts for the index futures?

Thanks

[edfash]

i use tick charts on the es, i have followed the 800/1600/3200T charts for some time. i have been using the 3 min charts on the other stock index futures including the FTSE & DAX.

[jojab]

NQ Short 3min TS3

[jjc]

NQ Short 3min TS3

me2 - gl to us

j

[Eddo]

me2 - gl to us

j

Well thats at least three of us then :)

[davidh]

make that 4

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 3-minute. Sell C[TS3] @ 12:06 EST. I hate these lunch time trades.

[jjc]

make that 4

fwiw guys, 1817.00 is yest's Point of Contol - if we make it ther, be careful ther

j

[Eddo]

Well thats at least three of us then :)

I think we are now at Decision time for this one - the next few mins should tell :confused:

If it doesn't reverse at this DP it might be worth adding as a continuation trade

[jojab]

fwiw guys, 1817.00 is yest's Point of Contol - if we make it ther, be careful ther

j

That is also the same level as the DP from the low of the day on the 3min

[Eddo]

I think we are now at Decision time for this one - the next few mins should tell :confused:

If it doesn't reverse at this DP it might be worth adding as a continuation trade

if she breaks 1824 and I will increase my short

[Eddo]

if she breaks 1824 and I will increase my short

Iam in for more with a stop on the 'extra' at 1830

[jjc]

That is also the same level as the DP from the low of the day on the 3min

im flat at 1817 - she's all yours

good trading guys

j

[Eddo]

Iam in for more with a stop on the 'extra' at 1830

One more DP to overcome and then I reckon its 'deep blue seas' (thats my opposite to 'clear blue skies') and we really start to make the money :)

[Eddo]

One more DP to overcome and then I reckon its 'deep blue seas' (thats my opposite to 'clear blue skies') and we really start to make the money :)

Hope Iam not being too quick off the mark but I have now got my deep sea scuba gear on and am hoping for a deep dive ............

[Eddo]

Hope Iam not being too quick off the mark but I have now got my deep sea scuba gear on and am hoping for a deep dive ............

Might have spoken too soon - could be a quick reverse posn here at this DP

[Eddo]

Might have spoken too soon - could be a quick reverse posn here at this DP

I have reversed and am now long off the DP on the 3 min

[jjc]

why i bailed at 1817.00

no use for me to be greedy


j

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 3-minute. Sell C[TS3] @ 12:06 EST. I hate these lunch time trades.

Out on trailing stop for 3.9R.

Note: Did a ER2 03-08 4-minute, Sell DP, around the same time as the NQ for a 5R.

[Eddo]

why i bailed at 1817.00

no use for me to be greedy


j

Yes I think yours was prob the best call - I have just bailed on my reversed trade at b/e on that - I have an eye on the Trin and I felt very uncomfortable having gone long .......... so Iam out 2 :)

[jojab]

I'm out at 1807.25...min wave price target...+7.8R

[Eddo]

Yes I think yours was prob the best call - I have just bailed on my reversed trade at b/e on that - I have an eye on the Trin and I felt very uncomfortable having gone long .......... so Iam out 2 :)

My gut feeling looks like it was right - damm I knew I should have kept my scuba gear on - hope you others held on short -

Thats me for the week - my Indian takeaway calls :)

[scJohn]

Well that NQ sell C[TS3] turned around and headed back down. That down trend hit the 1st profit target for a excellent 7.5R.

[Eddo]

I'm out at 1807.25...min wave price target...+7.8R

Good job - nice trade - but with this Trin I reckon it could well go some more - but I say that now as a simple bystander !

[TreeShaker]

Nice trading on the NQ guys. :D No, I wasn't in it. Was looking at everything and got to it too late. :(

[Eddo]

Nice trading on the NQ guys. :D No, I wasn't in it. Was looking at everything and got to it too late. :(

Focus my friend - when the signal goes 'ping' on my speakers - I stop looking at everthing else ......... well I do most of the time - lol

Have a nice weekend all

C :)

[edfash]

a great trade that keeps on giving.

[TreeShaker]

a great trade that keeps on giving.

NQ short may have stopped giving, it may be time to be long. Took 2 min DP cloesed half position at target the other half is bouncing off the bottom of target trying to decide if it wants to give me some money. lol

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

+7.2R – what a great trade !

Steve

[scJohn]

ER2 03-08 3-minute @ 2:27 PM EST. Sell c[TS2].

[jojab]

ER2 03-08 3-minute @ 2:27 PM EST. Sell c[TS2].

I'm with you.

[jojab]

I'm with you.

Out at Breakeven

[scJohn]

ER2 03-08 3-minute @ 2:27 PM EST. Sell c[TS2].

Out at 1st profit target for 2.7R.

[scJohn]

jojab. Why BE?:confused:

[TreeShaker]

me2 - gl to us

j

J I didn't see any neg. diver on this one except on the 1 min. chart. What made you decide to take this one?

[jojab]

jojab. Why BE?:confused:

My mistake. After the surge down, I moved to BE and that was the high of the pullback. Normally I just use the default ATR trailing stops.

[scJohn]

ER2 03-08 3-minute. Buy DP. Not sure if divergence on MTPSTF is good enough.

[jjc]

[QUOTE=TreeShaker;13410]J I didn't see any neg. diver on this one except on the 1 min. chart. What made you decide to take this one?[/QUOTE

Tree - I got a bear flag here - see pic


j

[scJohn]

ER2 03-08 3-minute. Buy DP. Not sure if divergence on MTPSTF is good enough.

out on trailing stop for 0.8R.

[G Fryer]

My mistake. After the surge down, I moved to BE and that was the high of the pullback. Normally I just use the default ATR trailing stops.

I did the same thing... even though I have sworn to myself that I would stick to the ATRs. I've done it at least 20 times and missed out on BIG trades about half of the time just for the privilege of breaking even. Such behavior destroys the theory of reducing risk and promoting gains. Since we've all paid good money for software we claim to believe in, that begs the very real question of why we won't follow our self-imposed rules. I think it ultimately comes down to a need to control... which ultimately ends up in self-sabotage.

Certainly worth thinking about.

Gillian

[TAS]

I did the same thing... even though I have sworn to myself that I would stick to the ATRs. I've done it at least 20 times and missed out on BIG trades about half of the time just for the privilege of breaking even. Such behavior destroys the theory of reducing risk and promoting gains. Since we've all paid good money for software we claim to believe in, that begs the very real question of why we won't follow our self-imposed rules. I think it ultimately comes down to a need to control... which ultimately ends up in self-sabotage.

Certainly worth thinking about.

Gillian


Hi Gillian,

Meaningful remind out there. The biggest challenge is when psychology sets in... ATR plays out following consecutive winners while early BE applies after several losses... That simple that easy if we can reverse such...

Have a good weekend. everyone.:)

TAS

[TreeShaker]

[QUOTE=TreeShaker;13410]J I didn't see any neg. diver on this one except on the 1 min. chart. What made you decide to take this one?[/QUOTE

Tree - I got a bear flag here - see pic


j

Thanks J, I was trying to sell on the 1 min. and was too slow. When I looked at the higher time frames I had to hurry and must have looked at them wrong and moved on, only to regret not being on the train. Nice trade! :D

[jjc]

[QUOTE=jjc;13413]

Thanks J, I was trying to sell on the 1 min. and was too slow. When I looked at the higher time frames I had to hurry and must have looked at them wrong and moved on, only to regret not being on the train. Nice trade! :D

My son, you have just committed the Venial Sin of trading. You are trying to imitate someone else's trading style.

Stick with time frames that make sense with the least being 3min

Keep It Simple, dude

j

(i can say 'my son' cuz im so friggin old)

[tar001]

does anyone here NOT look at the charts during the trading day? meaning do you just use the market analyzer and then look at the chart after you get a signal on that? I have found that the only times I get myself in trouble are when I am staring at the charts and hitting every pivot point for a DP. Then I find myself missing trades because I am so absorbed in doing that(hahah really)
STEVE? when is the new files going to e ready with the filtered DP and TS4?
:D

[tar001]

although in this instance it worked well
:D

does anyone here NOT look at the charts during the trading day? meaning do you just use the market analyzer and then look at the chart after you get a signal on that? I have found that the only times I get myself in trouble are when I am staring at the charts and hitting every pivot point for a DP. Then I find myself missing trades because I am so absorbed in doing that(hahah really)
STEVE? when is the new files going to e ready with the filtered DP and TS4?
:D

[tar001]

in this instance I got greedy! I was shocked that it did not hit the target DP
:confused:



although in this instance it worked well
:D

[tar001]

In this instance it worked great but I dad 2 misfires first
]:D


in this instance I got greedy! I was shocked that it did not hit the target DP
:confused:

[tar001]

"dad" 2 misfires? must be some sort of Freudian slip
hahahah
:O)



In this instance it worked great but I dad 2 misfires first
]:D

[AlanD]

Tar001,

I've noticed from my observations that targets tend to be more accurate when the signal is in the direction of the intermediate trend. So with today, since the primary trend was down, the sell signals ended up working better then the long ones. I know this sounds somewhat obvious but where this may help is when trying to determine at what point one should exit a trade. I have found more success when taking long signals in a downtrend when I lock in profit at about the 3ATR level but letting the short signals go to their suggested targets. I've do this only when resistance is heavy (for the longs) in that area and with stochastic correlation. Doing this has given me a 63% win rate over the last 3 days. (That's when I started doing this).

Yes, I know Win ratio doesn't matter. Only R/R. ;)

Alan

[tar001]

What do you use to assess the trend? the STF? it was blue most of the morning? I actually thought we would fill the morning gap up and then rally(shows what I get for thinking haha)
do you watch the charts or wait for the market analyzer to do its thing?

Tar001,

I've noticed from my observations that targets tend to be more accurate when the signal is in the direction of the intermediate trend. So with today, since the primary trend was down, the sell signals ended up working better then the long ones. I know this sounds somewhat obvious but where this may help is when trying to determine at what point one should exit a trade. I have found more success when taking long signals in a downtrend when I lock in profit at about the 3ATR level but letting the short signals go to their suggested targets. I've do this only when resistance is heavy (for the longs) in that area and with stochastic correlation. Doing this has given me a 63% win rate over the last 3 days. (That's when I started doing this).

Yes, I know Win ratio doesn't matter. Only R/R. ;)

Alan

[d-day]

What do you use to assess the trend? the STF? it was blue most of the morning? I actually thought we would fill the morning gap up and then rally(shows what I get for thinking haha)
do you watch the charts or wait for the market analyzer to do its thing?

1) It is a bear market, and while there will be breathtaking short killing rallies, the market will fall of its own weight more easily.

2) The gap not only filled but we fell below yesterday's close and then merely ranged around it for an hour and a half - from that point on odds favored a trend day - open at one end of the day's range and close at the other.

3) Look at the pattern on a 15 minute chart. The SP's trended down from the open til 11AM and then went sideways. The lack of reversal between 10:15-45'ish was, in my opinion, a strong indication that we would consolidate through mid day and then make a more or less equal leg down staring sometime after 12:45. The market dropped almost on cue.

Patterns, patterns, patterns. No need to think, just open your eyes and say "Hey, I've seen this before many times. When the market makes a trending morning with no sharp reversal by 11AM EST, the trend will likely continue after some sideways action while traders go to lunch." That TS3 on the NQ was a gift that all of you should have been in. The NQ was the star today, as it gave a DP short on the open and then a low-risk opportunity to add to shorts at the TS3 and what do you know ... closed just about on its low.

And remember, it is a bear market.

[tar001]

But Jim Cramer said we are in a new bull market? hahah :D I have been TRYING to enter each day with an open mind and try to only take setups that look good as at times I get very strong willed and only look for setups in the direction I think the market should go(I know horrible trait) I think next week I am only going to use the market analyzer and take trades based on that
I OVER TRADE
1) It is a bear market, and while there will be breathtaking short killing rallies, the market will fall of its own weight more easily.

2) The gap not only filled but we fell below yesterday's close and then merely ranged around it for an hour and a half - from that point on odds favored a trend day - open at one end of the day's range and close at the other.

3) Look at the pattern on a 15 minute chart. The SP's trended down from the open til 11AM and then went sideways. The lack of reversal between 10:15-45'ish was, in my opinion, a strong indication that we would consolidate through mid day and then make a more or less equal leg down staring sometime after 12:45. The market dropped almost on cue.

Patterns, patterns, patterns. No need to think, just open your eyes and say "Hey, I've seen this before many times. When the market makes a trending morning with no sharp reversal by 11AM EST, the trend will likely continue after some sideways action while traders go to lunch." That TS3 on the NQ was a gift that all of you should have been in. The NQ was the star today, as it gave a DP short on the open and then a low-risk opportunity to add to shorts at the TS3 and what do you know ... closed just about on its low.

And remember, it is a bear market.

[tar001]

I would be curious as to whether anyone has ever tried this or trades this way? in other words have one chart up of any index and when the market analyzer gives you a trade setup go and look at it? sure seems like it would be a lot less stressful than staring at the charts all day?



But Jim Cramer said we are in a new bull market? hahah :D I have been TRYING to enter each day with an open mind and try to only take setups that look good as at times I get very strong willed and only look for setups in the direction I think the market should go(I know horrible trait) I think next week I am only going to use the market analyzer and take trades based on that
I OVER TRADE

[Eddo]

I did the same thing... even though I have sworn to myself that I would stick to the ATRs. I've done it at least 20 times and missed out on BIG trades about half of the time just for the privilege of breaking even. Such behavior destroys the theory of reducing risk and promoting gains. Since we've all paid good money for software we claim to believe in, that begs the very real question of why we won't follow our self-imposed rules. I think it ultimately comes down to a need to control... which ultimately ends up in self-sabotage.

Certainly worth thinking about.

Gillian


Gillian

The answer is The Boggyman (or in your case the Boggywoman) who sits there inside your head waiting to get you!

In my own case the Boggyman is things like CNBC, or dare I say it sometimes reading comments on this board - ie some idiot 'expert' comes onto CNBC and says he thinks we are about to go up (when of course your short) so your mind starts to look for 'signs' on your chart to change your short position - you close or revers your short and and hey ho the market plunges, you get mad with yourself and you never see that particular 'expert' on CNBC again!

Today was a perfect example of how comments on this board can also sometimes have a neg effect - eg I was short a 3 min NQ trade today, I increased my posn when the first DP failed (all looking very nice at this point) - we then get to the 2nd DP and I think because of a wonderfully Red Trin we are going deeper - at which point I read a post on the board about some signal which concided with that DP - so my mind starts thinking (always a dangerous thing) and I start to worry and I start to look for signs to close or reverse - I actually reversed with a broken blue and divergence (thankfully I closed out the Long almost instantly for no loss) leaving myself flat with an OK overall gain but helpless as the NQ then proceeded to dive to the depths of the Ocean without me for what would have been a mega gain.

Point of the story - its The Boggyman - so my advice is, listen to the MTP signals, then turn OFF CNBC, keep away from the Forum (whilst the trade is running), put on some soothing music and let the trade do what you thought it would do when you put it on -

Now doesn't that all sound sooooo simple - lol :)

Just my two penith worth after many many years of listening to my little old Boggyman :)

Chris

[d-day]

But Jim Cramer said we are in a new bull market

I don't watch Cramer, nor do I watch CNBC during the trading day. I llo at the daily chaarts of the $INDU and the $TRAN and I see a bear market, and that is what I will continue to see until the market revrses its primary bear trend. But what do I know? No one offers to pay me oodles of money to spew my opinions on cable TV.


I have been TRYING to enter each day with an open mind and try to only take setups that look good as at times I get very strong willed and only look for setups in the direction I think the market should goI OVER TRADE


I've tried for years to figure out what would work best in terms of what to expect - trade only in the direction of the hourly MACD, Slow stochastic, or based on where price was in relation to various moving averages, e.g. only take shorts if price is below the 15 minute 50 simple moving average and vice versa for longs. The problem with all of that is this - the best trades invariably are those that start when you would be ignoring them! For example, the best shorts originate when price is above the 15 minute 50 MA and slices through it on its way down. Or MACD is bearish so you would ignore long signals, and yet you miss the signal that would have caught a 5% rally!

The best thing I have found is something called the Taylor Trading technique, which is basically an acknowledgement that the market typically cycles from Buy days to sell days to sell short days, even during trends. Linda Raschke has written on using Taylor's technique. He did write a book years back that is the most tortuous reading you ever want to read - the guy was grain pit trader, not a writer. It's like reading James Joyce, only much more difficult to understand. I used to have an article by Raschke that explains the Buy Day/Sell day/Sell Short Day cycle. If I find it, I will post it here.

[edfash]

David your comments are very insightful.
Linda Rashke emphasizes that one should trade with an overall bias, and much of this is based upon the Taylor 2-3 day rythym which are based on buy days, sell days, and short sale days. the order the high and low are made are integral to this bias. "The Taylor Trading Technique" i believe is still available from the Traders Press. it is very boring and much of it can be skipped as it is mostly relevant to trading in the grain markets years ago (maybe still relevant ?). The book includes articles written about the 3 day cycle written by Linda Rashke and George Angell. Linda also wrote a book called "Street Smarts" which has Taylor related material as well as alot of other terrific perceptive stuff. She has an amazing sense of the market.
The bigger picture of yesterdays market was after a reversal day, we had 2 days of trading from low to high, including a range expansion outside up day. The odds favored a sell short day, especially if the prior days highs were exceeded early (especially as David points out we are in a bear market where weekly charts have made new momentum lows last week).
Obviously this does not mean that long MTP signals should be avoided, but the better we can understand overall price action, the better we will trade. Any tool that helps us anticipate range expansion days which have a strong trend (Open X-Close X) are so helpful to any day trader.

[tar001]

I don't watch Cramer or CNBC during the trading day, heck it takes me a half hour to refocus after a little birdie flies by my window hahah
:D
I agree that most indicators are late and thats why I like MTP it is based on price bar patterns. I just need to learn to stick with the trade.
I was watching the NQ TS setup(short) but was already in the Russell short that I posted. I would have probably covered at the auto DP that fired even though looking at it now(in hindsight) it wasn't really a valid DP because it was not at a new low and there was no divergence(I panic trade still)
so you say bear market? what would change that? a successful retest of this weeks low?


I don't watch Cramer, nor do I watch CNBC during the trading day. I llo at the daily chaarts of the $INDU and the $TRAN and I see a bear market, and that is what I will continue to see until the market revrses its primary bear trend. But what do I know? No one offers to pay me oodles of money to spew my opinions on cable TV.





I've tried for years to figure out what would work best in terms of what to expect - trade only in the direction of the hourly MACD, Slow stochastic, or based on where price was in relation to various moving averages, e.g. only take shorts if price is below the 15 minute 50 simple moving average and vice versa for longs. The problem with all of that is this - the best trades invariably are those that start when you would be ignoring them! For example, the best shorts originate when price is above the 15 minute 50 MA and slices through it on its way down. Or MACD is bearish so you would ignore long signals, and yet you miss the signal that would have caught a 5% rally!

The best thing I have found is something called the Taylor Trading technique, which is basically an acknowledgement that the market typically cycles from Buy days to sell days to sell short days, even during trends. Linda Raschke has written on using Taylor's technique. He did write a book years back that is the most tortuous reading you ever want to read - the guy was grain pit trader, not a writer. It's like reading James Joyce, only much more difficult to understand. I used to have an article by Raschke that explains the Buy Day/Sell day/Sell Short Day cycle. If I find it, I will post it here.

[d-day]

Here is a link that will take you to a web page where a ton of Linda Raschke's articles are available for download. I do not remember which one of these articles is about her use of the Taylor Trading Technique (it may not be among these). But I have read and re-read and continue to re-read these articles. As Ed said, she has a tremendous sense of the market. She is also one of the smartest and best writers about trading matters I've had the pleasure to read. And she is one of the few "gurus" among the writers, trainers, systems sellers, and other vendors who really does trader her own account.

https://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?page=MagazineArchive


Enjoy.

[d-day]

The Taylor Trading technique article by Raschke is entitled "Swing Trading: Rules and Philosophy." It is in the members section of her website, and I had to log in to access it, so I would not want to post the article here. However, it does look as though her website gives you the option of signing in as a guest in order to gain access to some very interesting and valuable articles.

[d-day]

Obviously this does not mean that long MTP signals should be avoided, but the better we can understand overall price action, the better we will trade. Any tool that helps us anticipate range expansion days which have a strong trend (Open X-Close X) are so helpful to any day trader.


Right, I still traded both long and short yesterday. What I do try to do is anticipate 1) is a trend day likely and 2) if so, which is the most probable direction. It is much easier to anticipate 1) than it is 2), but the Taylor Trading Technique (TTT) helps. Yesterday I was expecting a "sell short" day, where we would make a high and trade down from there. I watch the 3 minute 24 hour charts heading into the open. The NQ obliged with a auto DP sell with waning momentum despite the sharp move up immediately prior to the open (on the screenshot, as a nod to Ed, I show MACD using Linda Raschke's settings) . Easy decision - short the NQ, move the stop to break even at the TS3 short, and cover on the close. The rest of the day I traded the YM and ES and took both long and short swings at each. When trying to capture a trend day, my stop is a time stop - the close. I keep a stop two-three points above the high of the day (points, not ticks) until about 12:30 PM, when I usually feel safe that we are not going to reverse back to the opening range. In this case, the TS3 green lighted a breakeven stop on the inital position when I was filled on the TS3.

[tar001]

damn!! thats nice and simple:D how about we start a thread on here and call it trend? in the morning someone post the trend of the day and we can all focus on trades in that direction? I nominate YOU for that task
:D




Right, I still traded both long and short yesterday. What I do try to do is anticipate 1) is a trend day likely and 2) if so, which is the most probable direction. It is much easier to anticipate 1) than it is 2), but the Taylor Trading Technique (TTT) helps. Yesterday I was expecting a "sell short" day, where we would make a high and trade down from there. I watch the 3 minute 24 hour charts heading into the open. The NQ obliged with a auto DP sell with waning momentum despite the sharp move up immediately prior to the open (on the screenshot, as a nod to Ed, I show MACD using Linda Raschke's settings) . Easy decision - short the NQ, move the stop to break even at the TS3 short, and cover on the close. The rest of the day I traded the YM and ES and took both long and short swings at each. When trying to capture a trend day, my stop is a time stop - the close. I keep a stop two-three points above the high of the day (points, not ticks) until about 12:30 PM, when I usually feel safe that we are not going to reverse back to the opening range. In this case, the TS3 green lighted a breakeven stop on the inital position when I was filled on the TS3.

[edfash]

That is beautiful trading David. Understanding and analyzing are one thing, perfect execution of a plan achieves a level quantum leaps higher. Congratulations!!!
Everyone enjoy the rest of their weekend.

[tar001]

here is a daily chart of the ES, would you say that as long as we are under the 50dma and the DP that we should concentrate on shorts? since there are no other DP's where could possible support come into play?:confused:
anyone anyone?
:D

[Larry22]

here is a daily chart of the ES, would you say that as long as we are under the 50dma and the DP that we should concentrate on shorts? since there are no other DP's where could possible support come into play?:confused:
anyone anyone?
:D

tar, you can't just take DP and oscillator when you analyze a market, you also have to take in considerations the wave patterns and either projections and retracements into account.

If you remember when I posted my daily wave count of the ER2 I had an objective to attained, who has been reached by the way, once this level is reached then you have to go on the hourly charts and see what is developping. For friday it was an easy trade plan for me as the ER2 had reached again a DP from previous waves high so short was the way to go especially when the 10 min charts made a nice 5 wave down before going up in an abc structure about the same time when the NQ fired up his TS3 sell . You don't need to be an elliott wave guru to see that.

See the chart below of the ER2 hourly.

[Larry22]

I forgot to post a pic of the 10 min charts of the ER2 and also to mention like I have allways said you need to know where the market is heading and for that you need to look at the daily, hourly then I look at my 10 minutes and finally the 3 min and if needed to have the best entry point the 1 minute but again I wouldn't advise anyone to go on the 1 minute because you can loose very quickly where the market is really heading as you will get a lot of countertrend signals.

I hope this can help you and like David Day mentioned earlier the market has a bearish pattern but I will look at how the hourly chart unfolds, as I am looking for a potential abc correction daily so it means that the a wave is done and we could be in a b wave, again only the waves structures in the next 2 or 3 days will give me a clue.

[tar001]

You don't have to be an Elliot Wave guru to see that? so all those years I spent at Elliot Wave guru school have been a waste? hahah!! I was mainly asking what metrics we were using to call this a BEAR market. Using your projections how much downside does the ER have? are you still short or do you cover at EOD?


tar, you can't just take DP and oscillator when you analyze a market, you also have to take in considerations the wave patterns and either projections and retracements into account.

If you remember when I posted my daily wave count of the ER2 I had an objective to attained, who has been reached by the way, once this level is reached then you have to go on the hourly charts and see what is developping. For friday it was an easy trade plan for me as the ER2 had reached again a DP from previous waves high so short was the way to go especially when the 10 min charts made a nice 5 wave down before going up in an abc structure about the same time when the NQ fired up his TS3 sell . You don't need to be an elliott wave guru to see that.

See the chart below of the ER2 hourly.

[Larry22]

I allways cover as I don't like having open positions overnight, again this can change.

You can refer to this post as my daily wave count.

http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?p=13319#post13319

I think that we may have reached the end of the third wave then again we could have more extensions on our way down nothing is
final.

The name of the game is to buy or sell at cetain levels where the market could reverse with a risk controlled trade, nothing is guaranteed but if you have target prices, divergence and wave counts then you have more chances on your side of having a winning trade if it doesn't work out then you wait for a next one that's why you allways need stop loss.

We had a proof recently that when you are against the market and hold your positions even if you have a lot of cash you can loose billions, like the guy in france who has made a lost of more then 7 billions for a french bank.

[tar001]

we are at a DP on a 15 minute chart so it will be interesting to see if that holds


I allways cover as I don't like having open positions overnight, again this can change.

You can refer to this post as my daily wave count.

http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?p=13319#post13319

I think that we may have reached the end of the third wave then again we could have more extensions on our way down nothing is
final.

The name of the game is to buy or sell at cetain levels where the market could reverse with a risk controlled trade, nothing is guaranteed but if you have target prices, divergence and wave counts then you have more chances on your side of having a winning trade if it doesn't work out then you wait for a next one that's why you allways need stop loss.

We had a proof recently that when you are against the market and hold your positions even if you have a lot of cash you can loose billions, like the guy in france who has made a lost of more then 7 billions for a french bank.

[Larry22]

I also forgot to mention you don't need to make 5 trades a day 1 can be enough if you are in the right directions.

That will allways be better then overtrade, when I make a trade and it turns out more then 5 or 6 R I usually stop trading for the day no need to stay in front of my PC as you have opportunities allmost everyday of the week. :D

[Larry22]

we are at a DP on a 15 minute chart so it will be interesting to see if that holds

I know we have an abc structure for the moment on the 10 15 and 60 min charts, still we haven't even reached the 38% retracement of the entire up move so we might see another 3 wave structures down, again monday's wave structure should give us some clues.

[tar001]

Thanks Larry I appreciate your input. I would love to trade 1 time per day. Hopefully in time as every day is still a learning experience for me
have a great weekend


I know we have an abc structure for the moment on the 10 15 and 60 min charts, still we haven't even reached the 38% retracement of the entire up move so we might see another 3 wave structures down, again monday's wave structure should give us some clues.

[tar001]

If it was open I might be tempted to take this hahah would this be a double bottom? divergence? at a DP? would anyone else consider this trade? if not why?(just trying to learn here)
:confused:

[mydet]

Wave abc end ?

[d-day]

A possible scenario I'm lookng at - but this is not a forecast.

[mydet]

Modified version of Elliott, please test

[rrs]

..... I was mainly asking what metrics we were using to call this a BEAR market.

Hi Tom,

The conventional definition of a BEAR market is 20% decline in the market index from its recent peak. If you use this metric, you will see that most of the indices are either in bear market territory or fast approaching it.

The other important measurement that has been studied extensively is the realtionship between the market index (example DJIA or S&P 500) and its 30 week moving average when plotted on a weekly chart. Stan Weinstein's book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" has several charts in Chapter 8 that illustrate this very important and enduring measurement and its behaviour in previous bull and bear markets. This chapter has rather extensive discussion on measurements that help the trader / investor objectively identify with very high degree of accuracy the start and the end of bull and bear markets. The other person who has researched this subject extensively and published his findings is Paul Desmond from Lowry's Reports. He won the Charles H. Dow Award for excellence in the field of technical analysis in 2002. He was interviewed by Barry Ritholtz of thestreet.com in 2006. Here are the links to the 2 part interview:

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10269345.html

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10269355.html

In my view, Mr. Desmond's publications on this subject are modestly priced and certainly worth paying for because they give you a very objective and quantitative measures of market's tops and bottoms. They are available for purchase at:

http://www.lowryresearch.com/research_studies.cfm

Needless to say that I have no financial relationship with either of these two individuals or their companies.

If you incorporate the quantitative findings of Stan Weinstein and Paul Desmond in your system of assessment of the market condition, you will have no FUD (Fear, Doubt, and Uncertainty) in your mind. You will be able to think for yourself, confidently draw your own conclusions and plan your trading strategies accordingly. In my view, the combination of MTP and these market assessment indicators has the potential to enhance a trader's performance significantly.

The weekly chart attached to this message shows that:

a) the market index the professional use -- S&P 500 -- is below its 30 week MA

b) it also shows the DP levels projected from different price pivots that may be useful to you in anticipating potential trades in your trading time frame.

Good Luck!

Rama.

[d-day]

I was mainly asking what metrics we were using to call this a BEAR market.

Dow Theory

[tar001]

Thanks much for your in depth explanation, are you currently short the indexes? did you take that short on the weekly chart? do you think we MIGHT bounce at this DP? I am guessing that you do not think it will hold?
:D


Hi Tom,

The conventional definition of a BEAR market is 20% decline in the market index from its recent peak. If you use this metric, you will see that most of the indices are either in bear market territory or fast approaching it.

The other important measurement that has been studied extensively is the realtionship between the market index (example DJIA or S&P 500) and its 30 week moving average when plotted on a weekly chart. Stan Weinstein's book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" has several charts in Chapter 8 that illustrate this very important and enduring measurement and its behaviour in previous bull and bear markets. This chapter has rather extensive discussion on measurements that help the trader / investor objectively identify with very high degree of accuracy the start and the end of bull and bear markets. The other person who has researched this subject extensively and published his findings is Paul Desmond from Lowry's Reports. He won the Charles H. Dow Award for excellence in the field of technical analysis in 2002. He was interviewed by Barry Ritholtz of thestreet.com in 2006. Here are the links to the 2 part interview:

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10269345.html

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10269355.html

In my view, Mr. Desmond's publications on this subject are modestly priced and certainly worth paying for because they give you a very objective and quantitative measures of market's tops and bottoms. They are available for purchase at:

http://www.lowryresearch.com/research_studies.cfm

Needless to say that I have no financial relationship with either of these two individuals or their companies.

If you incorporate the quantitative findings of Stan Weinstein and Paul Desmond in your system of assessment of the market condition, you will have no FUD (Fear, Doubt, and Uncertainty) in your mind. You will be able to think for yourself, confidently draw your own conclusions and plan your trading strategies accordingly. In my view, the combination of MTP and these market assessment indicators has the potential to enhance a trader's performance significantly.

The weekly chart attached to this message shows that:

a) the market index the professional use -- S&P 500 -- is below its 30 week MA

b) it also shows the DP levels projected from different price pivots that may be useful to you in anticipating potential trades in your trading time frame.

Good Luck!

Rama.

[rrs]

Thanks much for your in depth explanation, are you currently short the indexes? did you take that short on the weekly chart? do you think we MIGHT bounce at this DP? I am guessing that you do not think it will hold?
:D

Hi Tom,

Due to ill health, I missed that trade. I am waiting for the re-testing of the old high -- if this happens I will certainly go short based on:

1) MTP analysis of the 60 min and daily chart

2) Volume analysis

I approach the question of bounce at the DP with an open mind and make a decision based on what the momentum indicator tells me over the course of next few sessions. Invariably, I let the price and volume based measurements dictate my next action.

Rama.

[tar001]

ill health? sorry to hear that! I hope things are better! re-testing of the old high? thats a long way up from here? that would also take us out of bear market territory?:confused:


Hi Tom,

Due to ill health, I missed that trade. I am waiting for the re-testing of the old high -- if this happens I will certainly go short based on:

1) MTP analysis of the 60 min and daily chart

2) Volume analysis

I approach the question of bounce at the DP with an open mind and make a decision based on what the momentum indicator tells me over the course of next few sessions. Invariably, I let the price and volume based measurements dictate my next action.

Rama.

[jjc]

A possible scenario I'm lookng at - but this is not a forecast.

I'm long from here until it stops me out


j

[rrs]

ill health? sorry to hear that! I hope things are better! re-testing of the old high? thats a long way up from here? that would also take us out of bear market territory?:confused:

Hi J,

Thanks for your kind message.

What I meant by "old high" was the zone / area close to one of the peaks seen on the chart before the current slide started. When there is a violent bounce up / retracement, usually this is the zone / area that is tested. I am at work now and when I get back home I will post a chart with the zone /area highlighted. As I said, this retracement may not happen. I will have to wait and see. Most of the historical charts of previous bear markets usually show this pattern before finally establishing a strong bear trend.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 9:42. Long DP.

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 9:42. Long DP.

out on trailing stop for a very small loss

[davidh]

I took the nice looking NQ 15min TS4 short around the open (24 hour chart).
Not overly optimistic but will stay with it.
David

[scJohn]

Looks like DP's are trying to catch a 'falling knife'. I wonder is this will be fixed with the new DP logic. I am assuming this this is something that needs to be fixed.

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 10:12. Long DP.

[mydet]

New DP 2 target ?

[davidh]

I took the nice looking NQ 15min TS4 short around the open (24 hour chart).
Not overly optimistic but will stay with it.
David

Stopped on that one.

[jojab]

Stopped out of the TS3 short on the 3 min NQ (enter off 10:33 bar).

[Eddo]

Anyone else in with me on the AB Long from the DP right at the open?

We are about at our first tgt - which is we break through should look very good for a further run up

[jjc]

I'm long from here until it stops me out


j

Still long per previous post

Question of the day - why consider a short when $TICK have been positive since the open?


j

[Eddo]

Still long per previous post

Question of the day - why consider a short when $TICK have been positive since the open?


j

............ and the TRin is falling into the blue like a stone :)

[Eddo]

Anyone else in with me on the AB Long from the DP right at the open?

We are about at our first tgt - which is we break through should look very good for a further run up

Its now thinking very hard at the current 5 min DP - hopefully we will be able to add to our longs on a continuation trade

[jjc]

Its now thinking very hard at the current 5 min DP - hopefully we will be able to add to our longs on a continuation trade

Dang, I like the way you think :)

So, now we look for a 'pull back' not a 'trend change' - longer time frame is the clue

j

[Eddo]

Its now thinking very hard at the current 5 min DP - hopefully we will be able to add to our longs on a continuation trade

.... there she goes I think - in for more with next tgt at around 705 for a +6R gain if we make it

[jjc]

My next target on the ES is at/near 1346 - trailing ATR now


j

[Eddo]

.... there she goes I think - in for more with next tgt at around 705 for a +6R gain if we make it

Covered the 'extra' but letting the initial run with the ATR - this is turning into a bit of a fight at this DP

[scJohn]

Looks like DP's are trying to catch a 'falling knife'. I wonder is this will be fixed with the new DP logic. I am assuming this this is something that needs to be fixed.

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 10:12. Long DP.

out on trailing stop for a 2.8R.

Other trades:
ER2 03-08 3-minute @ 10:03. Long DP. Out at profit target for 2.3R.
NQ 03-08 3-minute @ 10:36. Short c[TS2]. out at stop for -1R. Being a newbie, I still do not have a clear understanding of what to do in these situations when you get a trade in the opposite direction in one instrument while still having a trade(s) that are profitable in the other direction.

[jjc]

My next target on the ES is at/near 1346 - trailing ATR now


j

Reached target of 1346 - flat from way down under and done for the day - she's all yours :)


j

[Eddo]

Reached target of 1346 - flat from way down under and done for the day - she's all yours :)


j

Well done - still hanging on in on my Long AB and leaving the ATR to 'do its thing'

[jjc]

Well done - still hanging on in on my Long AB and leaving the ATR to 'do its thing'

Thank you and good luck to you - my next target for the ES is at/near 1353 but it might take lots of muscle to get there today

j

[d-day]

still hanging on in on my Long AB and leaving the ATR to 'do its thing'


Why not stop and reverse to short at the DP with sell divergences on the 3 minute ER2?

[Eddo]

Why not stop and reverse to short at the DP with sell divergences on the 3 minute ER2?

Hi David

Yes that was certainly an option however I disregarded that in favour of staying long mainly because we had a nice Trin in my favour which over the years has tended to keep me on the right side.

Either way with my ATR stop in a the current point I am in for a +2R gain on this one so am relaxed about leaving it to run

Chris

[d-day]

that was certainly an option however I disregarded that in favour of staying long mainly because we had a nice Trin in my favour which over the years has tended to keep me on the right side.


Makes sense - you got to stick with the one that brought you to the dance.

Goodl luck!

[Eddo]

Makes sense - you got to stick with the one that brought you to the dance.

Goodl luck!

You do indeed, and having lost faith on Friday on the wonderful NQ short on which I left half the move on the table, my mission today is to 'keep the faith' - lol - we will see :)

Chris

[d-day]

You do indeed, and having lost faith on Friday on the wonderful NQ short on which I left half the move on the table, my mission today is to 'keep the faith' - lol - we will see :)

Chris

I have this as a Buy Day, and I would expect us to close in the upper 50% of today's range. However, I'd be more confident of that had we pulled back closer to the overnight lows before striking the morning low. I've noticed that those globex extremes tend to be anchors on price until tested in regular session at times.

[Eddo]

You do indeed, and having lost faith on Friday on the wonderful NQ short on which I left half the move on the table, my mission today is to 'keep the faith' - lol - we will see :)

Chris

Well here we are at another DP with the ES pinging sell sigs at me on the 3 min DP - I'am staying long however still based on the strong Trin which is still in my favour - my stop is now at about 2.5R gain.

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 1:09 PM. Short DP.

[Eddo]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 1:09 PM. Short DP.

There is also a manual 5 min DP on the ES John, but for me with the STF and Trin both in the blue I ignor it and stay Long :)

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 1:09 PM. Short DP.

out at stop for a -1R.

[tar001]

bear market over already? how many times can the markets rally on rate cut hopes?

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 4-minute @ 1:26 PM. Short DP.

[Eddo]

ES 03-08 4-minute @ 1:26 PM. Short DP.

.......... and the Trin and the STF are still blue !

[Eddo]

There is also a manual 5 min DP on the ES John, but for me with the STF and Trin both in the blue I ignor it and stay Long :)

Just been stopped out for 2.7R - I think I took my stop to close and still think we are going higher - but 2.7R is fine but what a long time it seems to take to get it

Have a good nite all - and good luck to those of you who are shorting :)