US Markets: Real-time Trading

[jojab]

market seems kinda weak:confused:

That got there in a hurry once the initial pause was over. :D

[tar001]

that was great, I am now flat for the day
great day!!!:D



That got there in a hurry once the initial pause was over. :D

[TreeShaker]

What a nice way to finnish the off. I finally have a nice trade to post. YM 1 min DP at 1516 hrs. I got a 4.7 out of it. :D

[tar001]

bear market rally or what? looks like that DP that we were looking at this weekend held(for now) this forum was very helpful today. The TRIN talk kept me from shorting the markets runup
:D

[jjc]

Dave - your 'sell short day' will be on Fed meeting day, interesting huh?

j

[d-day]

Dave - your 'sell short day' will be on Fed meeting day, interesting huh?

j

As of right now that would be the case, so long as price action tomorrow does not shift the cycle. And yes, that is interesting.

[rrs]

ill health? sorry to hear that! I hope things are better! re-testing of the old high? thats a long way up from here? that would also take us out of bear market territory?:confused:

Hi Tom,

Here is the weekly chart of S&P 500 that explains my thinking. Currently, the index is resting at a confluence of weekly DP levels. If the index bounces up from here, it is likely to attempt two things:
a) test the broken trend line and b) retrace into and test the area around the down sloping 30 week MA. This potential area is the one I called in my previous message as "old high". This kind of retracement, testing and potential whipsaws in this area have been noted in the early stages of previous bear markets -- again, Weinstein's book has plenty of charts illustrating this pattern.

I hope this helps.

Rama.

[tar001]

Hey there
your posts are always very informative, thanks for the reply. You say IF the index bounces up from here? what if it goes down from here? then what we be looking at?
:D



Hi Tom,

Here is the weekly chart of S&P 500 that explains my thinking. Currently, the index is resting at a confluence of weekly DP levels. If the index bounces up from here, it is likely to attempt two things:
a) test the broken trend line and b) retrace into and test the area around the down sloping 30 week MA. This potential area is the one I called in my previous message as "old high". This kind of retracement, testing and potential whipsaws in this area have been noted in the early stages of previous bear markets -- again, Weinstein's book has plenty of charts illustrating this pattern.

I hope this helps.

Rama.

[rrs]

Hey there
your posts are always very informative, thanks for the reply. You say IF the index bounces up from here? what if it goes down from here? then what we be looking at?
:D

Hi Tom,

The reason why I put a big IF is because in the current "jittery" environment I don't simply assume that there will be a bounce from current DP.

Having sounded a note of caution, let me list the points that favour a bounce from the current DP:

1) the index is currently resting at a confluence of DP levels. If you look at the current price action and the volume that goes with the price action you will immediately realise that the probability of a bounce at this level are reasonably high.

2) It will take a lot of selling to slice through this confluence of DPs.

I will have to wait and see what happens.

If it goes down from here, the index will be heading towards the next DP level illustrated in the chart. You may also want to analyse the daily charts for potential areas of support.

Rama.

[tar001]

Hey
Yeah I saw the DP's and the lower DP's if these don't hold but like you I agree they will(for now) but I was asking about general market terms if these don't hold, meaning you said typical bear market would go up and test the trend line etc. IF these DP's fail then what would that signify? either way it doesn't sound like the US market is in very good shape for buy and holders



Hi Tom,

The reason why I put a big IF is because in the current "jittery" environment I don't simply assume that there will be a bounce from current DP.

Having sounded a note of caution, let me list the points that favour a bounce from the current DP:

1) the index is currently resting at a confluence of DP levels. If you look at the current price action and the volume that goes with the price action you will immediately realise that the probability of a bounce at this level are reasonably high.

2) It will take a lot of selling to slice through this confluence of DPs.

I will have to wait and see what happens.

If it goes down from here, the index will be heading towards the next DP level illustrated in the chart. You may also want to analyse the daily charts for potential areas of support.

Rama.

[jay21]

Johan, take a look at the discussion about the Taylor Trading Technique last friday and saturday.

Hi Dave,

I have studied the subject of the Taylor Trading Technique a tad, reading up on the links and such on this excellent forum. And I also find it very interesting.

I just wanted to attempt to summarize what I have learnt to see if I understood correctly;

So basically there are the three days - buy day, sell day and sell short day that should happen in this order. There can however be instances where there can be up to 3 sell days in a row, preceding the sell short day, so that the cycle can be a max of 5 days although this is rare.

Looking at how the days are defined;

Buy day - opening gap down, up trending day, closing strong.
Sell day - opening close to previous high, trading range day around previous day high.
Sell short day - opening gap up, down trending day, closing weak.

Is this more or less correct - are there other defining carachteristics to recognize the days?

Thanks,
Johan

[jay21]

My experience has been that when DP's fire one after the other, all to no avail, the market is sending me a strong message to go the other way. I will taken them as scalps and exit with a quick two points, however - which I did - Short at 1350.25 and out at 1348.25.

And I just heard another DP short signal.

Hey Dave,

I actually tend to look at multiple relevant DPs that trigger and fail as a sign that something is building up and that the move in the direction of the triggers will come sooner rather than later and that the move will be quite fast and long.

Like yesterday for instance, an hour or so before the close we had that move down that I often see happening after multiple failed DPs triggered. Maybe it wasn't as fast and long as I would expect but quite tradeable.

However I of course agree that the day yesterday as a whole was obviously a "Buy day" as you so rightly point out.

[rrs]

Hi Tom,

Question: IF these DP's fail then what would that signify?

Answer: It will signify further intensification of bear market conditions.

Your conclusion about the general health of the US market is correct.

Rama.

[d-day]

I just wanted to attempt to summarize what I have learnt to see if I understood correctly;

So basically there are the three days - buy day, sell day and sell short day that should happen in this order. There can however be instances where there can be up to 3 sell days in a row, preceding the sell short day, so that the cycle can be a max of 5 days although this is rare.

Looking at how the days are defined;

Buy day - opening gap down, up trending day, closing strong.
Sell day - opening close to previous high, trading range day around previous day high.
Sell short day - opening gap up, down trending day, closing weak.

Is this more or less correct - are there other defining carachteristics to recognize the days?

Thanks,
Johan

I would suggest that gap openings are neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to conclude that one of these days is in fact unfolding. Gaps do often accompany them, however (in fact, as an MTP user you should by now have figured out that the opening DP fade play often signals the right time to "fade the gap"). Remember, however, that a gap is in itself a form of impulse, and that while some gaps can profitiably be faded, other gaps remain unfilled for months and even years.

Again, the TTT is not a trading system, it is a method by which a trader may anticipate the day to day ebband flow of the market based upon probabilities. It is not a mechanical system. For example, today is a sell day, whereby one should expect the market to trade, at some point, at, near, or preferably above yesterday's high, where professionals who bought yesterday's low and held overnight for a follow through will take profits. Today being a sell day does not mean the market will sell-off (though it may, and the TTT does not require it to do so). Linda Raschke calls sell days "zig zag" days, where the market is likely to cycle between highs and lows, rather than to exhibit any clear, unidirectional trend.

For the record, a little bird told me to expect the SPX to go out today around 1366. But who knows? Good luck today!

d-day

[d-day]

BTW - shorty at 1365

[jjc]

BTW - shorty at 1365

im trying that dp on the nq 3min and so far so good - gl 2 u


j

[scJohn]

im trying that dp on the nq 3min and so far so good - gl 2 u


j

I'm assuming that's a manual DP.

There is also a manual DP on the ER2 3-minute but I am not experienced enough to determine those in real time. In hind sight both would be good trade. I just can not correctly evaluate those in real time, yet.

[jay21]

I would suggest that gap openings are neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to conclude that one of these days is in fact unfolding. Gaps do often accompany them, however (in fact, as an MTP user you should by now have figured out that the opening DP fade play often signals the right time to "fade the gap"). Remember, however, that a gap is in itself a form of impulse, and that while some gaps can profitiably be faded, other gaps remain unfilled for months and even years.

Again, the TTT is not a trading system, it is a method by which a trader may anticipate the day to day ebband flow of the market based upon probabilities. It is not a mechanical system. For example, today is a sell day, whereby one should expect the market to trade, at some point, at, near, or preferably above yesterday's high, where professionals who bought yesterday's low and held overnight for a follow through will take profits. Today being a sell day does not mean the market will sell-off (though it may, and the TTT does not require it to do so). Linda Raschke calls sell days "zig zag" days, where the market is likely to cycle between highs and lows, rather than to exhibit any clear, unidirectional trend.

For the record, a little bird told me to expect the SPX to go out today around 1366. But who knows? Good luck today!

d-day

Great man - thanks!

I agree with what you say, basically use it as a tool in conjunction with all the other tools - as such I think it can be useful. But I suppose one should not trade on it by itself.

Good luck to you as well!!

[d-day]

And there is a nice little potential buy pattern on GENZ - if you look at the 15 minute chart you'll see a potenital saucer bottom forming over the last few sessions, and we had a nice spike up this morning at the open, this price and volume on the pullback look to be setting up a little bull flag. I know its not MTP, but it will be interesting to watch GENZ from here and see what she does.

[d-day]

And there is a nice little potential buy pattern on GENZ - if you look at the 15 minute chart you'll see a potenital saucer bottom forming over the last few sessions, and we had a nice spike up this morning at the open, this price and volume on the pullback look to be setting up a little bull flag. I know its not MTP, but it will be interesting to watch GENZ from here and see what she does.

GENZ is up over a buck from the time this was posted - nice little chart pattern that is.

[jjc]

3min and 5min charts of the es are now starting to create a W pattern - we cud go to the dp of 1366/1369

j

[Russell Stagg]

Hi Guys,

After my comments in today's report that a "bounce" was likely today I was on the look out for any low risk long trades, and I liked the look of this 3min DP on the AB (Er2).

Past the first DP target and on the way to the second :)

Steve

Hi Steve

I don't get your chart.. I get a failed DP signal on my Tradestation Chart - I seem to have some bars before yours - are you still on 930 - 1615 custom session?

[buylosellhi]

good looking TS3 sell setup in AB...

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 11:12 AB short DP.

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 11:12 AB short DP.

out at stop for -1R.

[d-day]

3min and 5min charts of the es are now starting to create a W pattern - we cud go to the dp of 1366/1369

j

That's where I'm looking to try to sell it j - we'll see if we can get there.

[d-day]

ES 03-08 3-minute @ 11:12 AB short DP.

According to MTP rules, those 3 minute DP's were not valid, as they were not off the high of the day, but were off potential "B" pivots, I believe.

[d-day]

GENZ is up over a buck from the time this was posted - nice little chart pattern that is.

And for anyone paying attnetion to GENZ, we got another chance to add on the 10:45 bar on another miniflag on the 15 minute chart - she might just go ahead and add another buck if the market holds up.

[jay21]

According to MTP rules, those 3 minute DP's were not valid, as they were not off the high of the day, but were off potential "B" pivots, I believe.

Hey Dave, that is interesting - that is something I must have missed...:confused: Are you saying only certain DP-levels are "relevant" in the MTP rule book. Could you possibly point to where in the MTP documentation you saw this being discussed?

Cheers,
Johan

[d-day]

Hey Dave, that is interesting - that is something I must have missed...:confused: Are you saying only certain DP-levels are "relevant" in the MTP rule book. Could you possibly point to where in the MTP documentation you saw this being discussed?

Cheers,
Johan

If you look, you will find Steve discussing this in this very thread sometime in the past few months.
I don't know if he has a video or pdf that spells it out (though he should ;) )

[jay21]

If you look, you will find Steve discussing this in this very thread sometime in the past few months.
I don't know if he has a video or pdf that spells it out (though he should ;) )

OK..., very surprising...:eek: I will search for it!

Thanks for bringing it up!!

[davidh]

On the subject of DP's I think the next RT version is not going to flag the DP's off the wave B peaks. Should lead to a quieter life!

[jojab]

Short the YM off the HOD DP...also short the NQ 5 min TS3. 1.5R total

[tar001]

Anyone like this?

[d-day]

And for anyone paying attnetion to GENZ, we got another chance to add on the 10:45 bar on another miniflag on the 15 minute chart - she might just go ahead and add another buck if the market holds up.

watch that GENZ 15 minute chart (for educational purposes only)- look at the (currently) two small bars forming after the high - we either get a reversal here or she runs up again. I'm betting she runs up - but she is now set up to make a decision one way pr the other.

[d-day]

Hi Steve

I don't get your chart.. I get a failed DP signal on my Tradestation Chart - I seem to have some bars before yours - are you still on 930 - 1615 custom session?

You would have been stopped out on that DP per MTP rules on esig also - the only way you would have stayed in it is with a looser stop than MTP guidelines or if you rentered because it looked so darn tasty:D

[d-day]

watch that GENZ 15 minute chart (for educational purposes only)- look at the (currently) two small bars forming after the high - we either get a reversal here or she runs up again. I'm betting she runs up - but she is now set up to make a decision one way pr the other.


Well, I thought she had more gas in the tank, but she decided she wanted to rest a spell so I walked away from her. Not a bad little ride though.

[tar001]

hit the first DP



Anyone like this?

[tar001]

oops forgot the chart



hit the first DP

[jay21]

According to MTP rules, those 3 minute DP's were not valid, as they were not off the high of the day, but were off potential "B" pivots, I believe.

Dave,

I didn't really find the stuff from Steve yet, I suppose I have to go several months back and I don't have time right now... Will search more later...

But I don't really get it - the way I see it the DP in this case was off the A leg of an ABC, and the DP corresponded with the end of the C leg of the ABC. So in my book that would have been a very strong signal - ABC with divergence DP, all coming together into one strong sell signal.

Where do I go wrong with this reasoning:confused: ?

[G Fryer]

Dave,

I didn't really find the stuff from Steve yet, I suppose I have to go several months back and I don't have time right now... Will search more later...



Steve gave Dave a very specific answer to determining good and bad DPs but I can't find the post. Steve said the next version of RT will have better DP and TS4 signals -- that was on a post on 1/9. I think the original conversation was earlier, but I haven't been able to find it either.

Maybe the new version will come out really soon and then the point will be moot.

Gillian

[tar001]

DP's are funny animals hahah this one worked, for them to be successful there has to be VERY obvious divergence(IMO)


Dave,

I didn't really find the stuff from Steve yet, I suppose I have to go several months back and I don't have time right now... Will search more later...

But I don't really get it - the way I see it the DP in this case was off the A leg of an ABC, and the DP corresponded with the end of the C leg of the ABC. So in my book that would have been a very strong signal - ABC with divergence DP, all coming together into one strong sell signal.

Where do I go wrong with this reasoning:confused: ?

[d-day]

But I don't really get it - the way I see it the DP in this case was off the A leg of an ABC, and the DP corresponded with the end of the C leg of the ABC. So in my book that would have been a very strong signal - ABC with divergence DP, all coming together into one strong sell signal.

Where do I go wrong with this reasoning:confused: ?


You may be right - this is why Steve ought to put together a pdf file with annotated screenshots in the members section of the MTPredictor website.

[jay21]

You may be right - this is why Steve ought to put together a pdf file with annotated screenshots in the members section of the MTPredictor website.

Well, let's see what Steve comes back with, but until then I am gonna stick to my gun on this one I think. Seems we are all a bit on the question side on this issue...

At least in this case the short DP (corresponding to ABCs in several contracts) would have worked out nicely (after a couple of tries...;).

[d-day]

At least in this case the short DP (corresponding to ABCs in several contracts) would have worked out nicely (after a couple of tries...;).

Per MTP rules, I believe the 3 minute ES and YM shorts would have been losses, right?

[d-day]

if the market gets there, I do believe I see a potential DP long setting upon the ES 3 minute chart

[jay21]

Per MTP rules, I believe the 3 minute ES and YM shorts would have been losses, right?

There would have been a couple of losses yes, and then a bigger winner the way I see it.

[jay21]

if the market gets there, I do believe I see a potential DP long setting upon the ES 3 minute chart

Agree, just doesn't seem to get there...:(

[d-day]

There would have been a couple of losses yes, and then a bigger winner the way I see it.

I don't have any auto DP winners on my 3 minute charts. Where is it?

[d-day]

TS3 sell on the NQ 3 minute - sell stop at 1806.75 with an 1809.50 initial stop loss

[jjc]

3min nq ts3 looks like a good bearish gartley pattern - im trying my luck

j

[scJohn]

After a poor morning session with multiple -1R loses on DPs, the lunch session was a bit better.

ES 03-08 4 minute short DP profit target 2.1R.
NQ 03-08 5-minute Short C[TS3] out trailing stop 0.6R.
YM 03-08 3-minute Short DP out trailing stop 1.1R.

[jojab]

3min nq ts3 looks like a good bearish gartley pattern - im trying my luck

j
I'm still short on the NQ 5 min from 11:30 EST.

...maybe I'll adjust my targets if the 3 min triggers?

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 3-minute @ 1:27. Short C[TS3]. out initial stop for -1R

[jay21]

I don't have any auto DP winners on my 3 minute charts. Where is it?

No it was a manual one, you could have used the A-leg of the large ABC that topped some time around 1130 EST to create a DP-area in the ES. However there was no divergence there.

However if you use the top at approx 11.10 in ES to create a DP-area, there is also divergence there.

[jjc]

3min nq ts3 looks like a good bearish gartley pattern - im trying my luck

j

ouch, that didnt work so good :(

j

[d-day]

TS3 sell on the NQ 3 minute - sell stop at 1806.75 with an 1809.50 initial stop loss


Nothing like getting stopped into a trade na dthen having the signal sdisappear the bar after you are stopped in and then you get stopped out with 1.2 point slippage per contract to increase the R multiple of your loss.

[d-day]

ouch, that didnt work so good :(

j

One of these days I'm gonna fade all the signals and I'll trade for 1 R with a 1 r stop loss and see how I do lol.

[jay21]

One of these days I'm gonna fade all the signals and I'll trade for 1 R with a 1 r stop loss and see how I do lol.

It is sometimes really tempting isn't it...:D

[jjc]

Nothing like getting stopped into a trade na dthen having the signal sdisappear the bar after you are stopped in and then you get stopped out with 1.2 point slippage per contract to increase the R multiple of your loss.

as long as that ghost ts3 doesnt go above 1812 (fib .786) it still qualifies as a gartley

short again

j

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 5 minute @ 1:40 PM EST. Short c[TS1].

Signal disappeared on the 1st bar. Makes no since as the signal bar was red which means it was confirmed. Plus the second bar was also read. This would have been a good trade. Seems to be a lot of disappearing signals, today.

[jjc]

as long as that ghost ts3 doesnt go above 1812 (fib .786) it still qualifies as a gartley

short again

j

short from the red arrow - trailing now

j

[G Fryer]

NQ 03-08 5 minute @ 1:40 PM EST. Short c[TS1].

Signal disappeared on the 1st bar. Makes no since as the signal bar was red which means it was confirmed. Plus the second bar was also read. This would have been a good trade. Seems to be a lot of disappearing signals, today.

I got stopped out of the previous TS1 signal on that time frame. This one ghosted because the RR was < 2.

Gillian

[TreeShaker]

short from the red arrow - trailing now

j

How do you get the time to make all those measurements J?

[d-day]

there is a DP on the ES between 1354 and 1355 and there is just too much demand right above there to let price drop into that DP - when(if) it does get there watch it be a losing trade.

[jjc]

How do you get the time to make all those measurements J?

im an old man and i have nothing but 'time'

well, i have lots of time untill they turn the lights off at the nursing home :)

j


just kidding, i use the freebie efs from jan arps swing tool

[buylosellhi]

i had 3 losing trades and then a 4th winning trade with +1.5R (another -1R and a breakeven trade later on). This is on 3min AB (pic attached)

[d-day]

I have to admit I'm having a rough day on the ole MTP - been a long while since I've had such a rough day.

[jay21]

I have to admit I'm having a rough day on the ole MTP - been a long while since I've had such a rough day.

I find commonly it is a tad tough in front of FOMC rate decisions, seems the market behaves strangely...

[jjc]

short on 3min es dp 14:24cst

j

[tar001]

Is EVERYDAY in front of the FOMC rate decision? hahahah I guess the thing to keep in mind here are the long term DP's(from rrs) that show this market is at support and going higher. any shorts are going to be tough sledding for now.


I find commonly it is a tad tough in front of FOMC rate decisions, seems the market behaves strangely...

[jjc]

short on 3min es dp 14:24cst

j

nah, we aint fraid to short this pig - trailing now

j

[TreeShaker]

i had 3 losing trades and then a 4th winning trade with +1.5R (another -1R and a breakeven trade later on). This is on 3min AB (pic attached)

Check your private mail.

[TreeShaker]

im an old man and i have nothing but 'time'

well, i have lots of time untill they turn the lights off at the nursing home :)

j


just kidding, i use the freebie efs from jan arps swing tool

Could you expound on that please. I've only seen those measurements in books and thought that nobody could spend that much time on eval. a stock. And there they are on your charts.

[scJohn]

yep. bad day! lots of -1R . this picture pretty much tells the story. And the indices were up today.

[d-day]

yep. bad day! lots of -1R . this picture pretty much tells the story. And the indices were up today.


Well the day started out promising enough, but now I think I wll just forget it ever happened. I went from up big to down -5.7R.

I usually shut her down if I go down by 3R but I got po'd at that NQ TS3 short that stopped me out in one bar so I kept trying to get it back. The biggest slap in the face is that not oly did that signal ghost, but it doesn't even have the decency to show the loss on the chart. In fact, I see a good number of trades that were -1R losers show no evidence of their existence.

Oh well, tomorrow is another day.

[jjc]

Well the day started out promising enough, but now I think I wll just forget it ever happened. I went to up big to down -5.7R.

I usually shut her down if I go down by 3R but I got po'd at that NQ TS3 short that stopped me out in one bar so I kept trying to get it back. The biggest slap in the face is that not oly did that signal ghost, but it doesn't even have the decency to show the loss on the chart. In fact, I see a good number of trades that were -1R losers show no evidence of their existence.

Oh well, tomorrow is another day.

dday - that lil birdie that told you the spx wud close at/near 1366 came purdy close - 3.5 pts off
:)

j

[d-day]

dday - that lil birdie that told you the spx wud close at/near 1366 came purdy close - 3.5 pts off
:)

j

Yupsir, a little birdie gave me the SP's closing price within 'bout 3.5 points before the market even opened and I still managed to lose money lol.

Do you want me to tell you what the birdie tells me to expect for tomorrow's closing price on the SP's?

[jjc]

Yupsir, a little birdie gave me the SP's closing price within 'bout 3.5 points before the market even opened and I still managed to lose money lol.

Do you want me to tell you what the birdie tells me to expect for tomorrow's closing price on the SP's?

lay it on us


j

[d-day]

lay it on us


j

Little birdy is telling me tomorrow's SPX closing price will be 1317

[d-day]

Little birdy is telling me tomorrow's SPX closing price will be 1317



And for anyone following the TTT cycle, tomorrow is a sell short day where we expect the HOD to precede striking the LOD.

[jjc]

Little birdy is telling me tomorrow's SPX closing price will be 1317

:eek: , thats going to erase 2 days gains



j

[d-day]

Little birdy is telling me tomorrow's SPX closing price will be 1317

Little birdy called me and said that recalculations based on overnight data have caused a revision to an expercted close at 1348 - so not nearly so dire as it looked last night. The daily range is expected to be 1340-1357.


We shall see.

[scJohn]

With the FOMC report at 2:15, should we just turn off our computers and come back tomorrow. After the the 1st hour of trading, volume will start to dry up waiting for the report. At that point you will see wild volatility which in all probability totally confuse MPT for the rest of the day.

[jjc]

Little birdy called me and said that recalculations based on overnight data have caused a revision to an expercted close at 1348 - so not nearly so dire as it looked last night. The daily range is expected to be 1340-1357.


We shall see.

Thx dday

i got short premarket per 15min dp with stf divg

i hope that lil birdie is a goose and lays a golden egg :)

j

[davidh]

With the FOMC report at 2:15, should we just turn off our computers and come back tomorrow. After the the 1st hour of trading, volume will start to dry up waiting for the report. At that point you will see wild volatility which in all probability totally confuse MPT for the rest of the day.

Well, maybe, but on some previous occasions there have been good MTP setups earlier in the day which, if stops were not tightened too much before the announcement, have led to some spectacular gains. MTP seems to have had a poor couple of days but it'll probably redeem itself soon.
Good luck,
David

[jjc]

Thx dday

i got short premarket per 15min dp with stf divg

j

DDay - i scaled out of a whole bunch - trailers now - win win trade

awesome call with that golden goose dude !!!

j

[scJohn]

ES 03-08 5-minute @ 9:40. Buy DP. Another one of those disappearing trades. The very next bar was a blue bar which should confirm the DP signal. Bu the DP signal disappeared from the chart. Prices did not trade lower than than the signal bar which would invalidate the signal. What is going on?

[d-day]

Now is that a "valid" DP short on the 3 minute NQ or is it an "invalid" Dp short?

[davidh]

Well it doesn't look very attractive to me. So it'll probably work....

[d-day]

Well it doesn't look very attractive to me. So it'll probably work....


But is it or is it not valid? Does anyone here know for sure?

[d-day]

But is it or is it not valid? Does anyone here know for sure?

Well valid or not it just got stopped out. BUt I'd still like to know what the official MTP line is on these things.

[jjc]

But is it or is it not valid? Does anyone here know for sure?

its valid if it works :)

j

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 3-minute @ 10:12. Short DP.

out on stop for -1R. I guess that answers everybody question.

[davidh]

But is it or is it not valid? Does anyone here know for sure?

Dave, I understand it to be invalid because it came off the 'B' wave peak.
Also I've never been very convinced by DP's like that that span the overnight session, but that's probably an 'invalid' objection.

[G Fryer]

Now is that a "valid" DP short on the 3 minute NQ or is it an "invalid" Dp short?

I took it, and was stopped out. (Bad, Bad DP!!) I think it was invalid... but the one it is at now, off the high of yesterday should be valid. Whether divergence is needed this early is you own call.

Gillian

[TAS]

Obviously, DP from B pivot is less reliable than DP from major high or low, but what should we say if such DP verdicts itself as VALID if statistics give it a nod?

Keep learning...:)

TAS

[G Fryer]

ES 03-08 5-minute @ 9:40. Buy DP. Another one of those disappearing trades. The very next bar was a blue bar which should confirm the DP signal. Bu the DP signal disappeared from the chart. Prices did not trade lower than than the signal bar which would invalidate the signal. What is going on?

I think is disappeared because there was no divergence and the software looks for that. I can't even force a manual DP chart analysis to give me anything. It looked nice as a DP swing from the previous low and after a gap down. I took entry off the top of the 800 tick low bar at 1355.75.

I don't like being in opposite trades since I tend to get closed out for both ( I took the later NQ DP sell) but at lest I am still ITM so far. Kinda stalled here now the gap is filled.

Gillian

[Tony Beckwith]

scjohn

I suspect there was no bullish divergence by the close of the blue buy bar, see my screenshot of the 5min ES you refer to.

DP label may have appeared on the previous (grey) bar because at that time there was divergence - however, that was not a blue buy bar

Thanks

Tony.

[G Fryer]

scjohn

I suspect there was no bullish divergence by the close of the blue buy bar, see my screenshot of the 5min ES you refer to.

DP label may have appeared on the previous (grey) bar because at that time there was divergence - however, that was not a blue buy bar

Thanks

Tony.

Exactly... the bar was grey when I saw the DP (potential) signal. Then I looked around for a shorter time frame to get a better entry. I like the ES since you can get so much more data.

Gillian

[Tony Beckwith]

David Day

davidh is correct - the DP you mention would be off a wave B, which we believe to be less reliable than those in 'new territory'.
Steve's latest DP coding eliminates those DPs.

Thanks

Tony.

[jay21]

Well valid or not it just got stopped out. BUt I'd still like to know what the official MTP line is on these things.

I definitely agree with you Dave - I would love to know as well. I haven't really heard anything on that subject before our discussion here now...

[jay21]

I definitely agree with you Dave - I would love to know as well. I haven't really heard anything on that subject before our discussion here now...

And here we obviously already had a reply...

[Tony Beckwith]

see my post 3 mins before yours!

[scJohn]

Thanks all.

[d-day]

David Day

davidh is correct - the DP you mention would be off a wave B, which we believe to be less reliable than those in 'new territory'.
Steve's latest DP coding eliminates those Dps.

Thanks

Tony.

Well that answers the question. And, as the new script will eliminate those DP's, I shall henceforth disregard them (for the most part).

[jojab]

From Steve in post 3188:

Hi Guys,

Blimey, looks like we are all starting 2008 with a real sarcastic attitude. Personally this is not the attitude for a professional trader. But then, what do I know

BTW, I am just testing a new version that has amended DP rules to cut out the "wave b" DP, as this was not how I intended the DP to work. This looks to be working well and looks to have improved the DP win/loss ratio by cutting out many losing DP trades....

Once I Have a new version complete, then I will let you all know

Steve

[G Fryer]

Well that answers the question. And, as the new script will eliminate those DP's, I shall henceforth disregard them (for the most part).

We've all paid Rs for that lesson in the past few days. I guess those are the best lessons, since we'll remember it now!

G

[d-day]

So the DP on the 3 minute chart that you can currently project off the 10 EST bar, would that be a valid DP? Or would we only be looking to short against the DP projected off the 15:24 bar high from yesterday afternoon?

[jay21]

see my post 3 mins before yours!

Thanks Tony,

If I may suggest so it would be great with a tutorial on this particular subject. I must admit I am not really sure which DPs to disregard..., or if you could explain further...?

Is it the ones that has a more extreme price high or low close before the bar that triggers the DP that one should treat with caution...?

[jjc]

So the DP on the 3 minute chart that you can currently project off the 10 EST bar, would that be a valid DP? Or would we only be looking to short against the DP projected off the 15:24 bar high from yesterday afternoon?


i dont know about you but i got short on that es 3min dp and if u do the math that dp is fib .786 from that 15:24 bar which in turns projects a bearish gartley pattern overall

gotta give it a try, right?

j

[d-day]

i dont know about you but i got short on that es 3min dp and if u do the math that dp is fib .786 from that 15:24 bar which in turns projects a bearish gartley pattern overall

gotta give it a try, right?

j


I got short myself at 1361.50 - a bit late perhaps, but we shall see.

[d-day]

From Steve in post 3188:



Hey jojab,

I guess I should keep my mouth shut and not ask questions.

C ya later

[jojab]

Hey jojab,

I guess I should keep my mouth shut and not ask questions.

C ya later

I hope you didn't think I was being a wise-guy. I was just trying to help out in the discussion. Someone yesterday made the comment that Steve addressed this a while back so I did some searching to see if I could find the post.

[jay21]

I hope you didn't think I was being a wise-guy. I was just trying to help out in the discussion. Someone yesterday made the comment that Steve addressed this a while back so I did some searching to see if I could find the post.

Thanks for your help man - I was looking for that thing...!!

[G Fryer]

I'm liking typing my trades into a spread sheet as I go, rather than my chicken scratch note taking. I have it set-up as in the email Matt sent yesterday. I can even read it!

G

[jjc]

Hey jojab,

I guess I should keep my mouth shut and not ask questions.

C ya later

DDay, dont pay attention to this guy trying to give you a hard time. I for one, truely appreciate the hard work you put in here. If it wasnt for you I would be lost using this software.

Keep up the good work!!!

j

[jojab]

DDay, dont pay attention to this guy trying to give you a hard time.

j


I wasn't trying to give him a hard time. I was trying to post Steve's official position...which is what was asked for. All I did was cut and paste the post from Steve.

[tar001]

anyone in this? or waiting for the Fed? tick tock
:D

[Larry22]

Yup I bought at 697.9, allready sold my last one at around 700 as I don't wanna take any chances before the announcement. :D

[Larry22]

Oh I forgot to mention that I had sold near the top, it was at a DP and a projection, so for me I might stand aside for the rest of the day unless I get a very low risk trade.

Why risk more I'm happy with my earnings today.


Laurent

[tar001]

so you're saying I'm late to the party? haha what time frame did you use to enter? I saw it hit the DP on the 5 minute and using a 3 minute bar this was the best I could do. Is that where you use a 1 minute?


Yup I bought at 697.9, allready sold my last one at around 700 as I don't wanna take any chances before the announcement. :D

[Larry22]

so you're saying I'm late to the party? haha what time frame did you use to enter? I saw it hit the DP on the 5 minute and using a 3 minute bar this was the best I could do. Is that where you use a 1 minute?


Yup even then I had to buy at the market when it spiked down,but with Ninja I have an ATM programmed for a 1 point stop loss and allready predertimed profit tagets at 2 points on some of my contracts, that's the beauty with this software.

[tar001]

show off hahaha just kidding
great trading
:D



Yup even then I had to buy at the market when it spiked down,but with Ninja I have an ATM programmed for a 1 point stop loss and allready predertimed profit tagets at 2 points on some of my contracts, that's the beauty with this software.

[Larry22]

show off hahaha just kidding
great trading
:D

To help you a bit look at my 1 min charts, you will see why I was quick on the trigger on that one. I had 2 clusters, the DP and a price projections plus divergence on the Stochastic and my mac was screaming to buy.

[tar001]

your mac was screaming to buy? no wonder!! I use a pc :D I get why you were in a hurry to buy but why the hurry to sell? by the way that was probably me buying them from you hahah



To help you a bit look at my 1 min charts, you will see why I was quick on the trigger on that one. I had 2 clusters, the DP and a price projections plus divergence on the Stochastic and my mac was screaming to buy.

[Larry22]

The reason why I sold the top this morning.

Price, DP and divergence.

Enough said. ;)

[G Fryer]

... my mac was screaming to buy.

I knew there had to be other Macsters out there... I just didn't know who they were.

Gillian

[TreeShaker]

To help you a bit look at my 1 min charts, you will see why I was quick on the trigger on that one. I had 2 clusters, the DP and a price projections plus divergence on the Stochastic and my mac was screaming to buy.

That's a weird looking MACD Larry. What are you using?

[Larry22]

I knew there had to be other Macsters out there... I just didn't know who they were.

Gillian

Hum :rolleyes: Mac or PC ? To be or not to be ?

I have a PC my MACDBB was screaming to buy. :D

Yup the technology is incredible these days :confused:

[Larry22]

That's a weird looking MACD Larry. What are you using?


MacdBB, a MAC with bollinger bands, I have just tried it this week and this helps me a lot to define the trend and help me not to take trades against the trend unless I have confirmation of the trend change by the MAC.

Laurent

[G Fryer]

So I'm the only one here running two operating systems synchronously and playing real time?

Gillian

[tar001]

stayed long the entire time
:D

[TreeShaker]

So I'm the only one here running two operating systems synchronously and playing real time?

Gillian

Why would you want to?:confused:

[Sanjay]

stayed long the entire time
:D

hmm..good for you..that was pretty brave ;-)

[jjc]

anyone else's esignal shutdown?

[tar001]

its not so much that I wanted to but I had my stops in and figured(hoped) it would at least hit this DP

'

Why would you want to?:confused:

[Larry22]

anyone else's esignal shutdown?

I only have the feed with Ninja and it's ok.

[G Fryer]

Why would you want to?:confused:

Because the ONLY reason I have to run Windows is MTP... and a little Nolo software. Otherwise, Macs can do everything, and more pleasantly too. So I run an emulation program to run windows to run MTP. I don't want to boot to Windows since I want to do other stuff at the same time, like watch the web and read email without the concern for viruses, etc.

Gillian

[jjc]

I only have the feed with Ninja and it's ok.

thx larry -musta been all that volume

j

[TreeShaker]

its not so much that I wanted to but I had my stops in and figured(hoped) it would at least hit this DP

'

That question was meant for Gillian TAR. Congrates on your trade.

[TreeShaker]

MacdBB, a MAC with bollinger bands, I have just tried it this week and this helps me a lot to define the trend and help me not to take trades against the trend unless I have confirmation of the trend change by the MAC.

Laurent

You have a private msg.

[Larry22]

You have a private msg.


OK I have sent you a reply.

[scJohn]

ER2 03-08 3-minute. Short DP.
out at profit target for 6.1R.
Nice way to end the day.

[jjc]

Little birdy called me and said that recalculations based on overnight data have caused a revision to an expercted close at 1348 - so not nearly so dire as it looked last night. The daily range is expected to be 1340-1357.


We shall see.


good grief Dday - on fomc day and you missed it by just a few points - how in the world did you do that? - that is some kind of golden goose you have.

j

[tar001]

MTP sure made up for yesterday. I am still in shock(well Im actually in my office but you get the idea) hahahah



ER2 03-08 3-minute. Short DP.
out at profit target for 6.1R.
Nice way to end the day.

[jay21]

good grief Dday - on fomc day and you missed it by just a few points - how in the world did you do that? - that is some kind of golden goose you have.

j

Yes, truly amazingly golden little birdie there!!!:eek:

[d-day]

good grief Dday - on fomc day and you missed it by just a few points - how in the world did you do that? - that is some kind of golden goose you have.

j

Remember, it was a Sell Short day, and as such we expected the market to make a high (preferably a higher high than the previous day - though that is itself not necessary) and then make its low. Now, if the violent volatility surrounding this afternoon's rally and subsequent collapse hasn't thrown the cycle for a loop, we should expect tomorrow to be a buy day. However, it is a bear market, and the cycle will often stretch in the direction of the primary cycle. Sso while we should expect a lower low tomorrow, we cannot just buy indiscriminately. That is, while on the lookout for buying opportunities at support, we could in fact be on our way down to test last week's lows.

I'll have to see what that little birdy tells e to expect when I talk to him later on.

[tar001]

so did we go up and touch that trend line?


Hi Tom,

Here is the weekly chart of S&P 500 that explains my thinking. Currently, the index is resting at a confluence of weekly DP levels. If the index bounces up from here, it is likely to attempt two things:
a) test the broken trend line and b) retrace into and test the area around the down sloping 30 week MA. This potential area is the one I called in my previous message as "old high". This kind of retracement, testing and potential whipsaws in this area have been noted in the early stages of previous bear markets -- again, Weinstein's book has plenty of charts illustrating this pattern.

I hope this helps.

Rama.

[rrs]

so did we go up and touch that trend line?

Hi Tom,

Congratulations on all the great trades you took today and posted here in the forum!

I will be working very late today. I will try to post the updated chart as soon as I get home. In the mean time, you can eye ball the chart I posted and see if it touched the trend line or not. It may not be very accurate, but it will give you an approximate answer.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[tar001]

Hey Ramma
I looked at that chart you had posted before I asked you and I cant tell if the trend line is at 1385'ish or 1395'ish? if its 1385 it nailed it
:D



QUOTE=rrs;13701]Hi Tom,

Congratulations on all the great trades you took today and posted here in the forum!

I will be working very late today. I will try to post the updated chart as soon as I get home. In the mean time, you can eye ball the chart I posted and see if it touched the trend line or not. It may not be very accurate, but it will give you an approximate answer.

Sincerely,

Rama.[/QUOTE]

[d-day]

good grief Dday - on fomc day and you missed it by just a few points - how in the world did you do that? - that is some kind of golden goose you have.

j

golden goose, aka little birdie, tells me SPX close at 1381 for Thursday.

[rrs]

Hey Ramma
I looked at that chart you had posted before I asked you and I cant tell if the trend line is at 1385'ish or 1395'ish? if its 1385 it nailed it
:D

Hi Tom,

Congratulations on all the great trades you took today and posted here in the forum!

I will be working very late today. I will try to post the updated chart as soon as I get home. In the mean time, you can eye ball the chart I posted and see if it touched the trend line or not. It may not be very accurate, but it will give you an approximate answer.

Sincerely,

Rama.

Hi Tom,

I just looked at the chart I posted and made some crude measurement. The trend line appears to be at 1385.

Rama.

[tar001]

Hi
thats what I thought, so its down from here? or a few more bounces in store?


Hi Tom,

I just looked at the chart I posted and made some crude measurement. The trend line appears to be at 1385.

Rama.

[tar001]

1381? really? did you pick some up tonight? the are on sale
:D



golden goose, aka little birdie, tells me SPX close at 1381 for Thursday.

[rrs]

Hi
thats what I thought, so its down from here? or a few more bounces in store?

Hi Tom,

I anticipate some whipsaws and bounces here. Early clues will be in the price action and volume changes that go with the price action.

Rama.

[jay21]

Remember, it was a Sell Short day, and as such we expected the market to make a high (preferably a higher high than the previous day - though that is itself not necessary) and then make its low. Now, if the violent volatility surrounding this afternoon's rally and subsequent collapse hasn't thrown the cycle for a loop, we should expect tomorrow to be a buy day. However, it is a bear market, and the cycle will often stretch in the direction of the primary cycle. Sso while we should expect a lower low tomorrow, we cannot just buy indiscriminately. That is, while on the lookout for buying opportunities at support, we could in fact be on our way down to test last week's lows.

I'll have to see what that little birdy tells e to expect when I talk to him later on.

Hey Dave,

just a thought I had relating to the LSS-model and yesterday's action.

Wouldn't it be possible to see yesterday as a second Sell-day, thus moving the cycle into four days. After all the selling wasn't very pronounced looking at the day as a whole, one could hardly argue that the trend was negative during the day looking at its entirety. If so today would then likely be a Sell Short-day.

What do you think - any chances of that?

[jjc]

golden goose, aka little birdie, tells me SPX close at 1381 for Thursday.

Thanks Dave, i bot me some down here -plan to hold to at/near 1381

j

[Eddo]

There was this little bird sitting on a very low branch of a tree in a farmers field watching as a big Bull came and did its 'business' under the tree. The littel bird was delighted because the bulls 'business' soon attacted lots of flys and insects for him to eat.

Down from the tree the little bird flew and had a lovely peck from the Bull's 'gift' and then flew back up to the tree landing on a higher branch. Very soon the little bird felt hungry again and down he flew to fill his tummy again and then back up (to an even higher branch) on the tree he flew.

To cut a very long story short, after some time of flying down to feed and then flying back up higher and higher into the tree, our little bird was finally at the very top and feeling very pleased with himself he thought he would just sit there and sing for while.

At that moment the farmer came into the field with a great big shotgun and shot our little bird dead !

So whats the moral of this sad little tale?

Well its this: - if you get to the top of the tree on bullshit, don't make a song and dance about it

I lesson for us all I believe - have a great day in the markets :)

Chris

[d-day]

Hey Dave,

just a thought I had relating to the LSS-model and yesterday's action.

Wouldn't it be possible to see yesterday as a second Sell-day, thus moving the cycle into four days. After all the selling wasn't very pronounced looking at the day as a whole, one could hardly argue that the trend was negative during the day looking at its entirety. If so today would then likely be a Sell Short-day.

What do you think - any chances of that?

Anything is possible ... and if you were to read Taylor's book you would find that he made ample allowance for shifts in the cycle, i.e. for days that went contrary to what had been anticipated.

However, I see nothing in yesterday's price action that nullify's a short sale day. And as of right now, I see that the futures are indeed below yesterday's low, so as of this moment, there is no reason for me to expect that a buy day will not occur today.

That being said, this is a bear market, and as such one can expect the cycles to the downside to stretch. So yesterday was, to me, unequivicobly a sell short day; and today I anticipate a buy day. However, as we are in a bear market, we may get more follow through to the downside than we should expect if it were a bull market.

Maybe Ed could respond also, as he seems to have more experience of both the TTT and Raschke's methods than I have.

Good luck to all today,

d-day

[edfash]

good morning all.

remember the Taylor rhythm is a guide, not a mechanical trading system. as you point out the cycle can stretch in the direction of the primary trend.

for me the overriding higher time frame patterns are new momentum lows on the daily/weekly charts (ie new price lows confirmed by new oscillator lows) and a Holy Grail trade at the 20 ema on the daily chart (traded to the ema prior to the end of day selloff). i will post the requirements for a grail trade a little later (linda rashke has published this trade extensively, her words not mine). the target on a grail trade is a retest or new price extremes. but obviously this does not and is unlikely to be achieved in a straight line.

have a great day.

[d-day]

Thanks Dave, i bot me some down here -plan to hold to at/near 1381

j


Good luck ... I usually like to wait 'til after the open to see how things shake out, but I nibbled some myself but scaled out of most already.

[d-day]

Good luck ... I usually like to wait 'til after the open to see how things shake out, but I nibbled some myself but scaled out of most already.


Long and strong here ... see y'all later.

[jjc]

Long and strong here ... see y'all later.

gl dday

numbers in a few minutes

j

watch out for the dow 347

[jjc]

gl dday

numbers in a few minutes

j

watch out for the dow 347

dday

ther now - ther going to try and push it down now so you might want to take some off and see how it does after that

j

[jjc]

dday

ther now - ther going to try and push it down now so you might want to take some off and see how it does after that

j


dday, dow might have legs above 406 - took some off but still holding plenty if it does run

j

[d-day]

dday

ther now - ther going to try and push it down now so you might want to take some off and see how it does after that

j

17.25 ES points down, 32.25 to go!

I'm holding a core position with a trailing stop for the day in one account, and I've been doing these reverse DP's on the 500ov in the other. Everytime a DP short signals, I buy at the sell stop price and I sell at the initial stop loss price - making a killing!

We may very well have a trend day on tap with a close at the other end of the open. Nothing is certain of course, and that's what trailing stops are for.

[d-day]

We may very well have a trend day on tap with a close at the other end of the open. Nothing is certain of course, and that's what trailing stops are for.


I'm also mindful that once we begin an intermediate leg down on the 3 minute chart we will have a potential DP below the LOD as a downside magnet.

[jay21]

Anything is possible ... and if you were to read Taylor's book you would find that he made ample allowance for shifts in the cycle, i.e. for days that went contrary to what had been anticipated.

However, I see nothing in yesterday's price action that nullify's a short sale day. And as of right now, I see that the futures are indeed below yesterday's low, so as of this moment, there is no reason for me to expect that a buy day will not occur today.

That being said, this is a bear market, and as such one can expect the cycles to the downside to stretch. So yesterday was, to me, unequivicobly a sell short day; and today I anticipate a buy day. However, as we are in a bear market, we may get more follow through to the downside than we should expect if it were a bull market.

Maybe Ed could respond also, as he seems to have more experience of both the TTT and Raschke's methods than I have.

Good luck to all today,

d-day

Thanks for this Dave!!

Yeah, looking at the gap down open and the up trend here I agree it looks more like a buy day. And we should of course not underestimate the power of your golden birdie...:)

[jjc]

dday

looks like we need to clear this measured move, 1349?, for some legs?

j

[d-day]

dday

looks like we need to clear this measured move, 1349?, for some legs?

j

We'll clear it.

[scJohn]

ER2 03-08 1-minute @ 10:40. Buy C[TS3].

nice trade if anybody took it. I did not - no confidence.
out 1st profit target for a nice 4.1R.

[d-day]

We'll clear it.


Not bad for a dunbar$e like me who needs Bold type shouted at him while he wipes the birdpoop out of his eye.

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 4-minute @ 11:02. Sell C[TS3].

[jjc]

dunbar$e


if 49/47's hold i'l take quarters off at 60



j

[scJohn]

NQ 03-08 4-minute @ 11:02. Sell C[TS3].

out on stop for -1R.

[d-day]

if 49/47's hold i'l take quarters off at 60



j


Here's what I'm looking at ... and I'll buy more on the way back up through that DP signal.

[d-day]

... and I'll buy more on the way back up through that DP signal.


Work's like a charm :cool:

[d-day]

out on stop for -1R.

Hey man ... didn't you get the memo? It's a buy day! If little guys like us keep selling 'em, the pro's will keep buying 'em.

[jjc]

if 49/47's hold i'l take quarters off at 60



j

Mr Dunbar$se

i took halfs off at 1360 - you're not mad are you? hehe


j

[d-day]

Hey man ... didn't you get the memo? It's a buy day! If little guys like us keep selling 'em, the pro's will keep buying 'em.


This is what I would call a Buy Day, even if this sucker reverses and crashes later on today.

[d-day]

Mr Dunbar$se

i took halfs off at 1360 - you're not mad are you? hehe


j

I've been selling and buying back all day long - I churned out quite a bit in the sixties meself and bot a few back here in the high fifties - looking to see if we pull back to the red trendline you'll see in my screen shots and the see if it holds before I get bold again.

[Sanjay]

Here's what I'm looking at ... and I'll buy more on the way back up through that DP signal.

Hi Dave,
If I may aks, What timeframe is this chart, can't make out with the blue letters..I have a 3 and 5 min chart and have not got a DP on them.
thanks
sanjay:confused:

[TreeShaker]

J and Dave, am I missing something? Where is your entry signal? :confused:

[d-day]

I've been selling and buying back all day long - I churned out quite a bit in the sixties meself and bot a few back here in the high fifties - looking to see if we pull back to the red trendline you'll see in my screen shots and the see if it holds before I get bold again.

I'm long and strong agin and I have a sell limit at 1379 and that's where I'll quit for the day. Maybe we do some back and fill here during lunch.

[jjc]

I've been selling and buying back all day long - I churned out quite a bit in the sixties meself and bot a few back here in the high fifties - looking to see if we pull back to the red trendline you'll see in my screen shots and the see if it holds before I get bold again.

ok, but didnt you warn me 1349 was 3dayBP? - we'r well clear of that but i'l watch for that 49 just in case

i can just smell that 81 tho - however, im still stuck trying to figure out that birdie and bull nursery rhyme :confused:

j

[jjc]

i can just smell that 81 tho

dday - got rid of some more at ur 1375 (fib 786)

you really need to have a talk with that birdie - missing it by 6 pts from way down ther is not acceptable :)

or, do we still hit it?

j

[d-day]

ok, but didnt you warn me 1349 was 3dayBP? - we'r well clear of that but i'l watch for that 49 just in case

i can just smell that 81 tho - however, im still stuck trying to figure out that birdie and bull nursery rhyme :confused:

j


I think the story meant to say I was full of bullplop, but I'm still a farmboy at heart, so I took no offense.

Anyhow, here's how we made out since that last buy point that I mentioned was coming up - just two little contracts with a $150 risk would have kept that birdie in seed for the rest of his little life. And by the by, I do believe that we may get another chanvce to buy real soon somewhere betwee 13-66 and 1372 for another asault on that 1381. Now I'm loking to bail and go ice fishing at 1379, so I need you all to buy the dickens out of this thing so I can shut down and get out of here lol.

[d-day]

dday - got rid of some more at ur 1375 (fib 786)

you really need to have a talk with that birdie - missing it by 6 pts from way down ther is not acceptable :)

or, do we still hit it?

j


1381 is about the 886 fib, im still looking for it but I take it all off at 1379 if we get there.

We still need a pullback to the red trendline and then see if that holds

[jjc]

1381 is about the 886 fib, im still looking for it but I take it all off at 1379 if we get there.

We still need a pullback to the red trendline and then see if that holds


i left 3 in just for grins but missing it by less than 6pts from 1330.00 is a direct hit in my book - geez, what is the percent ratio of hitting that?

all i can say is, i hope that lil birdie doesnt get bird flu and die on u

j

[d-day]

Hi Dave,
If I may aks, What timeframe is this chart, can't make out with the blue letters..I have a 3 and 5 min chart and have not got a DP on them.
thanks
sanjay:confused:


that is a 5000V
chart

[Sanjay]

that is a 5000V
chart

hmm..thanks I look at the 10000v chart. BTW..the low of the day in the ES was a manual DP if you look at the pivot formed on 1/28 at 12:20 ish..

[edfash]

Awsome call on the market direction today David.

Some nice trade opportunity in the ER today. A nice corrective ABC which lead to a 5 wave sequence that completed at a perfect 1:1 relationship between w1 and w5 (the red fib extension at 711.7).

[TreeShaker]

Dave and J, it seems that you are enjoying a great trade. Congradulations. However, I asked earlier what the basis of the entry was and didn't get a reply. I hope it's not a birdie. If it is I think you should reveal where that bird roost.

[d-day]

Awsome call on the market direction today David.

Some nice trade opportunity in the ER today. A nice corrective ABC which lead to a 5 wave sequence that completed at a perfect 1:1 relationship between w1 and w5 (the red fib extension at 711.7).

So what do you think, Ed, do we head into the 714 on the ER2 today, or are they going to save it for a gap open to sell into tomorrow?

[jjc]

Dave and J, it seems that you are enjoying a great trade. Congradulations. However, I asked earlier what the basis of the entry was and didn't get a reply. I hope it's not a birdie. If it is I think you should reveal where that bird roost.

treestump, if ur asking me that question ur asking the wrong person. im trading dday's call he posted last night

he has an uncanny ability to read the market - hope he doesnt leave us for wallstreet

j

[d-day]

Well, we finally came to my trendline, and it didn't do too well. I will be giving it up here soon if we do not regain the top of that trendline soon. The first screen shot shows the trendline violation, the second shows the test as resistance. We do have a TS3 buy on the 3 minute YM, so maybe price will get back up on top of this trendline. If not, then I'd lok for support at the closest DP below, and if we do not hold there, a deeper retrace may be in the cards.


Anyone here long the YM on that 3 minute TS3?

[TreeShaker]

treestump, if ur asking me that question ur asking the wrong person. im trading dday's call he posted last night

he has an uncanny ability to read the market - hope he doesnt leave us for wallstreet

j

I agree that he made a good call, but if he is going to post the trade he should state the basis of the entry. Even if it's "Not MTP, just gut feeling, take at your own risk." I the mean time I'm searching my charts to see what I missed and can't find anything. I don't want to sound like sour grapes, but I'm trying to learn and frankly I'm confused by the string of post about the entry and the selling of the highs and buying the lows on the way up. I don't see andy MPT basis, and if it's not, it should be explained. IMHO.:confused:

[d-day]

Well, we finally came to my trendline, and it didn't do too well. I will be giving it up here soon if we do not regain the top of that trendline soon. The first screen shot shows the trendline violation, the second shows the test as resistance. We do have a TS3 buy on the 3 minute YM, so maybe price will get back up on top of this trendline. If not, then I'd lok for support at the closest DP below, and if we do not hold there, a deeper retrace may be in the cards.

In my opinion, we need to stay above or reverse up from that little DP or this rally may not make it to that 1381 today.

[TreeShaker]

Well, we finally came to my trendline, and it didn't do too well. I will be giving it up here soon if we do not regain the top of that trendline soon. The first screen shot shows the trendline violation, the second shows the test as resistance. We do have a TS3 buy on the 3 minute YM, so maybe price will get back up on top of this trendline. If not, then I'd lok for support at the closest DP below, and if we do not hold there, a deeper retrace may be in the cards.


Anyone here long the YM on that 3 minute TS3?

Divergence didn't seem to support it Dave. I passed for that reason and seems to be going nowhere, so far.

[tar001]

any chance of reaching DP #2?
:D

[d-day]

I agree that he made a good call, but if he is going to post the trade he should state the basis of the entry. Even if it's "Not MTP, just gut feeling, take at your own risk." I the mean time I'm searching my charts to see what I missed and can't find anything. I don't want to sound like sour grapes, but I'm trying to learn and frankly I'm confused by the string of post about the entry and the selling of the highs and buying the lows on the way up. I don't see andy MPT basis, and if it's not, it should be explained. IMHO.:confused:

As far as selling highs and buying lows on the way up, I sell at fib extensions with waning momentum, and I buy at support - that is not "gut feeling" but objective, low risk (in terms of having a known stopping point for any loss, i.e. a break of support). As far as the initial buy, we were saying last night that today should be a buy day, and we should expect an opportunity to buy belwo yesterday's low, perhaps with a gap down at the open. This is based on an understanding of short-term market cycles that is explained in a book almost 57 years old. No gut feeling, just watching the market. The market opened and was unable to trade below the globex low, so if it ain't going down, then silly me with the straw-filled brain of a farmboy thought well its going up ... where's it going to go?

Also, you know we always specify if it is an MTP set-up, so why get you bark in a bunch if we do not take the time to type out "CAUTION! WARNING! TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK! THIS IS NOT AN MTP SET-UP AND IT IS LIKELY THE HAIR (OR IS IT HARE) BRAINED IDEA OF SOME DUMB YANKEE FULL 'O THE OLD BULL PUCKEY"

And if you read me posts, you will see I mention a reverse DP trade, which is sometimes known as a "DP Continutation trade", which I do beleive is in the MTP repertoire.

[jands]

I agree that he made a good call, but if he is going to post the trade he should state the basis of the entry. Even if it's "Not MTP, just gut feeling, take at your own risk." I the mean time I'm searching my charts to see what I missed and can't find anything. I don't want to sound like sour grapes, but I'm trying to learn and frankly I'm confused by the string of post about the entry and the selling of the highs and buying the lows on the way up. I don't see andy MPT basis, and if it's not, it should be explained. IMHO.:confused:

Hi TreeShaker,

I see your point but I did understand from Dday's earlier post that he took the buy and that it was not MTP related by reading his earlier posts, granted to know that, you have to be following the posts closely.

I don't want to discourage anyone from making these posts, because I am learning a great deal on "reading the market" much like I did when Steve gave his daily reports.

Maybe they could put in a quick note that their trade is not MTP related, which I do see done quite often.

AND HUGE THANKS FOR ALL OF YOU SHARING YOUR INSIGHTS AND STRATEGIES, GREATLY APPRECIATED!!!

Jim

[d-day]

Divergence didn't seem to support it Dave. I passed for that reason and seems to be going nowhere, so far.

I posted the following on 01-15-2008, 03:24 PM


If you are expecting a trend day, where the market opens at one end of its range and closes at the other, then you should belooking for a low risk trade entry where you can get on board for the ride. Most days are not trend days. Most days range back and forth from ahigh to low to higher high to lower low etc etc. On those days you look for divergence to to get you into a position. On a trend day, you look for a good retracement to support/resistance and jump on board.


Now, at least given the evidence so far, today looks to me to be a trend day, not a zig zag day.

[rrs]

ES Price - Volume analysis is indicative of heavy selling at 1376; note the very high volume bars at this level followed by market drifting downward. It will be interesting to see what happens when the price action tests 1370 to 1376 level.

Rama.

[d-day]

Divergence didn't seem to support it Dave. I passed for that reason and seems to be going nowhere, so far.

Its up about 3R right here with a DP sell signal (albeit not a valid DP sell).

[TreeShaker]

I posted the following on 01-15-2008, 03:24 PM





Now, at least given the evidence so far, today looks to me to be a trend day, not a zig zag day.

Thanks for the reply Dave. I enjoy your insights into the market as much anybody on the forum. But sometimes, like today, you lose me and I hate confusion. I was looking for the entry that you spoke of and didn't see any. Then you posted that you were in but I still see nothing. So I'm asking how did he get in? Entry point was based on what?

A while back Steve scolded us for straying from the MTP plan on the forum and every one started just putting (not MTP) and that was helpful. I think that is still a good thing to do. I hope you make many post because they are very good. And I would still like to know how you picked your entry point.

[G Fryer]

Better late than never: TS3 on the 3min YM @ 12:57. Long at 12490.

Gillian

[edfash]

not sure what is in the cards for the rest of the day, although odds do favor a continuation as internals are trending nicely.
i am long on that YM TS3, so we will see.
if you look back over the past years there is a very strong tendency (>80%) for the market to rally into the employment report, and then sell off the day of or the following day. meanwhile i am a bull for the moment.:D

[d-day]

ES Price - Volume analysis is indicative of heavy selling at 1376; note the very high volume bars at this level followed by market drifting downward. It will be interesting to see what happens when the price action tests 1370 to 1376 level.

Rama.

You think that's heavy, wait until you see the selling at 1381

[TreeShaker]

Its up about 3R right here with a DP sell signal (albeit not a valid DP sell).

Yeah, after 13 bars on 2 min it finally got some legs. At the time of the signal diver was flat on bottom from previous A pivot to TS3 signal and slanting down on the top side. To me that was a caution not to take it. I will just have to cheer for those of you who did take it.

[d-day]

Yeah, after 13 bars on 2 min it finally got some legs. At the time of the signal diver was flat on bottom from previous A pivot to TS3 signal and slanting down on the top side. To me that was a caution not to take it. I will just have to cheer for those of you who did take it.


But ... oh, nevermind.

[tar001]

so far so good:D :D now it gets tricky!! sell here?


QUOTE=tar001;13755]any chance of reaching DP #2?
:D[/QUOTE]

[tar001]

nope I guess not on the way to the last and final DP I suppose
and to think every newsletter I read last night said to short this market today


so far so good:D :D now it gets tricky!! sell here?


QUOTE=tar001;13755]any chance of reaching DP #2?
:D[/QUOTE]

[d-day]

I took in my longs and put a 1 short ES at 1373 on the bearish Gartley pattern visibile on the 3 minute ES.

1371.75 would have been the patient way to reverse but I had an itchy trigger finger.

[tar001]

headed to this DP? reload there?
:confused:




nope I guess not on the way to the last and final DP I suppose
and to think every newsletter I read last night said to short this market today


[/QUOTE]

[d-day]

and to think every newsletter I read last night said to short this market today

I guess I ought to start publishing a newsletter for them newsletter publishers so they could give you the right information then. ;)

[d-day]

I took in my longs and put a 1 short ES at 1373 on the bearish Gartley pattern visibile on the 3 minute ES.

1371.75 would have been the patient way to reverse but I had an itchy trigger finger.

Well I had a buy limit at 1368 and didn't get filled so for the sake of 1 tick I'm out at +1 tick instead of +5 points on that short ... but looking to short again maybe.

[tar001]

seriously you should, your calls over the past few days have been nothing short of amazing(really)
I just shorted the ER at 713(DP) wont hold long though
:D

I guess I ought to start publsihing a newsletter for thoem newsletter publishers so they could give you the right information then. ;)

[d-day]

but looking to short again maybe.

That is one big bar on the 3 minute chart and we're getting a little too volatile for my likeing so I'm likely done for the day. These guys just can't decide whether we're going to 1381 or to 1341 lol.

[tar001]

1381 is more likely


That is one big bar on the 3 minute chart and we're getting a little too volatile for my likeing so I'm likely done for the day. These guys just can't decide whether we're going to 1381 or to 1341 lol.

[jjc]

That is one big bar on the 3 minute chart and we're getting a little too volatile for my likeing so I'm likely done for the day. These guys just can't decide whether we're going to 1381 or to 1341 lol.

dday, i brot my stop up to 1365 in hopes of hitting that 1381 we wer long on

i cud kiss you for that trade you called out last night and we did this morn but i wudnt want anyone to get the wrong idea :D


j

[d-day]

1381 is more likely


little birdy still says we hit it before the close, but then again, what do birds really know?

[tar001]

what does the birdy say tomorrow brings or hasn't it spoken yet about that?



little birdy still says we hit it before the close, but then again, what do birds really know?

[d-day]

little birdy still says we hit it before the close, but then again, what do birds really know?

But on the 3 minute I se a potential three little indians with declining momo on the 5,3,3 so we need Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson to start buying some futures right about now so we can make one final push into the 1381.

[d-day]

I just covered the YM and long and went short the YM on the auto DP - let's see how this plays out.

[TAS]

Hi Dave,

well, if we finish at 1381ish and confirm the BUY DAY, we might check the overnight market extremes and the relative open for tomorrow before deciding what day tomorrow may be following the BUY DAY, 2 possible choice out there, BUY DAY NO. 2 or SELL DAY, am I right?

thank you for inputting.:)

TAS

[d-day]

But on the 3 minute I se a potential three little indians with declining momo on the 5,3,3 so we need Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson to start buying some futures right about now so we can make one final push into the 1381.


I guess I should have done it the other way - a reverse DP

ES has a 1379.50 high - so I should have waited 'til 1381 before trying to sell anythin more short

[edfash]

wow. talk about leaving your bias at the door and trading the price action. this ym survived the atr stop with the ratchet turned off by 1 tick.
714-no problem.

[tar001]

If Hank and Ben can do anything right it is buying futures!! don't worry America all is well, go out and spend spend spend(PLEASE)
:D


But on the 3 minute I se a potential three little indians with declining momo on the 5,3,3 so we need Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson to start buying some futures right about now so we can make one final push into the 1381.

[tar001]

whoa!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1381 it is!!
amazing!!!!!!!!










I guess I should have done it the other way - a reverse DP

ES has a 1379.50 high - so I should have waited 'til 1381 before trying to sell anythin more short

[edfash]

so let me see if i get this right. let's borrow money from the chinese gov't to buy futures and convince the public that everything is happy in dodge, so they can use the rebate checks that we borrowed the money from the chinese gov't to pay for, to buy goods made in china. makes perfect sense to me. (but i guess the fed is above politics)

[d-day]

so let me see if i get this right. let's borrow money from the chinese gov't to buy futures and convince the public that everything is happy in dodge, so they can use the rebate checks that we borrowed the money from the chinese gov't to pay for, to buy goods made in china. makes perfect sense to me. (but i guess the fed is above politics)


I hope you're a Ron Paul supporter talking like that

[jjc]

Dday, i closed out that ES trade at 1381.00 -nice journey we wer on today

But, wasnt that supposed to be the SPX that had a target of 1381.00?

SPX hitting 1381 now

(if i have anymore children at my old age im naming them dday)



j

[tar001]

don't forget that you MIGHT be able to buy a whole tank of gas with that rebate
whoo- hoo way to go Bernanke



so let me see if i get this right. let's borrow money from the chinese gov't to buy futures and convince the public that everything is happy in dodge, so they can use the rebate checks that we borrowed the money from the chinese gov't to pay for, to buy goods made in china. makes perfect sense to me. (but i guess the fed is above politics)

[d-day]

golden goose, aka little birdie, tells me SPX close at 1381 for Thursday. That was posted last night at 11:44 PM

if you get to the top of the tree on bullshit, don't make a song and dance about it

Well if I can't sing and dance, may I at least laugh all the way to the bank?


Anyone who wishes to subscribe to my soon to be published newsletter:

"d-day's Bull Crap and Bear Poop - How to trade the markets and come out smelling like a rose"
can send me a private message lol

[TAS]

hugh volatility before the close, day-trader taking profit....

[tar001]

That or GOOG earnings leaked


hugh volatility before the close, day-trader taking profit....

[jjc]

You think that's heavy, wait until you see the selling at 1381

good gawd dday - the market hit your 1381 and the volume went crazy

how in the world did you do that ???


j

[tar001]

oops GOOG missed down 50$ in afterhours


That or GOOG earnings leaked

[rrs]

Hi
thats what I thought, so its down from here? or a few more bounces in store?

Hi Tom,

Here is the updated chart that I mentioned yesterday.

Rama.

[tar001]

Hey thanks for posting that, where do you think we go from here? I am surprised the futures are holding up so well tonight with GOOG's earnings.



Hi Tom,

Here is the updated chart that I mentioned yesterday.

Rama.

[jjc]

Dday - you've had 3 perfect forecasts in a row but can you make it 4 perfect in a row?

How about the OEX this time? Or, will the golden birdie only whisper the SPX?

j

[tar001]

lets not forget the market flipped me the birdie today too
hahahah
too many DP's with divergences today, thanks to David I did not take ALL of them
:D

[d-day]

Dday - you've had 3 perfect forecasts in a row but can you make it 4 perfect in a row?

How about the OEX this time? Or, will the golden birdie only whisper the SPX?

j

Now don't go calling them "forecasts" or you'll have all sorts of folks casting all manner of moralistic tales against me and my folly. I am not forecasting, but I am rather trying to assess probabilities and anticipate the best play given what the probabilities lead me to expect. A poker player cannot forecast his or his opponents hand, but the best poker players are able to assess risk based upon probabilities. That's what we're trying to do.

Tomorrow is a "Sell Day." This mean, ideally, that we see a higher high than today's high into which to liquidate longs initiated today, the Buy Day. A sell day does not m