US Markets: Real-time Trading

[jay21]

[QUOTE=David Day;13800]And how many R's did it save you by not trying to fade the Buy Day, at least not every chance you had? I know some folks think cycles and statistics and quant work is BS, but what else do you have? The news? My goodness, I had Jay asking me if I thought maybe we had two sell days in a row and that today was the sell short day because there had been negative news and the market sold off hard overnight and into the open (no offense meant Jay). Well, those who went short at the open were the ones who fueled the rally through the day. At 9:24 AM this morning I posted the following response to Jay:

[QUOTE]


Hey Dave,

no offense taken, but I just want to mention that the reason why I was suggesting that instead of a sell short day, maybe we had only looked at one more sell day, had nothing to do with the news or the gap down open. To me the day of the FOMC decision just didn't appear that clearly as a sell short day as the day taken as a whole did not really have a negative overall trend.

However the gap down open yesterday and the initiation of the positive trending action thereafter of course made it more obvious that the day before should have been regarded as a Sell short day just like you suggested.

Hey man - your golden humming birdie is just amazing. I suppose not only probabilities can get to a specific number just like that, can you give any clue to what kind of birdseed you feed your little birdie with...:)

[Angel]

Hello guys,

A question for MTP traders who use NinjaTrader with Interactives broker.

Even if my computer is off during the night, is it possible to hold overnight positions with active stop loss using NinjaTrader with Trader Workstation from IB ?

If yes, does NT and or Trader Workstation require special settings because I want that my stop loss keep active on the market ? By "active", I mean that my stop loss level be on the IB server.

Thanks for your help

Happy trading

Cheers

Angel

[d-day]

Jay said "the reason why I was suggesting that instead of a sell short day, maybe we had only looked at one more sell day, had nothing to do with the news or the gap down open. To me the day of the FOMC decision just didn't appear that clearly as a sell short day as the day taken as a whole did not really have a negative overall trend."

All a sell short day needs is the high to be made before the low, which we clearly have on Wednesday. Themarket could gap lower on a sell short day and then trend down all day. The market could gap open higher, sometimes much higher, and then sell off all day. The market could trade sideways for six hours and then sell off, or trade sideways for six hours, spike higher, and then sell off to new lows. When you say things like the day didn't "appear" to "have a negative overall tone" you are being a newsletter editor and no longer thinking about the trading cycle.

[d-day]

Sell stop at 1994.75 in the pre-market -target 1388 for now.

[d-day]

Sell stop at 1994.75 in the pre-market -target 1388 for now.



That was a nice quick profit. I wonder if we'll see 1366 today?

[edfash]

good morning to all.
nice trade david. i like using tick charts, especially in the globex session.
btw i think your idea for an options thread is a terrific idea.

[jay21]

Jay said "the reason why I was suggesting that instead of a sell short day, maybe we had only looked at one more sell day, had nothing to do with the news or the gap down open. To me the day of the FOMC decision just didn't appear that clearly as a sell short day as the day taken as a whole did not really have a negative overall trend."

All a sell short day needs is the high to be made before the low, which we clearly have on Wednesday. Themarket could gap lower on a sell short day and then trend down all day. The market could gap open higher, sometimes much higher, and then sell off all day. The market could trade sideways for six hours and then sell off, or trade sideways for six hours, spike higher, and then sell off to new lows. When you say things like the day didn't "appear" to "have a negative overall tone" you are being a newsletter editor and no longer thinking about the trading cycle.


Alright Dave - understood. That is a very clear way of describing a Sell short day, and I really like it. Too much in this biz that is subjective...

Can I also then ask you objectively and in the same manner - how do you define the sell day? That one is the one I find most tricky I must say.

Thanks!

[d-day]

long at 1381 DP 5000v ES - no time for pic

[d-day]

long at 1381 DP 5000v ES - no time for pic

here's a quick snap shot - DP with nice gartley pattern. Took some off and stop is breakeven on the rest with 1387 target

[edfash]

3200 tick chart completed 5 waves from yesterday am low. ideally should retrace wave 5.

[d-day]

here's a quick snap shot - DP with nice gartley pattern. Took some off and stop is breakeven on the rest with 1387 target

Out at the market at 1383 - if you look at a 5000v chart we had a bar open at its high, turn red, and start down nary a tick up, we could still hit the target, but I didn't want to give up the last 2 SP points.

[d-day]

That must have been one of them there "DP Continuation Trades" - but I still did well.

[d-day]

3200 tick chart completed 5 waves from yesterday am low. ideally should retrace wave 5.


By "retrace wave 5", Ed, what do you mean? Retrace it in its entirety? And if so, where do you mark the beginning of wave 5 - from the wave 4 low or from where it breaks the wave 5 high?

[d-day]

Alright Dave - understood. That is a very clear way of describing a Sell short day, and I really like it. Too much in this biz that is subjective...

Can I also then ask you objectively and in the same manner - how do you define the sell day? That one is the one I find most tricky I must say.

Thanks!

A sell day is a distribution day where the market ranges between high and low, while longs from the buy day liquidate (take profits). Linda Raschke calls it a Zig Zag Day, rather than a sell day. This is likely because some folks do not grasp the diference between a Sell (to liquidate longs) Day and a Sell Short (initiating new short positions) Day. If you buy Yahoo today, and you sell it tomorrow, you are not short Yahoo, you just sold it and no longer have your position. If the day after you sell out your long osition, you again sell Yahoo, you have now sold it short.

[jjc]

A sell day is a distribution day where the market ranges between high and low, while longs from the buy day liquidate (take profits). Linda Raschke calls it a Zig Zag Day, rather than a sell day. This is likely because some folks do not grasp the diference between a Sell (to liquidate longs) Day and a Sell Short (initiating new short positions) Day. If you buy Yahoo today, and you sell it tomorrow, you are not short Yahoo, you just sold it and no longer have your position. If the day after you sell out your long osition, you again sell Yahoo, you have now sold it short.

DDay - please sign me up for your up and coming market update newsletter and options report


Thanks

j

[d-day]

Here is as easy as I can make it sound:

Yesterday we wanted to own stock, so we bought and are now long stock, and thus yesterday was a Buy Day.

Today we will take our profits on our long stock position, so we will sell the stock we own, making today a Sell Day.

Monday, we will look to be short stock, so we will Monday will be a Sell Short Day.

Again, the cycle is guide only, and at times it will expand and contract and shift. The market is an aggregate of human actions, and since, thankfully, human beings are not determined in our actions but possess free will, it is not possible to possess the degree of certainty we would find most profitable.

[edfash]

wave 5 measurement should begin at the wave 4 low. ideally the market should form an abc pattern that retraces all of wave 5 after a 5 wave sequence completion. i use a .786 retracement of wave 5 as a minimum target. these are powerful patterns that occur all of the time. needless to say the market does not always cooperate, but does with frequency.

[d-day]

wave 5 measurement should begin at the wave 4 low. ideally the market should form an abc pattern that retraces all of wave 5 after a 5 wave sequence completion. i use a .786 retracement of wave 5 as a minimum target. these are powerful patterns that occur all of the time. needless to say the market does not always cooperate, but does with frequency.

Looking at your chart, Ed, you would thus expect the ES to retrace back to 1350 from the 1398 high, and then, assuming a proper pattern, etc., you would anticipate a potential bounce back to approx. 1387.75, correct?


Thank you for your help, I appreciate the contributions you and laurent make to helping us understand real time Elliot wave analysis and application.

[jjc]

dday - i c ur 3min oex has a ts1 now - maybe this is the decline to ur 635? - we shall see


j

[jjc]

dday - i took the manual dp on the 3min oex instead - so far so good

j

[d-day]

dday - i took the manual dp on the 3min oex instead - so far so good

j

I got myself short the YM also on what turned out to be a manual DP on the 3 minute. We had an auto, but it ghosted. Short from 12743.

I also got long a bushel or two of the OEX 640 puts (the 2/15/2008 expiry) - I'll take profits on half if we get to 640 and keep half as a core position in anticipation of a possible short sale day on monday.

Good luck to you!

[jay21]

A sell day is a distribution day where the market ranges between high and low, while longs from the buy day liquidate (take profits). Linda Raschke calls it a Zig Zag Day, rather than a sell day. This is likely because some folks do not grasp the diference between a Sell (to liquidate longs) Day and a Sell Short (initiating new short positions) Day. If you buy Yahoo today, and you sell it tomorrow, you are not short Yahoo, you just sold it and no longer have your position. If the day after you sell out your long osition, you again sell Yahoo, you have now sold it short.

Alright Dave - thanks a lot for this.

[edfash]

w4 low=1361, w5 hi=1397.5
w5 retracements: 50% is yellow, 61.8 is green, 78.6%=cyan

[jjc]

I got myself short the YM also on what turned out to be a manual DP on the 3 minute. We had an auto, but it ghosted. Short from 12743.

I also got long a bushel or two of the OEX 640 puts (the 2/15/2008 expiry) - I'll take profits on half if we get to 640 and keep half as a core position in anticipation of a possible short sale day on monday.

Good luck to you!

gl 2u2

i scaled out at oex 641 - seems they want to push it up a bit there - runners now to 635

j

[d-day]

gl 2u2

i scaled out at oex 641 - seems they want to push it up a bit there - runners now to 635

j

Congrats!

I'm still waiting to see 640 before taking any off. I know I've said it before but it bears repeating - I do best when I trade least. Although I would expect a choppy, rangey day because it is a sell day according to my interpretation of the current trading cycle, we have traded sufficiently high and my little biridie's "Hover Number" is sufficiently lower to warrant my attempt at holding for my targets.

Remember, I'm looking for the OEX to trade to 635 and the SPC to trade to 1366 today. While the market may in fact reverse from here and rally, stop me out, and rally higher into the close, that is, given the work I've done, the least likely scenario. Not an impossible one, and not even an improbable one, but of those possible, it is the least likely.

Also, I may be wrong, but being wrong is not the same as being full of BS.

[d-day]

w4 low=1361, w5 hi=1397.5
w5 retracements: 50% is yellow, 61.8 is green, 78.6%=cyan

Hi Ed,

Thank you very much. I appreciate your help.

Thank you,

David

[d-day]

I have cleaned out my private message box this morning, and I may have inadvertantly deleted messages to which I have not replied. Anyone who has sent me a message recently who did not receive a reply should re-send the message. I check them about once each week.

[edfash]

so far price behaving consistant with a range day, with trade on both sides of the open. the market has been contained by both extremes of the globex range, excellent locations for countertrend trades or DP's as we know and love them. as Linda R teaches this is typical of the morning session following a range expansion trend day. the afternoon session may see a trend develop. this environment is the least likely to see trend continuation setups succeed.

david your posts are excellent and greatly appreciated. thank you.

[jjc]

Also, I may be wrong, but being wrong is not the same as being full of BS.

not even just a tweeny-weeny bit of BS? :)

j

[d-day]

so far price behaving consistant with a range day, with trade on both sides of the open. the market has been contained by both extremes of the globex range, excellent locations for countertrend trades or DP's as we know and love them. as Linda R teaches this is typical of the morning session following a range expansion trend day. the afternoon session may see a trend develop. this environment is the least likely to see trend continuation setups succeed.

I agree. If I were expecting a trend day, here is a pattern that I would expect to develop very soon. As we are to expect more of a choppy day, this pattern is not as likely to come to fruition as it often is.

We have a bear flag on the 3 minute ES, and a measured move and Stevenson Price Time Target that coincide. As I type this, I am watching the 11:45 bar forming, and I would say that for this pattern to work "text book" this bounce needs to end here and now.

I would add that if price gets comfortable above 1388-ish, then a deeper retracement of this morning's decline will be likely before another safe shorting opportunity presents itself.

Of course, I am full of BS, so pay no attention.

[d-day]

not even just a tweeny-weeny bit of BS? :)

j

Well, maybe a little, but its of the fun sort, and not the malicious out for myself trying to take advantage of folks sort.

[d-day]

I would add that if price gets comfortable above 1388-ish, then a deeper retracement of this morning's decline will be likely before another safe shorting opportunity presents itself.

I also would expect the OEX to come back and test 644-45, but a lot of selling came in at 643 so traders seem to be defending that level.

[d-day]

If you draw the little bear channel, you'll see price is still respecting the channel. If I'm not mistaken, in Elliot term's, channels are corrective in nature, so as long as price stays contained in this rising channel I assume that the "trend" is the impulse down, and we are merely correcting that impulse prior to dropping to a test of the low.

I am not sure that I am correct in my Elliot interpretation, so perhaps someone who is sure could chime in and either confirm me or correct me.

[tar001]

that seems to coincide with the 1366 price target your birdie gave you
:D


I agree. If I were expecting a trend day, here is a pattern that I would expect to develop very soon. As we are to expect more of a choppy day, this pattern is not as likely to come to fruition as it often is.

We have a bear flag on the 3 minute ES, and a measured move and Stevenson Price Time Target that coincide. As I type this, I am watching the 11:45 bar forming, and I would say that for this pattern to work "text book" this bounce needs to end here and now.

I would add that if price gets comfortable above 1388-ish, then a deeper retracement of this morning's decline will be likely before another safe shorting opportunity presents itself.

Of course, I am full of BS, so pay no attention.

[d-day]

Bear flag is broken, but there are no guarantees that the this pattern is playing out as it took a bit longer to break than it ideally should have. Note how price moved beyond the MM and SPTT trendlines prior to the breakdown. It does not mean that price will not reach its objective. It is more probable that it does than that it doesn't, but it is not as probable as it would be had price broke along or within the trendlines.

[jjc]

Bear flag is broken, but there are no guarantees that the this pattern is playing out as it took a bit longer to break than it ideally should have. Note how price moved beyond the MM and SPTT trendlines prior to the breakdown. It does not mean that price will not reach its objective. It is more probable that it does than that it doesn't, but it is not as probable as it would be had price broke along or within the trendlines.


ok dave, beers are on me if we hit your oex 635 (virtual beers)

j

[d-day]

This little down leg is, thus far, hardly impulsive, and we could very well be in a B down of an ABC correction, waiting for C up to test the A high at 1388.75 or even trade up into the DP that you can project off of that high.

And we may just creep lower and lower.

I still am of the opinion that we see the Cash SPC trade down to 1366 before the closing bell, but (and I'm not BS'ing you) my opinions are not always correct; and that is what my stop loss if for.

[d-day]

but (and I'm not BS'ing you) my opinions are not always correct; and that is what my stop loss if for.

And having said that, I don't want to hear any of you say that my posts dissuaded you from taking the TS3 buy on the ER2 3 minute that jsut popped up.

I will trade it myself if this bar closes with a blue reversal bar and if I am stopped in within 2 bars of the signal.

I'm still short the YM and long OEX puts (short the OEX)

[d-day]

TS3 buy on the ER2 3 minute that jsut popped up.
I will trade it myself if this bar closes with a blue reversal bar and if I am stopped in within 2 bars of the signal.

I won't be trading it as it no longer is a valid signal and has disappeared from my screen.

[Eddo]

Looks to me like they are all possibly making a wave C with the NQ looking like it might hit the reverse first

[d-day]

This little down leg is, thus far, hardly impulsive, and we could very well be in a B down of an ABC correction, waiting for C up to test the A high at 1388.75 or even trade up into the DP that you can project off of that high.


TS3 sell sig on the NQ and here's what I am looking at on the 3 minute ES

[Larry22]

This little down leg is, thus far, hardly impulsive, and we could very well be in a B down of an ABC correction, waiting for C up to test the A high at 1388.75 or even trade up into the DP that you can project off of that high.

And we may just creep lower and lower.



Yup you have good eyes my friend that is what I'm expecting. ;)

But again only the market decides where it wants to go.

So we'll wait and see.

Laurent

[Eddo]

TS3 sell sig on the NQ and here's what I am looking at on the 3 minute ES

Yup - but for me I would prefer the NQ up just a tad higher for a decent looking TS3 - its almost there as I type

[Eddo]

Yup - but for me I would prefer the NQ up just a tad higher for a decent looking TS3 - its almost there as I type

Ok - now we need the Red reversal bar and its down we go I hope

[Larry22]

TS3 sell sig on the NQ and here's what I am looking at on the 3 minute ES

Wow I can't C ????? :D

[d-day]

But again only the market decides where it wants to go.

Yupsir, and here is a more bullish alternative.

[Larry22]

Well if trade there is it will have to be without me as I have to go to the grocery store while I can go out.

They are calling a big snowstorm and it has started supposed to last until tomorrow. :eek:

[d-day]

Wow I can't C ????? :D



Sorry bout that - basically some C-wave targets I had in mind

[jjc]

im looking at this as a possibility on a 3min es but i dont want it to happen cuz im short

j

[d-day]

Ok - now we need the Red reversal bar and its down we go I hope

Looks like the TS3 on the NQ dinged us out, but a new sig is on the chart, but this new one needs a red reversal bar as well.

[Eddo]

Looks like the TS3 on the NQ dinged us out, but a new sig is on the chart, but this new one needs a red reversal bar as well.

I think your right - I have my stop a little highter and am still in but its looking like Iam going to be 'dinged' out as well - but I still like the look of the downward story

[Eddo]

I think your right - I have my stop a little highter and am still in but its looking like Iam going to be 'dinged' out as well - but I still like the look of the downward story

Ding ! :( but happy to have another go at the Typ Wpt if we get the reddy :)

[d-day]

Ding ! :( but happy to have another go at the Typ Wpt if we get the reddy :)

We now have as purdy as a TS3 on the NQ as you could want to see.

[TreeShaker]

Don't see anyone in it, but I grabbed YM 2min DP at 1250hrs. Doing nicely.:D

[Eddo]

Ding ! :( but happy to have another go at the Typ Wpt if we get the reddy :)

Cor - back in again :)

[Eddo]

We now have as purdy as a TS3 on the NQ as you could want to see.

Yup - doesn't it get you when you get stopped out at the very point of the turn - but never mind staight back in on next bar and now I have a Scotch and watch it dive to 1827 - :)

[d-day]

Cor - back in again :)

In my opinion, this is a "must take" trade for me as an MTPtrader. Even if the market stops us out, this is as perfect an ABC sell set-up as you're ever going to see - look at the symmetry. Even if we lose on this one, it is a chance to enter at a probable reversal point with a smal controlled risk.

And the first WPT conicides with filling the gap back to yesterday's close - amazing how often these markets are pushed around so that fib numbers will coincide with structural support/resistance.

I'd rather be in this and lose than sit out and watch it win. I did place my stop a bit higher to allow for another push higher to give a perfect A=C.

[Eddo]

In my opinion, this is a "must take" trade for me as an MTPtrader. Even if the market stops us out, this is as perfect an ABC sell set-up as you're ever going to see - look at the symmetry. Even if we lose on this one, it is a chance to enter at a probable reversal point with a smal controlled risk.

And the first WPT conicides with filling the gap back to yesterday's close - amazing how often these markets are pushed around so that fib numbers will coincide with structural support/resistance.

I'd rather be in this and lose than sit out and watch it win.

Yes I agree and as you know I just about only trade the MTP setup so yes this is a must take trade -

[Eddo]

Yes I agree and as you know I just about only trade the MTP setup so yes this is a must take trade -

OK David - now is the time we have to 'keep the faith' - but is a ding coming along?

[d-day]

I did place my stop a bit higher to allow for another push higher to give a perfect A=C.

I apologize - it looks as though we did get a perfect A=C already. I goofed on me math by a few ticks. But no matter, it looks like everyone is waiting for the ES to hit that DP before anything happens, up or down.

[jjc]

methinks 1390.75 gets touched before they push it down


j

[Eddo]

I apologize - it looks as though we did get a perfect A=C already. I goofed on me math by a few ticks. But no matter, it looks like everyone is waiting for the ES to hit that DP before anything happens, up or down.

Nothing to apologise for - we are still in the NQ (just) and for me the ES should be ready to turn at its DP so for me we at the moment of truth on this one - the only thing making me slightly nervous was the Trin which was pointing me away from this one - but the STF was black so that was good enough with that lovely looking ABC pattern

[jjc]

methinks 1390.75 gets touched before they push it down


j

hope im wrong cuz that wud stop me out

[d-day]

OK David - now is the time we have to 'keep the faith' - but is a ding coming along?

This is as bearish a short term pattern I've seen - across the board. Any of you who know how to compute Gartley's will see them across the board (most clearly on the 5 minute time frame).

If we don't drop soon, I'll cover all my shorts above the market.

[Eddo]

Nothing to apologise for - we are still in the NQ (just) and for me the ES should be ready to turn at its DP so for me we at the moment of truth on this one - the only thing making me slightly nervous was the Trin which was pointing me away from this one - but the STF was black so that was good enough with that lovely looking ABC pattern

Plus its just turned 14:00 Eastern so they should all be getting back from lunch and about to hit their sell buttons :)

[d-day]

Plus its just turned 14:00 Eastern so they should all be getting back from lunch and about to hit their sell buttons :)

I wish someone would sell 10k ES contracts at the market

[jjc]

This is as bearish a short term pattern I've seen - across the board. Any of you who know how to compute Gartley's will see them across the board (most clearly on the 5 minute time frame).

If we don't drop soon, I'll cover all my shorts above the market.

ther still protecting that oex 645/644 you mentioned earlier

hope they dont turn to buyers


j

[d-day]

ther still protecting that oex 645/644 you mentioned earlier

hope they dont turn to buyers


j


Well that pesky NQ has a bullish Gartley on it now. That's not comforting.

I'm starting to feel like a trapped seller. I'm taking some profits right now and I'll ride with 1/2 of my positions intact.

[jjc]

Well that pesky NQ has a bullish Gartley on it now. That's not comforting.

I'm starting to feel like a trapped seller. I'm taking some profits right now and I'll ride with 1/2 of my positions intact.


i have only a few left myself

gl 2u

j

[d-day]

As Ed reminded us earlier, since this is a "sell" or zig zag" day, trending, trend continuation patterns, etc. are not as reliable as they would otherwise be. So protect your profits and check your stops.

[tar001]

looks like they are all hitting the buy buttons





Plus its just turned 14:00 Eastern so they should all be getting back from lunch and about to hit their sell buttons :)

[d-day]

"Hey, you, SPX ... You got a package waitin' fer ya at 1366. Now git on over there and git it!"

[Eddo]

"Hey, you, SPX ... You got a package waitin' fer ya at 1366. Now git on over there and git it!"

Exited but still waiting for the you know what

[Eddo]

Exited but still waiting for the you know what

One more go for me on the NQ then I call it a day and lick my wounds - 1.5R down so far with one last attempt at this DP I hope

[edfash]

i took that trade as well (and stopped out), but what about the stf? it was black at the time of entry, but has not been indicative of a downtrend all day. since there has not been a downtrend, how can the pattern be corrective? would this be a filter to avoid the trade?
although not an MTP filter, internals have been trending in a bullish fashion all day.

[tar001]

Of course its bullish, its open :D sure doesn't seem like a bear market to me(even though technically we are supposed to be in one)


i took that trade as well (and stopped out), but what about the stf? it was black at the time of entry, but has not been indicative of a downtrend all day. since there has not been a downtrend, how can the pattern be corrective? would this be a filter to avoid the trade?
although not an MTP filter, internals have been trending in a bullish fashion all day.

[Eddo]

i took that trade as well (and stopped out), but what about the stf? it was black at the time of entry, but has not been indicative of a downtrend all day. since there has not been a downtrend, how can the pattern be corrective? would this be a filter to avoid the trade?
although not an MTP filter, internals have been trending in a bullish fashion all day.

For me as long as the STF is black or red its OK for a short - my one concern taking this one was the Trin (which I do know most MTP traders don't seem to rate) - its kept me 'clean' for years and I don't usually like trading against it (which I did tonight) - but the ABC looked so nice I had to take it - but once again - it was an OK trade with the STF at Black

Chris

[Eddo]

One more go for me on the NQ then I call it a day and lick my wounds - 1.5R down so far with one last attempt at this DP I hope

Well thank the Lord the DP failed and we didn't get put in again :)

[tar001]

can you get the TRIN on Ninja charts? I don't see it?
looks like we rally into the close? can't have a down day in the Bernanke/Paulson era now can we

For me as long as the STF is black or red its OK for a short - my one concern taking this one was the Trin (which I do know most MTP traders don't seem to rate) - its kept me 'clean' for years and I don't usually like trading against it (which I did tonight) - but the ABC looked so nice I had to take it - but once again - it was an OK trade with the STF at Black

Chris

[RicoTrader]

New guy here, but I have been lurking and just started trading live 2 weeks ago. I was able to get the TRIN on my Ninja charts by connecting to my connection to Open Tick conenction. You have to be able to get NYSE data to get the TRIN. I pay about 15 dollars a month for Open Tick, but I think that the data is delayed.

Hope that helps.

[jjc]

For me as long as the STF is black or red its OK for a short - my one concern taking this one was the Trin (which I do know most MTP traders don't seem to rate) - its kept me 'clean' for years and I don't usually like trading against it (which I did tonight) - but the ABC looked so nice I had to take it - but once again - it was an OK trade with the STF at Black

Chris


wasnt that positive divergence on the stf when you were shorting?

i dunno know , im asking

j

[d-day]

Well, I am not the elliot wave guy, but as I've been watching price unfold, I seem to see the pattern on the chart unfolding.

Momentum, however, is not confirming my C wave internal wave count so one cannot rule out a higher high.

[Eddo]

wasnt that positive divergence on the stf when you were shorting?

i dunno know , im asking

j

on a TS setup divergence is not an issue - just the colour of the STF and the pattern -

[tar001]

I took that short on the NQ based on this, of course nothing like trying to short a freight train
if thats not divergence I don't know what is and this is why I hate daytrading
you are wrong WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY more than you are right

[d-day]

i took that trade as well (and stopped out), but what about the stf? it was black at the time of entry, but has not been indicative of a downtrend all day. since there has not been a downtrend, how can the pattern be corrective? would this be a filter to avoid the trade?
although not an MTP filter, internals have been trending in a bullish fashion all day.

Hi Ed,

Well, I was quite clear that that was a must take trade for me, not necessarily you lol! I do not pay as much attention to the internals as I might (j is forever telling me that I should give them more heed than I do). That was a good pattern that I have traded successfully many times in the past without ever flashing a look at the color of STF. That's just me.

Sorry if I misled you in anyway.

Thank you,

David

[Eddo]

can you get the TRIN on Ninja charts? I don't see it?
looks like we rally into the close? can't have a down day in the Bernanke/Paulson era now can we

Hey Tar

Have a word with Steve G - he has an efs for the Trin on eSignal which I use - I don't use Ninja (hate it) sorry

Chris

[tar001]

where do you find TRIN in the Ninja indicators? I do not see it there? I am sure I get the data as I am using esignal



New guy here, but I have been lurking and just started trading live 2 weeks ago. I was able to get the TRIN on my Ninja charts by connecting to my connection to Open Tick conenction. You have to be able to get NYSE data to get the TRIN. I pay about 15 dollars a month for Open Tick, but I think that the data is delayed.

Hope that helps.

[TreeShaker]

"Hey, you, SPX ... You got a package waitin' fer ya at 1366. Now git on over there and git it!"

Does that work??? I've just yelling at my screen, I never thought about writing it. LOL

[jjc]

short on the es

[tar001]

Thanks
I am not using esignal charts I am using Ninja charts with esignal data, does he have a file for that?
:D


Hey Tar

Have a word with Steve G - he has an efs for the Trin on eSignal which I use - I don't use Ninja (hate it) sorry

Chris

[Eddo]

Thanks
I am not using esignal charts I am using Ninja charts with esignal data, does he have a file for that?
:D

I don't know but as I said give Steve an email at support and if he does I know you will get it fast

[Biggo]

where do you find TRIN in the Ninja indicators? I do not see it there? I am sure I get the data as I am using esignal

Het Tar

Trin is not an indicator as such You have to open a new chart for trin. NT could not overlay it on another chart as esingnal does when I asked 6 months ago, things may have changed now though.
Open a new chart & trin in in the INDEXs section

Phil:)

[TAS]

Hi Dave,

IF we do get a higher high and close near HOD, how should we name the day in TTT terms? :)

Thank you for explanation.

TAS

Well, I am not the elliot wave guy, but as I've been watching price unfold, I seem to see the pattern on the chart unfolding.

Momentum, however, is not confirming my C wave internal wave count so one cannot rule out a higher high.

[d-day]

short on the es


ditto

ditto

[Eddo]

I don't know but as I said give Steve an email at support and if he does I know you will get it fast

This is what it looks like on eSignal -

[edfash]

i was just asking. i felt the trade satisfied my rules, so i executed the trade as i continually beat into my head that i must take all trades that satisfy the rules. unfortunately i had something less than confidence. i was asking about the stf to learn from those more experienced with the MTP methodology than I.
this is a 15 min bar chart of the $VOLD ($UVol-$DVol). the yellow arrow is the day's start. when this indicator trends it is very powerful (a user also mentioned the trin and the intraday vix has been trending lower all day)

[tar001]

okay I was wondering, that makes sense
thanks much



QUOTE=Biggo;13899]Het Tar

Trin is not an indicator as such You have to open a new chart for trin. NT could not overlay it on another chart as esingnal does when I asked 6 months ago, things may have changed now though.
Open a new chart & trin in in the INDEXs section

Phil:)[/QUOTE]

[Eddo]

ditto

ditto

Ok David and j - here we go for a nice little 45 min ride south (I hope)

[Eddo]

Ok David and j - here we go for a nice little 45 min ride south (I hope)

............ and my Trin is starting to head North .......... ya hoooo I think :confused:

[Eddo]

............ and my Trin is starting to head North .......... ya hoooo I think :confused:

its looking like time to crawl back under my rock -

[TAS]

Hi Biggo,

I just open a chart in NINJA for TRIN, while I apply "line on close" , TRIN turns to be GREEN all the way through, could you please show me how to make TRIN colourful and informative as you show us in E-signal example?

Thanks a lot.

TAS


Het Tar

Trin is not an indicator as such You have to open a new chart for trin. NT could not overlay it on another chart as esingnal does when I asked 6 months ago, things may have changed now though.
Open a new chart & trin in in the INDEXs section

Phil:)

[d-day]

Ok David and j - here we go for a nice little 45 min ride south (I hope)


The only thing headed south right now is my equity :(

[tar001]

I am going to go long and short at the same time and that way I can't be wrong, market closes at the HOD IMO
I guess I should throw a BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYA in there somewhere
hahaha

[jojab]

This is what it looks like on eSignal -

Quick question, if you don't mind, what are the value points for bullish, neutral and bearish?

I am using 1.20 or above - bearish
.80 or below bullish
Between the two, neutral

[jjc]

Ok David and j - here we go for a nice little 45 min ride south (I hope)

i tried a short but it didnt work - im done and taking my loot with me

what is that dave, 3/1? - although it didnt hit the numbers we still made out like bandits, huh

j

[jjc]

Quick question, if you don't mind, what are the value points for bullish, neutral and bearish?

I am using 1.20 or above - bearish
.80 or below bullish
Between the two, neutral

ive always known it to be

mega bullish - .60 or lower

bullish - .60 to .80

neutral - .80 to 1.0

bearish - 1.0 to 1.3

bear ugly - 1.3 or higher

and when it gets to those extemes of mega bullish and bear ugly expect a reversal

j

[Biggo]

Hi Biggo,

I just open a chart in NINJA for TRIN, while I apply "line on close" , TRIN turns to be GREEN all the way through, could you please show me how to make TRIN colourful and informative as you show us in E-signal example?

Thanks a lot.

TAS

Hi TAS

I dont think you will be able to get it to be the same as the esignal version as the EFTs for esignal have been programmed by Steve, using his own MTP secret sauce ;)
Trin does seem to have gone out of "fashion" with most MTP users lately anyway.

Cheers

Phil :)

[Eddo]

The only thing headed south right now is my equity :(

Yes - but think of yesterday and knowing I am only right 40% of the time today could have been expected I guess - still -1.5R is more than acceptable in my view

[Eddo]

Quick question, if you don't mind, what are the value points for bullish, neutral and bearish?

I am using 1.20 or above - bearish
.80 or below bullish
Between the two, neutral

The values

Above 1 is bearish and below 1 bullish - in Steve's eSignal verision (the one I have on the chart I posted) he also colour codes them - blue bullish, red bearish, black - thinking!

[d-day]

what is that dave, 3/1? - although it didnt hit the numbers we still made out like bandits, huhj

3/4 if they close the market right now, but we still have 15 minutes left, so who, as Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over til its over."

Or, as Yogi Bear said, "Hey Boo boo ... where'd you go with that picnic basket?"

[Eddo]

The values

Above 1 is bearish and below 1 bullish - in Steve's eSignal verision (the one I have on the chart I posted) he also colour codes them - blue bullish, red bearish, black - thinking!

BTW - its now mega bullish at 20:44

[tar001]

The Russell up 20 points today and all we did was try to short it all the way up?
never a seller in sight these days:confused:

[jojab]

BTW - its now mega bullish at 20:44

I just did one of those "reverse" DP's to get long on the one min. chart on the ER for a quick profit.

Thanks for the idea yesterday, David.

[Eddo]

The Russell up 20 points today and all we did was try to short it all the way up?
never a seller in sight these days:confused:

Yup - but to be honest I can't remember any Long sigs today so we all played our game as we should have in my view :)

[d-day]

The Russell up 20 points today and all we did was try to short it all the way up? never a seller in sight these days:confused:

Yes, but the entire day has basically traded within the range of the first hour. I expected a range day, but the quick reversal down this morning, and the choppy, overlapping waves all the way back up surely look corrective and thus it was, in my opinion, not misguided to try to play the short side.


Yup - but to be honest I can't remember any Long sigs today so we all played our game as we should have in my view :)

I agree completely.

[jojab]

The values

Above 1 is bearish and below 1 bullish - in Steve's eSignal verision (the one I have on the chart I posted) he also colour codes them - blue bullish, red bearish, black - thinking!

Yes, that is what I was asking. Sorry for not being more specific. Do you happen to know what values that they change colors at in Steve's coding? I don't have eSignal.

[Eddo]

[QUOTE=tar001;13919]The Russell up 20 points today and all we did was try to short it all the way up? never a seller in sight these days:confused:
/QUOTE]

Yes, but the entire day has basically traded within the range of the first hour. I expected a range day, but the quick reversal down this morning, and the choppy, overlapping waves all the way back up surely look corrective and thus it was, in my opinion, not misguided to try to play the short side.




I agree completely.

Just one other point - some of you might have seen the Figs I posted about a year or so ago from my MSA data and you will know my 'hit' rate is about 40% with 60% being loss or b/even - so for me every trade has a 40% expectancy of winning and I therefore expect to get a fair few 1R losing trades - thats (in my view) how this business works

[jojab]

ive always known it to be

mega bullish - .60 or lower

bullish - .60 to .80

neutral - .80 to 1.0

bearish - 1.0 to 1.3

bear ugly - 1.3 or higher

and when it gets to those extemes of mega bullish and bear ugly expect a reversal

j

Thank you for posting this.

[RicoTrader]

where do you find TRIN in the Ninja indicators? I do not see it there? I am sure I get the data as I am using esignal

It is not an indicator, it is a symbol. But you have to be able to get stock data.

[Angel]

Hello all,

Please note below George Angell's definition that he gives in his LSS-Introduction to 3-Day Cycle Method for a SELL DAY :

A sell day, or "S" day, when the market would trade at or near the previous day's high, providing the opportunity to sell at a profit the prior day's long positions.

I hope this can help

Have a good week end

Best regards

Angel

[d-day]

A sell day, or "S" day, when the market would trade at or near the previous day's high, providing the opportunity to sell at a profit the prior day's long positions.

Right, but the market today met that requirment within the first half hour. Both Angell and Taylor also caution that after that requirement is met (assuming it is at all), all bets were off as to where trade would go after that - it could end higher, it could end lower. And some sell days are sell days but trade entirely below the previous day's range. In other words, some sell days fail to trade at or near the previous day's high at all.

Have a great weekend,

d-day

[Angel]

Hello D-Day and all,

In the "street smarts" at page 51, Linda Raschke speaks about a momentum pinball method which will automatically telling you if we should be buying or shorting the next day. She says exactly that for a short-term (one -to two day) flips, it can't be beat !! In fact, this strategy has turned into one of her most consistent trading patterns !!

Thanks

Have a good week end all

Angel

[tar001]

Is this a Tradestation chart? or did you turn your charts black? they are easier to see like this. Do you use Tradestation data in Ninja?


here's a quick snap shot - DP with nice gartley pattern. Took some off and stop is breakeven on the rest with 1387 target

[tar001]

as you can see on this chart we are at a DP and have a TS sell setup with divergence. It has you shorting 4 lots with a stop at 1854.50, has anyone ever taken a trade like this and put 8 lots as your stop so when you get stopped out you are actually long 4 lots? at that point it is a failed DP and would(or should) qualify as a DP continuation trade. I actually thought about doing that yesterday as I felt the market would rally into the close

[tar001]

I was really looking for this DP on Friday but it was not there on a 3 minute chart, on a 2 minute chart it is? damn!! I would have DEFINITELY gone long there

[tar001]

So what are your thoughts here? we seem to be probing around that area that you thought we could bounce to? do you think this is just a bear market bounce?
:confused:



Hi Tom,

Here is the updated chart that I mentioned yesterday.

Rama.

[tar001]

did Steve abandon us here at the MTP forum? :D when are those new files going to be released?

[rrs]

So what are your thoughts here? we seem to be probing around that area that you thought we could bounce to? do you think this is just a bear market bounce?
:confused:

Hi Tom,

There is no doubt, at least in my mind, the market is in a confirmed bear trend, as indicated by its relationship to the 30 week MA. As I mentioned earlier, there will be lot of bounces, whipsaws and violent bear market rallies, no doubt.

I will post the updated chart of S&P 500 soon.

Good Luck.

Rama.

[rrs]

Hi Tom,

There is no doubt, at least in my mind, the market is in a confirmed bear trend, as indicated by its relationship to the 30 week MA. As I mentioned earlier, there will be lot of bounces, whipsaws and violent bear market rallies, no doubt.

I will post the updated chart of S&P 500 soon.

Good Luck.

Rama.

Hi Tom,

I am attaching the S&P 500 weekly chart to this message. Please watch carefully the area highlighted in yellow. The price action and the volume that goes with it will tell you a lot about the probable course of the market in months to come. The yellow area shows you two important landmarks:

1) a falling 30 week MA

2) a newly drawn trend line with a down slope (dotted line in green).

As an area of resistance, this is where the resolve of the buyers (bulls) of this market will be tested. How high a price are the buyers willing to pay for this market? Are the current and, most importantly, going forward the future macroeconomic trends support / justify paying a higher price for the stocks? Ultimately, these are the critical questions that I try to find answers for before I initiate my end of day swing and trend trades. Needless to say, I find the tools incorporated in MTP -- WPT module and DPs -- of immense help in fine tuning and executing my trading decisions. Having lived through several violent market "corrections" -- (I still have my trading statements from October 1987 that show the purchases I made on that fateful Monday and the profits they generated few years later!) -- I learned the hard way never to deviate from my system of Measurement -- Analysis -- Decision -- Execution. This, of course, is based on a foundation of Risk Control and Postion Sizing.


Good Luck.

Rama.

PS I found that understanding the logic that forms the foundations of price pivots and the trend lines that are drawn using these building blocks (i.e. price pivots) very useful in a practical way. In my view, it is a skill that is worth developing and it complements nicely the built-in tools of MTP. Since the resources that help you to develop this skill in a rigourous way are at other sites and are not related to MTP, I will avoid posting them in the forum here in order to comply with Steve's previously expressed wishes. If you are interested, let me know. I will email them to you.

[tar001]

LOGIC? theres logic behind all this stuff? hahah! I would love to read it, if you could email it to me that would be great!! thanks much for all your effort, hopefully someday some of it will sink in? :confused:
hardest thing I have ever tried to do
:D



QUOTE=rrs;13944]Hi Tom,

I am attaching the S&P 500 weekly chart to this message. Please watch carefully the area highlighted in yellow. The price action and the volume that goes with it will tell you a lot about the probable course of the market in months to come. The yellow area shows you two important landmarks:

1) a falling 30 week MA

2) a newly drawn trend line with a down slope (dotted line in green).

As an area of resistance, this is where the resolve of the buyers (bulls) of this market will be tested. How high a price are the buyers willing to pay for this market? Are the current and, most importantly, going forward the future macroeconomic trends support / justify paying a higher price for the stocks? Ultimately, these are the critical questions that I try to find answers for before I initiate my end of day swing and trend trades. Needless to say, I find the tools incorporated in MTP -- WPT module and DPs -- of immense help in fine tuning and executing my trading decisions. Having lived through several violent market "corrections" -- (I still have my trading statements from October 1987 that show the purchases I made on that fateful Monday and the profits they generated few years later!) -- I learned the hard way never to deviate from my system of Measurement -- Analysis -- Decision -- Execution. This, of course, is based on a foundation of Risk Control and Postion Sizing.


Good Luck.

Rama.

PS I found that understanding the logic that forms the foundations of price pivots and the trend lines that are drawn using these building blocks (i.e. price pivots) very useful in a practical way. In my view, it is a skill that is worth developing and it complements nicely the built-in tools of MTP. Since the resources that help you to develop this skill in a rigourous way are at other sites and are not related to MTP, I will avoid posting them in the forum here in order to comply with Steve's previously expressed wishes. If you are interested, let me know. I will email them to you.[/QUOTE]

[rrs]

Hi Tom,

I have emailed them to you.

Even though the markets are driven by strong emotions, the outcome of those emotions ultimately express themselves in the numbers we all follow. As Mr. Goslin, one of the most successful traders, said trading is a numbers game. Swings in the level and intensity of the market emotions drive these numbers. At a minimum, these numbers offer us a window through which we can peer into the collective psyche of the market and take appropriate trading decisions. Measuring something as subjective as emotions with numerical methods that are concrete and consistent is not new. It has a long, chequered and interesting statistical history behind it.

Rama.

[Larry22]

Interesting, I don't follow too much the S&P, I think everyone knows that I follow the Russell, nevertheless I took some time to analyse the SPX weekly charts.

Let's see what I came up on a possible wave count.

First weekly charts we can see that we have reached a 38% retracement from octobre 2002 low the reason of that sudden rally and we had also reached the 262 % projection of wave 3 of the possible wave 3 C . So from what I see on the second weekly chart, we have a 5 wave decline for the first 1A wave and have made 3 waves down and are probably in a wave 4 of the wave 3C, so technically we should be heading down for the completion of wave 5 of the 3C once wave 4 is over.

I'm sure someone will ask when wave 4 should finish, we seems to have a 5 wave up pattern for now on a daily chart, so I expect the wave 4 to finish when we will have a corrective pattern ( probably 7 waves) and reached a possible retracement

Of course everything here is a possibility but the probabilities are strong for a completion of a 5th wave of the wave 3C.

Time and daily waves should tell us.

Laurent

[jjc]

Go Perfectionatriots

[Larry22]

To help clarify my weekly count see the daily chart below.

The only thing missing for the completion of the 4th wave is a 7 wave up pattern.

For the moment we only seem to have 5 waves up.

[Larry22]

Go Perfectionatriots

Aren't these missiles that they use during wars. :D

[d-day]

Little Birdie says SPX closes (or rather, Hovers) at 1418. Taylor Trading Cycle has tomorrow as a sell short day. This is the first time little birdie and the trading cycle seem to be in a bit of tension with one another.

We shall see.

[TreeShaker]

Go Perfectionatriots

Maybe you should have been more specific in where they were to go. ;)

[rrs]

To help clarify my weekly count see the daily chart below.

The only thing missing for the completion of the 4th wave is a 7 wave up pattern.

For the moment we only seem to have 5 waves up.

Hi Larry,

Thanks for posting your wave counts. Let us wait and see what happens.

Rama.

[d-day]

Go Perfectionatriots


Well, last night I was rooting for Eli, and now I can shake it off and go back to being a self-respecting Eagles fan.

[d-day]

Did anyone else just see an auto DP long on the 3 minute ES go "Poof" the second after getting stopped into a long position? That is, after the bar closed with the "DP" on the chart?

[Eddo]

Did anyone else just see an auto DP long on the 3 minute ES go "Poof" the second after getting stopped into a long position? That is, after the bar closed with the "DP" on the chart?

Yes I did and on the YM 3 min as well - really frustation - the build up, the blue reverse bar, the divergence ....... the new bar and poof - its gone !!

[Eddo]

Yes I did and on the YM 3 min as well - really frustation - the build up, the blue reverse bar, the divergence ....... the new bar and poof - its gone !!

So ....... with the setup doing its disapearing trick, are we in a valid MTP trade or not :confused:

[Eddo]

So ....... with the setup doing its disapearing trick, are we in a valid MTP trade or not :confused:

Lost into cyberspace ?

[Sanjay]

Did anyone else just see an auto DP long on the 3 minute ES go "Poof" the second after getting stopped into a long position? That is, after the bar closed with the "DP" on the chart?

hmm..didn't get one on my TS..I did get a DP auto long on the ES 10000v which I am running with a very tight stop.

[d-day]

So ....... with the setup doing its disapearing trick, are we in a valid MTP trade or not :confused:



I imagine not, as I believe the reason that the set-up "Poofed" is due to an unfavorable risk/reward ratio. I had been short, and I am now bias short below 1389. I'm looking to take some profits on most longs, and possibly reverse to short again near the DP profit target of 1389.50. But I'll have to see the lay of the land if and when we get there.

[Eddo]

I imagine not, as I believe the reason that the set-up "Poofed" is due to an unfavorable risk/reward ratio. I had been short, and I am now bias short below 1389. I'm looking to take some profits on most longs, and possibly reverse to short again near the DP profit target of 1389.50. But I'll have to see the lay of the land if and when we get there.

ah - I didn't realise a less than 2:1 automatically took the trade out -thats fair enough. I'am in long however but my stop is now b/e (too soon I know!) but at least its a freebie which I guess I should not have actually been in

[TAS]

Hi Eddo and Dave,

Me thinks the LOGIC behind such trick is the DP target is less than 2:1 potential...

TAS

So ....... with the setup doing its disapearing trick, are we in a valid MTP trade or not :confused:

[Eddo]

ah - I didn't realise a less than 2:1 automatically took the trade out -thats fair enough. I'am in long however but my stop is now b/e (too soon I know!) but at least its a freebie which I guess I should not have actually been in

just as an adendum to the above, if we can get up through this DP it looks like a nice potential move up to fill the gap (I hope)

[d-day]

I'm looking to take some profits on most longs, and possibly reverse to short again near the DP profit target of 1389.50. But I'll have to see the lay of the land if and when we get there.

Although we have a very nice jjcDragon on the 3 minute ES - we may hit little birdie's 1418 SPX if this itty bity dragon blows fire and not just smoke.

[Eddo]

Although we have a very nice jjcDragon on the 3 minute ES - we may hit little birdie's 1418 SPX if this itty bity dragon blows fire and not just smoke.

blimey - dragon's and birdies - this is all sounding very interesting :)

[G Fryer]

hmm..didn't get one on my TS..I did get a DP auto long on the ES 10000v which I am running with a very tight stop.

I don't get about a third of the signals everyone else gets.. on Tradestation. It seems its the data... so I run a bunch of other charts -- volume & tick, to try to find the same setups.

Gillian

[Eddo]

just as an adendum to the above, if we can get up through this DP it looks like a nice potential move up to fill the gap (I hope)

.......... as the midwife once said to my wife ..... NOW PUSH ......

[edfash]

my YM signal hung on, but the r:r is just 2.0. the calculation of less than 2.0 was probably the reason for the dissappearing act on some platforms.

[Eddo]

.......... as the midwife once said to my wife ..... NOW PUSH ......

.......... I can see its head now :) keep pushing !!!

[jjc]

.......... I can see its head now :) keep pushing !!!

this is resist, 1389 - (SenkouB and dp from the back)

needs to clear 91 (SenkouA for it to roar its head)

but we dont talk about dragons here :)

j

[Eddo]

this is resist, 1389 - (SenkouB and dp from the back)

needs to clear 91 (SenkouA for it to roar its head)

but we dont talk about dragons here :)

j

Yup - don't want to talk too soon but I have a pos feeling about this - my Trin is telling me something else however so we have a real punch up going on right now I think

[d-day]

this is resist, 1389 - (SenkouB and dp from the back)

needs to clear 91 (SenkouA for it to roar its head)

but we dont talk about dragons here :)

j

I'm short again at 1390.50 on a sell limit at the then 50 SMA level basis 5 minute ES. Stop is 1392.50

[d-day]

Yup - don't want to talk too soon but I have a pos feeling about this - my Trin is telling me something else however so we have a real punch up going on right now I think



Not quite sure I follow you, Eddo. Would you mind defining "punch up" for this dumb yankee?

[Eddo]

Not quite sure I follow you, Eddo. Would you mind defining "punch up" for this dumb yankee?

'punch up' - anglo saxon for a good old fight - in this case the bulls and bears are about evens at this point with the outcome still unclear -

[d-day]

'punch up' - anglo saxon for a good old fight - in this case the bulls and bears are about evens at this point with the outcome still unclear -



Gracias, mi amigo.

If the bears are going to take this one from the bulls, then they need to convincvingly break southward out of what what looks to me to be a rising bearish wedge.

I would add that such wedges are merely bearish, and not a Bear Wedge until it is broken to the downside, and convincingly at that.

[jjc]

me thinks if we keep traveling up on a 45degree angle from that dp and lod at 9:36cst on the es the trend bias is up - that angle (support) is getting tested now

[Eddo]

Gracias, mi amigo.

If the bears are going to take this one from the bulls, then they need to convincvingly break southward out of what what looks to me to be a rising bearish wedge.

I would add that such wedges are merely bearish, and not a Bear Wedge until it is broken to the downside, and convincingly at that.

My eye wandered to my trin and I'am now out - but that the electricity and waters bills paid for another month :)

[d-day]

I would add that such wedges are merely bearish, and not a Bear Wedge until it is broken to the downside, and convincingly at that.


I would have liked to have seen a good bit more volume on the drop below the lower trendline of this wedge. Price should come up and test it on the underside and if price moves up through it, then I'll cover me shorts.

[d-day]

me thinks if we keep traveling up on a 45degree angle from that dp and lod at 9:36cst on the es the trend bias is up - that angle (support) is getting tested now

So you think we've struck the LOD and that it will stand as such, j?

[Eddo]

me thinks if we keep traveling up on a 45degree angle from that dp and lod at 9:36cst on the es the trend bias is up - that angle (support) is getting tested now

Good luck with it J - I felt pos on it as well but that horrid looking short Trin made me do the 'Chicken thing' and I bailed with 1.5R in the old skyrocket (anglo saxon for pocket David)

[d-day]

The bears couldn't push her higher, and the bears are now having their turn at the rising trendline off the LOD. If we do go down to test the LOD and we succeed in taking it out, then my target for later today or first thing tomorrow would be a retest of the 2/1 low at 1376.50. If this up trendline holds? Who knows? 1418?

[jjc]

So you think we've struck the LOD and that it will stand as such, j?


well, we'r still trading inside friday's range and the morn is about over - no big news for today so it seems it will be time to take profits if you got em - i know i did

i'l be looking for a breakout of friday's range for my next trade

[Eddo]

The bears couldn't push her higher, and the bears are now having their turn at the rising trendline off the LOD. If we do go down to test the LOD and we succeed in taking it out, then my target for later today or first thing tomorrow would be a retest of the 2/1 low at 1376.50. If this up trendline holds? Who knows? 1418?

well David you did suggest that today was a SS day so its looking like you might be on the right side of this thing with your short off that DP

[d-day]

The up trendline has, at least temporarily been violated and we are at first fib support (61.8 off LOD) below the trend line. Additional support at 1384.50, 1383.75, and the LOD 1382.75 if the bulls don't make a stand here.

[d-day]

well, we'r still trading inside friday's range and the morn is about over - no big news for today so it seems it will be time to take profits if you got em - i know i did

i'l be looking for a breakout of friday's range for my next trade

Congrats j! I'm still short and hoping we at least test the LOD, tho I'll be watchful at the .776-.886 fib supports.

[Eddo]

Congrats j! I'm still short and hoping we at least test the LOD, tho I'll be watchful at the .776-.886 fib supports.

We have a pot TS on the ES and DP on the NQ (3 mins) and depending of what they do, I reckon might be the decider on this little tale - of the two the NQ looks best to me and I see the ES has done its vanishing trick again because of the low R:R

[tar001]

anyone like this? I am not in it yet, just a heads up if it takes out the high of the blue bar

[Steve Griffiths]

We have a pot TS on the ES and DP on the NQ (3 mins) and depending of what they do, I reckon might be the decider on this little tale - of the two the NQ looks best to me and I see the ES has done its vanishing trick again because of the low R:R

Exactly !! if the set-up is NOT VALID, then it will be removed from the chart. This is how the software is designed !

Steve

[jjc]

you guys think this ts3 on the es 3min looks good enuf to take?

[d-day]

We have a pot TS on the ES and DP on the NQ (3 mins) and depending of what they do, I reckon might be the decider on this little tale - of the two the NQ looks best to me and I see the ES has done its vanishing trick again because of the low R:R

I've had a good day so far and I'm trailing the stop on my short ES. I'm still short bias for the day, so I'm staying short and I'll let you MTP TS Longs take me out on the way up, and I'll probably call it a day.

[Eddo]

Congrats j! I'm still short and hoping we at least test the LOD, tho I'll be watchful at the .776-.886 fib supports.

You don't have a very big R: in my view - might be better to try the NQ if it reverses off its DP

[Steve Griffiths]

Guys

I am now looking for Beta testers for the new RT build 40.

The changes here are

1. New improved DP logic that has a higher % of winners
2. We have set the "Calculate on bar close" to True, this forces the software to "only" look for a set-up once the bar has closed. This means that there will be no relabelling of the set-ups "as the bar is unfolding"

We added this real-time ability to help the more advanced traders among you. But it seems that more of the less experienced users cannot cope with how a bar can unfold in "real-time" and how set-ups can change naturally on the fly in real-time.

So I have decided to go back to our original setting for "only" looking for the set-ups once the bars have completed. In this way the code will only display "valid and completed" set-ups

So please feel free to try build 40 and let me (directly, not on the Forum, as it is still in Beta) of feedback on this build

Thanks

Steve

[Eddo]

You don't have a very big R: in my view - might be better to try the NQ if it reverses off its DP

Sorry - was looking at the last TS - the current one looks much better - apology for the error

[Eddo]

Sorry - was looking at the last TS - the current one looks much better - apology for the error

All bets off now - I think the Trin is brill - it keeps you clean way more than it lets you down and seems to be doing it again today for the time being :)

[tar001]

this one looks better(a bit of divergence)


anyone like this? I am not in it yet, just a heads up if it takes out the high of the blue bar

[Eddo]

Guys

I am now looking for Beta testers for the new RT build 40.

The changes here are

1. New improved DP logic that has a higher % of winners
2. We have set the "Calculate on bar close" to True, this forces the software to "only" look for a set-up once the bar has closed. This means that there will be no relabelling of the set-ups "as the bar is unfolding"

We added this real-time ability to help the more advanced traders among you. But it seems that more of the less experienced users cannot cope with how a bar can unfold in "real-time" and how set-ups can change naturally on the fly in real-time.

So I have decided to go back to our original setting for "only" looking for the set-ups once the bars have completed. In this way the code will only display "valid and completed" set-ups

So please feel free to try build 40 and let me (directly, not on the Forum, as it is still in Beta) of feedback on this build

Thanks

Steve

Is this new build on the site for download Steve or do we need to come through you ?

[d-day]

All bets off now - I think the Trin is brill - it keeps you clean way more than it lets you down and seems to be doing it again today for the time being :)


I, like many MTP'ers I believe, got away from the TRIN when it went through a bit of a rough patch back in 2006. But more and more, it does seem to have some value.

I'm still short. I keep drawing potential uptrend lines, and price keeps quietly slipping beneath them. We're bouncing a bit off 3rd fib support. Next stop, if we do not reverse higher here, is LOD, then the DP off the LOD, and then Friday's Low. However, we can reverse higher whenever Bernanke, Bush, and Paulson get nervous enough to hit the "buy, buy, buy" button.

The fuscia lines represents a measured move down from the prior swing - which would take price right down to a test of the 2/1 low.

[Eddo]

this one looks better(a bit of divergence)

Yes despite the Trin, I'am on this one as well

[G Fryer]

Yes despite the Trin, I'am on this one as well

Fire sale on the 3min NQ DP. You can still get in on this one if you act fast!

(Flopping around at the entry signal)

Gillian

[d-day]

Price/Volume pattern on this little bounce looks as though this bounce may not have legs. I'm still comfortable being short right here.

[Eddo]

Fire sale on the 3min NQ DP. You can still get in on this one if you act fast!

(Flopping around at the entry signal)

Gillian

Yup - well thats at least three of us in Gillian - fingers crossed :)

[Eddo]

Price/Volume pattern on this little bounce looks as though this bounce may not have legs. I'm still comfortable being short right here.

:) well I reckon one of us is going to be right David - which of course is what makes the market :o

[Eddo]

:) well I reckon one of us is going to be right David - which of course is what makes the market :o

phew - a nasty looking pot TS on the NQ just disapeared - us longies really didn't need that sitting there right now !

[tar001]

can't we all be right? ES goes down and the NQ bounce?
:D


:) well I reckon one of us is going to be right David - which of course is what makes the market :o

[Eddo]

can't we all be right? ES goes down and the NQ bounce?
:D

lol - you don't want much do you :)

[Eddo]

lol - you don't want much do you :)

well its just about 13:00 eastern and 18:00 GMT (scotch time here) which I reckon is Take Off time - just not sure if were going up or down - which doesn't say much from my trading skills today does it :(

[tar001]

no but it does say alot about your scotch drinking skills and thats probably more important
hahaha



well its just about 13:00 eastern and 18:00 GMT (scotch time here) which I reckon is Take Off time - just not sure if were going up or down - which doesn't say much from my trading skills today does it :(

[d-day]

:) well I reckon one of us is going to be right David - which of course is what makes the market :o

Well, if you're right now, that'll be ok with me, cause I'm short from up aways and I've already booked some right smart profits as I was taught by that ornery one-eyed Texan to do. So, we can "both be right" in a sense. I'm in what I call "lottery ticket mode" - I'm trailing with a small part of my position, and if I'm stopped out, I won't barely notice it, but if we hit my downside targets, the I pay the an extra mortgage payment this month.

[tar001]

unless you meant Scottish time
:D


well its just about 13:00 eastern and 18:00 GMT (scotch time here) which I reckon is Take Off time - just not sure if were going up or down - which doesn't say much from my trading skills today does it :(

[tar001]

say goodbye to that 400$, you're welcome David
:D

[Eddo]

Well, if you're right now, that'll be ok with me, cause I'm short from up aways and I've already booked some right smart profits as I was taught by that ornery one-eyed Texan to do. So, we can "both be right" in a sense. I'm in what I call "lottery ticket mode" - I'm trailing with a small part of my position, and if I'm stopped out, I won't barely notice it, but if we hit my downside targets, the I pay the an extra mortgage payment this month.

Congrats David - you were right (and if I had listened to my Trin so would I have been!) - have a good rest of your ride.

[Eddo]

unless you meant Scottish time
:D

Yes I got lost on the slopes of 'Glenfidich'

[d-day]

Price/Volume pattern on this little bounce looks as though this bounce may not have legs. I'm still comfortable being short right here.

Volume dried up on that little bounce (do we even grant it "bounce" status?), and then volume expanded when price slipped below that little up sloping trendline. Lots of volume on that DP, so I took a bit more in, but odds are we go to test Friday's LOD, then only question is do we test it today, or do they take us there or lower tomorrown morning to set up tomorrow's Buy Day?

[tar001]

wheres Paulson and the boys when you need them? I guess i'll give them another shot to come through!! this is where I usually get myself in trouble by overtrading

[d-day]

Same Price/Volume Pattern on this bounce off of that DP that has so far been contained entirely within the range of the long bar off the DP.

Odds favor a bearish resolution.

[tar001]

seems like it wants to go lower(until of course you short it) anyone ever play these?



wheres Paulson and the boys when you need them? I guess i'll give them another shot to come through!! this is where I usually get myself in trouble by overtrading

[d-day]

I keep the following quote from Victor "Trader Vic" Sperandeo on my desk that helps me keep focused on what to expect on days like today:

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap." Victor Sperandeo, Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231



We did break a down trendline anchored at Friday's HOD and today's 11:30 AM EST high. We are now testing that trendline as support (looking at the 5 minute chart. This is another Sperandeo play potentially - a 123 trend change - if the trendline's test holds and we rally from here. That being said, I am still bias short for the day, and I would expect any rally from here to fail to fill that gap, and the ES is would still be more susceptible to new lows than a new HOD (again - that's my opinion, and I've been wrong many times).

[Eddo]

I keep the following quote from Victor "Trader Vic" Sperandeo on my desk that helps me keep focused on what to expect on days like today:

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap." Victor Sperandeo, Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231



We did break a down trendline anchored at Friday's HOD and today's 11:30 AM EST high. We are now testing that trendline as support (looking at the 5 minute chart. This is another Sperandeo play potentially - a 123 trend change - if the trendline's test holds and we rally from here.

David,

If I understand that quote correctly - shurely the direction of the Gap today was down, we didn't reverse it in the 1st 15 mins - so based on that shouldn't we expect to be continuing down for the day and into the close?

Or am I missing something here?

Chris

[Eddo]

David,

If I understand that quote correctly - shurely the direction of the Gap today was down, we didn't reverse it in the 1st 15 mins - so based on that shouldn't we expect to be continuing down for the day and into the close?

Or am I missing something here?

Chris

BTW - with my Trin sitting at 1.5 and rising I am ignoring all of these TS Long sigs that are pinging away in my ear !!

[d-day]

David,

If I understand that quote correctly - shurely the direction of the Gap today was down, we didn't reverse it in the 1st 15 mins - so based on that shouldn't we expect to be continuing down for the day and into the close?

Or am I missing something here?

Chris

Hi Chris,

Yes, what you are missing is what I added when I was finishing my post (a stray cursor caused an early "submit reply" before I had finished typing).

The rest of my post follows:

That being said, I am still bias short for the day, and I would expect any rally from here to fail to fill that gap, and the ES is would still be more susceptible to new lows than a new HOD (again - that's my opinion, and I've been wrong many times).

And I would guess that if one were to apply Trader Vic's gap appraoch to today, you would be short with a trailing stop and a market on close order to cover.

[tar001]

cover at this DP anyone going long here?



seems like it wants to go lower(until of course you short it) anyone ever play these?

[edfash]

nice dax trade consistant with the overall bias and unfilled gaps.

[d-day]

cover at this DP anyone going long here?

Good luck with that, TAR.

I'm short and staying that way. I have one itty bitty ES contract left that is short from 1390.5. My stop is 1395 and I will either be stopped out or I will be flat on MOC.

I am staying short because:

1) Today is a sell short cycle day,

2) We gapped down and failed to fill the gap in either the first 15 minutes or in the course of the first reaction

3) In the course of the gap down, my 15 minute ES chart flipped from bias long to bias short,

3) TRIN is red and screaming at 1.55 or so and it has been there all day from the looks of it (thanks to Chris Eddison for getting me to take another look at the TRIN after having abandoned it almost 18 months ago.)

4) I'm trying to trade my play early and hold it rather than pick turns. I'm tired of seeing my broker make as much from my commission charges with no risk as I do with all the risk.

All that does not mean we do not rally from here, or at least get a tradable, scalpable bounce, but I think we have a trend day in the making and we are going to close much closer to the lows than the highs. That being the case, I want to be short, not long.

[d-day]

nice dax trade consistant with the overall bias and unfilled gaps.


Very nice Ed! MTP nailed that one. I've been hoping for a TS3 to add some more shorts on the ES for the afternoon, but price has not cooperated.

[jjc]

Good luck with that, TAR.

I'm short and staying that way. I have one itty bitty ES contract left that is short from 1390.5. My stop is 1395 and I will either be stopped out or I will be flat on MOC.

I am staying short because:

1) Today is a sell short cycle day,

2) We gapped down and failed to fill the gap in either the first 15 minutes or in the course of the first reaction

3) In the course of the gap down, my 15 minute ES chart flipped from bias long to bias short,

3) TRIN is red and screaming at 1.55 or so and it has been there all day from the looks of it (thanks to Chris Eddison for getting me to take another look at the TRIN after having abandoned it almost 18 months ago.)

4) I'm trying to trade my play early and hold it rather than pick turns. I'm tired of seeing my broker make as much from my commission charges with no risk as I do with all the risk.

All that does not mean we do not rally from here, or at least get a tradable, scalpable bounce, but I think we have a trend day in the making and we are going to close much closer to the lows than the highs. That being the case, I want to be short, not long.

i prefer the maria index

http://www.kaleberg.com/maria/maria.html

[Eddo]

Hi Chris,

Yes, what you are missing is what I added when I was finishing my post (a stray cursor caused an early "submit reply" before I had finished typing).

The rest of my post follows:



And I would guess that if one were to apply Trader Vic's gap appraoch to today, you would be short with a trailing stop and a market on close order to cover.

Many thanks for that - I thought I was going mad - all very clear now and I thank you for the quote which makes such excellent sense to me

C

[d-day]

i prefer the maria index

http://www.kaleberg.com/maria/maria.html

lol too funny j


You know what ... I rarely have CNBC on. I have no television in my office, and when I'm not in my office, it is usually because I'm watching my kids and so if anything is on it is Thomas the Tank Engine. But on August 16th, I was on the phone with my dad and he had me turn CNBC on for some reason. A few minutes later, Maria Bartiromo was there on the floor and looked up and saw the down down 350+ points or so for the second time today and she said something like "there it goes, its all over", and I told my dad we just had the buy signal of a life time and I immediately went long the ER2. So yes, I like the maria index as well lol.

[d-day]

Have good night, all.

I don't know if we close on the low tick of the day, we're near enough to say this was a Sell Short Trend Day.

[tar001]

got a bit of a bounce but never hit the DP, I REALLY thought it would(damn) I got stopped out at the m/a!! overtraded as per usual
hahahah
pfffffffffffffffffffffffft


cover at this DP anyone going long here?

[d-day]

got a bit of a bounce but never hit the DP, I REALLY thought it would

Why? What was the basis of your trade?

[Larry22]

Why? What was the basis of your trade?


I think tar likes to trade against the trend and give money to his broker. :D

Serioulsly I only made 3 trades today (ER2) and all short, I have been tempted to buy around 13:09 ET but I waited and sold around 728 at about 11:55 ET.

My first sell was at 729.4 at 9:18 ET.

Today was a good day for me because I followed my game plan, who was very simple like DDay, it was to stay short because the main trend was short.

Laurent

[tar001]

same thing that gets me in all my trades, greed and fear hahah
I saw this divergence and we were at a confluence(big word) of DP's if you look closely at the chart you will see we were at multiple DP's. I felt(gut) that it would bounce up to the opposing DP but as usual I was wrong haha you know Mondays are not usualy good for me(really) it takes me awhile to get in the groove of things, by Friday Im on it hahahah


Why? What was the basis of your trade?

[tar001]

I wondered why my broker sent me a Christmas bonus this year? so thats not the norm? hahahah


I think tar likes to trade against the trend and give money to his broker. :D

Serioulsly I only made 3 trades today (ER2) and all short, I have been tempted to buy around 13:09 ET but I waited and sold around 728 at about 11:55 ET.

My first sell was at 729.4 at 9:18 ET.

Today was a good day for me because I followed my game plan, who was very simple like DDay, it was to stay short because the main trend was short.

Laurent

[tar001]

what did you use as your trade setups? how did you know the trend would be down? I guess that really is my problem, I always do seem to trade against the main trend?

I think tar likes to trade against the trend and give money to his broker. :D

Serioulsly I only made 3 trades today (ER2) and all short, I have been tempted to buy around 13:09 ET but I waited and sold around 728 at about 11:55 ET.

My first sell was at 729.4 at 9:18 ET.

Today was a good day for me because I followed my game plan, who was very simple like DDay, it was to stay short because the main trend was short.

Laurent

[Larry22]

what did you use as your trade setups? how did you know the trend would be down? I guess that really is my problem, I always do seem to trade against the main trend?

Very easy look at my 2 charts, my trade are based on MTP DP retracement or projections and trend confirmation from my MACDBB. I also forgot to mention daily wave analysis. ;)

P.S you won't see gaps on these charts as they are on the 24hr Globex.

Laurent

[tar001]

all I see on there are places I would have went long? hahah I guess I am an eternal optimist
:D


Very easy look at my 2 charts, my trade are based on MTP DP retracement or projections and trend confirmation from my MACDBB. I also forgot to mention daily wave analysis. ;)

P.S you won't see gaps on these charts as they are on the 24hr Globex.

Laurent

[Larry22]

all I see on there are places I would have went long? hahah I guess I am an eternal optimist
:D

I suggest you go read this thread about the MACDBB you have 2 references sites with videos.

http://www.ninjatrader-support.com/vb/showthread.php?t=2942

This should help you identify a trend or at least try to have you follow one.

Laurent

[jjc]

larry22

i agree with tar01, i dont see how you get trend confirmation either

how bout marking the chart when and why u got short like the rest of us do?

spose u cud xplain ?

[tar001]

Is that something that you have to purchase? I actually remember the MACDBB indicator from a company called Nexgen(or something like that) I think it was like 10k$ for their system


I suggest you go read this thread about the MACDBB you have 2 references sites with videos.

http://www.ninjatrader-support.com/vb/showthread.php?t=2942

This should help you identify a trend or at least try to have you follow one.

Laurent