US Markets: Real-time Trading

[Biggo]

sure seems to be alot of selling today, even I have trouble seeing a bounce
:O)

Trin has been up 1.60 - 1.80 all morning sellers in control ;)

[d-day]

I bought j, but just 1 itty bitty contract at 1351.25

I'm out with a few points. Now I'm looking for 1346.75 or so - the .776 fib retrace of the rally off the 1/31


That was quick, we're there now

[tar001]

must be nice to have a TRIN reading hahaha I guess I am going to have to subscribe to that data
:D


Trin has been up 1.60 - 1.80 all morning sellers in control ;)

[d-day]

I'm out with a few points. Now I'm looking for 1346.75 or so - the .776 fib retrace of the rally off the 1/31


That was quick, we're there now

Lots of momo getting there - looks to me like we're gonna close on the lows.

[tar001]

for the optimists in the group you could always try this
:D


must be nice to have a TRIN reading hahaha I guess I am going to have to subscribe to that data
:D

[Stefan61200]

Thanks god I printed this out yesterday and sticked it on my screen.

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap." Victor Sperandeo, Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231


Stefan

[d-day]

Thanks god I printed this out yesterday and sticked it on my screen.

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap." Victor Sperandeo, Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231


Stefan

I wish I had seen that ;) - I would have just held my initial short and taken a nap with the alarm clock set to wake me at about 3:45 PM EST

[jjc]

taking tar001's long at 46.00 :)

[d-day]

taking tar001's long at 46.00 :)

Because we all know about tar's counter-trend trading prowess:rolleyes:

[jjc]

Because we all know about tar's counter-trend trading prowess:rolleyes:

whew, i took some serious enemy fire on that one but held in ther, maybe i can scale out of a few now - thanks for the trade oh wise tar001

[tar001]

actually you would have been stopped out of my trade awhile back hahah I took it but just for a scalp , there was really no divergence and with Biggo reminding me of the TRIN it was a short lived bounce
it was to enter at 1348.75(my chart is hard to see on here)



whew, i took some serious enemy fire on that one but held in ther, maybe i can scale out of a few now - thanks for the trade oh wise tar001

[tar001]

are we all in agreement that the trend is DOWN? hahah!! lets see if this one hits the DP:D

[tar001]

close enough for moi



are we all in agreement that the trend is DOWN? hahah!! lets see if this one hits the DP:D

[tar001]

wow good thing I wasn't feeling very optimistic today, no bounce at all going into the close? Bernanke off today?


close enough for moi

[jay21]

OK guys,

so we came into today looking at today as a Buy Day from the viewpoint of the LSS-method. But actual trading was more in line with yesterday's Sell Short day.

So my question is about tomorrow - should we then look forward to tomorrow as the day coming after a Buy-day, ie a Sell day?

Or should we see today as a second Sell Short day and look forward to a Buy-day tomorrow instead?

If I understand correctly, only Sell days can be multiple to prolong the cycle according to the LSS-method.... but I am not really sure...

Anyone knows - David...?

Thanks to all of you for your great input!!

[Stefan61200]

Hi guys,

what do you think about this wave count on a 60-min chart of the ESH8?
Every opinion is highly appreciated.

My post count says "2" now. So I am brand new to this forum (and to MTP) and I am really looking forward to be part of the "game".

I wish you all a nice evening.
Stefan

[jands]

Hi Jay,

Just my 2 cents worth. I've only studied the LSS by George Angell and not "the straight from the horses mouth" the TTT method as I believe Dday and others have studied.

I do believe that a sell short day can run into the next day but I did however expect today to be a BUY day. This may be a time when the market is "reseting itself" probably just a term used by Taylor meaning the market is doing what it wants to do.

What I do find interesting is when you look at a daily chart I see a narrow, well defined channel, (in my assumption correction in nature), foreshadowing another big decline coming up and today would have been the trigger for that short trade. Sometimes you just can't make any rules to overcome the markets "pent-up energy" and I do think it's time for it to get rid of some more.

As my Father constantly told me when I was growing up, "We'll just have to wait and see!"

That's my armchair quarterbacking and BS for today. Hope it gave you some ideas.

Jim

[edfash]

using a slightly higher time frame (135 min or 3 bars per day session) it would appear we vhave completed wvae 4 of a higher degree structure and have begun the 3rd impulse wave down. the 2 impulses down are in blue and the 2 corrective waves are in magenta. please note the symmetry between the 2 corrective waves, and that both impulse waves down subdivided into a 5 wave structure. if wave 5 does take out the Wave 3 low a projection would be 1217 (mar es) if Wave 5 = Wave 1. another means of projecting the completion of a true Elliot Wave (the Wave 4 high does not exceed the Wave 1 low is to take a 2.618 projection of Wave 1 which extends down to 1147. interestingly this is the exact projection if Wave is a 1.382 extension of Wave 1. a dp zone off the wave 3 low starts at 1245. I initiate the wave count with the Oct highs.

considering the market had 2 sequential narrow range days preceeding today, a range expansion day was most likely. when we gapped down and barely entered the gap area a downside trend day became the most likely outcome. yesterday i posted a chart of $vold ($uvol-$dvol) and showed how the trend of the internal predicted a close near the lows, todays vold also showed this trend. i am also posting an updated vold chart.

[d-day]

so we came into today looking at today as a Buy Day from the viewpoint of the LSS-method. But actual trading was more in line with yesterday's Sell Short day. So my question is about tomorrow - should we then look forward to tomorrow as the day coming after a Buy-day, ie a Sell day? Or should we see today as a second Sell Short day and look forward to a Buy-day tomorrow instead?

Hi jay,

First, the Taylor Trading technique is a method, not a system, and as you have very quickly come to realize, you cannot simply apply it to trading the market mechanically. I felt that the buy day scenario was for the most part dead at the time the 3 minute TS3 sell signal triggered on the ES at 10:30 AM EST. Now, had I executed my plan properly, today would have been easy - I would have had thre small losses as I nibbled on the long side as price probed the gap, and then I would have had one big winner as I went short the ES on that TS3. As Ed notes in his excllent post quoted below, at that point, we should have expected a southgoing trend day.

considering the market had 2 sequential narrow range days preceeding today, a range expansion day was most likely. when we gapped down and barely entered the gap area a downside trend day became the most likely outcome. yesterday i posted a chart of $vold ($uvol-$dvol) and showed how the trend of the internal predicted a close near the lows, todays vold also showed this trend. i am also posting an updated vold chart.

My plan on such days is to turn off the ATR stops, turn off the MTP signals, mute my computer, and go to sleep, setting my alarm clock to wake me to exit around 3:30 PM EST. ;)

Yesterday I executed my plan perfectly. Once I was convinced I was positioned in the direction of the intraday trend, I left well enough alone. I stayed short all day, though I did scale out with profits along the way. Yesterday I did three trades - short at the open in anticipation of a sell short southgoing trend day, long at a DP on a pattern that frequently reverses the trend and will cause the market to trend opposite the direction anticipated by the Taylor Trade cycle, and then short at the 50 MA on the 5 minute chart as my 15 minute chart flipped to bias down.

What happened today? Well, unfortunately I'm a mere human being. I had it in my head that the most likely play would be to be long today, and so I spent most of the day scalping long and short. I finally did get another short signal (non-MTP) on the ES about 2:40 PM EST, and I stayed short until I had to leave for an appointment.

Bottom line: Have a plan, and make the Trade cycle a part of that plan, but do not let your expectations with respect to the trade cycle cause you to cast a blind eye on the actual opportunities unfolding before you.

[d-day]

considering the market had 2 sequential narrow range days preceeding today, a range expansion day was most likely. when we gapped down and barely entered the gap area a downside trend day became the most likely outcome. yesterday i posted a chart of $vold ($uvol-$dvol) and showed how the trend of the internal predicted a close near the lows, todays vold also showed this trend. i am also posting an updated vold chart.

The only criticism I have, Ed, of your assessment above, is that I did not have it available to read at 10:30 AM this morning when it would have done me the most immediate benefit. If you see me fumbling along during the day, as enjoyable as it may be to watch, please show some mercy and save me from my folly.

Have a good night, and thank you for sharing this with us,

d-day

[jjc]

The only criticism I have, Ed, of your assessment above, is that I did not have it available to read at 10:30 AM this morning when it would have done me the most immediate benefit. If you see me fumbling along during the day, as enjoyable as it may be to watch, please show some mercy and save me from my folly.

Have a good night, and thank you for sharing this with us,

d-day

Sooo, what are you trying to say? Ahhh, let me guess...

[tar001]

available to read ha! in the future I want this type of info time stamped Emailed, IM'd, PM'd and stamped on my frickin forehead so I don't forget it throughout the trading day
hahahah
:D


The only criticism I have, Ed, of your assessment above, is that I did not have it available to read at 10:30 AM this morning when it would have done me the most immediate benefit. If you see me fumbling along during the day, as enjoyable as it may be to watch, please show some mercy and save me from my folly.

Have a good night, and thank you for sharing this with us,

d-day

[rrs]

Hi Tom,

I am attaching the S&P 500 weekly chart to this message. Please watch carefully the area highlighted in yellow. The price action and the volume that goes with it will tell you a lot about the probable course of the market in months to come. The yellow area shows you two important landmarks:

1) a falling 30 week MA

2) a newly drawn trend line with a down slope (dotted line in green).....


Hi Tom,

Here is the updated version of the same chart -- hopefully, of some use to you in following the course of price action and the earlier assessment of this cash index.

Rama.

[tar001]

Thanks Rama, pretty amazing that MTP DP nailed that high, with divergence on the STF and all!! sure wish I took it
:D


Hi Tom,

Here is the updated version of the same chart -- hopefully, of some use to you in following the course of price action and the earlier assessment of this cash index.

Rama.

[jay21]

Hi Jay,

Just my 2 cents worth. I've only studied the LSS by George Angell and not "the straight from the horses mouth" the TTT method as I believe Dday and others have studied.

I do believe that a sell short day can run into the next day but I did however expect today to be a BUY day. This may be a time when the market is "reseting itself" probably just a term used by Taylor meaning the market is doing what it wants to do.

What I do find interesting is when you look at a daily chart I see a narrow, well defined channel, (in my assumption correction in nature), foreshadowing another big decline coming up and today would have been the trigger for that short trade. Sometimes you just can't make any rules to overcome the markets "pent-up energy" and I do think it's time for it to get rid of some more.

As my Father constantly told me when I was growing up, "We'll just have to wait and see!"

That's my armchair quarterbacking and BS for today. Hope it gave you some ideas.

Jim

Thanks a lot for this Jim!

Yeah I suppose one should not be too rigid in applying certain indicators and methods, and overlooking other means of market analysis - combining it all is where I feel the difficulty sometimes happens. But I suppose that is trading - a game of paradoxes...:)

[jay21]

Hi jay,

First, the Taylor Trading technique is a method, not a system, and as you have very quickly come to realize, you cannot simply apply it to trading the market mechanically. I felt that the buy day scenario was for the most part dead at the time the 3 minute TS3 sell signal triggered on the ES at 10:30 AM EST. Now, had I executed my plan properly, today would have been easy - I would have had thre small losses as I nibbled on the long side as price probed the gap, and then I would have had one big winner as I went short the ES on that TS3. As Ed notes in his excllent post quoted below, at that point, we should have expected a southgoing trend day.



My plan on such days is to turn off the ATR stops, turn off the MTP signals, mute my computer, and go to sleep, setting my alarm clock to wake me to exit around 3:30 PM EST. ;)

Yesterday I executed my plan perfectly. Once I was convinced I was positioned in the direction of the intraday trend, I left well enough alone. I stayed short all day, though I did scale out with profits along the way. Yesterday I did three trades - short at the open in anticipation of a sell short southgoing trend day, long at a DP on a pattern that frequently reverses the trend and will cause the market to trend opposite the direction anticipated by the Taylor Trade cycle, and then short at the 50 MA on the 5 minute chart as my 15 minute chart flipped to bias down.

What happened today? Well, unfortunately I'm a mere human being. I had it in my head that the most likely play would be to be long today, and so I spent most of the day scalping long and short. I finally did get another short signal (non-MTP) on the ES about 2:40 PM EST, and I stayed short until I had to leave for an appointment.

Bottom line: Have a plan, and make the Trade cycle a part of that plan, but do not let your expectations with respect to the trade cycle cause you to cast a blind eye on the actual opportunities unfolding before you.

Thanks a bunch Dave!

I agree with you flexibility is of essence.

But again, just looking at that LSS-method to formulate a gameplan of today - based on yesterday's action what would you expect to be the kind of day today - Sell Day, or Buy Day?

[edfash]

just wanted to post this example of a 5 wave move in the er yesterday. note the perfect symmetry betwee the 2 corrective waves. this is always a great help in identifying the wave count. the completion targets are identified as a displacement of wave 1 onto the beginning of wave 5, and the completion occurred between a 1:1 displacement and a 1:1.382 displacement.

[edfash]

failed to mention how the DP nailed the completion target. so despite it being a trend day where we might normally ignore countertrend signals, this one occurring at a 5 wave move completion target would have added value. food for thought.
have a great day everyone.

[d-day]

just wanted to post this example of a 5 wave move in the er yesterday. note the perfect symmetry betwee the 2 corrective waves. this is always a great help in identifying the wave count. the completion targets are identified as a displacement of wave 1 onto the beginning of wave 5, and the completion occurred between a 1:1 displacement and a 1:1.382 displacement.

So does your wave count indicate that 5 waves down are complete, and that we should expect some type of corrective bounce today before the next downleg?

[Eddo]

Long AB off DP :)

[edfash]

the answer is definitely, although the bounce occurred in nthe globex session, being capped at a .786 retracement of wave 5.

perfect Buy day setup also consistant with the anticipation of a range day following a range expansion day. the es flushed out the stops below the globex low and yesterday's low, entering a DP zone (manual) with nice buy divergence. consistant with the buy divergence on the 15 and 30 min charts.

[d-day]

perfect Buy day setup also consistant with the anticipation of a range day following a range expansion day. the es flushed out the stops below the globex low and yesterday's low, entering a DP zone (manual) with nice buy divergence. consistant with the buy divergence on the 15 and 30 min charts.


I got long at the DP on the ES also, and I've scaled out of a bit during this bounce. I'd like to see us pull back to into the area of yesterday's 1337.50 low now that we're back on top of it. If we do and we hold, I will refuel.

[d-day]

I got long at the DP on the ES also, and I've scaled out of a bit during this bounce. I'd like to see us pull back to into the area of yesterday's 1337.50 low now that we're back on top of it. If we do and we hold, I will refuel.


And for anyone who gives creedance to these fibonacci numbers, yesterday's low is just about a .776 retrace from the LOD to the 1346.75 bounce high. I especially like when a structural support (in this case a prior low) matches with a significant fib level.

[Eddo]

And for anyone who gives creedance to these fibonacci numbers, yesterday's low is just about a .776 retrace from the LOD to the 1346.75 bounce high. I especially like when a structural support (in this case a prior low) matches with a significant fib level.

My tank is full and the gas peddle (the Trin) is heading for the metal

[d-day]

My tank is full and the gas peddle (the Trin) is heading for the metal

My stop is in place and I'm going to take a nap. At the close of the 10:30-45 EST 15 min bar my 15 minute bias flipped to long (though it is barely there and it could very easily slip back to bias short). I'm long from way down yonder at that DP and I have added a few quarters to the piggy bank. Though, as Ed said, we should expect a range contraction today after yesterday's range expansion. But it is a buy day, and the little birdie tells me we close the SPX around 1343, which is good enough for me.

That being said, I'd like to see pullbacks hold at the 1344 level and above. But what I'd like and what I'll get are often two very different things.

But with this being a Buy Day set-up, and TRIN where it is, and $VOLD trending up, I am comfortable with a long play today.

However, I will be attentive to auto DP sells as the day goes on.

[d-day]

My tank is full and the gas peddle (the Trin) is heading for the metal


The real question will be "how much gas does this market have in its tank?"

[d-day]

And this is in no way meant to be a criticism of MTP. But in my experience, when you keep getting multiple TS3 sells, that then morph into multiple TS4 sells, you fade those signals. TS3 and TS4 "continuation trades", in other words.

[Eddo]

The real question will be "how much gas does this market have in its tank?"

ah yes - unfortunately my fuel gauge isn't working so I'am just going to have to wait for the engine to cough and park it there :)

[Eddo]

And this is in no way meant to be a criticism of MTP. But in my experience, when you keep getting multiple TS3 sells, that then morph into multiple TS4 sells, you fade those signals. TS3 and TS4 "continuation trades", in other words.

sometimes yes but just at the moment I'am thinking those TS4's at the DP's could mean we are running out of gas - got v tight stop in on my long AB now

[Eddo]

sometimes yes but just at the moment I'am thinking those TS4's at the DP's could mean we are running out of gas - got v tight stop in on my long AB now

......... but I also have my eye on topping up on Continuation very soon - we will see - but so far a promising start to the US session

[Eddo]

......... but I also have my eye on topping up on Continuation very soon - we will see - but so far a promising start to the US session

well iam in for more with v tight top if this continuation fails - sit back and let it run now I think

[d-day]

well iam in for more with v tight top if this continuation fails - sit back and let it run now I think

very orderly uptrend since the DP low. I would think we should get a bit deeper retrcement soon, at least back to the 5 minute ES 34 EMA or even the 50 SMA (currently 1345-47 or so)

[Eddo]

very orderly uptrend since the DP low. I would think we should get a bit deeper retrcement soon, at least back to the 5 minute ES 34 EMA or even the 50 SMA (currently 1345-47 or so)

I think your right if the old DP resistance doesn't turn into support (right now) - if it can hold here however we have some way further to go I feel - either way, stops are tucked in nice and tight so I am sitting back and leaving it

[d-day]

I think your right if the old DP resistance doesn't turn into support (right now) - if it can hold here however we have some way further to go I feel - either way, stops are tucked in nice and tight so I am sitting back and leaving it


Well 1352.50 was yesterday afternoon's high, and it was also basically the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's HOD to this mornings LOD, so it was a logical place for a pullback. Thus far a very orderly pulback. Someone is buying this thing today. I'd like to see it back to 1346 before commencing another up leg, if another up leg is in the cards for today.

[jjc]

I think your right if the old DP resistance doesn't turn into support (right now) - if it can hold here however we have some way further to go I feel - either way, stops are tucked in nice and tight so I am sitting back and leaving it

Eddo, i was telling dave earlier that one other thing ive been doing lately on a 3min es is going to mtp edit studies and clicking on the major trend as well as the Int trend - when both agree with the same dp its been providing some strong support and resist

question of course is, will it work today - im sure some arm chair waver will come on later tonight and say i shud of done otherwise :)

[Eddo]

Well 1352.50 was yesterday afternoon's high, and it was also basically the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's HOD to this mornings LOD, so it was a logical place for a pullback. Thus far a very orderly pulback. Someone is buying this thing today. I'd like to see it back to 1346 before commencing another up leg, if another up leg is in the cards for today.

well we are certainly taking our time deciding on what happens next - not that I am in any rush :) Once again however this was a wonderful MTP setup on the 3 min AB in my view - got at least 3R in the old skyrocket based on my stop and that follows up two nice 2.5R wins on the the FTSE early today - so all in all Je suis an appy bunny :)

[d-day]

looks like all the buyers were perched on the 20 EMA - I'm still siting here waiting for 1346.

[Eddo]

Eddo, i was telling dave earlier that one other thing ive been doing lately on a 3min es is going to mtp edit studies and clicking on the major trend as well as the Int trend - when both agree with the same dp its been providing some strong support and resist

question of course is, will it work today - im sure some arm chair waver will come on later tonight and say i shud of done otherwise :)

I like that J - thank you - a nice idea

Chris

[d-day]

looks like all the buyers were perched on the 20 EMA - I'm still siting here waiting for 1346.

Maybe the Master Market manipulators are kindly setting up a nice ABC TS3 for us to buy?

[Eddo]

Maybe the Master Market manipulators are kindly setting up a nice ABC TS3 for us to buy?

..... sometimes I sits and thinks, sometimes I just sits - today its the later for me

[Eddo]

..... sometimes I sits and thinks, sometimes I just sits - today its the later for me

are you looking at about 1345 ish in about 29- 30 mins for that ABC David ?

[Eddo]

are you looking at about 1345 ish in about 29- 30 mins for that ABC David ?

btw, is it me or has Volume about dried up for the time being

[tar001]

where do you see a wonderful TS3 on the 3 minute AB? I don't have any such wonderful setup on my charts? all I have are sell setups and so far most of them failed(obviously)
:D


\well we are certainly taking our time deciding on what happens next - not that I am in any rush :) Once again however this was a wonderful MTP setup on the 3 min AB in my view - got at least 3R in the old skyrocket based on my stop and that follows up two nice 2.5R wins on the the FTSE early today - so all in all Je suis an appy bunny :)

[Eddo]

where do you see a wonderful TS3 on the 3 minute AB? I don't have any such wonderful setup on my charts? all I have are sell setups and so far most of them failed(obviously)
:D


\

it wasn't a TS3 is was a manual DP about 15 mins into the start of the day - its just been stopped as I type - but very nice except the continuation bit didn't do anything.

The potential TS is the ES 3 min which I think David spotted - its not an MTP sig yet - just looking at the very orderly up trend and what looks to be an ABC setting up - damm it just did on MTP !!

[tar001]

now I have a TS setup on a 3 minute ES, anyone taking it?


where do you see a wonderful TS3 on the 3 minute AB? I don't have any such wonderful setup on my charts? all I have are sell setups and so far most of them failed(obviously)
:D


\

[Eddo]

now I have a TS setup on a 3 minute ES, anyone taking it?

its not fired yet - dont jump the gun my friend

[tar001]

hahah just my nature. I meant does anyone like it
:D


its not fired yet - dont jump the gun my friend

[Eddo]

hahah just my nature. I meant does anyone like it
:D

sorry - didn't mean to do the teacher bit - apologies

[tar001]

no need to apologize, sometimes I need a good kick in the a$$, looks like the market is going to give us a chance to get in cheaper
:D


sorry - didn't mean to do the teacher bit - apologies

[Sanjay]

now I have a TS setup on a 3 minute ES, anyone taking it?

potential TS4 on 3min NQ and a pot TS3 on 3 min ES forming...but the volume is very very light..

[jjc]

if that es ts3 does fire it cud be a nice abc correction from hod - and steve did hint it was take profit day today (i think thats what he hinted)

[tar001]

are you in the NQ trade?


potential TS4 on 3min NQ and a pot TS3 on 3 min ES forming...but the volume is very very light..

[Eddo]

potential TS4 on 3min NQ and a pot TS3 on 3 min ES forming...but the volume is very very light..

yes - like a river running out of water - but if the ES can put in a TS sig around here I reckon it will be right at .50 fib so could be very nice - if we get it

[Eddo]

yes - like a river running out of water - but if the ES can put in a TS sig around here I reckon it will be right at .50 fib so could be very nice - if we get it

we have a blue Trin, a black STF, were hanging around .50 fib and we have a nice looking ABC .............. but MTP doesn't want to put in the signal :mad:

[tar001]

why not go long the NQ then?


we have a blue Trin, a black STF, were hanging around .50 fib and we have a nice looking ABC .............. but MTP doesn't want to put in the signal :mad:

[Eddo]

why not go long the NQ then?

I think its pattern looks horrible - plus it hasn't triggered yet either - I think I just sits again :)

[d-day]

we have a blue Trin, a black STF, were hanging around .50 fib and we have a nice looking ABC .............. but MTP doesn't want to put in the signal :mad:

You are at the point Eddo, Chris, where you may not need to wait for MTP to give the go ahead everytime. The 5 minute ES looks like it should have a TS2, but obviously the risk controls Steve has built into MTP keep a sig from appearing.

TAYOR - Trade at your own risk. I added on a buy limit at 1345 - the 50 MA on the 5 minute. My bias is long until we have a 15 minute bar close below 1343.50. Would I have rather had an MTP sig firing and triggering at the same time? You bet! But, as the Stones told us so long ago, "You can't always get what you want."

I am a bit concerned about volume, however. I do not like being in a market whereliquidity has dried up so drastically.

[edfash]

what i look for on a Z day is trade on both sides of the Opening Price. understanding that the Taylor rhythm suggest a buy day and that we may have an afternoon trend up (i will follow $vold carefully to see if it trends). my strategy was to buy a washout of yesterday's lows and sell a washout of the globex highs into that 1352.5 that david pointed to. so i was looking for trade from DP to DP.

[tar001]

the Nasdaq is actually below yesterdays closing price? but if you look at Yahoo finance it shows its up 1%? what do they base their #'s on? the Jim Cramer school of finance? hahah

[Eddo]

Well looking at the volume (or lack of it) it looks like all the pros have gone off for an early lunch.

With it being only 10 mins to 'Scotch' time here in Blighty and with England playing Switzerland in the footy tonight under our new Italian stalion manager I think I will call it a day, pocket my winnings get ready for the match and wish you all a good evening and good trading :)

Chris

[Eddo]

You are at the point Eddo, Chris, where you may not need to wait for MTP to give the go ahead everytime. The 5 minute ES looks like it should have a TS2, but obviously the risk controls Steve has built into MTP keep a sig from appearing.

TAYOR - Trade at your own risk. I added on a buy limit at 1345 - the 50 MA on the 5 minute. My bias is long until we have a 15 minute bar close below 1343.50. Would I have rather had an MTP sig firing and triggering at the same time? You bet! But, as the Stones told us so long ago, "You can't always get what you want."

I am a bit concerned about volume, however. I do not like being in a market whereliquidity has dried up so drastically.

Yes your right David but the lack of volume leaves me thinking this thing could bounce around on very little - so I'am leaving it and going to get ready with my Scotch to watch the footy - good luck with the rest of your day

C

[Sanjay]

Well looking at the volume (or lack of it) it looks like all the pros have gone off for an early lunch.

With it being only 10 mins to 'Scotch' time here in Blighty and with England playing Switzerland in the footy tonight under our new Italian stalion manager I think I will call it a day, pocket my winnings get ready for the match and wish you all a good evening and good trading :)

Chris

Enjoy the game Chris.

[tar001]

I am not but this would have been a good trade? I was so busy looking for longs that I missed it

[d-day]

the little birdie tells me we close the SPX around 1343


We've been hoverin' 'round that number for some time. In fact, as of right now, we are working on out 3rd inside bar (potentially) on the 15 minute ES) Given yesterday's large range, we may be done swingin' much for the day.

[tar001]

shoooooooooooooooooot!!






I am not but this would have been a good trade? I was so busy looking for longs that I missed it

[tar001]

anyone going long at 1341.75?
shoooooooooooooooooot!!

[tar001]

wow it really made it to the big DP!! amazing


anyone going long at 1341.75?

[jands]

shoooooooooooooooooot!!

HI Tar,

I'm just "arm-chair waving today", (taking a break because I've been over-trading and getting a bit emotional about it), so take my observation with a grain of salt, and maybe coincidence.

In hindsight, that trade had a lot of things going for it.
1) It just broke the highs from a major pivot yesterday around 11:40 am,

2) The Stochastic had a triple bearish divergence,

3) Other people have hinted that today would be a lower range day due to yesterday's plunge, and that point looked like a good one for the market to reverse.

Yes, that is cherry-picked, armchair quarter backing but those are the type of golden trades that I will be looking for when I start trading again. I know it's tough to have patience waiting for a great setup, but I'm trying to convience myself that keeping my powder dry is better than getting a bunch of losers.

Hope this helps,

Jim

[d-day]

anyone going long at 1341.75?

Not with the .776-.886 retracement levels beckoning from so near 1336.75-38.75)

[Stefan61200]

shoooooooooooooooooot!!

Hi Tar001,

nice shooot. Was this a manual or automatic DP?
I am running the version 40 and got not one little DP in this area!

Thank you.
Stefan

[tar001]

arm-chair trading is my favorite trade!! I do so well with those hahah I actually really liked that trade and I saw the divergence and setup in RT but after seeing the other failed trades and reading this forum I was looking for longs(WRONG) oh well theres always another trade:D even look at Larrys MACDBB that was telling as well(I just started using them so was unsure if I should trust it yet or not)



HI Tar,

I'm just "arm-chair waving today", (taking a break because I've been over-trading and getting a bit emotional about it), so take my observation with a grain of salt, and maybe coincidence.

In hindsight, that trade had a lot of things going for it.
1) It just broke the highs from a major pivot yesterday around 11:40 am,

2) The Stochastic had a triple bearish divergence,

3) Other people have hinted that today would be a lower range day due to yesterday's plunge, and that point looked like a good one for the market to reverse.

Yes, that is cherry-picked, armchair quarter backing but those are the type of golden trades that I will be looking for when I start trading again. I know it's tough to have patience waiting for a great setup, but I'm trying to convience myself that keeping my powder dry is better than getting a bunch of losers.

Hope this helps,

Jim

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

A great day on the 5min NQ.......

a -1R loss early in the day, now in a +5.6R Profit, short from the high of the day !!!

No need to get over complicated, just the simple and straightforward automatic set-ups - nothing fancy :)

Steve

[tar001]

hey! it was manual off of the B pivot(where the little green arrow is)


Hi Tar001,

nice shooot. Was this a manual or automatic DP?
I am running the version 40 and got not one little DP in this area!

Thank you.
Stefan

[d-day]

I am not but this would have been a good trade? I was so busy looking for longs that I missed it

Well 1352.50 was yesterday afternoon's high, and it was also basically the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's HOD to this mornings LOD, so it was a logical place for a pullback. Thus far a very orderly pulback. Someone is buying this thing today. I'd like to see it back to 1346 before commencing another up leg, if another up leg is in the cards for today.

Well, yesterday I should have seen the trend day coming, and I traded it like a range day, and today I even had Ed remind me to expect a range day, but I tried to make up for yesterday and trade today like a potential trend day.

So whereas I would typically had gone short there, Tar, I stayed long, expecting a mere "pullback."

One of these days I will get it right.

[tar001]

so now the question is do we make to the lower DP?
the Fed talked today and made comments that rising inflation might make it tough to cut rates further(and you know how the market needs those rate cuts)



hey! it was manual off of the B pivot(where the little green arrow is)

[tar001]

I think you get it right way more than you get it wrong and thats the name of the game(even though they call it trading)
:D


Well, yesterday I should have seen the trend day coming, and I traded it like a range day, and today I even had Ed remind me to expect a range day, but I tried to make up for yesterday and trade today like a potential trend day.

So whereas I would typically had gone short there, Tar, I stayed long, expecting a mere "pullback."

One of these days I will get it right.

[tar001]

so the answer to that question was a quick and decisive YES
hahaha


so now the question is do we make to the lower DP?
the Fed talked today and made comments that rising inflation might make it tough to cut rates further(and you know how the market needs those rate cuts)

[jjc]

Eddo, i was telling dave earlier that one other thing ive been doing lately on a 3min es is going to mtp edit studies and clicking on the major trend as well as the Int trend - when both agree with the same dp its been providing some strong support and resist



we have one of these now at from previous low this morn

[tar001]

Mr Optimist is long at 1333.75(at that DP)

we have one of these now at from previous low this morn

[jjc]

Mr Optimist is long at 1333.75(at that DP)


me2

but i scale out (not per mtp rules)

[tar001]

shhhhhhhhh Steve is here today hahah:D nothing wrong with taking profits.


me2

but i scale out (not per mtp rules)

[jjc]

shhhhhhhhh Steve is here today hahah:D nothing wrong with taking profits.


as long as its my money i think i can do what i want with it :D

[tar001]

question is now does this DP become resistance?



as long as its my money i think i can do what i want with it :D

[Steve Griffiths]

shhhhhhhhh Steve is here today hahah:D nothing wrong with taking profits.

Yes Steve is here today and Steve (MTP guidelines) has his stop at a +5.6R Profit as the NQ continues to decline...........

I hope everybody else is making over +5R profit on this trade ? If not, I have to ask why not ?

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

A great day on the 5min NQ

3 trades, +1.7R, -1R and +5.8% for an overall +6.5R Profit

Steve

[tar001]

quick answer? yes it does



question is now does this DP become resistance?

[Steve Griffiths]

For the Advanced traders out there

Yet another reason to take the 5min TS4 sell on the NQ - because it was "also" at the DP resistance zone from the last swing into the low (prior Wave 4 high)

Double resistance ..............

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Here it is in another view

All in all - a perfect set-up.......

Steve

[tar001]

So I'm gathering that you think we should have all shorted the NQ on the 5 minute chart or am I reading too much into your posts? hahahah
just kidding, that is a great trade that most of us were not in
the NQ is very weak today
For the Advanced traders out there

Yet another reason to take the 5min TS4 sell on the NQ - because it was "also" at the DP resistance zone from the last swing into the low (prior Wave 4 high)

Double resistance ..............

Steve

[tar001]

wow that chart looks really clean


Here it is in another view

All in all - a perfect set-up.......

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

NQ still falling in a 5-wave decline.........

Pity the ATRStop clipped out the short trade on the minor Wave 4 rally :o

Steve

[edfash]

signal was sweet on the 3 Min as well, same trade as my ES DP. DP to DP on a range am session.

[Larry22]

Here it is in another view

All in all - a perfect set-up.......

Steve

Hey Steve the new software looks great, are we gonna be able to use it in RT.

Thanks


Laurent

[tar001]

can someone please look at this and tell me why I was looking for longs all day? good grief!!:confused:

[Larry22]

can someone please look at this and tell me why I was looking for longs all day? good grief!!:confused:

You have the tools, all the indicators but the problem you don't look at them you only look at the charts and you're DP, because as usual all you want to do is trade and overtrade. :rolleyes:

[jjc]

You have the tools, all the indicators but the problem you don't look at them you only look at the charts and you're DP, because as usual all you want to do is trade and overtrade. :rolleyes:


Larry22, i have to say that i envy you - you make all those great trades day after day and so effortlessly - you must be a gadzillionaire by now :)

whereas, i just struggle to make a few pennies, at best

keep up the good trades

[tar001]

I do admit that the DP's get me in trouble, I look at them as areas as support(in a down market) so I almost always cover there and see what happens. IF there is divergences I usually go long. The indicators I have learned to not trust over the years as they are usually way late(I am not referring to the MACDBB as I just started using that) I honestly think what hurts me the most(besides over thinking) is that I used to only go long stocks for probably 10 years and I am really uncomfortable being short(as strange as that sounds its true) so basically I need a lobotomy
hahahah


You have the tools, all the indicators but the problem you don't look at them you only look at the charts and you're DP, because as usual all you want to do is trade and overtrade. :rolleyes:

[tar001]

I don't mind making a few pennies, its when I LOSE a few pennies on such an easy day that pisses me off
:D

Larry22, i have to say that i envy you - you make all those great trades day after day and so effortlessly - you must be a gadzillionaire by now :)

whereas, i just struggle to make a few pennies, at best

keep up the good trades

[tar001]

In my defense, this threw me off too buy on a 15 minute ES chart that was valid and the market did start to bounce then rolled over



I don't mind making a few pennies, its when I LOSE a few pennies on such an easy day that pisses me off
:D

[Larry22]

Larry22, i have to say that i envy you - you make all those great trades day after day and so effortlessly - you must be a gadzillionaire by now :)

whereas, i just struggle to make a few pennies, at best

keep up the good trades

I'm not saying that I allways succeed in my trades, but what I try to do is to find the trend of the market. Today I made a few trades long from the DP (see divergence on the MACDBB) then I sold once near the top (divergence stochastic)but I had the feeling that we might make another high by a few ticks to reach the DP and the 38 % retracement that's where I sold, but unfortunately I had to bail out as I had to leave and pick-up my mom (83) because her sister (86) felt at her home.

Too bad but c'est la vie.

P.S you can see on the chart (red arrow) in the bottom when we had the crossover then the 0 line that was a signal that chances were great that we would make new lows.

Laurent

Laurent

[tar001]

On the MACDBB you have a red arrow on the cross and then another where the yellow dot is. Is that where you added to your short position?


I'm not saying that I allways succeed in my trades but what I try to do is to find the trend of the market today I made a few trades long from the DP then I sold once near the top but I had the filling that we might make another high by a few ticks to reach the DP and the 38 % retracement that's where I sold, but unfortunately I had to bail out as I had to leave help my mother at her house.

Too bad

[Larry22]

All I'm trying is to show you the tools that I use to try to find the trend.

Of course it's not allways easy as it was today.

I also check the 3 min chart and the 1 min.
The reason I bought the B wave was because we had a 5 wave implulse so I was expecting another leg up, so I went on my 1 min chart and bought once but I got stopped I counted the tiny wave and waited for a corrective wave then I had it at the 62 % retracement so I rebought there and stayed long until the new high.

See 3 min charts below

[tar001]

that TS4 was stopped out using MTP guidlines?



All I'm trying is to show you the tools that I use to try to find the trend.

Of course it's not allways easy as it was today.

I also check the 3 min chart and the 1 min.
The reason I bought the B wave was because we had a 5 wave implulse so I was expecting another leg up, so I went on my 1 min chart and bought once but I got stopped I counted the tiny wave and waited for a corrective wave then I had it at the 62 % retracement so I rebought there and stayed long until the new high.

[tar001]

the TS4 sell


that TS4 was stopped out using MTP guidlines?

[Larry22]

On the MACDBB you have a red arrow on the cross and then another where the yellow dot is. Is that where you added to your short position?


First red arrow is to show you the crossover confirming at least a correction is on his way, the second red arrow is to show you the crossing of the zero line confirming a possible trend change by continuing down it was really showing that the trend was now down.

I hope this will help you.

[tar001]

I am really going to start paying closer attention to that and I am going to TRY to quit using the DP button so much
hahaha


First red arrow is to show you the crossover confirming at least a correction is on his way, the second red arrow is to show you the crossing of the zero line confirming a possible trend change by continuing down it was really showing that the trend was now down.

I hope this will help you.

[tar001]

then again if you used that DP button you would have found this


I am really going to start paying closer attention to that and I am going to TRY to quit using the DP button so much
hahaha

[Larry22]

the TS4 sell

Yup I agree but if you look at the MACDBB and the stochastic, you can see that the trend was still up until the crossover of the MACDBB, as I said earlier I was expecting I little push higher. That is why even if I sold at the TS4 I was able to see a corrective down patttern on the 1 min chart so I bailed out with a very small gain and waited for the last push to reach the 38 % retracement from the top 712.2 I think, once it did that and failed to break it then it was obvious with the stochastic divergence that the market would go down for a correction or further depending of the signals on the MACDBB.

It is allways important to know retracements from top and bottoms and also projections, that is why I knew that we were at a possible key reverseal area when we had all these targets TS4 DP 38% retracement, stochastic divergence then MACDBB crossover.

Laurent

[tar001]

I actually thought they were going to push it to this DP here and I was looking at the divergence etc and was looking to short there but it never quite got there




Yup I agree but if you look at the MACDBB and the stochastic, you can see that it the trend was still up until the crossover of the MACDBB, as I said earlier I was expecting I little push higher that is why even if I sold at the TS4 I was able to see a corrective down patttern on the 1 min chart so I bailed out witha small profit and waited for the last push to reach the 38 % retracement from the top 712.2 I think once it did that and failed to break it it was obvious with the stochastic divergence that the market would go down for a correction.

Laurent

[Larry22]

I actually thought they were going to push it to this DP here and I was looking at the divergence etc and was looking to short there but it never quite got there

I'll give you a hint, make yourself a tick chart (1597) (fibonnaci number) then look at the DP, you will understand why it didn't reached the 3 min one.

We also had a triple stochastic divergence on the 3 min, so I think you were asking a lot for a quadruple. :D

[Larry22]

Enough for me this evening, I really do hope that this will help you identify trends or at least being more careful of not taking too many counter trends trade.


Laurent

[tar001]

would a quadruple divergence be too much to ask for? hahah wow this chart is much better(in this instance) do you mainly use tick charts? I thought you used minutes?


I'll give you a hint, make yourself a tick chart (1597) (fibonnaci number) then look at the DP, you will understand why it didn't reached the 3 min one.

We also had a triple stochastic divergence on the 3 min, so I think you were asking a lot for a quadruple. :D

[Larry22]

would a quadruple divergence be too much to ask for? hahah wow this chart is much better(in this instance) do you mainly use tick charts? I thought you used minutes?

I forgot to mention, you have to set your charts on the 24 hr basis, otherwise you could be missing important highs or lows.

I use tick and 3,5,10 and 60 min charts, don't forget I have
3 22 inches monitor on my desk. :D

[tar001]

I guess I now know what I will be out buying this weekend :D at some point this stuff has to kick in!! I think your MACDBB might go a long way towards me defining the trend. I actually posted about it earlier today but was still just watching it(it is very good)


I forgot to mention you have to set your charts on the 24 hr basis otherwise you could be missing important highs or lows.

I use tick and 3,5,10 and 60 min charts, don't forget I have
3 22 inches monitor on my desk. :D

[d-day]

In the end, all the King's Indicators and all the King's Bloggers can't help you overcome the biggest obstacle to your success in trading: Your Own Self.

Here is a chart I posted earlier of the ES 5 minute. You had price at a prior high which was also a 61.8 fib retrace with bearish momentum divergence and a bearish butterfly pattern. I was long going into that high. So, I must have taken profits on my longs and reversed to short, right? Nope. I somehow talked myself into a long bias rally that would last into the close! This, in spite of the fact that after a range expansion day to the downside like we had the prior day, the most likely probability for today would be either a range day (in which case I should have expected a cycle short) or else a continuation of the prior day's trend. The least likely outcome, a trend day in the opposite direction, is precisely what I somehow talked myself into expecting. Even with this morning's apparent Buy Day set-up, I should still have been suspcious of any notion I might have had that a north bound trend day was developing.

Somedays you have it, some days you don't. I currently have two days ina row where I clearly do not have it.

Perhaps tomorrow.

[Larry22]

For some people who may be sceptical about some of my trades I will post my ER2 trade from this morning, based on a 1 min charts.

You will see when I had 1 contract left, I had bought 3 contracts at 689.3, I exited 1 after 2pt and the other after 5 points the last one at 698.3 the DP on the 1 min chart.

Laurent

[Larry22]

Sorry I forgot to include the chart.

Iwould have stayed for more profits but my PC froze because of intensive CPU demand, so I couldn't change my profit objective.

Well that should be enough for the moment

[TAS]

Larry,

Good morning and nice to see U a bit earlier than normal:)

Keep it up!

TAS


For some people who may be sceptical about some of my trades I will post my ER2 trade from this morning, based on a 1 min charts.

You will see when I had 1 contract left, I had bought 3 contracts at 689.3, I exited 1 after 2pt and the other after 5 points the last one at 698.3 the DP on the 1 min chart.

Laurent

[edfash]

after 3 days of trading from high to low, gap down finds buying interest and short covering.
initial wave up ends at a perfect .786 rtc of the prior wave down
an ABC forms that ends with C a 1.382 of A and just exceeding the globex high. there were 2 potential losers on TS3 setups.

[Larry22]

after 3 days of trading from high to low, gap down finds buying interest and short covering.
initial wave up ends at a perfect .786 rtc of the prior wave down
an ABC forms that ends with C a 1.382 of A and just exceeding the globex high. there were 2 potential losers on TS3 setups.


Yup I agree we had nice divergence on the stochastic an were at a DP and 62% retracement from the last ABC , so everything was there.

[edfash]

Larry what is the time frame of your es chart? thanks.

[Larry22]

Larry what is the time frame of your es chart? thanks.

Allmost same as yours 1597 ticks on a 24 hr basis.

[d-day]

I don't know where we are going from here, but there is a DP projection off the 9:55 EST low that would allow for a re-test of the 1312.75 globex low.

I do not know, of course, wheher we shall see such a test, but my experience has been that new globex trend extremes get tested before any sustainable price action can really gather a head of steam in the other direction. Not always, but often enough to almost say "usually."

Or this may be the start of the Great Bull Market of 2008.

Who knows?

Seriously, who knows? Because if you know, please tell me!

[TAS]

Good morning ALL,

No idea where we are going right now, but that's not important, follow the MTP way, let's the number or R take care of us in the scope BEYOND DAY though we are day-trading.

MTP, that's WHY WE HERE, at least INITIALLY...

Good trading to all.

TAS:)

I don't know where we are going from here, but there is a DP projection off the 9:55 EST low that would allow for a re-test of the 1312.75 globex low.

I do not know, of course, wheher we shall see such a test, but my experience has been that new globex trend extremes get tested before any sustainable price action can really gather a head of steam in the other direction. Not always, but often enough to almost say "usually."

Or this may be the start of the Great Bull Market of 2008.

Who knows?

Seriously, who knows? Because if you know, please tell me!

[Eddo]

I don't know where we are going from here, but there is a DP projection off the 9:55 EST low that would allow for a re-test of the 1312.75 globex low.

I do not know, of course, wheher we shall see such a test, but my experience has been that new globex trend extremes get tested before any sustainable price action can really gather a head of steam in the other direction. Not always, but often enough to almost say "usually."

Or this may be the start of the Great Bull Market of 2008.

Who knows?

Seriously, who knows? Because if you know, please tell me!

Well David, its a lovely evening here in London with the sun having just dipped below the horizon. I can see lights just coming on in the offices over at Canary Wharf and a small cruise boat has just sailed past my appartment heading up Thames towards Tower Bridge.

Apart from that, I haven't got a clue whats going on !!

Chris

PS England won last night 2-1 under our new Italian stallion! Can you believe that the country who invented football (thats soccer to you David) has to get some Italian in to run our National side - the world has gone mad ! :)

[Larry22]

We had a nice TS1 with divergence on the ER2 on the 3min charts, I allready bank my profits as I have to go out for an appointment.

I hope to be back before the end of the day.



Laurent

[jojab]

We had a nice TS1 with divergence on the ER2 on the 3min charts,
Laurent

Do you have your STF filter turned off?

[TreeShaker]

I forgot to mention, you have to set your charts on the 24 hr basis, otherwise you could be missing important highs or lows.

I use tick and 3,5,10 and 60 min charts, don't forget I have
3 22 inches monitor on my desk. :D

Now you done it, TAR will have 4 monitors before long.

[TAS]

I even know someone turing everything off to FORCE a NON-MTP trades. Trading is absolutely individual...

Good luck to the way you prefer...

TAS


Do you have your STF filter turned off?

[Stefan61200]

We had a nice TS1 with divergence on the ER2 on the 3min charts, I allready bank my profits as I have to go out for an appointment.

I hope to be back before the end of the day.



Laurent


Hi Laurent,

which version of MTP are you running? What ever I do I don't get any TS1 nor the TS4 showing on your 3 minute chart of the ERH8. Strange thing.

Thank you
Stefan

[tar001]

if you look at this chart we gapped down then went up, pulled back to the DP where you could have went long!! of course the STF is as read as can but you do have divergence on the stochastic so this was a good long at the blue bar. then we get to the next DP still have a red STF but no divergence so stay long for now!! what the heck does John Chambers from Cisco know about the global economy anyway right? hahaha

[tar001]

NOW this!! how do you play this without getting stopped out? even though you know its going up from here



if you look at this chart we gapped down then went up, pulled back to the DP where you could have went long!! of course the STF is as read as can but you do have divergence on the stochastic so this was a good long at the blue bar. then we get to the next DP still have a red STF but no divergence so stay long for now!! what the heck does John Chambers from Cisco know about the global economy anyway right? hahaha

[tar001]

I do not get those setups on mine either even on a 24 hour chart with all filters off


Hi Laurent,

which version of MTP are you running? What ever I do I don't get any TS1 nor the TS4 showing on your 3 minute chart of the ERH8. Strange thing.

Thank you
Stefan

[tar001]

hahah actually I have 2 22" monitors and a laptop(for the DOME) all right in front of me but it doesn't do me as well as it does Larry:D


Now you done it, TAR will have 4 monitors before long.

[tar001]

ouch thats a tough sentence to read(if thats what you want to call it) I meant the STF is as RED as can be.



if you look at this chart we gapped down then went up, pulled back to the DP where you could have went long!! of course the STF is as read as can but you do have divergence on the stochastic so this was a good long at the blue bar. then we get to the next DP still have a red STF but no divergence so stay long for now!! what the heck does John Chambers from Cisco know about the global economy anyway right? hahaha

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

I am NOT going to tell you all how I got this lovely +4.4R profit here.

The reason being is that whenever I try to educate people with some "advanced analysis" I get slated by the newer traders about "standard settings" etc etc.

So to keep the peace, I am going to keep my advanced knowledge to myself on this one.... so people cannot have a ago at me for breaking the standard MTP guidelines....

Steve

I guess this is the advantage I have for being the developer ;)

[tar001]

how did you get that lovely 4.4 profit
hahaha
:D

Hi Guys

I am NOT going to tell you all how I got this lovely +4.4R profit here.

The reason being is that whenever I try to educate people with some "advanced analysis" I get slated by the newer traders about "standard settings" etc etc.

So to keep the peace, I am going to keep my advanced knowledge to myself on this one.... so people cannot have a ago at me for breaking the standard MTP guidelines....

Steve

I guess this is the advantage I have for being the developer ;)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

I am NOT going to tell you all how I got this lovely +4.4R profit here.

The reason being is that whenever I try to educate people with some "advanced analysis" I get slated by the newer traders about "standard settings" etc etc.

So to keep the peace, I am going to keep my advanced knowledge to myself on this one.... so people cannot have a ago at me for breaking the standard MTP guidelines....

Steve

I guess this is the advantage I have for being the developer ;)

Here is a more detailed chart.............. so can anybody spot why I was happy to consider the ABC correction that formed after the "initial rally" off the Wave 5 low.

In fact I think I came out a little early in the rally.... as a Wave (3) type rally my well unfold from this Wave (2) low (oopps I have given the hint away there ;) )

Steve

[tar001]

looks like were headed to the big cahuna?
:D


Here is a more detailed chart.............. so can anybody spot why I was happy to consider the ABC correction that formed after the "initial rally" off the Wave 5 low.

In fact I think I came out a little early in the rally.... as a Wave (3) type rally my well unfold from this Wave (2) low (oopps I have given the hint away there ;) )

Steve

[Angel]

Hello Steve,

Your NQ trade should be a TS1 and NOT a TS3 as mentioned because it started from a major low ?

Am I missing something ?

Thanks

Happy trading

Angel

[tar001]

This made up for yesterday
:D


looks like were headed to the big cahuna?
:D

[Larry22]

This made up for yesterday
:D


Well done tar, I see you didn't overtraded this time. :D

[Larry22]

Hi Laurent,

which version of MTP are you running? What ever I do I don't get any TS1 nor the TS4 showing on your 3 minute chart of the ERH8. Strange thing.

Thank you
Stefan

I'm sorry, all my filters in the general section are set to false except for the reward ratio.

This is for advanced traders only.

I sometimes forget about my settings.

[tar001]

trust me, I was tempted:D I am actually short now the ER on the 1597 tick chart will cover soon though



QUOTE=Larry22;14259]Well done tar, I see you didn't overtraded this time. :D[/QUOTE]

[Steve Griffiths]

Here is a more detailed chart.............. so can anybody spot why I was happy to consider the ABC correction that formed after the "initial rally" off the Wave 5 low.

In fact I think I came out a little early in the rally.... as a Wave (3) type rally my well unfold from this Wave (2) low (oopps I have given the hint away there ;) )

Steve

Well there we are............. run with the ATRStop as the STR Strength band was exceeded and a strong Wave (3) Type rally unfoled

Result - a Profit of + 8.5R

Steve

But agin NOT for the newer traders using the standard guidleines, ONLY for the Advanced traders who knew to turn off the STF Filter on this special occasion........

[tar001]

would you use this as an opportunity to get back in long? and YES I covered my ER short

[tar001]

Steve
Do you think this is a bear market rally?


Well there we are............. run with the ATRStop as the STR Strength band was exceeded and a strong Wave (3) Type rally unfoled

Result - a Profit of + 8.5R

Steve

But agin NOT for the newer traders using the standard guidleines, ONLY for the Advanced traders who knew to turn off the STF Filter on this special occasion........

[tar001]

oops
I over traded again hahaha

\would you use this as an opportunity to get back in long? and YES I covered my ER short

[Larry22]

would you use this as an opportunity to get back in long? and YES I covered my ER short


Relax don't overtrade keep your profits. ;)

Oops too late

[Steve Griffiths]

would you use this as an opportunity to get back in long?

Why ???? this is NOT an MTPreductor set-up !!

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Relax don't overtrade keep your profits. ;)

Oops too late

Very good advice ..................:)

[Steve Griffiths]

oops
I over traded again hahaha

\

You have to calm down, you are just throwing your money away on silly and plain stupid set-ups........

This is ridiculous, if you want to trade in such a stupid way then that is fine, but other traders who are trying to learn how to use MTP correctly do not need to see such stupidity in trading.

Sorry to be harsh, but this is a classic example of how to go to the poor house double quick time

You must calm down and be more sensible

Steve

[tar001]

I guess I will just post after the fact trades like you do!! I didnt go long that trade! I asked if it was a valid setup


'You have to calm down, you are just throwing your money away on silly and plain stupid set-ups........

This is ridiculous, if you want to trade in such a stupid way then that is fine, but other traders who are trying to learn how to use MTP correctly do not need to see such stupidity in trading.

Sorry to be harsh, but this is a classic example of how to go to the poor house double quick time

You must calm down and be more sensible

Steve

[jjc]

I guess I will just post after the fact trades like you do!! I didnt go long that trade! I asked if it was a valid setup


'

dang tar001, you got chewed out big time...consider yourself on time out

[Stefan61200]

Hi Guys

I am NOT going to tell you all how I got this lovely +4.4R profit here.

The reason being is that whenever I try to educate people with some "advanced analysis" I get slated by the newer traders about "standard settings" etc etc.

So to keep the peace, I am going to keep my advanced knowledge to myself on this one.... so people cannot have a ago at me for breaking the standard MTP guidelines....

Steve

I guess this is the advantage I have for being the developer ;)


Hi Steve,

how ever you got this trade my screen for NQ is completely empty. :confused:

Stefan

[Steve Griffiths]

dang tar001, you got chewed out big time...consider yourself on time out

Taro1.

I am not saying don't post, you have some great trades, but as Larry also spotted, you just get too over enthusiastic sometimes and get carried away, so all I am saying is that you need to calm down and be more sensible with your manual trades.

For example the DP sell on the AB was a great call today, and in line with advanced MTP analysis.

So that is all I am saying - just slow down a bit and don't over trade and you will do well

Steve

[TreeShaker]

Here is a more detailed chart.............. so can anybody spot why I was happy to consider the ABC correction that formed after the "initial rally" off the Wave 5 low.

In fact I think I came out a little early in the rally.... as a Wave (3) type rally my well unfold from this Wave (2) low (oopps I have given the hint away there ;) )

Steve

Wave 3 is the strongest and most reliable of the trades. The STF doesn't have to be blue because you are coming off of initial correction off of an important low.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Steve,

how ever you got this trade my screen for NQ is completely empty. :confused:

Stefan

Exactly why I don't like posting any advanced analysis, because no matter how many times I say it is "advanced analysis" and explain the greater detail of the trade. I will always get people who do not understand that these are "above and beyond" the standard set-ups and as such get a hard time for trying to show more advanced trades.....

Oh well..............:(

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

because you are coming off of initial correction off of an important low.

Bingo........... spot on !!

Steve

[G Fryer]

Hi Steve,

how ever you got this trade my screen for NQ is completely empty. :confused:

Stefan

Me too...I've tried to make this trade show up and it won't. I guess its my data feed (TS). I suppose we can think of some other things for TS other than Tradestation.

Gillian

So the signal was not "on the chart," you typed it in later for us to see?

[edfash]

ES reached hod in 2 impulse waves of equal length, then collapsed in a 5 wave sequence that exhausted in the projected zone (wave 5 between 1:1 and 1:1.382 of wave 1). the bounce then exceeded a .786 rtc of wave 5.

[Stefan61200]

Me too...I've tried to make this trade show up and it won't. I guess its my data feed (TS). I suppose we can think of some other things for TS other than Tradestation.

Gillian

So the signal was not "on the chart," you typed it in later for us to see?


Well, after I played with the setup I was able to get this signal. But like Steve said it is "advanced analysis". May be in a few months I will be able to understand that. Right now I guess it is to early. :o

Stefan

[Steve Griffiths]

Me too...I've tried to make this trade show up and it won't. I guess its my data feed (TS). I suppose we can think of some other things for TS other than Tradestation.

Gillian

So the signal was not "on the chart," you typed it in later for us to see?

Again, this is why I don't like posting any advanced analysis, because no matter how many times I say it is "advanced analysis" and explain the greater detail of the trade. I will always get people who do not understand that these are "above and beyond" the standard set-ups and as such get a hard time for trying to show more advanced trades.....

Oh well.............. :o

So better that I keep my advanced analysis to myslef........... ;)

Steve

[jjc]

ES reached hod in 2 impulse waves of equal length, then collapsed in a 5 wave sequence that exhausted in the projected zone (wave 5 between 1:1 and 1:1.382 of wave 1). the bounce then exceeded a .786 rtc of wave 5.


edfash, i like the looks of that 1600t chart but you often post other time frames - is this the main chart u look at?

[TreeShaker]

Me too...I've tried to make this trade show up and it won't. I guess its my data feed (TS). I suppose we can think of some other things for TS other than Tradestation.

Gillian

So the signal was not "on the chart," you typed it in later for us to see?

It was on my chart. NT with AMP data feed.

[G Fryer]

Again, this is why I don't like posting any advanced analysis, because no matter how many times I say it is "advanced analysis" and explain the greater detail of the trade. I will always get people who do not understand that these are "above and beyond" the standard set-ups and as such get a hard time for trying to show more advanced trades.....

Oh well.............. :o

So better that I keep my advanced analysis to myslef........... ;)

Steve

I got it, but you could have just said what you did.

G

[edfash]

jjc-yes that is my trading chart in the es (1600 tick). i complement it with a 3200, 5 and 15 Min. it is fast enough for wave structure to be easily seen, yet slow enough to avoid too much noise. combined with the slightly longer 3200, it is great for DP trades. larry uses an almost identical chart (1597 t). i prefer tick or volume charts to minute charts, although i guess steve would not agree with this.

[TreeShaker]

I got it, but you could have just said what you did.

G

The trade setup is on pg 8 of Intro to MTP and the auto trade set-uos manual/report.

[Steve Griffiths]

The trade setup is on pg 8 of Intro to MTP and the auto trade set-uos manual/report.

Brilliant................. that is what I was after, somebody who has taken the time to read the manual

Well done, go straight to the top of the class !!

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

although i guess steve would not agree with this.

I am happy as long as you are making money ;)

Steve

[jjc]

jjc-yes that is my trading chart in the es (1600 tick). i complement it with a 3200, 5 and 15 Min. it is fast enough for wave structure to be easily seen, yet slow enough to avoid too much noise. combined with the slightly longer 3200, it is great for DP trades. larry uses an almost identical chart (1597 t). i prefer tick or volume charts to minute charts, although i guess steve would not agree with this.

thanks edfash, im going to give that a try along with my old favorite 5min for trigger

on esignal you can use a 'pc' for tick charts which cut out even more noise - i have no idea if u can do that with ninja

thx and c ya at the bell

[edfash]

here's the same 5 wave sequence in the ER.

[Larry22]

Today's chart of the ER2.

You can see why I was a buyer this morning, we were on a daily retracement. :D

Laurent

[TreeShaker]

ES reached hod in 2 impulse waves of equal length, then collapsed in a 5 wave sequence that exhausted in the projected zone (wave 5 between 1:1 and 1:1.382 of wave 1). the bounce then exceeded a .786 rtc of wave 5.

Did you enter a trade there based on the 5 wave cycle ending in the zone. Divergence was not there so there wasn't any other support for an entry, other than an MTP signal of DP.

[d-day]

Today's chart of the ER2.

You can see why I was a buyer this morning, we were on a daily retracement. :D

Laurent

here's the same 5 wave sequence in the ER.


Thanks for the great posts today, Ed and Laurent!

I have a question regarding the wave count on the decline. I see the 5 waves down, and I also seem to see three waves up after the decline off the HOD. Now, is itnot the case, in Elliot terms, that 5 waves will occur in the direction of the trend of one higher degree. So would you look at this mornings rally as corrective, and thus, are you expecting the imnent resumption of a downtrend of some larger degree?

Thanks again to both of you> I have learned a great deal from studying the charts you post.

David

[Larry22]

Thanks for the great posts today, Ed and Laurent!

I have a question regarding the wave count on the decline. I see the 5 waves down, and I also seem to see three waves up after the decline off the HOD. Now, is itnot the case, in Elliot terms, that 5 waves will occur in the direction of the trend of one higher degree. So would you look at this mornings rally as corrective, and thus, are you expecting the imnent resumption of a downtrend of some larger degree?

Thanks again to both of you> I have learned a great deal from studying the charts you post.

David

Interesting question, I would be tempted to say yes because on the ER2 we have a double ABC pattern, but unfortunately I cannot say for sure that we made a 5 wave decline it would seems on my 610 tick but again the daily pattern has a higher degree. So we could be heading higher and make more double ABC's. There is no end to these cycles until target clusters area are reached .

One thing I know in the ES we are probably in wave 4 up we seems to have a 5 wave up so 1 wave up could be missing to make an ABC but it could also be a three drive pattern (5 waves) as you know. So my count is still open and favoring the upside temporarely. I forgot to mention that we have reached the 38 % retracement from the top on the ES so if we don't pass that then see next line.

The market should draw us waves that I hope should help me, of course if we fail to go higher then today's high it won't look good.

I have learned that wave counts are not allways as clear as we would like, so I allways keep an alternate opposite wave count just in case.

Laurent

[jjc]

i know totally squat about EW and SQ9 but i kinda figured if we held 1316 today on the spx thers prolly a slim chance we cud then rally back to 1364

[tar001]

yeah that was a bit ridiculous,I though the idea of this forum was to share ideas. even if I did take that trade so what? as you said yesterday its my money and if I did take it the loss would have been very small in relation to my profits and I thought that was what trading was about. NOBODY knows where this market is going during the day, it is all about probabilities and if you are wrong to take your loss and wait for the next setup as it occurs. Like this one. I did not take the first couple on the 3 minute because the pattern looked like crap and the MACDBB was pointing DOWN


dang tar001, you got chewed out big time...consider yourself on time out

[jjc]

yeah that was a bit ridiculous,I though the idea of this forum was to share ideas. even if I did take that trade so what? as you said yesterday its my money and if I did take it the loss would have been very small in relation to my profits and I thought that was what trading was about. NOBODY knows where this market is going during the day, it is all about probabilities and if you are wrong to take your loss and wait for the next setup as it occurs. Like this one. I did not take the first couple on the 3 minute because the pattern looked like crap and the MACDBB was pointing DOWN

can you say 'damage control' ?

hang in ther buddy and keep asking questions ... some old fool once said 'the only dumb question is the one you didnt ask'...me

i figure it this way, since you paid big bux for this software ur entitled to ask what you want

c ya at the bell

[tar001]

the real question is did anybody short this here? that was a great trade if you did, I did short the ER as I said but I covered quickly(a couple points though) as this market was surely going to close green


can you say 'damage control' ?

hang in ther buddy and keep asking questions ... some old fool once said 'the only dumb question is the one you didnt ask'...me

i figure it this way, since you paid big bux for this software ur entitled to ask what you want

c ya at the bell

[Steve Griffiths]

Guys

The only reason I was a bit harsh earlier was that I care that you all make money...

And if I see somebody overtrading and taking less than ideal set-ups, then I feel I must step in.

I could just stand aside and do nothing, but that would not help at all

So again, I apologize if I was a bit harsh, but I just care when I see something silly going on..........

Steve

[tar001]

By the way here was my thinking on that, if you look at the text on this chart you have a DP at A(where I went long) then you have B which offered no resistance at all, C where I almost panicked and sold because the MACDBB turned red and the STF was red/black once we busted through that(I used the ATR to stay long) I figured we would hit D which we did. Since the market was strong I figured that the C DP would then act as support for those that missed the impulse move to D and they would go long driving the market back up to infinity(haha) the ONLY thing that kept me out was I looked at the MACDBB and it was red and pointing down so I steered clear after I posted it


the real question is did anybody short this here? that was a great trade if you did, I did short the ER as I said but I covered quickly(a couple points though) as this market was surely going to close green

[Larry22]

Guys

The only reason I was a bit harsh earlier was that I care that you all make money...

And if I see somebody overtrading and taking less than ideal set-ups, then I feel I must step in.

I could just stand aside and do nothing, but that would not help at all

So again, I apologize if I was a bit harsh, but I just care when I see something silly going on..........

Steve

Yup yup I agree, I sure don't like see people loosing money for nothing, specially when you just banked good profits.

I was happy to see tar having succeeded in banking very nice profits today and hoping that he would not overtrade.

At least tar you kept an eye on that MACDDB to help find the trend and not take too many contertrends that's a very good start.

Keep it up.

Laurent

[tar001]

oops forgot the chart
:D


By the way here was my thinking on that, if you look at the text on this chart you have a DP at A(where I went long) then you have B which offered no resistance at all, C where I almost panicked and sold because the MACDBB turned red and the STF was red/black once we busted through that(I used the ATR to stay long) I figured we would hit D which we did. Since the market was strong I figured that the C DP would then act as support for those that missed the impulse move to D and they would go long driving the market back up to infinity(haha) the ONLY thing that kept me out was I looked at the MACDBB and it was red and pointing down so I steered clear after I posted it

[tar001]

That is s great indicator, thanks! everyone should try it(well maybe not everyone as we all shouldn't be making the exact same trades)
:D


Yup yup I agree, I sure don't like see people loosing money for nothing, specially when you just banked good profits.

I was happy to see tar having succeeded in banking very nice profits today and hoping that he would not overtrade.

At least tar you kept an eye on that MACDDB to help find the trend and not take too many contertrends that's a very good start.

Keep it up.

Laurent

[tar001]

it was only silly because it didn't work. If it worked it would have been brilliant(in fact it would have made trade of the day on CNBC)
hahaha


Guys

The only reason I was a bit harsh earlier was that I care that you all make money...

And if I see somebody overtrading and taking less than ideal set-ups, then I feel I must step in.

I could just stand aside and do nothing, but that would not help at all

So again, I apologize if I was a bit harsh, but I just care when I see something silly going on..........

Steve

[jjc]

steve , i dont understand what you mean about 'over trading'

i get emails from matt every night on how he had a loss on so and so many trades but he took the next trade and it worked out to a net gain for the day because he didnt stop taking the next trade

ive even heard you say that before

could you explain that please

[tar001]

thats a good point, were the people that sold here(red arrow) and bought here(green arrow) over trading? as I said NOBODY knows where the market is going so in an up market you like to sell at resistance and buy at support(problem is of course which resistance and which support)


steve , i dont understand what you mean about 'over trading'

i get emails from matt every night on how he had a loss on so and so many trades but he took the next trade and it worked out to a net gain for the day because he didnt stop taking the next trade

ive even heard you say that before

could you explain that please

[jjc]

thats a good point, were the people that sold here(red arrow) and bought here(green arrow) over trading? as I said NOBODY knows where the market is going so in an up market you like to sell at resistance and buy at support(problem is of course which resistance and which support)


the 'after-the-fact' traders know exactly where support and resistance is/was

i'd love to see them post their real brokerage account ...of course that will never happen ( i can just hear all the reasons why they cant post that)

meant time, we do what we do and that is try to jump in front of 'smart money' (what ever that is)

[Larry22]

the 'after-the-fact' traders know exactly where support and resistance is/was

i'd love to see them post their real brokerage account ...of course that will never happen ( i can just hear all the reasons why they cant post that)

meant time, we do what we do and that is try to jump in front of 'smart money' (what ever that is)

You are right about that, you can trade all the signals you want. When I post some charts I try to do it so people can see and understand and learn why I did the trade, like this morning but this takes a lot of my time so I can't allways post the chart while I trade. I did it once but probably will never do it again as it seems that not too many people were interested as why I bought and why the market went up so quickly. Of course the trade could have been a loss, everytime we trade we deal with probabilities. So I know the risk, that's why I do not make a lot of trades sometimes 2 it can go up to 4 trades a day as I try to pick those that will give me the best potential for my buck, I don't need a lot of cash as I have other incomes.

Lastly I will post an hourly chart of the ES showing why I was also expecting a day up, that chart has been sent to someone (near the opening time) who can confirm that I was expecting support at this level why simple we were at a DP were at 2,62 % from the first wave down and were at the 62% retraceement level from the last leg up.

I hope this can show that trading is a full time job, you need to do your homework and believe in what you see, then all you have left to do is stick to your game plan until you're stopped or take profits at a targeted area.

Last thing, allmost everything I know I have learned it the hard way.
I started daytrading 20 years ago, the technology wasn't quite what we had, I lost a lot of money because I din't had the tools and the knowledge. Now I'm just taking back what the market took from me years ago, but it's easier because I have a lot of tools to see where the market is heading.

Laurent

[tar001]

Larry I honestly don't think he was referring to you. You know sometimes I post trades like I did today to get input from others on trades that might occur like that in the future. Other times I post them(like I did today) to slow myself down so I don't over trade. Trading is very tough at times and its easy to get caught up in the moment and trade too much. In hindsight I should have sold my long and waited for a GOOD pullback and a real setup to get back in (if I so chose too) Steve was probably right in his approach bet certainly not in his delivery. I don't know about you but I would NEVER call one of my customers silly.


You are right about you all can trade all the signals you want. When I post some charts I try to do it so people can see and undersatnd and learn why I did the trade like this morning but this takes a lot of my time so I can't allways post the chart while I trade. I did it once but probably will not do it again as it seems that not too many people were interested as why I bought and why the market went up so quickly. Of course the trade could have been a loss, evrytime we trade we deal with probabilities. So I know the risk, that's why I do not make a lot of trades sometimes 2 rarely 4 trades a day as I try to pick those that will give me the best potential for my buck, I don't need a lot of cash as I have other incomes.

Lastly I will post an hourly chart of the ES showing why I was also expecting a day up, that chart has been sent to someone (near the opening time) who can acknowledge that I was expecting support at this level.

I hope this can show that trading is a full time job you need to do your homework and believe in what you see, then all you have left to do is stick to your game plan until you're stopped or take profits at a targeted area.

Laurent

[tar001]

I want one of them after the fact accounts
:D


the 'after-the-fact' traders know exactly where support and resistance is/was

i'd love to see them post their real brokerage account ...of course that will never happen ( i can just hear all the reasons why they cant post that)

meant time, we do what we do and that is try to jump in front of 'smart money' (what ever that is)