US Markets: Real-time Trading

[d-day]

I took half off at 1411.50. And that's the last time I let ES get back above 1414.50 with me still aboard.


Update: I'm out. But I think the drop may not be over. There are two big gaps lower begging to be filled. I think I might be using some of my profits to nibble on some ES puts.

[ClaphamTrader]

Here's the one minute ES M7 screenshot - ES now testing 1417.50 as resistance - might need to give it room back to test the trendline above.
Nice call David!
Unfortunately my PC is not well and wy TS8 feed is well delayed.:mad:
I'm calling it a day with +1R. Not much but better than a kick in the teeth.:D
See you all soon.

[d-day]

This is a tough day. The market has spent most of the day drifting in "no man's land," doing its best to steer clear of recognizable support and resistance areas where higher probability/lower risk trades can be initiated.

My one loss today was the result of me trying to enter in this no man's land.


My trading would be a whole lot less stressful if I could discipline myself to just wait for set-ups that occur near a definitive price landmark instead of chasing trades in no man's land. The only no man's land trades that ever work for me are the MTP routines.

It is amazing how quickly a tricky day can become a whole lot less tricky if you wait for the market to come to you. Of course, I'll forget this lesson once again before I press the enter key on this post;)

[d-day]

Did anyone take the TS4 YM short off the 5 minute chart just prior to the swoon?

Using the ATR stop would have gotten a 20k account about a 2.6R gain at 2% risk for about a 1K profit. But open trade equity would have been over 6R at one point ... and shame on anyone who would let a 2.4k profit shrink to a "mere" 1k.

That TS4 occurred right after the YM made a marginal new high on a test of the prior high and within a whisker of DP resistance with dwindling momentum that you didn't need an oscilator to see.

[davidh]

David - eyeballed it but it didn't look like a valid TS4 to me, unless I'm missing something?

[pegasus5]

I must say that I got caught off guard with this latest move, so congrats to everyone who got a piece of it...wish I had. I've been experimenting with 1000V bar chart in ER (AB) and here is today's result. 1 short trade...1 win..fairly large...This TS4 did indeed caught the brisk move down...Here is the chart...Oh, I'm still using March contract because of historical data..June contract doesn't have it yet for 1000V bar chart..

[d-day]

TS1 Short on the 5 minute ER2, waiting for colored reversal bar.

Update: There it is, but looking at the time, I'll stand aside on this one.

[pegasus5]

Same setup fired on 1000V chart..I took it @ 789.60 w/ 790.60 stp..

Keeping short leash given time of day....moved to B/E stop

I'm covered ER..quick +2R at eod..I'm finished...Maybe I should have held??

[d-day]

Same setup fired on 1000V chart..I took it @ 789.60 w/ 790.60 stp..

Keeping short leash given time of day....moved to B/E stop

Pegasus,

Would you mind posting a screenshot of the set-up on the 1000v chart?

Thank you,

David

[pegasus5]

Sure..Here is is..There is no STF yet...Very clean looking pattern

[qitrader]

Funny. I caught that too at 789.50. HEHEHE

Total: +2R for the day

[jjc]

D Day,

Did you read my post on how to do a volume chart using Esignal?

If not, in the interval section add a V = 1000v


Hope that helps,

j

[d-day]

Hi J,

Yes, I read it, and thank you. I admit that I never even heard of volume charts before last night! I just wanted to see how it looked in TS.

Also, e-signal has been very slow to load the v-charts for me.

Pegasus, I think you may be onto something here applying MTP to the v-charts. From what ittle I have been able to see, v-chart MTP signals seem very accurate, and especially so where both the v-chart and the regular bar chart confirm one another by giving the same signal simultaneously (they do not always confirm one another). Again, this is just from going back through the charts. I have not yet utilized the v-charts in real time. It certainly deserves further study.

[pegasus5]

David,

At first blush, it is certainly worthy of consideration and additional study. I posted some paper trading results in YM 5000V last evening. I took snapshot of spreadsheet. You might want to review that posting....I did in fact take that ER TS3 short @ days end for a quick +2R. But my initial work shows fewer signals but higher percentage wins...not sure what that all implies, if anything...I'll continue to do additional studies..

Cheers,
David

[Todd Morgan]

Just FYI guys my experience with eSig is that Tick charts at least are wildly inaccurate and arbitrary and differ from machine to machine. Everyone on our desk used to have different values and different looking charts all the while using the same tick value.

I don't know if this applies to Volume charts as well. I but thought I give the heads-up anyway.

[billm]

Hello all,

I have used 'constant volume bar' charts and 'constant tick bar' charts since they became available in early 1990's software with greatly improved results over the vanilla standard of 1-60 minute bar charts. Needless to say, you will find the quality of data you use an important factor. My experience indicates Trading Technologies has the best data, followed very closely by CQG. The latter, CQG, has the additional advantage of offering a complete GUI. Both vendors have an API to pump data into other applications. It would be great if MTP accepted this higher quality data ;-)

billm

[Todd Morgan]

I too used Trading Technolgies for years. And I currently use CQG as my execution platform. They definitely are hands down the best and most widely used platforms for professional traders around the world.

I would personally love it if Steve could write to CQG's API. I would get rid of eSignal so fast it would make their heads spin.:D

Hello all,

I have used 'constant volume bar' charts and 'constant tick bar' charts since they became available in early 1990's software with greatly improved results over the vanilla standard of 1-60 minute bar charts. Needless to say, you will find the quality of data you use an important factor. My experience indicates Trading Technologies has the best data, followed very closely by CQG. The latter, CQG, has the additional advantage of offering a complete GUI. Both vendors have an API to pump data into other applications. It would be great if MTP accepted this higher quality data ;-)

billm

[d-day]

Good Morning, all.

[qitrader]

GM...

Anyone short ER2 on DP based on 15min?

[gkinlaw]

Nice TS2 trade on the V chart on ES2, but low r/r. I didn't see the trade on any other charts

[d-day]

Hi there.I've not done anything yet today. I had one of those nights/mornings where life intrudes and I didn't have a chance to do my normal prep routines before the open. Nice short off the open - wish I hadn't missed it.

[qitrader]

Quiet board. Everyone must be making alot of $$$. :)

Currently short ABC setup on 5min ER2 793.10

Good trading all

[Todd Morgan]

I was just short the YM 3min TS3 at 8:39PST. Just bailed for whopping .8R

[qitrader]

I will be applying a time stop if this does not move in my favor by 1pm. Probably lunch hour, hence the poor action. But, you never know.

update: took a loss -1R

[d-day]

I was AWOL from my desk when the most obvious set-up so far today occurred - that is to short the world at the open.

I'm quite willing to sit on my hands until the market puts itself in another high-probability situation, which right now means I'd like to see it trade up to or down to the morning's high or low before commiting myself to a position.

[Todd Morgan]

David,

Are you shorting the high retest on the ER2?

I took short off the er2 1min at 794.2. I hate shorting the strongest market on the board. :D



I was AWOL from my desk when the most obvious set-up so far today occurred - that is to short the world at the open.

I'm quite willing to sit on my hands until the market puts itself in another high-probability situation, which right now means I'd like to see it trade up to or down to the morning's high or low before commiting myself to a position.

[d-day]

David,

Are you shorting the high retest on the ER2?

Sorry for the delay, Todd. Yes, I'm short the ER2. Stop is 795.3 (a few ticks out of the "noise", and I might add more if this 1 minute bear flag breaks in my direction.

I will also market order out to cut the loss shorter than my resting stop if momentum looks like it is coming into the market.

[d-day]

I will also market order out to cut the loss shorter than my resting stop if momentum looks like it is coming into the market.

Scratch that, I'll let my stop ride. My gut tells me that the high is in for the day and I'll let this one "breath" up to my stop. But if profits start to accrue, I will protect them ferociously.

Update: shorted a couple more at 793.6 - stop loss on those is at 795.3 also. and I'll add to shorts on a break of 793 but stop loss will be tighter on those..

[qitrader]

Nice one. I guess I should had waited for that ABC fake out. Oh well

[d-day]

I'd like to see ER2 back under 792.10 soon or I'd be willing to lock in partial profits.

[Todd Morgan]

Big temptation to scale out a bit at that 92.10 support. But I'm using only .35% bet size so I only got off an 8 clip. Might as well hold it all and let it ride.

[d-day]

If you watch the 1 minute chart (ER2) you can see thses little bear flags breaking down one after the other.

I have staggered the stops in a stair-stepped down maner to take profits.Update: 792.8-793 would be a decent place to set a stop


Update: And as I hit enter on this posts original comment I heard the dull thud of my stop getting hit.

So I'm flat, and maybe I'm out early, but I'm happy. I do think probabilities favor a re-test of yesterday's close, and maybe even this mornings lows. Maybe we'll get a TS1 on a retracement here and I'll re-short.

[Todd Morgan]

Drats!! ATR stop at 92.80 for 2.1R

Oh well, nice lunch time trade anyway.

[d-day]

ER2 breaking down nicely here (if you're short - I guess it's getting ugly if you're long!)


But it better get under 91.50 soon.

Are you still short, Todd?

[Todd Morgan]

Nope....wish I was. I took the ATR stop 92.80.:( :( :( :(


ER2 breaking down nicely here (if you're short - I guess it's getting ugly if you're long!)

.
But it better get under 91.50 soon.

Are you still short, Todd?

[ClaphamTrader]

Nice one!
I'm Short ER2 with you.:D
My target 789.70.
If it hit's I've got my weekly target and having an early day.

Update: Well didn't quite get there. Out at 791.90 on the pullback.
Looks like I'm here a little longer.

Update2 : :-( So now it decides to hit the target.

[d-day]

I hate shorting the strongest market on the board. :D

The best trades are often the ones that feel the hardest, e.g. shorting the strongest market of the day at its high. If you're a breakout trader, then this is insanity. However, if you're a fade trader, i.e. sell highs and buy lows, then this is your bread and butter. I have often found that as the breakout traders' stops are being hit to propel the market that I am already in the trade because I bought (or sold) at the other end of the range and thus I was already positioned on the right side of an ensuing trend day.

[ClaphamTrader]

DP reversal on 233 tick ER2 at 18:39
In on next bar at 790.30
StopLoss 789.60

Target 793.00 DP Area for 3.8R

18:54 - Stopped out for -1R

[Todd Morgan]

Turtle soup for sure. BO traders getting bulltrapped. You definitely speak the truth. I've seen it again and again. Still my nature is to buy the strong and sell the weak.

But I've seen countless times how the ER2 and NQ are the strong and then suddenly become the weak. The high beta with those markets is just something not to be ignored.


The best trades are often the ones that feel the hardest, e.g. shorting the strongest market of the day at its high. If you're a breakout trader, then this is insanity. However, if you're a fade trader, i.e. sell highs and buy lows, then this is your bread and butter. I have often found that as the breakout traders' stops are being hit to propel the market that I am already in the trade because I bought (or sold) at the other end of the range and thus I was already positioned on the right side of an ensuing trend day.

[d-day]

Looks like we all bailed too early on that short ER2.

It's turning into one of the trades that can make 20K account a 50% return in the space of an hour or two with pryamiding.

I'd be up nearly 10R on just my original position if I were still short. I'd be up over 20R or +13% for the day if I still had on the whole position that I stopped out for about 2.3R.

Didn't Livermore say that it wasn't the thinking but the siting that made him his big money?

[d-day]

ER2 testing yesterday's close as resistance, do we go higher, or will this extend lower toward the close. I'm tempted to short this thing again if it fails to sustain itself back above yesterday's close.

[d-day]

This may sound crazy, but the ER2 may actually be a buy.



Update: Long ER2 at 788.3 with a 787.9 stop. I'll give it 5 minutes or so (unless I'm stopped out) to get back above 789.50 (and it better stay there, or I'm out).

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

AB just reached the opposing DP level from the DP sell at 12:30EST........... nice +6R profit :)

Steve

[pegasus5]

Hi Guys,

I'm on the road today...stopped to logon to see the action. Which Poster did I authorize to trade my account today in my absence? David? Tomb? CT? Qi? Well, whomever, I know you made me lots of $$$ in my absence...I'll collect next week!!:) :)

Looks like you all caught some nice setups...Don't get any of my winnings back!!

Everyone, enjoy your weekends!!

[Todd Morgan]

I've been a professional trader since '88. I've read Reminiscences probably 10 times.

My takeway from that has always been "ring the cash register," and don't go bust. And don;t keep handguns close when you're on SERIOUS losing streak.
;)


Didn't Livermore say that it wasn't the thinking but the siting that made him his big money?

[d-day]

well, that's that.

[qitrader]

I wish I was in this trade but I have a feeling it may break yesterday's low. Good trade everyone!!! My trading mojo not too hot today. Maybe lack of sleep. Down 1R.

Maybe I will find something to short in late afternoon.

[d-day]

Hi Guys,

AB just reached the opposing DP level from the DP sell at 12:30EST........... nice +6R profit :)

Steve

I didn't even see that DP set-up. I had higher DP's on my chart (e.g. the DP taken off the 9:33AM bar. I usually forget to check for the more nearby DP's like this one. I think I need another post-it to remind to check for these as well.

[qitrader]

Steve,

Is there a way to draw multiple DP levels on Esignal? I know that in TS, this is not possible. I wonder if this will be possible in Ninja trader.

[d-day]

Long again 787.30 (ER2) stop is now BE. Let's see if ER2 has any gas in the tank for a profitable bounce.

Update: It better get back above 789.50 in a hurry

Update: Now that's more like it.

Update: Out at 789.30 I got my money back from my last mistake, and then some. It may still have gas in the tank, but I'm done.


Looks like a little one minute bull flag.

[ClaphamTrader]

Looks like if I set my ATR ratchet to 0 like Matt suggests, I would've been on riding the ER2 a bit further.:(
Up around +2.5R today after commission.:)
Enough for me.
Have a good weekend y'all and see you next week.

[Todd Morgan]

Nice nimble trade.


Long again 787.30 (ER2) stop is now BE. Let's see if ER2 has any gas in the tank for a profitable bounce.

Update: It better get back above 789.50 in a hurry

Update: Now that's more like it.

Update: Out at 789.30 I got my money back from my last mistake, and then some. It may still have gas in the tank, but I'm done.


Looks like a little one minute bull flag.

[jjc]

Long again 787.30 (ER2) stop is now BE. Let's see if ER2 has any gas in the tank for a profitable bounce.

Update: It better get back above 789.50 in a hurry

Update: Now that's more like it.

Update: Out at 789.30 I got my money back from my last mistake, and then some. It may still have gas in the tank, but I'm done.


Looks like a little one minute bull flag.

D-Day,

I'm watching and learning, keep up the good work ! :)

have a good weekend

j

[qitrader]

I am waiting for ABC short to trigger on ER2

[qitrader]

I'm short ER2 at 790

Oh well,

update: Total = -1.2R for the day

Have a nice weekend everyone.

[d-day]

D-Day,

I'm watching and learning, keep up the good work ! :)

have a good weekend

j

You have a great weekend, too, J. By the way, it was something I learned from you that caused me to take that long scalp on the ER2.

Everyone have a safe, fun, family and friend filled weekend, and I'll see you all Monday morning.

And thanks again to Steve and his MTPredictor team for a great software program, and for putting up with our shenanigans day after day!

Be well,

David

[d-day]

Steve,

Is there a way to draw multiple DP levels on Esignal? I know that in TS, this is not possible. I wonder if this will be possible in Ninja trader.


Yes Qi, in e-signal you can have multiple DP's on one chart at the same time.

I'll try to post a chart for you before the bell Monday if not over the weekend.

[d-day]

And don't keep handguns close when you're on SERIOUS losing streak.
;)


LOL - Let's hope none of us ever suffer a drawdown that bad!

[d-day]

Well that was about the pretiest bear flag on the ES I ever did see, but I didn't have an order in to go short because I was expecting it to fill the gap back to Friday's close. It looks like we're gong to visit Friday's lows. The question is then do we rally off that low or do we slice through it and visit other prior lows?

We'll see.

[d-day]

Short the es at 1412.75 stop 1414.25

[gkinlaw]

Esignal's message says they are having problems with the time change. charts are off by 1 hr.

[d-day]

well that's that.
Sure fooled me.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

That is why I use my own custom time settings........ rather than relying on the eSignal default ...

Steve

[Matt Bowen]

Looks like eSignal may have dropped the ball on their servers with the time Change ;)

***Daylight Savings Time***

Beginning in 2007, daylight saving time (DST) will be extended in the United States. DST will start on March 11, 2007, which is three weeks earlier than usual, and it will end on November 4, 2007, which is one week later than usual. If you are not sure if your PC is ready to go you can check with the Microsoft webpage below:

http://support.microsoft.com/gp/cp_dst

In August of 2005, the United States Congress passed the Energy Policy Act. The Energy Policy Act changes the start dates and the end dates of daylight saving time (DST). When this law goes into effect in 2007, DST will start three weeks earlier on March 11, 2007 and end one week later on November 4, 2007. These dates are referred to in this article as the "extended DST period."

[jands]

Hi David and everyone,

Ya'll have been so good about helping out and posting on the forum I just wanted to throw in my two cents worth about things that I have observed and try to trade by. (BTW I am still learning a lot.)

This morning until about 10:35 EST each bar on the 3 and 5 min timeframe spent a good deal of time retracing. Each bar had significant retracement by each successive bar. When this is happening, at least for my trading style, my failure rate goes up a great deal. And I have learned, and still learn on occassion to stand aside and wait for things to clear up.

At 10:35 was the beginning of a move that was much clearer and for an aggressive trader allowed for a possible entry on the 1 min timeframe at 11:00. Depending on which indicator you would use to show divergence.

So for me if each bar is being retraced a good percentage, (over 50-60%), I stand aside and wait for things to clear up.

Hope this helps,

Jim

Hi Everyone,

Here is the chart that I promised about when I tend to stay out of trades.

If you can't read the text let me know and I will post it.

Hope this helps and good luck,

Jim

[d-day]

Hi Everyone,

Here is the chart that I promised about when I tend to stay out of trades.

If you can't read the text let me know and I will post it.

Hope this helps and good luck,

Jim

Hi Jim, thanks for the chart. So you would proabably have stayed flat during this first 1:15 of trading today, correct?

[d-day]

So far I lost $400 on the 1st short trade (I though the ES was heading to Friday's low), and then I made most of it back on the TS3 short of the 5000v ES chart. That trade should probably still be open but I feel better working from breakeven or better.

Very narrow range and very choppy today. I'll be keeping my finger off of the enter button until a more clear picture arises, i.e. this thing breaks from this range and starts to trend or we trade up to or down to a prior low. Right now we're stuck right smack dab in the middle of no man's land.

[jands]

Hi David,

At the end of the 0950 bar I would have started looking for setups again and then we went back into congestion at 1010 (1010 is when I realized we went back into congestion). Then I would have stood aside until 1021 where I did have a signal on the 1 minute chart but it was not a good-enough quality signal. So no trades for me today, so far...

PS. If I had gotten into a trade during the second period of congestion from 0950 to 1010 I would have probably stayed with it, but 10-15 mins into a trade I generally place a time stop on it and get out. ( I'm still refining that part of my startegy).

Jim

[pegasus5]

Recent swings have become narrower and narrower with STF transitioning from Blue, Neutral and now Red. I was considering longs this morning, but now I've taken a more neutral stance as the ranges have narrowed.

I'm currently standing aside and watching till patterns become much more clear.

David

[d-day]

Recent swings have become narrower and narrower with STF transitioning from Blue, Neutral and now Red. I was considering longs this morning, but now I've taken a more neutral stance as the ranges have narrowed.

I'm currently standing aside and watching till patterns become much more clear.

David

It's best to keep an open mind when the range narrows this much - it usually portends a big, swift move, but I don't know an indicator out there that will tell you wether that move will be up or down before it occurs.

[d-day]

That move does not have to occur today, either. The market can coil up for good while before the tension becomes too much and price springs into action.

[pegasus5]

Without question I'm keeping Open Mind and Flexible..ready to pull trigger. Low volatility usually portends larger volatile moves and I'm on guard. I huess I'm just not willing to make a directional bet right now...

[jands]

Yes, those are two very true statements.

Boy would I love to have the indicator that tells which way it would break out from congestion!!!:D

Jim

[d-day]

1412-1414.50 range on the es has contained price since 10:41. A breakout on above/below this range and then a successful retest as support/resistance could be the first indication as to where we may go from here. Of course, price could just build out a larger range back to Friday's highs and lows before a real move gets underway.

[d-day]

ES Chart as of 11:59 EDT

[d-day]

Another with but zoomed out a bit

[d-day]

long ES at 1414.75, stop 1414.25 - short leash on this one - I'll market order out at the blink of an eye.

[d-day]

I'm out 1415.75 This move seems tired already. I could be wrong, but who cares.

[AndyvB]

Great call David, on simple chart reading....

[d-day]

short the ES w/ very close stop


Out at Beak even, test of 1416.25 held too long

[d-day]

I ought to give my stops a chance to work for me. I've been bailing out too quick lately.

[d-day]

A couple folks have e-mailed me about what I meant by the bear flag near this mornings open. Here's a chart showing what I interpret to be a bear flag as well as the measured move off the prior swing high. I missed this trade as I was slow to place my entry stop order because I assumed the market was going to fill the gap back to Friday's close. Then, to make matters worse, I lose 1R by getting taking the trade late and not exiting per my rules for measured moves, which is to have a MIT order or stop order to close the position if the market trades to within one tick of the measured move target. I held on hoping for more and got stopped out for a loss.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

A nice TS3 buy here :)

Steve

[Todd Morgan]

It sure was. I got caught up in a problem with one of my other trading systems and missed this. Grrrrr. :mad:

YMM7 3 min was nice too.


Hi Guys,

A nice TS3 buy here :)

Steve

[d-day]

Hi Guys,

A nice TS3 buy here :)

Steve

That was nice!

I'm focusing on the ES today, and I didn't see this on the ER2. There was a nice buy on the ES but I passed due to the STF being red at the time.

There's a nice TS3 short on the 5 minute ES that is working at the moment also.

[qitrader]

I'm still flat. I saw the ABC ER2 but didn't take it as it was not coming from a major pivot.

Glad to see it working now

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Not sure why you all are focusing on just one market........... all this does is make you miss some great trades on others, that is why we have the scanner in the software - so you don't miss trades.............

Today has had some great trades so it is such a shame to miss them, especially when they are all found automatically by the software...........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Here is another great one on the YM, just begging to be picked up by you all............... :)

Steve

[d-day]

YM DP short trade short from 12394 with a '99 stop.




Update - If the YM does not soon get in gear to the downside, and if I am not yet stopped out, I will exit regardless of price at 2:15

[qitrader]

I"m in Long from 792.60 off 5min ABC setup at 155pm. Hope some of you got it from the automatic setups.

[Steve Griffiths]

3min YM now at 7x profit using the ATR stop.............

As always, just keep it simple and trade the set-ups :)

Steve

[pegasus5]

I didn't see a clear divergence at the YM DP level. I decide to take a Breakout Signal through 12399. Supporting this decision is Blue STF, and positive momentum oscillators. -chart

Sold 1/2 Long position @ 12439 which corresponds with 3/9 highs.....trailing balance with ATR Stop

[Steve Griffiths]

WOW...........

3min YM now at 10x profit, yes that is a $400 initial risk into nearly $4,000 open profit - all off a standard TS3 buy set-up then managed using the ATRStop.................

KISS - Keep It Simple is always the best way

Steve :)

[qitrader]

Great Trade Steve!!!

Did you happen to catch the ER2 setup as well?

[Steve Griffiths]

Seriously Guys,

I would strongly suggest keeping things simple and not trying to over think or over analyse the markets, as you have seen this can result in losses. That is why I developed the MTPredictor approach, simple trade set-ups that do their job of controling the initial risk and maximising the profits.

This YM example - a 10x profit has been a perfect example of this........... So seriously Guys, KISS - keep it simple, you will all be far better off as a result :)

Steve

[pegasus5]

I'm stopped out on balance of YM 5 min @ 12423 for a total of +5.5R. Trade layout below in chart.

[stylist]

I see on your 5 minutes ym chart picture that your stf multiplier setting is on 5 instead of 3 thats the reason that you had red stf on the ts1 buy signal
I dont have that ts1 siganl i wish i had

[pegasus5]

OK..I adjusted to multiplier of 3 and yes indeed the STF is more neutral, which then I would have considered the setup.

Though the STF ver2 multiplier is set to 5 as default. Perhaps Steve could shed some light on what value is best to use in this case.

Steve?

[Steve Griffiths]

The YM trade was on the 3min chart and not the 5min.

But what a trade................. :)

Steve

[stylist]

When you are trading the 3 and 5 minute charts you want to trade in the direction of the 15 minutes chart so on the 3 minutes chart you should leave the multiplier with the default setting 5 because 15 divine 3 is 5
On the 5 minutes charts change it to 3 which is 15 divine 5

[Matt Bowen]

I have to agree with Steve... I have read this tread a few times and can't believe the amount of "cranium activity". If I had this many thoughts going on while trying to trade I'd most likely end up like the the picture below :eek:

I'm serious, I had people calling me up this morning using 5000 volume charts, 40 tick charts, exits on "time stops" and I'm sitting here going "What in the hell is going on here?" I can't possible fathom trying to make money this way.

If you can make money with this much "thinking" going on, then God bless you, because I've never seen it done in the 24 years I've been in the business. This is also why you don't see us posting charts "before" the trade... because I'm not going to screw-up my trades, I can't do 3 things at the same time: Find my trades/do analysis, fill my orders and post to the BB.

Like today... when I review the post I couldn't believe nobody was talking about the buy on the Dow at 10:00am EST (this trades lasted over 5 hours) and at 11:33 we had the second Dow trade (this one had an even better RR then the first trade). Next on the Russell there were 2 more good trades at 11:27 EST and 1:42 EST. Ok, sure there were some losses in here, but nowhere near the profits made on the winning trades.

But what do I know...I'm not using the latest in volume charts or tick charts :confused:

[pegasus5]

Thanks Stylist. I have made the respective adjustments.:) :)

[Steve Griffiths]

No, the STF does this automatically with the v2, ie STFv2, do NOT change the default settings.

Please email us here at support@MTPredictor.net for questions like this, as we know the software...............

Thanks

[pegasus5]

Thank Steve..I'm back to defaults ;)

[CapTech]

I was wondering when you might chime in Matt, but I am concerned with your in ability to multi-task during the trading day. Might I suggest some articles and books on this subject by Mrs Puffington Van Tharp. She is the adopted brother's wife's Aunt's Son's daughter of Mr. Van Tharp:) .....but you are right it's crazy..........Jim

[d-day]

just stopped out of the TS3 short ES on the 3 minute for the second time,
-2R on the day:mad: .

Awaiting the next signal to get it back;)

There goes a TS2 short on the 5 minute ER2

[d-day]

ER2 entry trigger 791.4, 792.8 stop loss, STF is black

[pegasus5]

Hi David,

I also got stopped out on same ES setup...Looking @ YM 5min TS3 Short setup..

Invalid setup based upon the 2+2 Rule

[d-day]

short ER2 from 791.40

[davidh]

Yep, me too David, stopped twice on the ES, now in the ER2, but that gap is maybe vacuuming the action upwards....

[d-day]

I agree. But I'm trying not to think about it;)

[jswin]

I agree that simplicity and focus are fundamental, but I do hope that the regular posters continue doing so. It does not hurt to be presented with a variety of ideas.

[jands]

Don't you just hate the days you get stopped out by one tick three times in a row!!!!!!!!!

[d-day]

If the reaction high is in, we may see a measured move down to 783.70 taken off yesterday's high or to 784.5 off yesterday's late noon reaction high.

If we are seeing the second downleg of a measured move, I'd take partial profits and tighten my stop if we see 784.50, and I'd have a limit order to close the rest at about 784.1

[qitrader]

Me too down -1R. Lets post some charts afterward so we can learn from our mistakes.

[d-day]

Don't you just hate the days you get stopped out by one tick three times in a row!!!!!!!!!


What did you get stopped out on?

[jands]

What did you get stopped out on?

Twice on the ES the same as you and I moved to BE on a ER2 short (not a MTP trade).

[qitrader]

Currently SHORT ER2 at 791.4. Monster trade is around the corner!!

[davidh]

There - I knew it would work out ;)

[d-day]

Please note I edited the measured move comment above - the target off the secondary high yesterday would be 784.50, NOT 787.60 as I had posted.

I was typing while glancing at some notes and I typed the wrong figure.

Also, there is nothing magical about measured moves - it is not writ in stone that the market must fulfill such targets.

[ClaphamTrader]

I passed on the ER2 short as I'm uncomfortable with the gap above (unfortunately I am thinking about it;) )
However got in on a 3 Min NQ short 1775.25 with Stop at 1778.

NQ is the only index that has filled the overhead gap so far today and has been weaker than the YM or ES in the recent falls.

Update: Working out nicely. ATR Stop now at 1776.50

15:50 update - ATRstop at 1774.50

[qitrader]

I smell too much "cranium activity" here. lol (no pun intended)

Current ATR stop at 791.80

[davidh]

Hi Clapham Trader,
What chart was it for the NQ short? - I don't seem to have it on esig
Thanks

[d-day]

I'm out. Back above yesterday's low is enough to shake me out of this trade. If the market is going to continue lower, it will let me back in.

[qitrader]

David,

Any reasons for exiting? I'm still holding and risk is dwindling which is a good thing. THe way I trade the ER2 is to try to catch the big move (4R or more) that happens once a day but will have small losses in between. So far I'm sending my little soldiers to battle and see if I can hit the jackpot.

[ClaphamTrader]

Hi Clapham Trader,
What chart was it for the NQ short? - I don't seem to have it on esig
Thanks
3 min NQM07
15:15 red bar gives TS3 Short
entry on next bar
I'm using TS

TS3 also triggered on the NQ 233 tick chart as well.

(sorry I haven't got the hand of posting images yet - my screen capture sw saves them as too large to upload).

[ClaphamTrader]

I smell too much "cranium activity" here. lol (no pun intended)

Current ATR stop at 791.80
To right!:D

[davidh]

Thanks CT,
I tried playing with the bar conditions in MTP and do get a TS4 short on that bar by disabling all

[d-day]

David,

Any reasons for exiting? I'm still holding and risk is dwindling which is a good thing. THe way I trade the ER2 is to try to catch the big move (4R or more) that happens once a day but will have small losses in between. So far I'm sending my little soldiers to battle and see if I can hit the jackpot.

Back above yesterday's lows was enough for me to take profits.

The market let me in when it broke back down out of the bear flag off its lows and I my stop is at BE.

As I said, if the market were to decide to go lower, it will let me back in.

[d-day]

I'm flat again and possibly looking to go long ER2

[qitrader]

So far so good. Hoping for my soldiers to return with something in hand.:D

[ClaphamTrader]

I passed on the ER2 short as I'm uncomfortable with the gap above (unfortunately I am thinking about it;) )
However got in on a 3 Min NQ short 1775.25 with Stop at 1778.
...
Update: Working out nicely. ATR Stop now at 1776.50

15:50 update - ATRstop at 1774.50

50% out at 1770.50 for +4.75 points
Reason - TS4 Buy formed on 3 min NQ and TS3 Buy on 5 min NQ

[d-day]

Now the question is - is this a bear flag waiting to break lower or will a bull flag drift lower and the market break higher?

Without thinking too much about it, the market will tell us, nudge, nudge ;) ;)


I'm long, and I may be wrong.

[d-day]

I'll feel better about staying long if we can clear 789.10

[d-day]

... and stay there:cool:

[d-day]

Can anyone guess why I covered my ER2 shorts and went long at 11:53?


I'm using ATR stop, currently 788.20, Im long from 787.90.


Update, I'm out.

for now.

If 787.70 holds I market order in for another bite of the ER2 apple with a fairly close stop.

Update: "Thar she blows!"

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Keep it simple............ here is the +2R that made up for the -2R on the ES form earlier.......... :)

Steve

[Todd Morgan]

I must admit David, Flags are becoming my new (old) favorite pattern, :D

[qitrader]

David,

I think you are taking too many trades and not letting your winners ride. Try using the ATR stop because it helps overrides other trades.

[jands]

All markets have exceeded yesterdays lows, so we could be making the "B" wave finally. Plus the STF's are all in the red. I'm just looking for short trades now.

Jim

[qitrader]

Out with +10.1 R.

Total=+9.1R

[Steve Griffiths]

Brilliant, at last somebody who is letting their profits run.................

Great trade...

Steve

As you say, let it run with the ATRStop :)

[qitrader]

Thanks Steve.

The ATR stop helped me override the other DP long setup. I think I should had held longer but can't go wrong with a +10R. It doesn't happen very often. I am pretty sure other elite traders are holding onto this trade. But as always, letting profits ride is what separates the elite from the other elite.

[ClaphamTrader]

50% out at 1770.50 for +4.75 points
Reason - TS4 Buy formed on 3 min NQ and TS3 Buy on 5 min NQ
Fortunately held onto the other 50%:)
Out remaining 50% at 1753.50

Total return on 1 trade: +4.8R
(half for +0.85R & half for +3.95R)

Reason: Ringing the till:) . Kerching! On a nice sunny day like this it's time to do some opf the things that I got into trading for in the first place.. like spend more time with the family.

It's days like this that I dream of - 1 Trade, nearly 10% up on the pot, take rest of the day off.:D

See you guys tomorrow! Hope your trades work out for the rest of the day.

[Steve Griffiths]

Well done Guys................. some great and very profitable trade here

Like you say " but can't go wrong with a +10R "

or

" It's days like this that I dream of - 1 Trade, nearly 10% up on the pot, take rest of the day off"

Again, well done, it is nice to see customers making such good profits :)

Steve

[ClaphamTrader]

Thanks Steve.

The ATR stop helped me override the other DP long setup. I think I should had held longer but can't go wrong with a +10R. It doesn't happen very often. I am pretty sure other elite traders are holding onto this trade. But as always, letting profits ride is what separates the elite from the other elite.

+10R - Magic!
Looks in hindsight like I should've held tight on the NQ ATR as well, but can't really complain.
See you!

[Todd Morgan]

Good observation. May be right. Worth keeping an eye on.

All markets have exceeded yesterdays lows, so we could be making the "B" wave finally. Plus the STF's are all in the red. I'm just looking for short trades now.

Jim

[d-day]

David,

I think you are taking too many trades and not letting your winners ride. Try using the ATR stop because it helps overrides other trades.


Thanks Qi,

Had that gap been filled, I would have played this much more aggressively, including adding to my position on the break of the bear flags at 11:42 and 12:06 (see a 3 minute chart).

With that gap up there, I was quick to take profits, and willling to stop and reverse. BTW, there was legitimate DP long trade right below yesterday's low.

Good trading!

[Matt Bowen]

Today is a perfect example of what MTPredictor is trying to teach people... and that is not to be "RIGHT", but "HOW TO MAKE MONEY...

There is a HUGE difference between the two...

This morning started off with two losing trades right out of the gate and then BAMM!!! a BIG winner. Just like we have been saying here all along, if you don't let your profits run your average profit per win will not cover your losses... this is business 101.

Now, the frustrated trader is probably out kicking the dog right now because he did not take the third trade. Yeah, after two losing short trades another one came up and guess what? It worked. Here is how it played out:

Trade #1 Short @ 10:30EST on 3 min chart result = stopped out -375.00 loss

Trade #2 Short @ 10:51EST on 3 min chart result = stopped out -375.00 loss

Trade #3 Short @ 11:12EST on 3 min chart result = ATR currently managing the short position (see chart) If stopped out righr now we walk away with a profit of $1350 on the current trade.

Do the math

Trade # 1 = loss -375.00
Trade # 2 = loss -375.00
Trade # 3 = current stop = +$1350
============================
Total Profit = +600.00

TRADING IS A BUSINESS... NOT A CRANIUM ACTIVITY

If you want to be mentally challenged... join MENSA http://www.mensa.org/

If you want to make money follow the rules! And Yes, I'm still short... where is it going? I have no idea, I'm not that smart....I'm just a trader.

[qitrader]

Matt,

Just wondering about your TS4 setups on ES, was it a DP trade with divergence? I didn't see a good ABC setup there.

Not that it matters much since it worked out at the end.

[d-day]

http://www.mensa.org/[/url]

Where I come from, "mentally challenged" is not something associated with MENSA.

nudge,nudge ;) ;)

D-Day
"Have Cranium, will travel .... and trade":p

[qitrader]

I turned my cranium cap on and now looking for an ABC short ER2. Stay tune

[jands]

Just a friendly reminder,

STICK TO YOUR TRADING PLAN!!!!

I got emtional and varied from my plan and got burned big time today even though the market performed to my expectations.

After reviewing what should have been a 7+ R day, I'm down 3+ R.

That's a big difference!

Just thought I'd share an important lesson with you that I have had to learn again today. And if you don't have a trading plan, GET ONE!!!

Hope everyone else did well,

Jim

[jjc]

Just a friendly reminder,

STICK TO YOUR TRADING PLAN!!!!

I got emtional and varied from my plan and got burned big time today even though the market performed to my expectations.

After reviewing what should have been a 7+ R day, I'm down 3+ R.

That's a big difference!

Just thought I'd share an important lesson with you that I have had to learn again today. And if you don't have a trading plan, GET ONE!!!

Hope everyone else did well,

Jim

Jim,

Share your trading plan. We loved to hear it.

j

[Matt Bowen]

For your patience, you are rewarded an additional $2350. for sitting in the trade and "NOT THINKING".

Do you see how the ATR managed the trade? This is why you have to understand your risk tolerance.
It does not pay to jump in and out of trades...

Not every day will offer these trades...so you have to control losses and ride the winners.

[jands]

Jim,

Share your trading plan. We loved to hear it.

j
Hi JJC,

If you read Van Tharp's book or are familiar with it I believe you would understand everyone needs a plan suited to themselves and their temperment. And to use someone else's would be a distraction and/or lead to confusion. I am aware that is how you learn by talking with others but since my plan is not completely MTP and has a few proprietary items in it, I think it would lead to confusion.

I don't want to be rude by not sharing, but I was using the forum as a place to hold myself accountable today and sharing my biggest lesson that I've had in a while.

Once again, good luck,

Jim

[jjc]

Cranium Test



Take your time and see if you can read each line aloud without a mistake. The average Stock Market Trader over 40 years of age can't do it!




1. This is this cat
2. This is is cat

3. This is how cat
4. This is to cat

5. This is keep cat
6. This is an cat

7. This is old cat
8. This is codger cat

9. This is busy cat
10. This is for cat

11. This is forty cat
12. This is seconds cat




Now go back and read the third word in each line from the top down.

If you passed this test you're qualified to trade the Stock Market.


:)


j

[davidh]

Great trade Matt, well done for staying the course. Can you tell us the basis for your entry?
Thanks

[mawk01]

Hey guys, first time poster here.....

From reading the above posts about the setups seen today on the 3min AB and ES, after looking at some of the attached charts of the trade, I don't see any of the early morning short setups on the ER and on the ES the only thing I see is the TS2 on teh ES 3 min at 1415 hrs. Any ideas and thanks in advance....

Forgot to mention using E-signal....

[Steve Griffiths]

The trade of the day was defiantly on the 5min AB...........

Short form the very high of the day (yes we nailed the exact high of the day :) ), to then run the trade all the way down using the ATR stop for a massive profit of approx 8x the initial risk (ignoring slippage and commission).

Or put another way, turned an initial risk of just $280 into a profit of just over $2,300 !!!

What a trade............

That is two massive trades in two days of +10R and +8R......... WOW

Steve

[qitrader]

Did anyone catch the 3min ABC short from 777.90? Working out nicely.
Triggered at 9:45 a EST

[garciaal]

Qi,
If you are in at 777.90 you got a killer trade going!
Alex

[qitrader]

Well, bad trading on my part. Instead of trailing my trade using ATR stop, I decided to take profits at a DP level and reverse my order to go long. Unfortunately, I got stopped out. I shouldn't have put my cranium cap on and over analyze the trade. If I have avoided the DP long, I would have had another +6R trade. Now only up +1R.

Lesson learnt and I hope you guys do too.

total=+1.2R

[davidh]

Qi,
What was the entry setup on your AB short?
Thanks

[qitrader]

Davidh,

777.90 was entry. THe ABC was not symmetrical so it involved a higher risk. Look at 3 minute chart.

[davidh]

Are you using MTP yet?

[Thales]

The market hasn't gone dead, but this thread sure has.

What happened?

[qitrader]

There was a burnout after so much cranium activity. :)

Anyone caught the DP Long on ER2? I didn't get filled . I set a buy limit to buy at 769.10 and the ER2 just shoot up. My mistake since it should had been a market order but not comfortable with afternoon slippage, hence the limit order. Need to keep my risk the same since a bad slippage might cause me to use more than 2% of equity.

Oh well. Next time

[Thales]

There was a burnout after so much cranium activity. :)

Anyone caught the DP Long on ER2? I didn't get filled . I set a buy limit to buy at 769.10 and the ER2 just shoot up. My mistake since it should had been a market order but not comfortable with afternoon slippage, hence the limit order. Need to keep my risk the same since a bad slippage might cause me to use more than 2% of equity.

Oh well. Next time

I went long at 767.70 but my stop is now very close, so I should be out soon.

[qitrader]

Very nice Thales. You seem to use Mtp differently from how it is taught by Steve. But congrats!! Stick to what works for you.

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep, a classic DP trade off the low of the day...........

Steve

[Thales]

Hi there, I was stopped out at 775.70

Up 7% just on that trade.

As a good buddy and fellow trader would say, "that's alot of loot!" LOL

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

A perfect DP trade, on clear divergence and reversed right at the DP level (which nailed the low of the day), then rallied into the opposing DP level for a profit of approx 4.6x the initial risk..........

Brilliant........ :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

We had a similar set-up on the 3min ES, with the added backing of support coming in at the larger degree 60min DP.

See charts

Steve

[d-day]

Very nice Thales. You seem to use Mtp differently from how it is taught by Steve. But congrats!! Stick to what works for you.


Careful there, Qi, or someone may wrongly take you to be encouraging freethinking.:rolleyes:

[d-day]

I went long at 767.70 but my stop is now very close, so I should be out soon.

So I'm not the only one who trades off 1 minute charts, I see.

[qitrader]

Sorry QiTrader,

but this post removed as it has nothing to do with MTPredictor trading.....

Steve

[davidh]

Morning Qi, thanks for that inspirational story!

[Thales]

This place sure has changed in the past few days. I was very excited about this forum.

[qitrader]

I violated one of my rules trading this DP short and that cost me 1R. Oh well.

Going to move on to the next trade.

[d-day]

Morning Qi, thanks for that inspirational story!

Too bad the rest of us will not be able to share in the inspiration. Perhaps you should have posted it under the trading psychology thread. I say perhaps, because I have no idea what it was about.

I will take a chance, however, on posting a quote from Linda Bradford Raschke's and Laurence Connors Street Smarts. This may be more appropriate to the trading psychology thread, but I'll take my chances:

"Traders talk amongst themselves, not necessarily to discuss bullish or bearish market opinions, but rather to share insights into the nature and quirkiness of this business. The mental toll trading exacts definitely forms bonds. When we open up it is always surprising to discover the similarity of lessons learned, experiences shared, and how we independently arrive at the same conclusions. Often in talking with each other we're really looking for clues into our own heads, hoping to understand ourselves a little bit better." from Street Smarts

MTPredictor, the company, not the software, is in a position to benefit greatly by allowing such "talk" to occur here in this forum. It in no way detracts from the value of the product. In fact, it heightens the value of being an MTPredictor user. Rather than coming on like a bulletin board gorilla and chastising folks for "thinking," of all things, and chasing them away, I would urge the good folks at MTPredictor to step back and make a sound and reasoned business judgment as to where the value of this forum lies. I know several folks who have purchased MTPredictor, and at least one waiting in the wings who has said he will be purchasing it, who decided to do so after speaking (not e-mail or IM but speaking) with me and other users who they found on this forum.

Posts on this forum should, perhaps, be judged more on to the extent to which they foster a sense of community, a forging of the bonds that Raschke and Connors note above in what may be the most simple yet eloquent and moving passage I have ever found written by trader in a book about trading. Therin lies the true value of this forum, both to MTPredictor, and to us, their customers.

That being said, this is Steve's forum, and I thank him for both the software he has developed and the forum he has created. I hope this post is allowed to stand, if only so folks may have a chance to read the Street Smarts quote above. I also hope that my words are taken not in a spirit of animosity, but in the manner in which I have intended them, in friendship and gratitude.

Thank you for listening,

D-Day

[davidh]

Good post David. Actually Qi's story was about a Singaporean guy who lost all his money trading, and then some more, so probably not the best story for this type of Board. I do feel, though, that this Forum should be limited to people who have bought the software. But I guess Steve wants to use it as a marketing vehicle too, so it's a delicate balancing act.
Good trading...

[qitrader]

I didn't intend to make such a fuss in the forum. Oh well. Let us just move on and make some money...Cool

[d-day]

BTW, there's a real nice bull flag setting up on the 5 minute ES - I'd be careful, however, as the rally off of yeserday's low has really lost its momentum and we're nearly up a aginst the 61.8% retracement from the 3/12/2007 afternoon pre-sell-off high, so the Fibonacci Brothers may step in soon to knock this down, at least temporarily.

Ok I'm done thinking for the day.

Good Trading to you all

[d-day]

ok, one more "thought," if I may. If you are long off that bullflag, you might want to keep your stop tighter than usual. I know we're supposed to let our profits run, but at the same time, we're daytraders, and it is a cardinal sin of daytrading to allow your profits to run into losses. There is a big difference between daytrading and trend-following.

PS Do not buy Michael Covel's book Trendfollowing, it is a waste of money, time, and the natural and human resources consumed to publish it.

[d-day]

Humor me this one last time, and I will not bother you anymore today - my stop is 1406 which is +2.5 SP points from 1403.5 (my entry). I will trail the stop 1 tick beneath the lows on a 5 minute bar chart until stopped out.

From the sound of the "dink" I think I'm out. She may run some more, and if she does, she'll invite back on for the ride at some point.

[AndyvB]

David:
Good thing the "dink" got you out
Andy

[pegasus5]

Good Morning Everyone,

For those of you interested in volume based charts, here is trade setup I took this morning in ES 10000v chart. I would like to point out that this signal DID NOT fire on time charts.

My personal style is to utilized the MTP methodology on any and all available charts..specifically for me Time and Volume charts..I'm really not interested in Tick charts..much too noisy.

That said, every trader on this Forum should be open minded to other trader view points. I do advocate in K.I.S.S and not to "overthink" setups.

Anyway, here is my TS3 Long trade. BTW..+4R gain....not a bad way to start day.

[d-day]

For those of you interested in volume based charts ...

... every trader on this Forum should be open minded to other trader view points.

Troublemaker!;)

[d-day]

Bear flag ready to break on ES entry would be ...

oops, sorry.

[Matt Bowen]

PS Do not buy Michael Covel's book Trend following, it is a waste of money, time, and the natural and human resources consumed to publish it.


Most of what Michael Coval writes about is from facts and from personal interviews laced-up by his own opinions. I will agree that the book is not going to appeal to a day trader because it's a pretty well known fact that day trading is 10 X's harder than position trading. I would find it very hard to argue Ed Seykota's post here:

http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/000314.html

Here's another fact: In the 24 years I've been in this business, I've yet to meet anyone who can successfully trade 1 minute and lower time frames, I've met quite a few who can do it on 3 minute and 5 minute, but that's the lowest time frame any of these traders will go. The reason being is that when you trade that close to the market you have to be perfect in every way. And just remember the transmission from Globex can be anywhere from 5 to 40 seconds behind what is electronically printed to data vendors so slippage and commissions will eat in to the overall overhead of your trading.

David, I have followed this board for several weeks and you are doing a great job of posting your trades and I think this is great, but to be honest with you I can't tell if you are ahead or behind at any given time. Are you tracking your trades with and excel program or MSA http://www.adaptrade.com/
I'd love to see the metrics because I'm very curious as to the expectancy of your trades and with day trading it only takes a few weeks to get a 100 trades on 1 minute bars.

Now, just because I've never seen anybody successfully trade 1 minute bars doesn't mean it can't be done or it's impossible. If you can do it... hey man, my hats off to you :)

[qitrader]

Going back to the story I posted. I believe that the story has a few implicit lessons to learn from and depends on how the reader interpret its meaning. In my view, it reiterates the importance of using a position sizing that fits our risk tolerance. Once we determine a risk we are comfortable with, we can then try to minimize the effects of our emotions when our trades go sour. For the singaporean, he did not exercise correct position sizing and bet his entire farm on just a few stocks , all correlated to one market. His portfolio heat took a beating on the day that the asian market crash. However, has he been smart and only risk less than 10% of his money, or 2% for every stock he put in, he would have plenty of money left to get back on track. That is what I learnt from the article.

[Steve Griffiths]

Going back to the story I posted. I believe that the story has a few implicit lessons to learn from and depends on how the reader interpret its meaning. In my view, it reiterates the importance of using a position sizing that fits our risk tolerance. Once we determine a risk we are comfortable with, we can then try to minimize the effects of our emotions when our trades go sour. For the singaporean, he did not exercise correct position sizing and bet his entire farm on just a few stocks , all correlated to one market. His portfolio heat took a beating on the day that the asian market crash. However, has he been smart and only risk less than 10% of his money, or 2% for every stock he put in, he would have plenty of money left to get back on track. That is what I learnt from the article.

Brilliant, that is perfect, and is totally correct. and a good lesson

Steve

[Todd Morgan]

Not part of trading ....just an editorial comment:

I never understood the whole appeal of the Covel Book. Especially after Curtis Faith, with the blessing of Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, published the Original Turtle Rules for free.

http://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/system.htm

The story I was told is that Richard and Bill and the Turtles were so disgusted with Covel "freeloading" on their work that they decided to preempt his attempts to profit on work that was not his.

Covel never modest about plagiarism decided to publish a second book. Faith, now even more disgusted with Covel decided to publish his own book straight from the turtles mouth, if you will. Not only that he beat Covel to the market with his own book by 8 months.:D

It's my opinion that there's not a lot of respect in the professional trading community for the likes of Covel.

But to each is his own of course.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

As a quick guideline for posting. If you are adding a link to an external source, please include a quick summary of what will be learned form that link, because If I see just a link to a web site with no explanation, then I will remove it.

The reason for this is we got a few dodgy people adding content to this forum that we all do not want, so if I have no idea what the post is about I will be cautious and remove it.

So please, make my life easy and just let us all know what any external link is about......

Thanks

Steve

[d-day]

Here's another fact: In the 24 years I've been in this business, I've yet to meet anyone who can successfully trade 1 minute and lower time frames, I've met quite a few who can do it on 3 minute and 5 minute, but that's the lowest time frame any of these traders will go. The reason being is that when you trade that close to the market you have to be perfect in every way. And just remember the transmission from Globex can be anywhere from 5to 40 seconds behind what is electronically printed to data vendors so slippage and commissions will eat in to the overall overhead of your trading.

David, I have followed this board for several weeks and you are doing a great job of posting your trades and I think this is great, but to be honest with you I can't tell if you are ahead or behind at any given time. Are you tracking your trades with and excel program or MSA http://www.adaptrade.com/
I'd love to see the metrics because I'm very curious as to the expectancy of your trades and with day trading it only takes a few weeks to get a 100 trades on 1 minute bars.

Now, just because I've never seen anybody successfully trade 1 minute bars doesn't mean it can't be done or it's impossible. If you can do it... hey man, my hats off to you :) Bold added - DD



1) All of my non MTP setups develop on 5 minute charts. My MTP set-ups develop off both 3 and 5 minute charts. One minute charts are used primarily for cherry picking an aggressive entry level whereby I can maximize lverage and minimize risk via a very tight stop.

For example - Yesterday's DP trade on the 3 minute ER2 would have had you make entry at 769.10 with 1 contract for a risk of $250. Drill down to the 1 minute chart and you could have made entry at 767.70 with 3 contracts (1 tick above the high of the second 1 minute bar to test the 767.7 low). Total risk was only $80 more than waiting for the 3 minute bar to close, but the reward was exponentially more. The stop loss for both of these entries was 766.60.

Among my favorite setups are trading bull/bear flags. If you have read Rashcke and Connors, I would refer you to the Anti and the Grail as being my bread and butter. I watch for these on the five minute chart. Interestingly, the fractal nature of price action often allows one to find, for example, a bull flag on a 1 minute chart that is forming in the last bar prior to breakout on the five minute chart.

In other words, I'm not trading 1 minute set-ups. What I am doing is cheating a bit by moving the starting line closer to me than it would otherwise be.:cool:

I also like to fade support and resistance. SAR does not change from a 1 minute to a five minute to a 15 minute chart. If a price level stopped the market once, it may do it again, and the evidence will be seen on all charts that show that moment in time, even tick charts. Remember, the stop loss for the above DP trade was the same 766.6 whether you sized your entry off the 1 minute or the 3 minute chart.

This does mean I am sometimes too early, and I am stopped out and need to re-enter (or I am plain wrong and the set-up fails to develop fully).

2) The only metrics I keep are my P/L and my withdrawal stubs (as one trader stated inthis months S&C magazine "I eat what I kill". I am not so sophisticated as to require anythin more than knowing what my EOD and EOM equity is.

I'll leave "metrics" and "spreadsheets" to the Hedge-fund quants, systems developers, booksellers.

As for expectancy, I expect to make a profit everytime I trade. I don't, of course, but I come close. As you can tell from my posts, I am rarely in a trade more than 20 minutes, and I move my stop to BE very quickly.

Also, it is the MTPredictor R/R module that has allowed me to drill down to 1 minute charts for my entries. I can, with three quick clicks, get my entry, stop loss, and position size for my risk level. I could never respond quickly enough before to enter on 1 minute charts with a defined risk.


This has taken too long to type, so forgive me for not taking time to proof read or spell check.

By he way, I am short the ES off the bear flag I mentioned above at 1405 and my stop is BE. I will take profits before I ever let that stop get toouched unless the market spikes higher more quickly than I can hit the enter button on my already loaded market order. Currently up 2.5 points. And don't doubt me Matt, I post my set-ups in real time, prior to being triggered. And I always freely post when I do get stopped for a loss.

[d-day]

By he way, I am short the ES off the bear flag I mentioned above at 1405 and my stop is BE. I will take profits before I ever let that stop get toouched unless the market spikes higher more quickly than I can hit the enter button on my already loaded market order. Currently up 2.5 points. And don't doubt me Matt, I post my set-ups in real time, prior to being triggered. And I always freely post when I do get stopped for a loss.

My stop is now 1404.25 1 tick above the 20 ema on the 5 minute chart. I may not let it even get that high, but it is there - 3 ticks better than BE.

I fully expect this particular trade to be profitable:cool:

[d-day]

Here is a 1 minute and a 5 minute chart of the ES today referencing a bull flag buy set-up from 10:15 this morning. You could have entered on the 1 minute chart, and then add if the breakout is confirmed on the five minute. In this case, I did miss my chance to get in on the 1 minute chart because I was too busy reading this forum LOL.

But you can clearly see why I use 1 minute charts, especially during these times of increased volatility. Imean we have the SP's moving more in some 5 minute bars than had been its ATR for the day before 2/22/2007.

[jswin]

ok, one more "thought," if I may. If you are long off that bullflag, you might want to keep your stop tighter than usual. I know we're supposed to let our profits run, but at the same time, we're daytraders, and it is a cardinal sin of daytrading to allow your profits to run into losses. There is a big difference between daytrading and trend-following.

PS Do not buy Michael Covel's book Trendfollowing, it is a waste of money, time, and the natural and human resources consumed to publish it.

May I ask whether your opinion of Covel's book was influenced by TMG's recent performance as demonstrated on Collective2?

[d-day]

May I ask whether your opinion of Covel's book was influenced by TMG's recent performance as demonstrated on Collective2?

Edited by Steve Griffiths

Sorry David,

We get into trouble if you are so aggressive against other people products, hence I have had to remove your comments here.

Steve Griffiths

[d-day]

I missed this trade (see attached chart) - the 2nd one I missed today - by spending too much time posting to defend my trading approach rather than focusing on the market and posting set-ups.

I'm done posting until after the close.

See ya'.

[jjc]

I Posted this before but worth repeating.

"personal note to pegasus5 and davidday,


keep up the good work on posting your 'before the fact' trades."



j

[jswin]

ok, one more "thought," if I may. If you are long off that bullflag, you might want to keep your stop tighter than usual. I know we're supposed to let our profits run, but at the same time, we're daytraders, and it is a cardinal sin of daytrading to allow your profits to run into losses. There is a big difference between daytrading and trend-following.

PS Do not buy Michael Covel's book Trendfollowing, it is a waste of money, time, and the natural and human resources consumed to publish it.

May I ask whether your opinion of Covel's book was influenced by TMG's recent performance as demonstrated on Collective2?

Actually, ignore that. I had not read the posts subsequent to your original post. I did not realise he was widely known and of dubious reputation.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

OK, time to focus on MTPredictor related trading, as this is the MTPredictor Forum............

The markets are struggling slightly higher again today, so my questions is whether this rally can continue on into the next opposing DP level,

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

A valid 3min DP sell on the YM, that may work out in the short-term but I would want to keep a real close on on this as well have potential TS3 buys on the NQ at the moment as well...........

Time to be cautious.

Steve

[d-day]

I know I said I wasn't going to post anymore before the close, but I'm long on a TS3 on the 5 minute ER2 - Long at 786.10 Stop 784.60

[qitrader]

I finally got an entry on ER2 Long @ 786. Anyone in this?

update: I just moved my stop to BE. I love risk-free trades. Now all the cranium work is done and will follow with ATR stop.

[d-day]

Here's the chart

[Steve Griffiths]

well...........

Looks like the answer to my last question was yes. the YM can decline to reach the opposing DP :)

Nice profit of approx 4x the initial risk :)

Steve

[qitrader]

THanks David for posting the chart. I use Snag it to capture my trades but they dont come out as clear as the ones you and pegasus have posted.

[d-day]

now if you look right now (2:01 EDT) that is a bull flaf on the 5 minute ER2, and it looks like she wants to go higher. A failure here and I would book my profits.

[d-day]

with that pop above 787.90 I feel comfortable moving my stop up to 786.70 -
that's better than risk free. Once again, in terms of expectancy, I expect this trade to be profitable, even if only marginally so.

[d-day]

I bailed at 787.1. I'd give you the reasons but then I may be persecuted for thinking. But look at the slope of, say, the 20 ema on the 5 minute chart and then compare the most recent swing high on the 5 minute chart to the prior swing high and then apply your own gray matter to what the chart is telling you.

[qitrader]

Update: +.1R

Weee, free trade including commission!!

[d-day]

PS The fact that price looks like it won't make the first WPT (and it may still get there) does not make this a bad trade. In fact, this was a good trade. It would only be a bad trade if you got long at 786.10, rode it up to 788.40 for a $230 per contract profit, and then let it get away from you without having held onto a fistful of dollars. And if you end up taking a loss on it - SHAME ON YOU! You have a family to support! This isn't about expectancy, stats, spreadsheets, delta, beta, long tails, short tails, bell curves, laffer curves, etc. etc. It is about NOT GOING BROKE. In order to NOT GO BROKE you must MAKE A PROFIT. Which in turn requires that you to take that profit when the market is ever so kind as to give it to you.

So this was a good trade, in my book.

[qitrader]

Very true David.....I know of a trader in Canada that makes very consistent money scalping 1c-5c in stocks that have beta of 1 or greater and that are very slow. His RR is about 5:1 but he trades alot but specializes on 5 stocks only. It is a trading style that did not suit my personality but he is very good at it. I've seen his P/L every day and is consistently positive every single day for the past 3 yrs.

In essence, I recommend everyone to learn from what is provided in this forum and in Steve/Matt free reports. Then put everything together in a plan and execute it. There are too many ways to make money in this trading business and not one method is better than another. The importance is to find that one little niche that you are comfortable with and have the discipline to execute it. The rest is all BS.

[d-day]

The Most Important Pages in Market Wizards if you are an off-the-floor daytrader, i.e. a guy sitting in an office in front of a quote screen trading, in my opinion, are pp. 335-342 of the interview with Mark Weinstein.


In New Market Wizards, it would be the interview with Linda Bradford Raschke.

[d-day]

Jack Schwager: Do you remember your worst losing week?

Mark Weinstein: I haven't had any losing weeks during that time, but I have had losing days.

JS: That is an incredible statement (in other words, Schwager is incredulous;) ) . How can you be sure that you are not simply forgetting about a few weeks when you lost money trading?

MW: The reason I am sure is that I remember all of my losses. For example, I have had three losing days in the last two years [(:eek: - D.Day]. Out of thousands of trades I made during that time, I had 17 losers [:eek: :eek: ] but nine of them were because my quote machine was down, and when that happens I just get out of my position.

JS: Most Traders would be happy winning on 50% of there trades, and a win ratio of 75% would be spectacular, yet you are implying [Sory, Jackie, but Mark is being down right EX-PLICIT] that your win ratio is in the vicinity of 99% - that is really hard to believe.

MW: You can check it with Leigh.

Now you have to read the rest of the interview yourself to get a glimpse as to how Mark Weinstein does it, but here's a hint: He does not let winners become losers.

If you do not have Market Wizards in your library, go get it.

[qitrader]

I am getting an ABC short on ER2 but looks very iffy. Not sure if I would take such a signal. Maybe for a quick 2R if we can get it. Better stay in cash and protect equity.

[d-day]

Unless this market falls apart or blasts off, I'll be standing aside for the rest of the day.

All four indices posted key reversal days yesterday. This is not what one would have expected in terms of follow-through had those reversals had alot of conviction behind them.

One of those things that make you say, "hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm." That is, if you were so inclined as to think about anything.

Good night.

[qitrader]

I stayed aside.

Total= -.9R

Not a bad day considering such poor action today.

[d-day]

That TS3 would have ended up netting 2+R had you held it and exited MOC.

But you never know.

[jjc]

That TS3 would have ended up netting 2+R had you held it and exited MOC.

But you never know.

D-Day,

You're a wealth of information and an asset to this forum.

Now, please explain what you mean by "would have ended up netting 2+R".

That lingo escapes me.

Thanks in advance


j

[qitrader]

I wish I held that long for alittle longer but my money management exited my trade early. When I was up 1.5R, my system (Ninja Trader) automatically move my stop to break even including commission (+.1R)

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. It does not really matter. All that matters is that I follow my rules and didn't get hurt as much.

Tomorrow should be a better day, if not, then next week :D

[qitrader]

GM all,

Potential DP short setting up on ER2

[d-day]

Here's what I'm looking at this morning. Nothing is writ in stone, of course. This is just part of my "road map" that I use to make decisions as the market makes its own decisions.

[d-day]

This is one possible outcome.

[d-day]

At the moment, however, I'm eating turtle soup. but it may not be a very big bowl of it. Stop is at BE but I won't let price get back there before I take my profits.

[d-day]

D-Day,

You're a wealth of information and an asset to this forum.

Now, please explain what you mean by "would have ended up netting 2+R".

That lingo escapes me.

Thanks in advance


j

Hi j,

"R" is vanthaRp speak for a unit of risk. When I say net 2+ R, I mean this: Take the difference between my initial entry and my initial stop loss and multiply that difference by the total contracts traded to get my $$'s at risk. This is R. a 2+R just means the profit would have been over 2 x's the initial risk of the trade. At the point at which I exited, my profit was approx. 2/3's the initial risk, or .66R. Had I stayed in the trade and exited Market on Close, my profit would have more than twice my inital risk.

It was still a good trade.

[qitrader]

I am short ER2 from 790.7. Hope it is one of those easy trades.

Update: Stop set at +.1R

Update2: Took +2.5R.

I'm done for the day. Good trading to all

[d-day]

Here's a five minute chart showing a possible scenario if my turtle soup turns out to have been served in a bowl and not a cup. Again, this is not a forecast. I just try to ask myself what, given current price action, are four or five likely scenarios so I can be prepared to trade differently depending upon how the market sets up.

[garciaal]

Qi,

Since this is all history now, I guess it is kosher if you post your entry time and your initial SL. If you are still in its looking good.

Thanks, Alex

[Todd Morgan]

Mornin' All,

Great DP sell set up on the ER2 1min at 7:20PST. 791.1 entry

I'm a bit late posting. Too busy using "the force" to make the market move my direction. :D

[d-day]

Mornin' All,

Great DP sell set up on the ER2 1min at 7:20PST. 791.1 entry

I'm a bit late posting. Too busy using "the force" to make the market move my direction. :D

Didn't you get the manual? You can not trade profitably off 1 minute charts!

[d-day]

1 minute bear flag - ER2

Will she brak or make a "v" bottom?

[qitrader]

Ouch...Bad trading decision on my part for exiting early. WOW

ER2 going to next DP level.

update: In fact, it did go lower. Amazing trading to whoever is still holding.

[d-day]

Don't look now but that 1 minute ERe DP short is at 6.3 R/R!

Of course, this is but a dream ...:rolleyes:

[d-day]

Not to give anyone the wrong idea - I did not take the ER2 DP Short as I was already short the SP's. I will rarely carry two similar positions in correlated markets.

BTW, my ES short is working well also.

[d-day]

Wow - You could book 8.5 R/R on the ER2 1 minute DP trade right now, and If I were short, I'd probably do just that, or at least take profits on some. ER2 is sitting right smak dab in the middle of the opposing DP point!

How's that for a random walk down wall street!?!

However, the SP's should have a little farther to fall, so the small caps may continue down also.

Much farther down and it could get messy.

[qitrader]

Very good trading all!!!

Steve is probably happy as many of his users caught this move and probably still holding.

Congrats all

[d-day]

Very good trading all!!!

Steve is probably happy as many of his users caught this move and probably still holding.

Congrats all

Imaginary Profits! Let me see your spreadsheets!:rolleyes:

[d-day]

I'm out on half my short ES and looking to cover the rest soon - my bias is turning to the long side. A sustained break below 1397 would put that view on hold, however.

Just in case anyone was wondering - not that you should:)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

yes I am glad that so many of you caught this fall ;)

Here is my take on the 3min AB, a classic DP set-up on STF divergence :) for a nice profit of nearly 4x the initial risk......... :)


Steve

[Todd Morgan]

Well that was fun.:)

9.0R overall after scaling some at the DP level and using the ATR to take me out of the rest.

Plus two very nice bear flags on the way down to which the very agressive trader could've added to his position. I believe I'll begin to do just that starting on Monday. Thanks David for bring these back into my trading tool bag.

Have a good day everyone.

[davidh]

Steve - did you get stopped out on your entry and then go in a second time?
Thanks

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep, -1R then +3.9R = +2.9R overall :) just on the standard set-ups on the 3min chart.........

Not a bad trade to start the day :)

But Todd with his +9R and David with is +8.5R - that is good trading............. well done Guys !

Steve

[davidh]

OK - just wanted to know why you might have not taken the entry after the first reversal bar. Nice one anyway :)

[d-day]

Here's a five minute chart showing a possible scenario if my turtle soup turns out to have been served in a bowl and not a cup. Again, this is not a forecast. I just try to ask myself what, given current price action, are four or five likely scenarios so I can be prepared to trade differently depending upon how the market sets up.



Well, that was a nice big bowl of turtle soup, with fine sherry no less!

Here's a what my minute chart from ealier looks like now.

Again, not a forecast, just one of 4-5 scenarios I came up with last night, the one that seemed most likely to me this morning, and the one that is playing out the best. I do not want to imply that the market will do what I have here. There is nothing to stop the SP's from going straight down here or from rocketing right up to new all-time highs.

You will note that my downside target was based on the location of yesterday's low and a DP taken off yesterday afternoon's low.

No magic, just good old-fashioned technical analysis combined with that new-fandled MTPredictor DP module.

It's good stuff, no matter how you trade it

[d-day]

Hi Guys,

yes I am glad that so many of you caught this fall ;)

Here is my take on the 3min AB, a classic DP set-up on STF divergence :) for a nice profit of nearly 4x the initial risk......... :)


Steve

You have to admit, Steve, that Todd posting this set-up in real-time off the one minute chart is pretty impressive. If I were sitting out there in cyberland lurking in the shadows I would be straining at the bit to get my own copy of MTPredictor so that I too could come out of the shadows to dance in the $un.