US Markets: Real-time Trading

[d-day]

Speaking of which, anyone else like the double bottom in the 3 min ES off the manual DP from the LOD with the triple stoch divergence (5,3,3)?


Here's a question for you - when is a double bottom likely not a double bottom?

[jojab]

Speaking of which, anyone else like the double bottom in the 3 min ES off the manual DP from the LOD with the triple stoch divergence (5,3,3)?

Nevermind! :)

[jojab]

Here's a question for you - when is a double bottom likely not a double bottom?

In relation to the setup I mentioned, I don't know but I'm all ears.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Matt,

I had a TS3 sell on the YM that I took for a -1R loss, and as you'll see in my screenshot, there was no new signal on my esignal after that trade was stopped out. Of course, I should have sold it again as it was a double top with yesterday afternoon's closing bar high.

Oh well, it's not the first and its not the last, and in the end, MTP makes up for them and then some.

Have a great day!

David

Hi David

a Perfect manual DP sell on "triple" Stochastic divergence at that high on the ES and YM.

Steve

[Stefan61200]

Hi Matt,

I had a TS3 sell on the YM that I took for a -1R loss, and as you'll see in my screenshot, there was no new signal on my esignal after that trade was stopped out. Of course, I should have sold it again as it was a double top with yesterday afternoon's closing bar high.

Oh well, it's not the first and its not the last, and in the end, MTP makes up for them and then some.

Have a great day!

David


Hi David,

you are not alone. I don't see these signals (YM and ES) even after I upgraded to v40 and switched to EST. :mad:

Have a great day
Stefan

[d-day]

I see an auto DP long on the 3 minute ES - it has not triggered, but its trigger price would be a buy stop at 1327.50

My question to Steve is this - is this or is this not a valid DP provided it triggers?


Ok, it just triggered with a 1327.75 print

[Steve Griffiths]

But some real beautiful manual DP trades on triple stochastic divergence.......... something that was popular in the Forum a month or so ago ....

Steve

[Sanjay]

Here is a bit of "advanced" volume analysis to get your teeth into ;)

Steve

Steve,
So would you consider this increased volume as running stops prior to the failure..I was tempted after having got stopped out of the previous DP as this was a double top with a red bar..also there was a DP forming on the 3 min ES at the same time..

[Steve Griffiths]

Steve,
So would you consider this increased volume as running stops prior to the failure..I was tempted after having got stopped out of the previous DP as this was a double top with a red bar..also there was a DP forming on the 3 min ES at the same time..

Exactly .................................

[Stefan61200]

Guys,

I'll give up for today. I just took the "bad" signals and the "good" signals didn't show up on my screen. :mad:

Have a great weekend. CU on Monday.
Stefan

[TreeShaker]

triangle with converging trendlines
Taylor rhythm would suggest a Sell Day at or above yesterday's highs

What did you read to learn the Taylor rhythim? Linda R book Street Smart is very expensive. Is there another?

[d-day]

Guys,

I'll give up for today. I just took the "bad" signals and the "good" signals didn't show up on my screen. :mad:

Have a great weekend. CU on Monday.
Stefan


Hang in there, Stefan. There'll be days like this so long as you trade. But with hard work, the good days easily outnumber the bad.

Have a great weekend,

David

[jojab]

Here's a question for you - when is a double bottom likely not a double bottom?

This may have gotten lost in the flurry of posts, but I would like to hear your thoughts when you have a moment.

Thanks

[Larry22]

That's it for me too, as I have again to go see my mom to take care of some problems. :rolleyes:

If I have time tonight I will post a chart with annotations as why I should have been short for most of the day in the ER2.


Laurent

[d-day]

This may have gotten lost in the flurry of posts, but I would like to hear your thoughts when you have a moment.

Thanks


I thought you knew! I'm the one asking the question lol. You so confidently pronounced it a double bottom, and I was asking why. I like to see price make a slightly lower low first, before clling something a double bottom. (Vice versa for double tops). Trader Vic calls such instances 2B set-ups.

[TreeShaker]

with a steady and climbing Trin (going north in the red) I am taking extreme caution with these long setsups this afternoon - which is probably a really good reason to take em !

HUH? You say you are using caution on long trades and that's a good reason to go long?:confused:

[jjc]

anyone take that ts3 on the 3min es?

[jojab]

I thought you knew! I'm the one asking the question lol. You so confidently pronounced it a double bottom, and I was asking why. I like to see price make a slightly lower low first, before clling something a double bottom. (Vice versa for double tops). Trader Vic calls such instances 2B set-ups.

Well, then that wouldn't be a double bottom. It would be a 2B set-up! :)

But, yes, I'm familar with the 2B set-up as well. Here is a link for those that might be interested in Trader Vic's set-up.

http://www.dacharts.com/2b.htm

But, obviously the set-up I was seeing didn't work out. We did get the lower push and some auto DP signals that didn't work either.

[jojab]

anyone take that ts3 on the 3min es?

I didn't get that one but showed a short TS3 on the NQ. I took the TS4 on the ER.

[jjc]

I didn't get that one but showed a short TS3 on the NQ. I took the TS4 on the ER.

gl 2u - i need to get below 26 or so before i can trail it with tha atr

[TreeShaker]

anyone take that ts3 on the 3min es?

I didn't take it J because I didn't like the diver. on it but it was at the 50% retrace of the H/L and it looks like it is doing good, so I hope you took it.:)

[jjc]

I didn't take it J because I didn't like the diver. on it but it was at the 50% retrace of the H/L and it looks like it is doing good, so I hope you took it.:)


tree - the 5 3 3 stoch divg looked pretty good from here - i might get stopped for a small gain - but a gain is a gain, huh

[TreeShaker]

tree - the 5 3 3 stoch divg looked pretty good from here - i might get stopped for a small gain - but a gain is a gain, huh

What can I say, my stoc. never looks like the ones you guys have. LOL I had two sm. trades for the day and I'm ahead 0.5R so like you say a gain is a gain. :)

[edfash]

Treeshaker-
the Taylot stuff is in linda's book, but if that is all you are interested in it is not worth the price, there is alot of very good stuff in the book. the reprint of Taylor's work on Trader's Press is really dry, but there is some great stuff in there. someone posted an article by George Angell that reviews the method. do you have that? it is just a guide to the rhythm of the market, not something that you can trade off, but there are days where it helps give a strong overall bias and is very useful.

[TreeShaker]

Well, then that wouldn't be a double bottom. It would be a 2B set-up! :)

But, yes, I'm familar with the 2B set-up as well. Here is a link for those that might be interested in Trader Vic's set-up.

http://www.dacharts.com/2b.htm

But, obviously the set-up I was seeing didn't work out. We did get the lower push and some auto DP signals that didn't work either.

That was pretty cool. Do you have any more of those? :cool:

[TreeShaker]

Treeshaker-
the Taylot stuff is in linda's book, but if that is all you are interested in it is not worth the price, there is alot of very good stuff in the book. the reprint of Taylor's work on Trader's Press is really dry, but there is some great stuff in there. someone posted an article by George Angell that reviews the method. do you have that? it is just a guide to the rhythm of the market, not something that you can trade off, but there are days where it helps give a strong overall bias and is very useful.

Thanks for the reply. On Amazon I read some reviews on Angell and there were some that stated that he got into trouble with SEC (?) re: his claims about the mkt and the stuff in his book was not tested. Do you have any thoughts on that?

[jojab]

That was pretty cool. Do you have any more of those? :cool:

Here are a couple more:

http://www.dacharts.com/123.htm

http://www.dacharts.com/inside.htm

[Steve Griffiths]

You can download it online...
There are other ebooks on this site, but the search engine is pretty poor.


Gillian

I am sorry I will have to delete this post as I cannot allow freebies of commercial products like this being advertised.

I am sure Linda would not like people downloading her book for free !

Steve

[Eddo]

HUH? You say you are using caution on long trades and that's a good reason to go long?:confused:

you miss the point my friend - that was a joke - I was urging caution at the start of the day - I was short and stayed short - the bit about 'thats a good reason to go long' was for the doubting Thomas's out there who always feel that they know better -

[G Fryer]

Thanks for the reply. On Amazon I read some reviews on Angell and there were some that stated that he got into trouble with SEC (?) re: his claims about the mkt and the stuff in his book was not tested. Do you have any thoughts on that?

The overview of the Taylor method that was posted here a while ago was partially a promotion for Angell's software which supposedly drew up the tables for you... I think it is discontinued however. Apparently he failed to include the usual risk disclaimers with his software and for his advisory service and then the data which he used to support his claims of success was not accurate and not independently verified as he had claimed. He is still in business, but he was fined for it.

The Taylor book was written in the 1950's, so subsequent (mis)use of his ideas should not reflect badly on the original.

Gillian

[d-day]

The Taylor book was written in the 1950's, so subsequent (mis)use of his ideas should not reflect badly on the original.
Gillian


I was going to say the same thing, but Gillian said it first (and no doubt better than I could have said it).

[pegasus5]

Howdie Folks,

I recently began exploring Range Charts and was wondering if anyone has experience using them with MTP?

How about various settings (ranges) that have a decent hit rate for signal generation.

Any input would be most appreciated. Below is YMH08 12 Range with a TS3 Buy setup that worked nicely. Also there was an advanced DP Sell right at the same profit target.

Cheers,
David

[edfash]

In truth i know nothing about George Angell, except for the fact that there is a reprint of an article he wrote regarding the Taylor method in the Trader's Press edition of Taylor's work. I think the world of Linda Rashke and her work. Every trader can benefit from her knowledge and experience. There is a wealth of information in Linda's book and the material she presents on her website. I think Taylor's work is so important because it highlights one of the very important short term cycles in price action in any market that along with contraction/expansion cycles help to identify a strong daily bias. The more we learn about market patterns will make us much better traders, and be able to implement a powerful tool like MTPredictor so much better.

[Eddo]

Hi David,

you are not alone. I don't see these signals (YM and ES) even after I upgraded to v40 and switched to EST. :mad:

Have a great day
Stefan

Stefan

When u switched to EST did you also remember to change the Time Template on your chart to EST and then re-boot eSignal - if you don't re-boot eSignal it won't update to your change of Computer time - it worked for me fine

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Please remember that Matt uses 9:30am - 4:00pm for his "day session" whereas the rest of us are using 9:30am - 4:15pm.

I think you will find that is the difference, nothing to do with MTPredictor, just different Time Sessions

Steve

[Stefan61200]

Stefan

When u switched to EST did you also remember to change the Time Template on your chart to EST and then re-boot eSignal - if you don't re-boot eSignal it won't update to your change of Computer time - it worked for me fine


Hi Chris,

thank you your hint. After I switched to EST I changed the Time Template, rebooted my computer and started eSignal. Nothing changed.

BUT - after I changed the Time Template to 24 hrs. the signals showed up and even more, the "bad" signal @ YM did NOT come up. Funny thing.
As a result of it I will have for each market, YM and ES, two 3 min chart - one with 24 hrs and the other from 09:00 to 04:15 pm.

I hope that keep me a little bit out of the trouble for getting no signals.

Stefan

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Chris,

thank you your hint. After I switched to EST I changed the Time Template, rebooted my computer and started eSignal. Nothing changed.

BUT - after I changed the Time Template to 24 hrs. the signals showed up and even more, the "bad" signal @ YM did NOT come up. Funny thing.
As a result of it I will have for each market, YM and ES, two 3 min chart - one with 24 hrs and the other from 09:00 to 04:15 pm.

I hope that keep me a little bit out of the trouble for getting no signals.

Stefan

Hi Guys

Please remember that Matt uses 9:30am - 4:00pm for his "day session" whereas the rest of us are using 9:30am - 4:15pm.

I think you will find that is the difference, nothing to do with MTPredictor, just different Time Sessions

Steve

[Stefan61200]

Hi Guys

Please remember that Matt uses 9:30am - 4:00pm for his "day session" whereas the rest of us are using 9:30am - 4:15pm.

I think you will find that is the difference, nothing to do with MTPredictor, just different Time Sessions

Steve


Hi Steve,

please explain to me what Matt's day session got to do with my problem not to get signals in YM and ES? I am sorry but do not catch that point.

Thank you
Stefan

[kbednar]

Hi Guys

Even clearer on the ES with triple Stochastic divergence

Again, a great "manual" trade...

Steve


Steve:

I am using TradeStation and If I turn OFF the STF Filter and the Filter Two Plus Two........... the ES 3 min DP trade at 11:12 EST Friday appears. It seems to me that both the filter requirements were met. Are there any issues with these filters being OFF :confused: Thanks.

Ken :) :) :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi ken, you MUST leave the 2+2 turned on and "only" turn the STF filter off "if and only if" you know when to - for example fore the one special set-up which is outlined in Page 8/9 of the manual...

Stefan. It is because the last 15mins of the day is missing, so the swings are different. Different data means different results...

Thanks

Steve

[edfash]

following an inside day on friday we are in a potential breakout mode. it is monday and the economic calendar is bare making a strong breakout less likely. if the market turns up can make a larger ABC on the daily chart, if it should turn down and break below the 1260 low ($) we can see a wave 5 and Elliot Wave completion.
ES made a double bottom at 1321 in overnight market.

[Eddo]

Its early days but for what its worth the Trin looks to be trending down which would indicate some buying coming in

[d-day]

Hi Steve,

There was a 5 minute TS1 sell signal on the ES this morning at 11:20 AM EST.

1) It looks as though the "C"ended at the max wave C level, however. I did not take this trade. Was I right not to do so based upkn MTP rules? Or was this indeed a valid short (regardless of outcome)?

2) If the market continues higher from here, assumng STF divergence, 2 bar rule, 2r R/R, etc., would an automatic DP signal based on a DP projected from the 11:20 AM EST high be a valid DP?

Thank you,

david day

[jjc]

Hi Steve,

There was a 5 minute TS1 sell signal on the ES this morning at 11:20 AM EST.

1) It looks as though the "C"ended at the max wave C level, however. I did not take this trade. Was I right not to do so based upkn MTP rules? Or was this indeed a valid short (regardless of outcome)?

2) If the market continues higher from here, assumng STF divergence, 2 bar rule, 2r R/R, etc., would an automatic DP signal based on a DP projected from the 11:20 AM EST high be a valid DP?

Thank you,

david day

good question dave but the problem is that we never get answers until the trade is over - not while the trade is in effect

[Steve Griffiths]

Guys

That is a bit of a harsh comment ;) ................ believe it or not but I do have other things to do here at MTPreduictor other than follow the Forum all day.... That is why email for questions is a lot better

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Here is a "manual" set-up I had placed on my 5min YM before I had to go for a meeting. This was based on the 15min automatic DP signal.

As you can see, we are slowly creeping to the anticipated target.

Steve

PS, and yes I did "ignore" the 5min sell earlier, because the 15min chart was up....

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Here is a "manual" set-up I had placed on my 5min YM before I had to go for a meeting. This was based on the 15min automatic DP signal.

As you can see, we are slowly creeping to the anticipated target.

Steve

PS, and yes I did "ignore" the 5min sell earlier, because the 15min chart was up....

And the result............. a nice +5.5R profit

Again, this is a technique I have shown before, identify the set-up on the 15min chart, but trade it on the 5min.....

[Sejake]

Weird....I took the exact same trade, same reason :).

[Sejake]

Watching this 3 min manual DP as well....

[jay21]

Hi Steve,

There was a 5 minute TS1 sell signal on the ES this morning at 11:20 AM EST.

1) It looks as though the "C"ended at the max wave C level, however. I did not take this trade. Was I right not to do so based upkn MTP rules? Or was this indeed a valid short (regardless of outcome)?

2) If the market continues higher from here, assumng STF divergence, 2 bar rule, 2r R/R, etc., would an automatic DP signal based on a DP projected from the 11:20 AM EST high be a valid DP?

Thank you,

david day

Dave I really agree with your question to Steve, and we of course saw your point 2 there actually happen. And as you say "regardless of outcome" is that a valid trade... - I would really like to understand the rule for which DPs are not valid...

Steve, would be great if you responded!

Cheers,
Johan

[Steve Griffiths]

Weird....I took the exact same trade, same reason :).

Brillinat, well done there - great minds think alike (and all that) :)

Well done, nice trade...........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Dave I really agree with your question to Steve, and we of course saw your point 2 there actually happen. And as you say "regardless of outcome" is that a valid trade... - I would really like to understand the rule for which DPs are not valid...

Steve, would be great if you responded!

Cheers,
Johan

Hi Johan,

A valid DP is simple really, it has to be a reversal at the DP level on new highs or new lows, ie a "failure" to continue to move into new high or low territory on STF divergence....

As ouitlined in the help "Intro to MTP", PDF Pages 18-20

http://www.mtpredictor.com/help/PDFHelp.html

I hope this helps ?

Steve

BTW (This is why the wave b DP is not valid because it is not a move into new highs or new lows).

[jay21]

Hi Johan,

A valid DP is simple really, it has to be a reversal at the DP level on new highs or new lows, ie a "failure" to continue to move into new high or low territory on STF divergence....

As ouitlined in the help "Intro to MTP", PDF Pages 18-20

http://www.mtpredictor.com/help/PDFHelp.html

I hope this helps ?

Steve

BTW (This is why the wave b DP is not valid because it is not a move into new highs or new lows).

OK, thanks for this Steve.

However I feel it is sometimes difficult to judge which is a new extreme and which is not - it often depends how far back you look in time the way I see it.

But I suppose the important point is not to take a DP off a lower degree pattern when the DP-area has not passed the extreme of the higher degree wave. And I suppose that is what we saw in the example yesterday.

I also suppose that what we would be doing if we took these DPs would be to take very low quality TSs - so low quality ones that they are not in fact TSs. However I also suppose that if the DP-example discussed yesterday would also have been a valid TS - then it would obviously have been OK to trade.

If you have the opportunity I would very much appreciate some piece of education on this specific topic.

Cheers,
Johan

[Steve Griffiths]

OK, thanks for this Steve.

However I feel it is sometimes difficult to judge which is a new extreme and which is not - it often depends how far back you look in time the way I see it.

But I suppose the important point is not to take a DP off a lower degree pattern when the DP-area has not passed the extreme of the higher degree wave. And I suppose that is what we saw in the example yesterday.

I also suppose that what we would be doing if we took these DPs would be to take very low quality TSs - so low quality ones that they are not in fact TSs. However I also suppose that if the DP-example discussed yesterday would also have been a valid TS - then it would obviously have been OK to trade.

If you have the opportunity I would very much appreciate some piece of education on this specific topic.

Cheers,
Johan

Hi Johan

Yep, and therein lies the challenge for me as a developer. To design code that does as much of the decision making for you as possible (which is tricky because PC's are stupid and do not have common sense). This is what the new build 40, and now 41 has done. Here I have amended the DP code to try and eliminate these (less reliable) wave b DP's and only look for a DP when it is making a new highs or new lows.

But as always, a check of how good the set-up looks by eye is always a good idea.

This is why I spend so much time "educating" customers, so they can move "beyond" the PC and purely automatic set-ups by understanding the set-up and the concepts behind it.

I hope this helps ?

Steve

[G Fryer]

Hi Steve,

There was a 5 minute TS1 sell signal on the ES this morning at 11:20 AM EST.

1) It looks as though the "C"ended at the max wave C level, however. I did not take this trade. Was I right not to do so based upkn MTP rules? Or was this indeed a valid short (regardless of outcome)?

david day

I guess since this was concurrent with the TS1 sell on the YM and there was an opposing longer term DP on the 15 min YM, you should have been looking for longs on all markets and ignored this. Hindsight.

I didn't take it since it didn't look like any of the indicators were rolling over in support of a change, but we all know divergence isn't a requirement on regular TSs and the indicators are lagging anyway.

Gillian

[jay21]

Hi Johan

Yep, and therein lies the challenge for me as a developer. To design code that does as much of the decision making for you as possible (which is tricky because PC's are stupid and do not have common sense). This is what the new build 40, and now 41 has done. Here I have amended the DP code to try and eliminate these (less reliable) wave b DP's and only look for a DP when it is making a new highs or new lows.

But as always, a check of how good the set-up looks by eye is always a good idea.

This is why I spend so much time "educating" customers, so they can move "beyond" the PC and purely automatic set-ups by understanding the set-up and the concepts behind it.

I hope this helps ?

Steve

Yeah, as you agree with my statments above I believe I start to understand this :) - thanks Steve!!

But still - if you were to devote some future education thing to this area, I would appreciate it a lot...

[d-day]

I keep the following quote from Victor "Trader Vic" Sperandeo on my desk that helps me keep focused on what to expect on days like today:

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap." Victor Sperandeo, Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231


Just a reminder - this proves itself true far more days than it fails accurately to predict the day's outcome.

Just be careful when the inevitable DP's signal shorts as the day progresses. Odds favor Northbound "continuation" trades to Southbound reversals, in my opinion (an opinion that is, too often, incorrect). This does not mean the market will not pullback, nor that it will not do so at DP's. It just means that DP reversal trades may have a lower odds of profitability today. Maybe.

Also the GBPJPY and the EURJPY are in rally mode - usually bullish for US indices.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Yes we also appear to be finding support at the level of the prior minor Wave b low, see chart below.

So I agree with David, we may well get a rally form here

Steve

[Eddo]

Just a reminder - this proves itself true far more days than it fails accurately to predict the day's outcome.

Just be careful when the inevitable DP's signal shorts as the day progresses. Odds favor Northbound "continuation" trades to Southbound reversals, in my opinion (an opinion that is, too often, incorrect). This does not mean the market will not pullback, nor that it will not do so at DP's. It just means that DP reversal trades may have a lower odds of profitability today. Maybe.

Also the GBPJPY and the EURJPY are in rally mode - usually bullish for US indices.

Yes ....... and with a Trin at only 0.45 and deep into the blue at the moment thats sounds like very good advice but having said all of that we look to be setting up for a juicy short DP with divergence et all on the AB 3 min .......... what to do :confused:

[d-day]

Yes ....... and with a Trin at only 0.45 and deep into the blue at the moment thats sounds like very good advice but having said all of that we look to be setting up for a juicy short DP with divergence et all on the AB 3 min .......... what to do :confused:

You have to trade as you would trade it Chris.

After all, there is always that 5% of the time where the market fails to close in the direction of the gap. And if today is one of those days, shorts will be richly rewarded.

If not ... zero sum ... someone else will be richly rewarded.

That's what makes a market, right!?!

[rrs]

Yes ....... and with a Trin at only 0.45 and deep into the blue at the moment thats sounds like very good advice but having said all of that we look to be setting up for a juicy short DP with divergence et all on the AB 3 min .......... what to do :confused:

AB (ER2 in other data feeds) currently shows potential TS SELL setups in two higher time frames -- 15 min and 60 min. When higher time frame (15 and 60 min)trends conflict with lower / trading time frame (3, 5 min)setups, I tend to go with what higher time frame trends are telling me. If you look at the 15 and 60 min chart of AB, you will see that trend in both time frames are well established and do not show any sign of a potential end.

Rama.

[Eddo]

You have to trade as you would trade it Chris.

After all, there is always that 5% of the time where the market fails to close in the direction of the gap. And if today is one of those days, shorts will be richly rewarded.

If not ... zero sum ... someone else will be richly rewarded.

That's what makes a market, right!?!

Thankfully the decision was made by the market as the DP didn't trigger - so thats one decision that didn't need to be made (well not just then it didn't)

[Eddo]

Thankfully the decision was made by the market as the DP didn't trigger - so thats one decision that didn't need to be made (well not just then it didn't)

....... however we are right slap bang up against a very big 15 min DP on this AB so a little pullback now is not out of the question in my view - we will see

[rrs]

AB (ER2 in other data feeds) currently shows potential TS SELL setups in two higher time frames -- 15 min and 60 min. When higher time frame (15 and 60 min)trends conflict with lower / trading time frame (3, 5 min)setups, I tend to go with what higher time frame trends are telling me. If you look at the 15 and 60 min chart of AB, you will see that trend in both time frames are well established and do not show any sign of a potential end.

Rama.

Here are the charts of 15 min and 60 min AB (ER2)

Rama.

[d-day]

Thankfully the decision was made by the market as the DP didn't trigger - so thats one decision that didn't need to be made (well not just then it didn't)

As for me, I won't be a seller until at least the first WPT on this 3 minute TS2 on the ES gets hit (or my stop loss gets hit).

I am not typically a big fan of TS2's - but they are gold on gap days when you get a signal in the direction of the gap.

[Eddo]

....... however we are right slap bang up against a very big 15 min DP on this AB so a little pullback now is not out of the question in my view - we will see

for better or worse I am now short the AB from the 15 min DP but trading the 3 min charts with divergence

[d-day]

As for me, I won't be a seller until at least the first WPT on this 3 minute TS2 on the ES gets hit (or my stop loss gets hit).


Here is the pattern I would expect to unfold on a day that has traded as this has so far.

[Eddo]

for better or worse I am now short the AB from the 15 min DP but trading the 3 min charts with divergence

.. like watching paint dry this one .... but my Trin has started to trend up and the YM 3 min looks like its just failed so I might get some joy out of this - my stop is a B/E already however so on a freebie now either way

[TreeShaker]

As for me, I won't be a seller until at least the first WPT on this 3 minute TS2 on the ES gets hit (or my stop loss gets hit).

I am not typically a big fan of TS2's - but they are gold on gap days when you get a signal in the direction of the gap.

I took the 3 min DP, so here is hoping it doesn't have to reach the TS2 WPT

[d-day]

I took the 3 min DP, so here is hoping it doesn't have to reach the TS2 WPT


Who Wins? Who Loses? And Why?

[Eddo]

.. like watching paint dry this one .... but my Trin has started to trend up and the YM 3 min looks like its just failed so I might get some joy out of this - my stop is a B/E already however so on a freebie now either way

Nearly at my first tgt of the 3 min DP -

[Steve Griffiths]

for better or worse I am now short the AB from the 15 min DP but trading the 3 min charts with divergence

Hi Eddo

AB short is loking good now.............. a good bit of analysis there - well done

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Eddo

AB short is loking good now.............. a good bit of analysis there - well done

Steve

Hi Steve

Thanks - I fear a bit of good luck as well but half out at 1st tgt for a nice gain and tight stop in for the balance - should yield a total of at least +2R but lets hope for more :)

[Eddo]

Hi Steve

Thanks - I fear a bit of good luck as well but half out at 1st tgt for a nice gain and tight stop in for the balance - should yield a total of at least +2R but lets hope for more :)

........ there is now the possibility of a short continuation trade to add back the bit I took off the table - we still have a blue Trin but its rising - I think however I will just let my balance run on the ATR and see what happens - been a long day for me and I'am not feeling as brave as I sometimes do :)

[TreeShaker]

........ there is now the possibility of a short continuation trade to add back the bit I took off the table - we still have a blue Trin but its rising - I think however I will just let my balance run on the ATR and see what happens - been a long day for me and I'am not feeling as brave as I sometimes do :)

Think I'm in a parallel trade in ES and I also took 1 off at 1st target and letting the rest ride on ATR. :)

[Eddo]

Think I'm in a parallel trade in ES and I also took 1 off at 1st target and letting the rest ride on ATR. :)

......... good luck with it. With Trin now diving back into the deep and we are about at the turn of the hour so I have just closed out my 2nd half - probably should have let it run on the ATR but my brain hurts and at 18:00 GMT I want a glass of Scotch ! -

[TreeShaker]

Think I'm in a parallel trade in ES and I also took 1 off at 1st target and letting the rest ride on ATR. :)

I just got stopped out for 1.5R Profit is profit. :D

[TreeShaker]

......... good luck with it. With Trin now diving back into the deep and we are about at the turn of the hour so I have just closed out my 2nd half - probably should have let it run on the ATR but my brain hurts and at 18:00 GMT I want a glass of Scotch ! -

Did you get the 2R you were expecting?

[Eddo]

I just got stopped out for 1.5R Profit is profit. :D

..... well done - it took some time but a nice little gain for us both then :) have a good evening all - I had to give a 3 hour lecture this morning, my Merc got a flat tyre (which cost £140 to fix) all of which was a pain, so I retire from this battleground a little up on the day and wishing you all good fortune for its remainder

Chris

[Eddo]

Did you get the 2R you were expecting?

No - just under at 1.8 but that OK

[TreeShaker]

:) No - just under at 1.8 but that OK

Congrats, you desere your Scotch.

[d-day]

Yes, on day's like this, I have too much time on my hands. I am still long ES, and ideally, I'd like to see a pullback over the next 27-66 minutes that takes the ES down into the DP projected off the 12:45 low, and then rally into the close into the DP projected off the 11:18 AM EST high.

I know, too much time on my hands.

And so long as the final result of the day is the market ends higher(as I am long), I really could care less how it gets there. But these little excercises keep the brain from freezing.

[TreeShaker]

Yes, on day's like this, I have too much time on my hands. I am still long ES, and ideally, I'd like to see a pullback over the next 27-66 minutes that takes the ES down into the DP projected off the 12:45 low, and then rally into the close into the DP projected off the 11:18 AM EST high.

I know, too much time on my hands.

And so long as the final result of the day is the market ends higher(as I am long), I really could care less how it gets there. But these little excercises keep the brain from freezing.

All I can say is that you must have the patience of Job to wait that out. Good luck Dave, I hope it happens for you. At worst case scenario I reckon you will b/e?

[d-day]

All I can say is that you must have the patience of Job to wait that out. Good luck Dave, I hope it happens for you. At worst case scenario I reckon you will b/e?

Shhhhhhhhhhh ... be verwy verwy quiet ... I'm huntin' DP's ..... hahahahahahahahaha


I got long in the wee hours so I will be better than breakeven.

Now that DP is looking good - but much can happen. We shall see.

[d-day]

All I can say is that you must have the patience of Job to wait that out.

We'll see what kind of patience I have if price drops like a rock through that DP!

[Sanjay]

Yes, on day's like this, I have too much time on my hands. I am still long ES, and ideally, I'd like to see a pullback over the next 27-66 minutes that takes the ES down into the DP projected off the 12:45 low, and then rally into the close into the DP projected off the 11:18 AM EST high.

I know, too much time on my hands.

And so long as the final result of the day is the market ends higher(as I am long), I really could care less how it gets there. But these little excercises keep the brain from freezing.

Well the TS3 on the 5 min NQ is the same exact pattern..lets see how that works out..

[d-day]

Them bandits done stole my DP trade.

[d-day]

Them bandits done stole my DP trade.

Well I'm glad to see them bandits were given plenty of rope with which to hang themselves right proper!

[d-day]

ES looks like it may give one of those DP Fade the gap trades here at the open.

[d-day]

ES looks like it may give one of those DP Fade the gap trades here at the open.


You have got to love these Opening DP trades. I took enough off the table to call it a good day, and I have a few left that I'll check on around 3PM EST this afternoon. They'll either have been stopped out sometime during the day, or MTP will have allowed us to sell the HOD (what more could a daytrader ask for nudge nudge ;) ;) ).

It doesn't matter to me. It's cold, wet, and snowy outside, and the kids are home for the day.

My work is done. Its time to play.

Good luck to all who trade today.

[Steve Griffiths]

Guys..........

While the US may be tricky at the momnet, the Guys in Europe are having a ball !!!!

+10R porfit on the 5min Dax here........... what a trade :)

Steve

[Stefan61200]

Hi Steve,

in the last two days I went thru all your PDF helpfiles concerning ATR Stop, Quick Start, trading larger degree, etc.

Today I went short YM 3 mins @ 12483 which was a major DP area at the 15 mins chart. Was this a "valid" trade even with a blue STF or were the TS signals at ES reflecting the major trend?

Thank you
Stefan

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Steve,

in the last two days I went thru all your PDF helpfiles concerning ATR Stop, Quick Start, trading larger degree, etc.

Today I went short YM 3 mins @ 12483 which was a major DP area at the 15 mins chart. Was this a "valid" trade even with a blue STF or were the TS signals at ES reflecting the major trend?

Thank you
Stefan

Hi Stefan,

I woudl have prefered to see an initial risk of above 2:1 at the first minor target


Steve

[Stefan61200]

Hi Stefan,

I woudl have prefered to see an initial risk of above 2:1 at the first minor target


Steve

Hi Steve,

thanks a lot for this eye-opener. I haven't seen this first minor target. I need to exercise my eyes a little bit more.

Stefan

[edfash]

still working

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

ES just reached first target (+4R)............. nice

Steve

[bates]

Hi Everybody

ES just reached first target (+4R)............. nice

Steve

Hi Steve,

+4R....nice.! Not bad for a first live trade. Although it did make me sweat a little along the way.

Rob

[unkelmark]

Hi Steve, i didn't get a TS3 buy setup on the ES today.

I did get a TS2 @ 10:45am EST.

What time frame was your TS3?


Regards,

Mark

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Mark,

Please see attached, on a 3min chart with 9:30 - 4:15 time templates

Two great trades.........:)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

As a PS, I am using build 41 Beta

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

There was also a great tarde on the Russell yesterday (for those of you who tarde the Russell) as well......

A +6R profit.

Steve

[TAS]

Hi Steve,

Nice trade indeed, I was in TS3 as well. My question is, I did get the DP signal firing up on NINJA's market analyser while ES made new high yesterday afternoon, but it DIDN'T show up in 3min ES chart using RT 40 beta as your chart with 41 beta, why we saw the difference (YES in market analyser and NO in real-time chart) ? Which one is the standard?

Thank you for explanation.

TAS:)


Hi Mark,

Please see attached, on a 3min chart with 9:30 - 4:15 time templates

Two great trades.........:)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Steve,

Nice trade indeed, I was in TS3 as well. My question is, I did get the DP signal firing up on NINJA's market analyser while ES made new high yesterday afternoon, but it DIDN'T show up in 3min ES chart using RT 40 beta as your chart with 41 beta, why we saw the difference (YES in market analyser and NO in real-time chart) ? Which one is the standard?

Thank you for explanation.

TAS:)

Hi Tas

Please make sure that “Display Mjr DP set-up = False” in each Colum of the Market Analyzer.

“Display Mjr DP set-up “ should also be False on your charts.

Then they will be in sync.

Thanks

[TAS]

Thank you Steve, I got the point.

TAS

Hi Tas

Please make sure that “Display Mjr DP set-up = False” in each Colum of the Market Analyzer.

“Display Mjr DP set-up “ should also be False on your charts.

Then they will be in sync.

Thanks

[Eddo]

Just gone short the Dax on nice looking TS3 at Min Wpt - let see how it does :)

[edfash]

Eddo-i'm in there with you. good luck.

[Eddo]

:) Eddo-i'm in there with you. good luck.

:) :) it looks like it might be off to a good start but as we all know anything could happen, we have a 40% chance of success and the only thing we can control now is our exit point

Good luck to us both eh :)

[Eddo]

:)

:) :) it looks like it might be off to a good start but as we all know anything could happen, we have a 40% chance of success and the only thing we can control now is our exit point

Good luck to us both eh :)

Halfway to the first minor tgt of the DP off the last Wave B - come on my son !!

[Eddo]

Halfway to the first minor tgt of the DP off the last Wave B - come on my son !!

......... and my stops now in at B/E so free from here and running on the ATR to the tgts for me

[Eddo]

......... and my stops now in at B/E so free from here and running on the ATR to the tgts for me

.... now at 1st tgt of the wave b DP - if we can break through here we look set to dive to the depths of a very good trade - keep our fingers crossed and let the ATR do its thing to keep us in this one

[Eddo]

.... now at 1st tgt of the wave b DP - if we can break through here we look set to dive to the depths of a very good trade - keep our fingers crossed and let the ATR do its thing to keep us in this one

could have topped up here for a Continuation trade with red bar setup at the DP which looks like its failed to hold - :)

[TAS]

Hello,

ER2 just completed today's mission with a nice TS2 reaching first profit target. 3.2 R UP !

anyone joyful with this, sorry pic capture function is down right now..

Cheers,

TAS:)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Two very nice TS3 sell on the Dax............... :)

After the +10R profit yesterday, the Dax is defiantly in a purple patch at the moment :) :)

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Guys

Two very nice TS3 sell on the Dax............... :)

After the +10R profit yesterday, the Dax is defiantly in a purple patch at the moment :) :)

Steve

Hi Steve

Arn't you following our Dax trade in the last two posts !! -were way ahead of you lol :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Steve

Arn't you following our Dax trade in the last two posts !! -were way ahead of you lol :)

yes, well done guys .........

steve

[Eddo]

could have topped up here for a Continuation trade with red bar setup at the DP which looks like its failed to hold - :)

I got closed out on the violation of my red bar in the first DP for a small 1.4R gain which was annoying - but 1.4 R is better than a -1R so time for a glass of Valentines day Champagne with the other half :)

Enjoy your evening all

Chris

[TAS]

Hi Steve,

TS3 sell just forming in YM 3 min following a valid 5min DP long, will you consider this sell to be valid and reverse DP long to short again based on STF color ?

Thanks:)

TAS

[edfash]

WTG on that dax trade. here we go again.

[edfash]

missed stop by a single tick

[edfash]

today's trade made a 5 wave sequence as seen on this 3200 tick chart. wave 5=1.382 wave 1 (the magenta line at 1347). wave 5 subdivided into an ABC down with A almost equal to C. after structural exhaustion price promptly retraced to a .786 retracement of wave 5 (cyan at 1357.75). the exhaustion also occurred in a manual DP off the last significant low pivot.

[TreeShaker]

today's trade made a 5 wave sequence as seen on this 3200 tick chart. wave 5=1.382 wave 1 (the magenta line at 1347). wave 5 subdivided into an ABC down with A almost equal to C. after structural exhaustion price promptly retraced to a .786 retracement of wave 5 (cyan at 1357.75). the exhaustion also occurred in a manual DP off the last significant low pivot.

Yes, but it turned back down, so now what?

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Just to be fair and and show that I do post BOTH the ugly as well as the good trades.........

After an absolutely brilliant run on the Dax with a massive +10R profit on wed then two good +3R and +5R trades earlier yesterday I wanted to show a few losses that have unfolded since............ yes all systems have losses, BUT it is by keeping the losses small that is important.

Please see below, can you see that even though there have been three losses recently, at only -1R each they are small in relation to the previous profits

Bottom line, losses can and do happen, but they are kept small, much smaller than the prior profits, this is what makes money over time

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Guys

Just to be fair and and show that I do post BOTH the ugly as well as the good trades.........

After an absolutely brilliant run on the Dax with a massive +10R profit on wed then two good +3R and +5R trades earlier yesterday I wanted to show a few losses that have unfolded since............ yes all systems have losses, BUT it is by keeping the losses small that is important.

Please see below, can you see that even though there have been three losses recently, at only -1R each they are small in relation to the previous profits

Bottom line, losses can and do happen, but they are kept small, much smaller than the prior profits, this is what makes money over time

Steve

.... ah but all good things come to those who wait :D

Look at this little beauty - its a manual DP taken this morning, with red reverse bar and divergence - i.e. a basic MTP setup in my view.

Its still running on the ATR as I speak and already has a minimum gain of 4.8R - stunning in my view

[Eddo]

.... ah but all good things come to those who wait :D

Look at this little beauty - its a manual DP taken this morning, with red reverse bar and divergence - i.e. a basic MTP setup in my view.

Its still running on the ATR as I speak and already has a minimum gain of 4.8R - stunning in my view

............ now at min +10R and its still running :)

[edfash]

great trade Eddo. congrats. you should have called. lol

[Eddo]

great trade Eddo. congrats. you should have called. lol

....... sorry you missed it edfash - I think I was the only person on the forum this morning (GMT) but I really hope some other European bods got onto this one as well - I'am still open (just) :)

[Eddo]

....... sorry you missed it edfash - I think I was the only person on the forum this morning (GMT) but I really hope some other European bods got onto this one as well - I'am still open (just) :)

......... and just been stopped out for a +11 R gain - :)

[Eddo]

Just went short the AB (Russell) on the violation of the Red bar at the DP - I am taking this effectively as a Continuation Trade south :)

[Eddo]

Just went short the AB (Russell) on the violation of the Red bar at the DP - I am taking this effectively as a Continuation Trade south :)

.. with the Trin starting to look v bullish this short of mine is not looking too hopeful, however as we all know, anything can happen, I have a 40% chance of success but the only thing I can control is my exit points which have been selected before the trade was placed .......... so I sit and wait !

[d-day]

For those who follow the Taylor Trading Technique, I have today as a buy day, and expect an early LOD and a close closer to the HOD than the low.

Of course, what I expect and what I get are often two entirely different things.

Good luck to all today.

[Eddo]

.. with the Trin starting to look v bullish this short of mine is not looking too hopeful, however as we all know, anything can happen, I have a 40% chance of success but the only thing I can control is my exit points which have been selected before the trade was placed .......... so I sit and wait !

... hmmm well this might be looking a bit better with the Trin now starting to head for Bearland and a valid looking TS2 short fired on the ES, so I hope David is wrong about his buy day !!

[bates]

I am short the ES on that TS2........let's see if these tight range bars on low volume is selling volume.

[Eddo]

I am short the ES on that TS2........let's see if these tight range bars on low volume is selling volume.

........ i'll drink to that !

[TreeShaker]

Well D Day did say that he expects it to go down and then up to HOD. I'm in a ER2 short @ 1036 TS3 that is doing quite nicely and if Dave is right maybe I can hitch a ride back up. :D

[Eddo]

Well D Day did say that he expects it to go down and then up to HOD. I'm in a ER2 short @ 1036 TS3 that is doing quite nicely and if Dave is right maybe I can hitch a ride back up. :D

.. ah but also worth remembering is David's quote re that if the Gap does not fill in the first 10 - 15 mins the likelyhood is that the Mkt will continue in the direction of the Gap ........... I for one would like that to be true today :)

[bates]

.. ah but also worth remembering is David's quote re that if the Gap does not fill in the first 10 - 15 mins the likelyhood is that the Mkt will continue in the direction of the Gap ........... I for one would like that to be true today :)

Now I'll drink to that.........even though it is only just past 3 in the morning here.:rolleyes:

[edfash]

so far so good on the short side

[Eddo]

Now I'll drink to that.........even though it is only just past 3 in the morning here.:rolleyes:

....... 3 in the morning - ru in Aus?

[Eddo]

so far so good on the short side

.......... nice posn there - only 20 mins left tho for it to run which is why Iam sitting on this rather lame looking AB short !

[bates]

....... 3 in the morning - ru in Aus?

I am and I was just thinking as I read Friday's newspaper how it would be good if it told me where the market was going on Friday in the US.

[Eddo]

I am and I was just thinking as I read Friday's newspaper how it would be good if it told me where the market was going on Friday in the US.

:) the time machine man eh :) if it did, you would tell all of us wouldn't you?

BTW - you should be tucked up in your scratcher not sitting there in the dark looking at a computer!!

[G Fryer]

.......... nice posn there - only 20 mins left tho for it to run which is why Iam sitting on this rather lame looking AB short !

Why is there only 20 min left?

Today is a full day as far as I could tell. Its monday (President's Day) that is a short day (trading hours-wise.)

Gillian

[bates]

:) the time machine man eh :) if it did, you would tell all of us wouldn't you?

BTW - you should be tucked up in your scratcher not sitting there in the dark looking at a computer!!

Of course I would let all here know. Sitting in the dark staring at the computer is the only sue fire way of making sure I don't have a 5th kid.:cool:

[Eddo]

Why is there only 20 min left?

Today is a full day as far as I could tell. Its monday (President's Day) that is a short day (trading hours-wise.)

Gillian

Gillian

The trade is on the FTSE (UK mkt) which closes in 10 mins (its now 16:19 GMT)

The US is a full day with Monday off - but Europe is working on Monday if you wanted to trade

Chris

[Eddo]

Of course I would let all here know. Sitting in the dark staring at the computer is the only sue fire way of making sure I don't have a 5th kid.:cool:

ahhhhhhhh ............. you could have just had a few more tubes of Fosters couldn't you ?

[G Fryer]

Gillian


The US is a full day with Monday off - but Europe is working on Monday if you wanted to trade

Chris

I'd love to trade Europe, but then I'd have to get up at 2 in the morning -- I'm in US Mountain time.

Gillian

[Eddo]

I'd love to trade Europe, but then I'd have to get up at 2 in the morning -- I'm in US Mountain time.

Gillian

Which mountains - my family spend a bit of time each year in Tahoe and our son is at Uni in Boulder and hits the Rockies most winter weekends - :)

[bates]

ahhhhhhhh ............. you could have just had a few more tubes of Fosters couldn't you ?

Yeah.....tried that theory out on the 3rd and 4th with no luck.

[Eddo]

Yeah.....tried that theory out on the 3rd and 4th with no luck.

.............. :) try Scotch next time ! - Sleep tight :D

[G Fryer]

Which mountains - my family spend a bit of time each year in Tahoe and our son is at Uni in Boulder and hits the Rockies most winter weekends - :)

Usually the Sangre de Cristos.. but I am stuck way down south looking after 'me aging dad.' We have mountains (the Organs) but rarely any snow... though they are calling for some tomorrow. We have lots of sand... and in the spring, lots of wind.

G

[Eddo]

I am short the ES on that TS2........let's see if these tight range bars on low volume is selling volume.

........ back to business - your ES is starting to look nice and near the first tgt and even my old AB trade from the third 3 min bar of the day has at last come to life - :)

[Eddo]

Usually the Sangre de Cristos.. but I am stuck way down south looking after 'me aging dad.' We have mountains (the Organs) but rarely any snow... though they are calling for some tomorrow. We have lots of sand... and in the spring, lots of wind.

G

........ - all that wind blowing all that sand sounds like it might be uncomfortable - cuz that stuff gets everwhere doesn't it :eek:

[bates]

........ back to business - your ES is starting to look nice and near the first tgt and even my old AB trade from the third 3 min bar of the day has at last come to life - :)

My stop is now at breakeven. If it would only tick down and hit that 1st tgt I'll be out. I have DP longs firing off on the NQ & ER2.......Hmmmmmmmm

[Eddo]

........ back to business - your ES is starting to look nice and near the first tgt and even my old AB trade from the third 3 min bar of the day has at last come to life - :)

........... actually I'am just about going to sleep watching this thing (my AB short trade)creep about, so I've lowered my stop to B/E and am going to read a bit of Van Tharp and just let the trade 'do its own thing' - working on the principle of 'a watched kettle never boils' :)

[Eddo]

My stop is now at breakeven. If it would only tick down and hit that 1st tgt I'll be out. I have DP longs firing off on the NQ & ER2.......Hmmmmmmmm

........ be careful of those longs for the moment because the Trin is still creeping up into Bearland ;)

[Eddo]

........ be careful of those longs for the moment because the Trin is still creeping up into Bearland ;)

for what its worth I reckon that AB 5 min Long sig is at the 15 min DP as well as the five so it might well support here - for me I stay short but cover if the Long setup looks like its going to run

[bates]

for what its worth I reckon that AB 5 min Long sig is at the 15 min DP as well as the five so it might well support here - for me I stay short but cover if the Long setup looks like its going to run

I covered the ES on the ATR trail. Now long the NQ off the DP.

[Eddo]

I covered the ES on the ATR trail. Now long the NQ off the DP.

.... me too on the AB I have reversed on the DP and am now Long

[TreeShaker]

I got stopped out on the ER at 697 for a 2.3R profit. :D I didn't take the long because I haven't learned to turn my hat around that fast. For those of you that did, best of trading to you.

[Eddo]

I got stopped out on the ER at 697 for a 2.3R profit. :D I didn't take the long because I haven't learned to turn my hat around that fast. For those of you that did, best of trading to you.

... good job on your 2.3 - I only got a small gain on the short AB but its no long so we will see if that gain will get bigger or smaller !

[edfash]

a difficult question to answer and i've had to establish an order of priority so that when signals arise in differrent markets simultaneously i have my pecking order. i still have the ftse and dax high on my list till the ftse closes at 5:30 london time.
my ftse did stop out for a small profit and i am long the ER on the 3 min DP buy.

[Eddo]

.... me too on the AB I have reversed on the DP and am now Long

........ ding - thats me stopped out of the Long for a 1R loss - looks like I should have trusted my instinct re the Trin and stayed short. Taking the DP long was however in my view the correct decision even if it did fail

[bates]

........ ding - thats me stopped out of the Long for a 1R loss - looks like I should have trusted my instinct re the Trin and stayed short. Taking the DP long was however in my view the correct decision even if it did fail

Ditto for me......

[edfash]

count me in on that -1R

[edfash]

actually a little less than -1R, the atr stop had moved up a bit

[TreeShaker]

Dave, it looks like your Taylor buy cycle may be starting.

[TAS]

My thinking is nowadays who else wants to hold their stock overnight, or even in such long weekend, fears what will be worsening in the days ahead, instead of worrying about missing the bull run...

As we see this IS the bear market, regardless how strong the rebound might be on celebrity's speech.

Good trading to ALL and have a happy President Day.

TAS:)

Dave, it looks like your Taylor buy cycle may be starting.

[kbednar]

My thinking is nowadays who else wants to hold their stock overnight, or even in such long weekend, fears what will be worsening in the days ahead, instead of worrying about missing the bull run...

As we see this IS the bear market, regardless how strong the rebound might be on celebrity's speech.

Good trading to ALL and have a happy President Day.

TAS:)

Tas:
I agree that this is a Bear Market. I am in no way an EW expert, so I look to people who are ( or think they are). Here is what they say. Look for the S&P to bottom around 1100 points later in the year. Then after elections, look for a rally to almost the previous highs in 2009. After that, look for a 3 year bear market continuation in the US markets. Hey......lets see how good they are, and take many MTP trades along the way.

Ken :)

[TAS]

Good quote Ken,

we should be always open-minded in trading, for me at THIS PARTICULAR MOMENT, I would't be long, on the contrary, big cap market is still a bit shy or the DP in MTP view, let's see how market shows its hand. however as generally part of the market participants will be eager to earlier finishing their job, I woundn't expect any chance untilllllllll......Tuesday.

TAS


Tas:
I agree that this is a Bear Market. I am in no way an EW expert, so I look to people who are ( or think they are). Here is what they say. Look for the S&P to bottom around 1100 points later in the year. Then after elections, look for a rally to almost the previous highs in 2009. After that, look for a 3 year bear market continuation in the US markets. Hey......lets see how good they are, and take many MTP trades along the way.

Ken :)

[d-day]

For those who follow the Taylor Trading Technique, I have today as a buy day, and expect an early LOD and a close closer to the HOD than the low.


ES Low 1338.25

ES High 1351.75

ES Close 1351.25

Put that together with what my good buddy jjc said to me earlier today, "buy support and sell resist dude," and you have money in the bank.

Have a good weekend.

d-day

[d-day]

Dave, it looks like your Taylor buy cycle may be starting.

Hi there Timberdude,

Taylor Trading Cycle has been running on its own for many a moon, all without my or any one else's say so. The buy day low was signalled this morning during the 8AM EST hour - no 2 PM this afternoon. The trading cycle is meant to point out the major intraday swing direction, not the many smaller intermediate and minor swing scalp directions. If you were playing the trading cycle, you would have bought the ES either in the premarket when CNBC was wailing "Woe is we" or around the release of the sentiment numbers 10 am when the market made a run at, but faild to take out the Globex lows. You then held through the noiese until the close. In the meantime, you can daytrade the intermediate intraday swings using MTP on the ER2, NQ, and YM.

Have a great weekend,

d-day

[d-day]

and please forgive the typos and ellided letters - I was typing in haste and even when I take my time, "noise" can come out "noiese" and "not" can become "no" etc. etc.

[d-day]

For those who follow the Taylor Trading Technique, I have today as a buy day, and expect an early LOD and a close closer to the HOD than the low.


And I know there are those who think this trading cycle talk is a bunch of bunk. But it is amazing what even someone as unintelligent as I can come up with if you apply yourself. As I was adjusting the scale on my trading cycle chart that I posted here earlier tonight, I noticed a purple text target of 1370-73-ish that I had placed there during the cash session on 2/12 and I posted here during that morning. The ES traded to 1370.50 just before the close that day and hit 1371.50 in the overnight globex session eading into the sell short day. I know fone of our fellow MTP'ers whowas filled on a sell limit order to go short at 1371 while he slept! So it isn't just me - if you read the charts you can learn an awful lot about where price is going in the short term - and what it is likely to do once it gets there.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

A nice quick +3.5R Profit here on the 3min FTSE :)

Steve

[d-day]

And I know there are those who think this trading cycle talk is a bunch of bunk ... [but] if you read the charts you can learn an awful lot about where price is going in the short term - and what it is likely to do once it gets there.

Here are two charts - the first is the chart I posted at the end of the day on Friday 2/15/2008 (see my immediately prior post) where you will see that the sell day objective was 1358-70. In today's foreshortened holiday trading session, the ES traded to a high of 1368.50, with a 1368 close.

Neat stuff, if you ask me.

[jay21]

Here are two charts - the first is the chart I posted at the end of the day on Friday 2/15/2008 (see my immediately prior post) where you will see that the sell day objective was 1358-70. In today's foreshortened holiday trading session, the ES traded to a high of 1368.50, with a 1368 close.

Neat stuff, if you ask me.

Very neat stuff I agree Dave!

When you project these daily objectives, do you rely on DP-areas in any way or is it some completely different tool you use...?

I've been trying to use the Taylor technique myself, but I sadly got lost somewhere along the way from when we last discussed it here on the forum, where I felt I could no longer locate the buy/sell/sellshort-cycle, but looking at yesterday as a sell and going back in time I agree it makes a lot of sense lately.

I didn't believe that yesterday should be counted as part of the cycle as the equity markets were closed - but as I understand it you want to count yesterday as a sell-day. So you look forward to a sell short-day today then?

Best of trading luck!!

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Here is one for the "advanced traders" among you.

A nice "trend continuation" trade that is currently on +7R Profit from the "failure" of the Typical Wave C WPT............

This "advanced" set-up was covered in an "advanced Seminar" a month or so ago..........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Here is one for the "advanced traders" among you.

A nice "trend continuation" trade that is currently on +7R Profit from the "failure" of the Typical Wave C WPT............

This "advanced" set-up was covered in an "advanced Seminar" a month or so ago..........

Steve

Update - now on a +10R Profit !!

Steve

[d-day]

When you project these daily objectives, do you rely on DP-areas in any way or is it some completely different tool you use...?

You cannot hope to learn the TTT without having read Taylor's book, which is admittedly difficult to read (he was the master of the sentence fragment, the run on sentence, and the pronoun reference problem). Despite those difficulties, if you really want to learn the TTT method, you must be committed to studying his book. The Linda Raschke article is but an introduction, and the George Angell articles try to explain away those parts of the method that don't neatly fit into his LSS 3 day cycle system. In fact, it is telling that Taylor refers to his technique as "The Book Method" while Angell refers to his LSS version as a "system." If you read Taylor, you will learn what is meant by objective points.

I've been trying to use the Taylor technique myself, but I sadly got lost somewhere along the way from when we last discussed it here on the forum, where I felt I could no longer locate the buy/sell/sellshort-cycle, but looking at yesterday as a sell and going back in time I agree it makes a lot of sense lately.

If you haven't read Taylor himself, but are instead relying upon Angell's essays or my few postings on it, then you are not ever going to understand it. The TTT takes study and work to understand, but it is well worth the time invested.

I didn't believe that yesterday should be counted as part of the cycle as the equity markets were closed - but as I understand it you want to count yesterday as a sell-day. So you look forward to a sell short-day today then?

I will be looking at price action at and around the relevant objective points. Whether or not to "count" yesterday is an open question. What is without question, however, is that the market did exhibit the necessary price action yesterday to meet the expectations of a sell day. Remember, TTT is a method, not a system by which you mechanically buy, sell, and sell short the market. I use it to give me a bias going into the day. For example, I am not like Matt Bowen, who takes all buy and sell signals. I like to have my MTP signals in alignment with the TTT. But that is me. Also, if price is doing something other than expected, I do at times take signals that are contrary to where I thought price was with respect to the short-term cycle.


Time to trade, I'll try to post more later.

Good luck to all!

[G Fryer]

I've been trying to use the Taylor technique myself, but I sadly got lost somewhere along the way from when we last discussed it here on the forum, where I felt I could no longer locate the buy/sell/sellshort-cycle, but looking at yesterday as a sell and going back in time I agree it makes a lot of sense lately.

I didn't believe that yesterday should be counted as part of the cycle as the equity markets were closed - but as I understand it you want to count yesterday as a sell-day. So you look forward to a sell short-day today then?

Best of trading luck!!

I think it is open to a lot of interpretation... and you see what you want to see. If you read the original book, Taylor says to review the last ten days and circle the highest high, making that a buy day, and then count forward and backwards by three for buy days, sell days follow buy days and short days follow sell days. BUT, he acknowledges there can be up to 5 days in the cycle when the market is very strong or very weak, where buy and/or short days can be doubled. He also acknowledges that the cycles may be shorter than a day. Lately it seems like we've been having two day cycles.

I put the last definitive buy day as the 13th, with friday being a short day morphing into a buy day. Yesterday was a buy day which might continue into today or we could have the sell zig-zag day. I'm sure by the end of the day I could come up with a different interpretation.

The danger is if you use the interpretation of cycles to force a position despite what the markets are telling you.

Gillian

[jay21]

Dave and Gillian,

thanks a lot on your input on TTT. I guess it can't all be too simple or it wouldn't work...:) Suppose I just may have to read that book...

[d-day]

I think it is open to a lot of interpretation... and you see what you want to see ... I put the last definitive buy day as the 13th, with friday being a short day morphing into a buy day. Yesterday was a buy day which might continue into today or we could have the sell zig-zag day. I'm sure by the end of the day I could come up with a different interpretation.


I had thursday as a sell short day that started as such and finished as such, friday as a buy day that started like a buy day and finished like a buy day, yesterday a sell day, and so far today is living up to the requirements/expectations of a sell short day.

Of course, the market can do whatever it wishes to do, and we might very well see the SP's finish 40 points higher than there current 1362; or, we may just bounce between the morning's high and low all day long.

That being said, I came into the day with a short bias. Price subsequently opened and traded up into the objective point: objective in that it is both a target (the objective or goal of upward buying pressure) and also objective in that it is readily seen by all (it is based on observable price action and not what I say it is, and at the very least the objective point is therefore not subjective, or open to interpretation). I've scaled out with profits enough that I will still have a good day even if price reverses and stops out my remaining position.

By using Taylor's objective points, you will protect yourself from seeing what you want to see. Taylor does caution, however, that as the trader "develops and learns and begins to anticipate the moves he will find that he must tone down his courage and the impulse to make a trade too soon." In other words, trade only at or near the objective points, but wait for price to confirm that it is reacting to those points as you anticipated it would prior to putting on the trade.

Also, Taylor acknowledges that his method is basically a 50/50 odds method. A trader using Taylor's method will see that "his plays are an even break that he will make a profit, much greater when he wins than the loss when he loses. Any method," he continues, "that gives you a 50-50 chance is a pretty good one with all it's faults."

[d-day]

Also, Taylor acknowledges that his method is basically a 50/50 odds method. A trader using Taylor's method will see that "his plays are an even break that he will make a profit, much greater when he wins than the loss when he loses. Any method," he continues, "that gives you a 50-50 chance is a pretty good one with all it's faults."

I've been trying to apply Taylor's method to my trading since this past summer (actually since feb 4 of 2007 which was the day I first started to study his book - so over one year now). And as I have gained experience with it, I would have to say that with respect to the S&P, the method has become closer to 70% accurate as far as anticipating the overall trend of the day.

[jands]

Hi Dave,

When you say "objective", does the method give you a price target or range?

Thanks for your posts.

Jim

[d-day]

Hi Dave,

When you say "objective", does the method give you a price target or range?

Thanks for your posts.

Jim

Hi Jim,

The objective point is just that - a price point, i.e. a specific price. According to Taylor, your goal on a short sale day is to sell at, slightly below, or above (note - not "slightly above," just above) that objective point, which suggests a range. So the method uses an objective price point that I expand into a range using nearby support and resistance levels.

I hope this helps.

Again, there is really no substitute for sitting down with the book and studying it (and I do mean study - if you just "read" it you will likely come away with an incomplete and inaccuarte understanding of the method; or you will come away like so many of the folks who I have seen post about it elsewhere who say such brilliant things like "well it may have worked in the grain pits in the 50's but it won't work in today's electronic markets"). It is a brilliant book, the brilliance of which is unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately for those with the patience and desire to study it) occluded due to the fact that it has been written in a most confusing, ungrammatic, and highly unreadable manner.

[jands]

Hi Jim,

The objective point is just that - a price point, i.e. a specific price. According to Taylor, your goal on a short sale day is to sell at, slightly below, or above (note - not "slightly above," just above) that objective point, which suggests a range. So the method uses an objective price point that I expand into a range using nearby support and resistance levels.

I hope this helps.

Again, there is really no substitute for sitting down with the book and studying it (and I do mean study - if you just "read" it you will likely come away with an incomplete and inaccuarte understanding of the method; or you will come away like so many of the folks who I have seen post about it elsewhere who say such brilliant things like "well it may have worked in the grain pits in the 50's but it won't work in today's electronic markets"). It is a brilliant book, the brilliance of which is unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately for those with the patience and desire to study it) occluded due to the fact that it has been written in a most confusing, ungrammatic, and highly unreadable manner.

Thanks Dave,

I appreciate your input, it sounds very interesting (though not easy). It should make a great tool for a trading tool box and be a better guide. It will be on my next to read book list. Also thanks for your reference to Angell, he is where I first heard of the method and with his limited explanation of the method, he made it about useless.

Thanks again and good trading,

Jim

BTW, I know you're up north, which state?

[d-day]

The ES has put nearly 15 points between the objective short sale point and the low of the day thus far. The ES has declined in three clearly identifiable and symmetrical pushes to the downside (I'm looking specificaly at the 3 minute ES). I do not know if we have struck the LOD or not, but if you were trading the TTT, you should at least be satisfied with calling this a short sale day, regardless of how we close the day out. In my opinion, however, we have now reached 11:30 EST, so a counter trend bounce that ultimately resolves itself in new lows after 1-3 hours of sideways price action is the highest odds bet. Of course, we all know that the best odds do not always result in winning bets. I will be looking for MTP sell signals as my favored play this afternoon.

[d-day]

I will be looking for MTP sell signals as my favored play this afternoon.


Nice looking TS3 sells on the 3 minute YM and 3 minute NQ.

[d-day]

Nice looking TS3 sells on the 3 minute YM and 3 minute NQ.


egads - the YM and NQ have gotten a bit wild and wooly lately, it seems.

[Steve Griffiths]

TS4 sells now comming in..............

Steve

[d-day]

TS4 sells now comming in..............

Steve

Yupsir - we got us a nice TS4 on the 3 minute ES with divergence on that old standby the 5,3,3 stochastic.

[jay21]

Yupsir - we got us a nice TS4 on the 3 minute ES with divergenc on that old standby the 5,3,3 stochastic.

Dave, I see what you mean.

But just a question to you on divergence. Doesn't one want to look at the peaks when searching for divergence. The value of the 5,3,3 stoch is actually lower at the ES 3 min peak at 12.15 EST compared to the peak at 1.20 pm EST..., so I passed on it for this reason.

Which was obviously wrong looking back...:( - whaddoya think?

[d-day]

But just a question to you on divergence. Doesn't one want to look at the peaks when searching for divergence. The value of the 5,3,3 stoch is actually lower at the ES 3 min peak at 12.15 EST compared to the peak at 1.20 pm EST..., so I passed on it for this reason.


I haven't backtested divergence peak matching myself. Maybe someone else here has. My sense is that while it would be preferable to see the momo peaks at the price peaks, nevertheless, divergence is divergence. I remember Pegasus once posting that divergence was so powerful that he didn't need a DP to take a divegrence trade, he just needed divergence. So we had divergence, and furthermore MTP showed us a favorable risk/reward entry point. Other than that, all I know is that this is a short sale day, and, as I posted earlier:

In my opinion ... we have now reached 11:30 EST, so a counter trend bounce that ultimately resolves itself in new lows after 1-3hours of sideways price action is the highest odds bet ... I will be looking for MTP sell signals as my favored play this afternoon.

As my good buddy jjc has often posted here, "Plan your trade, and trade your plan."

Are we indeed going to see new lows on the ES this afternoon? I have no clue. But my plan tells me that the odds are higher that we see new lows than that we see new highs. As it is, the TS4 got me short again at 1362.75, I have taken profits on half the position at 1359.75 (my typical three point profit habit) and I now have half left with a stop at breakeven. "Plan your trade, and trade your plan."

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Jay,

Very often the oscilator peaks on a differnet bar to the price

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

"Plan your trade, and trade your plan"

Very good advice from David there

[jay21]

[QUOTE=David Day;14651]I haven't backtested divergence peak matching myself. Maybe someone else here has. My sense is that while it would be preferable to see the momo peaks at the price peaks, nevertheless, divergence is divergence. I remember Pegasus once posting that divergence was so powerful that he didn't need a DP to take a divegrence trade, he just needed divergence. So we had divergence, and furthermore MTP showed us a favorable risk/reward entry point.

Thanks a lot Dave - I guess I fall in the trap of asking for such perfection in the setup that the number of trades taken fall short of the ideal...

[jay21]

Hi Jay,

Very often the oscilator peaks on a differnet bar to the price

Steve

Thanks Steve - yeah maybe one should not see that as that much of a negative...

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

The TS4 sell on the DAX just reached its target for +6.4R :)

Steve

[d-day]

Are we indeed going to see new lows on the ES this afternoon?

Yes, we are, indeed.

[Steve Griffiths]

Quickly followed by the ES .................

Steve

[jjc]

Yes, we are, indeed.

you are a genius my friend !

if you ever open up ur own blog make sure you let me know


:)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody.

Today has been a brilliant example of how to apply "disciplined " trading to the market.

David set out his "plan" (before the market opened) and then had the patience and discipline to execute it perfectly

The result, he used the automatic MTP set-ups to get him short (as he was anticipating a down day) and as such has benefited from this nice decline.,

All in all, a brilliant example of how to be a structured and disciplined trader... well done David

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Now on +7R :)

Steve

[d-day]

Hi Everybody.

Today has been a brilliant example of how to apply "disciplined " trading to the market.

David set out his "plan" (before the market opened) and then had the patience and discipline to execute it perfectly

The result, he used the automatic MTP set-ups to get him short (as he was anticipating a down day) and as such has benefited from this nice decline.,

All in all, a brilliant example of how to be a structured and disciplined trader... well done David

Steve

Thanks Steve ... a very stree free way to trade, I might add. Do your analysis and decide whether you want to be a buyer or a seller, and then wait for MTP to signal a set-up in the direction you anticipate.

[kbednar]

Now on +7R :)

Steve

Hi Steve:

Please tell me why you would not have been stopped out at the first pullback to the ATR, which it plainly hit, on the ES example you posted. Unless I am seeing things.
Thanks

Ken

[d-day]

Hi Steve:

Please tell me why you would not have been stopped out at the first pullback to the ATR, which it plainly hit, on the ES example you posted. Unless I am seeing things.
Thanks

Ken


Hi Ken,

I don't know how Steve handled that, but I was stopped out there on the 1/2 position I had remaining. As I was expecting a down move, I placed a sell stop at 1360.50, which was a break of the low of the 14:24 EST bar on which I was stopped out (as you note, the ATR stop). If the MTP trade was in the direction of what I anticpate the trend to be, I will always re-enter if the low of the bar that took me out is exceeded to the downside (and vice versa for longs). I usually do not move my stop to breakeven so quickly, and I attribute having done so to "pilot error" - I usually leave at least two ticks between my stop and my entry until after my entry point is retested as resistance.

[Steve Griffiths]

As David was anticipating a down day and new lows expected, it did not make sense to adjust the stop too early....

As outlined in the "Intro to MTP" PDF, the ATRStop was not used until the strength band on the STF was exceeded........

I hope this helps

Result - a nice +5.2R profit


Steve

[kbednar]

As David was anticipating a down day and new lows expected, it did not make sense to adjust the stop too early....

As outlined in the "Intro to MTP" PDF, the ATRStop was not used until the strength band on the STF was exceeded........

I hope this helps

Result - a nice +5.2R profit


Steve

Thank you very much for the explanations David and Steve.

Ken

[jay21]

Hi Ken,

I don't know how Steve handled that, but I was stopped out there on the 1/2 position I had remaining. As I was expecting a down move, I placed a sell stop at 1360.50, which was a break of the low of the 14:24 EST bar on which I was stopped out (as you note, the ATR stop). If the MTP trade was in the direction of what I anticpate the trend to be, I will always re-enter if the low of the bar that took me out is exceeded to the downside (and vice versa for longs). I usually do not move my stop to breakeven so quickly, and I attribute having done so to "pilot error" - I usually leave at least two ticks between my stop and my entry until after my entry point is retested as resistance.

Very interesting way of handling that ATR-stop problem Dave - great tip -thanks!

So what about today - do you expect a Buy-day in TTT-terms?

[d-day]

Very interesting way of handling that ATR-stop problem Dave - great tip -thanks!

So what about today - do you expect a Buy-day in TTT-terms?

Just to be clear, I do not use the ATR very often, and I was not using it yesterday. As I said in my post, my stop would normally have been moved to 1363.25 - two ticks above my 62.75 entry, until that 62.75 was tested as resistance. I made a mistake and moved my stop to breakeven too soon. It was a mere coincidence that the ATR was the same as my entry at the time.

As far as today goes, the cycle is looking for a buy day, with the low set prior to the high. If you study Taylor's method, however, you will learn that there are Buy Days, there are Buy Days High Made First, and there are Buying Day Low Violations. Angell explains all these away by telling folks to "move" or "reset" the cycle, which may work at times, but it distorts Taylor's method. Also, I re-read Linda Raschke's essay published in the Trader's Press version of Taylor's book last night. I do not agree with her that you should only read the chapter entitled "pertinent points," nor that you should not keep a book. I use excel to keep a Taylor-like book, and it has gone a long way toward helping me grasp this method.

I tried to get long at 1333, but I failed to get a fill that low, and I had to settle for a long at 1335.75. It looks like a big gap down, so I will be cautious, to say the least, if price immediatley and strongly starts to trend in the directio of the gap. It is one thing to anticipate a Buy Day, and it is entirely another thing to insist against all evidence to the conrary that a Buy Day is being confirmed. I am always mindful of Trader Vic's admonition with respect to gap days.

Good Luck today,

d-day

[jjc]

Very interesting way of handling that ATR-stop problem Dave - great tip -thanks!

So what about today - do you expect a Buy-day in TTT-terms?

buy today , full moon

[jay21]

Just to be clear, I do not use the ATR very often, and I was not using it yesterday. As I said in my post, my stop would normally have been moved to 1363.25 - two ticks above my 62.75 entry, until that 62.75 was tested as resistance. I made a mistake and moved my stop to breakeven too soon. It was a mere co