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d-day
02-20-2008, 02:26 PM
Wow, smooth move, esp since the signal was shut out... just before it took off again!
G
Not so smooth really - the MTP TS2 signal got filled long about 12 minutes before blast off. I do not know why the signal is now reduced to a triangle, because price never touched the stop loss, and in my book, that was a winning MTPredictor trade. Target was hit, profits are booked.
Not so smooth really - the MTP TS2 signal got filled long about 12 minutes before blast off. I do not know why the signal is now reduced to a triangle, because price never touched the stop loss, and in my book, that was a winning MTYP trade. Target was hit, profits are booked.
...snap :)
d-day
02-20-2008, 02:28 PM
By the looks of the 15 minute price/volume pattern - we have a mini-bull flag there and this thing should be abput primed for lift off
I didn't have time to take a white background screen shot of this mini flag at the time as I was up to my elbows in ES. Here is a shot that shows the mini-flag price and volume pattern well.
d-day
02-20-2008, 02:50 PM
that little birdie you had singing so beautifully some time ago
is singing that the SPX goes out or at least "hovers" near 1357 today, in case you were wondering. Little birdie is like TTT in this respect, not always right, but mostly right. And with the SPX having shown an opening print this morning around the 1337ish area, and subsequently trading to a (thus far) high of 1358.25, I'd say we have to give this day to her as wellregardless of where we close.
jay21
02-20-2008, 03:47 PM
is singing that the SPX goes out or at least "hovers" near 1357 today, in case you were wondering. Little birdie is like TTT in this respect, not always right, but mostly right. And with the SPX having shown an opening print this morning around the 1337ish area, and subsequently trading to a (thus far) high of 1358.25, I'd say we have to give this day to her as wellregardless of where we close.
Ie the song is still as clear and beautiful as ever:)
As you know I am just starting to studying G Taylor original work - in it aren't there descriptions on how to work out specific price levels of importance for each day...?
And if so do you feel those levels work - I presume not as well as your birdie sings, but still...?
d-day
02-20-2008, 04:03 PM
As you know I am just starting to studying G Taylor original work - in it aren't there descriptions on how to work out specific price levels of importance for each day...?
Taylor's method is based upon identifying the short term trading cycle, and the relevant "objective points," i.e. price points at which you look to buy or sell depending upon where we are in the cycle. Today's Buy Day objective point was 1345.25. As today was a buy day, the plan was to be a buyer of the ES at that price, slightly above that price, or anywhere below that price, so long as there was confirming price action, i.e. evidence that price was finding support.
jay21
02-20-2008, 04:10 PM
Taylor's method is based upon identifying the short term trading cycle, and the relevant "objective points," i.e. price points at which you look to buy or sell depending upon where we are in the cycle. Today's Buy Day objective point was 1345.25. As today was a buy day, the plan was to be a buyer of the ES at that price, slightly above that price, or anywhere below that price, so long as there was confirming price action, i.e. evidence that price was finding support.
Cool - and that price 1345.25 very much looked like it was a very important resistance level today!!
d-day
02-20-2008, 04:29 PM
Cool - and that price 1345.25 very much looked like it was a very important resistance level today!!
And price never looked back after that 1345.25 was breached to the upside.
As I've said before, neat stuff.
And by the way, had price been rejected at that 1345.25, and then trended to new lows, you would then have likely been experiencing a Buy Day High Made First. In such cases, Trader Vic's Gap Rule would have applied.
TreeShaker
02-20-2008, 04:34 PM
Taylor's method is based upon identifying the short term trading cycle, and the relevant "objective points," i.e. price points at which you look to buy or sell depending upon where we are in the cycle. Today's Buy Day objective point was 1345.25. As today was a buy day, the plan was to be a buyer of the ES at that price, slightly above that price, or anywhere below that price, so long as there was confirming price action, i.e. evidence that price was finding support.
Did you get into any other trades while that one was making it's way to the target? There was a nice TS1 on the 2 min NQ that was good for 1.6R that I missed, asleep at the wheel. :rolleyes:
jay21
02-20-2008, 05:02 PM
And price never looked back after that 1345.25 was breached to the upside.
As I've said before, neat stuff.
And by the way, had price been rejected at that 1345.25, and then trended to new lows, you would then have likely been experiencing a Buy Day High Made First. In such cases, Trader Vic's Gap Rule would have applied.
Great man - loads of timber onto the motivational fire for reading up on the Taylor book!!
Have a nice evening!!
d-day
02-20-2008, 05:09 PM
singing that the SPX goes out or at least "hovers" near 1357 today
I am showing a preliminary $SPX settlement at 1360.03
How's that little birdie sound?
is singing that the SPX goes out or at least "hovers" near 1357 today, in case you were wondering. Little birdie is like TTT in this respect, not always right, but mostly right. And with the SPX having shown an opening print this morning around the 1337ish area, and subsequently trading to a (thus far) high of 1358.25, I'd say we have to give this day to her as wellregardless of where we close.
looks like ur going to miss that lil birdie number by a tick - u really need to work on that :)
mitch
02-20-2008, 09:47 PM
Just to be clear, I do not use the ATR very often, and I was not using it yesterday. As I said in my post, my stop would normally have been moved to 1363.25 - two ticks above my 62.75 entry, until that 62.75 was tested as resistance. I made a mistake and moved my stop to breakeven too soon. It was a mere coincidence that the ATR was the same as my entry at the time.
As far as today goes, the cycle is looking for a buy day, with the low set prior to the high. If you study Taylor's method, however, you will learn that there are Buy Days, there are Buy Days High Made First, and there are Buying Day Low Violations. Angell explains all these away by telling folks to "move" or "reset" the cycle, which may work at times, but it distorts Taylor's method. Also, I re-read Linda Raschke's essay published in the Trader's Press version of Taylor's book last night. I do not agree with her that you should only read the chapter entitled "pertinent points," nor that you should not keep a book. I use excel to keep a Taylor-like book, and it has gone a long way toward helping me grasp this method.
I tried to get long at 1333, but I failed to get a fill that low, and I had to settle for a long at 1335.75. It looks like a big gap down, so I will be cautious, to say the least, if price immediatley and strongly starts to trend in the directio of the gap. It is one thing to anticipate a Buy Day, and it is entirely another thing to insist against all evidence to the conrary that a Buy Day is being confirmed. I am always mindful of Trader Vic's admonition with respect to gap days.
Good Luck today,
d-day
Hi David. Whilst I am not an active Emini trader (living in Aust, trading hours in these instruments are rather unsociable given I work f/time) I have been reading this thread regarding the Short term cycle with great interest. I dabble mainly in Forex and was curious if inyou view Taylor's approach could equally apply to other markets (eg. Forex) or do you think that the Buy, Sell, Sell Short cycle (behaviour?) is unique to the Futures market?
Many thanks
Mitch
d-day
02-21-2008, 09:56 AM
Hi David. Whilst I am not an active Emini trader (living in Aust, trading hours in these instruments are rather unsociable given I work f/time) I have been reading this thread regarding the Short term cycle with great interest. I dabble mainly in Forex and was curious if inyou view Taylor's approach could equally apply to other markets (eg. Forex) or do you think that the Buy, Sell, Sell Short cycle (behaviour?) is unique to the Futures market?
Many thanks
Mitch
Hi Mitch,
Taylor's Trading Technique is based upon what he identified as an inherent and enduring cyclical nature in trading markets. Foreign currencies markets, as markets, share in this nature, cycling between highs and lows, resistance and support, selling and buying. My experience with forex markets has been that trends tend to persist a few days longer than in other markets. This is probably due to the true 24 hour, international nature of currency trading. Yes, the SP's trade overnight in globex, but that is not the same as the foreign exchange market where the market is exposed to three large liquidity pools during a 24 hour cycle. So, I guess what I am saying is that caution is advised and study and observation required over a period of time prior to applying the TTT to forex daily charts.
I have often noticed that intraday trends in the currencies often change direction at certain, regular times of the day - the London open, the New York Open, the London close, the NY close, the Tokyo open. It does seem to me that the TTT cycle does play itself out not over 3-5 days as in the stock indices, but during the course of a 24-36 hour period.
I have not tried to trade forex based on applying TTT to this observation (and certainly more observation and study would be warranted prior to making a judgement as to its applicability). I do believe, that there is Buy, Sell, Short Sell cycle to forex; but I do not yet know, with any degree of certainty, the time period over which the cycle, on avergage, plays out.
d-day
02-21-2008, 11:35 AM
Anyone else here short?
Anyone else here short?
Yup - from the DP at the start - just a bit busy watching it :)
jay21
02-21-2008, 11:38 AM
Anyone else here short?
I shorted the ES at the open but was sadly stopped out...
d-day
02-21-2008, 11:39 AM
Yup - from the DP at the start - just a bit busy watching it :)
I'll be watching for a potential 3 minute DP buy soon too if we ever get down to the 1358 level or so on the ES - need momo and closing price reversal to confirm, but I don't always stand on formalities;)
I shorted the ES at the open but was sadly stopped out...
......... that ES short shouldn't have been stopped out Jay - it didn't get anywhere near my stop on the 5 min - did you take it on the 3 ?
d-day
02-21-2008, 11:43 AM
Of course, a little birde sang in my ear that 1354 would be a number to watch for today.
;) I'll be watching for a potential 3 minute DP buy soon too if we ever get down to the 1358 level or so on the ES - need momo and closing price reversal to confirm, but I don't always stand on formalities;)
;) Trin moving UP = market going down - of course I haven't a clue but worth a peek :)
bates
02-21-2008, 11:44 AM
Yep....short the 5min ES and now we get buy signals across the board.:confused:
I'll be watching for a potential 3 minute DP buy soon too if we ever get down to the 1358 level or so on the ES - need momo and closing price reversal to confirm, but I don't always stand on formalities;)
i'l be a buyer at es 1352.00 , maybe lol
jay21
02-21-2008, 11:45 AM
......... that ES short shouldn't have been stopped out Jay - it didn't get anywhere near my stop on the 5 min - did you take it on the 3 ?
Yup, 3 min it was - I see what you mean on the 5 min...
d-day
02-21-2008, 11:51 AM
I shorted the ES at the open but was sadly stopped out...
I was stopped out on my first bite - but you got to be willing to get back in there. Getting stopped out is just playing for a better position.
;)
;) Trin moving UP = market going down - of course I haven't a clue but worth a peek :)
...... just covere the ES short and gone Long the AB on the TS3
...... just covere the ES short and gone Long the AB on the TS3
...... bang - well that didn't last long !!
d-day
02-21-2008, 11:55 AM
;)
;) Trin moving UP = market going down - of course I haven't a clue but worth a peek :)
Funny enough ... that is exctly what I was peeking at when I heard the buy buy buy signals going off like Cramer on meth. I'm staying short for now and 1354 is in our sights.
...... bang - well that didn't last long !!
......... its quite startling isn't it ........... I tell the world to watch the Trin cuz its going UP = Mkt going down, and immediatly close my nice Short and go Long - now does that sort of thing do your head or does it do your head ;)
jay21
02-21-2008, 11:57 AM
I was stopped out on my first bite - but you got to be willing to get back in there. Getting stopped out is just playing for a better position.
Right, I agree generally - two reasons why I didn't - firstly all trend indicators pointed strongly north, secondly I have a very strict (probably too strict...) look on the DP-areas - I don't really like it to close several times beyond DP which it did in this case on the 3 min... - as per regular MTP-rules
But I suppose in this case I could have used your general recommendation of re-entering off the bar that stopped me out...
Irritating to see that trend south go...:mad:
Funny enough ... that is exctly what I was peeking at when I heard the buy buy buy signals going off like Cramer on meth. I'm staying short for now and 1354 is in our sights.
and a nice looking TS4 to give us all confidence as well
and a nice looking TS4 to give us all confidence as well
.....now would be nice
d-day
02-21-2008, 12:00 PM
......... its quite startling isn't it ........... I tell the world to watch the Trin cuz its going UP = Mkt going down, and immediatly close my nice Short and go Long - now does that sort of thing do your head or does it do your head ;)
Quite frankly, chris, I was stunned to see your post about having stopped and reversed given your experience with the TRIN.
bates
02-21-2008, 12:03 PM
Out of the ES trade at target........up 2.5R for the day. Chris you should keep posting as much as you can because the more I read your tag line the more it sinks in.
Out of the ES trade at target........up 2.5R for the day. Chris you should keep posting as much as you can because the more I read your tag line the more it sinks in.
.... I'am glad your all enjoying my mysery :)
BTW I am Long the ES - from the DP and TS4 - and the Trin looks to be heading South again
Quite frankly, chris, I was stunned to see your post about having stopped and reversed given your experience with the TRIN.
.. I know sometimes my brain departs to some unknown place!
Anyhow I am now back under control and assume that you will have now joined me in the ES Long from your DP tgt
bates
02-21-2008, 12:12 PM
Out of the ES trade at target........up 2.5R for the day. Chris you should keep posting as much as you can because the more I read your tag line the more it sinks in.
Please don't take my comment as anything other than complimentary as your tagline really does help with reinforce the discipline required in this profession.
Please don't take my comment as anything other than complimentary as your tagline really does help with reinforce the discipline required in this profession.
No offence taken my friend - glad it helps - I should read it myself before the start of each day!!
d-day
02-21-2008, 12:25 PM
.. I know sometimes my brain departs to some unknown place!
Anyhow I am now back under control and assume that you will have now joined me in the ES Long from your DP tgt
Not yet ... I have a tad different approach to entering the TS4's - I let the trade trigger, and then I wait for a pullback and a price recovery to pull me in (sort of looking for mini flags. This is real sloppy here so I don't know if I'll go long or not just yet. I am still short one ES. Stop loss is 56.50 basis 11:21 EST bar high to take me out of the short. But I have not decided if I want to go long here.
Not yet ... I have a tad different approach to entering the TS4's - I let the trade trigger, and then I wait for a pullback and a price recovery to pull me in (sort of looking for mini flags. This is real sloppy here so I don't know if I'll go long or not just yet. I am still short one ES. Stop loss is 56.50 basis 11:21 EST bar high to take me out of the short. But I have not decided if I want to go long here.
....... your right its certainly sloppy at the moment but I reckon you might just have been given your pull back ..... as always we will see but good luck to us all whichever way we are facing right now (I'am still North BTW)
d-day
02-21-2008, 12:28 PM
Not yet ... I have a tad different approach to entering the TS4's - I let the trade trigger, and then I wait for a pullback and a price recovery to pull me in (sort of looking for mini flags. This is real sloppy here so I don't know if I'll go long or not just yet. I am still short one ES. Stop loss is 56.50 basis 11:21 EST bar high to take me out of the short. But I have not decided if I want to go long here.
and then there were none - my last short was just stopped out. I'm flat for now. Good luck on the TS4 Chris and all those who are long. I'm going to sit this one out for now.
....... your right its certainly sloppy at the moment but I reckon you might just have been given your pull back ..... as always we will see but good luck to us all whichever way we are facing right now (I'am still North BTW)
.. I'am thinking that the wind has come round to my beam and I am on a nice beam reach and intend to sit here enjoying the view as we head at speed to 1372 :)
.. I'am thinking that the wind has come round to my beam and I am on a nice beam reach and intend to sit here enjoying the view as we head at speed to 1372 :)
.. would someone please remove that TS2 on the YM so my ES can get to where it wants to go ......... :)
.. would someone please remove that TS2 on the YM so my ES can get to where it wants to go ......... :)
.... thank you to whoever did that - lol
d-day
02-21-2008, 12:59 PM
.. I'am thinking that the wind has come round to my beam and I am on a nice beam reach and intend to sit here enjoying the view as we head at speed to 1372 :)
lol Chris ... good luck. Per TTT today is a Sell Day, and as such, anything is possible. We could rally to a new high, drop back to yesterday's lows, or go net sideways right here ranging around yesterday's close. I see the TRIN has dropped into a range more favorable to your position, so 1372 may be in the cards.
d-day
02-21-2008, 01:01 PM
.. would someone please remove that TS2 on the YM so my ES can get to where it wants to go ......... :)
What you really need to help your cause Chris, are some buyers - so far they are on strike on this bounce/rally attempt
lol Chris ... good luck. Per TTT today is a Sell Day, and as such, anything is possible. We could rally to a new high, drop back to yesterday's lows, or go net sideways right here ranging around yesterday's close. I see the TRIN has dropped into a range more favorable to your position, so 1372 may be in the cards.
.. thank you David - on that news I have will put in a couple of reefs, brought my stop in nice and close and let the mkt decide when to take me out - I have just over 1.4R which makes up for my rather silly AB earlier in the day and which combined with what I did get from the initial ES can retire with a minor degree of honour .......... :o
.. thank you David - on that news I have will put in a couple of reefs, brought my stop in nice and close and let the mkt decide when to take me out - I have just over 1.4R which makes up for my rather silly AB earlier in the day and which combined with what I did get from the initial ES can retire with a minor degree of honour .......... :o
........ all gone with a minor gain. This TTT thing is really really creepy - just wish the postman would get me book to me a bit faster :)
PS Thanks again for the heads up David - I owe you .5R :)
bates
02-21-2008, 01:15 PM
Just out of interest, has that TS4 vanished from everyone else's 3 min ES chart like it has on mine?:confused:
Sanjay
02-21-2008, 01:17 PM
Anybody take the TS3 short on the ER2 3 min..
d-day
02-21-2008, 01:23 PM
What you really need to help your cause Chris, are some buyers - so far they are on strike on this bounce/rally attempt
These little mini-flags minimum target is the start of the pattern - in this case 1353.25.
It can go lower, but that would be a minium - sold short at 1357.50 with a buy limit for some profits at 1353.50 Target hit and will trail a stop here until stopped out or I get a buy signal that makes me want to be long.
i'l be a buyer at es 1352.00 , maybe lol
hit my target - now, shud i buy or stay flat - hmm, what to do
d-day
02-21-2008, 01:29 PM
hit my target - now, shud i buy or stay flat - hmm, what to do
don't ask me, I'm just following the herd ;)
don't ask me, I'm just following the herd ;)
maybe i'l see what we do at spx 1350.7 , proxy for es - that looks like support intraday
d-day
02-21-2008, 01:38 PM
don't ask me, I'm just following the herd ;)
The herd made me go short some more at 1352.50 on the 3 minute mini-bear and I took them all back at the 1351.50 target because the mini-flag bears are now having to do battle with the DP Bulls.
hit my target - now, shud i buy or stay flat - hmm, what to do
....... well I'am going to have another bash at the ES long - my Trin say its OK, I have divergence and so its a valid (in my view) MTP trade ...... so for better of worse I'am in
d-day
02-21-2008, 01:42 PM
maybe i'l see what we do at spx 1350.7 , proxy for es - that looks like support intraday
Well some buyers better step up soon or this thing is just going to stair step right back on down to yesterday's lows (or pehaps the .77-.88 retrace of said lows).
Well some buyers better step up soon or this thing is just going to stair step right back on down to yesterday's lows (or pehaps the .77-.88 retrace of said lows).
cud test 57.5, huh? methinks so
d-day
02-21-2008, 01:56 PM
cud test 57.5, huh? methinks so
it might ... I'm sure I'm not the only varmint who got himself short there so I'm sure there's some folks who have their breakeven stops ready. But I have a 1344.25 measured move target, which is a point below yesterday's Buying Day Objective point and it is 1 point above the .76 retrace of yesterday's buying day low to today's selling day high so it would seem we may have a powerful attraction to lower prices for this afternoon.
d-day
02-21-2008, 01:58 PM
....... well I'am going to have another bash at the ES long - my Trin say its OK, I have divergence and so its a valid (in my view) MTP trade ...... so for better of worse I'am in
Good luck, Chris. Keep your eye on the TRIN ... methinks that after good old support and resistance that it may be our best friend on these Selling Days of the TTT cycle, and right now it is neutral but turning your way.
Good luck, Chris. Keep your eye on the TRIN ... methinks that after good old support and resistance that it may be our best friend on these Selling Days of the TTT cycle, and right now it is neutral but turning your way.
bummer, that 5min dp didnt hold
Good luck, Chris. Keep your eye on the TRIN ... methinks that after good old support and resistance that it may be our best friend on these Selling Days of the TTT cycle, and right now it is neutral but turning your way.
I fear I was doomed before I took it on - so I limp away 0.5 R down on the day rather feeling that I gave the little gains I had away - never mind - 0.5R down but still in the fight. Have a good night all, I'am off to have a Scotch :)
d-day
02-21-2008, 02:17 PM
bummer, that 5min dp didnt hold
I'm short and selling some at market now - I see nothing to keep the ES from at least tagging 1345.25
I'm short and selling some at market now - I see nothing to keep the ES from at least tagging 1345.25
yeah, that 45'ish is wher it brokeout yest - good eye
Steve Griffiths
02-21-2008, 02:27 PM
Hi Guys
Anybody check the 15min charts (ES) ? for DP resistance ?
Steve
Steve Griffiths
02-21-2008, 02:27 PM
Hi Guys
Anybody check the 15min charts (ES) ? for DP resistance ?
Steve
No wonder the sells have been the order of the day............
I fear I was doomed before I took it on - so I limp away 0.5 R down on the day rather feeling that I gave the little gains I had away - never mind - 0.5R down but still in the fight. Have a good night all, I'am off to have a Scotch :)
Just before I go I thought this was a good lesson for me
Had I understood David's TTT and known it was a Sell day, I would have stayed with my 5 min ES Short off the third bar of the day, ignored the Buy Sigs (my Trin was really never much better than Neutral) and hey ho I would still be running that initial position with over 4R in the bag so far .......... just something for me to sleep on I think :)
Enjoy
Chris
Hi Guys
Anybody check the 15min charts (ES) ? for DP resistance ?
Steve
Hey Steve - take a look at the chart and post I just put up :)
Hi Chris,
First thank you for pointing to your old thread for EXPECTANCY, which is indeed helpful...
Second, about the order of the day like Dave's TTT approach and Steve's 15min watch on ES, should I say we need the ER2 resolving itself at least reaching its first profit target based on valid 60min TS3 sell, before any meaning ful rebound on big 3... ?
Good Trading to all.
TAS:) :)
Hey Steve - take a look at the chart and post I just put up :)
Hi Chris,
First thank you for pointing to your old thread for EXPECTANCY, which is indeed helpful...
Second, about the order of the day like Dave's TTT approach and Steve's 15min watch on ES, should I say we need the ER2 resolving itself at least reaching its first profit target based on valid 60min TS3 sell, before any meaning ful rebound on big 3... ?
Good Trading to all.
TAS:) :)
.... yes - I believe its what we call the bigger picture with still some way to go I see - ty
Chris
Steve Griffiths
02-21-2008, 02:53 PM
Hey Steve - take a look at the chart and post I just put up :)
Yep. that is what I saw, a down day from larger degree (15min) resistance.........
Steve
d-day
02-21-2008, 02:59 PM
I'm short and selling some at market now - I see nothing to keep the ES from at least tagging 1345.25
;)
Amazing what the charts will tell you so long as you check your "beliefs" and "opinions" and how you "feel" at the door. I am flat at 1345.25 and likely done for the day as far as trading goes. But I have a couple of posts in me, so here's the first:
I like to take a look at marketwatch.com in the morning before the open. I read NONE of the stories. I just look at the headline. I like to see the sentiment in the headline facing the opposite of the direction I intend to play. As Steve pointed out, we were at stiff DP resistance this morning, and we were above the selling day objective of 1364.75, so I was looking for a short at/near the open. I was stopped out on my first short and then re-entered.
Here is marketwatch's screen shot from before the open - confirming (to my contrarian way of thinking) that the short side was the way to go.
I do not watch CNBC, I do not listen to Bloomberg, and I look at no websites during the day other than this here blog at MTPredictor. I do know what reports are coming out and when. I do not trade them, I just am aware of them.
d-day
02-21-2008, 03:10 PM
Just before I go I thought this was a good lesson for me
Had I understood David's TTT and known it was a Sell day, I would have stayed with my 5 min ES Short off the third bar of the day, ignored the Buy Sigs (my Trin was really never much better than Neutral) and hey ho I would still be running that initial position with over 4R in the bag so far .......... just something for me to sleep on I think :)
Enjoy
Chris
I would caution, Chris, that a "Sell Day" is not the same thing as a "Sell Short Day," so lower prices are not always to be expected on a "Sell Day." Per TTT, a "Sell Day" is the day when longs from yesterday's Buy Day liquidate those long positions, but it does not necessarily mean that you should automatically and mechanically initiate short positions. However, per TTT the objective is to be a seller on a penetration of the selling day objective, and Taylor instructs you to sell out quickly and at the market should price penetrate the selling day objective and immediately fail to hold its gain, which was the case today.
d-day
02-21-2008, 03:23 PM
I like to take a look at marketwatch.com in the morning before the open. I read NONE of the stories. I just look at the headline. I like to see the sentiment in the headline facing the opposite of the direction I intend to play.
I posted this other screenshot yesterday, but we have two days in a row where marketwatch.com's headline sentiment "picked" the market's true direction, and illustrate a very important point.
Yesterday was a Buy Day, and today was a Sell Day. The first pic is from yesterday, calling for lower prices, and the second is from today, looking for higher prices. As you all now know, the exact opposite occurred. Yesterday we saw a huge intraday rally, and today, thus far, whatever "fresh gains" were to be had spoiled very quickly.
Financial journalists are just that - journalists. They think that what they have to say actually matters - that traders actually make trading decisions based upon what the journalist have to say! Of course, the journalists and the media companies need both their readers and their customers to believe the same thing - otherwise, who would read the stuff, and if no one reads it, then who is going to buy advertising from the media company? But the are a lagging indicator. They report on what has occurred. They have no idea what is going to happen next. They have to wait for it to happen, and then after everyone already knows it, they will tell it to you anyway.
so dday, how does the TTT factor with your dday.efs? havnt seen you post that jewel in a while
d-day
02-21-2008, 03:48 PM
so dday, how does the TTT factor with your dday.efs? havnt seen you post that jewel in a while
Hi j,
I did post a few charts with it last week, but as it is not something available to anyone but me right now, I felt I should maybe not emphasize it too much. Actually, the Dday.efs is designed to track and confirm where we are in the TTT. Momentum precedes price, and I use the Dday to track momentum's cycle, and that helps to confirm the price cycle. I'll try to post some charts in the next few days that show what I Mean.
I gotta run right now, however, because the herd may be trying to use the 30 minute ES to tell me that I should be short the ES again.
d-day
Hi Steve,
I am using Beta 40 version on NINJA and question is about the signal print on the 3min sell on ER2 14:24 bar, the high of which didn't get exceeded on 14:36 bar, but we saw a failed sign of little black triangle...... I recall MTP is about to remove such in the upcoming release... ?
Thank you.
TAS:)
well, I coverd my TS3 short at 695.7 based on 60min target as I pointed out earlier, now DP is about to fire off, let's see how market react from here....
Cheers,
TAS
mitch
02-21-2008, 08:44 PM
Hi Mitch,
Taylor's Trading Technique is based upon what he identified as an inherent and enduring cyclical nature in trading markets. Foreign currencies markets, as markets, share in this nature, cycling between highs and lows, resistance and support, selling and buying. My experience with forex markets has been that trends tend to persist a few days longer than in other markets. This is probably due to the true 24 hour, international nature of currency trading. Yes, the SP's trade overnight in globex, but that is not the same as the foreign exchange market where the market is exposed to three large liquidity pools during a 24 hour cycle. So, I guess what I am saying is that caution is advised and study and observation required over a period of time prior to applying the TTT to forex daily charts.
I have often noticed that intraday trends in the currencies often change direction at certain, regular times of the day - the London open, the New York Open, the London close, the NY close, the Tokyo open. It does seem to me that the TTT cycle does play itself out not over 3-5 days as in the stock indices, but during the course of a 24-36 hour period.
I have not tried to trade forex based on applying TTT to this observation (and certainly more observation and study would be warranted prior to making a judgement as to its applicability). I do believe, that there is Buy, Sell, Short Sell cycle to forex; but I do not yet know, with any degree of certainty, the time period over which the cycle, on avergage, plays out.
Hi David
I too have observed that heightened activity tends to occur around the open & close of the major FX centres and this seems to be a logical point to conduct some observations and research/testing regarding TTT behaviours and cycles in the Forex world. Certainly worth looking into but will first try and get a much better understanding of Taylor's work and teachings.
Many thanks for your input.
Regards,
Mitch
I note the AB has just hit the 15 min DP - will that now become support for a bounce or is this one of David's Sell short days?
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 11:02 AM
I note the AB has just hit the 15 min DP - will that now become support for a bounce or is this one of David's Sell short days?
No STF divergence and 15,5 & 3 STFs all in Red.
Odds on for a Sell SHortDay I think:)
No STF divergence and 15,5 & 3 STFs all in Red.
Odds on for a Sell SHortDay I think:)
I think your going to be right - looks to be droping straight through the 15 min DP - did you catch the Short DP on the ES 3 min - I missed it but it looks perfect to me for those who were more awake than I :mad:
I think your going to be right - looks to be droping straight through the 15 min DP - did you catch the Short DP on the ES 3 min - I missed it but it looks perfect to me for those who were more awake than I :mad:
Just about textbook I would say - hope someone caught this :)
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 11:22 AM
I think your going to be right - looks to be droping straight through the 15 min DP - did you catch the Short DP on the ES 3 min - I missed it but it looks perfect to me for those who were more awake than I :mad:
Do you mean the Manual DP off the 20:30 bar from yesterday?
I missed that one, but I had a speadbet order in to Short the ES at 1350, which filled by 0.5 point, so I'm sitting here rather smug. This was from another strategy not-MTP, but you pointing the DP out at the open and with D-Days sell Short day due, it gives me a much warmer feeling inside staying on the short side.:D
Do you mean the Manual DP off the 20:30 bar from yesterday?
I missed that one, but I had a speadbet order in to Short the ES at 1350, which filled by 0.5 point, so I'm sitting here rather smug. This was from another strategy not-MTP, but you pointing the DP out at the open and with D-Days sell Short day due, it gives me a much warmer feeling inside staying on the short side.:D
No - its was the 3rd 3 min bar today bouncing straight off the 3 min DP - see chart above
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 11:27 AM
No - its was the 3rd 3 min bar today bouncing straight off the 3 min DP - see chart above
We're talking about the same one.
The entry is the 3rd 3 min bar today
The previous peak was 20:30 (UK time) yesterday.
Nice one, but I missed it as well.
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 11:34 AM
I think your going to be right - looks to be droping straight through the 15 min DP - did you catch the Short DP on the ES 3 min - I missed it but it looks perfect to me for those who were more awake than I :mad:
Well the market seems to have paused here anyway.
Could be prudent to lock in some of the short gains so far as with no news today, it could be a sideways...
scratch that comment above...
seems to be hitting new lows again:)
Well the market seems to have paused here anyway.
Could be prudent to lock in some of the short gains so far as with no news today, it could be a sideways...
scratch that comment above...
seems to be hitting new lows again:)
The ES is just about to hit its 15 min DP and I went short the AB about 10 mins ago when it failed to hold its 15 min DP (I'am calling this one a 'continuation' trade).
What is really scary is that I can't find any support DP below me on the AB for absolutely miles - so I either lose this one or we get a monster R winner I'am thinking :)
d-day
02-22-2008, 11:43 AM
I note the AB has just hit the 15 min DP - will that now become support for a bounce or is this one of David's Sell short days?
Hi Chris,
Today is Short Sale Day; however, it is far from perfect, as the short sale objective (the price at, above or slightly below which we wanted to go short) was 1369.25, well above any of today's price action. I got short at 1343.50 (rather than at the 3 minute opening DP). I waited because in my opinion, price was in "no man's land" and I wanted the sellers to prove themselves before I jumped on board.
Also, we are now at a 30 minute DP support on the ES and we have now fulfilled the market's obligation to test that 1332.75 globex low that was touched twice in globex during the last week and a half and not once during the regular session. So all I'm saying is that if you are short, protect your profits. Just because it is a Short Sale Day does not mean we necessarily trend lower to the close (though it may). Also, we have had a Buying Day Low Violation (common in downtrending areas according to Taylor), and as such, per TTT, the possibility of a rally and the taking of long positions on a short sale day is not ruled out. However, as for myself, I remain short bias until real buyers show up to prove me wrong.
Good luck today,
d-day
Hi Chris,
Today is Short Sale Day; however, it is far from perfect, as the short sale objective (the price at, above or slightly below which we wanted to go short) was 1369.25, well above any of today's price action. I got short at 1343.50 (rather than at the 3 minute opening DP). I waited because in my opinion, price was in "no man's land" and I wanted the sellers to prove themselves before I jumped on board.
Also, we are now at a 30 minute DP support on the ES and we have now fulfilled the market's obligation to test that 1332.75 globex low that was touched twice in globex during the last week and a half and not once during the regular session. So all I'm saying is that if you are short, protect your profits. Just because it is a Short Sale Day does not mean we necessarily trend lower to the close (though it may). Also, we have had a Buying Day Low Violation (common in downtrending areas according to Taylor), and as such, per TTT, the possibility of a rally and the taking of long positions on a short sale day is not ruled out. However, as for myself, I remain short bias until real buyers show up to prove me wrong.
Good luck today,
d-day
... well it starting to look as if we might be getting some support coming in of my 15 and your 30 min DP's - my AB short has its stop in at 1R so I shall wait and let the mkt decided for me - I'am not closing this one (like I did yesterday) with my Trin sitting at 1.41 !
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 11:53 AM
Well it looks like the 15 min ES DP provided a bounce (for the moment anyway).
... well it starting to look as if we might be getting some support coming in of my 15 and your 30 min DP's - my AB short has its stop in at 1R so I shall wait and let the mkt decided for me - I'am not closing this one (like I did yesterday) with my Trin sitting at 1.41 !
... I'am hoping that this is one of your little Bear Flags with decreasing Volume ! ........ please :(
Hi Chris,
Today is Short Sale Day; however, it is far from perfect, as the short sale objective (the price at, above or slightly below which we wanted to go short) was 1369.25, well above any of today's price action. I got short at 1343.50 (rather than at the 3 minute opening DP). I waited because in my opinion, price was in "no man's land" and I wanted the sellers to prove themselves before I jumped on board.
Also, we are now at a 30 minute DP support on the ES and we have now fulfilled the market's obligation to test that 1332.75 globex low that was touched twice in globex during the last week and a half and not once during the regular session. So all I'm saying is that if you are short, protect your profits. Just because it is a Short Sale Day does not mean we necessarily trend lower to the close (though it may). Also, we have had a Buying Day Low Violation (common in downtrending areas according to Taylor), and as such, per TTT, the possibility of a rally and the taking of long positions on a short sale day is not ruled out. However, as for myself, I remain short bias until real buyers show up to prove me wrong.
Good luck today,
d-day
Hi David,
Today's 5 min Opening Range of ER2 (emini Russell 2000) appears to back your analysis.
Rama.
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 12:03 PM
... I'am hoping that this is one of your little Bear Flags with decreasing Volume ! ........ please :(
Hope you're right.
I pocketed my ES short for 3R and am still short the ER2. The StopLoss is at the 3 min ATR 689.10 and just held by 4 ticks. Stochs just turning downward again.
I'm off for a coffee and see what happens when I get back.
Hope you're right.
I pocketed my ES short for 3R and am still short the ER2. The StopLoss is at the 3 min ATR 689.10 and just held by 4 ticks. Stochs just turning downward again.
I'm off for a coffee and see what happens when I get back.
........ good job on the 3R in the bank - lets see what the mkt does with us on the Russell - like I said if it doesn't hold or reverse around here it looks like it could be a monster with absolutely nothing below us to stop the fall
........ good job on the 3R in the bank - lets see what the mkt does with us on the Russell - like I said if it doesn't hold or reverse around here it looks like it could be a monster with absolutely nothing below us to stop the fall
. hmmmmmmm i've been taken out for -1R in what looks to me like quite a nice looking potenital ABC - my rule is to NEVER move my stop (so I didn't) but if this thing puts in a TS now I will be less than impressed!!
. hmmmmmmm i've been taken out for -1R in what looks to me like quite a nice looking potenital ABC - my rule is to NEVER move my stop (so I didn't) but if this thing puts in a TS now I will be less than impressed!!
... darn it - would u look at that - it read my mind :mad:
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 12:27 PM
... darn it - would u look at that - it read my mind :mad:
Back from coffee and Stop taken out, but luckily back to late to see the TS3 fire and saving myself -1R on the failure.
2nd TS3 forming on ER2 again.
16:39 - Update
Another TS3 just fired on the ER2. I'll give it one last go and call it a day while I'm up.
d-day
02-22-2008, 12:46 PM
Im taking the TS3 sell on the ES and I'll sell a few more with a 1334 sell stop
Im taking the TS3 sell on the ES and I'll sell a few more with a 1334 sell stop
.... good luck - I went for the AB (for the second time) :)
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 12:51 PM
.... good luck - I went for the AB (for the second time) :)
ER2/AB TS3 short working out nicely!:)
TS3 short also fired on YM but better RR at 5.6 on the ER2.
d-day
02-22-2008, 01:03 PM
.... good luck - I went for the AB (for the second time) :)
Thanks Chris ... snowing here and the kids are off from school, so I'm a little slow on the MTPblog uptake today. I will feel much better about this short if it would hurry up and get back under 1334.25 and stay there. Methinks that if we get a 3 minute bar close under that 1334.25 (a 15 minute bar close would be even better) then WPT will be as good as achieved. Under 1333 would also help out cause as it would keep the 30 minute trend pointing down.
Thanks Chris ... snowing here and the kids are off from school, so I'm a little slow on the MTPblog uptake today. I will feel much better about this short if it would hurry up and get back under 1334.25 and stay there. Methinks that if we get a 3 minute bar close under that 1334.25 (a 15 minute bar close would be even better) then WPT will be as good as achieved. Under 1333 would also help out cause as it would keep the 30 minute trend pointing down.
.. snowing in New York I see from the news today as well
I think we might be close to our outcome on this ......... looking much better now
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 01:10 PM
ER2 now at b/even. Just need that little push down to at least the 3 min DP in the 682.5 area.
Steve Griffiths
02-22-2008, 01:15 PM
YM just got to first target
Steve
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 01:37 PM
ER2 missed Min Wave C target by 1 Tick.
I know Matt B says let the ATR do the work, but I can't stand by and let a 5R turn into a 2.5R win on a Friday, so I cashed in 50% at 683.3 for 5R.
remaining 50% of stake at +3R locked in. Will let this part ride until it gets Stopped out.
Steve Griffiths
02-22-2008, 01:44 PM
I agree, especially as the STF has not hit the Strength Band.
+5R is +5R, especalilly with a waek STF
Steve
Steve Griffiths
02-22-2008, 01:47 PM
Well done CT, banking that +5R at the Profit target was the correct decision.........
That is why I programmed the STF strength band, as I know that a market will only make a strong move about 30% of the time, and that is usually in a Wave 3 type swing, and that is the time to use the ATRStop, not when we have a weak STF swing a lot later in the move.....
Steve
ClaphamTrader
02-22-2008, 01:54 PM
I agree, especially as the STF has not hit the Strength Band.
+5R is +5R, especalilly with a waek STF
Steve
Too right.
Last 50% of stake just got stopped out for +3R
Makes 50% x 5R + 50% x 3R = 4R to MTP
Admittedly, did save myslef -1R loss by being lucky enough to be away for a coffee at the right time.
Thanks for the s/w Steve!
I do wish you'd be good enough and provide the ability for automated backtesting in the next release though;)
Larry22
02-22-2008, 03:57 PM
For those of you who are following the ER2 or AB.
If you want to know why the decline stopped, we have probably ended the 3rd wave down of a C wave.
See my wave count of the wave 3.
Of course the count can extend if we make new lows.
I will post a pic later of my daily count.
Larry22
02-22-2008, 04:07 PM
Possible daily wave count of the ER2.
I have forgot to put a small wave 1a on the first leg up after the (3C) leg down sorry about that.
As usual this is my point of view as other counts could prevail. ;)
Larry22
02-22-2008, 04:15 PM
For those of you who are following the ER2 or AB.
If you want to know why the decline stopped, we have probably ended the 3rd wave down of a C wave.
See my wave count of the wave 3.
Of course the count can extend if we make new lows.
I will post a pic later of my daily count.
Update
The ER2 looks very weak we could be heading for more downward extensions in wave 3.
Time will tell
Laurent
Larry22
02-22-2008, 04:31 PM
Update
The ER2 looks very weak we could be heading for more downward extensions in wave 3.
Time will tell
Laurent
Finally the possible first leg of the C wave for the 4th wave, it was about time. :D
TreeShaker
02-22-2008, 05:17 PM
Did anyone get into that last run up in the NQ? Probably in the others also. I saw it a little late and by the time I looked it over to decide if it was just another money grabber or the real deal, it took off. :mad: I had brain fog all day. Should have gone to bed earlier. :rolleyes: When it hit 5R I shut down in disgust. Hope somebody got on it.
d-day
02-23-2008, 09:04 PM
Finally the possible first leg of the C wave for the 4th wave, it was about time. :D
Hi Laurent, I've been wondering what happened to you! We've been missing Edfash, also. Where are you Edfash? And how about Taroo1? Come out, come out, wherever you are!
Larry22
02-24-2008, 12:58 AM
Hi Laurent, I've been wondering what happened to you! We've been missing Edfash, also. Where are you Edfash? And how about Taroo1? Come out, come out, wherever you are!
Hi David, I don't post as much as nobody beside you seems interested about my wave analysis.
I don't mind sending them to you but I know you are now trading the ES. I will try to look at possible wave count on the ES for you.
btw I bought the low of the 5th wave on the ER2 (we had a DP, big divergence on the stochastic and the MACDBB), I took some profits on the first A wave up and tought I would be stopped on the other half but the waiting finally paid off. :D
I don't know about Edfash, but I do know that tar001 was working on sharpening his trading skills by using fib retracement and projections with DP, he was also looking for someone to chat with during trading hours.
Laurent
Hi David, I don't post as much as nobody beside you seems interested about my wave analysis.
I don't mind sending them to you but I know you are now trading the ES. I will try to look at possible wave count on the ES for you.
btw I bought the low of the 5th wave on the ER2 (we had a DP, big divergence on the stochastic and the MACDBB), I took some profits on the first A wave up and tought I would be stopped on the other half but the waiting finally paid off. :D
I don't know about Edfash, but I do know that tar001 was working on sharpening his trading skills by using fib retracement and projections with DP, he was also looking for someone to chat with during trading hours.
Laurent
Laurent.
Please excuse my ignorance, but MACDBB ? I know and use MACD but whats the BB bit?
Thanks - Chris
PS - for David D if you read this my copy of TTT arrived on Friday - your right its murder trying to read! ....... but I will battle on with it !
Steve Griffiths
02-24-2008, 08:25 AM
Did anyone get into that last run up in the NQ? Probably in the others also. I saw it a little late and by the time I looked it over to decide if it was just another money grabber or the real deal, it took off. :mad: I had brain fog all day. Should have gone to bed earlier. :rolleyes: When it hit 5R I shut down in disgust. Hope somebody got on it.
Hi Guys,
I hate to say it, but just look at where the rally on the ES started from - the 15min DP....
Then look where the very low of the day unfolded on the 3min ES, again right at DP support.
Remember, the DP is the "area where a market is likely to reverse as a market "fails" to move to new highs or low". And that is exactly what happened on Friday on the 3min ES, it tried to push lower, but reversed right at the DP with a blue buy bar. Also noticing that this was also at "large degree" 15MIn DP support added weight to the long trade.
As you can see, the result, a massive +7% Profit as the ES rallied strongly into the close.
All the Tools to catch trades like this are in MTP, and all the education as well. the rest (as they say) is up to you all to make the most of good set-ups such as these.... :)
Steve
Larry22
02-24-2008, 10:37 AM
Laurent.
Please excuse my ignorance, but MACDBB ? I know and use MACD but whats the BB bit?
Thanks - Chris
BB stands for Bollinger Band, it is an indicator that you can find with NinjaTrader. Very useful to help me confirm a trend.
Larry22
02-24-2008, 10:50 AM
Hi Guys,
I hate to say it, but just look at where the rally on the ES started from - the 15min DP....
Then look where the very low of the day unfolded on the 3min ES, again right at DP support.
Remember, the DP is the "area where a market is likely to reverse as a market "fails" to move to new highs or low". And that is exactly what happened on Friday on the 3min ES, it tried to push lower, but reversed right at the DP with a blue buy bar. Also noticing that this was also at "large degree" 15MIn DP support added weight to the long trade.
As you can see, the result, a massive +7% Profit as the ES rallied strongly into the close.
All the Tools to catch trades like this are in MTP, and all the education as well. the rest (as they say) is up to you all to make the most of good set-ups such as these.... :)
Steve
I agree with you Steve, too many people seems to only concentrate only on the 3 min time frame.
I have said it before, you should allways have beside your 3 min a 15 and 60 min charts with possible DP, fib retracement and projections, because these are the ones who will give you bigger moves for your bucks.
When I posted my wave count analysis I could have added a 60 min charts showing a big DP, but I tought that most people had seen that. There is no magic about that, all you have to do is have your charts ready and labelled. (see 60 min charts attached)
Personnaly for me, when I have a possible wave count with a target reached (DP or fib) then chances are stronger for the move to happen.
Laurent
d-day
02-24-2008, 02:31 PM
Hi David, I don't post as much as nobody beside you seems interested about my wave analysis.
More folks than you are aware of are interested in your insightful wave analysis. But even if they weren't, aren't I enough lol
I don't mind sending them to you but I know you are now trading the ES. I will try to look at possible wave count on the ES for you.
I find that the ER2 and ES are often in synch, and when not, the ER2 often leads the ES. Your ER2 analysis is useful to anyone trading one of the four majors.
btw I bought the low of the 5th wave on the ER2 (we had a DP, big divergence on the stochastic and the MACDBB), I took some profits on the first A wave up and thought I would be stopped on the other half but the waiting finally paid off. :D
That was a nice trade. I had a buy signal at 3:15 EST on the 15 minute ES, and the 30 minute ES had just gone bullish giving me permission for the long trade, but I did not take the trade. What can I say? Given my work with the TTT, I had (and have) Monday as a Buy Day, and while the rally was expected, I did not expect its timing nor its extent for Friday.
I don't know about Edfash, but I do know that tar001 was working on sharpening his trading skills by using fib retracement and projections with DP, he was also looking for someone to chat with during trading hours.Laurent
I do hope Edfash and Tar001 will continue to contribute to our discussions.
d-day
02-24-2008, 02:38 PM
PS - for David D if you read this my copy of TTT arrived on Friday - you're right its murder trying to read! ....... but I will battle on with it !
Start on page 7 (the first page of Taylor's text) and go straight through. Skip the Raschke essay for now, and you'd be better off tearing the Angell essay out of the book entirely and burning it.
Don't worry about understanding to much the first time through - as you know by now, its almost like learning a foreign language! Reading it straight through one time without stopping to think too much will get you used to his writing (I know, a scary thought) and it will thus help you on subsequent readings. I try to read a little every day (and I've been working on it for over a year now). Each time I read it my understanding grows.
As you know, I am a big believer in fading the crowd and going contrary to mass sentiment. Most folks I have heard from, either friends and aquaintances or anonymous reviewers who have read Taylor's book have nearly universally panned his method. It is thus no wonder that his method has yielded such stunningly accurate results for me as I have gained a modicum of proficiency in applying it to my market analysis.
Good luck and enjoy,
d-day
d-day
02-24-2008, 02:41 PM
too many people seems to only concentrate only on the 3 min time frame ... you should always have beside your 3 min a 15 and 60 min charts with possible DP, fib retracement and projections, because these are the ones who will give you bigger moves for your bucks.Laurent
I agree Laurent. As you know, I trade predominantly off 3 minute charts; however, I do keep the 15 minute and 30 minute open beside the 3 minute. I also track the trading cycle on a 24 hour 60 minute chart.
Larry22
02-24-2008, 02:52 PM
I agree Laurent. As you know, I trade predominantly off 3 minute charts; however, I do keep the 15 minute and 30 minute open beside the 3 minute. I also track the trading cycle on a 24 hour 60 minute chart.
Hi David, I also keep a 24 hour charts but sometimes they are difficult to read (analyse), that is why I keep higher time frame tick charts as it is easier for me to see the waves as there is no time involved.
Laurent
Larry22
02-24-2008, 03:00 PM
I forgot to mention david that I allways keep an eye on the TTT forecast method in relation with my wave analysis and I have been amazed on how they've been working together recently.
So I don't have to tell you that it's one more tool to help me confirm the possible direction that the market will take.
Thanks for the time and efforts you are taking for this analysis.
Laurent
edfash
02-24-2008, 05:24 PM
David, i appreciate your kind words and will certainly continue to post to the forum. I find the forum helps keep me grounded and maintaining some contact in what would otherwise be a very lonely day. I enjoy reading all the posts of those who contribute and certainly look for to the wave analysis of Laurent.
My wife dragged me away for a brief vacation, and i gues the tropical sun beats the snow and cold in ny. Be back by midweek.
Great trading to all in our little community.
richbois
02-25-2008, 01:33 AM
D-Day
i just started to read TTT and created my own book on excel however since I didnt have time to read the whole book could you post you opinion of what will happen today based on the last hour actions of friday
I know I didnt post much yet but I love your ideas and value them
hopefully i will be able to have a little bird of my own soon that will also help me and my trades
Thanks
PS when i finish my book on ES I would love for you to look at it and get your input
D-Day
i just started to read TTT and created my own book on excel however since I didnt have time to read the whole book could you post you opinion of what will happen today based on the last hour actions of friday
I know I didnt post much yet but I love your ideas and value them
hopefully i will be able to have a little bird of my own soon that will also help me and my trades
Thanks
PS when i finish my book on ES I would love for you to look at it and get your input
Its a fun read isnt it Rich!! I'm doing as instructed by David D and ploughing my way through from start to finish and have worked out (this is the easy bit I think) that today (Monday 25th Feb) is a Buying Day. The only problem I have at the moment is trying to fully understand how to plan the day based on the action on Friday, which I reckon was a Short Sell Day
It seems to me that my bias for today is to look for Long MTP setups. I am expecting a higher open today and hope for a decline from that initial high - at that point I am expecting MTP to ping away with some lovely buy signals which I will jump all over :) .
Unless the price declines below the low of Friday (v unlikely in my view) today's 'buying point' is, I believe, what Taylor would call 'Buying a higher Buying Day bottom' - which he also says is 'generally ' profitable.
So my plan today is to have a Long bias, I expect the market to open higher, I will 'keep my powder dry' waiting for a decline from the opening high and keep my eyes open for any MTP buysetups on a decline from the opening high ......... and then I will pounce
Now that all sounds nice and simple and its going to be very profitable :)
........... but for now its back to the book for me :eek:
I agree Laurent. As you know, I trade predominantly off 3 minute charts; however, I do keep the 15 minute and 30 minute open beside the 3 minute. I also track the trading cycle on a 24 hour 60 minute chart.
I'am sure all other eSignal people probably do this but for those who don't this little idea might be helpful.
I run charts on the YM. ES, AB and NQ and before the start of each day I open each one on its daily timeframe and draw in (in Red) the Day DP's. I then drop the chart down to 15 min and draw in (in Blue) the 15 min DP's and finally I drop down to 3 or 5 min (which are the timeframes I have displayed during mkt hours) and put those DP's on. Thus even though I am watching a 3 or 5 min chart, my 15 min and Daily DP's are still displayed.
The only problem is that I can't find a way in eSignal to draw a rectangle other than by 'constructing it' manually using the Segment tool - that works fine by its a real pain the next day when you want to move the box because you have to move four lines for each box (nothings perfect is it).
Anyway attached I am showing what it looks like starting with the Daily, then the 15 then the 5 - all very basic I know but believe it or not I only started doing this recently - prior to that I would be dancing around opening up seperate charts in each timeframe which was far from ideal.
Chris
martinrcox
02-25-2008, 05:37 AM
Just before I go I thought this was a good lesson for me
Had I understood David's TTT and known it was a Sell day, I would have stayed with my 5 min ES Short off the third bar of the day, ignored the Buy Sigs (my Trin was really never much better than Neutral) and hey ho I would still be running that initial position with over 4R in the bag so far .......... just something for me to sleep on I think :)
Enjoy
Chris
Dear Chris,
Here is a tip that I find quite useful and might be worth using in conjunction with TTT. If you put a 60 period exponential MA on the 5 min chart and a 100 period exponential MA on the 3 min chart. You will be surprised how often the price action moves up to meet the MA (or goes slightly above it) before continuing in the direction indicated by the MA. You will also notice the number of MTP signals that appear at that point. It does not work so well when the markets are going sideways
This might be another useful trend indicator to add to the Trim etc
Martin
Dear Chris,
Here is a tip that I find quite useful and might be worth using in conjunction with TTT. If you put a 60 period exponential MA on the 5 min chart and a 100 period exponential MA on the 3 min chart. You will be surprised how often the price action moves up to meet the MA (or goes slightly above it) before continuing in the direction indicated by the MA. You will also notice the number of MTP signals that appear at that point. It does not work so well when the markets are going sideways
This might be another useful trend indicator to add to the Trim etc
Martin
Hi Martin
Nice to hear from you - thanks for that I will give that a go.
Chris
Its a fun read isnt it Rich!! I'm doing as instructed by David D and ploughing my way through from start to finish and have worked out (this is the easy bit I think) that today (Monday 25th Feb) is a Buying Day. The only problem I have at the moment is trying to fully understand how to plan the day based on the action on Friday, which I reckon was a Short Sell Day
It seems to me that my bias for today is to look for Long MTP setups. I am expecting a higher open today and hope for a decline from that initial high - at that point I am expecting MTP to ping away with some lovely buy signals which I will jump all over :) .
Unless the price declines below the low of Friday (v unlikely in my view) today's 'buying point' is, I believe, what Taylor would call 'Buying a higher Buying Day bottom' - which he also says is 'generally ' profitable.
So my plan today is to have a Long bias, I expect the market to open higher, I will 'keep my powder dry' waiting for a decline from the opening high and keep my eyes open for any MTP buysetups on a decline from the opening high ......... and then I will pounce
Now that all sounds nice and simple and its going to be very profitable :)
........... but for now its back to the book for me :eek:
Well ........... I do know that 'one swallow doesn't make a summer' but what a start to the plan for the day as per my previous post!
The Dax opened higher (as per the plan), it then declined (as per the plan), MTP then put in a lovely TS3 buy (as requested) and boom ............. a 3.8R profit (after costs). What a lovely way to start the week - hopefully the same thing will happen this afternoon when the US emerges from its slumber.
d-day
02-25-2008, 10:22 AM
i just started to read TTT and created my own book on excel however since I didnt have time to read the whole book could you post you opinion of what will happen today based on the last hour actions of friday
I never know what will happen on any particular day. The TTT only lets us anticipate what is most likely to occur. Today is a Buying Day, and the Buying Day Objective 1327 on the ES. I want to buy the ES at, slightly above, or below that price. There are two key points in Taylor to keep in mind today:
1) "In the case of a Higher Buying Day Low, the stock or future shows support causing a rallly and a strong close on the Short Sale Day - the decline from this rally, next day, on the Buying Day, fails to sell down to the previous low - the Short Sale Day Low - this rally on the Short Sale day is an indication of a Higher Buy Day Bottom"
and
2) "A Short Sale put out at the high of a Buying Day made FIRSTon the penetration of the Short Sale Day High, should be covered on the reaction ... for short selling on the Buying Day High made FIRST is generally a weak short sale."
There is more, of course, but I cannot re-type out half the book. What is going to happen today? I don't know. I will be watching for where price opens relative to Friaday's close, and how price acts relative to Friday's rally high and the Buying Day Objective point. My Bias is long, but should the 15 and 30 minute timeframes give me permission to take shorts, I will do so. Obviously the ES is bullish on both the 15 minute (as of close of 15:15 EST bar Friday) and 30 minute (as of close of 15:00 EST bar Friday).
Existing Home Sales data will be released 30 minutes after the NY Open. I will not be watching CNBC or any other news outlet to hear the number. I wouldn't know what to make of the number if I were. But I know it is coming and it may be the catalyst for a market move.
Good luck to all today,
d-day
d-day
02-25-2008, 10:35 AM
Well ........... I do know that 'one swallow doesn't make a summer' but what a start to the plan for the day as per my previous post!
The Dax opened higher (as per the plan), it then declined (as per the plan), MTP then put in a lovely TS3 buy (as requested) and boom ............. a 3.8R profit (after costs). What a lovely way to start the week - hopefully the same thing will happen this afternoon when the US emerges from its slumber.
Great Chris! Congratulations! Even though I insist that the TTT is stunningly accurate when applied correctly and in a disciplined manner, not everyday will unfold according to plan. However, simply having a plan, and having a tool like MTP to help you implement the plan, is a powerful powerful edge.
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 11:32 AM
Hi,
Taylor preaches/forces one to have a bias on the day and be flexible to adapt to the market conditions. Once one has a bias at the beginning of the day, and the market initially moves in the anticipated direction, one can use the Lower Timeframes and/or choice setups from MTP to trade.
What is to say that Friday is not a Buy Day and today is a Sell Day? Again, always have to put things in context and change the game plan as the Day progresses. I am leaning towards a Sell Day today as market may need time to digest the 30 point gain from Fridays Lows. We are close to some Manual DP Resistance here on indexes from 2/21/08 10:50 CST Pivots.
BTW....A long time successful user of MTP and 1st time poster...
Good luck every one...
--Raj
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 11:35 AM
NQ 3 min DP; Risk:Reward: 11.7
richbois
02-25-2008, 11:49 AM
Hi,
Taylor preaches/forces one to have a bias on the day and be flexible to adapt to the market conditions. Once one has a bias at the beginning of the day, and the market initially moves in the anticipated direction, one can use the Lower Timeframes and/or choice setups from MTP to trade.
What is to say that Friday is not a Buy Day and today is a Sell Day? Again, always have to put things in context and change the game plan as the Day progresses. I am leaning towards a Sell Day today as market may need time to digest the 30 point gain from Fridays Lows. We are close to some Manual DP Resistance here on indexes from 2/21/08 10:50 CST Pivots.
BTW....A long time successful user of MTP and 1st time poster...
Good luck every one...
--Raj
well having a BIAS saved a 1R loss on ES I can live with that
d-day
02-25-2008, 12:17 PM
Hi,
Taylor preaches/forces one to have a bias on the day and be flexible to adapt to the market conditions. Once one has a bias at the beginning of the day, and the market initially moves in the anticipated direction, one can use the Lower Timeframes and/or choice setups from MTP to trade.
What is to say that Friday is not a Buy Day and today is a Sell Day? Again, always have to put things in context and change the game plan as the Day progresses. I am leaning towards a Sell Day today as market may need time to digest the 30 point gain from Fridays Lows. We are close to some Manual DP Resistance here on indexes from 2/21/08 10:50 CST Pivots.
BTW....A long time successful user of MTP and 1st time poster...
Good luck every one...
--Raj
Hi Raj,
1) I am long per my Buy Day Bias and a three minute ES buy signal (non-MTP), and have been since 1354 (current ES 1362.75) I also bought more at 1359 per a mini bull flag (10:42 EST) on the ES as price gently declined from the auto DP without much volume.
2) Today is a BUY DAY no matter where we close. If we close lower than today's 1346.25 low then we will have a Buying Day with High made FIRST.
3) Friday was a Short Sale Day, regardless of the close.
4) As I read Taylor, the cycle does not "shift," "change", or exhibit "flexibility." The cycle can only extend in those cases of consecutive higher highs/lower lows.
5) George Angell is the one who suggests this constant "shift the cycle" approach, not Taylor. Angell either didn't try hard enough to understand Taylor's method, or Angell needed a "neater" cycle theory in order to sell his LSS Software. I, on the other hand, have nothing to sell and no ulterior motive other than to share with you all what is working for me.
Don't take my reply the wrong way. I appreciate your opinion, and I do hope you join us and continue to post. But I disagree with everything you said in your post regarding TTT. In fact, it is interpretations such as the one you suggest that may pose an even bigger obstacle to understanding Taylor's method than his writing style lol.
You are leaning toward a sell day, Raj, because you have a market opinion, i.e. you believe the market needs to "digests" its gain from friday. Why? Why would it need to do so at all? Afterall, all the market did on friday was rally from within the lower boundary of its recent trading range, and we have yet to rally to the top of it. It is not as though we broke out of this range and extended thirty points above it.
My opinion is that today is a Buy Day because the current TTT cycle, as I see it, has identified it as such. The market could experience a sell off at any time that sees a close below the January lows, and this would still be a Buy Day. It would, in that case, be a Buy Day High made FIRST. When one studies Tayor, one will find that according to his experience, most market tops actually occur on Buy Days with High made FIRST.
Best of luck to you, and please continue to share your views with us. I hope you agree that we may all respectfully disagree with one another at times (even though in this case I am right lol ;) )
d-day
02-25-2008, 12:26 PM
NQ 3 min DP; Risk:Reward: 11.7
Good luck!
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 12:32 PM
d-day, It is nice to have differing opinion....I started the day with a Buy Day bias and took that 5 min pullback to 20 EMA area around 47 area and flipped out @57.5 prior days High. What made me switch my bias was the manual DPs projected from 2/21 10:55 CST; All indexes finding resistance here. Why did i choose that pivot? Simple that was the 1st lower low on 5 minutes that led to the decline on Thursday and Friday.
Now, if price took out that DP zone without hanging and monkeying around, i would have been an ardent Bull....But notice price found Resistance and now starting to decline....So, MTP put me in an alert zone and gave me a trade and is up to me to manage it to the best of my abilities....
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 12:40 PM
Banked 3.5 R on NQ Partials Here as DP Support Zone from 3 min could trigger a Long
TreeShaker
02-25-2008, 01:13 PM
I'am sure all other eSignal people probably do this but for those who don't this little idea might be helpful.
I run charts on the YM. ES, AB and NQ and before the start of each day I open each one on its daily timeframe and draw in (in Red) the Day DP's. I then drop the chart down to 15 min and draw in (in Blue) the 15 min DP's and finally I drop down to 3 or 5 min (which are the timeframes I have displayed during mkt hours) and put those DP's on. Thus even though I am watching a 3 or 5 min chart, my 15 min and Daily DP's are still displayed.
The only problem is that I can't find a way in eSignal to draw a rectangle other than by 'constructing it' manually using the Segment tool - that works fine by its a real pain the next day when you want to move the box because you have to move four lines for each box (nothings perfect is it).
Anyway attached I am showing what it looks like starting with the Daily, then the 15 then the 5 - all very basic I know but believe it or not I only started doing this recently - prior to that I would be dancing around opening up seperate charts in each timeframe which was far from ideal.
Chris
I tried your idea Chris, and had one problem. On the the 60 min, I can't get 1 day, I made my rectangles for the dps, did the same for 15 min, and went to the 3 min to see how they looked. The rectangles for the 60 min were so wide that they don't seem to be of much use. How do you deal with that?
Banked 3.5 R on NQ Partials Here as DP Support Zone from 3 min could trigger a Long
Hi Raj,
I am with you on this NQ 3min DP sell as well, since STF already exceeding the strength band, I am going to run it as least to the DP target at 1761.50 partially, right now with ATR, 1R plus locked in...
Good luck to ALL trading today.
TAS
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 01:16 PM
Nice TAS,
Notice the DP FAilure Trade Added @79; Lets Go
I tried your idea Chris, and had one problem. On the the 60 min, I can't get 1 day, I made my rectangles for the dps, did the same for 15 min, and went to the 3 min to see how they looked. The rectangles for the 60 min were so wide that they don't seem to be of much use. How do you deal with that?
Hi there
Yes the 15 & 60 & 1day DP's will be very wide when looking a them on a 3 or 5 min chart but thats OK because they are the DP zones for those time periods and I like seeing them there because they keep you focused on where you are in the bigger picture -
The 3 & 5 min charts might look as if there moving a lot but if all of that movement is still inside or at the larger degree DP you should (in my view) have that thought right to the front of your mind. Having those larger time zone DP's displayed when viewing a lower timezone does that
Hope that helps - those daily, 60 and 15 min DP areas are real don't dismiss them -
Chris
Well, ATR stops me out with 2.5 R on 3min NQ short trade...
TAS
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 02:01 PM
Still in using 0 Ratchet and Atrbase = Close. wonder for how long tho....
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 02:14 PM
Stopped out rest for 3.7 R
d-day
02-25-2008, 02:21 PM
Stopped out rest for 3.7 R
Nice trade, Raj. Congratulations!
went short TS1 on 5min ER2, let's see how it pans out...
TAS
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 02:34 PM
Wouldve Couldve Shouldve...5 min ATRStop would have kept me in that NQ trade. 3 min DP; Looking for DP Failure Trade now NQ; Short @69.25
went short TS1 on 5min ER2, let's see how it pans out...
TAS
Quick profit of 2.6 R on this one...
TAS
d-day
02-25-2008, 02:40 PM
At the close of of the 13:30 30 minute bar, my trend went from bullsih to bearish, so I am now neutral and will trade from either side (30 minute bear trend on a TTT Buy Day = Neutral Bias for me). But that's me. Also, I will enter long trades on pullbacks, and not as per MTP guidelines. Again, that is just me. Once the 30 minute trend changes, I need price to prove to me it is going to be strong enough to swim against the current.
Stopped out rest for 3.7 R
Well, Raj,
We seem to have been in the same 3min DP NQ short trade, my entry is 1786.75, which is one tick below 10:30 EST bar. where is your entry by the way since you got a much bigger R than me in this case..
Again, SHOULD HOLD this NQ short to the opposing DP as I mentioned earlier, I recall STEVE reminds us to use ATR only price reaches first profit target while STF exceeding strength band...
Good trading anyway
TAS
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 02:58 PM
I entered @87.75 .....I just checked with TS and the low of the bar was 87.75 as opposed to 88 from eSignal....Whats a tick between friends right? Good Trade TAS on ER...
richbois
02-25-2008, 03:21 PM
good trade on NQ Raj
I took the long on ER DP signal however made the rooky mistake of not letting the profit run but atleast got 2R out of it
now the 4R goal just it
thanks for your input Chris and Dave this morning
Unless the price declines below the low of Friday (v unlikely in my view) today's 'buying point' is, I believe, what Taylor would call 'Buying a higher Buying Day bottom' - which he also says is 'generally ' profitable.
So my plan today is to have a Long bias, I expect the market to open higher, I will 'keep my powder dry' waiting for a decline from the opening high and keep my eyes open for any MTP buysetups on a decline from the opening high ......... and then I will pounce
Well I kept my powder dry, I got my MTP Buysetup ......... and I pounced - what a fabby day - hope everyone else had a good one " :)
3rd short trade today, TS3 on 3min YM... coincide with divergence into Dp....
Anyone on board as well ?
TAS
3rd short trade today, TS3 on 3min YM... coincide with divergence into Dp....
Anyone on board as well ?
TAS
Sorry TAS - I can't help thinking your not listening - sorry if that sounds a little blunt
3rd short trade today, TS3 on 3min YM... coincide with divergence into Dp....
Anyone on board as well ?
TAS
Well, minus this one, I finish today with net +4R..... anything happening with this big jump?
TAS
Steve Griffiths
02-25-2008, 03:29 PM
Hi Guys
Nice to see the ES make it second target for +6R :)
Will it keep on going ?
Steve
Hi Guys
Nice to see the ES make it second target for +6R :)
Will it keep on going ?
Steve
Hi Steve
Hope so but its just about going to slam into the 15 min DP resistance - we shall see
Chris
d-day
02-25-2008, 03:33 PM
Well I kept my powder dry, I got my MTP Buysetup ......... and I pounced - what a fabby day - hope everyone else had a good one " :)
That was a Super MTP TS3 on the ES!
I left about 2R sitting back at the starter's blocks as I wanted to see some buyers step in ahead of me, but yes, this is turning into a real nice TS3 on the 3 minute ES - and the two pullback entries on which to add bring me to the same R level had I gone in at the signal bar itself. I've taken a good bit off up here though.
Steve Griffiths
02-25-2008, 03:34 PM
Well I kept my powder dry, I got my MTP Buysetup ......... and I pounced - what a fabby day - hope everyone else had a good one " :)
Hi Chris
Superb trade, now at +8R !
Well done Chris
Steve Griffiths
02-25-2008, 03:36 PM
I left about 2R sitting back at the starter's blocks as I wanted to see some buyers step in ahead of me, but yes, this is turning into a real nice TS3 on the 3 minute ES - and the two pullback entries on which to add bring me to the same R level had I gone in at the signal bar itself. I've taken a good bit off up here though.
Hi David,...
Agreed, a very good trade there, time to lighten the load
Great trade though - well done...........
Steve Griffiths
02-25-2008, 03:37 PM
Hi Steve
Hope so but its just about going to slam into the 15 min DP resistance - we shall see
Chris
Agreed, time to put some in the Bank...........
Nice trade and what a greta day :)
Hope lots of other MTP'ers nailed these rallies.......
Steve
d-day
02-25-2008, 03:37 PM
That was a Super MTP TS3 on the ES!
I left about 2R sitting back at the starter's blocks as I wanted to see some buyers step in ahead of me, but yes, this is turning into a real nice TS3 on the 3 minute ES - and the two pullback entries on which to add bring me to the same R level had I gone in at the signal bar itself. I've taken a good bit off up here though.
And to be honest, I was just as ready to go short as I was to go long at that point. In fact, this big thrust up has not yet turned my 30 minute back to bull trend yet - so I am still neutral and will continue to look to trade from either side until my 30 minute turns up again.
That was a Super MTP TS3 on the ES!
I left about 2R sitting back at the starter's blocks as I wanted to see some buyers step in ahead of me, but yes, this is turning into a real nice TS3 on the 3 minute ES - and the two pullback entries on which to add bring me to the same R level had I gone in at the signal bar itself. I've taken a good bit off up here though.
Yes - went for the AB but the same on the Es - combined with a 3.8R gain on the Dax this morning all in all over 10R - 2 trades - waited for what I thought was the TTT bias to kick in and bingo :)
Chris
PS Tas - really sorry my post to you looks very rude - well done on your gains
Yes - went for the AB but the same on the Es - combined with a 3.8R gain on the Dax this morning all in all over 10R - 2 trades - waited for what I thought was the TTT bias to kick in and bingo :)
Chris
PS Tas - really sorry my post to you looks very rude - well done on your gains
That's OK Chris, today you have shown all of us the way we all need to remember, I am happy with my 4R, actually I have managed a concecutive 12 winning days in a row with total 36R in the bank...
Keep the good work Chris and I appreciate your approach by putting larger degree DP on 3,5min....
Cheers,
TAS
That's OK Chris, today you have shown all of us the way we all need to remember, I am happy with my 4R, actually I have managed a concecutive 12 winning days in a row with total 36R in the bank...
Keep the good work Chris and I appreciate your approach by putting larger degree DP on 3,5min....
Cheers,
TAS
12 winning days in a row with 36R banked is way better than ANY run I have ever had - outstanding job
Thats me for the day - a Scotch and the Tele :)
12 winning days in a row with 36R banked is way better than ANY run I have ever had - outstanding job
Thats me for the day - a Scotch and the Tele :)
YES, I never had such winning days and consecutive positive R distributions before, anyway for me caution is always advised as I keep learning your wonderful threads about EXPECTANCY...
Sunrise here and it's time for me to call today's graveyard shift a stop, off to sleep during the day and see U around DAX's moment...
TAS
G Fryer
02-25-2008, 05:05 PM
I think it was a buy day.:D
Gillian
G Fryer
02-25-2008, 05:10 PM
Wow, the ES stopped right at the 15 min DP!
What a day. Pity it had to end so soon.
Gillian
d-day
02-25-2008, 05:18 PM
We knew the answer to that question before the end of last week.
The whole point of TTT is to help the trader anticipate the day's Real Trend and thus trade with that trend.
As Taylor explains the "Real Trend ... is the trend we try to buy and sell on, as distinguished from the many currents and cross-currents, small rallies and declines, first one way and then a reversal and then a swing back to the trend ... [t]hese smaller currents only confuse and do not change the ultimate direction toward the Buying and Selling objectives." emphasis added, DD.
This is what I have been trying to accomplish with Taylor's method. Rather than take every signal that comes along, I wait for those that that point in the direction of the anticipated trend. I let MTP show me a low risk/high reward entry into the anticipated trend. I do allow for price to do the unanticipated, and I treat those instances according to the guidelines Taylor sets forth. As he argues, just because price action does something other than the easiest play, "these are not exceptions to our method of trading."
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 05:35 PM
Well put dday...The Key is to have a bias on the day and when a choice MTP setup triggers, it gives that much confidence to step up to the plate. Today you thought it was a Buy day and u cleaned up on those incredible 5 min TS and/or DP Trades. I thought it was a Sell Day and got 4R to show for it. But the key is we both used our bias to take the trades.
For tomorrow, got nice TS4 setup on 15 min ER, 15 min Manual DP Resistance Area in ES, TS3 on 15 min NQ, 3 pushes on YM 5 min (end of Wave?) setting up. With 3 out of 4 Indexes Yelling Short, it should not be debatable as to what trades one should be looking at irrespective of whether it is a Sell Day or a Sell Short Day.
I know i will be looking to Short if the signals say the same, of course the economic calendar is loaded and may have something to say about it...
Have a Good Evening/Night...
--Raj
Larry22
02-25-2008, 06:08 PM
Tomorrow should be an interesting day indeed.
The hourly chart of th ER2 shows that we might have made the 4th wave of the C wave, I sure would have liked to see it climb not as high but the scenario is still there.
So if this is the case we should go lower from today's high to lower then the 3c wave (682.6) for the fith wave.
We still have to be careful as we might have a failure of the fith wave and climb higher as we have made a C wave lower then the A wave for the 2B (blue) so time will show us the path.
I forgot to mentiont that if we go higher then today's high that could mean that the C wave is over and we are in a third leg up that would bring us higher then 732.6
Laurent
d-day
02-25-2008, 06:39 PM
Well put dday...The Key is to have a bias on the day and when a choice MTP setup triggers, it gives that much confidence to step up to the plate. Today you thought it was a Buy day and u cleaned up on those incredible 5 min TS and/or DP Trades. I thought it was a Sell Day and got 4R to show for it. But the key is we both used our bias to take the trades.
Hi Raj,
I do disagree with you insofar as you are implying that we were both somehow right with respect to the TTT. Today was unequivocally a Buy Day. I traded it successfully from the long side. You traded it profitably from the short side. Nonetheless, it is, was, and forever will have been a Buy Day. Tomorrow is a Sell Day - even if the rally were to continue, tomorrow is still a sell day. Taylor's method is not subjective. If you are applying a method that allows for subjectivity, then you are not applying Taylor's analysis, but instead are applying something more akin to the LSS of Angell. Having a bias only really helps if it is the correct one - otherwise you are just getting lucky. It is indeed often the case that you can have profitable short trades on a Buy Day and vice versa. But the fact that your short trades were profitable does not change the fact that they were counter to the day's main trend.
All that being said, when one studies Taylor one will discover that there are circumstances under which one will buy on a Short Sale day and Sell Short on a Buy Day, but unlike George Angell's and your own approach, those circumstances do not then override the trading cycle.
Yes, if you thought today was a Sell Day or a Sell Short Day, then perhaps it gave you "confidence to step up to the plate." Well, like they say, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Personally, I would not have much confidence in any method that I thought as thoroughly subjective as you think the TTT is.
I hope you don't take this as a personal attack, nor do I mean to deny your skill or success as a trader. But Taylor's method has been too important to me, and is potentially as important to many here struggling to understand it and apply it to their own trading, to allow for it to be portrayed as subjective. It is as plain as the prices printed on the tape.
See you tomorrow at the bell,
d-day
d-day
02-25-2008, 06:51 PM
Tomorrow should be an interesting day indeed.
The hourly chart of th ER2 shows that we might have made the 4th wave of the C wave, I sure would have liked to see it climb not as high but the scenario is still there.
So if this is the case we should go lower from today's high to lower then the 3c wave (682.6) for the fith wave.
We still have to be careful as we might have a failure of the fith wave and climb higher as we have made a C wave lower then the A wave for the 2B (blue) so time will show us the path.
I forgot to mentiont that if we go higher then today's high that could mean that the C wave is over and we are in a third leg up that would bring us higher then 732.6
Laurent
Hi Laurent,
Thank you for sharing this with us. I am not clear on your count however. If you have time, would it be possible to perhaps show where you see the wave 4 (presumably a wave 4 up?) as having ended, and where we'd expect the wave 5 (down?) to target. Sorry to bother you for this, but I am not as experienced in wave counts as I might otherwise be, and I am still learning.
Thank you for you patience,
David
Larry22
02-25-2008, 08:45 PM
Hi Laurent,
Thank you for sharing this with us. I am not clear on your count however. If you have time, would it be possible to perhaps show where you see the wave 4 (presumably a wave 4 up?) as having ended, and where we'd expect the wave 5 (down?) to target. Sorry to bother you for this, but I am not as experienced in wave counts as I might otherwise be, and I am still learning.
Thank you for you patience,
David
I will try to explain the wave count for you.
We can see that we had a big rise from 640.1 to 732.6 labelled 1A in blue, from there we had one decline labelled (1A) in violet from there we went up in a three wave labelled a b c forming a B wave labelled (2B) so we have now (1A) and (2B) so we need a (3C) down leg but this (3C) leg is subdividing possibly in a 5 or 9 waves decline that you can see labelled as 1c 2c 3c 4c so technically if the count is right we should see at least another wave down 5c or more to reach the 62% retracement or the 100% projection or lower.
If the count is not right and we have indeed made the wave 2B (blue)low in blue then we should go higher then the wave 2c and higher then wave 1A in (blue) for a wave 3C (blue).
I hope you followed, if not let me know and I will post another chart to help you understand the possible wave count.
Laurent
Larry22
02-25-2008, 09:08 PM
The 4th wave correction should be completed if we look at this tick chart, same one that I posted friday but with my wave count updated.
If this is not the case then instead of having a 1a 2b and then 9 waves we have 1 then a b c instead of the small 1,2 so this makes this wave an impulse one 9 waves up, that is why tonight or tomorrow should be interesting as we should get an answer as if we are heading south or north.
Laurent
Raj Kumar
02-25-2008, 10:03 PM
Hi Raj,
I do disagree with you insofar as you are implying that we were both somehow right with respect to the TTT. Today was unequivocally a Buy Day. I traded it successfully from the long side. You traded it profitably from the short side. Nonetheless, it is, was, and forever will have been a Buy Day. Tomorrow is a Sell Day - eve