US Markets: Real-time Trading

[d-day]

Sorry! :o
That was suppose to read: How do you use volume at price date to determine levels of support and resistance?


You use market profile to identify various price levels where a lot of trading took place. These levels tend to be important as you will have one side trapped and the other side trying to keep from getting trapped. I'm not the MP expert though, and there are better folks than I to try to explain it. Maybe one of those good folks would be kind enough to offer a brief primer on the subject for us here.

[d-day]

I am not a Dow Theory expert, but if we get the big move up today that I think we have a chance of getting, is there anyone here who feels that he or she really knows Dow Theory enough to state definitively what price above which price must the Dow ($INDU) close in order to change the trend from Primary Bear to Primary Bull? My understanding of Dow Theory leads me to believe that week of 2-01-2008's closing high of 12743.19 is bettered on a closing basis, that would signal a Dow Theory trend change. The Transports have left there February highs long behind.

Of course, if the big move we are getting today is in the opposite direction, this question will not be as immediately relevant as it now seems to me to be.

In either case, Big Move coming soon, and I think its high odds to happen today.

[d-day]

And do any of you IB users have any idea what symbol IB uses for the Nasdaq Composite Index?

[Biggo]

And do any of you IB users have any odea what symbol IB uses for the Nasdaq Composite Index?

Hi Dave

IB symbol in TWS is COMP

Cheers

Phil

[sr100m]

try COMP for nasdaq composite in ib

[d-day]

Hi Dave

IB symbol in TWS is COMP

Cheers

Phil

try COMP for nasdaq composite in ib

Thank you both! I kept putting a "Q" at that back of it - its an old e-signal injury I guess.

[d-day]

This is as tough a day to trade as I've seen in a while. I'm up a total of 2 ticks on the ES after commish and very grateful for that ... I am terribly unsure of this market at this moment. I guess I should heed the old saying, "When in doubt, stay out."

[Larry22]

This is as tough a day to trade as I've seen in a while. I'm up a total of 2 ticks on the ES after commish and very grateful for that ... I am terribly unsure of this market at this moment. I guess I should heed the old saying, "When in doubt, stay out."

I have to say that the ES is a bit tougher today then the ER2 as this one was much easier to buy at his DP, I am still long 1 contract (took partial profits) on the ES from 1366 as I took a chance when it went close to the big DP we talked about earlier.


Laurent

[edfash]

possible long trade in the er caught a nice ride.

[Larry22]

possible long trade in the er caught a nice ride.

Yup that's the one I was talking about.

I see your psychic powers are stronger today, may the force be with you. :D


Laurent

[Larry22]

Just took profits on my last contract of the ES at 1374 as it's a DP resistance and seems to hold for the moment.


Laurent

[d-day]

Looks like 1370.50-1371 needs to hold in order not to disappoint the traders who bought the breakout of this flag-like dscending channel (shown on the 13 minute ES).

First screenshot shows initial breakout, and the second shows the potential test of the upper channel trendline as support (currently 1370.50-ish)

[d-day]

Looks like 1370.50-1371 needs to hold in order not to disappoint the traders who bought the breakout of this flag-like dscending channel (shown on the 13 minute ES).

First screenshot shows initial breakout, and the second shows the potential test of the upper channel trendline as support (currently 1370.50-ish)


Break and hold of channel a success - now watching for 1379.50-1380 minimum (I like edfash's 1390 actually - if fact, we might close above 1400 today if enough folks put both arms into the bull suit).

[Larry22]

Yup you're right as I was really tempted to buy again, as I knew that 1375 was just a partial pit stop, but I was hoping for the market to dip a bit lower.

Well that's life.

[d-day]

Yup you're right as I was really tempted to buy again, as I knew that 1375 was just a partial pit stop, but I was hoping for the market to dip a bit lower.

Well that's life.

Well, you might yet get a chance to buy 1375-ish. That would be a nice place for a pullaback to hold before another push higher. (1375-1376 as traders have been in a hury to hit the bid when it gets even close to support levels).

[d-day]

Break and hold of channel a success - now watching for 1379.50-1380 minimum (I like edfash's 1390 actually - if fact, we might close above 1400 today if enough folks put both arms into the bull suit).


Do I hear 1384?

[d-day]

Do I hear 1384?

Volume suspiciously light on that break out above 1378.50.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi D-day,

Well we are at your 1380ish target (larger degree DP) now.................. so watching with interest :)

Steve

[d-day]

Hi D-day,

Well we are at your 1380ish target (larger degree DP) now.................. so watching with interest :)

Steve

Yupsir ... me too.

$INDU just poked briefly above yesterday's high. If we can break and hold above there with some volume it should be off to the races.

[d-day]

The $INDU is nearing a hornet's nest of resistance. A break above this nearly four month range that holds today on a closing basis would be significant. A break above that down sloping trendline (red) and a hold above through the close would be a sign of surprising strength.

Volume on today's rally though strikes me as cautious at best.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi David,

We are also at a "measured move" form the low,

Steve

[edfash]

measured move up, now a measured corrective move is 1379

[Larry22]

measured move up, now a measured corrective move is 1379

True edfash as it is also 23% from the low of the wave.

What we have to watch is for the possibility of that 3 leg being a B wave, let's hope not.

Laurent

[d-day]

True edfash as it is also 23% from the low of the wave.

What we have to watch is for the possibility of that 3 leg being a B wave, let's hope not.

Laurent

Uh Oh ... this does not look good for my "New Bull Market" scenario - time to short the bounces if this long at 1376.25 doesn't work out. Tight tight tight stop, by the way.

[d-day]

Uh Oh ... this does not look good for my "New Bull Market" scenario - time to short the bounces if this long at 1376.25 doesn't work out. Tight tight tight stop, by the way.

If no go over 1377.75 I'm out - this is tough as the ES has held support but the ER2 went through it like a Pit Bull through a Pork Bone.

[edfash]

turned back from 15/60 min DP zone. volume anemic. not an ideal circumstance for continuation patterns

[d-day]

turned back from 15/60 min DP zone. volume anemic. not an ideal circumstance for continuation patterns

No sir, it sure doesn't. I shorted that bounce to and no where above 1377.75 -

as my good buddy jjc always say, "Buy Support and Sell Resistance, Dude!"



If 1375 does not hold, then I might have to put both arms in the Bear Suit.

And I didn't even get a chance to send it out the cleaners yet. Right now we're trapped between 1375 support and 1377.75 as resistance. Which way we go from here will likely, not certainly, but likely "tell" us how the day will finish.

[Larry22]

No sir, it sure doesn't. I shorted that bounce to and no where above 1377.75 -

as my good buddy jjc always say, "Buy Support and Sell Resistance, Dude!"



If 1375 does not hold, then I might have to put both arms in the Bear Suit.

And I didn't even get a chance to send it out the cleaners yet. Right now we're trapped between 1375 support and 1377.75 as resistance. Which way we go from here will likely, not certainly, but likely "tell" us how the day will finish.

Yup yup crucial moment here as if 1375 doesn't hold for the possible 4th wave then it's short otherwise sky is the limit.

Laurent

[d-day]

Yup yup crucial moment here as if 1375 doesn't hold for the possible 4th wave then it's short otherwise sky is the limit.

Laurent

Now which way is the sky again? Well, there's a uy on CNBC in the mornings named Rick Santelli who reports from the floor of the CBOT. If the market closes about here he would say that the market was "highly unchanged."

[d-day]

Now which way is the sky again? Well, there's a uy on CNBC in the mornings named Rick Santelli who reports from the floor of the CBOT. If the market closes about here he would say that the market was "highly unchanged."

Of course, being under that 1375, we may not remain highly unchanged for long.

[edfash]

everyone have a peaceful, fun-filled weekend.

[Larry22]

Of course, being under that 1375, we may not remain highly unchanged for long.

We now have a 3 wave decline in the ES, I would expect another leg down( fith one) before any good rally attempt.

I'm a bit :confused: as the ER2 doesn't have the same wave count.


Laurent

[d-day]

The ES looks like it wants to break down but the ER2 is holding her back. Who shall win? The ES Bears or the ER2 Bulls? Because I doubt they will both win.

[Larry22]

The ES looks like it wants to break down but the ER2 is holding her back. Who shall win? The ES Bears or the ER2 Bulls? Because I doubt they will both win.

Yup that's the thing when you look at 2 indexes.

I will have to study the daily charts this weekend to have a better view, I guess 1 or 2 glasses of red wine should definitely help. :D

Laurent

[Larry22]

everyone have a peaceful, fun-filled weekend.


You too MR Psychic power. :)

[Larry22]

I'm even more confuse as I have different wave count on min and tick charts.

I think I will need the bottle instead of 2 glasses. :D

Laurent

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Nice TS3 buy from the low of the day on the 3min Ym ............:)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

As a PS,

I am working on a way to get data out of NinjaTrader and into the new V6.0. But this is proving to be tricky.............. but I am working on it for you all.

I will let you know when I have more progress....

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Nice TS3 buy from the low of the day on the 3min Ym ............:)

Steve

Just raeched the DP from the prior wave b high (+5.7R)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Just raeched the first Profit target for a +7R Profit :)

I hope you all caught this one .....

Steve

[edfash]

same trade in ES

[Larry22]

same trade in ES

same in ER2 also.

[Larry22]

As a PS,

I am working on a way to get data out of NinjaTrader and into the new V6.0. But this is proving to be tricky.............. but I am working on it for you all.

I will let you know when I have more progress....

Steve

That would be great Steve.

Laurent

[TAS]

SHORT ES 1384, initial stop 1385.75...

TAS

[Steve Griffiths]

same trade in ES

Yep, and just look where the rally stopped, right at the level of the Typical Wave 3 WPT as well !!

Steve

[Larry22]

Yep, and just look where the rally stopped, right at the level of the Typical Wave 3 WPT as well !!

Steve

Also a DP from the top at the opening, time will tell if we are gonna have a good reaction from there.


Laurent

[TAS]

Well, time proves big Dp with divergence at my short didn't pan out, that's life to minus 1R from earlier TS long profit, I may call it a day to finish earlier...because if we go above here, I may get lesser chance to get a good set-up as my previous experience dictates...

Good luck all...

TAS:)



SHORT ES 1384, initial stop 1385.75...

TAS

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

After a Wave 3 high, comes a minor Wave 4 correction, before moving higher again in a Wave 5.............

Attached..

[edfash]

pushes through 3/15 min DP zones. internals very strong with intraday vix on its lows and $vold trending higher

[TreeShaker]

Just raeched the DP from the prior wave b high (+5.7R)

Steve

Steve, that looked more like a TS1 to me. So why is it a TS3? Been reading the manual again and paying more attention to the part of checking your charts re: the valid signals.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Tree shaker, a TS1 is the same as a TS3, but just on a larger degree.

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Getting nervious now on longs, as the Typical Wave 5 WPT is hit.

Steve

[Larry22]

Getting nervious now on longs, as the Typical Wave 5 WPT is hit.

Steve

Yup and let's not forget that we are in the fifth wave on the 15 min, so we are close to a top.

We coud be in the 4th wave of the fifth with wave 5 missing or wave 5 could also be completed so be careful if you are long.

Laurent

[edfash]

MTP nails it again

[edfash]

er came up short and never confirmed the new price high in the ES. the ES also tested the news spike high from fri morning globex session.

[Steve Griffiths]

MTP nails it again

Yep..... what a perfect day for Elliot Wave, the Typical Wave C WPT nailed the low............. then a 5-wave rally, with the Typical wave 5 WPT nailing the high............... now a decline into "at least" the DP from the prior Wave 4 low...........

Absolute perfection, and exactly as the Book outlines :) and MTP nailed the turns perfecly ! ;)

Steve

[d-day]

Looks like ES has an A=C down on the 5 minute, so we should know soon if a top is in as a break of 1380 should seal the reversal

[tonis]

Wot no action today?

Everyone away on holiday celebrating yesterday's big winner?

[Stefan61200]

Wot no action today?

Everyone away on holiday celebrating yesterday's big winner?

I am waiting for clear buy signal as it is a buy day. And the red wine yesterday evening was great. :D

[Larry22]

Wot no action today?

Everyone away on holiday celebrating yesterday's big winner?

Nope we're closely watching our charts and trading so we can make more money. :D


Laurent

[edfash]

Rus opened in an intermediate DP zone after retracing 100% of wave 4 (completed a 5 wave move up from 3/31 thru 4/4) and has been creeper mode up since then. an open into the DP zone from the wave 4 low would have been perfect. so it goes.

[Larry22]

Rus opened in an intermediate DP zone after retracing 100% of wave 4 (completed a 5 wave move up from 3/31 thru 4/4) and has been creeper mode up since then. an open into the DP zone from the wave 4 low would have been perfect. so it goes.


Yup you only forgot 1 thing the A-C ratio was at allmost 1,62 % at 705.

Yes that was the perfect support area to buy as I bought at 706.7 ;)

Your psychic power are still very strong again today ed. :D

[Steve Griffiths]

Yup you only forgot 1 thing the A-C ratio was at allmost 1,62 % at 705.

Yes that was the perfect support area to buy as I bought at 706.7 ;)

Your psychic power are still very strong again today ed. :D

Hi Larry

Is this what you mean ;)

Steve

[Larry22]

Hi Larry

Is this what you mean ;)

Steve
Yup how did you know that I sold at that DP Steve ?

The ABC I was talking about is from yesterday's high with the high from the day before it can't be seen automatically as we see it better on the 15 min still there was a lot of support there as we also had a DP and a few projections.

I suspect you also have some kind of psychic power like edfash. :D

Laurent

[edfash]

3rd push gives us a 3 min DP

[Larry22]

3rd push gives us a 3 min DP

Yup we now have a 5 waves up and we might stay in that first wave range unitl the Fed minutes are released at 2:00 ET.

Then we should go up for a third wave up if not it could become a third wave down.

Laurent

[TAS]

Hi Edfash,

Due to different data feed, my chart didn't paint a red sell bar, nor did it post a DP sign for me, thus I short a bit later at 713.5, I hope ER2 can decline in ABC to give me a final buy signal for late session trading today...

However, right now the internal still looks quite strong...Edfash, do U possess other unique power to read market internals...? :) Much appreciated.

TAS

3rd push gives us a 3 min DP

[TAS]

Hi Laurent,

Exactly, do U count a possible 3rd wave up based on wave 1 starting from low of today and count a possible 3rd wave down based on wave 1 from high of today so far...:)

Only time will tell which way we might go...

TAS




Then we should go up for a third wave up if not it could become a third wave down.

Laurent

[Larry22]

Hi Laurent,

Exactly, do U count a possible 3rd wave up based on wave 1 starting from low of today Yes

and count a possible 3rd wave down based on wave 1 from high of today so far...:) Nope from yesterday's high but it would me more a fifth wave down as we allready have a 3 wave decline in the ER2 but a third wave down in the ES.

Laurent

[tonis]

Is anyone else experiencing bad Interactive Brokers data connection? Or is it just me?

[TreeShaker]

Yes

Nope from yesterday's high but it would me more a fifth wave down as we allready have a 3 wave decline in the ER2 but a third wave down in the ES.

Laurent

I'm lost on these wave counts since ES hit 1388.75 to complete wave 5 up. Can you kindly do a visual for me. :confused:

[TAS]

Half of my short off at 708.5, 5 wave down...DP...divergence...

And I will reverse the rest to long if price trade above 708.9...

TAS

[Larry22]

I'm lost on these wave counts since ES hit 1388.75 to complete wave 5 up. Can you kindly do a visual for me. :confused:

I hope this pic will help you as you can clearly see the last 5 waves up on the 15 min chart.


Laurent

[TAS]

Well, Er2 DP fading itself, therefore I keep my short and trail it with stop 1 tick above swing high...

let's give it a go...

TAS

[TreeShaker]

I hope this pic will help you as you can clearly see the last 5 waves up on the 15 min chart.


Laurent

Thank you very much Laurent. I didn't realize there was a 5 ct inside the 5th wave. :)

[TAS]

Another profit day but leaving some bites on the table...in hindsight wave 5 = wave 1 from high of the day...big reversal bar (though well below DP)...and TTT buy day...

Still can call it a day, so see U all tomorrow..

Good luck with last hour trading...

TAS

Well, Er2 DP fading itself, therefore I keep my short and trail it with stop 1 tick above swing high...

let's give it a go...

TAS

[edfash]

washout below the lod and right into a DP zone with distinct buy divergence

[Larry22]

washout below the lod and right into a DP zone with distinct buy divergence

Also right in the support area, it will be interesting to see if the market will hold from there as we now have a potential ABC if that low is broken then this will confirm a decline.

Until now the wave count for the upside hasn't been broken.

Laurent

[TreeShaker]

Also right in the support area, it will be interesting to see if the market will hold from there as we now have a potential ABC if that low is broken then this will confirm a decline.

Until now the wave count for the upside hasn't been broken.

Laurent

If I have this right, the ES & ER are finishing wave 2 or b and will probably go down to take out the low of today, which will then be a dwn C or 3 leg?

[Larry22]

If I have this right, the ES & ER are finishing wave 2 or b and will probably go down to take out the low of today, which will then be a dwn C or 3 leg?


Nope if you look at the last chart (15 min) that I have posted you will see that we had a possible ABC formation after that 5 waves up on the ES so I was talking about wave 2 down from this up leg.

All you need to remember is that if the ES breaks the 1360 level there should be a lot of selling.

Laurent

[Larry22]

Until now the wave count for the upside hasn't been broken.

Laurent

That says it all. :D

[miles2go]

Nope if you look at the last chart (15 min) that I have posted you will see that we had a possible ABC formation after that 5 waves up on the ES so I was talking about wave 2 down from this up leg.

All you need to remember is that if the ES breaks the 1360 level there should be a lot of selling.

Laurent

Hi Larry,
Could this be another possibility if we consider another 5wave count (downside) after the last wave5 instead of a corrective ABC(we just got today) and then a trend continuation up with a 5wave count?

[Larry22]

Hi Larry,
Could this be another possibility if we consider another 5wave count (downside) after the last wave5 instead of a corrective ABC(we just got today) and then a trend continuation up with a 5wave count?

I agree for the possible YM count as it has a slightly different wave pattern. The ES did a very small third wave lower compare to the YM who didn't thus forming an ABC, so different possible wave counts but this doesn't mean that we can't go down as if it does we would have to relabelled the C wave as a weak b wave but this is another story. Tomorrow should give us more clue as where the market wants to go, as we should never exclude a possible wave count.

P.S. I can't really compare your wave count as I don't have data for the YM as I use E-Signal data e-mini's feed only.

Laurent


Laurent

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

The AB (Er2) was amazing yesterday, with MTP nailing virtually every important high and low.............. amazing

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

The charts say it all..............

DP to DP for a nice +4.5R Profit

Steve

[Larry22]

Hi Guys

The charts say it all..............

DP to DP for a nice +4.5R Profit

Steve

The ER2 and the ES made the same thing (manual DP set-up). I just took some profits as I expect a 4th wave in the fifth for the ER2 from my 15 min chart.

Laurent

[richbois]

The ER2 and the ES made the same thing (manual DP set-up). I just took some profits as I expect a 4th wave in the fifth for the ER2 from my 15 min chart.

Laurent

aren't we done with the fifth yet at 700.xx was max W5 if my count is right

Richard

[Larry22]

aren't we done with the fifth yet at 700.xx was max W5 if my count is right

Richard

I would say you are probably right as 700 is 1,62% the lenght of wave 1. I also had a DP in that area, as we also seems to have 5 waves in the last leg from the 5 min chart, so time will tell us if they want to extend or climb from there.

Good work there Richard, I see you're a quick learner. :D


Laurent

[Steve Griffiths]

I agree here

See how we had 5-waves down, which was followed by a rally into the "opposing" DP zone, on the 5min chart

But notice how this rally subdivided into an ABC, generating a TS4 sell on the 3min chart

The result..... a nice quick +2.3R :)

Steve

[Larry22]

I agree here

See how we had 5-waves down, which was followed by a rally into the "opposing" DP zone, on the 5min chart

But notice how this rally subdivided into an ABC, generating a TS4 sell on the 3min chart

The result..... a nice quick +2.3R :)

Steve


Yup, exactly what I did, but I'm stil short as I took partial profits and expecting 696 and following with the ATR on a low time frame tick chart to clear the rest of my position.


Laurent

[Larry22]

Yup, exactly what I did, but I'm stil short as I took partial profits and expecting 696 and following with the ATR on a low time frame tick chart to clear the rest of my position.


Laurent

That's it for me I took my last contract out at 696.7.

I won't complain. :D

[davidh]

Yup, exactly what I did, but I'm stil short as I took partial profits and expecting 696 and following with the ATR on a low time frame tick chart to clear the rest of my position.


Laurent

The 696 was a very good call Larry. May I ask why you were expecting that level? Thanks, David

[Larry22]

The 696 was a very good call Larry. May I ask why you were expecting that level? Thanks, David


Very simple as if you look at a 15 min charts from the low 03-31-08 at 679.9 and the high 04-04-08 at 721 all you needed wass to have your retracements on then you would have seen that the 62 % was 696, I also had other targets around this price related to waves but these I won't talk about.


Laurent

[davidh]

OK, thanks. Even clearer on the 60 min. Seems to be a TS4 buy there now at the 200ema. But downtrend still appears strong.
David

[d-day]

Very simple as if you look at a 15 min charts from the low 03-31-08 at 679.9 and the high 04-04-08 at 721 all you needed wass to have your retracements on then you would have seen that the 62 % was 696, I also had other targets around this price related to waves but these I won't talk about.


Laurent

Call me greedy (or call me stubborn) but I am holding out for 695.70

[Larry22]

Call me greedy (or call me stubborn) but I am holding out for 695.70

Wow :eek: , you sure do have balls d-day. :D

Then again one leg down seems to be missing on the ER2 but both the ER2 and the ES were in a potential reversal target area, so I didn't had the guts to hold it like you.

Laurent

[davidh]

Err, make that stubborn. You can't be greedy for $30

[d-day]

Wow :eek: , you sure do have balls d-day. :D

Then again one leg down seems to be missing on the ER2 but both the ER2 and the ES were in a potential reversal target area, so I didn't had the guts to hold it like you.

Laurent

I just do not have that level of imagination that would allow me to conceive of a scenario where we do not close at or near the LOD today.

Of course, there are precious few minutes left in the day, and I am still waiting for my 695.70. Though she's calling ... I hear her in the distance.


UPDATE: Apparently, I was hearing things

[Eddo]

Hi there- been away

Anyone else think (based on TTT) that we are looking for 1388 as a High on the ES on this SS day?

[richbois]

Hi there- been away

Anyone else think (based on TTT) that we are looking for 1388 as a High on the ES on this SS day?

Welcome back Chris

well based on my calculations we have a 55% chance of getting above 1377.50 and up to 1385 but based on the average daily range lately i doubt it

but the market will tell us i guess

[Eddo]

Welcome back Chris

well based on my calculations we have a 55% chance of getting above 1377.50 and up to 1385 but based on the average daily range lately i doubt it

but the market will tell us i guess

Hi Richard - thanks for that

I have 1388 as my Potential high for the SS day - do you have the same figure? It seems v high to me and I was wondering if I have some bad data in my spreadsheet.

[richbois]

Hi Richard - thanks for that

I have 1388 as my Potential high for the SS day - do you have the same figure? It seems v high to me and I was wondering if I have some bad data in my spreadsheet.

based on the 24 hr session i get a potential of 1385.44 and based on day session i get 1380.68 or 1383.41 depending how much history is used

[Eddo]

based on the 24 hr session i get a potential of 1385.44 and based on day session i get 1380.68 or 1383.41 depending how much history is used

Thank you - I think I am going to run the book on the SPX instead of the ES which should give me my figures based on market hours - which I don't think is what I am getting from Qcollector on the ES and the other eMinis

[richbois]

Thank you - I think I am going to run the book on the SPX instead of the ES which should give me my figures based on market hours - which I don't think is what I am getting from Qcollector on the ES and the other eMinis

you can set Qcollector on either 24hr or Day session and on SPX i get a potential high of 1377.81

[Eddo]

you can set Qcollector on either 24hr or Day session and on SPX i get a potential high of 1377.81

Once again thank you - I didn't know I could do that - going to have a play with it - 1377 sounds more reasonable to me tho !

[sr100m]

Hi Richard and Chris

Would you mind explaining how you are calculating your potenital highs - are you averaging declines or rallies and if so how many cycles back do you include in your calculation?

Thanks

[G Fryer]

They are talking Taylor Trading (a concept D-Day introduced here early in the year). The projected high is based on the average rally of a short sell day high (today is a short sell day) from a buy day high. If you haven't read the book and aren't keeping a running spreadsheet, this won't mean anything to you. It isn't based on Elliott Wave theory or MTP.

You can see however that we reversed at a DP, and are now correcting down. The highs they mentioned actually correspond with a higher DP.. so maybe we'll make it up there this afternoon.

Note: today is a Short Sell day... but you probably would not have sold short today -- the system works about half of the time.

HTH

Gillian

[richbois]

Hi Richard and Chris

Would you mind explaining how you are calculating your potenital highs - are you averaging declines or rallies and if so how many cycles back do you include in your calculation?

Thanks

most of my data goes back to Jan 1 2008

there is alot of references to averaging all sorts of things in the 1st 3 chapters

so i average

Decline
Rally on Sell Day
Rally on Sell Short Day
Sell Day High greater than Buy Day High
Buying Day HIGH # of points the Buy Day High was higher than Sell Short day High
Buy Under # of points the Buy Day Low was lower than Sell Short day Low
Buying Day Low Violation # of points the Sell Day Low was lower than Buy day Low
Total of the Decline for the week
Total of the Rally for the week
3 Day Cycle Rally from Low of Buy Day to High of Sell Short Day

[grose]

I understand your point of view, that's why I've mentioned it before and will remind again that these analysis are only one view as the possibility of where the market can go.

Elliott wave analysis can be interpreted differently as you have people analysing it. There is one sure thing at certain price levels and waves you will get reactions that is only what I try to show.

That is one of the reason why I won't post live intraday wave counts as even if I have a wave pattern you can allways have extension and to see that you need to be able to read waves and this this takes years.

I trade waves patterns with DP, retracements and projections if I don't have both then I don't take the trade. I also know that I will most likely allways have a reaction from where I buy or sell then it is up to me to manage my trades.

Does it help me to have possible scenario :rolleyes: , did I sell near the high at the opening today ;) did I predict that we would possibly make a new high in the ER2 2 days ago.

All I do is deal with probabilities just like MTP software does.

I sure invite you to follow the system that Steve has put in place as this is a very good one, I follow it too, the only difference is that sometimes I don't take some of the signals if I think the market is heading the other way but again this is a risk that I can live with even if I'm wrong sometimes. Nobody is perfect and can be right 100% of the times otherwise I would have allready retired from trading and enjoying all the money that I would have made. :D

Hi,

I've been off the boards for a good couple of weeks. Excellent points both Laurent and d-day -- thank you for your thoughts.

Gordon

[Larry22]

most of my data goes back to Jan 1 2008

there is alot of references to averaging all sorts of things in the 1st 3 chapters

so i average

Decline
Rally on Sell Day
Rally on Sell Short Day
Sell Day High greater than Buy Day High
Buying Day HIGH # of points the Buy Day High was higher than Sell Short day High
Buy Under # of points the Buy Day Low was lower than Sell Short day Low
Buying Day Low Violation # of points the Sell Day Low was lower than Buy day Low
Total of the Decline for the week
Total of the Rally for the week
3 Day Cycle Rally from Low of Buy Day to High of Sell Short Day

Wow :eek: I admire your work Richard as I think that it is easier for me to count waves and make my projections and retracements then doing all the calculations and research that you do.

Now I realise that d-day must have short night of sleep with all these calculations and his kids and wife, and he does all that with a laptop. :o

I feel cheap as I have time to do my anaysis during the day then do the dishes the laundry, the cooking, vacuuming feeding my hungry cat. :)


Laurent

[richbois]

Wow :eek: I admire your work Richard as I think that it is easier for me to count waves and make my projections and retracements then doing all the calculations and research that you do.

Now I realise that d-day must have short night of sleep with all these calculations and his kids and wife, and he does all that with a laptop. :o

I feel cheap as I have time to do my anaysis during the day then do the dishes the laundry, the cooking, vacuuming feeding my hungry cat. :)


Laurent

you forgot to mention milk the cows too :)

excel does most of the work for me but the wave count i depend more on your great posts then my count

[Larry22]

you forgot to mention milk the cows too :)

excel does most of the work for me but the wave count i depend more on your great posts then my count

True for the cow but now I'm so used to it that I do it while I sleep (sleep walking) :D

[edfash]

the 15 min chart completed 5 waves down yesterday, as pointed out by laurent. one would expect at a minimum a .786 retracement of the 5th wave, ideally entry into the DP zone of the w5 high.

after a retest of the w5 low this am the market took off and reached the .786 retracement to the tick, this occurred at a 5 min DP/sell with 8 ticks of risk.

[Larry22]

the 15 min chart completed 5 waves down yesterday, as pointed out by laurent. one would expect at a minimum a .786 retracement of the 5th wave, ideally entry into the DP zone of the w5 high.

after a retest of the w5 low this am the market took off and reached the .786 retracement to the tick, this occurred at a 5 min DP/sell with 8 ticks of risk.

Yup what a trade, I was short at 701.3 from the TS3 based on tick charts then decided to reverse a bit late at 697.6 as I had a TS1 confirmation from my tick chart.

C'est la vie !

I sure did enjoy the nice ride up though. :D

P.S. Did I mention that I sold again at 710.6 as it was in a DP zone and bought my last contract at 707.2 as we had TS3 and TS4 on the ES and NQ. I'm now flat and decided to take a break for the rest of the day as I don't remeber if I have milked my cow this morning.

Laurent

[TreeShaker]

Wow :eek: I admire your work Richard as I think that it is easier for me to count waves and make my projections and retracements then doing all the calculations and research that you do.

Now I realise that d-day must have short night of sleep with all these calculations and his kids and wife, and he does all that with a laptop. :o

I feel cheap as I have time to do my anaysis during the day then do the dishes the laundry, the cooking, vacuuming feeding my hungry cat. :)


Laurent

That's your penalty for working at home. LOL

[d-day]

I don't care how late in the day it is - if 1360.50 does not hold, the sellers will likely sell her hard. The only thing that may save the day is that the ER2 is meeting a minor DP at the same time.

[Larry22]

I don't care how late in the day it is - if 1360.50 does not hold, the sellers will likely sell her hard. The only thing that may save the day is that the ER2 is meeting a minor DP at the same time.


You're right d-day as we have an ABC in the ES and a double ABC in the ER2.

The B wave could be over and this could be the first wave down of the C wave.

Laurent

[TreeShaker]

You're right d-day as we have an ABC in the ES and a double ABC in the ER2.

The B wave could be over and this could be the first wave down of the C wave.

Laurent

Are you saying that the last leg down that was marked 5 was also an A and the trip up from 696 was leg B ending at 710, and now we are maybe in C down?

[Larry22]

Are you saying that the last leg down that was marked 5 was also an A and the trip up from 696 was leg B ending at 710, and now we are maybe in C down?


This is a possibility but the thing is that this up leg could also be counted as 1A up so the 3 leg down on the 3 and 5 min could also be labelled as 2B and we would make a 3C for the B wave going for the top.

I hope you understand this as this is not easy to follow as I have 2 different possible wave count so again only time will tell.

Laurent

[Steve Griffiths]

This is a possibility but the thing is that this up leg could also be counted as 1A up so the 3 leg down on the 3 and 5 min could also be labelled as 2B and we would make a 3C for the B wave going for the top.

I hope you understand this as this is not easy to follow as I have 2 different possible wave count so again only time will tell.

Laurent

Hi Guys,

There is a very important lesson here for everybody reading these posts. Larry has hit here on the main weakness of “traditional” Elliott Wave Analysis, in that sometimes you can get too many “alternate counts”. This breeds uncertainty. This, combined with the vast number of possible “complex wave counts” that can unfold sometimes, “in my personal view” makes traditional Elliott Wave very very tricky. This is why I developed my own “unique isolation approach”.

Over 20 years of research I have found that Elliott Wave patterns are best used “in isolation”, and then only for identifying tradable opportunities. This then avoids all the uncertainty during the 50% where a particular wave count is “uncertain” as well as all the other shortcomings of traditional EW analysis.

So my advice is to keep things simple, accept that EW analysis will only be clear about 50% of the time and during the other 50% (like Larry has done here, because he is a EW expert) just admit that the pattern is unclear so don’t use it.

This is what the automatic wave counts in MTP do, they are designed to only work when the pattern is clear and then only with the best simple wave counts. Anything more and you will get yourselves into trouble.

I hope this advice has helped, and show how Elliott Wave analysis should be used in the Real World…

Steve

[d-day]

Anyone else trying a long ES down here in the 1345's?

[d-day]

696.1 held on the ER2

TTT Buy Day is on and stop is 1344.75 on my long ES - for 3 tick risk (but I will go to +2tick stop soon, but that's me. 1350-1351.50 level must be broken and held to make for a rally and not a bounce.

I still have to be wary of the TVGR.

[d-day]

ER2 is at a DP off the initial low (shown here on a two minute chart) which corresponds to the 695.70-696.1 support.

This is make or break for a rally methinks - if the ER2 finds buyers here, we may close the gap, if the ER2 is overwhelmed with sellers, then it will be sell the bounces mode until proven otherwise.

[Larry22]

ER2 is at a DP off the initial low (shown here on a two minute chart) which corresponds to the 695.70-696.1 support.

This is make or break for a rally methinks - if the ER2 finds buyers here, we may close the gap, if the ER2 is overwhelmed with sellers, then it will be sell the bounces mode until proven otherwise.

I agree with you d-day we could be at a turning point.

P.S. 1 more wave down could be missing in the C leg, time and wave pattern will tell us.

Laurent

[d-day]

I agree with you d-day we could be at a turning point.

P.S. 1 more wave down could be missing in the C leg, time and wave pattern will tell us.

Laurent

I am surprised by the strength we've seen so far today, especially in the ER2.

Also, for those so inclined ... take a look at the daily $VIX. Even with the market down as big as it is, the $VIX has struggled and thus far has been unable to retake and hold above its 200 day simple moving average. While I am no permaBear, I am certainly not a raging Bull. But I have to say that if someone were to put a gun to my head and force me to hold a position from right now until Monday, I would rather be long than short.

Of course, I am probably wrong and the $DOW will end the day -300 points!

[d-day]

Surprising Strength be darned ... I'm trying a little ER2 short right at the break of this little uptrend line. Short at 698.50 with a 699.1 stop. I take half off if I can get 1.5 ER2 points and then stop goes to breakeven. So I'd like to see a 696.9 print to get me a Free Trade, so to speak.

[d-day]

So I'd like to see a 696.9 print to get me a Free Trade, so to speak.

ER2 Short Part Un (or is it Une?) has been accomplished, now Part Deux is the DP of this morning's low.

Of course, Part Deux might also be getting stopped out at breakeven.

[d-day]

ER2 Short Part Un (or is it Une?) has been accomplished, now Part Deux is the DP of this morning's low.

Of course, Part Deux might also be getting stopped out at breakeven.

Moving stop to 698 even.


Not unlike watching a caterpillar form its Chrysalis ...

[d-day]

Moving stop to 698 even.


Not unlike watching a caterpillar form its Chrysalis ...


... and emerge as beautiful Butterfly

[Larry22]

Wow :eek: All this happened while I was out for lunch. :o


Better luck next time :D

[TreeShaker]

Moving stop to 698 even.


Not unlike watching a caterpillar form its Chrysalis ...

Did you reverse at the 15 DP @ .685 retrace of previous impluse wave up and .382 ext of last leg down. Maybe tighten stops? Don't know, just an observer today.

[edfash]

this represented an ABC on the 1600t chart into yesterday's lod which was the major pivot to stay below after the large gap down.

[d-day]

Did you reverse at the 15 DP @ .685 retrace of previous impluse wave up and .382 ext of last leg down. Maybe tighten stops? Don't know, just an observer today.

Hi Woody,

I covered at 694.10 but I did not reverse. Here is the ER2 as I see it now, and I would like to see what happens if/when price gets back to yesterday's LOD before deciding my next move. TVGR in effect on the ER2, so I am cautious with longs right now. I am more inclined to go short again around 696.1-696.4.

Best wishes,

d-day

[d-day]

this represented an ABC on the 1600t chart into yesterday's lod which was the major pivot to stay below after the large gap down.


edfash ... you sure do paint pretty pictures with your tick charts :)

Nice trade!

[d-day]

Hi Woody,

I would like to see what happens if/when price gets back to yesterday's LOD before deciding my next move. TVGR in effect on the ER2, so I am cautious with longs right now. I am more inclined to go short again around 696.1-696.4.

Somedays it really is as easy as jjc says ... "Buy support and Sell resistance, Dude!"

[TreeShaker]

Somedays it really is as easy as jjc says ... "Buy support and Sell resistance, Dude!"

Where is jjc? It looks like ER sunk thru the suport at 696 and will probably go to 690 to 687.9 before any other support. But the mkt will do what it wants.

[d-day]

Where is jjc?

I don't know where jjc is, but I do know that if Uncle BenBernanke doesn't show up soo with some PPT money, and if the ES gets down belwo 1338ish, there may be a giant sucking sound as the ES gets pulled through that monster gap from two weeks ago.

[Larry22]

Where is jjc? It looks like ER sunk thru the suport at 696 and will probably go to 690 to 687.9 before any other support. But the mkt will do what it wants.


Don't forget 691 is the 38% retracement from the daily bottom. The ES is also at his 38%.

Laurent

[d-day]

We should get a bounce here back to the 693-694ish level where failure to retake and hold 694.1 makes me a seller again. Of course, we do not need to bounce here, and we may not; and we need not see sellers step in at 694.1 or so, and we may not. As Laurent says, only time will tell.

[TreeShaker]

I don't know where jjc is, but I do know that if Uncle BenBernanke doesn't show up soo with some PPT money, and if the ES gets down belwo 1338ish, there may be a giant sucking sound as the ES gets pulled through that monster gap from two weeks ago.

Do I see the boys in the pit putting on deep dive suits? ;)

[d-day]

We should get a bounce here back to the 693-694ish level where failure to retake and hold 694.1 makes me a seller again. Of course, we do not need to bounce here, and we may not; and we need not see sellers step in at 694.1 or so, and we may not. As Laurent says, only time will tell.

Very doubtful we will see any bounce get this high today.

Next stop is 685.50-686. If we get below there, look out below.

[edfash]

once the market broke down the gap area left open has been a chart magnet. since we completed a 5 wave sequence off the lows of 3/17, it is likely that this move down is corrective (sure doesn't feel corrective). if C=A that takes us to 1331, a 1.382 extension is 1316.5. the key low pivot is the 3/ 31 low at 1313.5, and the DP zone off that pivot is 1305. a 786 retrace from that low pivot is 1329.5 which lines up nicely with a 1:1 ABC down.

only time will tell. great trading to all.

[Larry22]

once the market broke down the gap area left open has been a chart magnet. since we completed a 5 wave sequence off the lows of 3/17, it is likely that this move down is corrective (sure doesn't feel corrective). if C=A that takes us to 1331, a 1.382 extension is 1316.5. the key low pivot is the 3/ 31 low at 1313.5, and the DP zone off that pivot is 1305. a 786 retrace from that low pivot is 1329.5 which lines up nicely with a 1:1 ABC down.

only time will tell. great trading to all.

Yup we are getting very close to a possible bottom as we are in the 5th wave of that last leg on the 60 min and 1600 tick charts.

Laurent

[Larry22]

Well back to househod duties, as I have to vacuum the house and then go milk the cows. :D

[TreeShaker]

Very doubtful we will see any bounce get this high today.

Next stop is 685.50-686. If we get below there, look out below.

Regardless of where it goes from here you have had a very nice trade and entered on a very tech. approach, the old Trend Line violation. :D Nice trade David. :)

[edfash]

vix & trin on their highs, $vold on the low, breadth 1900.

[d-day]

Very doubtful we will see any bounce get this high today.

Next stop is 685.50-686. If we get below there, look out below.

So what was the low of the day on the ER2, anyway?

[edfash]

here is a chart with the current projections after completion of a rising 5 wvae sequence.
have a wonderful weekend.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Yes, it was a nice day yesterday. With the trend well down for the day, it was defiantly the day to look to run the short trades............. and the 3min NQ did us proud, with two nice sell set-ups, the second of which ran to a lovely +8R Profit :)

As I say, just keep it simple.................

[TAS]

Good morning ALL,

Anyone has problem logining onto NinjaTrader 6.5 platform?

Keen to sort it out, appreciate any comments...

TAS

[edfash]

no problems here

[Larry22]

Good morning ALL,

Anyone has problem logining onto NinjaTrader 6.5 platform?

Keen to sort it out, appreciate any comments...

TAS

Same here no problems for loging in.

[TAS]

no problems here

Same here no problems for loging in.

Thank you both, it's really daunting when this is unique to me...WORKING HARD ON IT :(

No idea if any action out there for MTPers (including wave lovers)...

God saves me OR God lost me :confused:

Good luck.

TAS

[edfash]

been looking at the market from the long side, trying to see if the 15/30 min buy divergences can kick in. like trying to get blood from a rock.
for me the first MTP signal just fired, a TS3 sell on the 3 min er.

[Larry22]

been looking at the market from the long side, trying to see if the 15/30 min buy divergences can kick in. like trying to get blood from a rock.
for me the first MTP signal just fired, a TS3 sell on the 3 min er.

I sold theER2 (based on tick charts signals), took profits then bought and took profits and I'm now flat waiting for a clear signal as the market seems to try to establish a trend.

Laurent

[TreeShaker]

Thank you both, it's really daunting when this is unique to me...WORKING HARD ON IT :(

No idea if any action out there for MTPers (including wave lovers)...

God saves me OR God lost me :confused:

Good luck.

TAS

TAS are you having problems getting your data feed to update your charts?
I had that problem last week and after several emails from NT I decided to go back to vers 6 and everything is fine now.

[TreeShaker]

Laurent & Edfash, if my wave ct is correct on ER the low of today could be the end of a leg 3 and the 5 min TS3 could be the end of leg 4. ???

[TreeShaker]

Re: wave cts, if I'm correct, the current ER TS3 should go down to the area of 677.

[Larry22]

Laurent & Edfash, if my wave ct is correct on ER the low of today could be the end of a leg 3 and the 5 min TS3 could be the end of leg 4. ???


Possible from the 5 min chart point of view.

[G Fryer]

We now have the 3/31-4/1 gap filled and its at 0.786 Fib retracement on the ES.

Gillian

[edfash]

this is the way i am seeing it now.

the 60 min chart has traced an ABC correction down after a 5 wave advance from the mar 17. the correction in price came into the .786 retrace of the 4th wave up and A=C. perfect time for a bounce. doesn't feel like it wants to bounce, time will tell.
good trading to all.

[TreeShaker]

this is the way i am seeing it now.

the 60 min chart has traced an ABC correction down after a 5 wave advance from the mar 17. the correction in price came into the .786 retrace of the 4th wave up and A=C. perfect time for a bounce. doesn't feel like it wants to bounce, time will tell.
good trading to all.

Thanks Edfash, that makes my charts look better.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Interesting that you all have been looking for a bottom today............ because the 5min ES DP buy would have fitted in very nicely with your analysis :)

Result was a nice +2.8R profit

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Then there was the +2.9R on the 3mim YM on the way down to the ES long trade I mentioned in my earlier post

yes there have been some small (-1R) losses today, but there also have been some nice trades as well

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Interesting that you all have been looking for a bottom today............ because the 5min ES DP buy would have fitted in very nicely with your analysis :)

Result was a nice +2.8R profit

Steve

Not only that, but the DP target on the 5min Chart as also "in the same area" as the Typical Wave 5 WPT on the 3min Chart. Notice how this rally unfolded as a minor 5-wave advance on the 3min Chart ............ yet more reason to bank profit on the 5min DP long tarde, and nail the high ;)

Steve

[Larry22]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.....
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ....
:rolleyes:

Boring it is for now, since the ES retraced to the 23% from the last B wave or wave 2 and ER2 did his 38% from same wave, everything stopped as we may be in a wave 2 as we seems to be in a consolidation phase.

Time will tell

Laurent

[Steve Griffiths]

Who cares if it is boring............... because MTP is making good money today ............ and that is why we are here - not for excitement ;)

Steve

The weekend is for skydiving :eek:

[TreeShaker]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.....
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ....
:rolleyes:

Boring it is for now, since the ES retraced to the 23% from the last B wave or wave 2 and ER2 did his 38% from same wave, everything stopped as we may be in a wave 2 as we seems to be in a consolidation phase.

Time will tell

Laurent

Did you make any trades after this post? I have all my filters back on and didn't get any signals. I have them on until learn I to manually filter signals better. Looks like that last leg down on 5min is a B with an ABC. So if that's right, tomorrow should be a C leg up. I wonder what the Taylor people have to say about that?

[richbois]

: Did you make any trades after this post? I have all my filters back on and didn't get any signals. I have them on until learn I to manually filter signals better. Looks like that last leg down on 5min is a B with an ABC. So if that's right, tomorrow should be a C leg up. I wonder what the Taylor people have to say about that?

As far as TTT goes tomorrow is a Short Sale Day

We have a 57% chance of going lower then todays low and the average violation could take us to 1314 on ES and 674 on ER2

We also have a 55% chance of getting higher then the high of today and that average is 1347 for ES and 699-700 for ER2

we closed pretty much in the middle on both and i am not an expert on interpreting the numbers I generate I guess it will depend if we make the high 1st or last tomorrow

[d-day]

As it is short sale day, and as I will miss most of the day, I am trying to take a short ER2 position here using a manual DP target as entry. I have had a sell limit at 691, but I lowered it to 690.9. The DP is 690.90-691.1 (approx.)

Initial stop is 1.5 points in case we spike through and I get filled.


Note: I was filled while trying to upload this post (slow connection today).

[d-day]

I have had a sell limit at 691, but I lowered it to 690.9. The DP is 690.90-691.1 (approx.)

Initial stop is 1.5 points in case we spike through and I get filled.

Note: I was filled while trying to upload this post (slow connection today).

So far so good - taking a little off here at 689.80 at the moving average in case buyers step in here for a third drive up.

[d-day]

So far so good - taking a little off here at 689.80 at the moving average in case buyers step in here for a third drive up.

There goes the third push, anymore, and I'm out - stop is now 691.4, one tick above the high and 4 ticks above my entry.

I have to run, so good luck to all today (except for those on the other side of my trade;) )

[d-day]

I could not believe I heard my alarm going off telling me them Bandits done stopped me out on a phony spike.

Oh well, back in the saddle and short again at 691. Why? Becasue it is short sale day and there is a tonnage of divergence. I don't know if we go lower or not, but you got to do what the charts are telling you to do. Also, for anyone paying attention, the ES gapped open into DP resistance, so everyone here has been given a chance by MTP to get short.

I do have to run - this is my vacation week, after all.

Stops are in, limit orders for some profits are in, and I'm out.

[TAS]

Hi Treeshaker,

After re-installing SP1 for Microsoft .NET framework 2.0, I am now OK with NINJA 6.5, and I have no data feed issue before... NT support did show their efficiency to sort me out...

Hope U are well...\

TAS


TAS are you having problems getting your data feed to update your charts?
I had that problem last week and after several emails from NT I decided to go back to vers 6 and everything is fine now.

[Steve Griffiths]

Good call guys on being a TTT short day as this helped bais the trades...........

For example DP to DP for a +5.6R Profit on the 3min ES ..... nice :)

Steve

[TreeShaker]

Laurent & Edfash, it looks to me that the ER is in a mjr wave C up and that the DP at the low of today may have been the extent of the TTT short sell and is now in a minor wave 5 up on the 3 min or finishing off a complex wave 4. What do you guys think?

PS: I think DD is going to be disappointed when he checks back in.

[edfash]

the markets seem to be devoid of any energy, but i have not seen anythin that violates the bullish structure as of yet. within the context of the larger time frames there will always be nice opportunities on both the long and short sides. i adhere to steve's belief that one should not try to force wave counts when they are not apparrent. my 3200tick roadmap has been in a narrow consolidation for 2 days now.
steve had a beautiful manual DP in the ES, and the dax has provided opportunity on the long side.
great fortunes for the rest of the day.

[tonis]

TTT SS day?

My god, this "bias" has cost me a lot of money today...

I missed the first part of the session and then... disaster

[d-day]

TTT SS day?

My god, this "bias" has cost me a lot of money today...

I missed the first part of the session and then... disaster


Are you sure that it was TTT that caused your disaster, and not you having missed the first part of the day, when the ES gapped open above yesterday's high and immediately sold off to trade below yesterday's low?

[Larry22]

TTT SS day?

My god, this "bias" has cost me a lot of money today...

I missed the first part of the session and then... disaster

Sorry for your loss as it is important to understand that TTT can't be taken alone.

You need to have a long term plan and possible profit targets and stops as I had a game plan today as I was short until the ABC was completed in the ER2 on the 15 min charts as we possibly had wave 1A and I was expecting a wave 2B then a 3C.

So TTT was good to me at the opening until my price was reached.

Laurent

[d-day]

Sorry for your loss as it is important to understand that TTT can't be taken alone.

You need to have a long term plan and possible profit targets and stops
Laurent

Well said, Laurent. And, if I may add this - TTT is a method for organizing your approach to the day's trade by observing how price acts around prior highs, lows, and closes. In other words, it organizes your trading so that you are buying support and selling resistance, and paying attention to whether prior support, once broken, becomes resistance, or if that broken support is recovered and held.

For example, once prices broke below yesterday's lows, the question of short bias was confirmed so long as yesterday's lows were not recovered and held. Once price traded above yesterday's lows, and those lows held the retest as support, then one should have expected that the morning's decline would be retraced, if not in whole, then at least in a siginificant part.

Also, pay attention to what time it is. The morning's trend is often reversed during the 11:30-2PM EDT time frame, and will often resume between 1:30-2:30 PM EDT.

This morning for the ES 1331.75-1332 was the pivotal area. Where price is in relation to that level will determine my bias for the afternoon. If we break below there, 1329.28-1329.75 is next level to watch. And so on and so on.

[tonis]

Yes, I know I cant blame it on anybody but myself, but I needed to to say it.

And in any case, it was not total disaster, just a couple of -1Rs, but they have followed a couple of bad days...

[d-day]

PS: I think DD is going to be disappointed when he checks back in.

Est-ce que je peux demander pourquoi?

[Larry22]

Est-ce que je peux demander pourquoi?

Wow ton français est excellent d-day. :D

Translation : Wow your french is excellent

[d-day]

Wow ton français est excellent d-day. :D

Translation : Wow your french is excellent

J'ai étudié le français dans le lycée il y a 24 ans. Mais je ne peux pas parler lui ou l'undertand il parlé. Même maintenant I a eu besoin d'un dictionnaire.

[Larry22]

J'ai étudié le français dans le lycée il y a 24 ans. Mais je ne peux pas parler lui ou l'undertand il parlé. Même maintenant I a eu besoin d'un dictionnaire.

I didn't know that but from now on I can e-mail you in french if you want to practice your french. :)

[Larry22]

Trading was easier on the ER2 today from top to bottom, then bottom to top. :)

I like it when the market does what you expected it would do. :D


Laurent

[d-day]

I didn't know that but from now on I can e-mail you in french if you want to practice your french. :)

Hi Laurent, sorry for the late reply, I had to run (I am technically "off this week" after all lol. How about EW stuff in English, and non EW stuff in French - I can't imagine trying to learn EW in French, as I find it difficult enough in English!

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

What a perfect day on the ER2 yesterday.......... a "gap open DP sell" followed by a decline into the "opposing DP" (which was also a 15min TS3 buy) which was the low of the day !

Then, the ER2 make an impulsive 5-wave rally, but just look where this rally stopped, right at the Typical Wave 5 WPT - absolutely perfect :) !

This combined with the nice +5.6R on the ES short (DP to DP) made yesterday an absolutely brilliant day.............

Steve

[AlanD]

Steve,

I was going through some old emails from 2005 and stumbled on the reports Tony B. used to put out regarding setups with daily and cummulative returns for the month. One thing I noticed from the charts and posted results using the original MTP software compared with what is being used today is that the winning R values have been getting higher and accuracy of the setups has improved. I know you and your team have done alot of work with the newer versions of MTP but is this actually the case where the newer trading methodology and software is showing improved results over what was available a 2-3 yrs ago? Could increased market (Eminis) volatility be a factor?

Thx,
Alan

[edfash]

the bullish structure is playing out with very strong internals. looking for lows in the vix and new tick highs to confirm a continuation of the trend in the afternoon.

we are currently at the 786 retrace of the 60 min C wave, in a 15 min DP zone, accounting for the stall. 1362.75 fills the gap to the 4/10 close.

great trading for the afternoon session. remember beige book at 2:00ET

[TAS]

Ok, this comes the moment if we should go long, I just close my TS3 ER2 short right at its first profit target since today tends to be a BOTH-SIDES day...

Question here for wave count expert Laurent or Edfesh or other veterans...are U going to reverse or sit through this DP, and if it tends to be a clearer answer if today is SS day...

Thanks for mentoring me:)

TAS

[Larry22]

Ok, this comes the moment if we should go long, I just close my TS3 ER2 short right at its first profit target since today tends to be a BOTH-SIDES day...

Question here for wave count expert Laurent or Edfesh or other veterans...are U going to reverse or sit through this DP, and if it tends to be a clearer answer if today is SS day...

Thanks for mentoring me:)

TAS

Not an easy one, :D

Yes I bought the DP as both the ER2 and ES could have ended their down ABC correction so if the markets wants to climb I think this is the place.

Update: I have now a free trade as my first profit target was reached so the other contracts will cost me nothing if the market goes against me as my stop has been raised to more then break-even as I have bought at 704.

Laurent

[Larry22]

I also forgot to mention that we had a nice stochastic divergence on that trade. ;)


Laurent

[TAS]

as I have bought at 704.

Laurent
:D I Bought back at 704 as well...

I also forgot to mention that we had a nice stochastic divergence on that trade. ;)

Laurent

The divergence was on my charts as well, but this year I have the tendency to trade less following a relative OK profits (at least more than +3R), maybe too conservative in such DP, stoch divergence, ABC correction situation...

Anyway she is away from station, good luck to U with this journey...and take time milk your cow...:D

TAS

[Larry22]

:D I Bought back at 704 as well...



The divergence was on my charts as well, but this year I have the tendency to trade less following a relative OK profits (at least more than +3R), maybe too conservative in such DP, stoch divergence, ABC correction situation...

Anyway she is away from station, good luck to U with this journey...and take time milk your cow...:D

TAS

Good luck to you as I'm now flat as I took the rest of my profits at 707, couldn't let go that profit :D since I will take the afternoon off as the weather is so nice in Montreal (sunny and warm) finally.

I also have to catch my cows in the field so I will have a very busy afternoon.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

As you all know, I like to keep things simple, so here was a nice +5R Profit on the 2min chart form earlier today on the ER2..............

Steve

[TAS]

Sorry , wrong typing above , I mean i am flat by buying back the short position at 704, I didn't mean to go long myself...

Well, I finally see the star in sky, hope the weather turns to be fine tomorrow...

TAS

[Larry22]

Hi Guys

As you all know, I like to keep things simple, so here was a nice +5R Profit on the 2min chart form earlier today on the ER2..............

Steve


Same thing on the 3 min charts with some filters set at false.

Ended up with a very nice profit too, well I really have to go milk my cows now. :D

Laurent

[Steve Griffiths]

Same thing on the 3 min charts with some filters set at false.

Ended up with a very nice profit too, well I really have to go milk my cows now. :D

Laurent

Yep, a nice trade there................

Steve

[AlanD]

Hi Guys

As you all know, I like to keep things simple, so here was a nice +5R Profit on the 2min chart form earlier today on the ER2..............

Steve

Steve,

Regarding utilization of the 2min chart, do you use refer to it after there has been a good run up from previous day. In a recent webinar you refer to consolidation periods where the range is tight after a good run up or down. Do you feel this is a good time to look at 2 min charts as opposed to 3 min charts to capture moves which will in all likelihood be on the tight side?

Alan

[Steve Griffiths]

Steve,

Regarding utilization of the 2min chart, do you use refer to it after there has been a good run up from previous day. In a recent webinar you refer to consolidation periods where the range is tight after a good run up or down. Do you feel this is a good time to look at 2 min charts as opposed to 3 min charts to capture moves which will in all likelihood be on the tight side?

Alan

Hi Alan,

Exactly, this is exactly what unfolded - a narrow range choppy day, because we were "following on" from a wide range day, the day before. Exactly as outlined in Wednesdays "Advanced Strategies" webinar...... so well spotted there......

Actually I spotted this ABC on the 3min chart manually, then used the "Elliott Waves" module (in v6) to confirm the pattern, see below. The target was the DP from the prior main low, because (as you have already spotted) we were only likely to have a narrow range day...

I just did not post this chart at the time, because it did not come up automatically on the 3min chart (I had to do some extra advanced analysis), so I posted the chart that had the automatic analysis on.

I don't like posting advanced analysis because I get so much stick for not just positing automatic set-ups. I find this frustrating because I have so much to teach and show you all how to move above and beyond the automatic set-ups. It is like trying to teach you all to drive, but not being allowed to change out of first gear because so many people only want to drive in first gear.

Perhaps I will have to start an "Advanced Academy" for those of you who do wish to move beyond just the automatic set-ups and use MTPredictor to its full potential....

Steve

[tonis]

Perhaps I will have to start an "Advanced Academy" for those of you who do wish to move beyond just the automatic set-ups and use MTPredictor to its full potential....

Steve

YES PLEASE!

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Alan,

Here is another example of an "Advanced Pattern" that Bruce and myself have been working on............. again, I did not post this at the time, even though it nailed the low of the day on the 5-min ER2 yesterday. Even better than that, this very same pattern generated a massive +12R Profit on the 3min YM on Wednesday. Again I did not show this beautiful advanced trade, because of all the stick I would have got for not just showing the automatic set-ups.

Again, this is so frustrating because there is so much more that can be done with MTPredictor that the vast majority of you have not seen yet.....

Again, perhaps a call for me to start an new "MTPredictor Advanced teaching Academy" once the new V6.0 has been relaesed ?

Steve

[TAS]

I sold ER2 at 723.5, initial stop 1.5 points away...

TAS

[d-day]

I sold ER2 at 723.5, initial stop 1.5 points away...

TAS


Why?

Also there is an open gap back to 2/4 that will need 725.50 to fill it, so your stop may be hit by virtue of being between price and that open gap.

[TAS]

Well , TVGR plus catching-up momemtum push me scratch out with breakeven if market allow...

[d-day]

Well , TVGR plus catching-up momemtum push me scratch out with breakeven if market allow...

722.60 looks like a good place to buy it

[TAS]

Well , TVGR plus catching-up momemtum push me scratch out with breakeven if market allow...

Finally out with nothing to lose. I really can't afford to that -1R :D

Why?

Also there is an open gap back to 2/4 that will need 725.50 to fill it, so your stop may be hit by virtue of being between price and that open gap.

I am a bit agressive in this case, 723.5 is the DP from opening high pivot and that 3rd wave is 0.618 of 1st wave up in 3 min, I would NOT expect too much if ADX still trends below this morning's early peak, actually it was well below the peak while I put sell limit...

It seems to appreach moving average now, see how it goes... anyway spectator mode for me for the rest of day maybe...

Good luck if U have any longs...:)

TAS

[TAS]

Why?

Also there is an open gap back to 2/4 that will need 725.50 to fill it, so your stop may be hit by virtue of being between price and that open gap.

Hi D-day,

Did U mean February 4 gap...? It seems continuous chart has superior advantage over the separate quarterly contract I use...Anyway, I know what U mean... Appreciate U jumping in a hurry to pull me out...:)

TAS

[d-day]

Finally out with nothing to lose. I really can't afford to that -1R :D



I am a bit agressive in this case, 723.5 is the DP from opening high pivot and that 3rd wave is 0.618 of 1st wave up in 3 min, I would NOT expect too much if ADX still trends below this morning's early peak, actually it was well below the peak while I put sell limit...

It seems to appreach moving average now, see how it goes... anyway spectator mode for me for the rest of day maybe...

Good luck if U have any longs...:)

TAS

No matter what time frame I look at ADX has been trending up since this morning. +DMI has not, but that is typical of enormous gaps. ADX looks to be caling for at least one higher high than we have thus far seen. Doesn't mean we'll get it.

[AlanD]

Hi Alan,

Here is another example of an "Advanced Pattern" that Bruce and myself have been working on............. again, I did not post this at the time, even though it nailed the low of the day on the 5-min ER2 yesterday. Even better than that, this very same pattern generated a massive +12R Profit on the 3min YM on Wednesday. Again I did not show this beautiful advanced trade, because of all the stick I would have got for not just showing the automatic set-ups.

Again, this is so frustrating because there is so much more that can be done with MTPredictor that the vast majority of you have not seen yet.....

Again, perhaps a call for me to start an new "MTPredictor Advanced teaching Academy" once the new V6.0 has been relaesed ?

Steve


Well Steve this is all great stuff. I've been following your teams teachings for several years now and find myself learning something new each time. I think the idea of an Advanced teaching academy as being a brilliant idea! In some ways you do that already via the webinars you and your team provide. I am currently in Iraq so making the webinars live is somewhat of a challenge but I do appreciate being able to review them as recordings at my own convenience.

Alan

[edfash]

A nice short trade on a trend day up. The blue rectangle represents the DP zone on the 60 min chart off the 4/7 high.

[d-day]

A nice short trade on a trend day up. The blue rectangle represents the DP zone on the 60 min chart off the 4/7 high.


Well played, edfash. I didn't get short until 2:45ish at 1394.25. For everytime a counter-trend day trade like that works out for me I probably get my head handed to me 20 times, so I don't do the trend day DP's.

Of course, I have not yet learned to read the road map as well you do - but maybe some day I'll get it.

Thank you for sharing with us.

I wish all a wonderful weekend,

d-day

David

[TreeShaker]

Hi Treeshaker,

After re-installing SP1 for Microsoft .NET framework 2.0, I am now OK with NINJA 6.5, and I have no data feed issue before... NT support did show their efficiency to sort me out...

Hope U are well...\

TAS

Hi TAS, I have been battling NT for 2 days now, or is that 3. I was told that SP1 for 2.0 was incompatible with NT 6.5 and they had me take it out, never to be again. LOL You put it back in and it works?

It would be neat if I could get NT to work for more than a day.

[Larry22]

Hi TAS, I have been battling NT for 2 days now, or is that 3. I was told that SP1 for 2.0 was incompatible with NT 6.5 and they had me take it out, never to be again. LOL You put it back in and it works?

It would be neat if I could get NT to work for more than a day.

Why don't you install SP2, that's what I have and I don't hav any problems with it.

[Larry22]

A nice short trade on a trend day up. The blue rectangle represents the DP zone on the 60 min chart off the 4/7 high.

Great trade there edfash, I did sell too but the ER2 instead as I was able to sell twice on the way down.

I won't complain as I also had time to go outside enjoy the weather (sunny and warm again) and milk my cows. :D


Laurent

[TAS]

Hi TAS, I have been battling NT for 2 days now, or is that 3. I was told that SP1 for 2.0 was incompatible with NT 6.5 and they had me take it out, never to be again. LOL You put it back in and it works?

It would be neat if I could get NT to work for more than a day.

It did work for me but I might take time to upgrade to SP2 as well as what Laurent did. Improved security approach (available now:) ) is always better...

Good luck

TAS

[Larry22]

It did work for me but I might take time to upgrade to SP2 as well as what Laurent did. Improved security approach (available now:) ) is always better...

Good luck

TAS

Sorry for the confusion as I tought you were referring about XP and not framework as I don't even know which version I have.

There is an old say that states when everything works fine don't change anything.

That's what I do I don't mess with anything as I don't really want to have unpleasant surprises. ;)

Laurent

[TAS]

Hi Laurent,

I was referring to .Net framework 2.0 SP2, right now I am with its SP1.

You are absolutely right, I might be cautious in doing this.

Thanks anyway.

TAS

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Everybody is quiet today............... are more of you out milking cows ?

Anyway, here is a nice DP sell that I hope some of you caught for a nice +3R Profit ?

Steve

[Larry22]

Hi Guys

Everybody is quiet today............... are more of you out milking cows ?

Anyway, here is a nice DP sell that I hope some of you caught for a nice +3R Profit ?

Steve

Done that as it was also an ABC and the 38% retracement from friday's top, took my profits and reverse at 714.5 as it was a DP from the low of wave 1A down on the 15 min chart for a potential ABC.

BTW I also had time to milk my cows :D so a good trading day for me.


Laurent

[edfash]

trade of the day

[Larry22]

trade of the day

You sure did beat me on this one. :o

:eek: Oh I don't follow it. :D


Great trade edfash.

[jswin]

Hi Alan,

Here is another example of an "Advanced Pattern" that Bruce and myself have been working on............. again, I did not post this at the time, even though it nailed the low of the day on the 5-min ER2 yesterday. Even better than that, this very same pattern generated a massive +12R Profit on the 3min YM on Wednesday. Again I did not show this beautiful advanced trade, because of all the stick I would have got for not just showing the automatic set-ups.

Again, this is so frustrating because there is so much more that can be done with MTPredictor that the vast majority of you have not seen yet.....

Again, perhaps a call for me to start an new "MTPredictor Advanced teaching Academy" once the new V6.0 has been relaesed ?



Steve

Sign me up - to both v6 and your advanced academy :)

[grose]

Hi Alan,

Exactly, this is exactly what unfolded - a narrow range choppy day, because we were "following on" from a wide range day, the day before. Exactly as outlined in Wednesdays "Advanced Strategies" webinar...... so well spotted there......

Actually I spotted this ABC on the 3min chart manually, then used the "Elliott Waves" module (in v6) to confirm the pattern, see below. The target was the DP from the prior main low, because (as you have already spotted) we were only likely to have a narrow range day...

I just did not post this chart at the time, because it did not come up automatically on the 3min chart (I had to do some extra advanced analysis), so I posted the chart that had the automatic analysis on.

I don't like posting advanced analysis because I get so much stick for not just positing automatic set-ups. I find this frustrating because I have so much to teach and show you all how to move above and beyond the automatic set-ups. It is like trying to teach you all to drive, but not being allowed to change out of first gear because so many people only want to drive in first gear.

Perhaps I will have to start an "Advanced Academy" for those of you who do wish to move beyond just the automatic set-ups and use MTPredictor to its full potential....

Steve

Hi Steve,

Yes, Advanced Academy sounds like a great idea. I'm sure everyone appreciates your having made your "commitment" to it :)

Speaking of v6, what is the eta -- I hope you will not hold it until it is "perfect" or has everything you want to do with it -- especially data-oriented -- rather, it's always possible to release incremental improvements. The core looks terriffic as much as one can gather from the posts and screen shots.

Gordon

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Gordon,

Yes that is exactly what I will be doing, after the "initial release" of MTP v6.0, we will be adding to it over the coming months. As you say, the first release will not be totally complete, we will release incremental improvements over the coming months,

As far as an eta, this week we are looking at getting fully real-time data (from eSignal to start with) into the product. Once I know (later this week) whether that is possible, I will be in a better position to know how much there is left to do before I can get it to a few Beta testers....

It is amazing how much time, money and effort, goes into developing a completely new product from the ground up ! Our new programmer (for v6) has done a brilliant job, and will be making v6 better as we make improvements as time goes on......

So please be patience, there is no release date yet (so please do not ask us), we are not there yet, but getting close. Once I know how much there is left to do before the initial release I will let you all know a release date and upgrade prices.

Steve

[Russell Stagg]

Hey why wait.

New forum section entitled as above and then nobody can complain that it's not a standard setup ( can they :rolleyes: ).

I for one would love it - not being an advanced user myself.

[edfash]

price action on heavy volume was an open drive pattern from the opening price (market profile terminology to describe the auction off the opening price). the open is currently the hod in the russ, and within a few ticks in the es.
the 3200 tick chart formed a small 5 wave sequence into the DP zone off yest lod. this zone was far short of any projections off waves 1 and 3, where a 1:1 relationship would have taken price to 74.5 or so. price did react up off the DP, but only to a .786 retrace of the 4th wave.
much nicer when the market is telling the same story no matter how you look at it.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

A nice decline (so far) off yesterdays Wave C high on the 15min ES (I presume you all checked your larger degree charts this morning for patterns ?)

The question now is whether the current, typical Wave C WPT, support will hold. If not, then we will have a Wave 3 type decline......

Steve

[TAS]

Hi Steve,

Agreed with short side view and opening down gap reinforce the bias, but this is just to keep us from going wrong on the long side, anyone got any short time frame MTP or non-MTP, minute or tick sell signal so far today?

I don't have tick data feed, but I can feel a possible TS3 on (maybe) 89 tick ER2 during its first swing up this morning, anyone short that swing high?

TAS


Hi Guys

A nice decline (so far) off yesterdays Wave C high on the 15min ES (I presume you all checked your larger degree charts this morning for patterns ?)

The question now is whether the current, typical Wave C WPT, support will hold. If not, then we will have a Wave 3 type decline......

Steve

[Larry22]

Hi Steve,

Agreed with short side view and opening down gap reinforce the bias, but this is just to keep us from going wrong on the long side, anyone got any short time frame MTP or non-MTP, minute or tick sell signal so far today?

I don't have tick data feed, but I can feel a possible TS3 on (maybe) 89 tick ER2 during its first swing up this morning, anyone short that swing high?

T