US Markets: Real-time Trading

[jjc]

Hi, in testing MTP performed very well using 6-range bars on the ER2. I recently tested the same on the Emini S&P Midcap 400, assuming it might take on a lot of the Russell's volume soon, but the results were very poor indeed. At 2% risk my hypothetical account drew down around 50% within a month or so. So, I think some experimentation to match the right range with the right instrument is important.
Joel


ty jswin

how about tests on the es? ive been testing a few things using a range of 2 without much success

there was a fellow mtp trader who would post here using range bars on the es and i was hoping he would come back on and give us his stats - cant remember who he was

j

[d-day]

question for the group

who is that fellow trader who used range bars with mtp?

I think you are referring to tombtrader ... he's been awol for quite a while now methinks.

[jjc]

I think you are referring to tombtrader ... he's been awol for quite a while now methinks.

thank you d-day for that info about tomtrader

oh, and btw, good call that mtp nailed the upper range and lower range on friday?

i owe you one :)


you have a great weekend , ya hear !

j

[richbois]

Not a bad start for the first report on the DAX

[tonis]

Very quiet these days, wow, less than 1 message a day...

[d-day]

Very quiet these days, wow, less than 1 message a day...

Typical summer ... now that School's back in session and vacations are over, I'm sure activity will pick up.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Very quiet today, so here is my "advanced" take so far.......... yes this ABC was "against" a blue STF, but, it did look a very good ABC ;)

Steve

[edfash]

patience pays off with a sweet automatic signal

[edfash]

reached DP support on 15 min chart

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Edflash,

Yep, a brilliant trade there............. and totally automatic, so no excuse for anybody missing that one :)

Steve

[edfash]

es making 5th wave down from highs

[edfash]

responded to the wave 5=wave 1 (red), when this broke trying to find support at the wave 5=1.382 wave 1 (magenta). this also coincides with higher dp support

[richbois]

That is an other good day for TTT and MTP. ES reversed on both High and Low DP and right on the TTT numbers

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Always be careful with Wave 5's, see attached, as they do have a nasty habit of overrunning targets.

I always like to see good divergence and other reason for a top or bottom when looking for a Wave 5..........

So caution is always advised with wave 5's

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

It looks like the eventual low came in at the combination of the DP and the maximum Wave 5 WPT..........

Steve

[tonis]

Would you say yesterday was one of the 5% exceptions to the Gap Rule???

[d-day]

Would you say yesterday was one of the 5% exceptions to the Gap Rule???

I imagine, strictly speaking, yesterday was indeed one of those days during which a gap was not filled within the first 15 minutes of trading and yet failed to produce a close in the direction of the gap. However, in my experience I have found that one may expect the exception to occur when 1) TTT cycle expectations have been fulfilled setting the odds for a counter-gap move and 2) where the market opens at or near an important DP. Yesterday was a Short Sale day, and as such the plan would be to expect a rally to fail at, near, or slightly above a prior important high. Lo and behold, a 15 minute DP projected from the 8/28 high acted as a magnet to attract the pre-market short-squeeze action. We thus had a gap where price fulfilled the conditions for a TTT Short Sale and we had a trigger set-up - the opening DP trade.

I visited Rich's TTT forum yesterday, and I read many many posts from TTT users (other than Rich), most all of which seem to miss the true character of the TTT method. TTT provides the trader with an approach to gauging the odds of price action subsequent to encounters with recent support/resistance. TTT is not itself a "trigger" or a "set-up". The value of TTT (and this, to me, makes it invaluable) is that it tells the trader which set-ups to favor on a particular day. Yesterday, for example, given that TTT was on Short Sale day, I would have been looking for long set-ups (using MTP) if the market opened flat to lower, as I would have been expecting a rally to fulfill the SS day requirement. Since the market opened higher, and was trading within whisper distance of a 15 minute DP, I would have been ready with a sell limit to go short at the upper boundary of that DP.

Likewise, the Trader Vic Gap Rule is not, in and of itself, a "set-up." It is an observation that helps the trader determine the odds of price action's direction subsequent to a gap opening. The set-up will come from MTP (or any other technical set-up a trader uses). One must distinguish between "Macro-level Odds," e.g. TTT, TVGR and "micro-level trading", e.g. TS1-4's, DP's etc. that enable you to take advantage of the favorable odds, which is to say, look for MTP set-ups that enable you to exploit the edge TTT and TVGR give you.

As one additional note to yesterday's action and the TVGR, if economic data is scheduled to be released post-open (typically at 10 AM EST or 10:30 EST) then the "real open" from which to start the gap-fill countdown is the release time, not the 9:30 opening bell.


I have attached the 15 minute ES chart which shows the DP of which I wrote above. The 15 minute ES with MTP is a money maker, pure and simple. If you never again looked at another 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, or micro-tick chart of the ES, you could make an excellent living trading just the 15 minute chart using TTT and TVGR for the Odds and MTP and basic trendline/divergence analysis to get you into the market and manage your trades. Personally, I cannot imagine why anyone would not use MTP and Rich's eBook to day trade the mini's, unless it is that one does not want to put in the time to study and learn MTP and TTT inside out.

Best Wishes,

d-day

[Eddo]

I imagine, strictly speaking, yesterday was indeed one of those days during which a gap was not filled within the first 15 minutes of trading and yet failed to produce a close in the direction of the gap. However, in my experience I have found that one may expect the exception to occur when 1) TTT cycle expectations have been fulfilled setting the odds for a counter-gap move and 2) where the market opens at or near an important DP. Yesterday was a Short Sale day, and as such the plan would be to expect a rally to fail at, near, or slightly above a prior important high. Lo and behold, a 15 minute DP projected from the 8/28 high acted as a magnet to attract the pre-market short-squeeze action. We thus had a gap where price fulfilled the conditions for a TTT Short Sale and we had a trigger set-up - the opening DP trade.

I visited Rich's TTT forum yesterday, and I read many many posts from TTT users (other than Rich), most all of which seem to miss the true character of the TTT method. TTT provides the trader with an approach to gauging the odds of price action subsequent to encounters with recent support/resistance. TTT is not itself a "trigger" or a "set-up". The value of TTT (and this, to me, makes it invaluable) is that it tells the trader which set-ups to favor on a particular day. Yesterday, for example, given that TTT was on Short Sale day, I would have been looking for long set-ups (using MTP) if the market opened flat to lower, as I would have been expecting a rally to fulfill the SS day requirement. Since the market opened higher, and was trading within whisper distance of a 15 minute DP, I would have been ready with a sell limit to go short at the upper boundary of that DP.

Likewise, the Trader Vic Gap Rule is not, in and of itself, a "set-up." It is an observation that helps the trader determine the odds of price action's direction subsequent to a gap opening. The set-up will come from MTP (or any other technical set-up a trader uses). One must distinguish between "Macro-level Odds," e.g. TTT, TVGR and "micro-level trading", e.g. TS1-4's, DP's etc. that enable you to take advantage of the favorable odds, which is to say, look for MTP set-ups that enable you to exploit the edge TTT and TVGR give you.

As one additional note to yesterday's action and the TVGR, if economic data is scheduled to be released post-open (typically at 10 AM EST or 10:30 EST) then the "real open" from which to start the gap-fill countdown is the release time, not the 9:30 opening bell.


I have attached the 15 minute ES chart which shows the DP of which I wrote above. The 15 minute ES with MTP is a money maker, pure and simple. If you never again looked at another 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, or micro-tick chart of the ES, you could make an excellent living trading just the 15 minute chart using TTT and TVGR for the Odds and MTP and basic trendline/divergence analysis to get you into the market and manage your trades. Personally, I cannot imagine why anyone would not use MTP and Rich's eBook to day trade the mini's, unless it is that one does not want to put in the time to study and learn MTP and TTT inside out.

Best Wishes,

d-day

Hi David

I couldn't agree with you more - and isn't it uncanny how many times the TTT caluclated levels fall within a wisker of the 15 DP's -

best wishes Chris

[kbandtheriptides]

D-day,
Much thanks for your in depth post,
I did catch that 15 min DP yesterday as it unfolded too.
thanks,
KB

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

I hope you all caught the TS4 sell on the 3min ES ?

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Not only the ES........

The YM and +2.4R Profit from the DP earlier, then another +5.6R Profit on the TS4 sell........... :)

Steve

PS. I am using a Beta version of the RT add-ons that goes back to the old DP logic from build 28.... This is the DP logic most of you have said you prefer

[edfash]

nice long at higer degree support followed by a TS4 short on either YM or ES

[Eddo]

Not only the ES........

The YM and +2.4R Profit from the DP earlier, then another +5.6R Profit on the TS4 sell........... :)

Steve

PS. I am using a Beta version of the RT add-ons that goes back to the old DP logic from build 28.... This is the DP logic most of you have said you prefer

Hi Steve,

My eSignal efs didn't give me a TS4 it gave me a TS2 - is that because you are using a different version and if so how do I get that one?

Many thanks - chris

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Eddo

Are you sure that was not a "major" TS2....... ? rather than an Intermediate TS4 ?

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Eddo

Are you sure that was not a "major" TS2....... ? rather than an Intermediate TS4 ?

Steve

Da ! just taken a look a the MTP efs and yes the Major setup box had been ticked (which I hadn't realised) .......... so not only was this a Int TS4, but it was also a Major TS2 .......... :)

Many thanks

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Somebody has been complaining to me that I do not show losing trades.............. so here is on on the YM

But as usual this was kept small at -1R, much smaller than the +2.4R and +5.6R Profits form earlier....

So yes, losses will happen, this is part of trading, but the trick is keeping them small

I hope that helps readdress the balance and keep everybody happy :)

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Everybody

Somebody has been complaining to me that I do not show losing trades.............. so here is on on the YM

But as usual this was kept small at -1R, much smaller than the +2.4R and +5.6R Profits form earlier....

So yes, losses will happen, this is part of trading, but the trick is keeping them small

I hope that helps readdress the balance and keep everybody happy :)

Steve

'cor blimey will they never learn !!!

That somebody needs to get it into their head that with only 40% winners and 60% losers they are still going to make money if they 'listen, learn and apply' your teachings ............ 'and the Lord said

Let there be light

....... and there was light

............ and you could see for bloody Miles !!! :)

Keep up the good work Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

'cor blimey will they never learn !!!

That somebody needs to get it into their head that with only 40% winners and 60% losers they are still going to make money if they 'listen, learn and apply' your teachings ............ 'and the Lord said

Let there be light

....... and there was light

............ and you could see for bloody Miles !!! :)

Keep up the good work Steve

Yep I wish I had 2c for every time we get somebody who is more interested in a high % of winner and being "right"............. I guess that is why 97% of amateurs are losers and there are only a few professionals like you (and a few others on the Forum - you all know who you are ;) )who actually "get it" and as such are busy making all the $$$'s while everybody else is running around woring about the % of winners

Steve

[Mrkooks]

Gentlemen & Lady,

For those using Ninja to day trade, have any among you been successful in using the data feed from Interactive Brokers to Ninja to excute market trades using the Ninja capabilty to place trades right on the chart instead of going to IB's TWS system?

And Steve, if you had 2c for evertime you encoutered someone looking for a high % of winners, we would not be the beneficiary of such a great trading system. You would now be fully retired!

[tonis]

Gentlemen & Lady,

For those using Ninja to day trade, have any among you been successful in using the data feed from Interactive Brokers to Ninja to excute market trades using the Ninja capabilty to place trades right on the chart instead of going to IB's TWS system?


I am interested in such experiences too! I am tired of entering trades by hand and want to exploit NT's strategies to the full.

Thanks

[Steve Griffiths]

I am interested in such experiences too! I am tired of entering trades by hand and want to exploit NT's strategies to the full.

Thanks

Hi Guys

From the feedback we have had here if you use the IB feed directly then you will get "historical time outs". IB do this to lower strain on their servers for data history. Bassically, IB are a Broker and not a data vendor.

So the best solution is to power the NinjaTrader charts with eSignal, then have a second connection into IB to place the trades. In this way you use eSignal for the data and still can place trades from the Ninja charts into IB.

Please contact NinjaTrader directly for how to so this

I hope this helps ?

Steve

[tonis]

I have been using IB as data feed provider and I can say that I have been let down many more times by my internet provider than by IB.

The number of times my data feed has been down is less than 5. For me, excellent quality.

However, I would like experiences on their direct access trading capability. Is anyone using it?

[Mrbaffalo]

Best datafeed I have ever tested is zen-fire, integrated in NT.
if you want to test it go to mirus futures homepage and start a ninja-zenfire demo.

It's an unfiltered datafeed, much more better than esignal (which is my second best solution).

MB

[rokster]

Best datafeed I have ever tested is zen-fire, integrated in NT.
if you want to test it go to mirus futures homepage and start a ninja-zenfire demo.

It's an unfiltered datafeed, much more better than esignal (which is my second best solution).

MB

I second that... can't fault Ninja+ZenFire :)

[jojab]

However, I would like experiences on their direct access trading capability. Is anyone using it?

Yes, I enter my trades right off the charts themselves in Ninja. It is a logical solution. Although I use Mirus/Zenfire now, I have used IB in the past and it works great.

[kbandtheriptides]

Tough day on the challenging changing chess board today..
seems like they (markets) went with TVGR today as opposed to yesterday.
many 1 R losses.. so far..
TTT/Rich said the sell day is the confusing day..
Rich gets that right a lot...
I wonder how it turns out over time to sit out (or not) on TTT sell days for MTP traders?
These days seem to churn losses..?
any input from the "old" pros here ?
Still learning lots from you guys..
thanks,
KB

[Eddo]

Tough day on the challenging changing chess board today..
seems like they (markets) went with TVGR today as opposed to yesterday.
many 1 R losses.. so far..
TTT/Rich said the sell day is the confusing day..
Rich gets that right a lot...
I wonder how it turns out over time to sit out (or not) on TTT sell days for MTP traders?
These days seem to churn losses..?
any input from the "old" pros here ?
Still learning lots from you guys..
thanks,
KB

Yes ............ I suggest Golf for the SD ......... even the TTT projected low has been blown away on this one and with the Non Farms coming out tomorrow, perhapse a two day Golf vacation might be a good idea :)

[richbois]

EDDO does remember the early days of TTT when we called it the Golf day

1252 provided some support but gave way to Tiger Woods

[Eddo]

EDDO does remember the early days of TTT when we called it the Golf day

1242 provided some support but gave way to Tiger Woods

:) lol Richard ............ but either I can't read or you have a typo ...... I was looking at 1252 ?

[TreeShaker]

The ER low got blown away also, but I think we finally got a bottom. Anyhow, I am long and have a b/e trade but would like some cash. :)

[Eddo]

The ER low got blown away also, but I think we finally got a bottom. Anyhow, I am long and have a b/e trade but would like some cash. :)

I think this might be what the CNBC people call a Capitulation ............. sit back and wonder ......... this is no place for me at the moment

Good luck to all

Chris

[kbandtheriptides]

Yes ............ I suggest Golf for the SD ......... even the TTT projected low has been blown away on this one and with the Non Farms coming out tomorrow, perhapse a two day Golf vacation might be a good idea :)

Not much of a golfer.. unless putt-putt counts..
I do play my axe (that's a guitar in musicians lingo) at times while watching the charts..
going wreck diving out on the great lakes this weekend if the wind and the waves co-operate.. no golf..that's to gentile of a sport ?
just kiddin' I've seen much violence directed at golf clubs, balls and turf..
later,
KB

[TreeShaker]

The ER low got blown away also, but I think we finally got a bottom. Anyhow, I am long and have a b/e trade but would like some cash. :)

Didn't get that cash :( but it was b/e. Thought I would try again because it is just a few ticks off the support of 715.5, which was the low of 8/26

[teflon]

Bottoms take longer to form than tops?

[kbandtheriptides]

Bottoms take longer to form than tops?

DP / high volume spikes can form on 2 bars in anytime frame ..
so watch for that..
Steve has a good video webinar on that..
KB

[edfash]

my only suggetsion is this:

the market has been in a coil afetr giving a daily TS3 sell signal. this can be seen in a coiling of price or a low ADX reading in higher time frames (ie. 135 min). the market gapped down and then never filled the gap (retraced to the 5 min 20ema which was the sale of the day after new momentum lows-obviously not an mtp setup). since then everything has been screaming trend day. look at the intraday vix (which for some time now has been an exquisite intraday indicator-i use a 15 min line chart), also look at another terrific intraday indicator- $vold- the difference between up volume and down volume-i use a 30 min bar chart-every 30 min bar has made a lower low so far all day. when the market is saying trend down forget about countertrend dp trades on 3 or 5 min charts. these will get crushed, the lilkihood of getting lucky to pick the right bar is slim, if a short term dp coincides with a larger time frame dp that is different. the challenge of a day like today where there are no corrective abc's and every retrecement has been shallow is getting in. i hope this helps.

[edfash]

i also forgot to mention, insist on a climax in volumre as a criteria for any dp reversal trade on days like these. i wanted to post the daily chart as well. since that early touch of the 5 min 20ema we have not done so all day, that is very unusual even on a trend day.

[rokster]

i also forgot to mention, insist on a climax in volumre as a criteria for any dp reversal trade on days like these. i wanted to post the daily chart as well. since that early touch of the 5 min 20ema we have not done so all day, that is very unusual even on a trend day.

Hi edfast,

Any chance of posting a bigger chart ? I'd love to try and make sense of what you're saying !

Thanks in advance
Rokster

[edfash]

sorry for the small size. not sure how to make these esignal charts larger

[edfash]

lets see if patience rewards us

[TreeShaker]

I hope you took some quick profit on your short Edfash. Following Richard's plan for Taylor I went long this morning for a small profit, stopped out on the first pull back. The problem being that I got in too soon twice before the climb. :(

The market isn't really cooperating with Taylor very much. It went lower than the projected low and I don't think it will reach yesterday's B low. Richard if you are monitoring, any comment re: Taylor?

[Eddo]

I hope you took some quick profit on your short Edfash. Following Richard's plan for Taylor I went long this morning for a small profit, stopped out on the first pull back. The problem being that I got in too soon twice before the climb. :(

The market isn't really cooperating with Taylor very much. It went lower than the projected low and I don't think it will reach yesterday's B low. Richard if you are monitoring, any comment re: Taylor?

Sorry about your losses TreeS ,,,,,,,,,,,, I've been sitting here all day waiting for some sort of MTP sig to get me in (long or short) but I had nothing on the ES which is my chosen market. My wife thinks I am mad - I quote 'you mean you have spent all day just sitting looking at the screen' - but yes I have - nothing I could see to get me in sadly. I saw from the TTT forum that DavidD got in short around the bottom - would luv to know what got him in but whatever it was ......... well done David

But dispite the comments from the 'top of the house' my powder is still dry for the day and I still have my money in the bank - :) which is more than I can say for yesterday when I lost a pile by blindly going long when the ES hit the TTT low for the day - as we all know TTT is not a trading siginal - its an average .......... for me lesson learnt and today I sat and watched

Have a good weekend all - Chris

[jands]

Sorry about your losses TreeS ,,,,,,,,,,,, I've been sitting here all day waiting for some sort of MTP sig to get me in (long or short) but I had nothing on the ES which is my chosen market. My wife thinks I am mad - I quote 'you mean you have spent all day just sitting looking at the screen' - but yes I have - nothing I could see to get me in sadly. I saw from the TTT forum that DavidD got in short around the bottom - would luv to know what got him in but whatever it was ......... well done David

But dispite the comments from the 'top of the house' my powder is still dry for the day and I still have my money in the bank - :) which is more than I can say for yesterday when I lost a pile by blindly going long when the ES hit the TTT low for the day - as we all know TTT is not a trading siginal - its an average .......... for me lesson learnt and today I sat and watched

Have a good weekend all - Chris

I just gave my wife some lip and she told me "turn back around and look at your computer!"

Oh well,

Have a good weekend all,

Jim

[TreeShaker]

It seemed like a pretty tough day to trade. I am in a last minute ER DP on 3 min. It is 1.3 point profit so far, doesn't seem to want to go to target.

[d-day]

Sorry about your losses TreeS ,,,,,,,,,,,, I've been sitting here all day waiting for some sort of MTP sig to get me in (long or short) but I had nothing on the ES which is my chosen market. My wife thinks I am mad - I quote 'you mean you have spent all day just sitting looking at the screen' - but yes I have - nothing I could see to get me in sadly. I saw from the TTT forum that DavidD got in short around the bottom - would luv to know what got him in but whatever it was ......... well done David

But dispite the comments from the 'top of the house' my powder is still dry for the day and I still have my money in the bank - :) which is more than I can say for yesterday when I lost a pile by blindly going long when the ES hit the TTT low for the day - as we all know TTT is not a trading siginal - its an average .......... for me lesson learnt and today I sat and watched

Have a good weekend all - Chris

Hi Chris,

TTT had me looking for a rally from a lower low than yesterday's low due to the Buy Day low violation etc etc. So, from the get go, I was looking for longs.

I went long twice today - once in the premarket, and I made +10 points on 1/2 and -2 points on the second 1/2 of that position. I then went long at 1217.50 and made +10 points on 1/2 and + 24.50 points on the second half, for a +10.75 point per contract traded profit.

I used manual MTP DPs on the 15 minute 25 hour globex chart for both trades. These were manual trades with oscillator divergence. I use my own version of an particular oscillator, so I don't know whether STF had divergence or not.

The first chart shows the first trade, the second chart shows the second trade. Obviously, my targets, derived from TTT and structural and fibonacci support and resistance, were never met.

A word about the 15 minute charts and DP's: I have been using 15 minute charts since May because I am unable to sit in front of the computer screen most days. The 15 minute charts can be checked in the morning for DP zones, and I can have IB or e-sig alerts emailed to me for when price gets close to a DP. Then, I can open my wireless laptop and check for a trade. If there is one, I can take it and place my stop, and go back to my other business, knowing that most of the time the 15 minute set-ups will develop slowly, and may even have me holding overnight. For anyone who wishes to daytrade, but also has a day job, you may find the MTP DP with TTT trading bias a way to participate in the markets without having to screen stare all day long.

Best Wishes,

d-day

[d-day]

The market isn't really cooperating with Taylor very much. It went lower than the projected low and I don't think it will reach yesterday's B low. Richard if you are monitoring, any comment re: Taylor?

I'm not Richard, but I thought that the market conformed perfectly with TTT today, and I feel it does so more often than not. When folks find difficulty applying Taylor to their trading, including myself, the reason is most likely operator error ;).

Have heart, Lumberjack, you are a hard worker and you are dedicated to your work - it will come to you eventually. It is tough, very tough, and do not lose faith in yourself or your tools when things do not work out the way we'd like for them to.

Best Wishes,

d-day

[richbois]

I hope you took some quick profit on your short Edfash. Following Richard's plan for Taylor I went long this morning for a small profit, stopped out on the first pull back. The problem being that I got in too soon twice before the climb. :(

The market isn't really cooperating with Taylor very much. It went lower than the projected low and I don't think it will reach yesterday's B low. Richard if you are monitoring, any comment re: Taylor?


I followed my own advice also and got stopped twice but 3rd time was a charm.

I think David explained the rest as well or better then I would so I will leave it at that

Sorry for not getting back to you sooner but was busy with trades and the other forum.

Have a great weekend

[TreeShaker]

I'm not Richard, but I thought that the market conformed perfectly with TTT today, and I feel it does so more often than not. When folks find difficulty applying Taylor to their trading, including myself, the reason is most likely operator error ;).

Have heart, Lumberjack, you are a hard worker and you are dedicated to your work - it will come to you eventually. It is tough, very tough, and do not lose faith in yourself or your tools when things do not work out the way we'd like for them to.

Best Wishes,

d-day

Thank you for your kind words David.

[Eddo]

Hi Chris,

TTT had me looking for a rally from a lower low than yesterday's low due to the Buy Day low violation etc etc. So, from the get go, I was looking for longs.

I went long twice today - once in the premarket, and I made +10 points on 1/2 and -2 points on the second 1/2 of that position. I then went long at 1217.50 and made +10 points on 1/2 and + 24.50 points on the second half, for a +10.75 point per contract traded profit.

I used manual MTP DPs on the 15 minute 25 hour globex chart for both trades. These were manual trades with oscillator divergence. I use my own version of an particular oscillator, so I don't know whether STF had divergence or not.

The first chart shows the first trade, the second chart shows the second trade. Obviously, my targets, derived from TTT and structural and fibonacci support and resistance, were never met.

A word about the 15 minute charts and DP's: I have been using 15 minute charts since May because I am unable to sit in front of the computer screen most days. The 15 minute charts can be checked in the morning for DP zones, and I can have IB or e-sig alerts emailed to me for when price gets close to a DP. Then, I can open my wireless laptop and check for a trade. If there is one, I can take it and place my stop, and go back to my other business, knowing that most of the time the 15 minute set-ups will develop slowly, and may even have me holding overnight. For anyone who wishes to daytrade, but also has a day job, you may find the MTP DP with TTT trading bias a way to participate in the markets without having to screen stare all day long.

Best Wishes,

d-day


Hey David, wise words indeed

I was looking to go long all day but unlike you I just couldn't 'see' the setup clear enough to jump. I wasn't working on the 24 hr so that might have had something to do with it but form me I couldn't get the manual DP and div to line up so I just sat it out.

Two great trades for you though - and your words re setting alarms to alert to an approaching 15 min DP were an inspiration :) why didn't I think of that?

Chris

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

I agree with David, always a good idea to keep an eye on the larger degree DP's.

Please see below, where even the Daily S&P Chart had reached DP support, so at least a minor bounce should have been anticipated

Thanks

Steve

[hodger]

Doesn't get much nicer than this DP on 15 and 30 min and nice 3 min TS3 short.

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep..........

nice one on the NQ as well :)

Steve

[edfash]

market reversed on a 5 wave sequence where wave 5=wave 1, this coincided with fri high price and a a dp zone off the prior swing down.

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep..........

nice one on the NQ as well :)

Steve

Ended up as a +5.9R trade.............. nice :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

So far today..........

With an "advanced" eye on the Elliott Wave patterns (click on the chart to enlarge it)

Steve

PS. MTP V6.0 is not real-time (yet), I feed it with the eSignal MTPdata1.efs each time a bar closes

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

I don't normally look at the 24hr but I thought it was interesting how the Wave 5 high on my chart above was also at DP resistance on the 24hr chart .................

(click on chart to enlarge)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

The chart says it all............... another nice trade on the NQ :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

wow........

And the profit target was the perfect to bank the profits ;)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

And the advanced traders amoung you :)

Steve

[teflon]

Steve....I got the DP NQ buy on the chart but got no alert on the esignal...is that normal
thanks

[Steve Griffiths]

If the esignal chart was "open" at the time, the alert would have gone off

Thanks

Steve

[teflon]

Yes....it was open and the alert did not sound or print....

[Steve Griffiths]

see attachec

The aleart was at 12:17:59 EST

Steve

[edfash]

really nice setup on the 5 min charts supported by the 15 min time frame. the 15 min made new momentum lows in the morning on the low price. a sell would be anticipated on a retracement to the 20ema in that time frame. the 5 min chart traced an ABC retracement and gave automatic TS3 sells in the ES and YM. the trade never stopped out, the triangle was made an equal high. hope everyone caught that trade and is still short (the trade has been profitable by more than 20 points).

[richbois]

Today was a Sell day. We tested Yesterday's highs during the overnight session , and failed to take it out. We also had a 57% chance of making a lower low. This was achieve and it took 3 tests to finally get through and ES and ER2/AB made it to the TTT projected lows. These projected lows and highs do offer resistance and support. As we saw 1233 area offered support and even a bounce from there only to be taken out later.

Attached is a copy of the excel report sent last night updated on the right with today's actual numbers.

Tomorrow is the SellShort day and we have 84-86% chance of getting above 1246.75. Being still in a bear market, and close to the July lows,lets see if we succeed getting a positive 3 day rally.

[Mrkooks]

Gentlemen & Lady,

For those using Ninja to day trade, have any among you been successful in using the data feed from Interactive Brokers to Ninja to excute market trades using the Ninja capabilty to place trades right on the chart instead of going to IB's TWS system?

And Steve, if you had 2c for evertime you encoutered someone looking for a high % of winners, we would not be the beneficiary of such a great trading system. You would now be fully retired!


Had occasion to set up this feed with my account at IB. The tech guys there were very helpful with phone support and took no time to set up at all.

Ninja Trader do not accept calls even if you ask them to dial your 800 number. Spent more time trying to decipher that which I was barely able to understand than my phone call to IB

Hats off to IB.

I will report any problems in using RT with the chart capabilities thru my IB account.

[edfash]

NQ never confirmed trade below yest low when the es, er, and ym did. nice looking TS3 buy hit profit target.

[edfash]

another nice winner in the NQ. looking for higher prices with the atr stop.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Don't forget for the US eminis:

Futures-Stock Index contracts roll to December 2008 Thursday morning at 8:30 am CST.

Thats today ;)

Steve

[edfash]

does anyone know what symbol will be used in esignal? thanks.

[teflon]

They changed trading times, margin and other things.....most brokers still without data feed hookup...not many platforms to trade on....volume could be very light til all systems are go......

[jands]

They changed trading times, margin and other things.....most brokers still without data feed hookup...not many platforms to trade on....volume could be very light til all systems are go......

Volume is still higher on ER2U08 than the Russell 2000 Dec ICE. TFZ08 for TS8 users.

[edfash]

thanks for the response. i have it up on NT and the volume remains light, <1000 contracts per 3 min bar

[jands]

They changed trading times, margin and other things.....most brokers still without data feed hookup...not many platforms to trade on....volume could be very light til all systems are go......

thanks for the response. i have it up on NT and the volume remains light, <1000 contracts per 3 min bar

That's what I'm showing.

[kbandtheriptides]

does anyone know what symbol will be used in esignal? thanks.

and on NJ/zenfire ?
I have all the others rolled but no ER / ICE..

[unkelmark]

on Ninjatrader it is TF

[kbandtheriptides]

on Ninjatrader it is TF

Oh..
I needed to do the reset inst..

[Steve Griffiths]

does anyone know what symbol will be used in esignal? thanks.

Hi Everybody,

I would also be interested to hear if anybody is looking at other markets to trade rather than the Russell...........

Thanks

Steve

[unkelmark]

Steve i'm trading the NQ

and there was a DP buy before market open on the 5 min chart paid Risk to Reward 4.4

I personally have a rule i dont enter trades in the pre-market but as i gain confidence i will.

[edfash]

an entry on the 5 min nq was available after the day session opened. i was too conservative on rollover day.

[jands]

Hi Everybody,

I would also be interested to hear if anybody is looking at other markets to trade rather than the Russell...........

Thanks

Steve

About 30 min ago the ICE Russell was trading two to three times the contracts of the Mid Cap 400.

[edfash]

wave 5= 1.382 wave 1

[edfash]

er retraces to w4 dp while es retraces to w4 low before resuming uptrend.

[Mrkooks]

Short at 1238.25 on DP auto DP with 1240.75 Stop and lots of downside if it breaks.

[Mrkooks]

Out of that one with new DP on the 5 min chart.

[Mrkooks]

Short again on ES DP signal 5 min chart with 3 min manual DP.

Press the down button......... any others shorting this?

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi everybody,

I see that a few of you were having problems understanding why the sell signals on the short-term (3min) charts were failing yesterday. Well, if you look at the 15 minute chart below, you will see the reason why.

As I have discussed many times in my advanced training webinars, it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the larger degree trend. And yesterday, the trend was up from the DP support zone, and as such it was no surprise that short-term sell signals were failing.

This is why it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the 15 minute charts and the larger degree timeframe.

Thanks, and I hope this helps?

Steve

[Larry22]

Short again on ES DP signal 5 min chart with 3 min manual DP.

Press the down button......... any others shorting this?

I saw you post yesterday but was too busy to reply.

As Steve posted you always need to look at a 15 min chart to see where the trend might be, furthermore I trade a lot using EW, look at my 15 min chart and tell me if you would have been tempted to sell this pattern. I hope this will help you avoid some losses in the future. ;)

[kbandtheriptides]

Steve and Larry,
Great posts from both of you ...
thanks for sharing the wealth of your knowledge..
KB

[Mrkooks]

Thank you both for your replies and posting the charts.

Though I did take the trades as they came along on the 3 & 5 minute charts, 2 were break even and my last one i tightened the stop and made a small profit.

Yet, looking at the charts posted and the 15 minute one I was looking at yesterday while taking the trades, I guess I should be slapping my forehead with the palm of my hand ... several times.

I will be more cognizant .. thanks again!

[Steve Griffiths]

Thank you both for your replies and posting the charts.

Though I did take the trades as they came along on the 3 & 5 minute charts, 2 were break even and my last one i tightened the stop and made a small profit.

Yet, looking at the charts posted and the 15 minute one I was looking at yesterday while taking the trades, I guess I should be slapping my forehead with the palm of my hand ... several times.

I will be more cognizant .. thanks again!

Hi

"2 were break even and my last one i tightened the stop and made a small profit."

is a great result, shows you are protecting your capitol well, even when the trades did not work out as anticipated...

Don't necessary "skip" trades that are "against" the trend, just be "aware" that they are, and keep your stop tighter as a result.......... just as you did - so well done....

Steve

[edfash]

not to belabor the point but i think there are some very valuable lessons from yesterday's trades.
as already mentioned the market held a major support after undercutting the prior low. this occurred with a doji on the 60 min chart and in the 15 min DP zone. on the es 5 min chart the first sell signal occurs in the middle of the gap. a month or so ago an astute member of our group (can not remember who) posted his trading rules. the first rule was do not take trades in the direction of the gap when the market is trying to fill that gap. in my opinion a very good rule.
the other 3 losers on this chart are in the region of a minor DP zone. based on the higher time frame charts, the 15 minute would suggest trade from DP to DP, which is exactly where the market went at the end of the day.
today we have already had 2 losers and is in danger of a 3rd. again these occur in the middle of the gap. they also violate the 2nd rule of that astute trader, the C wave is basically a one bar "wave". i can not remember the exact rule, but i believe it related to the formation of the wave.
it is worth your chart real estate to always have a 15 min chart open and to periodically check a 60 min chart.

[Eddo]

Hi everybody,

I see that a few of you were having problems understanding why the sell signals on the short-term (3min) charts were failing yesterday. Well, if you look at the 15 minute chart below, you will see the reason why.

As I have discussed many times in my advanced training webinars, it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the larger degree trend. And yesterday, the trend was up from the DP support zone, and as such it was no surprise that short-term sell signals were failing.



This is why it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the 15 minute charts and the larger degree timeframe.

Thanks, and I hope this helps?

Steve

Just to add my 2p worth to this subject and I know I keep banging on about it but we have just had 3 'failed' Shorts on the ES 5 min - but look at where the Trin was when these setups were pinging away - its was telling me at least to keep away from short trades for the the time being.

........... and look where it was yesterday when we got more failed Shorts ... its magic

Its done me so well over the years I just thought I would highlight that again and hope this might be of some help to someone in the future :) Chris

[Mrkooks]

I note the strength on the 60 and 15 minute charts booth with price and the stochastics.

The price has just moved above and seems to be stalling right at the 1254 ish level.

I am tempted to short this with a very tight stop.

Yet i remain mindfull of the power underlying the move.

And edflash thanks for your input .. valuable lessons for sure!

[edfash]

this short has good trade location with the market above yesterday's high at a significan DP zone and possibly having completed a 5th wave up (the gap representing wave 4).

[Eddo]

this short has good trade location with the market above yesterday's high at a significan DP zone and possibly having completed a 5th wave up (the gap representing wave 4).

I passed on this one so good luck with it Larry - I see the 5 waves you talk about, however I am waiting for what I hope is going to be an ABC which might come in at about 1244 ish in the next 30mins or so - time will tell but for me it dry powder for the time being

[Steve Griffiths]

this short has good trade location with the market above yesterday's high at a significan DP zone and possibly having completed a 5th wave up (the gap representing wave 4).

Yep, I am watching this one as well ........

Steve

[Mrkooks]

Just dropped my stop to 1245.00 . will profit if hit. but hoping this mother cracks thru on the downside and ends the week in what most might consider a down week but with the added benefit of fattening ones back account.

Let 'er rip!

[Mrkooks]

HIT @ 1245 stop .....And such was the harvest!

[Eddo]

I passed on this one so good luck with it Larry - I see the 5 waves you talk about, however I am waiting for what I hope is going to be an ABC which might come in at about 1244 ish in the next 30mins or so - time will tell but for me it dry powder for the time being

Iam now Long ...............

[Eddo]

Iam now Long ...............

Oh dear ........... a long wait for a 1R loss - :(

[Eddo]

Oh dear ........... a long wait for a 1R loss - :(

.. but back in Long again for a 2nd bash at it - tgt - 1252-55

[Steve Griffiths]

Nice one Chris,

let's hope it keeps on going up for you :)

meanwhile, the short still made a nice +2R profit

Steve

[Eddo]

Nice one Chris,

let's hope it keeps on going up for you :)

meanwhile, the short still made a nice +2R profit

Steve

..... well I am not overflowing in confidence at the moment but stops are in so its out of my hands now :)

[edfash]

reversed long in nq. es held opening price so far...vix trending up for past few hours. hmmm....

[Eddo]

reversed long in nq. es held opening price so far...vix trending up for past few hours. hmmm....

Yes I bailed out at the TTT tgt which was a bit short of what I really was after but made up for my 1R loss and got a bit over for the bank :) - its Friday night here in London and time for my 'Indian' - have a good weekend all

Chris

[edfash]

now we have a 3min sell signal. nothing like a conflicted market. have a great weekend all.

[davidh]

Some great posts above. Thanks to all for the sound advice.

Just took the TS2 short on the 3 mins NQ and came out at the wave B low as it was apparently trendless environment.
2.2 R secured and 1R loss avoided.

[kbandtheriptides]

Just to add my 2p worth to this subject and I know I keep banging on about it but we have just had 3 'failed' Shorts on the ES 5 min - but look at where the Trin was when these setups were pinging away - its was telling me at least to keep away from short trades for the the time being.

........... and look where it was yesterday when we got more failed Shorts ... its magic

Its done me so well over the years I just thought I would highlight that again and hope this might be of some help to someone in the future :) Chris

Anyone know if TRIN (Arms Index) is supported on Ninja Platform ?
or how to get it on there !!
Sounds like a great tool..
Thanks,
KB

[Eddo]

Anyone know if TRIN (Arms Index) is supported on Ninja Platform ?
or how to get it on there !!
Sounds like a great tool..
Thanks,
KB

Hi there Rock Star !

Did you get the PM I sent you? the eSignal ticker for the Trin is $TRIN - hope that helps

BTW - I just had to a peek at the market (having just had my Indian takeaway - you Whities from Blighty will understand wot I am on about - lol) and I see that the Market made it right up into my tgt of 52/55 on my ES Long - which of course is typical when I bailed out at 49 cos I let my stupid brain get in the way :mad:

Lesson ............ (for the 1,000th time for me) when I get the setup I have been waiting all day for, I should put the trade on, put my stop in at -1R, put a sell order in at my target ................ and then leave the field ..... do not pass go, do not collect £200, do not look at the damm thing and DO NOT let my brain start playing games !!!!

If I could give your 5 cents for every time I should have done that but didn't, I would be having two cruises a year on Silversea instead of only one! :) I did make a tad over 2R today so I should be happy ............ but ........... :pyou've all been there haven't you

Enjoy your weekends all - Chris

[kbandtheriptides]

Yep..
put it out there to find more info..
I got some..
Free at opentick.com and they support NJT
but they are overbooked on their server
and I'd have to wait in line to get the free data.
anyone else got an idea for TRIN somewhere..
later,
KB

[kbandtheriptides]

"Funny" how we get potential signals at 4:15 est ?

[d-day]

a month or so ago an astute member of our group (can not remember who) posted his trading rules. the first rule was do not take trades in the direction of the gap when the market is trying to fill that gap. in my opinion a very good rule ... the 2nd rule of that astute trader, the C wave is basically a one bar "wave". i can not remember the exact rule, but i believe it related to the formation of the wave. it is worth your chart real estate to always have a 15 min chart open and to periodically check a 60 min chart.

Hi edfash,

Here is the post to which you refer - I agree that these are very good rules/observations, and every MTPtrader ought to copy, paste, and print this post out.

Great post, SCOOPER!

Best Wishes,

d-day

I use all these now (did not used to). Very handy for increasing confidence in any setup.

If anyone is interested I also have a couple of extra very simple rules.....but you need to develop an eye for them

1) If its not a clean swing (by that I mean no mini zig zags in the A B or C and especially not any ranging action) avoid it. Some MAY work out but you have a good chance of a 1R run from the entry and then an agonising stop out very soon after. This counts even if its with a strong trend and you really want to get in. If I take these setups I move my stop to B/E as soon as 1R has been touched.

2) For TS3 setups - never take a TS3 that has a C wave that is one big bar from the wave B low to the Wave C high (or consists two quite large non overlapping bars closing at the highs of the bar (for longs) or the lows of the bar (for shorts)). This type of action may take the market straight into the typcial wave C area but the C wave is too impulsive for me to take a punt. In my experience very little setups like this work out and usually the bar of entry is a little pullback before it continues to a max wave C (typ wave 3). In other words the momo off the wave B low is just to big to bet against it being a simple correction.

3) Avoid TS setups that come up in opening gaps. When the day session minis gap up / down we can quite often get an attempt to close the gap that unfolds as an ABC. Quite often we may be in an opening DP trade but the dilema of taking the new setup arises or if not in a DP trade the setup probably looks nice and clean. BUT if its in the gap avoid it. The market usually likes to fill this gap at some point and if it is making headway into it I don't bet it wont be filled. If you do take it, move stop to B/E as soon as 1R hit.

Anyone new to MTP just review charts over the past few months and spot setups like the ones stated. Do some exercises in trading them and you should find this advice sound.

In addition to this if I do not like a setup so much I want to marry it but I have to take it I will drop risk from 2% to 1% or lower (just taking a single contract which maybe 0.5% say depending on bar of entry size). Strictly speaking that is against the rules of expectancy but once you get in tune with the market you will become calibrated to it more and hopefully the trades you don't take will be your best because you avoided a loss. A good example was yesterdays ABC setups on all e-minis coming off the lows of the day. The setups were good clean TS3/1. I watched this but sat on my hands because I was expecting a wave 5 low to unfold out of the gate as per my post and this had occured. Ok the market may go lower but that gap was through support and very likely to be filled on the upside in a counter rally. I watched all 4 markets and the ER2 at the time was leading the correction and it seemed almost inevitable that closing the gap was only a few ticks away. The rest is history as all the setups failed and we had a good upmove and I went to the pub and then for a curry.

Enough said, got my charts to mark up.

A couple of examples attached.

[Mrkooks]

D-Day

Thanks for posting that article.

Have printed it out and "POSTED" it in a very prominent place.

[Mrkooks]

Had great success with a short on the EURO overnite and took a nice bite out of the free fall.

Held my stops ever so tight and moved them down as it sought out the abyss.

Most certainly watched the 15 minute chart for direction.

Thanks again for the suggestion.

Nearing time for a well deserved nap .... :-)

PS: Not sure where I should have posted this and tried to find out what forum and how to post ot it.

[d-day]

Had great success with a short on the EURO overnite and took a nice bite out of the free fall.

Held my stops ever so tight and moved them down as it sought out the abyss.

Most certainly watched the 15 minute chart for direction.

Thanks again for the suggestion.

Nearing time for a well deserved nap .... :-)

PS: Not sure where I should have posted this and tried to find out what forum and how to post ot it.

Would love to see a snap shot of your chart, set-up, etc.

Good job! Congratulations on a great trade.

[Mrkooks]

David,

I am unsure on how to paste the chart and show the various entries and exits I traded from 4:00 pm Mountain time on Sunday until 4:00 am ish on Monday morning.

I did use a lot of the manual DP's that came along on a 13 unit tick chart, a 55 unit tick chart and the 3 and 5 and 15 minutes charts as well as trendlines at support and resistance areas.

I also use the trendlines on the shorter term tick charts and once broken I generally trade in that direction and drop my stops all along the way. It is ever so freakish to see trades bounce off those DP's but I also often hang in there when they go thru them like butter.

I did capture all of the trades for the 2 days on a spreadsheet from Ninja trader and anyone is welcome to see it.

Here is a synopsis:

sept 14

22 # of Trades loss for the day -805.00
2 Long Trades profit 194.50
20 Short Trades loss -999.50
-805 194.5 -999.5
4 wins & 18 losers

Until midnight, then on sept 15

23 trades profit for the day 12422.00
2 Long trades loss -693.00
21 short trades loss -879.00
Profit for the day 10850.00

In this case I had 13 winners and 10 losing trades.

My best trade of the night was selling the EURO at 143.60 12:02 am MST on its second attempt off it's previous high and buying it back at 141.45 at 4:36 am MST on Monday morning.

MORE IMPORTANTLY this was trading only 3 contracts with the loss under $500.00 for the trade.


I have totally (hopefully) embraced Steve's evangelical zeal of position sizing with controlled risk given floggings nearer to death in the past.

This I would not be able to do without MTP and realize this is not exactly the boiler plate approach that the holy grail crowd want but I just take the signals generated with the software and place my stop and let 'em ride.

Thanks for asking.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Martin,

thanks for your post, however a few things do worry me, in particular the shortness of the timeframes you're trading, and as such the high volume of trades you are taking per day.

For those those who know me, you will know that I have always told users to steer away from very short timeframes unless you are a very experienced trader. Short timeframes are a nightmare and an absolute deathtrap for the unaware. The reason for this is because you can get whipsawed and cut to shreds on such short timeframes.

As such, if you do decide to trade on such short timeframes, then this is your choice and your choice alone. If you are experienced enough to know when short time frame charts looked good enough to trade, then that is okay. Otherwise when you hit a day when you are absolutely hammered please do not come back to us saying that MTPredictor does not work, because you have been told in no uncertain terms that such short timeframes are a very very dangerous place to be.

Sorry for the sermon, but I just want you, and other traders, to be aware that if you are not an expert trader, then trading on such short timeframes is not a good idea.

Thanks, Steve

[richbois]

This was my comment in last night's report

Tomorrow is Sell day. On a Sell day we should anticipate a rally from the buy day low. We closed on the lows and we have a 57% chance of making a lower low. If we open with a gap down, we will have a 96% chance of getting back above today's low of 1195.50.

Now let's see where we go from here.

[edfash]

5 wave sequence with wave 1 & wave perfectly symmetrical, right into the DP zone off the globex session high. looking for a retracement ideally into the DP zone off the wave 4 low. ignore all the sell signals prior to the gap fill.

nice call rich.

[Eddo]

5 wave sequence with wave 1 & wave perfectly symmetrical, right into the DP zone off the globex session high. looking for a retracement ideally into the DP zone off the wave 4 low. ignore all the sell signals prior to the gap fill.

nice call rich.

Hi Larry and Rich

Yes and to give us even more reason NOT to have taken those ES sell setups is shown in the attached ............ yes the good old Trin did it for me again and by the way ............. its still telling me that at the moment I SHOULD NOT be even thinking of going Short at this time :)

[richbois]

This morning the news were all bad and they tried to make us feel that the end of the world is here. We had the same thing happen a few times this year and as we can see from the chart it was always at the Decision Point.

Is today the bottom for this leg????
Will big Ben save or mess up the day???

Time will tell

[Eddo]

This morning the news were all bad and they tried to make us feel that the end of the world is here. We had the same thing happen a few times this year and as we can see from the chart it was always at the Decision Point.

Is today the bottom for this leg????
Will big Ben save or mess up the day???

Time will tell

'Here Here' :) you know, us MTP'ers should be taking over the world :)

Many years ago a very eminent Banker once told me 'when the New York taxi drivers and the Hong Kong maids start buying shares or they all start to sell their shares', that is a bell and the moment for you to start doing the absolute opposite thing[/I]

I include the newspapers in that idea and with a headline in one of the UK national papers today reading So How Much Worse Will It Get? I think that I might be hearing a bell starting to ring and the time to get in might be coming soon :)

[Larry22]

I don't post too often as I am busy with some other projects but I do still trade. Today was a perfect set-up when MTP EOD gave me a nice 5 waves down pattern on the ES and giving the fact that the TTT book was giving me good odds for a climb up to 1195.50 during the day session the trade was a must to take.

We even achieved the TTT expected high.

Forgot to mention that we also had a DP from the previous wave 4 top in that area so everything was in place for a nice rally.

Laurent

[edfash]

wave 5 down off globex highs. in minor dp zone now, positive divergence, although lower prices look likely. breadth -2500, vix rising sharply so far. ticks have exceeded yesterday's low reading.

[edfash]

wrong chart

[edfash]

fu of previous post

[richbois]

Today they were both working well together.

Today was a SS day, and we surely got that. On ES 24 hour session we hit the top and the bottom projections and both were at DP levels. ES day session opened with a gap down and as mentioned last night we had to get back above 1195.50 and we did. There was MTP signals at the open to help you get to 1195.50 but you had to take your profits quick as we were against the main trend and SS day.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi everybody,

there was a fantastic short trade on the NQ later in the day, please see the chart below. Notice how the rally of the low earlier in the day ran right into the DP resistance so from the prior high. Also notice how this rally unfolded as a simple three swing (ABC). With the high at the minimum Wave C WPT as well, this represented a great shorting opportunity.

As you can see, this nailed the high before the sharp decline into the close, for a very nice +5R profit.

Again, although this is advanced manual analysis, setups like this I have demonstrated many many times before.

Thanks, Steve

P.S. I know a lot of you like to stick with just the purely automatic setup, but I really do think there are such great trades available here that can be found with the software, so I do encourage you to do that little extra bit of work to try to understand how identify it setups like this.

[hodger]

The attached TS1 was verified by a manual DP as well....worked out nicely.

[edfash]

5 waves down. target either a DT w w4 hi or DP. intraday vix making new highs.

[Mrkooks]

Most interesting. ES is not moving at the time12:15 pm MST

Seems to be waiting for and announcement or am I not getting right quotes

Currently see 1161.50

Anyone else seeing this?

Guess my feed was not right. Now in motion.

[Larry22]

Today is a buy day and we had 69% chances of going lower, so based on that I was not surprised to see the market go a bit lower then the TTT expected low and reach my wave (3C) (green label) Fib projection target around 1138 as this was also in a Fib cluster area.

I just wanted to show that EW on a bigger time frame are always important to look at anyway I also had confirmation of a 3 min trade at this level also.

Laurent

[Eddo]

Many years ago a very eminent Banker once told me 'when the New York taxi drivers and the Hong Kong maids start buying shares or they all start to sell their shares', that is a bell and the moment for you to start doing the absolute opposite thing[/I]

I include the newspapers in that idea and with a headline in one of the UK national papers today reading So How Much Worse Will It Get? I think that I might be hearing a bell starting to ring and the time to get in might be coming soon :)


Ah yes .............. I thought I heard a little bell a ringing :) :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi everybody,

I've just got back into the office after a few days away and I'm looking through recent charts. Just came across this absolutely amazing trade from last Thursday that had you long in the Russell 2000 just as the strong rally started to unfold.

The result, a very healthy +9.7R profit:)

I presume you all know that the Russell 2000 has now moved over to the ICE exchange, eSignal symbol TF Z8

Remember to click on the chart below to enlarge....

Thanks,

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Then came an absolutely amazing day on Friday.

This is for the more advanced traders among you only, because I'm using the advanced tools it MTPredictor V6. But it does show you what you can do once you become more experienced.

First, we had a three swing (ABC) rally off the initial low, that reversed right at the typical wave C WPT. This signalled a new short trade. The market declined in 5 waves to make a low right at the typical wave 5 WPT. At this point, a massive +13R profit was available.

Then, the market made a low at the typical wave 5 WPT on stochastic divergence, only to rally nicely into the close for another +4R profit.

What an amazing day, particularly for the more advanced traders among you :)

thanks, Steve

[edfash]

today's meal ticket trade

[edfash]

15 min nq gave early warning of the reversal. hourly es makes a reversal bar at the .618 retracement of the move up.

[edfash]

thinnest volume of the month

[richbois]

Today was a Buy day. On Buy days we are to expect a decline from the SS day high and we did. Yes we went further then the normal decline but lately we are having wider swings then usual. We also knew that ES had a 69% chance of making a lower low. We achieved the projected low on all four indexes futures

Edfash's chart shows the NQ DP right on the TTT numbers

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi everybody,

although the markets rallied off their lows yesterday, what struck me was how this rally started to run out of steam later in the session. Signs of this was the ever weakening stochastic. As you can see from the chart below, we had triple stochastic divergence on the 3min NQ, as we entered the minimum Wave C WPT, for a potential wave C high........

yes, I do realise that this is advanced trading, because it was not an automatic setup, however, many of you on this forum are better traders and as such should be able to spot weakening trends like this. Weakening trend is not a signal to take a position as such, you then need to look for additional reasons, for example our WPT / DP levels. This is why it came to my notice because the triple stochastic divergence unfolded at our WPT resistance area.

Thanks, Steve

PS, again, this is more advanced analysis for the more experienced traders among you.

[davidh]

Hi Steve,
Interestingly the trade you refer to above was also flagged in the RT (eSignal) system with filters off. But it would have been stopped out 3 times before it succeeded. What is really interesting is that even with three stop-outs it still made money.
Regards
David

[edfash]

setup on the 15 min with entry on the 5 min.

[kbandtheriptides]

Trying that one too..
after my late NQ buy yesterday did a small profit..
did not catch steves nq sell but did liquidate my buy..

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Steve,
Interestingly the trade you refer to above was also flagged in the RT (eSignal) system with filters off. But it would have been stopped out 3 times before it succeeded. What is really interesting is that even with three stop-outs it still made money.
Regards
David

hi David,

whatever you do do not turn off the 2+2 filter as this is the one that checks that the reversal is at the WPT. If you leave this one on, then I think you find you only stopped out twice before the fall.

But as you say, even with a -2R the +8R profit more than makes up for this :)

thanks, Steve

[davidh]

Hi Steve,
No, the 2+2 filter on my system was not disabled, just the Wave B 50%, retrace limit and ABC time symmetry filters.
Actually I normally leave these on anyway, but I just wanted to see if I could reproduce the MTP v6 trade you illustrated with the RT.
Thanks,
David

[kbandtheriptides]

which way will the breakout go ?
a head fake or take off..
we'll find out when this paint gets dry..

[davidh]

Well KB, I took the 3min NQ TS3 long. Had to be very patient and came out with 2R. Was considering staying in on the ATR but strength band wasn't quite there at the time.
D

[kbandtheriptides]

I also liquidated my position earlier on ATR with a small profit as stf was weak.

[kbandtheriptides]

I did not take any of the sells so far..
lots of little green triangles..
there was a nice one at 13:48 on the 3 min TF with Stoch div..
but looking at the 60 min I did not like it..
hope I'm getting better at this..

[edfash]

5 wave retracement. trend days typically show 1 deep retracement prior to the final hour.

[richbois]

TTT 3 Day cycle

Using the same chart we can also see the TTT pattern for the last 2 cycles.

Sept 18 was Buy day and after a decline we found our buy point at 1612-15 area. The market then rallied and blew right through any projections to a top on the Sell day. We then started to correct that extreme move on the Sell day and continued on the SellShort day
and came down to close as a normal average 3 day rally.

Sept 23 starts a new cycle. We had done a good decline already but we had a 62% chance of making a lower low and that was accomplished.

Sept 24 the Sell day (confusing day) we rallied a bit but it was more a back and fill day.But as you can see that completed our wave 2B.

Today was a SS day. TF opened below the Buy day low and therefore as mentioned is last night's report we had a 90% chance of getting above 703.60 at some time during the session and that was achieved. The others were far from the average 3 day rally, therefore the expect rally was to be anticipated.

NQ today rallied all the way to the DP which was just a bit higher then the projected highs

As we can see MTP and TTT realy work well together

[Steve Griffiths]

A very choppy and tricky day today...........

as you can see, we had an ABC rally followed by an ABC correction on the 3min ES........ all bery choppy and tricky to deal with......

Steve

[davidh]

Nice long YM 3 mins TS4 into DP for 3.7 R.
Took it due to good trend strength as demonstrated by 15 min (24 hr) ADX and a sort of similarity to 'advanced TS3' setup, so didn't take too much notice of red 3 min STF.
Got stopped out first time, went back in again.

[edfash]

just like yesterday, es retracement in 5 waves, into david's long trade or this one on the 5 min dow.

[edfash]

and where does it stop? wave 5=wave 1

[edfash]

15 min charts of YM & ES with 5 wave sequence up today, YM into DP off yesterday's high.

[richbois]

Again today TTT , MTP and the 78.6% retracement realy worked together.

Look at all the cluster on the before and after pictures

Have a great weekend

[Larry22]

Again today TTT , MTP and the 78.6% retracement realy worked together.

Look at all the cluster on the before and after pictures

Have a great weekend

Thanks Richard, great post your TTT combined with my EW skills, and MTP did signaled me a very low risk trade this morning. :D

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep..........

A very nice TS3 buy on the 5min YM for a +4R Profit :)

Steve

PS. Click on the chart to view a larger copy

[Steve Griffiths]

And for the advanced users amoung you........ +4R then +3R on the 5min NQ.

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

I know this is not on the emins, but I could not resist sharing this chart...


What a day for the FTSE...............

A little later in the day, the FTSE made a 3-swing (ABC) rally off the low, but what caught my attention was Stochastic divergence as a red (sell) bar unfolded at the Typical Wave C WPT - this was a great sell set-up........

As you can see, the the FTSE declined sharply into the lower DP support zone where a +11R profit was available !!

Steve

PS, this is advanced analysis, but shows what is possible with MTPredictor

PPS, click on chart to enlarge

[Steve Griffiths]

Amazing.......

ABC, then ABC, on the 3min NQ............... then fell off a cliff !!!

Steve

PS, click on the chart to enlarge

[Stefan61200]

Hi all,

for about 45 minutes I don't get any update on my esignal charts. Just the data of my broker shows me the jumps of the markets. :mad:

Stefan

[davidh]

Hi Stefan,
Yes, wild ride out there today. My eSignal was freezing intermittently too. Was waiting for a short but didn't get anything tradable from MTP today (yet) except perhaps premarket 15 min TS3 short on ES which, if held, would have been a great trade.

David

[Larry22]

The market was just too crazy as I have more then 50 charts with Ninjatrader and E-Signal was just not able to follow and even if I knew where the lows had chances to hold in ES and TF it was impossible to buy them as the feed was just not there to follow the market.

[Steve Griffiths]

agreed, a crazy day............. keep powder dry when markets are like this !

Steve

[radar]

Amazing.......

ABC, then ABC, on the 3min NQ............... then fell off a cliff !!!

Steve

PS, click on the chart to enlarge

Steve,

Were these automatic or manually applied signals?

Thanks,
Ben

[Steve Griffiths]

Steve,

Were these automatic or manually applied signals?

Thanks,
Ben

They were from MTPredictor v6.0 using the Elliott Wave module...

Steve

[richbois]

I guess Steve would call this trade a more advanced one

Yesterday after the close was a good time to get in on this relatively low risk trade close to 1117 area for two reasons,

1st we had the DP and a TS4 (Day Session) on the 30 min chart and Wave 1 = Wave 3

Although there was no signals on lower time frame, when we tested the previous low just a the open at 4:48 EST and failed to go lower , we had nice divergence on the stochastic

2nd we knew that TTT was now on a SS day and that we should get back to the Buy day low. We didnt make it all the way but certainly gave it a try and came close.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Not much on the USA minis so far today, but a nice "advanced" sell on the 5min FTSE :)

Steve

PS, click on the chart to enlarge

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Not much on the USA minis so far today, but a nice "advanced" sell on the 5min FTSE :)

Steve

PS, click on the chart to enlarge

What a nice result................... +6.6R Profit as the FTSE declined into the lower DP support zone :)

Steve

[radar]

What a nice result................... +6.6R Profit as the FTSE declined into the lower DP support zone :)

Steve

Hi Steve,

Nice call!! I was wondering under what situations do you use the stochastics indicator. Do you use it instead of the STF or in addition to it?

Thanks,
Ben

[richbois]

Today we had a great TTT day as all the lows were nailed at important retracement levels and numerous MTP signals were available at these levels

ES 5 min was godd for 6.5R and YM 9R

Nice combo TTT and MTP

[sullivar]

Steve

I remember you were developing an indicator based on volume some time back. Is this still something you are working on?

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Ben,

Yes I look at both.............

Hi sullivar

Yes, I use high volume "spikes" as well, especially when they unfold at DP's

Thanks

Steve

[Mrkooks]

Chart says it all

[Mrkooks]

Dropped stop to 1138.75

Soon to BE

[Mrkooks]

Sure would be nice to have this slicing thru the 1131.50 level in a decisive manner.

Stop now at 1134.50

But now confronted with TS1 on both 3 & 5 minute charts

Anyone else out there trading?

[Mrkooks]

Oh well ... until the next . Feels good when you can trade and walk away with your coin intact.

[richbois]

You will notice that on the ES chart we have a near perfect 5 waves down with wave 1 = wave 5.

We also have 5 waves down on the NQ

This was my comments in my report tonight

Tomorrow is a SS day. At this point we are below the Buy day low and we therefore have a 86 to 91% chance of at least getting above these lows before the end of trading tomorrow.

Looks like TTT agrees with the wave count

[edfash]

this is the 3rd time in about a week that the retracement was 5 waves instead of an ABC. price held the 50 sma on the 5 min chart and has not traded below the opening price since the initial 5 min bar.

[edfash]

after a 5 wave sequence into the low yesterday (as pointed out by Rich in the charts he posted), we now have a 5 wave seqence up reinforcing the idea that yesterday was a key low at the double bottom with 9/29.
wave 2 was a simple retracement and wave 4 a complex retracement unfolding in 5 waves.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Nice to see the DP nailed the high of the day on Friday, please see below (click on chart to enlarge).

This was reversal also on a "high volume spike" that I have talked about a lot recently, so you should have all nailed this one :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

A very tricky day yesterday............... The only trade I can see is the DP Buy on the 3min NQ, see below (Click on chart to enlarge). BUT, although this did make +8R Profit there would have been many "false" starts to the low, so a very very risky play...

So overall, I think caution is advised at the moment, better to keep the powder dry until we get some really obvious and good looking setups.......... caution is the word at the moment

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

OK, OK, I can hear you all saying how tricky calling that low on the 3min NQ was...

But........

The NQ was not the only market making lows at 11:45 yesterday......... just look at the chart below on the YM.

Also Stochastic Divergence, but just look where the WPT support came in - right at the low. Not only that, we also had a minor 5-wave "sub-division" in the last swing down. All of which was also pointing to a low at 11:45.

So combine this with DP support and Stochastic divergence on the NQ and you have added weight for a low

Again, top or bottom picking is not recommended, but I was amazed how well MTP called this one ;)

Steve

PS, Click on Chart to enlarge.....

[Steve Griffiths]

Taking this one stage further, see the chart below.

The pattern that interested me most was the minor ABC "correction" into the 13:27 high............... if you were looking for a trade "in the direction of" the down trend, then this was it :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

And on the ES the picture is even clearer.........

A minor Wave C high at 13:24 which was then followed by a minor 5-wave decline with the low of the day unfolding at 14:45 (same as YM and NQ ;)) right at the minimum Wave 5 WPT support zone...........

This stuff is absolutely amazing sometimes !!

This is what is possible once you move beyond the standard and automatic set-ups to "learn" EW and how to use MTPredictor to its full potential :)

Steve

PS, click on chart to enlarge

PPS, I am using Qcollector Expert to get eSignal data into MTPredictor v6.0 on a "timed" basis every 1 minuite - http://www.mtpredictor.com/support/Qcollector.php

[edfash]

this was my only trade yesterday. the 1600 tick chart is usually about 2-3 minutes and is very helpful finding trend continuation corrections. the triangle reflects 2 bars with equal highs which was made before the trade ever executed. the entry was off the initial reversal bar.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Edflash...

+11R Profit.............. that was a brilliant trade - well done !

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody....

To keep things fair I thought I would post a losing trade.

Yes losses can and do happen, but the trick is keeping them small. In this case at just -1R. Small losses and big profits is the key to successful trading..........

Steve

[radar]

PPS, I am using Qcollector Expert to get eSignal data into MTPredictor v6.0 on a "timed" basis every 1 minuite - http://www.mtpredictor.com/support/Qcollector.php

Steve,
Is there any way to get Real Time data from Genesis into MTPredictor v6?

thanks,
Ben

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Ben,

Sorry, Genesis do not allow thier RT data to get out of the Genesis program itslef....

Steve

[Russell Stagg]

Hi Everybody....

To keep things fair I thought I would post a losing trade.

Yes losses can and do happen, but the trick is keeping them small. In this case at just -1R. Small losses and big profits is the key to successful trading..........

Steve

Yes, I get some of those too - so very irritating:-)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi everybody,

in my customer training webinar yesterday, I was talking about the risk on the US market is being to the downside, and as such we should be looking for potential sell setups. Well, just look at where the high of the day on the NQ unfolded yesterday, right at DP resistance and on stochastic divergence. A classic manual MTPredictor trade setup.

This nailed the high of the day for you to then participate in a potential +8R short trade :)

I hope some of you caught this one ?

Steve

PS. Click on the chart to enlarge

[Steve Griffiths]

Then,

For only the very aggressive traders among you, and if any of you were looking for a bounce earlier in the day, the ABC low at 12:06 was the best looking buying opportunity.

But I still prefered the short trade in the prior post, because of the short side preference yesterday.

Thanks,

Steve

PS. Click on the chart to enlarge

[Steve Griffiths]

Again, as I said yesterday, the risk was to the downside, and again, we had a nice minor ABC, again on Stochastic Divergence signalling a potential short trade....

Steve

PS, click on chart to enlarge....

[richbois]

In my comments last night I said that based on TTT odds, if we gapped down at the open this morning we had 96% chance of getting back above the Buy day low.

To bad the move was so fast and I didn't find any entry point.

You all have a nice weekend

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Initially rally off the lows only unfolded as a 3-swing "minor" ABC on the Russell, but I did not like the strong Wave C (no stochastic divergence).

I do not always look for divergence, but after the last few days of sharp declines there could have been a rally today, so (for me anyway) I would have preferred a stronger sell signal..........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

A small nibble to the short side for the advanced traders........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Then............ later in the day, for the Advanced traders among you

First there was a TS3 (ABC) Buy at 13:50EST on the 5min YM. Yes this was against a red STF, so a slightly risky trade in itself, however, this set a low for what happened next on the 3min chart..........

On the 3min YM we got an "initial rally" off the low, but then (and this is the important part) we then had a minor abc "correction". this was the signal for a new long trade...........

The YM then rallied nicely into the DP from the high earlier in the day for a very nice +6R Profit................ nice :)

Yes, this was advanced analysis, but I hope it shows what is possible once you "learn" how to use MTPredictor to its full potential

Steve

Click on charts to enlarge...

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Again, looking at the "Advanced" analysis that is available in MTPredictor v6.0, with a little "knowledge".

If you look at the attached, the 3min YM made a 5-wave advance in the morning to make a high at 13:30EST............ Now, with all the Bullish hype and knowing that an "impulsive" 5-wave rally had completed, what should the Advanced trader have been looking for next ?

Exactly, an ABC decline to look to get long.........

And that is exactly what happened at 14:30, see first chart below (click to enlarge).......... This minor wave c low was right at the minimum Wave C WPT and on Stochastic divergence and (not show) was on a high volume spike............ A set-up like this is about as good as it gets ;)

This had you long just before the YM shot off............ The ATRSTop would have held you long into the close for a massive +24R Profit !!

And all from a little EW knowledge and MTP v6.0's advanced routines :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Interesting where today's high on the ES came in............ right at the 15min DP ;)

Steve

[Deucalion]

Automatic TS1 with neutral STF::)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

A slow start to the day, but a nice TS3 sell that caught the late sharp fall for a nice +5R Profit on the 3min ES....

Note that the first green triangle did not produce a losing trade as the trade off the 15:09EST bar was not filled before the high of that bar was exceeded, so no trade. so there was only one sell off the 15:12EST bar........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

A perfect example yesterday of what I was teaching in my customer training webinar on Wed. Where we look for the "initial correction" to the "initial swing" off an "important high or low". Remember, we do not use the STF because this correction is very early in the new trend.

See below (click on chart to enlarge), a perfect example of this................ the STF was then strong as we hit the first profit target, so switch to the ATRStop, which would have held the long trade into the close for a very nice +8.9R Profit :)

I hope you all caught this one, especially so soon after my wed webinar :rolleyes:

Steve

PS, be carefull not to look at too short a term charts, as these can get you whipsawed out of good moves like this too soon.....

[Cyber56]

Hi Steve,

Just wanted to say thanks for your teachings in the webinars - Absolutely priceless !!
Attached is a 3 minute chart using the Elliott wave routines that you brought to our attention in the webinar.
They worked so perfectly.
Looking forward to the next webinar !!!

Eric

[edfash]

steve & cyber:

great posts. thank you for the charts. just reinforces patience rewards.

enjoy the day everyone and good luck.

[edfash]

perfect setup on the 5 min chart and entry on the shorter term

[richbois]

An other good example how TTT and MTP worked well together

Today is a BUY day and the expected Decline came in at MTP manual DP

TTT nailed the lows so far on all 4 indexes.

Then MTP