US Markets: Real-time Trading

[tar001]

dp short then a dp(not auto) long and finally a dp short(not auto) all 3 had divergences though

[tar001]

oops I lied, there was divergence on #1 and #3 but not on #2 does that mean I have to give the money back that I made on that trade? haha
:)


dp short then a dp(not auto) long and finally a dp short(not auto) all 3 had divergences though

[qitrader]

Nice trade today. You can trade however you like, with or without divergence on the DPs as long as you are making a profit on a consistent basis. In addition to money management and a positive self image, knowing when to bend the rules is what separates winners from losers. I didn't do as well as I expected but tried my best to minimize any damages to my account (-2R including commission). Today was definitely a tricky day but I'm sure I will finish the week strong. That is all that matters to me now.

[tar001]

I had a good day today but yesterday you will notice I did not post any trades. Yesterday I had a great morning but gave it ALL back in the afternoon. Overall I am happy if I trade well and as weird as it sounds I dont use money as my guide. If I trade well and stick to the rules I am satisfied, if I start overtrading and break the rules I get pissed even if I make great money. At least if you trade well you will survive in this business over the long haul.
better luck tomorrow:D



Nice trade today. You can trade however you like, with or without divergence on the DPs as long as you are making a profit on a consistent basis. In addition to money management and a positive self image, knowing when to bend the rules is what separates winners from losers. I didn't do as well as I expected but tried my best to minimize any damages to my account (-2R including commission). Today was definitely a tricky day but I'm sure I will finish the week strong. That is all that matters to me now.

[tar001]

so far so good

[Rob E]

so far so good

Hey Tar:

Nice one, but how are you getting your WPT lines (entry, stop and target lines) to post on the chart? When I try it I just get the error buzz. What am I doing wrong?

Pardon my Ignorance! :eek:

[tar001]

Hi
thats not an auto setup so you cant use the WPT button, I am using the DP button to find the DP and then I use the R/R button to find the Risk Reward
:)


Hey Tar:

Nice one, but how are you getting your WPT lines (entry, stop and target lines) to post on the chart? When I try it I just get the error buzz. What am I doing wrong?

Pardon my Ignorance! :eek:

[tar001]

Like this one too


Hi
thats not an auto setup so you cant use the WPT button, I am using the DP button to find the DP and then I use the R/R button to find the Risk Reward
:)

[tar001]

boing!!! guess we bounce a bit here


Like this one too

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Absolutely amazing where the initial decline from this morning stopped - right at the 15min DP support zone :)

Steve

[tar001]

So at that point would you then start looking for longs until the market reaches the opposite DP? or how do you play it?



Hi Everybody,

Absolutely amazing where the initial decline from this morning stopped - right at the 15min DP support zone :)

Steve

[tar001]

of course that opposing DP is a looooong way away



So at that point would you then start looking for longs until the market reaches the opposite DP? or how do you play it?

[tar001]

I hope not since I just took this one!!


of course that opposing DP is a looooong way away

[tar001]

And thats a rap!! nice way to end the week


I hope not since I just took this one!!

[Biggo]

And thats a rap!! nice way to end the week

Hey Tar001

Nice one I had a good day also so thank MTP:D

Cheers

Phil

[tar001]

Great!! glad to hear it, have a nice weekend:D


Hey Tar001

Nice one I had a good day also so thank MTP:D

Cheers

Phil

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

I tricky day so far, but we did have this nice TS3 on the 3min NQ :)

Steve

[RicoTrader]

Hi Steve,

Did you take that trade because you looked at the higher time frames? When I looked at it, the STF was flat, so I skipped it. Thanks

[tar001]

so far so good

[tar001]

covered at that DP for a nice profit(even though that chart is so small you cant see it):D


so far so good

[tar001]

and this one:)
covered at that DP for a nice profit(even though that chart is so small you cant see it):D

[tar001]

will it?:confused:


and this one:)

[tar001]

one way to have played this(since the 15 minute did not reach the first DP yet)



will it?:confused:

[tar001]

you have to admit this nailed it(as Steve would say) hahaha



one way to have played this(since the 15 minute did not reach the first DP yet)

[Steve Griffiths]

will it?:confused:

Well, I think the answer to that is a BIG YES............:)

+9R as the market gaped open lower today.......... nice call there :)

Steve

[Rob E]

:confused:

[tar001]

looking good so far:D

[tar001]

on a 15 minute YM chart this was the DP, that is why I was comfortable staying short



looking good so far:D

[Steve Griffiths]

on a 15 minute YM chart this was the DP, that is why I was comfortable staying short

looking good so far :) :)

Steve

[tar001]

looking GREAT so far!!:D


looking good so far :) :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

1 trade, short from the high of the day, for a +6.6R profit .............love it :)

Steve

[tar001]

is this a valid DP? as you can see it did work and was actually a GREAT trade but I am not sure that it is a valid DP? does the DP have to be at a new high or low to be considered? :confused:

[tar001]

took awhile but its getting there

[riccja]

1st. I see on here posts now and then not to use the moving stop to breakeven strategy on the eminis. Is this something commonly followed or are only a few traders on this board not using this.

2nd. How many times do you attempt a failed trade. For instance this morning the first two attempts at a ts3 short trade on ym failed with a loss. But the 3rd has been great...so you take all three?

Thanks

Rick

[tar001]

on short time frames you do not use the break even strategy or you will pretty much get stopped out every time. yes you would have been stopped out once but look how small your loss was and how much the gain was
:D



1st. I see on here posts now and then not to use the moving stop to breakeven strategy on the eminis. Is this something commonly followed or are only a few traders on this board not using this.

2nd. How many times do you attempt a failed trade. For instance this morning the first two attempts at a ts3 short trade on ym failed with a loss. But the 3rd has been great...so you take all three?

Thanks

Rick

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

It still amazes me how many new traders still do not "get it". -1R then -1R followed by +3R today = +1R profit overall. Add this to the +6.6R profit yesterday and you are making very very good money.

Add the +1R long DP trade and your profit goes up even further for the day....... !

This is what successful trading is all about not trying to pick and choose and ovoid the losses..... making money and not loking to be right.

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

And the YM is the "worst example" today so far.

Look at the ES - 2 trades - 2 profits for almost +6R !! add that to the +7R from yesterday and again you are making huge profits............

What a couple of great days :)

Steve

[riccja]

Steve,

No reason to be so defensive about MtPredictor. I wasnt complaining...just wanted an answer to the above 2 questions simply that.

I used ym as an example because its rare you get three trade setups in a row like that..usually 2.

Also I know there are many here and are proponents of not moving to a breakeven stop. I dont recall seeing that in your tutorials....and that was why I asked that question.

Rick

[tar001]

if we hit this profit target I am going to have to fly to the UK to kiss Steve hahah
although this one is a bit iffy since we have the long DP setup on the 15 minute:confused:


And the YM is the "worst example" today so far.

Look at the ES - 2 trades - 2 profits for almost +6R !! add that to the +7R from yesterday and again you are making huge profits............

What a couple of great days :)

Steve

[tar001]

oops!! forgot the chart



if we hit this profit target I am going to have to fly to the UK to kiss Steve hahah
although this one is a bit iffy since we have the long DP setup on the 15 minute:confused:

[tar001]

GREAT NEWS!! I wont be coming to the UK:D



if we hit this profit target I am going to have to fly to the UK to kiss Steve hahah
although this one is a bit iffy since we have the long DP setup on the 15 minute:confused:

[tar001]

DP on the 15 and 3 minute

[Rob E]

:confused: :cool: :D

[tar001]

can we ever:)


:confused: :cool: :D

[Rob E]

:D :) ;) :cool:

[Rob E]

Looks like the YM is a bit weaker than the ES since yours was able to hit the 2nd target level. Well done! ;)

[Rob E]

I'm not holding my breath on this one since we've already put in a pretty full range on the YM so far today. Average daily range has been currently running about 156 pts and we've already put in 193 pts. so my guess is, any further downside from here is probably getting pretty well exhausted. But ya just never know! ;)

[Rob E]

Gotta luv the short side today! :D

[Steve Griffiths]

Agreed,

Here on a 2min chart.................:)

Steve

[rrs]

Despite the fact that this TS2 short trade on 5 min YM appeared after a steep fall in the index, it highlighted and reinforced some very important lessons for me -- lessons Steve often talks about in his postings in the forum and in his seminars:

1) trades in the direction of trend have a higher probability of success

2) always keep an eye on the higher time frame -- the 15 min chart showed a support level at 13491, further supporting my decision to enter and hold this short position

3) Trend Strength Bands in both time frames were indicative of strengthening down trend

Taken together, all this information allowed me to enter and hold this short position successfully. This trade also reinforced, very strongly for me, the strength of MTP as a trading tool: in one of the most challenging futures markets and time frames, MTP does an admirable job of identifying high probability trades, rigorously control risk, meticulously size the positions and very efficiently manage the trades -- all in real-time! Given the emotional reactions and the challenging market environment traders face every day, achieving these goals on a daily basis is certainly no easy task. As a trading tool, MTP far surpasses my expectations and I couldn't ask for more from it in terms of its real-time performance!

Rama.

[rrs]

2) always keep an eye on the higher time frame -- the 15 min chart showed a support level at 13491, further supporting my decision to enter and hold this short position

Rama.

Here is the 15 min chart of YM with the support level.

Rama.

[Rob E]

This trade also reinforced, very strongly for me, the strength of MTP as a trading tool: in one of the most challenging futures markets and time frames, MTP does an admirable job of identifying high probability trades, rigorously control risk, meticulously size the positions and very efficiently manage the trades -- all in real-time! Given the emotional reactions and the challenging market environment traders face every day, achieving these goals on a daily basis is certainly no easy task. As a trading tool, MTP far surpasses my expectations and I couldn't ask for more from it in terms of its real-time performance!

Rama.


I couldn't agree more Rama... I'm with ya and I'll 2nd that all the way. My hats off to Steve, MTP and the MTP team. Well done and kudo's to all!!! ;)

[tar001]

long worked too!! divergence on the DP buy(there was a sell signal that came in where the red arrow is so it was not as easy as it looked) but the sell was invalidated and it turned out to be a great trade:)

[rrs]

I couldn't agree more Rama... I'm with ya and I'll 2nd that all the way. My hats off to Steve, MTP and the MTP team. Well done and kudo's to all!!! ;)

Hi Rob,

Thanks for your comments. Moving forward, it will be interseting to see what happens next -- will the current support levels hold? Only time will tell.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[Rob E]

long worked too!! divergence on the DP buy(there was a sell signal that came in where the red arrow is so it was not as easy as it looked) but the sell was invalidated and it turned out to be a great trade:)


Chrysler named a car after you... the "Intrepid" ;) NICE 1... I was certainly in no hurry to try and fade this market today... my focus was strictly on the short side...but nice catch to close out the day!!!

[tar001]

hey thanks:) Im always the eternal optimist I guess, I was looking all day for a bounce. I got stopped out of the first attempt


Chrysler named a car after you... the "Intrepid" ;) NICE 1... I was certainly in no hurry to try and fade this market today... my focus was strictly on the short side...but nice catch to close out the day!!!

[Rob E]

But will it have enuff to hit the target. Only time will tell! :confused:

[Rob E]

But will it have enuff to hit the target. Only time will tell! :confused:

There goes the neighborhood! ;) :D

[pegasus5]

Trade 1: DP Short

Absolutely beautiful DP Short Setup off 233 tick chart...I like the tick charts because they can provide lower risk entry with greater profit potential....BUT , make sure they conform to larger degree setups...

[pegasus5]

Trade 2: TS1 Buy Setup

Here is my second trade today...Bought 1st pullback following Low of Day

[Rob E]

Gotta luv the short side the last couple of days! ;) Nice looking TS3 on the ER2. We actually had patterns completing on all 4, ES, ER2, NQ and the YM. I choose this one cuz it looked the most uniform completing right @ the typical WPT and next to the NQ was the weakest @ that point (point of completion)of the 4. So we'll see.

[tar001]

I had a great short this morning, I went at the DP(15 minute chart arrow)

[tar001]

I went short this ts setup and got stopped out but took the DP short with divergence and covered at the 1st price target



I had a great short this morning, I went at the DP(15 minute chart arrow)

[tar001]

went LONG at that arrow:D


I had a great short this morning, I went at the DP(15 minute chart arrow)

[tar001]

this would have been the best way to trade this move but its much easier to see things AFTER the market is closed:)




went LONG at that arrow:D

[Rob E]

this would have been the best way to trade this move but its much easier to see things AFTER the market is closed:)

If only I had a dime for every time I wanted to ask that question! ;)

[tar001]

Im one of the best hindsight traders you will ever find!! hahaha
it is tough to do in RT especially with all the bars hopping around on ALL the different time frames. It really can be mentally draining, I see why Matt does mostly EOD. the hard part for me is watching the trading platform(DOME) at the same time? anyone else have this issue? I think the DOME drives me crazier than the price bars with all the hopping up and down it does. What do other traders do? not look at it once the trade is entered and the stop is in place?



If only I had a dime for every time I wanted to ask that question! ;)

[Eckbert]

Im one of the best hindsight traders you will ever find!! hahaha
it is tough to do in RT especially with all the bars hopping around on ALL the different time frames. It really can be mentally draining, I see why Matt does mostly EOD. the hard part for me is watching the trading platform(DOME) at the same time? anyone else have this issue? I think the DOME drives me crazier than the price bars with all the hopping up and down it does. What do other traders do? not look at it once the trade is entered and the stop is in place?

Hi tar, are you referring to the dome in NT? If so have you considered placing your trades directly from the charts? Much easier and one less item to follow.
Eckbert

[tar001]

I should clarify that the price target on that chart was from the failed ts sell, I thought the market MIGHT find some support there and it was getting late in the trading day(actually went through it like a knife through butter):)



I went short this ts setup and got stopped out but took the DP short with divergence and covered at the 1st price target

[tar001]

Hi
not NT's DOME, I use Strategy Runner as a platform and their DOME. how is that trading off the charts? it seems like a great idea? does it work as well as it seems it would? I actually have a problem sometimes of playing the DOME(in other words watching the DOME more than the charts) its some mesmarizing
hahaha:)


Hi tar, are you referring to the dome in NT? If so have you considered placing your trades directly from the charts? Much easier and one less item to follow.
Eckbert

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

The trade of the day for me was the +8R !! on the 3min ES into the close............

See how the bars highs werr not exceeded as it went through the first target - this would have held you short into the close for a massive profit of 8x the initial risk (ignoring slippage and commission).......... what a trade.

Steve

[Rob E]

the hard part for me is watching the trading platform(DOME) at the same time? anyone else have this issue? I think the DOME drives me crazier than the price bars with all the hopping up and down it does. What do other traders do? not look at it once the trade is entered and the stop is in place?


Hey Tar:

For me personally, as much as I can, after I'm in a trade I just step away and read a book or watch TV or something and then come back every 10 to 15mins. or so, to see how things are progressing and make stop/order adjustment's from there as necessary. :)

I try not to just sit and stare @ the screen. Personally, it seems for me that the more I do just sit and stare, the more trouble I'll find myself getting into. :eek: i.e, the more I'm tempted to tinker with the trade or 2nd guess myself. :o

So part of my discipline process, that usually works best for me is to just step away and come back every so often for updates and monitor the trade progress. ;)

[tar001]

discipline? whats that? hahah!! that sounds like a good idea, I need to step away as there is just too much anxiety once you enter a trade and many times I sell(or cover) way too soon as I panic when I have a profit(or a loss)


Hey Tar:

For me personally, as much as I can, after I'm in a trade I just step away and read a book or watch TV or something and then come back every 10 to 15mins. or so, to see how things are progressing and make stop/order adjustment's from there as necessary. :)

I try not to just sit and stare @ the screen. Personally, it seems for me that the more I do just sit and stare, the more trouble I'll find myself getting into. :eek: i.e, the more I'm tempted to tinker with the trade or 2nd guess myself. :o

So part of my discipline process, that usually works best for me is to just step away and come back every so often for updates and monitor the trade progress. ;)

[pegasus5]

YG mini-sized Gold intra-day 13 tick chart shows TS3 Sell Setup that yielded a cool +7R Gain...Very Nice Indeed!!

[tar001]

that is a very nice looking pattern!! how much per point on mini gold? what type of margins are required? does gold trade the same hours as the emini's?


YG mini-sized Gold intra-day 13 tick chart shows TS3 Sell Setup that yielded a cool +7R Gain...Very Nice Indeed!!

[tar001]

by emini's I mean the emini index futures:)


QUOTE=tar001;9581]that is a very nice looking pattern!! how much per point on mini gold? what type of margins are required? does gold trade the same hours as the emini's?[/QUOTE]

[pegasus5]

Here is the CBOT link to e-mini gold..All the info your request is there..

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,932,00.html#metals




that is a very nice looking pattern!! how much per point on mini gold? what type of margins are required? does gold trade the same hours as the emini's?

[tar001]

thanks, I bookmarked that link!! it is very informative:D


Here is the CBOT link to e-mini gold..All the info your request is there..

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,932,00.html#metals

[pegasus5]

Today's NQ Setups (1 Buy and 1 Sell) 2 winners !! :D

Trade 1: TS3 Buy Sweet !!!

[pegasus5]

Trade #2 NQ 89 tick DP Short

Doesn't get much better than this !!!:) :)

[tar001]

I guess it depends on the time frame!! I had a crappy day(but I am not complaining since last week was so good)


Trade #2 NQ 89 tick DP Short

Doesn't get much better than this !!!:) :)

[rrs]

Trade #2 NQ 89 tick DP Short

Doesn't get much better than this !!!:) :)

Hi David,

Great trades!

Which data feed (i.e. eSignal, TradeStation etc) do you use to get these tick charts in Ninja Trader?

Rama.

[jtrade]

YG mini-sized Gold intra-day 13 tick chart shows TS3 Sell Setup that yielded a cool +7R Gain...Very Nice Indeed!!

p5 - does your use of the CCI Average derive from Woodie, please ?
It fits that YG chart particularly well.

J.

[pegasus5]

Hi Rama,

My data feed is TradeStation and Woodies CCI

Cheers my friend,
D


p5 - does your use of the CCI Average derive from Woodie, please ?
It fits that YG chart particularly well.

J.

[rrs]

Hi Rama,

My data feed is TradeStation and Woodies CCI

Cheers my friend,
D

Many thanks David.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[tar001]

up until the latter part of the day

[Rob E]

So much for the short side today. 3 consecutive losses... down - 3R so far on the day... OUCH!!! :(

Was hoping the 3rd time woulda been the charm... so much for that idea! :mad:





Time 2 re-focus on my motto! ;)

Each Trade Is Just Another Marble Out Of The Bag!

[tar001]

interesting day(to say the least) I got stopped out of this 5 minute trade(it doesn't look like it but I did) but I went long on the 15 minute DP, so ended up having a good day:D its too bad there wasn't a color reversal bar(red) on the 15 minute ER short because that turned out to be a great trade



So much for the short side today. 3 consecutive losses... down - 3R so far on the day... OUCH!!! :(

Was hoping the 3rd time woulda been the charm... so much for that idea! :mad:





Time 2 re-focus on my motto! ;)

Each Trade Is Just Another Marble Out Of The Bag!

[pegasus5]

There have been numerous buy & sell setups on 89 tick charts. Oddly enough the time interval charts 1,3,5 minute charts have not yielded much the past two days, while the 89 tick charts have been EN FEUGO!!!

Here is NQU07 89 tick TS3 Buy Signal coming off successful retest of the days lows.

This one yielded a gratifying 12.5R Gain!!!

[tar001]

I dont see how anyone stays sane with an 89 tick chart, that thing is firing off trades every few minute(hahaha) as a TREMENDOUS hindisight trader this would have been a great short today on a 3 minute. As you can see there was NO divergence on the first bounce off the DP but there was offf the second(where the red arrow is)



There have been numerous buy & sell setups on 89 tick charts. Oddly enough the time interval charts 1,3,5 minute charts have not yielded much the past two days, while the 89 tick charts have been EN FEUGO!!!

Here is NQU07 89 tick TS3 Buy Signal coming off successful retest of the days lows.

This one yielded a gratifying 12.5R Gain!!!

[tar001]

by tremendous hindsight trade obviously I am referring to myself!! it sure is easy when the market is closed!! I suppose in time it becomes that way in RT?(please say yes hahah)
:D


I dont see how anyone stays sane with an 89 tick chart, that thing is firing off trades every few minute(hahaha) as a TREMENDOUS hindisight trader this would have been a great short today on a 3 minute. As you can see there was NO divergence on the first bounce off the DP but there was offf the second(where the red arrow is)

[tar001]

I was in this DP YM play early which turned out nice(so there are some nice auto plays on 3 minute charts)



by tremendous hindsight trade obviously I am referring to myself!! it sure is easy when the market is closed!! I suppose in time it becomes that way in RT?(please say yes hahah)
:D

[Rob E]

Can we make it? TRIN's on the bearish side right now though @ 1.14 @ time of posting, so we'll see. Making up nicely for my - 3R day yesterday so far anyways! :D


I think I can... I think I can... I think I can...Choo Choo! ;)

[Steve Griffiths]

Remember to check the STF

As you can see it was way below the strength band, this indicates a weak rally, and reason to look to exit the long trade early, for example using the DP, a profit of +3.9R as the reversal came in at the DP level

See below

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody...

A very bitty day today, but there are some nice profits to be had, for example this classic DP trade on the 3min ER2, for a nice +2.9R Profit :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

And yes the programmer is doing a great job on the new eSignal efs's that contain the automatic DP trade.........

Still a lot of coding to do yet, but they are on their way :)

Steve

[tar001]

GREAT news!! I cant wait for the EFS's, I really dont like NT(too many delays)
great trading today!!


And yes the programmer is doing a great job on the new eSignal efs's that contain the automatic DP trade.........

Still a lot of coding to do yet, but they are on their way :)

Steve

[Rob E]

Remember to check the STF

As you can see it was way below the strength band, this indicates a weak rally, and reason to look to exit the long trade early, for example using the DP, a profit of +3.9R as the reversal came in at the DP level

See below

Steve


Thanks for the input Steve... which is exactly what I did BTW... since I mentioned in my post that the TRIN was bearish also, plus as you mentioned, weak STF... so I banked it early right in the DP zone. :D

[Steve Griffiths]

Thanks for the input Steve... which is exactly what I did BTW... since I mentioned in my post that the TRIN was bearish also, plus as you mentioned, weak STF... so I banked it early right in the DP zone. :D

Hi Rob,

Very well done, looks like you banked your profit at the high of the day !!

Glad MTP gave you early warning that this trade would stall and also gave you a level to come out at, maximising the profit available :)

Again, well done - a very nice trade there !

Steve

[tar001]

thats pretty much all I have to say:D

[Rob E]

Looking good so far!!! ;)

[jjc]

Looking good so far!!! ;)

GL on that trade

I have a buystop at 1941.5

j

[Rob E]

GL on that trade

I have a buystop at 1941.5

j


Thanks JJC:

Just not quite enough uuumpph in the market internals yet to overcome all the red from Friday. Overall the larger degree trend is still down and it'll take a bit more from the + side of the internals to overcome that and we're just not getting that yet. Internals are pretty flat to leaning towards the bearish side @ this point. So far it's looking like the sell side is still the side to be on for now until it can prove otherwise.

[jjc]

Thanks JJC:

Just not quite enough uuumpph in the market internals yet to overcome all the red from Friday. Overall the larger degree trend is still down and it'll take a bit more from the + side of the internals to overcome that and we're just not getting that yet. Internals are pretty flat to leaning towards the bearish side @ this point. So far it's looking like the sell side is still the side to be on for now until it can prove otherwise.


Rob

I agree with what you say.

Better luck on your next trade.

BTW, I held off in taking the trade cause the STF was all red. But, if we had gotten a bullish 123 pattern (i.e fail test of the lod) I would of done a buy stop at the '2' point.

j

[riccja]

I am still in this trade es 3min dp trade from 1435.25

[d-day]

BTW, I held off in taking the trade cause the STF was all red

j

Yes, that was the reason LOL ;)

[tar001]

great way to start the week

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody

Agreed, long from the low of the day on the 3min ES............. Strength band exceeded so use the ATRT Stop............ now at over +7R profit :) :)

Steve

[tar001]

and this to finish the afternoon(one small loss on the prior setup but no biggie)


Hi Everybody

Agreed, long from the low of the day on the 3min ES............. Strength band exceeded so use the ATRT Stop............ now at over +7R profit :) :)

Steve

[tar001]

if it wasnt Fed day I would definitely have taken this one

[dctommy]

if it wasnt Fed day I would definitely have taken this one

That's the best time to take a setup...FOMC...you only risk 1 R & the
market really moves at a FOMC ;)


dctommy :)

[tar001]

I would have actually been stopped out of that trade, that was DEFINITELY resistance though!! was tricky to find an entry:confused:



That's the best time to take a setup...FOMC...you only risk 1 R & the
market really moves at a FOMC ;)


dctommy :)

[Rob E]

That's the best time to take a setup...FOMC...you only risk 1 R & the
market really moves at a FOMC ;)


dctommy :)


Not necessarily limited to 1R if one tries to trade through FOMC. The market can move soooooo fast during that period, it's possible to blow right through a stop and what was thought to be a simple 1R, can quickly slip into a 2 to 3R or more (depending on how tight the stop was to begin with). Personally, I don't trade through econ. reports and other news events, especially FOMC. I prefer to let the dust settle and the market to then tip it's hand from there. Then look for setups going with the flow of the "Tipped Hand" so to speak!

To try and play the news is really nothing more than a crap shoot!

This biz is all about the #'s, i.e, expectancy, expectunity, probabilities and so on and there's absolutely no way that a trader can factor into those #'s, making plays off of news reports with any kind of reliability and/or consistency.

It's playing off those #'s and their reliability that gives we traders the much needed and relied upon faith and confidence to pull the trigger on the next setup and not only just pulling the trigger, but also adhering to our rules/guidelines seeing the trade through to the end. It's the consistency of these #'s that we so heavily rely upon that helps to keep us from sabotaging our trades once in them and gives us the confidence to see them through to completion without getting all freaked out.

I only take the time to mention this tommy considering the rough day you had last week. And because I can so empathize with the pain that you were going through that day, I just want to see you get that behind you and bounce back, which I'm sure you will :)

This biz is tough enuff on a persons psyche on its own, why add fuel to that fire by trying to predict which way a market is going to break coming off news events? My advice fwiw (if anything at all) is to leave the gambling up to the vegas pros and we'll just stick to our expectunity ;)

[Eckbert]

Hi will the bear market continue downwards? The YM and S&P 60 min both at DP levels! Time will tell
Eckbert

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Definitely a rough ride on Fed days ! But interestingly see where the low of the day on YM was - right at the DP support level :)

Not one to trade but nice to see reversal at these level all the same ;)

Steve

[Rob E]

Lookin good so far!!! :D

[tar001]

and since things cant go up forver



Lookin good so far!!! :D

[Rob E]

and since things cant go up forver

At least it went up far enuff to hit my target and get me out for a +3.6R :D

So I'll take it!!! ;)

[tar001]

Great trade!! not sure why mine dropped of the screen? I do NOT like Ninja Trader, this happens ALL the time!! that and the delay(price is delayed by a second or two but it matters) I cant wait until the EFS's come out


At least it went up far enuff to hit my target and get me out for a +3.6R :D

So I'll take it!!! ;)

[Biggo]

Hi I was in the YM ts3 trade as well
My WPT price targets were completely different to yours Rob E for some reason:confused:
I use data from IB & I know people have said that it can miss ticks at extremes of price. However in this case the entry & stop levels are the same but the WPT targets different. I am not unhappy with this as I still got a good winning trade it is just strange 3 off us all got differant set ups. No one lost money & that is the omportant thing;)
My Initial WPT target was 6.1 times initial risk so I obviously took the trade & actually banked profit using the ATR stop so didn't get the 6R trade but still very happy .:)

Incidentally I didn't get the DP trade on the 3min ER@ that TAR001 was in.. Never showed up on my charts !!:confused:

[tar001]

maybe Steve gave us all different algorithms so we dont trade against each other? haha



Hi I was in the YM ts3 trade as well
My WPT price targets were completely different to yours Rob E for some reason:confused:
I use data from IB & I know people have said that it can miss ticks at extremes of price. However in this case the entry & stop levels are the same but the WPT targets different. I am not unhappy with this as I still got a good winning trade it is just strange 3 off us all got differant set ups. No one lost money & that is the omportant thing;)
My Initial WPT target was 6.1 times initial risk so I obviously took the trade & actually banked profit using the ATR stop so didn't get the 6R trade but still very happy .:)

Incidentally I didn't get the DP trade on the 3min ER@ that TAR001 was in.. Never showed up on my charts !!:confused:

[Rob E]

Hi I was in the YM ts3 trade as well
My WPT price targets were completely different to yours Rob E for some reason:

Wow, Biggo... a 2R spread between setups. That seems fairly significant considering that's almost a 40 pt difference between the 2, yours vs. mine. Well, I'm happy that it turned out well 4 U anyways!!! ;)

It looks like you got the better end of that deal though as your's actually yielded a bit more for you than mine did even at the ATR. I banked mine at the 1st WPT cuz the STF was fairly weak going into it, so I figured that any further upside from there would be probably be limited, which in hindsight is how it actually turned out. :cool:

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Now you can see how different data can be from different sources !

Yes we are all using exactly the same algorithms ! But the differences are down to different data from different sources, and YES, different sources can be this different even when we are all looking at the same market.

I too find this amazing, however, there is nothing we can do about it, we just all have to accept that data from different sources can be very different sometimes.........

A wired world we all live in ;)

Steve

But well done to both of you for making some great trades !

[Rob E]

But well done to both of you for making some great trades !


Thanks Steve!!! ;)

[jjc]

The ES is about to open at DP. I will be long at the open per DP at the 1475.00 level.


j

[jjc]

The ES is about to open at DP. I will be long at the open per DP at the 1475.00 level.


j

A few nervous moments but nonetheless banking almost 10 points profit and now meeting my senior citizen friends for breakfast . (and, no i'm not buying)


j

[tar001]

so far so good

[tar001]

anyone else take that one?


so far so good

[tar001]

then theres this :) at a DP with divergence



anyone else take that one?

[jjc]

tar001

with all that news about hedge funds had outsized losses related to mortgage debt you should hit target

gl


j

[tar001]

Thanks! I just took profits on the ER but still short the YM:D


tar001

with all that news about hedge funds had outsized losses related to mortgage debt you should hit target

gl


j

[tar001]

but went long here, double bottom seems to have held(for now) cant go down forever

[tar001]

yep!! nuts it was hahah moved stop to break even though as I knew it was a gamble(and the ts sell setup that appeared) great day today for MTP really that was pretty remarkable:D


but went long here, double bottom seems to have held(for now) cant go down forever

[tar001]

although today seems like a good day to short keep your eye on this:)

[Biggo]

although today seems like a good day to short keep your eye on this:)

Hi Tar001

I got a DP on the 3 min up 9R & still going :D

[tar001]

VERY nice!! now that we hit that price target I wouldnt be afraid to short
:)


Hi Tar001

I got a DP on the 3 min up 9R & still going :D

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Yep a very very nice +8R Profit using the ATRStop, what a great end to the week :)

Steve

[Biggo]

VERY nice!! now that we hit that price target I wouldnt be afraid to short
:)

Hi Tar001

Nice short on NQ I am not in it was too late.. ;)

[Sejake]

Hi all, I'm getting the itch to power up ninja trader and do some RT emini trading.
Just wondering what the best option is for data? I just priced esignal and can't believe that's what most people are using at that price, so just wondering what other options people are using.
I don't think Genesis will work as they are delayed data and I don't think it can plug into NT.
Any help appreciated....

Probably not the best spot for another data question.....apologize in advance....

Sejake

[tar001]

if you are wanting to try it before you commit to real trading I would go with open tick(www.opentick.com) it is pretty much free, you just pay the exchange fee. It is real time but you can experience slight delays if their servers are busy. It is a great way to get your feet wet though



Hi all, I'm getting the itch to power up ninja trader and do some RT emini trading.
Just wondering what the best option is for data? I just priced esignal and can't believe that's what most people are using at that price, so just wondering what other options people are using.
I don't think Genesis will work as they are delayed data and I don't think it can plug into NT.
Any help appreciated....

Probably not the best spot for another data question.....apologize in advance....

Sejake

[tar001]

Tough day today(some what) I broke most of the MTP rules(hahah) I went long at the green arrow, got stopped out at the red one. I went long again at the r/r and rode it to the DP. could probably have shorted it but did not really have a good feel on the market today:)

[Sejake]

thanks Tar001, I'll look into that...

much appreciated

[Biggo]

Hi all, I'm getting the itch to power up ninja trader and do some RT emini trading.
Just wondering what the best option is for data? I just priced esignal and can't believe that's what most people are using at that price, so just wondering what other options people are using.
I don't think Genesis will work as they are delayed data and I don't think it can plug into NT.
Any help appreciated....

Probably not the best spot for another data question.....apologize in advance....

Sejake


Hi Sejake

I use data from IB. If you have an account with them data is free for e mini,s & US stocks.
There are people who have had issues with IB data & it is not always the same as esignal but I still make money using it.. Also it makes sense to me to have the same data as the broker you are executing your trades with, as discrepancies between your chart & your broker could get you in trouble..

Cheers

Phil

[Sejake]

Thanks Biggo, I've heard you mention IB before, looking into that as well.
That makes sense re having the same data as your trading with if you can, that's how I have my forex data set up.

Appreciate it,

Sean

[Gene]

Hi Sejake,

In one of your messages you mentioned about eSignal alternatives.
First of all - IB, TS and other data feed from other brokers are OK but not very good, keep them only for back-up.

I'm testing IQFEED now and I cannot believe how better is than last year (I did not tested since spring 2006, because I stoped trading for family reasons).

I never had any problems in the last 10 days. It is fast (not slower than eSignal now!), accurate and since August 2007
- they have 20 new high power servers now;
-they have TICK RESOLUTION now.
As a report PRICE/QUALITY is for sure a much better deal than eSignal and their support/customer service is excellent - eSignal support is not great.

As far I know about data qulity, it is important what markets someone is trading and where is located (which servers will be used influences the speed up to 0.1-0.2 seconds). I'm in NYC and I use IQFEED RT mainly for CME and CBOT with NINJA TRADER. IQFEED works very well for CME and CBOT. It is a nice surprise indeed.

I suggest you to email Trent Smalley - National Account Manager - at Trent.Smalley@dtn.com and ask for a FREE TRIAL, than make a decision. Or speak with him at 1-800-511-0096 extension 8435. You can tell Trent that Gene from NYC suggested you to contact him.
(www.iqfeed.net)

(You can ask eSignal for a FREE TRIAL too, for comparing data; for NT only data eSignal is not offering a free trial, only for their data + charting package).
I hope it helps.
Regards.
Gene

[Sejake]

Thanks Gene, for the very detailed response!
I'll look into IQfeed as well. Sounds like a good option and I will try them out prior to making any final decisions.
I'm certainly not opposed to paying some $$ for data, after all I payed for years for RT stock data/market depth etc when I was trading stocks, but something about esignal that really erks me...

Much appreciated.

Sean

[Sejake]

P.S. - Opentick was a piece of cake to get up and running in NT....definately a good place to start...

Thanks again

[tar001]

No problem :) it is a great learning tool but if and when you go live(real money) I would switch to a more reliable feed, ie: Esignal Tradestation, etc.


P.S. - Opentick was a piece of cake to get up and running in NT....definately a good place to start...

Thanks again

[Sejake]

Yes, I'm also testing out a CFD platform this week with the eminis on it so it will be interesting to compare charts to see how they match up in real time.
Just a bit of a pain matching up charts - russell on the cbot or ym on the cme with the er2??? yikes....nothing is simple...well maybe its just me :)

S:eek: jake

[tar001]

Is anyone trading off the charts on NT? how is that working for you? I was playing around with it today and it seems pretty nice? what are the pro's/cons? the main problem I have with trading is watching the DOME!! it makes me dizzy and it really keeps me from watching the chart sometimes(since I get staring at the DOME) it is on a separate monitor:confused:

[qitrader]

Hey Tar,

I trade primarily off NT charts. I've been doing it for quite some time now and works great. I don't look at Super Dom. When trading off the charts, I just press 2 mouse clicks to send Stop limit orders.

[tar001]

I was hoping to get rid of Ninja once the Esignal efs's are finished but now I might have to rethink that. From What I understand to trade off the charts you have to open an account with a NT broker? how much do you have to pay for the platform fee each month? Also if you dont mind me asking what are the commissions?
the ONLY thing I have noticed is that it looks like the trade lines might get in the way of seeing the ATR and perhaps some of the other lines? DP's etc?
thanks for your reply
:)


Hey Tar,

I trade primarily off NT charts. I've been doing it for quite some time now and works great. I don't look at Super Dom. When trading off the charts, I just press 2 mouse clicks to send Stop limit orders.

[Eckbert]

Hi tar, follow this link http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/subscribe_trading_platform.htm

Here they have all the different options available. Trading of the charts is really very cool. No need to watch the super dom. As qitrader said a matter of two clicks and your order is placed.

Eckbert

[tar001]

hey thanks alot I will check it out, anyone in this? disagrees with the 15 minute so it probably wont make it




Hi tar, follow this link http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/subscribe_trading_platform.htm

Here they have all the different options available. Trading of the charts is really very cool. No need to watch the super dom. As qitrader said a matter of two clicks and your order is placed.

Eckbert

[tar001]

then again:D


hey thanks alot I will check it out, anyone in this? disagrees with the 15 minute so it probably wont make it

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

A small +2.4R profit off the DP sell on the open today on the 3min ES....

Steve

PS, the testing of the new eSignal efs's (used here) is coming along nicely :)

[tar001]

lets see how this one does


then again:D

[tar001]

that didnt last long(haha) I guess in this instance the longer time frame wins out:mad:


lets see how this one does

[tar001]

looks like a soon to be winner:D



that didnt last long(haha) I guess in this instance the longer time frame wins out:mad:

[Rob E]

Brutal day for me today! :mad:

Just seems to be 1 of those days when nothing seems to want to work. The market internals from the get-go were pointing to the buy side, so I was focused on long set-ups. Tried 2 of em, but no dice. 1st try was a 3 min. ER2 DP buy setup that completed at about 1100am CST and that got popped. For my 2nd try I took a 5 min. TS3 buy setup on the ES that completed at about 1145am CST and that got popped.

So after strike number 2, I figured maybe inspite of what the internals are telling me, I should probably give the sell-side a whirl. So I took the 3 min. TS3 setup on the ER2 that completed at about 130pm CST and is posted below. Needless to say... got popped on that one also. Strike 3 and time is running out!!! :mad:

SIGH!!!

[tar001]

did you take the second one? it just hit the price target



Brutal day for me today! :mad:

Just seems to be 1 of those days when nothing seems to want to work. The market internals from the get-go were pointing to the buy side, so I was focused on long set-ups. Tried 2 of em, but no dice. 1st try was a 3 min. ER2 DP buy setup that completed at about 1100am CST and that got popped. For my 2nd try I took a 5 min. TS3 buy setup on the ES that completed at about 1145am CST and that got popped.

So after strike number 2, I figured maybe inspite of what the internals are telling me, I should probably give the sell-side a whirl. So I took the 3 min. TS3 setup on the ER2 that completed at about 130pm CST and is posted below. Needless to say... got popped on that one also. Strike 3 and time is running out!!! :mad:

SIGH!!!

[Rob E]

Could be a nice way 2 finish an otherwise brutal day! :confused:

Almost there...can we make it???

[Rob E]

Guess we have 2 change the old adage to... 4th time's a charm!!!



Each Trade Is Just Another Marble Out Of The Bag!

[tar001]

this would make a nice end of day trade(bouncing off the 15 minute as well)

[tar001]

hmmmm
I guess the orange wpt became resistance!! I thought for sure it would hit the DP(thats what I get for thinking)



this would make a nice end of day trade(bouncing off the 15 minute as well)

[tar001]

by the way I am not insinuating that I sold at the orange wpt. I got stopped out for a loss!! then again I sometimes think I am making this waaaaaaaaaay harder than it needs be?(although the first setup on this 15 minute would have stung)
:D



hmmmm
I guess the orange wpt became resistance!! I thought for sure it would hit the DP(thats what I get for thinking)

[tar001]

looking at this trade now, it was definitely the trade to take. The second TS setup was at a DP(so was the first) but the second had divergence as well

[d-day]

Hi Everybody,

A small +2.4R profit off the DP sell on the open today on the 3min ES....

Steve

PS, the testing of the new eSignal efs's (used here) is coming along nicely :)


Hi Steve,

That's great news on the e-signal efs's. I have tried Ninjatrader repeatedly without success.

I have aquestion - on the auto DP's - is there anyway that you will be able to have the stop entry/stop loss and position size automatically calculated and placed on the chart when the auto DP is signalled?

Also, I use ATR settings diferent from the MTP defaults settings. The ATR efs, as it is currently programmed, does not allow the user to change the settings and save those changes to be the standard default. Is there anyway this could be changed so that I do not have to go in and enter my settings each time I place the ATR on the chart?

Thank you,

David

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Steve,

That's great news on the e-signal efs's. I have tried Ninjatrader repeatedly without success.

I have aquestion - on the auto DP's - is there anyway that you will be able to have the stop entry/stop loss and position size automatically calculated and placed on the chart when the auto DP is signalled?

Also, I use ATR settings diferent from the MTP defaults settings. The ATR efs, as it is currently programmed, does not allow the user to change the settings and save those changes to be the standard default. Is there anyway this could be changed so that I do not have to go in and enter my settings each time I place the ATR on the chart?

Thank you,

David

Hi David,

Yes when you click on WPT, then on the set-up the position size (number of lots) and R/R will all be placed on the chart automatically for you - makes things very easy and quick :)

The way esignal works is that the setting are saved for each individual chart, so once saved you need not change the settings again on that chart

Thanks

Steve

[tar001]

looking for shorts today until the ER hit the DP on the 15 minute(ALL day)
took this short off the DP(not auto) and the TS4 setup!! that seems to be the key, using the longer time frame as your guide to trend and the short time frames to find entries. Everyone always told me that but I was too thick headed to believe it at first
hahah:D

[davidh]

Tar
Good analysis of today's situation, I was thinking the same way but then got a minor obsession about an advanced TS3 long setting up on the AB and lost it from there!

[tar001]

hey
thanks, the thing that threw me off was that the YM was at its DP(and sometimes the ER has a mind of its own and doesnt follow DP rules):)


Tar
Good analysis of today's situation, I was thinking the same way but then got a minor obsession about an advanced TS3 long setting up on the AB and lost it from there!

[Rob E]

Nice lookin TS3 on the NQ

[Rob E]

Nice lookin TS3 on the NQ


Took a while, but it finally made it! :D

[jjc]

I'm long on this beauty


j

[Rob E]

Let's see what this does! Nice lookin/uniform TS3 Sell on the ES!

[jjc]

I'm long on this beauty


j


cause for concern on that red ts3 but held on to the blue ts3


j

[Rob E]

cause for concern on that red ts3 but held on to the blue ts3


j


Nice 1 jjc! Looks like your's is panning out. :)

Here's another nice lookin 15 min. TS3 sell on the YM which is lookin good so far! ;)

[Rob E]

Here's another nice lookin 15 min. TS3 sell on the YM which is lookin good so far! ;)

WOW! SWEET!!!

For a 15 min. setup, that was a fast move! :cool:

[tar001]

yeah I was in that too!! I was long in the AM and was surprised to see you were short the NQ because the indices were bouncing off the longer term DP's but your short on the Nasdaq worked out great!! I was long and then went short at the sell on the 15 minute. What a great day:D


WOW! SWEET!!!

For a 15 min. setup, that was a fast move! :cool:

[tar001]

I was really surprised this did not reach the DP, I could tell by the pattern of the color reversal bars that it wasnt going too. BUT it was not convincing enough to short because it wasnt at the DP(and no divergence)



yeah I was in that too!! I was long in the AM and was surprised to see you were short the NQ because the indices were bouncing off the longer term DP's but your short on the Nasdaq worked out great!! I was long and then went short at the sell on the 15 minute. What a great day:D

[jjc]

for me, buy stop on ym 15min @ 12850


j

[tar001]

unreal!! anyone else get this one?:D

[Rob E]

unreal!! anyone else get this one?:D


WOW! Nice 1 Tar! No I didn't take that 1, instead I took the 3 min. NQ TS2 sell setup. I was lookin for a good sell opportunity and the NQ fit the bill for me.

Very Nice though... Lunch is on you!!! ;)

And I'll get the tip! :D

since I only made about 1/4 of yours... Well Done!!!

And I'm happy to be out now too since the Philly Fed report is due out in about 15 mins. so our setups reached their targets in good timing!!!

[tar001]

The Philly Fed? I guess that means we will be having Philly cheese steaks on me
:D



WOW! Nice 1 Tar! No I didn't take that 1, instead I took the 3 min. NQ TS2 sell setup. I was lookin for a good sell opportunity and the NQ fit the bill for me.

Very Nice though... Lunch is on you!!! ;)

And I'll get the tip! :D

since I only made about 1/4 of yours... Well Done!!!

And I'm happy to be out now too since the Philly Fed report is due out in about 15 mins. so our setups reached their targets in good timing!!!

[tar001]

would anyone consider a long here?

[tar001]

by the way I am not in that as there is alot of selling but it is a valid trade?


would anyone consider a long here?

[Rob E]

would anyone consider a long here?


Personally, I wouldn't be to quick to jump on the long side today. At least not until the following levels are reached:

ES = 1375
ER2 = 739
YM = 12606

Until these levels are hit, we could have a little more expansion to the downside!

I'd be content today just focusing on the sell side and looking for good sell setups until... as I mentioned above, we extend it a little further to the downside and hit those levels.

That's just my input fwiw! ;)

But ya just never know... so we'll have 2 just wait and see!

Yeah, it's a valid setup that you posted but whether in this market today it could reach the target... only time will tell... I certainly wouldn't bank on it today though and with that in mind, I don't know that it would be worth the risk trying to fade this bearishness today!

[Rob E]

The Philly Fed? I guess that means we will be having Philly cheese steaks on me
:D


Sounds good 2 me! :D I'll take extra peppers, onions and cheese with mine please!!!;)

[tar001]

holy crap:) where did you get those #'s? the Dow just hit that? perhaps lunch should be on you




Personally, I wouldn't be to quick to jump on the long side today. At least not until the following levels are reached:

ES = 1375
ER2 = 739
YM = 12606

Until these levels are hit, we could have a little more expansion to the downside!

I'd be content today just focusing on the sell side and looking for good sell setups until... as I mentioned above, we extend it a little further to the downside and hit those levels.

That's just my input fwiw! ;)

But ya just never know... so we'll have 2 just wait and see!

Yeah, it's a valid setup that you posted but whether in this market today it could reach the target... only time will tell... I certainly wouldn't bank on it today though and with that in mind, I don't know that it would be worth the risk trying to fade this bearishness today!

[Rob E]

Sell side is the place 2 B for now!!! :D

Just as Steve continually harps on... "Go with the flow is the name of the Game and the 1 of the Keys to the game!!!"

Thanks Steve!!!

If you had an icon of a the little guy taking his hat off, that'd be my icon 2 U!!! :))

Hat's off 2 Steve!!!

[jjc]

Maybe "circuit breakers" soon ?


j

[Rob E]

We're hitting levels in here now where IF and I stress the word "IF" we could find a good DP setup in here around these levels, it might be worthwhile to start giving the long side a try.

I think things are starting to get a little overcooked to the downside now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of bounce to start kickin in here soon.

[Rob E]

Well, it's not a DP but the risk is small and we have divergence so it could be worth a go since I'm looking for some sort of bounce in here... we'll see!:eek:

[Rob E]

Well, it's not a DP but the risk is small and we have divergence so it could be worth a go since I'm looking for some sort of bounce in here... we'll see!:eek:

Well... That'll work!!! ;)

[tar001]

if this hits I'll buy dinner too:D




Well... That'll work!!! ;)

[tar001]

and breakfast?


if this hits I'll buy dinner too:D

[tar001]

out spending all your money from yesterday?:) anyone take this?

[tar001]

but patience finally paid off:D

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Even though it was a flat and frustrating day yesterday, there were some profitable trades to be had - for example on the 3min YM

I particularly liked the way the DP sell nailed the high of the day :)

Steve

[Rob E]

I think we've become spoiled feeding on the volatility bottle the last few weeks. This setup and subsequent move (if you want to call it that:rolleyes:) is about as exciting as watching paint dry!!! :D

But hey... @ least it's heading it the right direction!!! ;)

[Rob E]

Oh well!!! Someone just threw a bucket of turpentine on my paint drying session! :(

[davidh]

Am in the TS2 5min YM long. Any one have any ideas what to do when the exchange goes down? Does stop get respected at entered price when exchange comes back on line or should one considering a 'hedge' short on ES?
Thanks
David

[Biggo]

Am in the TS2 5min YM long. Any one have any ideas what to do when the exchange goes down? Does stop get respected at entered price when exchange comes back on line or should one considering a 'hedge' short on ES?
Thanks
David


Hi David

I am also long YM.
I have hedged by shorting CFDs with cmc on their US30 contract which mirrors the YM.
Having said that looks like more potential buy set ups comming up on other e mini,s ?

Phil

[davidh]

Thanks Biggo - does that imply that my stop will slide to whatever the exchange reopens at (if taken out)?

[Biggo]

Thanks Biggo - does that imply that my stop will slide to whatever the exchange reopens at (if taken out)?

I am not sure, but I beleive that your stop will not be exicuted untill the exchange problem is resolved. If price is beyond your stop price you will be filled at the market price at that time. Best to check with your broker.

Phil

[Biggo]

US30 Chart not looking too bad!! at the moment...

[Biggo]

eCBOT markets are being halted
AEMS is restarting the trading host. All day orders will be canceled. GTC orders will remain in the system.


Hi David.

The above text is off the CBOT website

Cheers

Phil

[davidh]

Thanks Phil - we'll see where we are at 1230 when financial products reope!
David

[billm]

Am in the TS2 5min YM long. Any one have any ideas what to do when the exchange goes down? Does stop get respected at entered price when exchange comes back on line or should one considering a 'hedge' short on ES?
Thanks
David

Hi David,

If you have the quantity, you cover in the pit, if not, you wait or try some form of correlating hedge, ie. tracking stock, etf, mini s&p, etc, that you 'hope' will correlate. In the 'old days', the heads of the pit broker associations would convene in a designated area and fill the orders that were intended for 'the machine'.

Good luck,
BillM

[davidh]

Hmmm, well, came out of it automatically at 13230, but had hedged with ES short until the TS4 reversal so just a bit down overall.:eek:
Think I need a lie down in a dark room now....
Cheers,
David

[Rob E]

Rob E <<<<< Guarding against flying buckets of turpentine! :D

[jay21]

Guys,

I have a question that I am interested to hear if anybody has a view on;

I find that it happens quite commonly when trading DPs that one will short the strongest contract, and buy the weakest one. This happens quite naturally because the strongest one will reach the sell-DP first, and the weakest one will reach the buy-DP first.

Today is a perfect example where I am currently short the NQ which was the first contract to reach DP, and as it is very strong it does not move to the downside although other contracts do.:(

Anyone has an opinion on how to approach this problem?

Best regards,
Johan

[dctommy]

Man I got my head handed to me today! :( Why?

BECAUSE I TRADED AGAINST THE TREND!! :mad:

I kept biting on DP short reversals & kept losing...:(

I did have one good long early...and I got spooked out of it for +2R

Look what would have happened if I had only followed the guidelines
(trade with trend, use ATR trail, etc...) & stayed in long.. see
attached....OUCH!

I missed + 9R on that trade....left +7 R on table & took -4R for day...
a net difference of +11R.....


dctommy :(

[Steve Griffiths]

yep, always trade "with" the trend...........

Thanks for posting as this will help other traders learn as well, so thanks for posting these comments...

Steve

[rrs]

Guys,

I have a question that I am interested to hear if anybody has a view on;

I find that it happens quite commonly when trading DPs that one will short the strongest contract, and buy the weakest one. This happens quite naturally because the strongest one will reach the sell-DP first, and the weakest one will reach the buy-DP first.

Today is a perfect example where I am currently short the NQ which was the first contract to reach DP, and as it is very strong it does not move to the downside although other contracts do.:(

Anyone has an opinion on how to approach this problem?

Best regards,
Johan

Hi Johan,

What you describe in your message is a problem that intraday traders frequently encounter. Your description of the price action that leads to this problem makes perfect sense. Having watched, over period of several months, this problem unfold in real time, particularly during strong trend days, I can tell you that there are many solutions. The suggestions that follow are based on my own observations and reflect my risk tolerance and conservative approach to DP trades. Ultimately, I am sure, you will devise your own solution.

In addtion, you will, over time, notice that many of these DP setups never get confirmed because the momentum in the direction of the current trend is so strong that the price action simply blasts through these DP levels. You will also notice that the alarm bells in the Ninja Trader's Market Analyzer will be generating so much sound and fury at this point in time that some times it can drive you crazy and confuse you!

The first thing to realise is that DP trades by definition are counter-trend trades -- counter to the main trend seen in the chart of the time frame you are trading -- for example 5 min chart. Visually, this fact is very obvious. In the Ninja Trader version of MTP, the DP trades are automatically generated by the software. Steve (the developer of MTP) describes the DP trades in great detail in his Introduction to MTP document. Please make sure that you understand the fact that to verify the validity of a DP trade setup the trader needs to look at the height of the bars in the STF.

A valid DP setup has three potential outcomes. It may lead to one of the following: 1) retracement 2) change of trend 3) Failure -- meaning the current trend continues to move in the same direction and invalidates the DP setup.

The first and the most simple solution to the problem you describe is to simply take the DP setup if it gets confirmed and hope that it will lead to either outcome 1 or outcome 2. This is the most favoured solution.

The second potential solution will be to look at the relationship between the DP setup and the prevailing trend in the higher time frame. This information is readily available in the color of the STF. If the DP setup is in harmony with the prevailing trend in the higher time frame, I tend to take them. What is the rationale behind this approach? It is based upon the fact that trading against the prevailing trend in the higher time frame leads to higher probability of failure. But, this is only a suggestion! You will have to do your own analysis and decide if this idea is worth exploring further.

Additional factors that may help you in solving this problem are:

1) momentum / strength of the trend in the time frame you are trading. This can be assessed by looking at the height of STF and the strength bands. Another method would be to look at three exponetial moving averages (EMA) -- their slope and the degree of separation between them (please see the attached charts). Some call the EMAs the "dynamic trend lines" and they instantly convey the critical information on the main trend in the time frame you are trading.

2) some what similar but more subtle and precise information on trend, momentum and price range expansion is conveyed by DMI / ADX. I find them helpful in intraday trading. In order to keep the length of this message under control I won't go into the details of its use in intraday trading

As I have said before, MTP detects and recognises, with a very high degree of accuracy, the ABC pattern and DP trades in real-time and provides a way to enter these trade setups with minimal risk and proper postion sizing. By constantly monitoring what I consider the other two important factors in intraday trading -- the trend characteristics and momentum -- I have, so far, got the best results I can hope for in the most challenging area of trading -- intraday trading of stock index futures contracts.

The attached NQ charts show how things would have looked on the day you posted your message -- with additional indicators mentioned above placed on the charts. The first chart attempts to recreate the situation at the start of the day and the second chart shows how things looked at the end of the trading day. There are several finer points in these charts that I have not highlighted. I thought you may find them useful in your quest to find your own answers to the problem you mentioned in your message.

Good luck in your trading!

Rama.

[rrs]

Hi Johan,
The second potential solution will be to look at the relationship between the DP setup and the prevailing trend in the higher time frame. This information is readily available in the color of the STF. If the DP setup is in harmony with the prevailing trend in the higher time frame, I tend to take them. What is the rationale behind this approach? It is based upon the fact that trading against the prevailing trend in the higher time frame leads to higher probability of failure. But, this is only a suggestion! You will have to do your own analysis and decide if this idea is worth exploring further.

Additional factors that may help you in solving this problem are:

1) momentum / strength of the trend in the time frame you are trading. This can be assessed by looking at the height of STF and the strength bands. Another method would be to look at three exponetial moving averages (EMA) -- their slope and the degree of separation between them (please see the attached charts). Some call the EMAs the "dynamic trend lines" and they instantly convey the critical information on the main trend in the time frame you are trading.

2) some what similar but more subtle and precise information on trend, momentum and price range expansion is conveyed by DMI / ADX. I find them helpful in intraday trading. In order to keep the length of this message under control I won't go into the details of its use in intraday trading

.....
Good luck in your trading!

Rama.

Hi Johan,

Here are some addtional charts selected at random that illustrate the points discussed above.

Rama.

[Rob E]

Hi Johan,

What you describe in your message is a problem that intraday traders frequently encounter. Your description of the price action that leads to this problem makes perfect sense. Having watched, over period of several months, this problem unfold in real time, particularly during strong trend days, I can tell you that there are many solutions. The suggestions that follow are based on my own observations and reflect my risk tolerance and conservative approach to DP trades. Ultimately, I am sure, you will devise your own solution.

In addtion, you will, over time, notice that many of these DP setups never get confirmed because the momentum in the direction of the current trend is so strong that the price action simply blasts through these DP levels. You will also notice that the alarm bells in the Ninja Trader's Market Analyzer will be generating so much sound and fury at this point in time that some times it can drive you crazy and confuse you!

The first thing to realise is that DP trades by definition are counter-trend trades -- counter to the main trend seen in the chart of the time frame you are trading -- for example 5 min chart. Visually, this fact is very obvious. In the Ninja Trader version of MTP, the DP trades are automatically generated by the software. Steve (the developer of MTP) describes the DP trades in great detail in his Introduction to MTP document. Please make sure that you understand the fact that to verify the validity of a DP trade setup the trader needs to look at the height of the bars in the STF.

A valid DP setup has three potential outcomes. It may lead to one of the following: 1) retracement 2) change of trend 3) Failure -- meaning the current trend continues to move in the same direction and invalidates the DP setup.

The first and the most simple solution to the problem you describe is to simply take the DP setup if it gets confirmed and hope that it will lead to either outcome 1 or outcome 2. This is the most favoured solution.

The second potential solution will be to look at the relationship between the DP setup and the prevailing trend in the higher time frame. This information is readily available in the color of the STF. If the DP setup is in harmony with the prevailing trend in the higher time frame, I tend to take them. What is the rationale behind this approach? It is based upon the fact that trading against the prevailing trend in the higher time frame leads to higher probability of failure. But, this is only a suggestion! You will have to do your own analysis and decide if this idea is worth exploring further.

Additional factors that may help you in solving this problem are:

1) momentum / strength of the trend in the time frame you are trading. This can be assessed by looking at the height of STF and the strength bands. Another method would be to look at three exponetial moving averages (EMA) -- their slope and the degree of separation between them (please see the attached charts). Some call the EMAs the "dynamic trend lines" and they instantly convey the critical information on the main trend in the time frame you are trading.

2) some what similar but more subtle and precise information on trend, momentum and price range expansion is conveyed by DMI / ADX. I find them helpful in intraday trading. In order to keep the length of this message under control I won't go into the details of its use in intraday trading

As I have said before, MTP detects and recognises, with a very high degree of accuracy, the ABC pattern and DP trades in real-time and provides a way to enter these trade setups with minimal risk and proper postion sizing. By constantly monitoring what I consider the other two important factors in intraday trading -- the trend characteristics and momentum -- I have, so far, got the best results I can hope for in the most challenging area of trading -- intraday trading of stock index futures contracts.



Good luck in your trading!

Rama.

To add 2 Rama's excellent thoughts here's a couple of suggestions that I find helpful in keeping me out of some of the troubles you mentioned Johan.

1. this goes hand in hand with trading in the direction of the HTF trend, but one thing that I monitor throughout the trading day and try to gauge is the overall mood of the market and my goal each day is to trade with the "Mood." What I like to refer to as the "Pulse" of the market. I determine this by monitoring the TRIN and the VIX, along with the HTF trend. Those primarily are my 3 components that I use for dertermining the "Pulse" of the market. If you've noticed in some of my posts, I'll refer to this pulse as the market internals. I also monitor the ADV/DEC spreads for both the NAZ and the NYSE.

I have a TRIN indicator for TS that is similar to the MTP TRIN on esignal that I use and I also have a VIX paintbar study that I had designed that functions in similar fashion to the TRIN indicator.

When the TRIN, VIX and HTF trend are all pointing towards the bullish side as they were on Friday and in agreement, my advice is: "Do not try to fade that strength and consensus" until the market that you want to enter on has put in a full range.

Which leads to suggestion number 2.

Another statistic that I keep track of each trading day, is the "Average Daily Range" based on the previous 10 trading periods. I track this average for every issue that I trade. For example, coming into todays action "Monday 8-27-07" here are the approximate avg. daily ranges for: ES = 33.65pts, ER2 = 23.18pts, NQ = 43.20pts, YM = 249.30pts.

Just as the old adage goes: "The trend is your friend" as mentioned above, when possible I'm always trying to "Go with the flow of the market mood" for that day. Don't get in the habit of trying to fade the market mood unless that market has put in a full range. Personally, that's about the only time that I'll start dabbling in counter-trend trades. My reason for this is because I figure that by the time a market has put in a full days range (based on the running daily average) theoretically it should be nearing a point of exhaustion where a larger degree correction would be more likely. At least it should be closer to reaching an exhaustion point after putting in a full range, than it would be after putting in only a partial range.

So to use your example from Friday, you were trying to fade the market pulse (strength for that day) by taking the DP sell setups on the NQ as per your post. As of Friday, the NQ's avg. daily range going into that day was running at 39.60 pts. So for me personally to even consider taking up a counter trade that day on the NQ, it would have had to reach the 1970.60 area (1931.00 LOD + 39.60 ADR = 1970.60) before I'd consider fading that strength.

Now, since the NQ put in a HOD = 1970, would mean that it didn't even hit my level until the end of day. But the flip side of that is: "It would have prevented me from attempting to fade that strength, thereby keeping me out of some of those DP's and keeping some of those resulting losses out of my bottom-line" which in my book is the same thing as making $$$ because it all effects the bottom-line.

Now please understand, I'm not saying: "Don't ever counter-trend trade" Just do it when the odds of reaping the benefits are stacked a little more in your favor and to me part of that answer lies in gauging the ranges and finding those areas that are becoming more prone to price exhaustion in which to enter those trades.

For example, if the NQ had hit the 1970 area earlier in the day and put in that full range based on the current averages. Then if some DP setups presented themselves, I'd have been much more inclined to take em by that point and experience has shown me over the years, that your odds get much better fading strength or weakness after a market has put a full range. Is this approach bullet-proof? Of course not! But it's just another tip/trick in the traders toolbox that helps to put the odds in your favor.

Here's another example of what I'm referring too. See my posts starting with this one http://www.mtptrader.com/showpost.php?p=9893&postcount=1438 and then work down from there. What I've been explaining here in this post is how I came up with those numbers, levels and entries and you can see that the markets made a nice recovery coming off those levels and the counter-trend trade that I entered worked out that time. But to reiterate and as you can see in those posts, I didn't or wouldn't even consider fading that weakness that day until the markets had at least put in a full range based on the current running averages.

Consider a market that has put in a full days range kind of like a gas tank running on fumes. Yes, for that day it's possible that tank has come with a built in reserve tank and it could just keep on going. But not every tank comes with a built in reserve and by the time it's running on fumes, betters your odds of that vehicle depleting its final vapor and coming to a stop.

So to recap... go with the market flow/mood of that day until the market you're following has put in a full range based on the averages, then after that point, consider taking the DP's. But like anything in this biz and life in general, each situation is unique has to be evaluated given all the variables of the moment. There are exceptions to every rule and guideline.

Hope this helps and best of luck and may the flow of the market always be with your trade!!! ;)

Rob E!!!

[tar001]

they work brilliantly:D
whats the deal on the EFS's? they about finito?

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep :)

They certainly do, here is the new efs's nailing this high perfectly for a +5.3R profit - nice .........

Steve

[jay21]

Rama and Rob,

thanks a lot for your excellent comments - very educational and helpful indeed!

My general comment on trying to gauge the trend in intraday trading is that I find it quite difficult to determine it early in the day. Late in the day it is much easier. Friday of last week, where we discussed the NQ, is a good example of this. On my screen the HTF trend was black (no direction) early on, and the TRIN was red...

Adding market internals and other indicators that you propose might be a good way to get a clearer picture of the general trend early in the day:).

In that regard I had one additional question for you Rob - as I am not that familiar with the VIX, how do you us it to gauge market direction?

Best regards,
Johan

[Rob E]

Rama and Rob,



In that regard I had one additional question for you Rob - as I am not that familiar with the VIX, how do you us it to gauge market direction?

Best regards,
Johan

When using the TRIN, here's something to keep in mind. It really doesn't start to wake up until roughly after about the 1st 30 mins. of the trading day. It takes a little while for the TRIN to get acclimated to the new trading day. So my advice on using the TRIN is don't rely to heavily on it's readings (in other words, take it with the proverbial grain of salt so to speak) until after about 30 mins. have passed.

For the VIX I use the following readings which are based on the daily net change values i.e., the difference between yesterdays close value and todays current value, which will obvisouly fluctuate throughout the day. But use the "Net" change value. Also, in order to get the VIX, you'll need to subscribe to OPRA. Here are the readings I use and their indications. Just keep in mind that these are rough guidelines.

Net Change Value Readings:

-.30 to + .60 = Neutral
- .31 to -.79 = Neutral to Bullish
- .80 to -1.19 = Bullish
- 1.20 and lower = Very Bullish

Now going the other way:

+ .61 to + .99 = Neutral to Bearish
+ 1.00 to + 1.49 = Bearish
+ 1.50 and higher = Very Bearish

Now, as mentioned in my post yesterday, if the TRIN and the VIX are reading in harmony and both pointing in the same direction, my advice would be don't try and fade that consensus until after the markets you follow have put in a full days range. Let the gas tank get down to vapors so to speak!;) So in other words, if the TRIN is reading 1.35 and the VIX is reading + 1.65, don't be looking to get long and trying to fade that bearishness and vice versa.

Until then, just try and (be patient and disciplined) wait for and take any TS1's,2's,3's &4's that are going with the flow of that direction. Doing this is bascially the same principal as trading with the flow of the higher time frame trend. You'll generally find that your trades will flow much better and have a higher tendency to reach their projected targets more often.

Combine these market mood indicators with the HTF trend and GO WITH THE FLOW and you'll be ok more times than not.

[Rob E]

Johan:

So for right now today as of 9:34am CST the current readings are as follows:

TRIN = 1.77

VIX = +1.25

HTF Trend = Down

All 3 are in unison/harmony and currently pointing in the same direction = Bearishness! So you wouldn't want to try and fade these readings right now, especially when they're all in sync and pointing in the same direction!!!

So for now... I'm just patiently sitting back waiting/hoping for sell side setups to develop. I'm not even thinking about trying to fade this current bearishness unless things drastically turn around. Personally, I wouldn't look to fade this until the following markets reached the following levels:

ES = 1431 area
ER2 = 765 area
NQ = 1906 area
YM = 13081 area

If the market puts in a "Trend" type day today (which only happens about 30 % of the time roughly) then the levels posted above would represent a full range day based on the current running averages.

So for me personally, I would only start considering counter-trend type setups after the markets have reached those levels or at least is starting to come into those areas or unless the internals start to reverse themselves and turn more bullish.

Hope this gives you some additional insight!

Cheers!;)

[jjc]

Yep :)

They certainly do, here is the new efs's nailing this high perfectly for a +5.3R profit - nice .........

Steve

Have you released the EFS yet, or is it still in beta?


Thanks,

j

[Rob E]

Johan:


All 3 are in unison/harmony and currently pointing in the same direction = Bearishness! So you wouldn't want to try and fade these readings right now, especially when they're all in sync and pointing in the same direction!!!

So for me personally, I would only start considering counter-trend type setups after the markets have reached those levels or at least is starting to come into those areas or unless the internals start to reverse themselves and turn more bullish.

Hope this gives you some additional insight!

Cheers!;)


Johan: Here's another illustration to convey the point

This is a very similar situation as to what you would've run into last Friday only going in the opposite direction!

Having avoided these 2 losses because the overall market mood said: "Don't Go There... at least not yet" is the same as making $$$. It all contributes to the overall bottomline. That's an extra + 2R gain to your bottomline! Don't ever get into the mindset of thinking that "Not Trading" (because you're e