US Markets: Real-time Trading

[Rob E]

Each Trade Is Just Another Marble Out Of The Bag!!!

[Matt Bowen]

I was on the phone and gave this trade away...

He said, do you think it will work? I said I have know idea, but I'll spend $350. to make $1600 any day... just tell me how many times I get to do it, ha ha :D

[tar001]

I took that one and got stopped out, I prefer the DP plays myself and made up for that loss with this! now will it bounce at this DP or continue to the big boy?
:confused:



I was on the phone and gave this trade away...

He said, do you think it will work? I said I have know idea, but I'll spend $350. to make $1600 any day... just tell me how many times I get to do it, ha ha :D

[Matt Bowen]

The trials and tribulations of Day Trading...

Well what do ya know... we get stopped out on the TS3 and then a DP puts us to the test just after that, I did not take it but at least this DP trade now has the ATR back to breakeven...

Man, all that work... Sometimes Day trading ain't easy money, one thing is for sure, there is no point in getting excited about a single trade because you just never know which ones are going to pan out.

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Tar001,

This is the first day I've look at the RT charts in several days. I had to shift my trading 100% to position trading from Daily and Weekly charts. I can't juggle 5 things at once and be effective... and Day Trading requires 100% attention (Doors closed phones off the hook ect.) It's a massive commitment...to try and do it any other way is just kidding yourself.

I see that 13000 level being tested over the next week, but for today it's a crap-shoot. Most big floor traders don't even come in on Friday's, so you've got a bunch of local cowboys on the floor firing off rounds after 12:00pm (noon) on Friday. The only play I would look for on a Friday is a trend trade. Otherwise, you are at the mercy of all these comboy traders shooting back and forth. Go back and study Friday afternoon and you will see what I'm talking about. Will we hit 13,000 today? I doubt it, you gotta have the muscle to do that and most of the muscle right now is on the way to Vegas for the weekend or playing a skins game at the club.

The best place to be right now is on the links :D

All the best,

Matt

[tar001]

Unfortunately day trading requires 200% of your attention hahah!! I think you are onto something with the eod position trading, I think the day trading can drive you nuts after awhile? long/short/long/short/long/short:confused: to me it is very hard to be disciplined with so many mixed signals
I am definitely going to start paper trading the eod signals and see how that works out. Perhaps a combination of RT and EOD would be better on the adreniline flow
have a great weekend



Hi Tar001,

This is the first day I've look at the RT charts in several days. I had to shift my trading 100% to position trading from Daily and Weekly charts. I can't juggle 5 things at once and be effective... and Day Trading requires 100% attention (Doors closed phones off the hook ect.) It's a massive commitment...to try and do it any other way is just kidding yourself.

I see that 13000 level being tested over the next week, but for today it's a crap-shoot. Most big floor traders don't even come in on Friday's, so you've got a bunch of local cowboys on the floor firing off rounds after 12:00pm (noon) on Friday. The only play I would look for on a Friday is a trend trade. Otherwise, you are at the mercy of all these comboy traders shooting back and forth. Go back and study Friday afternoon and you will see what I'm talking about.

The best place to be right now is on the links :D

All the best,

Matt

[tar001]

By the way I dont mean this as a swipe against MTP, it is as good a system as there is for trading(and trust me when I say I have tried them ALL) it is daytrading in general that I am talking about.:D



Unfortunately day trading requires 200% of your attention hahah!! I think you are onto something with the eod position trading, I think the day trading can drive you nuts after awhile? long/short/long/short/long/short:confused: to me it is very hard to be disciplined with so many mixed signals
I am definitely going to start paper trading the eod signals and see how that works out. Perhaps a combination of RT and EOD would be better on the adreniline flow
have a great weekend

[tar001]

this makes it, and then I will LOVE daytrading
hahah

[billm]

I read with interest that most large locals are gone, etc, etc.:rolleyes:

Guess what? When Bache came in and sold the S&P pit off from 13:45 to the bond close in 100 lot size (ie. 500 mini's) a dozen times 'it weren't comboys dat were buyin'.

This morning was non-farm payrolls, so the pit was FULL. ;)

Floor trading is sometimes a counter-intuitive game...


Hi Tar001,

This is the first day I've look at the RT charts in several days. I had to shift my trading 100% to position trading from Daily and Weekly charts. I can't juggle 5 things at once and be effective... and Day Trading requires 100% attention (Doors closed phones off the hook ect.) It's a massive commitment...to try and do it any other way is just kidding yourself.

I see that 13000 level being tested over the next week, but for today it's a crap-shoot. Most big floor traders don't even come in on Friday's, so you've got a bunch of local cowboys on the floor firing off rounds after 12:00pm (noon) on Friday. The only play I would look for on a Friday is a trend trade. Otherwise, you are at the mercy of all these comboy traders shooting back and forth. Go back and study Friday afternoon and you will see what I'm talking about. Will we hit 13,000 today? I doubt it, you gotta have the muscle to do that and most of the muscle right now is on the way to Vegas for the weekend or playing a skins game at the club.

The best place to be right now is on the links :D

All the best,

Matt

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Bill,

My point was that on any given Friday, you will see the place clear out after 12:00pm (noon). As for Cowboys, just because size hits the floor doesn't mean it's smart money ;)

The MTPredictor Decision Point (DP) did a great job of finding the line of least resistance and subsequently made up for the $350. loss on the TS3 trade.

[pegasus5]

I know I'll get flak from those that think trading tick charts is lunacy, but while you are staring all day giving 100% to 200% of your attention, it might just be worth perhaps 50% of that attention to searching out profitunities on tick and/or volume charts. This one in YM 89 tick today was worth 55 YM points. There were three other setups that worked on the 89 tick today...Hmmmm...Money is Money...I don't care what time frame I uncover profitunity....

Try it ..you may find you actually like it.....Good Trading, David

[pegasus5]

Just to prove that I'm not certifiable using 89 tick charts ...here is another setup around 3pm est that turned out yet another +3R gainer...

You Make The Call !!

Good Trading,

David

[tar001]

anyone else use tick charts? there are some really nice trade setups there.
mine shows quite a few failed trades but of course the winners beat out the losers by a HUGE amount:D I put the R/R on that last DP but I was not in that trade(wish I was)



Just to prove that I'm not certifiable using 89 tick charts ...here is another setup around 3pm est that turned out yet another +3R gainer...

You Make The Call !!

Good Trading,

David

[pegasus5]

anyone else use tick charts? there are some really nice trade setups there.
mine shows quite a few failed trades but of course the winners beat out the losers by a HUGE amount:D I put the R/R on that last DP but I was not in that trade(wish I was)


Again the 89 tick Cash Register Rings ...How do you spell .."Ca-Ching?"

Case closed!!

:)

[tar001]

I spell it Cha Ching but thats just me, hahaha I am totally kidding:) those are some GREAT trades and I will definitely be using tick charts on Monday
:D



Again the 89 tick Cash Register Rings ...How do you spell .."Ca-Ching?"

Case closed!!

:)

[tar001]

I was looking at this chart last night and was thinking we would be down today, I guess its always good to keep an eye on longer term charts

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Two great trades on the 5min AB this morning, +4.8R then +3.2R...:)

Steve

[tar001]

Are the EFS's ready for prime time?:D


Hi Everybody,

Two great trades on the 5min AB this morning, +4.8R then +3.2R...:)

Steve

[tar001]

hey
great call on the Tick charts, might have wanted to keep that a secret:D short and then a great long


]
Again the 89 tick Cash Register Rings ...How do you spell .."Ca-Ching?"

Case closed!!

:)

[pegasus5]

Tar,

Glad too see you did well with them today. There were many nice intra-day plays using tick charts today.

Peg

[tar001]

Hi
thanks for pointing out the Tick charts on Friday. I looked at them this weekend and there are 2 things I really like about them. #1 is that on the shorter ones(like the 89) you get way more setups in the day, there are obviously more that fail but the losses are tiny. The problem with time charts is that if you miss the one great setup for the day you might not get another chance. It seems with the tick charts you will get plenty and it keeps me from getting bored(ADD thing going on at times) #2 it looks to me that with the Tick charts the patterns are much more clear, so far so good:D




Tar,

Glad too see you did well with them today. There were many nice intra-day plays using tick charts today.

Peg

[Steve Griffiths]

Are the EFS's ready for prime time?:D

Hi

They are available under the members section of the web site for Beta testing.... so please give them a try :)

Thanks

Steve

[tar001]

Hi Steve
how do we get the unlock codes? I tried to download them and I get the license manager but when I put in my original Authorization # it says not enough digits?



Hi

They are available under the members section of the web site for Beta testing.... so please give them a try :)

Thanks

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

email admin@mtpredictor.net as it says on the download page :)

[jjc]

Hi

They are available under the members section of the web site for Beta testing.... so please give them a try :)

Thanks

Steve

Steve,

Are you referring to the new EFS that has the auto DP?

If so, I don't see it at the download site.

I'l keep looking !


j

[jjc]

Steve,

Are you referring to the new EFS that has the auto DP?

If so, I don't see it at the download site.

I'l keep looking !


j

Correction


I mean to say I also need more digits

I will email for that


j

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

A nice TS4 on the 3min NQ yesterday :)

+4.8R porfit using the ATRStop....

Steve

[tar001]

first esignal trade worked out well

[tar001]

I sure wish Ninja would work its bugs out(the delay sucks) but it is a great way to trade:D

[tar001]

this is that same trade on Esignal, using MTP rules the R/R was too low to take it



I sure wish Ninja would work its bugs out(the delay sucks) but it is a great way to trade:D

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Just to apologize if a few post go missing, we are moving to a new server so one or two posts may get lost in the move,

I apologize if this happens

Steve

[tar001]

here is an interesting way to trade on a choppy day like today, nice thing about tick charts is that you can see the patterns better:D

[jjc]

here is an interesting way to trade on a choppy day like today, nice thing about tick charts is that you can see the patterns better:D

You seriously traded that mess?

Tip of the hat, if you did !


j

[tar001]

haha I actually traded alot of it but then the Dow data went down. You not a fan of tick charts?
had a nice setup today on the Russell but there were MANY failed setups today too


You seriously traded that mess?

Tip of the hat, if you did !


j

[tar001]

then again the 3 minute isnt bad:D


haha I actually traded alot of it but then the Dow data went down. You not a fan of tick charts?
had a nice setup today on the Russell but there were MANY failed setups today too

[tar001]

as you can see the pattern on the tick chart is a easier to spot(in my opinion) now the question is should I take this long? I suppose so:D there is divergence and all



then again the 3 minute isnt bad:D

[tar001]

market seems a bit weak(after the gap up) so if anything I would look at the first DP:)


as you can see the pattern on the tick chart is a easier to spot(in my opinion) now the question is should I take this long? I suppose so:D there is divergence and all

[tar001]

alright, who jinxed me? hahah now let see if we hit this DP



market seems a bit weak(after the gap up) so if anything I would look at the first DP:)

[tar001]

bingo!!!:D



alright, who jinxed me? hahah now let see if we hit this DP

[Biggo]

Hi Tar001

Well done on your trading this week... Must admit I ve found it quiet hard going this week & have mainly been on the sidelines personally, boring but at least preserving capital. I have been waiting for some clear structures to appear but maybe next week... As Steve always tell us markets go in cycles & for me this was a week to have been fishing :D

Cheers

Phil

[tar001]

Hey nothing wrong with fishing, the hardest part of trading is sticking with your convictions. Its sometimes very hard to do as things change so quickly. I can usually make a bullish and bearish case for the same trade hahah
I am getting ready to close out this trade as anything can happen in the last few minutes
have a great weekend
:D



Hi Tar001

Well done on your trading this week... Must admit I ve found it quiet hard going this week & have mainly been on the sidelines personally, boring but at least preserving capital. I have been waiting for some clear structures to appear but maybe next week... As Steve always tell us markets go in cycles & for me this was a week to have been fishing :D

Cheers

Phil

[tar001]

great TS4 sell setup but I kept trying to go long at the DP's :confused: traing the eminis sure is challenging, it changes everyday.

[tar001]

good thing for this 89tick trade at the end of the day to make up for my earlier blunders!! there were actually 2 setups at this buy but 1 of them dropped off the chart(even though it was valid) so it took 2 trades but I still made mula:D



great TS4 sell setup but I kept trying to go long at the DP's :confused: traing the eminis sure is challenging, it changes everyday.

[pegasus5]

tAR001,

Any Charts?

[tar001]

any charts? more than the ones I put up?



tAR001,

Any Charts?

[pegasus5]

I'm not seeing any....must be problem on my side...Thanks

[tar001]

I have one of the 89tick chat and one of a 3 minute Russell. Not sure why you don't see them? :D


I'm not seeing any....must be problem on my side...Thanks

[tar001]

yikes!! I need to start proof reading these
CHART:D


I have one of the 89tick chat and one of a 3 minute Russell. Not sure why you don't see them? :D

[tar001]

by the way on a 3 minute chart,:D this should have been the only trade today. I definitely over traded. A ts4 at a DP with divergence, use the ATR until you got stopped out(but thats too easy) hahah



yikes!! I need to start proof reading these
CHART:D

[Larry22]

That's exactly what I did, I took the TS4 on the 3 minute ER charts and took profits at the big Decision Point around 808.5

My trade was based on the 15 minute charts analysis as we allready had a three wave pattern (A) down from the top followed by an X wave so we had to another three wave to make a double three for a simple A B C count on the hourly charts (Potential TS2).

[tar001]

show off(hahaha just kidding) can you post a 15 minute chart with what you were looking at so we can see what you mean?
thanks
:)



That's exactly what I did, I took the TS4 on the 3 minute ER charts and took profits at the big Decision Point around 808.5

My trade was based on the 15 minute charts analysis as we allready had a three wave pattern (A) down from the top followed by an X wave so we had to another three wave to make a double three for a simple A B C count on the hourly charts (Potential TS2).

[sullivar]

great TS4 sell setup but I kept trying to go long at the DP's :confused: traing the eminis sure is challenging, it changes everyday.

Tar

I know you are the DP master but...

One of my extra rules for taking a DP trade is that the market must rally to at least the ATR stop before considering a counter trend trade. Looking at your attached chart this would have occured approx 11:10.

[Larry22]

show off(hahaha just kidding) can you post a 15 minute chart with what you were looking at so we can see what you mean?
thanks
:)

I hope this chart can help you understand what I explained earlier.

[Larry22]

To clarify a bit more take a look at this 60 minutes chart.

[tar001]

by looking at those charts I would have been looking for longs?


To clarify a bit more take a look at this 60 minutes chart.

[tar001]

Thats MR. DP Master to you(hahaha)
which chart are you looking at?:D


Tar

I know you are the DP master but...

One of my extra rules for taking a DP trade is that the market must rally to at least the ATR stop before considering a counter trend trade. Looking at your attached chart this would have occured approx 11:10.

[Larry22]

by looking at those charts I would have been looking for longs?

Yes but to enter long the double ABC needs to be completed and if you looked at the 15 minutes chart 1 leg down was missing to complete the C.

That's why I knew that I could short that second B wave.

If you look carefully you will often see 2 abc's separated by an X wave, again if you look at the 60 minutes you only see an ABC, but a double ABC on the 15 minutes.

Once completed it was time to buy, unfortunately for me I had too much work at my job this morning so I couldn't buy the ER but tomorrow is another day. ;)

[tar001]

Ok, I got ya now. Here was a nice long setup towards the end of day:D Steve was mentioning yesterday that he thought the market might be at a high?


Yes but to enter long the double ABC needs to be completed and if you looked at the 15 minutes chart 1 leg down was missing to complete the C.

That's why I knew that I could short that second B wave.

If you look carefully you will often see 2 abc's separated by an X wave, again if you look at the 60 minutes you only see an ABC, but a double ABC on the 15 minutes.

Once completed it was time to buy, unfortunately for me I had too much work at my job this morning so I couldn't buy the ER but tomorrow is another day. ;)

[Larry22]

I too think that we are very close to a top, but again I have an hourly count telling me that we are missing the wave 5 of the C wave on the ES.

Time will tell us of we are gonna have 1 last wave up or if we are gonna have a failure of the wave 5.

If you look at all the daily indexes you will notice that they all have made a decision point, so it is getting scary to buy. :o

[tar001]

its always scary to buy! hahah:D do you ever do end of day commodity trading or do you mainly stick to day trading the index futures?


I too think that we are very close to a top, but again I have an hourly count telling me that we are missing the wave 5 of the C wave on the ES.

Time will tell us of we are gonna have 1 last wave up or if we are gonna have a failure of the wave 5.

If you look at all the daily indexes you will notice that they all have made a decision point, so it is getting scary to buy. :o

[sullivar]

Thats MR. DP Master to you(hahaha)
which chart are you looking at?:D

Mr. DP Master

It's the 3 min chart you attached to #1549

[jay21]

Hello!

Anyone looking at the 5 - min NQ Z7 now at 11.00 am EST? To me that looks like a perfect ABC but it did not trigger on my system - therefore I did not trade it. Did it trigger with someone else? If it is correct that it shouldn't trigger - anyone know why this is?

Best of trading success to everyone!
Johan

[kh_model]

I noticed on Larry22's attached 15min chart in post 1553 that there is an ABCX pattern (red) displayed along with some other standard MTP Setups (blue), and I was wondering if the ABCX pattern was drawn manually or if MTP generated it automatically. Maybe I failed to notice it before, but I have never seen the ABCX pattern show up on any other MTP charts in this forum...

[jay21]

Hello!

Anyone looking at the 5 - min NQ Z7 now at 11.00 am EST? To me that looks like a perfect ABC but it did not trigger on my system - therefore I did not trade it. Did it trigger with someone else? If it is correct that it shouldn't trigger - anyone know why this is?

Best of trading success to everyone!
Johan

By the way - I use esignal...:)

Tks,
Johan

[davidh]

Hi Jay
I didn't get any alert for NQ. Did get a nice trade on the 5 min ES TS2 long though.
Best Wishes
David

[jay21]

Hi Jay
I didn't get any alert for NQ. Did get a nice trade on the 5 min ES TS2 long though.
Best Wishes
David

Right, to me the NQ looked the nicest looking one so I was waiting for that one to trigger, but no such luck:( ... - frustrating but part of the game I suppose.

Cheers,
Johan

[Larry22]

I noticed on Larry22's attached 15min chart in post 1553 that there is an ABCX pattern (red) displayed along with some other standard MTP Setups (blue), and I was wondering if the ABCX pattern was drawn manually or if MTP generated it automatically. Maybe I failed to notice it before, but I have never seen the ABCX pattern show up on any other MTP charts in this forum...

These were drawn by me with the Ninja system, but nontheless it was easy to see on the 15 minutes charts.

One thing I also like with Ninja is the retracements and projections.

[Larry22]

Right, to me the NQ looked the nicest looking one so I was waiting for that one to trigger, but no such luck:( ... - frustrating but part of the game I suppose.

Cheers,
Johan

When you see a pattern like that just play it manually with the R/R button.
That's what I often do I wait for the blue bar and then trigger my own signal. :D

Still we had an easy one today with the E-mini, I allways take a look at the 4 indexes and try to spot the one that gives me an easy automatic entry otherwise I do it manually. :D

[tar001]

Do you think this is the last wave up that you talked about? or do you think we go higher?


When you see a pattern like that just play it manually with the R/R button.
That's what I often do I wait for the blue bar and then trigger my own signal. :D

Still we had an easy one today with the E-mini, I allways take a look at the 4 indexes and try to spot the one that gives me an easy automatic entry otherwise I do it manually. :D

[tar001]

anyone else in this one? I almost covered at the first DP but didn't:D

[Larry22]

Do you think this is the last wave up that you talked about? or do you think we go higher?

Technically we should make a new high over 1552 to complete the C wave on the december ES.

But again we have to be very carefull, there is allways a possibility of a failure, I keep a close eye on the daily charts. A big down day would allmost kill that scenario.

We have to wait and see. ;)

[tar001]

see if this one reaches:D



anyone else in this one? I almost covered at the first DP but didn't:D

[tar001]

does it get any better than that? I doubt it:D



see if this one reaches:D

[Larry22]

Technically we should make a new high over 1552 to complete the C wave on the december ES.

But again we have to be very carefull, there is allways a possibility of a failure, I keep a close eye on the daily charts. A big down day would allmost kill that scenario.

We have to wait and see. ;)

A picture is worth a thousand words, look at my hourly wave count of the ES showing the possibility of a fith wave in the C leg.

[tar001]

From my understanding you feel that will be the market top for some time to come? From a fundamental standpoint I notice more and more small stocks(and even penny stocks) are running which usually signals a market top. As they say "when the dogs are running"


A picture is worth a thousand words, look at my hourly wave count of the ES showing the possibility of a fith wave in the C leg.

[tar001]

on days like today you just have to love MTP

[Larry22]

Well, well technically the NQ has a full up count.

So we are probably at a top. Time will tell us ;)

We wil also see if the other indexes are gonna follow.

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep,

YM also...........

as I said a few days ago, we are probably at a top on the ES......... so today is going to be a very interesting day indeed ;)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Nice start to the day on the ER2.................:)

Steve

[Rob E]

Nice 5 Min. TS2 Buy Setup in the British Pound Today... was a quick and fun ride!!!:D

Closed it out at the 1st WPT since we had a DP sell setup/w reversal bar that came in right there. So I'm happy to take what it gives me!;) Nice way to close out the week!!!:) I would've posted a chart of the setup but the file is to big and it won't let me post it.:o

[TreeShaker]

I have been EOD for 7 yrs and RT for a mo. I started on paper for two weeks and went live 1 BAD day :( - 5R and went back to paper. I have been keeping careful records since 09/05 and as of this writing I'm down 14R. Every trade I take is TS1-4 that meet the guidelines. They go up approx. 1 - 2R and then turn back down. Hardly anything runs. The ones that reach 2 I have moved my stop up and break even. I have never been stopped out and then the instrument ran. I have been tracking the E-minis. Missed the DP that Steve showed because I don't trust DPs yet and want to keep things simple. Anybody having the same problem. Matt says to keep going, but if I was still live my profolio would be getting pretty flat.:confused:

[chrisg]

Hi Treeshaker,


I have been paper trading with the real time software for about a month and a half and so far my account is up about 30%. I am keeping it as simple as possible i am only looking at 3min charts of ER2 and the YM. The ER2 has a mind of its own and has good setups that the other three do not. I would recommend that you go back over the last month using only these two with 3min charts and see what your results would have been. I would also note that the last 2 weeks have not been the best but trading goes in cycles. The key is not to over trade so if you trade markets that are not as correlated you will take fewer trades and not be overwhelmed. :)


Chris

[chrisg]

I should stress that I am paper trading. Paper trading is not stressfully nor has the potential to effect your pocket book, so trading with real funds results may be a little less.

chris

[Rob E]

It certainly is very pretty to the bottomline... which is all that matters!!! ;)

So I'm very thankful 4 it all the same!!! :)

And a GR8 way 2 finish out the week!!!

All's well... that ends well:D

[TreeShaker]

:( I finally got one to run. ER2 @ 1105 PDT, 5 min chart. TS3 down. It ran to 2.4 and scared me with a blue DP, along with several other blue DPs on other charts at the same time. I closed out and it continued to 4.5:eek: At least I got some postive action, although I closed -.7 R for the day. Anybody get that run to the end or did you bail like me?:(

[TreeShaker]

Thanks for the info. Chris. I will have to go back over the charts and see if I can do better. How long do you plan to paper trade. I have added artifical stress to my paper trading by telling myself that losing is not exceptable and if I don't make a profit I can't trade live and will have to get a 9-5 job. :eek:

[TreeShaker]

Nice trade Rob E. :) I tried to get in on that trade but was too slow and missed it. A couple of others came up at the same time and I went to look at them and poof, the opportunity was gone forever.

[tar001]

so here is the bad(for me) tried to short at arrow 1 arrow 2 and arrow 3, did not go short on red arrow 4 because there was no red bar(even though I liked the pattern) the down move never reached that DP down below or I would have went long. I liked the bar pattern and was searching frantically for a DP so I could go long with some sort or calculated risk
all in all a crappy day, in fact NO clue:confused:

[tar001]

did someone say JOB? please don't use that kind of language on here(hahaha) :D
do NOT be in any rush to go live. It does not get any easier with real money, in fact it is 10X more stressful. I would suggest sticking with 1 time frame and one futures contract to start(perhaps the Russell on a 3 minute chart)
take only the TS setups at DP's as those are the highest probability until you start getting more comfortable with the system. But be assured that if you follow the rules you will make money.


Thanks for the info. Chris. I will have to go back over the charts and see if I can do better. How long do you plan to paper trade. I have added artifical stress to my paper trading by telling myself that losing is not exceptable and if I don't make a profit I can't trade live and will have to get a 9-5 job. :eek:

[tar001]

Not gone FOREVER, gone until Monday!! there is always a trade:D


Nice trade Rob E. :) I tried to get in on that trade but was too slow and missed it. A couple of others came up at the same time and I went to look at them and poof, the opportunity was gone forever.

[tar001]

I guess this is why it bounced(found support on a 15 minute chart) of course its easy after the fact:D I guess thats why Matt likes EOD trading so much. One time frame and that is not a bad thing



so here is the bad(for me) tried to short at arrow 1 arrow 2 and arrow 3, did not go short on red arrow 4 because there was no red bar(even though I liked the pattern) the down move never reached that DP down below or I would have went long. I liked the bar pattern and was searching frantically for a DP so I could go long with some sort or calculated risk
all in all a crappy day, in fact NO clue:confused:

[Matt Bowen]

I have been EOD for 7 yrs and RT for a mo. I started on paper for two weeks and went live 1 BAD day :( - 5R and went back to paper. I have been keeping careful records since 09/05 and as of this writing I'm down 14R. Every trade I take is TS1-4 that meet the guidelines. They go up approx. 1 - 2R and then turn back down. Hardly anything runs. The ones that reach 2 I have moved my stop up and break even. I have never been stopped out and then the instrument ran. I have been tracking the E-minis. Missed the DP that Steve showed because I don't trust DPs yet and want to keep things simple. Anybody having the same problem. Matt says to keep going, but if I was still live my profolio would be getting pretty flat.:confused:

Hi Mike,

Yes, my advice is to continue making the trades... the only way to come out of a drawdown is to trade your way out on the same cycle. Did you catch the 3 minute and the 5 minute setups on the Russell?

Just about the time you say the "hell with it" and go sit on the side lines to take a pass on the next few trades... guess what? They are profitable. Just like I said yeasterday, the volatility is low and that means little or no opportunity for short term trades.... it doesn't mean stand on the sidelines, it just means the cycle is ready to turm.

Day traders need to learn that the profit cycles work in 3 or 4 week swings (sometimes as long as 6 weeks or more). What this means is that from peak to trougth cycles it can be 6 weeks before the equity swings back up and you start to come out of a drawdown. I think last year I showed people (here on the boards where we traded the e-minis taking ever trade and 5 weeks out of the 7 weeks we lost money, but on the 2 weeks we did profit we made $7300. in profits on over 100 trades...and that's trading a 20k account.

This idea about making $500. to $1000. a day (day trading the e-minis) is just complete bullshit. Seriously, this is some vendor sitting behind a desk selling systems who thinks that's actually possible to do this. It's like talking to a mechanic that never picked up a wrench or got his hands dirtyo n an engine.

Bottom Line: You make money on 40% of your trades and 60% percent are either small 1-R losses and the rest are breakeven or very small winners.

[tar001]

if you look at the green arrow you will see the pivot point for this DP, anyone see this as it was unfolding?:confused: you will also see the oscillator divergence
craaaaaaaaaaaaaaaap:D



I guess this is why it bounced(found support on a 15 minute chart) of course its easy after the fact:D I guess thats why Matt likes EOD trading so much. One time frame and that is not a bad thing

[Larry22]

I will try here to explain here how I trade the market.

First, I allways look at the 60 minutes chart and try to identify the main trend and where the market can change directions (DP or TS).

Second I look at my 15 minutes charts and try to see where the market is and if there is a DP or TS.

Third I look at the 5 minutes charts or sometimes the 3 minutes and try to pinpoint the best entry point.

The best way to show you that will be with 3 charts of the NQ today in order 60, 15 and 5 minutes charts.

I had a count of 9 up waves in the C leg on the 60 minutes chart, so I was looking to sell the NQ.

By looking on the 15 minutes chart I had a nice sell DP, wow very interesting.

I went on the 5 minutes and manually placed R/R with the profit target at the DP see the 4th image.

I hope this can help some people realising that if you are in the main trend you increase your chances of having winning trades. I sold the NQ 2 times today first one near the top and second time at the TS1 all on the 5 minutes chart.

[Larry22]

I guess this is why it bounced(found support on a 15 minute chart) of course its easy after the fact:D I guess thats why Matt likes EOD trading so much. One time frame and that is not a bad thing


I had a 5 wave up count on the ER 15 minutes and on my 60 minute one leg up is technically missing that is why I didn't sell that index. I was more expecting more of a correction and that's what happened. I stopped right at the DP plus it was in the typical wave C, that's what I like with Ninja I don't know if you can project (extension)waves with the other system and I also use a lot the retracements.

See the 15 and 5 minutes charts.

[tar001]

thanks Larry, your posts are very informative



I had a 5 wave up count on the ER 15 minutes and on my 60 minute one leg up is technically missing that is why I didn't sell that index. I was more expecting more of a correction and that's what happened. I stopped right at the DP plus it was in the typical wave C, that's what I like with Ninja I don't know if you can project (extension)waves with the other system and I also use a lot the retracements.

See the 15 and 5 minutes charts.

[tar001]

Just out of curiosity why did you not stick to EOD trading? I have never tried that but am looking at starting



I have been EOD for 7 yrs and RT for a mo. I started on paper for two weeks and went live 1 BAD day :( - 5R and went back to paper. I have been keeping careful records since 09/05 and as of this writing I'm down 14R. Every trade I take is TS1-4 that meet the guidelines. They go up approx. 1 - 2R and then turn back down. Hardly anything runs. The ones that reach 2 I have moved my stop up and break even. I have never been stopped out and then the instrument ran. I have been tracking the E-minis. Missed the DP that Steve showed because I don't trust DPs yet and want to keep things simple. Anybody having the same problem. Matt says to keep going, but if I was still live my profolio would be getting pretty flat.:confused:

[jjc]

I had a count of 9 up waves in the C leg on the 60 minutes chart, so I was looking to sell the NQ.

Pardon me for asking but is the 9 waves up Elliot Wave stuff?

If so, I musta overlooked that part when I was reading up on Elliot Wave.


j

[d-day]

Pardon me for asking but is the 9 waves up Elliot Wave stuff?

If so, I musta overlooked that part when I was reading up on Elliot Wave.


j

Hi J,

If you have Frost and Prechter's book, take a look at their discussion of impulse wave extensions (p 32). While 5 waves up or down in an impulsive or "motive" manner is typical, when one or more of the impulse waves extends, then you may find a count of 9 waves, or even 13 or 17 (p. 54).

I hope you and yours are well,

d-day

[Larry22]

Hi J,

If you have Frost and Prechter's book, take a look at their discussion of impulse wave extensions (p 32). While 5 waves up or down in an impulsive or "motive" manner is typical, when one or more of the impulse waves extends, then you may find a count of 9 waves, or even 13 or 17 (p. 54).

I hope you and yours are well,

d-day

Yup exactly 5, 9 and 13 are the most common extensions.
You also gonna have quite often double or triple abc's each abc will be separated by an X wave, who can be subdivided in an abc.

Elliott Wave's count are not allways easy and can allways be left with different interpretation.

With the help of the MTP tools (DP and TS) I try to find where a wave count has more chance to end , change directon or catch a correction in the main trend. :D

[tar001]

STEVE
I think this would make a great webinar, to show a trading day in real time. Show the larger time frames and their importance and then take a live trade on a shorter MTP trade setup. Even if the trade got stopped out I think it would give people a real feel of what to be looking for(of course being a webinar you could just re record it until a trade works hahaha) actually a winning trade would be better because you could then show proper trade management. My biggest problem is if my first trade loses money I still(after all this time) feel the need to win it back and usually I end up over trading. I would LOVE to see a webinar that showed a loss 1st and then how a professional trader sits back and waits for another setup
just an idea but I think it would help alot of traders(mainly me and isn' t that what really matters?)
hahahah
:D




I will try here to explain here how I trade the market.

First, I allways look at the 60 minutes chart and try to identify the main trend and where the market can change directions (DP or TS).

Second I look at my 15 minutes charts and try to see where the market is and if there is a DP or TS.

Third I look at the 5 minutes charts or sometimes the 3 minutes and try to pinpoint the best entry point.

The best way to show you that will be with 3 charts of the NQ today in order 60, 15 and 5 minutes charts.

I had a count of 9 up waves in the C leg on the 60 minutes chart, so I was looking to sell the NQ.

By looking on the 15 minutes chart I had a nice sell DP, wow very interesting.

I went on the 5 minutes and manually placed R/R with the profit target at the DP see the 4th image.

I hope this can help some people realising that if you are in the main trend you increase your chances of having winning trades. I sold the NQ 2 times today first one near the top and second time at the TS1 all on the 5 minutes chart.

[TreeShaker]

so here is the bad(for me) tried to short at arrow 1 arrow 2 and arrow 3, did not go short on red arrow 4 because there was no red bar(even though I liked the pattern) the down move never reached that DP down below or I would have went long. I liked the bar pattern and was searching frantically for a DP so I could go long with some sort or calculated risk
all in all a crappy day, in fact NO clue:confused:

As though I didn't have enough problems, now I'm going blind. I don't see anyh arrows!:confused:

[TreeShaker]

Hi Mike,

Yes, my advice is to continue making the trades... the only way to come out of a drawdown is to trade your way out on the same cycle. Did you catch the 3 minute and the 5 minute setups on the Russell?

Just about the time you say the "hell with it" and go sit on the side lines to take a pass on the next few trades... guess what? They are profitable. Just like I said yeasterday, the volatility is low and that means little or no opportunity for short term trades.... it doesn't mean stand on the sidelines, it just means the cycle is ready to turm.

Day traders need to learn that the profit cycles work in 3 or 4 week swings (sometimes as long as 6 weeks or more). What this means is that from peak to trougth cycles it can be 6 weeks before the equity swings back up and you start to come out of a drawdown. I think last year I showed people (here on the boards where we traded the e-minis taking ever trade and 5 weeks out of the 7 weeks we lost money, but on the 2 weeks we did profit we made $7300. in profits on over 100 trades...and that's trading a 20k account.

This idea about making $500. to $1000. a day (day trading the e-minis) is just complete bullshit. Seriously, this is some vendor sitting behind a desk selling systems who thinks that's actually possible to do this. It's like talking to a mechanic that never picked up a wrench or got his hands dirtyo n an engine.

Bottom Line: You make money on 40% of your trades and 60% percent are either small 1-R losses and the rest are breakeven or very small winners.

Hi Matt,

I made that trade in your 3rd chart. A blue DP came up when it hit the 2.5R level and I chickened out and took my profit, only to see it continue down for more money. But I was happy to have the 2.5 :D

[TreeShaker]

Just out of curiosity why did you not stick to EOD trading? I have never tried that but am looking at starting

I'm Matt's poster child. I've tried everything and ran a $80K account down to $30K. On EOD I made $100 in 2 mo.s because after analyzing the mkt and deciding on the direction it was going, it would reverse. It kept landing at EOD points that could go either up or down. Use whatever you want, it was a toss. I most always took the wrong side. I thought that if I tried RT that I might see the direction easier.


So, why are you thinking of trying EOD?

[tar001]

It took disregarding the DP trade but this just reached its 1st price target(sometimes you have to go with a bit of your gut:D

[Larry22]

It took disregarding the DP trade but this just reached its 1st price target(sometimes you have to go with a bit of your gut:D

Great trade tar, I was short from that little top and reverse my position when I saw that the market didn't want to go down and that we had a TS3 buy on the 3minutes.

Well done never fight the trend. :D

[tar001]

Hey Larry
thanks, I never try to fight the trend but sometimes it fights me:) these DP's worked out well but made more sense as the run had become a bit tired


Great trade tar, I was short from that little top and reverse my position when I saw that the market didn't want to go down and that we had a TS3 buy on the 3minutes.

Well done never fight the trend. :D

[tar001]

nice start:D



Hey Larry
thanks, I never try to fight the trend but sometimes it fights me:) these DP's worked out well but made more sense as the run had become a bit tired

[jay21]

nice start:D

Hi Tar!

Nice one :) - but can I ask you - what entry signal did you use - I don't see any ABCs and the DP lacks divergence...? Do you enter DPs without divergence as well - if so when do you do this?

Best of trading success to you!
Johan

[tar001]

hey
I take DP trades all the time that don't have divergence. Here would have been a divergence long(that I did not take) I was looking for shorts and that is why I took that DP trade


Hi Tar!

Nice one :) - but can I ask you - what entry signal did you use - I don't see any ABCs and the DP lacks divergence...? Do you enter DPs without divergence as well - if so when do you do this?

Best of trading success to you!
Johan

[jay21]

hey
I take DP trades all the time that don't have divergence. Here would have been a divergence long(that I did not take) I was looking for shorts and that is why I took that DP trade

Hey that is interesting. So basically you decide on the direction, and I suppose you feel that is the most important factor, ie the trend. And then you take all DPs in that direction with our without divergence... Do you make any difference between DPs with and DPs without divergence in your trading?

Actually I think that sounds very interesting - I myself feel that I commonly end up trading against the direction I really want to trade just based on the fact that I don't find any good setups in that direction (ie DPs with divergence...)....

Thanks for a good tip!:)

Best regards,
Johan

[tar001]

Don't feel too bad I usually find myself trading against the trend but every now and then I have a feel for it :D of course the highest probability trades are DP's with divergence so if you are strictly trading by the book you would not take the trades I post(probably any of them hahah) the hard part on days like this is that the YM seems weak while the Russell seems strong, it is easier when they all move in tandem.


Hey that is interesting. So basically you decide on the direction, and I suppose you feel that is the most important factor, ie the trend. And then you take all DPs in that direction with our without divergence... Do you make any difference between DPs with and DPs without divergence in your trading?

Actually I think that sounds very interesting - I myself feel that I commonly end up trading against the direction I really want to trade just based on the fact that I don't find any good setups in that direction (ie DPs with divergence...)....

Thanks for a good tip!:)

Best regards,
Johan

[tar001]

here was another way I was looking at that, on a 5 minute the trend was down and it bounced up the the DP and if you look at that red bar that I put the R/R on it looked to me that it was headed back down



Don't feel too bad I usually find myself trading against the trend but every now and then I have a feel for it :D of course the highest probability trades are DP's with divergence so if you are strictly trading by the book you would not take the trades I post(probably any of them hahah) the hard part on days like this is that the YM seems weak while the Russell seems strong, it is easier when they all move in tandem.

[jay21]

Don't feel too bad I usually find myself trading against the trend but every now and then I have a feel for it :D of course the highest probability trades are DP's with divergence so if you are strictly trading by the book you would not take the trades I post(probably any of them hahah) the hard part on days like this is that the YM seems weak while the Russell seems strong, it is easier when they all move in tandem.

Exactly - I really agree with what you say at last there. Today I ended up shorting the Russell at the open, I was looking for shorts because this is my market view for today. The Russell was the only one with a DP short signal, because it was the strongest one...

Now I am long the YM because there was a DP with divergence - and the YM is the weakest one today.

So I feel one commonly ends up shorting the strong and buying the weak working with the DPs with divergence.... Not exactly the thing one really wants to do...:(

Do you have any thoughts on that problem?

Cheers,
Johan

[tar001]

oops try this one


here was another way I was looking at that, on a 5 minute the trend was down and it bounced up the the DP and if you look at that red bar that I put the R/R on it looked to me that it was headed back down

[tar001]

Do you find yourself on the wrong side of the trade everyday? if so could you post your trades in real time so we can go opposite? hahahah I am just kidding. I make the same mistakes as everyone else in trading(it is VERY tough) but as Steve says if you keep your losses small and let your winners run you will be fine over time. I am not sure how long you have been trading but it takes time to develop a real feel and then to convert that feel into making money.


Exactly - I really agree with what you say at last there. Today I ended up shorting the Russell at the open, I was looking for shorts because this is my market view for today. The Russell was the only one with a DP short signal, because it was the strongest one...

Now I am long the YM because there was a DP with divergence - and the YM is the weakest one today.

So I feel one commonly ends up shorting the strong and buying the weak working with the DPs with divergence.... Not exactly the thing one really wants to do...:(

Do you have any thoughts on that problem?

Cheers,
Johan

[jay21]

Do you find yourself on the wrong side of the trade everyday? if so could you post your trades in real time so we can go opposite? hahahah I am just kidding. I make the same mistakes as everyone else in trading(it is VERY tough) but as Steve says if you keep your losses small and let your winners run you will be fine over time. I am not sure how long you have been trading but it takes time to develop a real feel and then to convert that feel into making money.

Yeah, it is quite difficult isn't it..., but I think one should at least be very careful with shorting the contract that is relatively much stronger than the others on the day, and on the other side of things buying a relatively very weak contract. This is what I learn from today's action...:)

Cheers,
Johan

[tar001]

here is where it DIDN"T work:D


Yeah, it is quite difficult isn't it..., but I think one should at least be very careful with shorting the contract that is relatively much stronger than the others on the day, and on the other side of things buying a relatively very weak contract. This is what I learn from today's action...:)

Cheers,
Johan

[tar001]

And here is playing by the rules DP WITH divergence


here is where it DIDN"T work:D

[jay21]

here is where it DIDN"T work:D

Yeah, and one of the problems is that the Russell has been the strongest all day... Compare with the action in YM, the spike up is really weak in comparison.

Tks,
Johan

[tar001]

lets see how weak it really is:D probably pushing my luck here


Yeah, and one of the problems is that the Russell has been the strongest all day... Compare with the action in YM, the spike up is really weak in comparison.

Tks,
Johan

[tar001]

of course it could find a support here, thtas why this not always as easy as it appears to be:confused:


lets see how weak it really is:D probably pushing my luck here

[jay21]

of course it could find a support here, thtas why this not always as easy as it appears to be:confused:

At least you're not stopped out yet in the YM...:D Could be a new short DP happening on the other contracts here...

[tar001]

hey
I actually did get stopped out at 14120 so I made a small profit. as I said that DP could act as support so I moved my stop right above it after it broke below(if that makes any sense) hahah:D


At least you're not stopped out yet in the YM...:D Could be a new short DP happening on the other contracts here...

[tar001]

sad thing is if I did not get stopped out it actually reached the DP in question


hey
I actually did get stopped out at 14120 so I made a small profit. as I said that DP could act as support so I moved my stop right above it after it broke below(if that makes any sense) hahah:D

[jay21]

hey
I actually did get stopped out at 14120 so I made a small profit. as I said that DP could act as support so I moved my stop right above it after it broke below(if that makes any sense) hahah:D

Well, good for you - profit is always nice:D

[jjc]

Hi J,

If you have Frost and Prechter's book, take a look at their discussion of impulse wave extensions (p 32). While 5 waves up or down in an impulsive or "motive" manner is typical, when one or more of the impulse waves extends, then you may find a count of 9 waves, or even 13 or 17 (p. 54).

I hope you and yours are well,

d-day


D - Day,

Does this new found knowledge in Elliot Wave and measured move stuff mean you made that $20k so you can fly us there and go eat at Peter Luger's ?

Heck, we're not proud, I'll even go to the Brooklyn, N.Y. location.



Ditto to you and your family

j

[d-day]

D - Day,

Does this new found knowledge in Elliot Wave and measured move stuff mean you made that $20k so you can fly us there and go eat at Peter Luger's ?

Heck, we're not proud, I'll even go to the Brooklyn, N.Y. location.



Ditto to you and your family

j

Brooklyn! We're from Da Bronx, Hoss!

No new found knowledge here - I'm an amateur Elliotician at best. That's why I posted the page numbers - 'cause Mr. Prechter could explain the 9 wave thing better than I. By the way, Prechter, aka Permabear, has been recommending EWI customers maintain "fully leveraged short positions" since August 26 according to Club EWI and www.elliotwave.com. OUCH! Nothing like being short for about 100 S&P points to bring about your very own private "sub-prime crisis" lol.

Still working on that 20k month. One of these years I'll get there.

d-day

[Rob E]

I'm taking a beat'n on the sell side so far today!

Down - 3R...:(

Not understanding where this phantom strength is coming from since the internals are not overly bullish, actually they're mostly neutral right now!

Have been all day, neutral to bearish!

If this 5 min. TS3 Sell on the YM doesn't pan out, then chalk up me for a -4R on the day!



Each Trade Is Just Another Marble Out Of The Bag!!!

[Larry22]

Nice ABC TS3 in the 5 min NQ this morning.

I allready sold 3 at 2134 and have 2 more in bank waiting to be stopped at the ATR. :D

Picture will follow later.

[Rob E]

To Steve, Tony, Matt etc.,

You guys would absolutely bless my socks off if you could come up with some way or develop some indicator that could reduce the number of successive stop outs as seen in the chart below during the pattern completion phase at the WPT's.

I'm sure I'm far from the only one who has ever felt the frustration of this kind of situation of ... pop, pop, pop, consecutive and successive losses like this all within a very short period of time and all on and within the very same setup! It's BRUTAL... is about the best way that I can put this kind of situation!!!

Maybe this post could serve as a poll as to who would like to see something like this done in future upgrades or even as an add on. Maybe if we all put our heads together we could come up with something. Even just cutting out 1 of those losers in succession like that would certainly help the overall bottom-line.

Any thoughts and suggestions at how to eliminate those kinds of situations would most certianly be welcomed!

Looking forward to any and all input!

And thanks much in advance!!!

[jay21]

I'm taking a beat'n on the sell side so far today!

Down - 3R...:(

Not understanding where this phantom strength is coming from since the internals are not overly bullish, actually they're mostly neutral right now!

Have been all day, neutral to bearish!

If this 5 min. TS3 Sell on the YM doesn't pan out, then chalk up me for a -4R on the day!



Each Trade Is Just Another Marble Out Of The Bag!!!

Hey Rob!

I feel you pain as well, also shorted the YM, although I shouldn't really had according to my rules as I really should have demanded more from the VIX...

Still, what makes me a bit wary to take the short side is the 15 min NQ which has the appearance of an ABC, also to me it looks like the YM for instance had gone above its long term DP area, so generally the market looks strong...

"Never fight the Fed" I suppose...

Best trading wishes to ya!
Johan

[Rob E]

Hey Rob!

I feel you pain as well, also shorted the YM, although I shouldn't really had according to my rules as I really should have demanded more from the VIX...

Still, what makes me a bit wary to take the short side is the 15 min NQ which has the appearance of an ABC, also to me it looks like the YM for instance had gone above its long term DP area, so generally the market looks strong...

"Never fight the Fed" I suppose...

Best trading wishes to ya!
Johan

Thanks Johan... maybe it's about time that I put my own advice (that I've shared with you) to use ay? Remain flexible and don't get stubborn on one side vs. the other??? :D

Well, hopefully, if this 5 min. TS3 Sell on the YM pans out, I won't have to worry to much about the flexibility for now. But if it doesn't, I'm definitely gonna be forced to start considering switch hitting and start looking for buy setups and give the sell side the BOOT!!!

[Larry22]

Hey Rob!

I feel you pain as well, also shorted the YM, although I shouldn't really had according to my rules as I really should have demanded more from the VIX...

Still, what makes me a bit wary to take the short side is the 15 min NQ which has the appearance of an ABC, also to me it looks like the YM for instance had gone above its long term DP area, so generally the market looks strong...

"Never fight the Fed" I suppose...

Best trading wishes to ya!
Johan

It is not allways easy to find the trend and go in the right direction, but one thing I can say is allways try to take the best trade available (clearer).

If you look at the NQ today you will notice that you had the nicest ABC pattern to buy tha A wave allmost equalled the C wave and it had retraced to the 50% level, so for me the best trade was to buy. On a daily basis I expect the market to climb up to his DP 2766 on the cash.

The ES had also an ABC with the 50% retracement, so for these reason I was a buyer this morning instead of a seller.

I have 2 22 inches monitors on my PC with 3 open charts of each index for a total of 12 so I can see all the indexes in 3 different time frames 5,15 and 60 minutes with most of them having count waves retracements and projections.

I analyze my charts and decide which one seems to have the best pattern to take a trade.

I hope this can help you.

[jay21]

It is not allways easy to find the trend and go in the right direction, but one thing I can say is allways try to take the best trade available (clearer).

If you look at the NQ today you will notice that you had the nicest ABC pattern to buy tha A wave allmost equalled the C wave and it had retraced to the 50% level, so for me the best trade was to buy. On a daily basis I expect the market to climb up to his DP 2766 on the cash.

The ES had also an ABC with the 50% retracement, so for these reason I was a buyer this morning instead of a seller.

I have 2 22 inches monitors on my PC with 3 open charts of each index for a total of 12 so I can see all the indexes in 3 different time frames 5,15 and 60 minutes with most of them having count waves retracements and projections.

I analyze my charts and decide which one seems to have the best pattern to take a trade.

I hope this can help you.

Yeah - thanks Larry, very helpful!

If I understand you correctly you speak about the 15 min NQ having the clear pattern right?

[Steve Griffiths]

Brooklyn! We're from Da Bronx, Hoss!

No new found knowledge here - I'm an amateur Elliotician at best. That's why I posted the page numbers - 'cause Mr. Prechter could explain the 9 wave thing better than I. By the way, Prechter, aka Permabear, has been recommending EWI customers maintain "fully leveraged short positions" since August 26 according to Club EWI and www.elliotwave.com. OUCH! Nothing like being short for about 100 S&P points to bring about your very own private "sub-prime crisis" lol.

Still working on that 20k month. One of these years I'll get there.

d-day

yep, now you now why I developed my own "isolation approach", because these so called "experts" were wrong so often ;)

Steve

[d-day]

To Steve, Tony, Matt etc.,

You guys would absolutely bless my socks off if you could come up with some way or develop some indicator that could reduce the number of successive stop outs as seen in the chart below during the pattern completion phase at the WPT's ... Any thoughts and suggestions at how to eliminate those kinds of situations would most certianly be welcomed!

Looking forward to any and all input!

And thanks much in advance!!!

Here's an iron-clad solution that will elminate any and all trading losses, including those like you experienced today ...
















Stop Trading!




Another solution, though not nearly so effective as my first suggestion, would be to wait for a confirmed swing high for shorts or a confirmed swing low for longs before entering the trade - but in giving up some risk you will also be giving up a proportionate share of the reward as well.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Rob,

Here is your answer, the very next trade is alraedy well over a +4R profit...... immediately cancelling your 3x-1R losses in one go and putting you back in profit !

Seriously, this is what trading is all about, yes you will get losses, and yes sometimes there can be 3 in a row, BUT by keeping them small and under control it does not take a lot to get you back profitable again.

This was a perfect example of how this one LARGE profit immediately wiped out 3 small losses and even put you back in profit again. This is professional trading, and something that is not understood by the vast majority of traders....

Steve

PS, the tarde is still going as I write ......

[scooper]

:) Just got stopped out on the NQ 5 min long TS1 setup. My first trade live for a long time. Anyone else in sympathy losing on that one or are you all still short the YM trade Steve G just posted

[scooper]

Strangely I do not have a little green triangle on the screen on my Esignal chart for that stop out. Anyone else got the same?

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Even though we had a few false starts I feel that the short side has the better potential today (at least at the moment)............... looking to run the YM short a little further and see where it goes.

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Got to call it a day there so comming out of this TS3 short trade now at almost +6R profit............ see chart below.

But do you all see how by having a system where the profits are much much greater than the losses, you make money overall.

Even with Rob's -3R losses earlier and Scopers -1R loss on the NQ long trade, this +6R profit makes money "overall", and that is what is so important. It is about the destination and not the journey. Here we had a few bumps but came out on top overall, this is what is important and is so hard to learn, losses can and do happen, and yes they can hurt but being safe in the knowledge that they are small and safe in the knowledge that generally the profits are much larger than the losses is what you should focus on.

Do not take losses personally. trading is not personal, it is about making money.

We all make losses, it is just that the professional traders make losses "better" than the amateur. In that they are kept small and do not affect their judgement or ability to take the next trade........

A good days education here on what it means to be a professional trader....;)

I hope this helps ......

Steve

[tar001]

really? seems like it hit support on a 15


Hi Guys,

Even though we had a few false starts I feel that the short side has the better potential today (at least at the moment)............... looking to run the YM short a little further and see where it goes.

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

yep, that is why I was only running "a little further".....:)

I just cant type and post as quickly as I would like to take account of how the market is unfolding ;)

Steve

[tar001]

never mind, it looks like you were right the first time:D


yep, that is why I was only running "a little further".....:)

I just cant type and post as quickly as I would like to take account of how the market is unfolding ;)

Steve

[scooper]

We have a buy just coming in on the 3 Min NQ. Its also at a DP from the low of this AM. However, looks like the R/R will not work out unless this next bars a small one:D

Also this is a 15 Min Manual DP level also

Scratch that just blew through it and out the bottom!

[tar001]

Things do unfold quickly in trading thats for sure. IF this support fails are we headed for the big one(DP)?
:D



never mind, it looks like you were right the first time:D

[Steve Griffiths]

never mind, it looks like you were right the first time:D

I still have a "gut" feeling we have further to fall but I have to leave the office so cant monitor what is unfolding....

Steve

[scooper]

Setting up on the ES DP 5 min as well. This one looks a better setup though. Pity we don't have a trading room so those who real-time it could talk

Anyway, heres the chart - divergence me thinks?

[scooper]

Things do unfold quickly in trading thats for sure. IF this support fails are we headed for the big one(DP)?
:D

Maybe....let wait and see?

[tar001]

looks like that support held, somewhat figured that it would as this market never REALLY sells off(from the gut) :D lets see how this unfolds



Maybe....let wait and see?

[scooper]

True, but I'm just short the AB 5 Min at 831.3 I hope that support is tested again......

[tar001]

tough thing here is we are at support on the ER 15 minute as well probably not going to go down much
so I will just scalp(shhhh)
hahahah:D



looks like that support held, somewhat figured that it would as this market never REALLY sells off(from the gut) :D lets see how this unfolds

[scooper]

Well ended up B/E on that one have been nearly 2R in profit. Looks like the support held.

-1 R for the day for me (plus a bit of commission).

[pegasus5]

To Rob E and Members:


Rob,

Sorry to read that you struggled today on the short side and the reasons why the market kept edging higher matters not. There are days when a trader can do no wrong and others when he can do nothing right. That is trading...If you can't stand the heat , then get out of the kitchen. As David Day says in a previous posting..."STOP TRADING"

MTPredictor offers a proven "winning" methodology with low risk to high reward setups. Are the setups winners all the time? Of course not....but over a large series of trades, statistically will be profitable, assuming proper risk management through position sizing.

Just don't whine to the developers about improving the software to reduce the number of false or in this case "early" signals. ( YM 5 min TS3 Sell)

As a friendly suggestion, you might consider using various trading tools that may assist in "filtering out" potentially early signals that may fail to produce a winning trade. There are many ways and tools available to traders to accomplish this task. If you are clueless as to what type of filters are out there, then send me a private e-mail and perhaps I can be of assistance.

It truly sounds as though you were having a particularly rough time trading before the YM TS3 signal even fired, and getting stopped out was the straw that broke your camel's back...and you lashed out at the MTP folks.

There is one phrase that you must learn in trading if you are to survive this game...and that is .."Thank You Sir...May I Have Another". Which simply means that with consecutive losses, you must get back in the trading game and take the next valid setup, no matter how hard it may be following a string of frustrating losses....

As Nike says..." JUST DO IT"

Good Trading,
David (aka pegasus5)

[AndyvB]

David: Your post was well stated
Andy

[scooper]

Commenting on the consecutive losses.......

Personally, I have an issue with this (its my head that's the problem rather than MTP) and you have to have the faith and carry on with the next trade. I am almost all the way through Van Tharps Peak Performance Course which has helped me a lot. I'm just starting to trade again now and yesterday I actually missed that trade that you got 3 stops on because I was walking the dogs. I got back a 2 bars after entry and it took me quite a lot not to go in and increase my risk against my plan!

You might want to try the Van Tharp course as it may help you too. Its all to easy to stop trading after those consecutive losses and miss the winner by not taking the trade again.

This is the hardest profession in the world especially if you have had success in other areas of your life before because you have to be wrong so often!

Personally, with that particular entry there was not a lot to filter it out that I know of but maybe some of the professional traders can post there ideas on this area so we could improve our trading abilities.

And, I saw a post talking about the VIX.....can anyone point us to a post on this as I am not sure what this is?

[Steve Griffiths]

well said Scopper, David and Andy.

Too many so called Gurus and sales people in this Industry make out "how easy" trading is, and how you will just make money easily with no effort. That is Bullshit, and just shows they are not traders themselves. We at MTPredicor are appalled at the rubbish that is taught by so many so called experts. This just leads to a false impression what successful trading is all about. I wish there were some way to control this and to stop these people filling new traders heads with all this rubbish that is just designed to get sales and not teach people how the markets really work.

It is no wonder so many people find it hard in the early days because they are sold so much "miss information" that they are totally unprepared for what in means to trade as a professional.

So I don't blame the trader, I blame the Industry, telling people the wrong things. You don't get that at MTPredictor, as we have all been trading for over 20 years and tell you all (from from the start) that you will have losses and yes trading is not easy.

I guess it just takes time for people to see that we are teaching you the way it really is (no bullshit) and are not like many other companies that promise riches, a high number of winning trades, or all the other rubbish that is designed to give you a false impression of trading life....

The only way to gain your (our customers) respect is to tell it like it is and then show you what needs to be done to make it in the "real-world"

Steve

PS, It was only 2 stop outs on the 5mIn YM, before the final winning trade, so not as difficult as we all thought....

[Eddo]

Hi all,

I thought the last few posts on this link have been interesting because 4 me it seems some MTP traders are allowing their heads to get in the way.

I have posted results in the past but unfortunately the result of that was that I was bombared by questions (mostly I noted from people who hadn't event paid for the software) - so please note I do not propose to get into detailed PM's etc but I do hope that this might help those who have been struggling a bit lately.

The story is in the attachment - Jan - Sept 2007. This is not rocket science its just a matter of sitting there, taking the MTP trade setups, using a minimal amount of common sense, sticking to your rules and NOT allowing a loser to run for more than 1R

The results speak for themselves - please note I only win 42% of my trades, the other 58% lose! - but despite that, look what happens if you do it as set out in para three above.

Keep its simple, and if you don't believe this (I care not either way) do the Van Tharp marble game a couple of hundred times and I promise you will become a believer.

End of broadcast ......... good luck all

Chris

[scooper]

Hi Chris

What you have said is correct (we have been letting our heads get in the way but that's a problem 95% of traders have). Your metrics prove the system expectancy so we know we can win over time. However, I have (as has Steve and Matt BTW) managed to lose money at some stage and blow out accounts. It is the very few who make it and are able to trade with rationale that will make it in the end.

My head has been in the way for a long time and that's what Van Tharps course helped me with / is still helping me with. For £635 it will save me thousands. I sympathise with what some are finding hard but it our conditioning to be right all the time that's at fault and its almost natural not to want to lose. If you don't have this in you and you can just do it off the hook you are blessed.

BTW. My Mrs is a great trader but she finds it so boring just doing things by the book that she needed to meet people etc that she went back to work and left the hard stuff for me:D

[scooper]

Just filled on this one at 14051. Lets see where we go from here

[Eddo]

Hi Chris

What you have said is correct (we have been letting our heads get in the way but that's a problem 95% of traders have). Your metrics prove the system expectancy so we know we can win over time. However, I have (as has Steve and Matt BTW) managed to lose money at some stage and blow out accounts. It is the very few who make it and are able to trade with rationale that will make it in the end.

My head has been in the way for a long time and that's what Van Tharps course helped me with / is still helping me with. For £635 it will save me thousands. I sympathise with what some are finding hard but it our conditioning to be right all the time that's at fault and its almost natural not to want to lose. If you don't have this in you and you can just do it off the hook you are blessed.

BTW. My Mrs is a great trader but she finds it so boring just doing things by the book that she needed to meet people etc that she went back to work and left the hard stuff for me:D

Sadly, like you I'am not blessed and like you I have losses - loads and loads and loads ......... like you I bought the Van Tharp course and also found it very helpful - the point I was trying to make (which I know you understand) is for those worried about losses, dont be - just get over them and move on ....... but do keep them to 1R losses - not doing that has ALWAYS been the source of my failures in the past

Like you I have just been filled on an SPX DP short (shouldn't really have taken it cos there isn't any divergence but it is hanging around a typ WPT as well as the DP and the STF is red so giving it a go) :eek:

[tar001]

anyone else in this or is everyone else short?:confused:

[Matt Bowen]

Chris,David,Scooper and Steve...

All excellent notes... thanks for positing. I happen to be scrolling the BB this morning and I saw the Chris Eddison posted something and I said... whoa, gotta back up and read that one.

As I sat here reading all of the notes I said to myself, these are professionals, but the average trader reads this and he can't relate to it because he constantly bombarded As Steve says: "with the wrong message" and he's right there is so much bull-shit out there I have a hard time even reading some of the trading publications anymore.

Let me explain:

Yesterday, I read my Stocks and Commodities magazine along with my Futures, Active Trader and SFO and all of these are funded or fueled by the advertising... take the ads away the ads and the magazine will go out of business.

In any event, I sat there reading through all the ads and I'm saying to myself... ok, 95% of traders blow-out and lose money, we all know this, but look at the ads...it's heard mentality...nobody is talking about risk management, you would think these morons would wake up and smell the coffee. I mean, most of these vendors can't trade to save their own ass, but they will gladly sell you their Account Draining System or (whatever they sell).

Sheldon Adelson (Forbes 3rd Richest Man in the World for 2007). When Sheldon Adelson was asked by High Net Worth's Christine Tan, "At the age of 74 you're a self-made billionaire and Forbes has ranked you the 6th richest man in the world. How do you do it? What's your success?"
His response was "....The answer is very simple, I don't do things the way other people do it. If I go into a particular industry or discipline or business and I would say to some practitioner in the business, Why do you do things the way you do them? They invariably say, because I've always done it that way. When I hear this, then I know there is an opportunity."

Do you notice how we don't talk about high percentage of winning trades? Do you know why? Because it's bull-shit. Ask any trader whose making consistent profits (month over month) what his winning percentage is, I guarantee you it's not over 50%.

Ok, we all know there is a load of crap being sold out there in the trading world when it comes to trading software but most new traders don't know this and won't know it until they have blown out a few accounts or realize that there system has a negative expectancy.

Each week we send out e-mails on money management stuff..do you think I do it because I'm ripping people off??? Far from it, it's too much work. If I wanted to rip people off I would come up with some crafty message like: "nearly 90% winners". Next, post banner ads all over the web to see how many suckers I could bring in, now that's exactly what I see on most financial websites"

The problem is most people don't realize that this industry is like a gigantic circus. When you got to the circus you see mostly clowns and very few serious acts...why is that? Because people want to be entertained. It's the same with Las Vegas, people go there to be entertained...you want proof? The buildings are built by people who understand RISK and they have about a 2% advantage over the customer on all games combined...so as long as the customer continues to play guess what? The house keeps the guest entertained because they know the longer they play the more they make.

What's my point?

There are two ways to trade, you can't be entertained and have your money taken from you (trying to get a high percentage of winners) or you can learn to play the game like a professional and quit worrying about how many stupid winning trades you have.

But the first thing you need to do is learn position sizing and how it effects your account...this is the number one difference between winners and losers at trading.

http://www.iitm.com/products/Trading-game.htm

Cheapskates need not apply... don't come back and say you are not going to spend $200. to learn this information... if your trading is not worth $200. then do me a favor go back to the circus and listen to the clowns. Trading is a business, not a circus act.

So, if you want to get serious...start by reading the attachment below written by Van Tharp.

I might sound like a "drill sergeant" but believe me, those who listen to my words will be reward very well. I'm a bastard to work with, but you will be very happy with the results because I won't settle for anything less.

My very best to you,

[scooper]

Yep my trade is taking ages to get anywhere. But has just traded at 100% risk so have moved stop to B/E.

This one is free now (commission accepted).

Your comment on keeping losses to 1R is the only thing that keeps us in the game. Without that its easy to blow an account in no time at all. And if you've done Tharp you will know that the more you loose and the less you have in the account the more you tend to risk. I did that last time out (pre Tharp) and had a 15% loser that I never recovered from.

Lets hope this goes to target soon as I have to go and collect the Mrs and its a long drive (be out for an hour and a half). This where I will be taking profits at target if the YM gets there. Using OCO's which are a piece of cake with NT.

Cheers:)

[Rob E]

It was never my intention to give the impression that I was whining to the MTP crew and if that's the way it came across, then my apologies to the staff. I am very happy with the MTP product and especially with the service/support of the staff, you guys truly do go the extra mile and it's greatly appreciated! Was I venting over the moment and trying to assuage the frustration over the situation? Absolutely... but that has no reflection in my mind on the product or the crew... and it was never intended to come off that way either!!!

Maybe I'm sadly mistaken, but one of the benefits (that I thought were an integral part) of this forum (which I consider a family... a family of fellow traders) was to be of assistance to one another during the tough times (that we all go through) and to help pull each other out of and through those tough times, i.e., those moments of frustration... that again... happens to every one of us and that we all go through!

None of us are immune to those types of situations and if we can't vent those frustrations to our family... (our family who is supposed to know how it feels, what we're going through and can relate all to painfully well because we've all been there)... then who can you vent too??? And again, venting to me has no reflections upon MTP, staff or product... because no methodology or product out there is immune to false signals or their resulting frustrations either. There is no perfect system, product or methodology...but MTP in my book is about as close to perfection as I've come across, when considering the overall product + the staff's commitment to excellence and support!!!

Understand this too... I have no problems whatsoever with taking losses as that's just part of this business and there's just no getting around that. I fully understand that and appreciate that make no mistakes about this! Like any business, taking losses is part of the expense side of the ledger. So for me, taking losses is not an issue.... NEVER HAS BEEN.... NEVER WILL BE!!!

But I also think and believe that taking multiple losses on the very same setup is somewhat senseless. Almost like beating ones head against the proverbial stone wall! In a perfect world (for me anyways) there would only be 1 loss associated with any 1 setup. That one didn't pan out so...no fuss... no muss... you then just move onto the next setup. Maybe I'll provide my own solution here and limit entries to only those that have reached the TYP. WPT and those only! At least then, if it does stop out, and moves beyond, then that setup is no longer valid anyways!

I'm sure every one of us would love to be able to reduce the overall number of false signals that happen to any trader, using any system or methodolgy. All I was looking for when making my post were simple suggestions that other traders may use in accomplishing that very purpose while using the MTP system and methodology. And again, that by no means has any reflection whatsoever on MTP, the product, the staff or anyone else.

Any trader or business person who doesn't try and explore any and all opportunities to increase and expand their bottomline, won't be in business for very long. So each and every false signal that can be removed, (even if it's just 1 per any setup where it happens) the better for all!!!

We're all in this together people!!! So instead of looking at a family members post through a critical eye... may I suggest looking at it through a helpful eye!!!:)

Thanks again and my best wishes to all!!!

[scooper]

anyone else in this or is everyone else short?:confused:

Already short the YM and I find it hard to take more than one real time trade at a time. A better setup looking on the AB 3 min now though

[Mrbaffalo]

Are you ATR following? I'm looking at the same trade, now ATR is just a few ticks below the entry price
MB

[scooper]

Yes I followed the ATR on that one as I have to go out now for about 1 1/2 hours, in fact I just got stopped out at 14046. I was watching it trade and just had that feeling so I thought I better use the ATR. That's not strictly in the rules but only time will tell. I have a very small profit which is not ideal but its better than a kick in the nads.

It will probably drop to target now in 2 bars:D

[tar001]

it finally did reach but you definitely played it right, anyone in this? the Russell is fugly today!! not following any of my rules:D



Yes I followed the ATR on that one as I have to go out now for about 1 1/2 hours, in fact I just got stopped out at 14046. I was watching it trade and just had that feeling so I thought I better use the ATR. That's not strictly in the rules but only time will tell. I have a very small profit which is not ideal but its better than a kick in the nads.

It will probably drop to target now in 2 bars:D

[tar001]

market not going to give much today, I guess we are range bound until tomorrows jobs data comes out.



it finally did reach but you definitely played it right, anyone in this? the Russell is fugly today!! not following any of my rules:D

[Eddo]

it finally did reach but you definitely played it right, anyone in this? the Russell is fugly today!! not following any of my rules:D





Iam still short the SPX (S&P500) on a spreadbet trade - currently with a very small gain but letting it run on a OCO with a target of 1536 (went short at 1541.5) -

[scooper]

Yes, market not going anywere I agree.

I'm glad to see respected posters like Chris posting their trades. Do you have a chart of the setup Chris?

I missed a TS3 NQ 3 Min entry while I was out but it seems it would be stopped out B/E.

[scooper]

And the trades that just setup DPs etc seem to be spikey bars and so the R/Rs are not good. Definetely a hard day:cool:

[Eddo]

Yes, market not going anywere I agree.

I'm glad to see respected posters like Chris posting their trades. Do you have a chart of the setup Chris?

I missed a TS3 NQ 3 Min entry while I was out but it seems it would be stopped out B/E.

Hi - yes I do and believe it or not Iam still in this trade at 20:05 UK time - about 3:05 US is guess

Its been like watching paint dry and I really shouldn't not have taken it but here it is

BTW - its on a 1.2R gain at the moment - yo ho :)

[tar001]

anyone know what time the markets open today?(hahah) watching paint dry is about right
:D


Hi - yes I do and believe it or not Iam still in this trade at 20:05 UK time - about 3:05 US is guess

Its been like watching paint dry and I really shouldn't not have taken it but here it is

BTW - its on a 1.2R gain at the moment - yo ho :)

[scooper]

Hi - yes I do and believe it or not Iam still in this trade at 20:05 UK time - about 3:05 US is guess

Its been like watching paint dry and I really shouldn't not have taken it but here it is

BTW - its on a 1.2R gain at the moment - yo ho :)


Yes, nice one. Took a while to get there. I sometimes see that a DP trade without divergence would have worked out. Interesting to see that you looked at SPX and saw it at wpt resistance and decided to trade. I do not have a chart of the SPX running, maybe I should look into that.

A DP trade just came up on YM but its one of those creeping down markets and I'm loathed to enter it on a marginal basis.

The R/R on that one is also 1.9 so not good, although looks like it might make it now.

[scooper]

And as I write it reaches the opposite DP level at 1.9R/R.

Still pat myself on the back as I traded by my rules - eg, I did not trade it!:)

[scooper]

Well with 8 mins to go I'll wrap up for the day.

Total today (Thu) is +0.4R.
Total (Wed) was -1R (half a day trading only)

Running total this week (started trading again yesterday after taking a break doing Tharps course) is -0.6R.

Time to grab some elevenses;)

[scooper]

Well, Not a lot doing on auto setups today. I was looking for the ABC correction to the opening high and listening for the alerts.

In hindsight, if I had not been so lazy I could have been in this trade which was a manual DP on the AB 3 Min. Doh!:mad:

[tar001]

Yeah you could have tried to short it here too(I didn't as its obvious this market is going much higher) never short a market in an election year:D


Well, Not a lot doing on auto setups today. I was looking for the ABC correction to the opening high and listening for the alerts.

In hindsight, if I had not been so lazy I could have been in this trade which was a manual DP on the AB 3 Min. Doh!:mad:

[Mrbaffalo]

I'm following the same trade, nice setup, at the same time i'm following daxfuture...
Good WE to all!!!:)

[scooper]

Yep, might have tried that but as I was looking for the rally I had gut feeling it would end in tears. Didn't take that short but nothing to do with an election.:)

I was looking for a DP continuation trade but I have to brush up on them as that would have got me in I think.

And I have to go out tonight (I'm Uk based) and may not be trading later. If I'm not back may the +many Rs be with you.:D

[Mrbaffalo]

Stopped out on YM for a 3.8R. Nice friday! :eek:

[davidh]

Well, Not a lot doing on auto setups today. I was looking for the ABC correction to the opening high and listening for the alerts.

In hindsight, if I had not been so lazy I could have been in this trade which was a manual DP on the AB 3 Min. Doh!:mad:

Hi Scooper,
I was waiting for an ABC long off the open on the 3 min AB too. I unchecked the ABC Time symmetry and retrace limit boxes in edit studies (eSignal) and the TS3 appeared.
Best Wishes, David

[tar001]

anyone in this one?

[tar001]

wow! always keep your eyes on the tick charts. Look how