US Markets: Real-time Trading

[d-day]

I have a suggestion, and I would like to hear what other MTP users think of it. It wastes too much time to go and grab the "automatic set-ups" thread everytime someone starts a new thread on top of it.

Steve, could you start a new folder for US Markets - Real-time set-ups? That way we can always just pull up the real time trading thread without having to hunt for it.

Thank you,

David

[d-day]

Yesterday crude oil reversed from a DP with divergence on the hourly chart. That initial decline looks to have been corrected during the overnight, and we have a TS1 on crude's hourly chart. Be aware that the inventory numbers come out today at 10:30 and that number usually results in volatility that could shake you out. I'm staying flat, though if we drift lower, I might nibble on the short side. I'd prefer to wait for any post-report volatility to subside, and then trade this market with a bias to the downside unless yesterday's high at 62.25 (62.275 mini-crude) is taken out convincingly.

[AndyvB]

I think it is a good idea David...the other post is anyways getting too long and a US Markets post would most likely have again the most posts in it. Good Idea!!

[d-day]

TS3 sell on the 3 minute NQ.



Never mind, I just got stopped out - that sure made quick work of me!

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

After my comments in today's report that a "bounce" was likely today I was on the look out for any low risk long trades, and I liked the look of this 3min DP on the AB (Er2).

Past the first DP target and on the way to the second :)

Steve

[d-day]

Now if only we could convince Steve to post in real time also!:D

[qitrader]

Nice trade!!

My 3/5 show an ABC Long in the making. Worth a look!!!

Qi

[d-day]

Although my one loss to day was a short NQ trade, I am still suspicious of the long side without a test of yesterday's low. I feel more comfortable waiting for price to reach DP's right now.

That being said, there are long TS2's and TS3's going off all over the place!

[qitrader]

The setup is more clear now on the ER2. But as David said, this seems like a high risk trade since major trend remains down. Sometimes, we have to focus on "What is and not what if"

Good trading

Qi

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep, I agree, that is why I said a "minor bounce" just as short-term traders who were short from yesterday take their profits, so I too an cautious about the long side as the day unfolds.

I suspect we have had our bounce and the AB long was it :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Now if only we could convince Steve to post in real time also!:D

Well if I did that, then there would be no need for the software ;)

I do my best to try and teach you all what I look for by my many posts and my daily report. I just hope all this info helps you all to become better traders and spot some of the things I do ..............

Steve

[qitrader]

I got in at 793. We'll see if it can go to Steve's next DP level.

Qi

[Steve Griffiths]

I would keep a close eye on that one and get to break-even as early as possible as a quick reversal is always a possibility on days like this......

Steve

[qitrader]

Currently at Break even stop since it reached more than 100% of initial risk. I will reverse trade if another setup (short) triggers.

Thanks for the heads up Steve,

Qi

ps. Normally, lunch hours are easiest to report trades since market allows plenty of time to get in/out. In the morning, it is harder to notify of potential setups in real time since price action move so fast and many pros are unable to post trades.

[d-day]

I'm short the YM at 12315 on the TS3 - I reduced my risk to .66R on the trade.

[d-day]

I know I'm not supposed to do this, but I bailed when I hit 3x's my initial risk, which would be 2R if I had traded full size. I may regret it later, but sometimes I like to ring the register, as they say.

[qitrader]

AHH The itchy finger. :) Nice job David

Still trailing and now it is profitable. You never know how far this is going to go.

Qi

[qitrader]

Stopped out at 796.1

[d-day]

Well, that turned out to be a good decision. What was not a good decision was to be away from my desk making my afternoon double espresso when the next YM short was signalled on the 5 minute chart.

That turned out to be a $1300 cup of coffee!

I wonder if Starbuck's delivers?

[qitrader]

David,

That happens to me all the time. Missing great setups like that. At least you did the right thing to bail out at the right time on the YM short.

Qi

[qitrader]

Another ABC long in the making on 3/5min. Just a heads up!!!

Qi

[qitrader]

Rocketing. In at 795.3. Hope some of you are onboard.

Amazing day with all the ABCs on the ER2.

Qi

[d-day]

I have some non-trading business to attend to this morning, so I'l be coming to the party late. Don't be too greedy ... save some profits for me:) .

[pegasus5]

Well, first trade of new month results in nice +5R gain in ES..Caught the 5 min DP Entry 1388 Exit 1399 :)

[d-day]

Beautiful trade, Pegasus. I had been hoping to make it home before the SP's made it down there. So much for that!

Congratulations ... Let the games begin!

[qitrader]

Awesome trading !!!

I caught a DP on ER2 using my 60min and timed it with 5min to keep my risk small relative to reward. Only 3.2R. This week is a daytrader's dream.

Good trading

Qi

[qitrader]

Possible Short on ER2. Seeing divergence.

Qi

[d-day]

Long the Naz @1575.25 on a Stevenson PTT trade set-up. I'll post a screen shot in a few minutes - Stop already at breakeven.

[qitrader]

I'm short ER2 from 790.4

Qi

[d-day]

Stopped out at breakeven. This may still turn out to be a good set-up, but I'm giving the market a very small leash today. The failure to hold a test of the thin blue trendline usually, but not always, results in a losing trade. Also, I am trading at 2/3'sR. For me R is typically 1%. I set my MTP R/R calculator to .66% until I get accustomed to the increased volatility.

Also, what is not shown in the screenshot is that thee is a DP target at the level of the SPTT.

[d-day]

Trying again. This time using the bottom of the DP as the Target.

DP and SPTT co-incide.

[d-day]

Moving stop to 1754.75 (the ATR stop). I'll allow one more test of my entry point as support (but it better hapen soon) and then I'll move to breakeven.


UPDATE: Stop now at breakeven. There is now no reason to lose more on this trade than my commissions.

UPDATE: I have a market order "locked and loaded," so to speak, to close this position at will.

UPDATE: Stop at 1758 - 1 tick below last reaction low (trading this on a 1 minute chart).

UPDATE: STOP at 1759.75 - I may end up getting stopped out early, but again, this is a short leash day.

UPDATE: Stop 1761.25

UPDATE: I'm out with 2.2R (based on the R for the trade. Probably got myself out too early. The ATR stop would have kept me long. I will be watching for a DP short if the NQ makes it to the DP target.

[Mrkooks]

David ... that chart you posted was poetry. What a beautiful picture!


Nice return on your trade entering where angels fear to tread.

Great post!

[qitrader]

Stopped with .1R.:(

Qi

[d-day]

Well, I should have used the ATR stop, which is what I usually do on this particular type of trade set-up, it would have been good for an additional
$105.00.

Oh well, let's se where we go from here.

[pegasus5]

Nice work David...I'm keeping a low profile midday. I don't usually trade off of 1 minute charts, but of course, one must be flexible if there is opportunity.:)

[qitrader]

Shoulda Coulda woulda but nice to see big profits on the ER2 if it was trailed with the ATR stop. Oh well. Next time.

Qi

[d-day]

I use one minute charts 1) when I'm skittish and want close control over a trade and 2) when I'm already in a trade off of a 3-5 minute chart in a strong trend and I'm looking to add positions.

Today I'm skittish, as I would hate to be caught on the long & wrong side of a 200 point downdraft.

I've attached a screenshot of the NQ chart showing new SPTT's to the downside. The set-up was not nearly so clean as the first. However, according to Stevenson, should the market fail to reach the long STPP and its concomitant DP target, then there is increased liklihood that the lower target will be reached. Note that this target also co-incides with a DP target!

[d-day]

Oops. Here's the screenshot.


Disregard the Risk/Reward entry and stop #'s. I must have had the R/R button on while I was drawing on the chart. They mean nothing.

[d-day]

Do you see what I see?

[d-day]

Short the NQ from 1771 - Stop at BE with a market order to close "locked and loaded" and againI will fire at will.

[d-day]

I'm out at 1770 - the 3 minute NQ looks suspiciously bullish right now.

If that's a bull flag, this thing could trade up to 1789.25 before its done for the day. A break below 1767 without a quick recovery would put a bearish spin on things, and perhaps target the DP below.

[pegasus5]

That's exactly what I'm monitoring..Pinheads should be back from lunch..so action should pick up into close...

[d-day]

I'm short NQ long ES.




Nope - stopped out of NQ at BE (1767) long ES from 1408 on the TS2

Stop on ES moved to 1408.50. The recent volatility and not having been at my screen from the open really have me feeling off-balance today. Besides, we have traded above 100% risk at this point. No reason to let this trade turn into a loser.

UPDATE: Stop moved to 1409.

Update: Call me a coward, but I market ordered out and somehow managed to get a fill at 1411. 3 SP points/contract will have to do. I need a couple aspirin, a nap, and perhaps a defibrillator.

[pegasus5]

I hear you...aside from ES trade, I've done nadda, zip, zilch...but I'm fine with that...I'm working on my "Patience". I'll be cutting out early today..other committments to attend to...Good forum exchange today....Going to refresh batteries..see you all tomorrow

David

[qitrader]

Well my last trade where I failed to pull trigger was the DP short on ER2 around 3pm with confirmation. Looking good and might be a hold. Oh well. Till Tomorrow.

Good trading all,

Qi

ps. lots of opportunities this week. I am very pleased with the volatility coming back.

[d-day]

Wow, this is like 1999 all over again. By the ime I get my order typed in, the market has moved well beyond my entry point. Twice today the market hit my profit taking objective before I hit my enter key to get in!

[qitrader]

Pretty nasty action. Down -1R

Qi

[d-day]

YG (mini-Gold) trade today - I wasn't paying attention, however, so I missed this one. I was too busy figuring out how not to get chopped to pieces by the indices.

Still, this is an interesting chart, and these projections were quite easy to make in real time, had one been paying attention. I didn't even have the gold chart open. Otherwise, MTPredictor would have alerted me to the potential reaction pivot high. Using standard MTP Trade management would have kept you short for 4R gain.

[d-day]

DP long trade on the 1 minute chart fired at the same time as the TS4 onthe 15 minute. I know 1 minute charts tend to be noisy, but with this much volatility, if you are nimble, you can do well - right +2.9R and at my profit objective, and ready to market order out at a moment's notice.

[d-day]

Here's the chart, stop is now 12,186. Just broke higher on the bull flag you will see forming on the screenshot.

The R/R calculation on the chart was the second position on this move.

I did not add on the third bull flag.

Update: Stop moved to 12191

Update: Stopped out at 12191 (12190 was the low os that swing on the 1 minute). Maybe I should have used the ATR.

Update: This time I did better trailing stops under 1 tick unde reactions than had I stayed long withthe ATR. You never know.

[d-day]

Potential DP Long setting up on the YM 3 minute



Also at DP Support on the the 15 minute.

[d-day]

I won't fire until I see a colored reversal bar (that's coloured for you, Steve):rolleyes:






Ok, I'm long from 12147, stop at 12123 - and I'm managing this on the 1 minute chart.


As I have for most of this week, in addition to my stop loss, I have a market order ready to go, and I will exit at will.




Update: Ok, I'm moving my stop loss to breakeven. After surving that last little blip down, there is no reason to lose anything more than commissions on this trade if price turns south.

Update 12154 stop loss

Update - Out at 12154 for .33R - hardly worth the white-knuckled angst of buying on a strong decline like that, but it beats digging ditches.

[d-day]

Does anyone else se that we look to be in a wave 3 of 3 rally on the 1 minute YM? We're finding resistance here at a DP target, but with no divergence, implying this may be a pause before continuing rather than a reversal. But we shall see. If we get back above the DP point, or if we get a nice bull flag, I might be tempted to be long.

[d-day]

Ok, I'll go long back above 12174 with a tight stop at 12168.


Update: Ouch

[d-day]

I should have gone long at 12134 off the double bottom at 14:17.

For those psychology of trading fans out there: I realized that I should have been long at 14:17 by 14:18, and I forced this trade because I hate to see a rally from such an obvious entry point when I'm not on it. If I had been long at 14:17, I probably would still have made this trade to add to an existing position, and the stop on the whole position would have been 12168. However, I never should have entered in no man's land in the absence of a real clear chart pattern or an MTP set-up without already carrying an existing line with a safe cushion of profit.

That being said, this probably will not be the last time I chase a trade because I missed an obvious entry point.

[Todd Morgan]

Tricky day...good trade, bad trade...good trade, bad trade. I'm glad it's friday.

David, very interesting to watch your thought process. We should figure out how to do this in real time via chat application.

Todd

[jjc]

Try using Yahoo Instant Messenger with Voice.

Super easy to do, after you download Yahoo IM all you need is a mic and you guys can talk live to each other and exchange charts within seconds.

Best of all it's free.

http://messenger.yahoo.com/



Good luck with that.


j

[kbednar]

David...just curious as to why you torture yourself trading the 1 minute chart?

[d-day]

Short answer: To make more money - no torture is involved.

Had you just asked in a more civilized, respectful, and intelligent manner I would have posted a longer answer, along with annotated charts of actual trades that I have made, from which you too may have learned how to maker more money.

As it is, this will be the only time I ever directly respond to you.

[AndyvB]

Obviously David feels comfortable with his trading style (incl 1 min charts) and it seems to work for him. Congrads. I think many (most) of us can only learn from David and I admire him for posting so often about his trades. Thank you David for doing this, and for those who do not have MTP software, get it because you too can do well too!!! And you do not necessarily need 1 min charts to be successful! By the way I am just a happy customer just like David.

[pegasus5]

Hi Guys,

Given the increased numbers of MTP Forum members recently, it seems to me that only a very small minority contribute very valuable useful, near realtime trading commentaries such as what David Day writes. I want to send out a very public THANK YOU to David for his tireless and educational contributions.

What makes this forum so unique is the diverse trading styles from its members, from which each and everyone of us should find educational at the very least.

As to kbednar's commentary: My belief is: If you don't have anything constructive to contribute to this forum, then refrain from making any comments at all. I don't recall ever reading a commentary from kbednar...

As point of fact : Here is breakdown of # of commentaries for David Day and Kbednar respectively....

David Day : 196

Kbednar : 1

This statistic says it all!!!!

Kbednar....If you are going to comment, try adding some insight to your trading style and what works for you, so the entire forum can benefit. Don't be making potentially inflamatory comments regarding someone else's style.

What works for one trader may not work for another, BUT, all traders should be interested in learning various strategies from those willing to wear their trading methods on their sleeves such as David Day for all to benefit.

Again, thanks to David for all his insightful commetaries.

[jjc]

As previously stated...




personal note to pegasus5 and davidday,


keep up the good work on posting your 'before the fact' trades.


us tom, dick, and harrys' appreciate you holding our hand


j

[tombtrader]

I would have posted a longer answer, along with annotated charts of actual trades that I have made, from which you too may have learned how to maker more money.
Hi David Day
I for one would love to see annoted charts. Your previous posts have been very instructional and appreciated.

[d-day]

While the trades off this chart were not MTP set-ups, the MTPredictor risk/reward module is an integral part of the way I trade these set-ups.

[jands]

Thanks David for insights to your style!

Jim

[tombtrader]

Very floor trader like David. Thanks.

One question! How do you calculate the reward part of the r/r and do you reject trades for low r/r based upon this criteria?

[jswin]

While the trades off this chart were not MTP set-ups, the MTPredictor risk/reward module is an integral part of the way I trade these set-ups.

Regarding the questions you've annotated. I cannot clearly determine which bars correspond to the times you've mentioned, but here's a crack:
12:54 - if this refers to the area where the previous minor reaction pivot is being tested (from about 12:25), we may consider going short when price exceeds the bottom of the piercing bar with profit target at the double bottom support level?
I can't see the bars clearly enough or the second question.
Please let me know how wrong I was.
Thanks, Joel :)

[d-day]

Very floor trader like David. Thanks.

One question! How do you calculate the reward part of the r/r and do you reject trades for low r/r based upon this criteria?

I use the MTPredictor r/r module to quickly give me the entry and stop-loss price and position size. The profit target I use is the most recent prior high (for long trades) or most recent prior low (for short trades).

I usually will not take a trade where thee is less than 1:1 risk to reward at a reasonable profit target unless I am adding to an existing profitable position.

I posted a chart of the YM back on 2/13-2/14 (though I haven't been able to find the exact post) where a TS3 would have had you long off the 3 minute chart. I added as price formed bull flags at subsequent MTP WPT's, and on adding these positions, I used the next highest WPT as the profit objective. As price rose and positions were added, the r/r numbers became increasingly slim. However, as that particular rally was strong, and we were obviously in the midst of a trend day, and I already had profits on existing positions, I added and used the ATR to get me out when the trend day topped.

[d-day]

Regarding the questions you've annotated. I cannot clearly determine which bars correspond to the times you've mentioned, but here's a crack:
12:54 - if this refers to the area where the previous minor reaction pivot is being tested (from about 12:25), we may consider going short when price exceeds the bottom of the piercing bar with profit target at the double bottom support level?
I can't see the bars clearly enough or the second question.
Please let me know how wrong I was.
Thanks, Joel :)

Hi Joel, I know the screenshot is small and tough to make out the detail, so you can always pull up a one minute chart from 3/2/2007 and look at those two bars. I'll post what I did at those bars after the close today.

HINT: If you can see the detail clearly enough, look closely at those bars that I refer to as piercing bars, and then compare those bars I refer to near the end of the chart.

I've posted a screenshot the zooms in on the bars in question.

[d-day]

It looks like we're again going to open lower, so I have a red horizontal line on all of my 1 minute charts drawn at the point of fridauy's cash session close, i.e. the futures price at the close of the 4PM bar.

[d-day]

YM struggling to fight its way back above a an hourly DP point.

The market may not be so kind as to fill the gap back to Friday's close for us. Best risk/reward entry points occur after the gap is filled, especially if price manages to exceed the gap by a few ticks.

If the gap is filled, sustained trading above the gap and then I assume a more bullish bias, and will change the color of the red horizontal bar blue, indicating to me that it now is assumed to be a support/buying zone until breached to the downside. Failure to trade above yesterday's close on a sustained basis keeps the horizontal line red, it I assume for my trading that it is a resistance/sell zone. Of course I have seen the market fill a gap only to range narrowly around the prior close and whipsaw me to death.

[d-day]

TS1 Buy on the YM 1 minute has WPT's that put filling the gap likely.

[pegasus5]

Good Morning,

I'm Long YM off the 1 min TS1 signal...Let the Games Begin!!

[d-day]

Now short the YM at 12114, stop is all the way up at 12145.

We'll see what happens.

[pegasus5]

YM..Bot @ 12088..Sld 12140...Quick on the trigger this morning tioll I get a better "feel"...

[d-day]

Well, what do you, it looks like we a have rally on our hands. At least on the YM. Now, does yesterday's close hold as support if we get a retest.

[pegasus5]

Well, my "itchy finger" caused me to give up additional gains..Oh Well!..That's Trading....Let's see how she setups now...

[d-day]

ER2 & SP's back under prior lows, YM and NQ still above.

[d-day]

Wow, I should have stayed long instead of stopping and reversing - I managed 5.6R on that TS1 and then managed to lose 1.5R going short and adding to my shorts too early. That TS1 ultimately ran fro over 10R!

[pegasus5]

Interesting..We haven't seen any "automatic setups" on higher timeframes..3 / 5 minute charts yet...So focusing on micro timeframes such as 1 minute do provide profitable trading opportunities. Since I don't normally trade this time frame, I was a bit "trigger happy" and didn't maximize profit opportunity, although it was profitable trade in YM.....

One quality of successful traders is the ability to adjust to current environment...I suspect many are having difficult time...

[d-day]

Getting choppy, and the markets are not all in sync with one another. Its time to be cautious until the picture clears up.

[d-day]

Measured move and SPTT targets 1400+/- on the SP's.


Time is of the essence here. After 11:22 AM, these targets should not be used as reasons to enter new longs.

[pegasus5]

It appears that STF has turned Blue for YM only..Perhaps there is a "flight to quality" underway...That's where I'm focusing my Long Bias today...but won't be stubborn..just some random thoughts while I hunt for next trade

[d-day]

Here's the ES J7 showing the measured move target, the STPP target, and the Entry bar with RR. If it gets to my target, the reward will be nearly 8R - I'm ready to market order out at any moment.

[d-day]

Both YM and ES are heading toward overhead DP point.

MM and SPTT target 12265 on he Dow, which is above Friday's high (which is also Thursay afternoon's last hour high, I believe, which could be very bullish short-term for the YM if it gets that high (I'm not holding my breath).

[d-day]

Decisions, decisions. TS3 sell on the ES 3 minute right now.

Stay long or go short? I wish I had two accounts right now!

1390.25-50 may be the line in the sand

[d-day]

Ok, I curled my toes and stayed long. My stop is 1389.50. That will give me 2.3R if stopped out.



Ok, I heard my stop get hit as I was typing the above. I'm out of my ES long.

[gkinlaw]

(newbie) I took the TS3 trade, looked good after a perfect abc up into a DP.
started with 2 contracts, out of one now and trailing the 2nd.. (I am on a simulator until I get my wings)

[pegasus5]

New job catching the DP gkinlaw...

[d-day]

potential 3 minute bear flag on the ES. Anyone short on the TS3 at 11:18-21?

[d-day]

there she goes ... had I been smart and taken that TS3 that bear flag would have been a logical place to add to the short position. Time will tell whether or not that would have been a good place to do so.


ES needs to get below 1384 to keep the decline's momentum.

[qitrader]

Hi all,

No trades for me but currently a good looking ABC in the works on the 3 and higher timeframes. Might be worth to watch.

Good trading Qi

[qitrader]

I was refering to ER2

[d-day]

ER2 looks like a bear flag, but it may form a bull flag off this very small advance off its recent low (looking at the 3 minute chart). There is a TS3 buy in force (STF red, however), so this should be an interesting point - do we begin another rally leg, or does the market take the down escalator?

[qitrader]

I am long 767.3

Qi

[d-day]

The Problem with Trading too Many Markets is that you miss some good set-ups like this DP long w/STF divergence on the ER2(AB) one minute chart off of which you could have grabbed a quick 3R.

I have two friends, each of whom trade one market each - one trades nothing but natural gas, the other trades only the ER2. They each make obscene amounts of money month after month.

One of these weeks I'm going to pick one market and trade only that market -follow it tick by tick and see how it goes.

[qitrader]

Stopped out at BE.

Qi

[qitrader]

David,

That is what I do. I only trade ER2. The main reason I don't look at the other markets is because I know I will miss trades. For day trading, you need to be fast at pulling the trigger, and if you miss just 30s of it, you are out of the game and become an spectator. Very good point!

Qi

[kbednar]

WOW.......Do not get the wrong idea fellow MTP traders ......I have nothing but respect for any one who tries to daytrade. I especially applaud David for his insightful views. I wish him and all traders the very best of luck no matter which time frame you decide to trade. Each trader will eventually figure out for themselves which timeframes are worth trading and which are not.

Once again, I wish all MTP traders the best of luck. I hope to join the forum in a positive way in the future, as time permits. Any future posts from this trader will be strictly market condition related.

[d-day]

Of course I have seen the market fill a gap only to range narrowly around the prior close and whipsaw me to death.

Look how the YM has been slithering around either side of the prior close since pulling back from this morning's rally.

[qitrader]

Potential DP long on ER2. Might also be a failure pattern. I'll be in both when I see trigger.

Qi

[d-day]

Any future posts from this trader will be strictly market condition related.

Questions are fine - I know I've posted many and I will continue to do so. I'm still learning new ways to incorporate MTPredictor into my trading. But there's a right way and a wrong way to ask.

Example:

If you ask "Why do you trade 1 minute charts?" This implies that you feel there is, perhaps, too much noise on a one minute chart, but that you are open minded enough to see if someone could point out instances where trading a one minute chart is sound. You may still disagree with the soundness of the practice after hearing the response, and that's fine.

If you ask, "Why do you torture yourself trading 1 minute charts?" This implies that you think I'm a nut, and that you already have your mind made up as to the soundness or not of trading 1 minute charts, and therefore the question was more about my mental fitness than trading for profits.

So I would not want to be responsible for discouraging anyone from asking questions - we all benefit when questions are asked.

So ask away, in addition to our highly experienced, intelligent, and generous host - Steve Griffith and the MTPredictor team, there are good number of smart traders here to help one another.

[d-day]

This is amazing! Another AB J7 DP on the 1 minute for 3R+ in 14 minutes!

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep I agree,

There are lots of very very good traders here, so it is very kind that they take the time to help out others, so I very much appreciate seeing all these posts and informed discussion as well :)

I also like the way the good traders among you incorporate my MTP techniques into your own style of trading, and everybody is different here, so we can all learn form each other :)

Here is an example from my side today, a nice ABC rally stopping right at WPT resistance for a standard TS3 sell................. a nice set-up, nice tarde and a nice profit of nearly 2x the initial risk

But we are all differnet - and that is what makes the world go round and provide volume in these markets.........

So well done to all of you. just keep those initial risk small and under control and you will be OK......

Steve

[d-day]

I'm not a salesman. I am a very happy MTP user.

And that being said - for all of you spectators out there who are trading but doing so without MTPredictor, what are you waiting for? I have had trades were I lost more that the cost of the software. The last time that happened was before I started using MTPredictor.

In fact, my worse day since starting to use MTPredictor was a -4R day. Not one of those failed trades was an MTP set-up. In fact, not one of those trades was a legitimate set-up of any kind. It was a narrow range day and I had an itchy trigger finger and everytime I fired I shot myself in the equity.

My best day? I won't tell you that. I will say is this: I'm a former stock and commodities broker. I've known a few winnng traders and many, many losers over the years. If you trade using MTPredictor inteligently, and if you use the risk/reward module to size and place all of your entries and stops, and if you also learn to recognize a few simple continuation patterns, and then use the risk/reward module to pyramid your positions on trend days by entering at those patterns, you can join the ranks of the happy few rather than the miserable many.

If you are just starting out, then consider MTPredictor part of your start-up costs. The risk/reward module alone is worth your own weight in gold. The DP module is worth again as much.

[d-day]

BTW DP sell on 1 minute AB - might we go three for three? (In my case 1 for 2 since I missed the first set-up).

[d-day]

Almost at 2:1 and I'll market order out at a moment's notice.

You can't make this stuff up!

[d-day]

I'm out with just under 3R. I know the STF peaks were a little off on that one, but what can I say. I got excited.

[pegasus5]

Today is an excellent example on 1 minute ER2 (AB) to have profited nicely just utilizing DP Divergence methodology. Three (3) trades all profitable. In days with trading ranges like today with no definable trend to hang onto, I add a Moving Average Envelope to define upper and lower trading bands.

I'm keeping a watchful eye for trading range opportunities with 1 minute timeframe as I wait to catch the next "Train Trend".

[d-day]

That's a beautiful chart, Pegasus.

BTW, a potential DP buy setting up on the ER2 again.





Update: STF just made a lower low with price. I'd step aside at this point.

[garciaal]

All you guys are awesome!

Can't wait to get back home to get started.

Thanks, Alex

[d-day]

Long trade on ER2 would have made the DP 4 for 4. That last little dip before the rally ended the oscillator divergence and kept me out. Too bad, but rules are rules. Usually.

Just trading between DP's on the ER2 and closing out at a 3R profit would have given +9R today on the trades confirmed by divergence on the 1 minute chart or +12 R had you taken all 4 trades at DP's.

If you are trading 1% risk that's a potential 9-12%, if you are a cowboy trading 2% risk, that's a potential 18-24%.

Not bad work if you can get it.

I'm still trading .66% and as my equity grows I'd like to cut that back to .5% risk/trade. But even at lower risk, it's still not bad for a day's work.

[d-day]

YM is at a DP buy point w/divergence - too bad so late in the day. I don't play after 4PM, so I'm out and done.





Update: Stf just made a lower low, thus this is not a confirmed set-up.

[pegasus5]

Good day all-in-all. I went 3 for 5 today. Interesting that my two losers were NOT mtp setups...Since I started out the day with little feel for the markets, I end the day with the same lack of feel.

Even without that "feel", I still came away a winner. Maybe I should lose the feel more often..LOL

Enjoy the evening..great exchange today..very helpful..

[CapTech]

Great work David,
I have used 1 minute charts with MTP from the begining but in a different way for scalps and to lower risk on normal setups. Comments made on using 1 min or tick charts are welcome. Matt had some creative things to say about the futility of such short charts before but alas his voice is not being heard.......Jim

[Todd Morgan]

Excellent commentary guys...much more interesting board when they are lot's of participants.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

We don't care what time frames you trade, as long as you make money :)

As experienced traders you are all doing very well........... but we (at MTPredictor sales) have to deal with less experienced traders on the sales side, and I think you will agree that traders who are new to day-trading should stick to the longer time frames until they get good at what they are doing.

1min charts can be great and produce some good profits, but you have to be quick ;)

We just don't want new traders thinking that they have to tarde 1min charts straight away, much better to use longer time frames until they become more experienced, like you guys ;)

Makes sence ??

Steve

PS, But I do enjoy seeing what you experienced traders do with these MTP stuff (and more advanced set-ups) - pretty amazing - so again very well done and thank you for sharing this with us all......

[jjc]

Personally, I prefer to use Esignal's 'seconds' chart instead of 'minutes' charts to 'zoom' in on a trade.


They are much cleaner and you don't have to be an advanced trader to use them.




j

[pegasus5]

Being an avid aviator, I have come to utilize "checklists" to make sure I have completed various tasks before, during, and after a flight. With this is mind, I was updating my personnal MTP Trade Setup Checklist, which is based upon the various videos that our gracious host Steve has tirelessly created for our education.

I have just condensed those videos into checklist format for my daily use. Sometimes in the heat of the trading day, you may "think" there is a vaild setup and take the trade, only to get stopped out....and when reviewing this trade, it becomes crystal clear that is wasn't a valid setup afterall....Then you get mad at yourself for taking such an obvious "invalid" setup.

Does this sound familiar? Well if it does, then you are not alone, because I have done exactly that, taken invalid setups. I then decided to create a checklist to help guide me when evaluating a setup.

I have included his checklist for MTP'ers that may be encountering the same issues that happened to me. This checklist may only serve as an initial guide, and I strongly encourage members to review the excellent videos on the various trade setups that Steve has created for all to learn from.

Good Trading,
David

[qitrader]

Hi all,

I have attached a chart where you can see the strong correlation between the ES (brown), NQ (cyan) and ER (Green) for the past month on a 5min. If you were to trade all three with a 2% risk and you were wrong, you would be down 6%. The opposite is also true but with a 38% winning ratio, the latter is most likely to happen. IMO, I would reduce the risk to .5-1% of equity. Just something to be aware of to those that trade all three markets.

good trading,

Qi

ps. I've been daytrading CL and ER2 as they are non correlated and keep my risk the same across these markets. If they were correlated, then I would reduce the exposure to half.

[d-day]

Good point about correlated markets. Once I have a position in one of the four indices I trade (ER2, ES, NQ, YM) I will not take the same side position in any of the others. I will at times be long one and short another.

[d-day]

I tried to get long the ER2(AB) at 768.60 but market moved faster than my fingers could type.

[d-day]

Lots of bull flags forming, but that gap has me leary of playing the long side on shallow pullbacks.

At the same time, the market has been so oversold, I was too chickedn to fade the gap for a short trade.

[d-day]

ES, NQ, YM have each broke above there respective 3 & 5 minute bull flags. Er2 is lagging on that score. I'm still flat.

[d-day]

The flags have obviously failed as breakouts thus far have devolved into sideways congestion patterns. There is a TS3 buy on the NQ 3minute right now.

[d-day]

TS3 on the 3 & 5 minute YM. I skipped the NQ, but I will trade the YM off the 3 minute if the market takes me in. Entry 12120, with a 12104 stop loss, for a $75/contract risk (not including commissions).


Well, I'm in ... time to just sit back and enjoy the melodies.

Update: Well, that wasn't very enjoyable. I didn't even have a chance to settle back in my chair!

[d-day]

Still looks like a valid TS3 Long. I'm once bitten twice shy today, however, with that outstanding gap sitting like a magnet under my stop-loss. Usually I'd take a second bite, but I'm standing aside on this one for now.

[jands]

Hi David and everyone,

Ya'll have been so good about helping out and posting on the forum I just wanted to throw in my two cents worth about things that I have observed and try to trade by. (BTW I am still learning a lot.)

This morning until about 10:30 EST each bar on the 3 and 5 min timeframe spent a good deal of time retracing. Each bar had significant retracement by each successive bar. When this is happening, at least for my trading style, my failure rate goes up a great deal. And I have learned, and still learn on occassion to stand aside and wait for things to clear up.

At 10:30 was the beginning of a move that was much clearer and for an aggressive trader allowed for a possible entry on the 1 min timeframe at 11:00. Depending on which indicator you would use to show divergence.

So for me if each bar is being retraced a good percentage, (over 50-60%), I stand aside and wait for things to clear up.

Hope this helps,

Jim

[Todd Morgan]

David,

Do you notice any PTT's on any of your charts today? I'm trying get a feel for these. Appreciate any input.

Thx

[d-day]

Hi David and everyone,

Ya'll have been so good about helping out and posting on the forum I just wanted to throw in my two cents worth about things that I have observed and try to trade by. (BTW I am still learning a lot.)

This morning until about 10:30 EST each bar on the 3 and 5 min timeframe spent a good deal of time retracing. Each bar had significant retracement by each successive bar. When this is happening, at least for my trading style, my failure rate goes up a great deal. And I have learned, and still learn on occassion to stand aside and wait for things to clear up.

At 10:30 was the beginning of a move that was much clearer and for an aggressive trader allowed for a possible entry on the 1 min timeframe at 11:00. Depending on which indicator you would use to show divergence.

So for me if each bar is being retraced a good percentage, (over 50-60%), I stand aside and wait for things to clear up.

Hope this helps,

Jim


Hi Jim, are you referring to one market in particular or all four of the indices? How did you handle the TS3 buys on the 3 & 5 minute charts? I took the first TS3 on the YM 3 minute and got stopped out. It gave a second chance and I stood aside on what looks to have been a pretty good trade (i could have at least recouped my first small loss).

This is one of those days where I feel like I'm a contrary indicator.

If you have a chance later, perhaps you could post a chart with notes on it?

Thank you for your help,

David

[jands]

Hi David,

I didn't trade at all this morning because of what I stated earlier.

The YM, ES, and NQ showed the most retracement of each bar on a bar-by-bar basis. To me (and it is just a guess) that is showing a lot of indecsionby everyone including the professionals. So I just stand aside.

The ER2 didn't show as much congestion as the others. But if you look at 10:30 as the dividing line; the left looks very congested while you can see the price clears up and shows deffient direction.

I am packing to leave for Europe right now but I will keep it in mind to post a chart when able. (I am not very good at posting charts so any advice would be helpful.)

Hope this helps in the meantime.

Jim

[d-day]

David,

Do you notice any PTT's on any of your charts today? I'm trying get a feel for these. Appreciate any input.

Thx

None worth mentioning right now (but they are always there) I do see a bunch of potential DP short trades all over the place.

[d-day]

Unless I'm not seeing things correctly, the only market to have reached DP resistance is the ER2(AB). I'd feel better about attempting a short trade if all the markets,or at least the YM, had also traded into there respective DP's.

[qitrader]

I got stopped out on first DP short on ER2. -1R

Qi

[jands]

Hi David,

I just tried to get a chart out but I have to disable to many hotkeys to get a chart out with text on it.

I will get one done in the next couple of days highlighting today to post for everyone.

I want to short the market as well but it seems to be holding it's high ground for the moment which may not be a good sign.

I'm about done trading for today so good trading.

Jim

[d-day]

The ER2 looks like it has made a decision at this point to go higher. It looks like this is shaping up to be a trend day. Its going to catch alot of folks off guard if it continues to rally. Typically a trend day that gaps open in the direction of the trend extends sharply from the open into the noon hour before taking a rest. This market gapped open and immediately went to sleep. The ER2 didn't even take out this mornings first high until 12PM EST.

Go figure.

I'm down 2R, or 1.33% so I have one more to go before I pull the plug for today and wait until tomorrow.

[d-day]

Hi David,

I just tried to get a chart out but I have to disable to many hotkeys to get a chart out with text on it.

I will get one done in the next couple of days highlighting today to post for everyone.

I want to short the market as well but it seems to be holding it's high ground for the moment which may not be a good sign.

I'm about done trading for today so good trading.

Jim

Thanks Jim, travel safely. We'll see you when you get back.

[qitrader]

I'm curious but did anyone catch the ER2 Long (ABC) around 1105 am on either 3 or 5 minute. Not me, but looks like a good hold till end of day.

Qi

[d-day]

I saw it but I was already long, and in the process of getting stopped out of the YM.

I agree about holding. If I were lucky enough to have been long the ER2 from 11:00 +/- I'd give it a lot of breathing room. I'd probably trail my stop at 1 or 2 ATR stops below whatever the current ATR stop is.

[d-day]

Although yesterday's high at 778.80 may be a potetntial reversal point. If the ER2 gets there if I were still long, I'd tighten stops unless trade sustains itself above that high.

Did anyone take that trade?

[pegasus5]

Hi Guys,
I missed part of mornings trading as I had other business to attend to...I missed the ER setup but did manage to get Long ES TS3...currently managing with ATR Stop. Looks like STF is is transition mode. With internals positive love to see this baby move higher after lunch time..

David

[d-day]

Great trade ... I see its within a whisker of the first WPT.

Speaking of whiskers, the ER2 is shaving up against yesterday's high.

[pegasus5]

I'm using OCO orders to made trade..I'm looking to make ticks at avrious levels with trailing stop on balance

[d-day]

NQ & ES have traded/are trading at or above yesterday's highs, ER2 came within a tick, and the YM has yet to get there.

This seems to be a "momentumless" rally. Which way from here?

[pegasus5]

My PT is DP Level on 5 min ES @ 1395 to make partial or full sale..or get stopped out using ATR Stop. That's the game plan..

[pegasus5]

Called an audible at the line of scrimmage..Sld @ 1392.95 +3.5R gain

[d-day]

I'm short the ER2 from 778.90 and the stop is already at breakeven. I'm not in the mood to lose anymore today.

[qitrader]

Probably today is not a good day to take DP trades against the trend. Yesterday was great, but today sure gave back alot on any DP shorts on shorter timeframes. It is all Ying and Yang.

Qi

[pegasus5]

Per my Checklist posted last evening...I will only consider trades in direction of underlying STF Trend....

[pegasus5]

There's my "majic number" 1395 hit...Too bad I'm not there ...no regrets..:D

[d-day]

Per my Checklist posted last evening...I will only consider trades in direction of underlying STF Trend....

My score for today:

-1R Long trade
-1R Short trade
BE Short Trade

The real kick in the head is that the YM reversed almost immediately in my favor after I was stoped out.

I hate when that happens.

Nevertheless, I'm short the ER2 again 778.8 and I have my stop back at breakeven.

I might not make any money today, but darn it, Interactive Brokers may as well have their pound of flesh!






Update: Doh!

[pegasus5]

Looks like indexes are bumping and grinding at respective 5 min DP Levels, though underlying STF is now firmly Blue, hence no Short Sales for me right now. Nor do I see any DP divergences..unless I'm blind...

[qitrader]

I'm short 781.8 now. 2nd trade of the day. Hope it works out this time.

Qi

[qitrader]

Stop moved to BE.

Qi

[pegasus5]

Well, I missed this one @ midday..Good to review anyway..YGJ07 Mini Gold

[qitrader]

+2R. Glad to finish positive with 1R. Tough day if you miss the long from the very bottom in ER2

Qi

[d-day]

Long the SP's at 1394 and stop is at BE. I'm looking for a retest of this morning's high around 1398 but willing to bail any second with a small profit.

[d-day]

I'm out at 1398 and waiting for a red reversal bar on the 5 minute ES to see if we get a short entry signal.

[d-day]

We got the red bar, but the R/R at first WPT shows about 1.7:1 so I'm going to pass and wait for something better.

[d-day]

Yesterday I ended up down 2.1R (including commissions) which given my risk size is equal to to 1.39% of my my monthly starting equity (I start each month from the same point, taking out my profits at the end of the month to pay for such mundane things as the mortgage, health insurance , groceries, gasoline, etc. etc.).

In the grand scheme of things, being down 1.39% on any given day is nothing, certainly not fatal.

However, what I have found is that the market tends to give me 1-3 days/month were I make the real profits, and yesterday was one of those days, and I missed it.

Why? Well, a couple of reasons.

1) I lost on my first entry on a TS3 long on the YM, and then I chose not to re-enter when the TS3 was signaled again 1 bar after having been stopped out. I then watched the market move favorably from that set-up, and emotionally the frustration broke my concentration.

2) My frustration was compounded by the fact that since I was already long the YM, I did not go long the AB TS3 which was signaled on the 3 minute chart and where the WPT support fell precisely at the mornings prior low - that was a no brainer set-up. But rules are rules - if I'm long one index I will not be long another. More frustration, more loss of focus.

3) As a result of this loss of focus, instead of seeing that the ER2 was offering entry after entry, in spite of having missed the initial entry at the bottom, I fell back to what worked best the day before, i.e. DP divergence trades. Going short against a trending long day is never a successful strategy.

So why was yesterday worse for me than the 1.4% loss would suggest? Because conservatively, had I focused on the market as it was, rather than perceiving it as it was the day before, I'd easily have been up 5% of starting monthly equity yesterday. That's if I only took positions at the most attractive points. As I tend to get more aggressive in pyramiding as the trend persists. Had I kept my head straight, yesterday could easily have been a +8-9% day. Those are the days where I say "I had a great month today."

Just goes to show how important it is to keep your focus. Toward this end, it is so important to keep what Mark Fisher calls that "Next!" attitude toward any trade.

It also shows just how hard it can be to keep that attitude.




NEXT!

[d-day]

I had a couple of folks e-mail me about where I picked up on the long ES trade this morning as they did not see it on MTP.

I went long when the market traded down to the morning's prior low, and set my profit objective as a retest of the morning's high. This was a simple SAR(support and resistance) set-up.

[qitrader]

Potential DP long on ER2

[qitrader]

I'm long 776.2 on the ER2.

Good trading

Qi

[d-day]

ER2 Long at 775.7






UPDATE: I bailed 776.90 - Maybe too soon, but who knows?

[qitrader]

Very nice fill David. Wow, you must have speedy Gonzalez type fingers. :)

Let's hope for a +3-5R trade.

Qi

[qitrader]

Oh well. -1R

Qi

[pegasus5]

So far today I'm batting 100% 0 for 0 Actually I've gotten conflicting signals between MTP and Breakout Method I use, hence I've decided to Stand Aside till they get insync...

[d-day]

Very nice fill David. Wow, you must have speedy Gonzalez type fingers. :)

Let's hope for a +3-5R trade.

Qi

I had a market order locked and loaded - so I had to fudge a bit on the position size, but I was watching the 1 minute chart and I knew ahead of time I wanted to be long there.

I have learned that my fingers are more "slow-poke Rodriguez;" hence the market order ready-to-enter.

[d-day]

ER2 has just retraced approx. 62% of yesterday's gain (off yesterday's lows), which happens to be approx. 38% of the entire gain off Monday's lows, so we may be in a for a decent bounce, or even the resumption of the up leg. Of course, the market could have other ideas, and eventually I'd bet that that gap back to Monday's close gets filled (though probably not today, and maybe not even this week, and, perhaps, maybe not at all).

[d-day]

TS3 sell on the NQ 3 minute with black STF. I'll go short at 1740 if my order is hit, stop loss at 1742.25.

[pegasus5]

David, I'm working same NQ..decent acceptable R/R


I'm in @ 1740..

I gave it the full room...Again lunchtime orders just don't seems to work out...I'm stopped out

[d-day]

I'm out at BE. This thing is taking too long to move.

[d-day]

By breakeven I mean another $38.40 has been transferred from me to my broker, but that is the extent of the damage:)

[tombtrader]

Guys,
I use Market Profile VAH VAL and POC numbers to trade against.

For example, VAH was about 777.70 today and I looked for a sale on a pullback after the first time it broke that level. It subsequently traded doen to the POC at 773.50. If this low is tested again, I be looking for a position to sell to run it down to 768.20 which is the VAL.

I now mainly use the DPs that are formed on the pullback to enter the trade. If an oscillator is OB or OS, so much the better.

Using Market Profile is usefull if you have a need, like I do, to trade with a structure so I know where I am.

Lots of good info on the web such as
http://www.trading-naked.com/Market_Profile_Trading_Methods.htm

but its the position sizing and the DPs that make it work for me.

[qitrader]

Hope it continues higher. Looking at ER2 from 2nd entry around 774.80 after 1st stop out.

Qi

[d-day]

Strong resistance coming in at yesterday's close (ES)

[qitrader]

Getting conflicting signals again. Possible ABC short on ER2. No positions taken yet. Beige Book at 2pm.

Qi

[d-day]

Guys,
I use Market Profile VAH VAL and POC numbers to trade against.

For example, VAH was about 777.70 today and I looked for a sale on a pullback after the first time it broke that level. It subsequently traded doen to the POC at 773.50. If this low is tested again, I be looking for a position to sell to run it down to 768.20 which is the VAL.

I now mainly use the DPs that are formed on the pullback to enter the trade. If an oscillator is OB or OS, so much the better.

Using Market Profile is usefull if you have a need, like I do, to trade with a structure so I know where I am.

Lots of good info on the web such as
http://www.trading-naked.com/Market_Profile_Trading_Methods.htm

but its the position sizing and the DPs that make it work for me.


Do you have a price above which your bias would turn from short to long? That is, your bias, from what you have said, is short, as you are looking to sell at certain levels. Does the market's postion vis a vis the market profile numbers establsih the bias, or do you use an oscillator or other indicator to establish your long/short bias?

[qitrader]

Glad I did not take that short. Mkt is too strong.

Qi

[d-day]

ER2 is now testing this morning's high as support. I hate to do this so close to the beige book, but I'm going long above 782.

There's not alot of room between there and yesterday's high, however, so this will definately be a "short-leash" trade.


UPDATE: I've cancelled my buy stop at 782 given the current pullback. I'll stand aside 'til post-data.

[d-day]

I've seen nothing clear enough to warrant taking a stand one way or the other. Barring a spectacular collapse or a stunning rally commencing by 3:20 or so, I'm done for the day.

[pegasus5]

I'll second your thoughts David..2 trades for me today +1R net..Beats a sharp stick on tricky day..

[qitrader]

Well, this is a manual advanced ABC short on ER2. A trade I recently took and still holding. Entry @ 780.3.

From -1R, now back to +2R or so. Waiting to cover!!!

Qi

update: Covered for +3.5R. Total = +2.5R.

[pegasus5]

Daytrading the various Index Futures a trader can often become myopic and not see the bigger market picture unfolding, and the potential trades that may be offered. We're taught with Wave Analysis to always consider the "larger degree" timeframe to keep perspective.

Recent Forum postings have touched upon different trading styles utilizing various time frames..1min, 3min, 5min, tick charts, etc..etc. All certainly valid for the individual trader. Which got my mind spinning about "volume based" charts that was brought to my attention recently by a trading associate that has had very good success with these type charts. I myself have never used them, so I decided to experiment a bit with them and the MTP Trade Setups to determine what kind of results would unfold.

Here is the criteria that I am using. Please keep in mind that the results are far from complete, nor is this a very scientific experiment. But I thought I would share my early results, and perhaps get other MTP'er's to add their input.

E-mini Dow Future March Contract: YMH07
5000V (volume bar chart) 1000 bars back
$20,000 account balance 2% Risk (no commission)
Take all trades >= 2/1 ratio
Use ATR Stop for trade mangement and Exit trade when stop elected

Results (see attached spreadsheet snapshot)

5 trades
5 winners
Lowest R-Multiple 1.2
Highest R-Multiple 8.04

Total $ Risk: $1790.00
Total $ Profit: $9895.00

Approximately 50% return on $20K account.

Very interesting early results, but of course there are only 5 trades, and one cannot extrapolate any "expectancies" from these results. But, indeed they are worthy of further investigation with the 5000V bar charts.

Comments certainly welcome.

Good Trading,
David

[d-day]

I've never used a volume chart. Any idea how to make one in e-signal?

[jjc]

http://www.esignalcentral.com/support/faq/esignal/advtick/default.asp

j

[jjc]

Unknown person's opinion on volume charts



j

[Biggo]

Interesting article here showing Momentum (range) , Tick , Volume & Time bars & some of the Pro,s & Con,s..

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips49.htm

[jjc]

From what I understand, Esignal's next upgrade will include 'range' bars.

It's supposed to be in beta now.


j

[tombtrader]

Great news!

Range or Momentum bars are distinctly different to other bars as they get rid of all the noise in the markets.

Also, using fib levels is cleaner.

Whether they are useful for someone depends a lot on their style of trading. I know range bars help me stay in a trend longer and to not over trade. Having the MTP DPs on my range bar charts will be really great.

[d-day]

When do we roll out to the June e-mini's? The March's are going off the board soon.

[AndyvB]

E-minis, need to start them on Monday, volume will go big time to June starting Monday

[d-day]

Thanks Andy. I'm going to put June on my screen today so I can start to "adjust my eyes" to their higher premium.

[pegasus5]

TS says that June contract begins trading today as lead contract..

[d-day]

I think you may be right Pegasus, there's more volume heading into June than March today. I'll be trading June.

[d-day]

A lot of good real estate on the charts was gobbled up by the overnight traders.

I tried to go long the ER2 at 788.90 and missed it (fingers too slow). I should have market ordered in.

[pegasus5]

I see lots of Blue on the STF's, hence, according to my personal rules, I'll only consider Long Trades..Unless there is STF Divergences at DP levels. I'll be flexible on all timeframes...

[qitrader]

I am trading June contract ER2. First trade stopped out BE. (Tried to short based on DP but there was no divergence neither a follow through)

Usually, you want to rollover 1 week before option expiration or you pick the one that has traded with the biggest volume. Another way to know which month to trade is by looking at how the candles are been traded. If there are many gaps in between, then it is no good. If they are nice and clean, then it is a good tradeable instrument.

JMO

Qi

[pegasus5]

There is DP 15 min in ER2 with some Divergence, but looks like it may want to push through...I'm in watch mode right now..

[qitrader]

I am thinking about a failure DP (LONG) trade here if it meets my RR criteria. So far it hasn't.

[d-day]

TS3 long set-up on the 3 minute YM - risk/reward a touch low if the current bar turns into the colored reversal bar for entry.

[ClaphamTrader]

Hi David,

I have a TS3 (16:22 Blue bar - Fired 16:24 bar) on the YM 2min, but nothing on 3 min.

DOH!
Just spotted you're probably trading the YMM07 June contract where I can now see the TS3.

Just triggered, but I'm passing on this one as RR <2
Market just seems to be drifting sideways in a v.small range at the moment.

Are we waiting on any big news?

[d-day]

Hi David,

I have a TS3 (16:22 Blue bar - Fired 16:24 bar) on the YM 2min, but nothing on 3 min.

DOH!
Just spotted you're probably trading the YMM07 June contract where I can now see the TS3.

Just triggered, but I'm passing on this one as RR <2
Market just seems to be drifting sideways in a v.small range at the moment.

Are we waiting on any big news?


I passed on the YM M7 3 minute TS3 also, for the same reason as you.

It seems that any trending that was going to be done occurred overnight, as the market often becomes paralyzed ahead of tomorrow's US Payroll report.

[qitrader]

YM also triggered long on the 5min. Looks good.

[d-day]

There was a TS3 on the 3 minute NQ M7 at the same time, which I also rejected due to R/R < 2

[Todd Morgan]

The oil services (OIH) and the energy spdrs (XLE) each just bounced nicely and the YM is barely moving.

I've got this one on a short leash.

[d-day]

And in both cases (the TS3's on the YM & NQ), even the lower R/R WPT would have required each to take out this morning's highs, which may be too much to hope for today.

[pegasus5]

I'm in the YM 3 min TS3 setup...

[qitrader]

Because of YM 5min ABC setup, I'm long ER2 791.6 but only 1% of account.

Stop currently at -.5R

We'll see how it goes.

[d-day]

I'm in the YM 3 min TS3 setup...


Pegasus - your data is different from mine. I can see where in TS you would take that trade, whereas e-sig the R/R came in <2.

What was your entry and initial stop?

[pegasus5]

I'm out YMM 3 min @ 12396..

[d-day]

DP short on the ES, trading off the 5 minute chart - close leash trade.

[qitrader]

I'm out +1R. DP short setting up as well on ER2

[pegasus5]

David,

Here is Risk/Reward Calculations for YM Setup..

[Todd Morgan]

That exactly what mine were too. And I'm on eSig.


David,

Here is Risk/Reward Calculations for YM Setup..

[qitrader]

I'm short ER2 at 792.4

[d-day]

That exactly what mine were too. And I'm on eSig.

Well, this must be another instance of e-signal's well-documented inconsistancy amongst tick servers.

Here's my formula output window on the same trade showing R/R 1.71 at first target.

[ClaphamTrader]

David,

If you use the 2nd inside Blue bar for the entry calculations, you'll get the same figures as the esignal guys.

[ClaphamTrader]

I'm short ER2 at 792.4
Qi,

I'm short ER2 with you :D but in at 853.30 on the March 07 future.
NIce bug STF divergence and heading lower.

Target 850.60 DP from 15:03 3 min bar low.

Stop & Limit in place and I'm off to get a coffee as the mkt is so dull today I'm falling asleep by the screen:)

[d-day]

I see that now, however, my chart, and hence my data is till different from Pegasus's TS chart. His candle show a clear and clean blue reversal bar at WPT. e-signal does not. You will note that Pegasus's 3 minute chart has no such inside bar.

[qitrader]

Not sure if this will work but take a look at the chart below. I would have prefered for the trade to immediately break the lows around 790.8 after entry which did not happen.

[ClaphamTrader]

Qi,
Can't make out your screenshot:confused:

[d-day]

I'm out the ES short at 1419.50 for a massive .15R Gain

That makes me -.85R for the day (I got stopped out of a long ER2 trade by 1 tick right before it rallied for what would have been 2.1R). It happens.

[Todd Morgan]

Energy (XLE) and Oil Services (OIH) continue to run. The may just drag everything higher in a sleepy session before the jobs data tomorrow.


EDIT: then again, maybe not.

[qitrader]

Maybe this screenshot is better.

[d-day]

Ok, so on the current YM M7 TS3 long on the 3 minute chart, are you folks taking your entry off of the 12:45 blue reversal bar or 12:48 inside bar?

I know thisis covered in the trading course, but I forget what Steve says about it with respect to short-term charts.

[ClaphamTrader]

Better thanks.

TS3 just fired on YMM07 @ 12377
Managed to get in at 12376:)
StopLoss at 12369
Min Wave C Target 12397 (again) for 2.55R

Closed my ER2 for a small loss as YM looks more promising (hopefully)

[Todd Morgan]

Same thing here.


Better thanks.

TS3 just fired on YMM07 @ 12377
Managed to get in at 12376:)
StopLoss at 12369
Min Wave C Target 12397 (again) for 2.55R

Closed my ER2 for a small loss as YM looks more promising (hopefully)

[ClaphamTrader]

TS3 alos fired on ES on same 17:51 bar.
YM looked more symetrical so I took this one, but ES firing in same direction gives a warmer feeling inside:)

.... having said that it hasn't really galloped out of the gates and it's stalling a bit at the moment. :(

[qitrader]

Very tough day. I'll be cautious of any trades if I get stopped out of this one.

As traders we have to minimize our exposure when markets don't trend as well.

[qitrader]

Just wish ER2 move to 100% of initial risk so I can move my stop to Break even.

update: -1R. Total: 0 for the day

[d-day]

Qi,

The only thing keeping your stop from BE is you. I use a time stop on all trades (usually 4 bars, however, it varies based on ATR, voloatility, etc.). Trades tend to get crowded the longer the market sits still. I like quietly to slip out of the exit before some idiot yells "Fire!".

Good luck,

David

[ClaphamTrader]

Better thanks.
TS3 just fired on YMM07 @ 12377
Managed to get in at 12376:)
StopLoss at 12369
Min Wave C Target 12397 (again) for 2.55R


Closed position at 12384 for +1R.
Don't trust this mkt as the $TICKS hit over 1250 a couple of minutes ago but no real follow through from the mkt.
Last time they went close to this high at 16:48 the YM pulled back from a high.

As David said, "sometimes you just need to ring the cash register"
Ker-ching!:D

[qitrader]

David,

Thanks for the insights. I've been thinking about applying a time stop as well but this will be done probably next week and see how the results compared after 1 month.

[d-day]

This is a tough day. The market has spent most of the day drifting in "no man's land," doing its best to steer clear of recognizable support and resistance areas where higher probability/lower risk trades can be initiated.

My one loss today was the result of me trying to enter in this no man's land.

[qitrader]

True. To me, the only way to know i'm trading a "no man's land" is after the entry. LOL

[ClaphamTrader]

My TS8 froze up around 18:39. Had to re-start it and the feed still seems to be a bit slow:mad:

Anyone else experiencing probs with TS8 or is it just my PC/network?

[d-day]

Do the SP's fail to attain and hold higher highs here? If so, will that failure result finally a retest of yesterday's highs as support?

I'm short at 1421.50 with a 1422.50 stop. I'll market order out at any given moment.

[ClaphamTrader]

My TS8 froze up around 18:39. Had to re-start it and the feed still seems to be a bit slow:mad:

Anyone else experiencing probs with TS8 or is it just my PC/network?

Lots of windows giving me a message:
Data request failed: Unable to access corporate actions data file/server.:confused:

[pegasus5]

CT..Mt TS seems to be working fine..

[qitrader]

It is working here as well.

[d-day]

ES needs to get under the minor trendline drawn beneath this mornings prior lows in a hurry or I'll have to cover my short.

Update: Ok, now it needs to get under 1417.50 (ES M7)

Update: As if on cue!

[qitrader]

Ouch. I think I miss a DP SHORT on 3min with divergence.

[d-day]

Here's the one minute ES M7 screenshot - ES now testing 1417.50 as resistance - might need to give it room back to test the trendline above.

[d-day]

I wish the ES had actually made a higher high by a tick or two or three.




Update: Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeee!


If it can break below the 1 minute bear flag then 1414.50 should be a near certainty.

[d-day]

Ok, 1412 is the next target as this was the last meaningful Globex low - but back above 1414.50 with force and I'll cover.


Update: Well, it got to 1412 alot quicker than I thought. Stops on shorts should be no higher than 1415. I have a market order to close the postion ready to go. I doubt I'd give it play back to 1415.

[Todd Morgan]

David,

Very nice trade.

What made you take it? Potential for a double top?



I wish the ES had actually made a higher high by a tick or two or three.




Update: Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeee!


If it can break below the 1 minute bear flag then 1414.50 should be a near certainty.

[d-day]

David,

Very nice trade.

What made you take it? Potential for a double top?

I always sell against a retest of a high and buy a re-test of a low (unless I'm already positioned against it, of course).

[qitrader]

Amazing trading David!!!!