A new idea...

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Everybody...

Last week I got an interesting phone call from one of our users and a long time trader friend of mine and she said, "You know, I know you trade your families money and most of that is done on Stocks and Commodities so why don't you setup a stock and commodity thread and talk about what trades you are looking at?"

I thought this was a great idea because most of these trades are long term and don't require the trader to even be at the screen during the day. In addition, people can learn much better as you slowly take them through the entire trade process from start to finish. Having said that I will create a new Stock and Commodity thread for our users to share ideas.

So... let's kick it off with a trade I'm currently eye-balling :eek:

May Sugar

The trade is from the MTPredictor End-of-Day and you can see from Friday that Sugar rallied, but is not bouncing off of the Decision Point (DP) level, so we are going to sit hear and wait patiently like any good trade does... right ;) If we get triggered in I'll keep you posted.

[AndyvB]

Matt:
Great idea...I was looking at July sugar too, it looks almost like it has just barely touched, if it has, the DP point. But sugar has gone no where today.
Andy

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Andy,

Hey...you should get your Dad on this board, he's an old commodity cat...I love listening to those old guys...they don't talk much, but when they do it pays to shut-up and listen (that's basically how I learned from my Grandfather.

I'm pretty much in line with the Friday report there has been short covering and I'm just looking for that "last jab" or that last dagger to fall here shortly :)

DJ Nybot Sugar Review: Up, Recovers With Trade Buying
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

World-raw sugar pit futures ended higher on the New York Board of Trade on
Friday after trade-house buying curbed a slide to a 1 1/2-month
continuation-chart low and locals and small speculators covered shorts.
Additional trade buying was seen in late action.

Nybot brokers adjusted to longer floor hours that began Friday.

Nybot-pit May settled up 3 points at 10.26 cents a pound, with July up 4
points at 10.17 cents.

"Funds and locals sold it down through recent support, and several thousand
May-July spreads were sold," a floor broker said. "They looked to push May
below 10.00 cents, but we held 10.07 with trade buying" in the outrights and
the nearby spread. Locals covered shorts.

A desk trader said "Cargill sold the May-July spread Friday morning. "But the
trade bought May at the lows and there was more trade buying before the close.
Speculators did a little buying. J.P. Morgan sold May and bought July, probably
for Cargill."

[stevej]

I'm being lazy.

Can someone tell me how to plot the DP on EOD please?

Steve

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Stevej,

Take a look at the screen shot below and that should do the trick...

[stevej]

Thanks Matt

[radar]

Matt,

You would click on pt B first and then pt A, Right?

Ben

Hi Stevej,

Take a look at the screen shot below and that should do the trick...

[swissoaktree]

Matt,

You would click on pt B first and then pt A, Right?

Ben

I believe that you would use the WPT 1orA Down in this case and would click on B and then A.

[radar]

Ok, thanks, swissoaktree

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Radar,

In it's unorthodox application... Yes, that is correct. :D

[tar001]

how is this trade setup progressing? any other commodity trades we should be keeping our eye on?



Hi Everybody...

Last week I got an interesting phone call from one of our users and a long time trader friend of mine and she said, "You know, I know you trade your families money and most of that is done on Stocks and Commodities so why don't you setup a stock and commodity thread and talk about what trades you are looking at?"

I thought this was a great idea because most of these trades are long term and don't require the trader to even be at the screen during the day. In addition, people can learn much better as you slowly take them through the entire trade process from start to finish. Having said that I will create a new Stock and Commodity thread for our users to share ideas.

So... let's kick it off with a trade I'm currently eye-balling :eek:

May Sugar

The trade is from the MTPredictor End-of-Day and you can see from Friday that Sugar rallied, but is not bouncing off of the Decision Point (DP) level, so we are going to sit hear and wait patiently like any good trade does... right ;) If we get triggered in I'll keep you posted.

[radar]

Hi Stevej,

Take a look at the screen shot below and that should do the trick...


Hi Matt,

I'm wondering why you did not use the Wave C Down WPT for this chart, as opposed to the DP methodology?

Thanks,
Ben

[Matt Bowen]

I'm wondering why you did not use the Wave C Down WPT for this chart, as opposed to the DP methodology?


Hi Ben,

Because those swings are totally different and thus so are the Fib levels that will come from those swing points.

Run the Wave C Down WPT for this chart and see where the WPT levels are, as you can see, this shows Sugar is going down another 2 or 3 cents from current levels. The reason for the DP trade setup is because you have momentum divergence (which usually proceeds a bounce or change in trend).

If sugar falls another 2 or 3 cents then the momentum indicator will have caved in or we have the remote possiblity of a triple divergence. In either case the current trade will be stopped out and a small loss. Picking bottoms is like trying to catch falling daggers... you need to be very selective and the includes which counts you place on the screen. Obviously, this is not an automatic trade setup.

Hope that helps,

Matt

[radar]

Hi Matt,

I guess that's another question I have: How the DP and Wave C swings different and how can we identify one form the other?

Thanks,
Ben

[Matt Bowen]

I guess that's another question I have: How the DP and Wave C swings different and how can we identify one form the other?

Which version do you want?

The classic Elliot wave version :confused:

or the My personal version :eek:

Ha ha...

No, it's really simply the Wave C is just part of the Elliott structure and the DP is momentum divergence. I wouldn't give yourself a cranium expansion over it, all you have to do is look at that trade using both patterns and the answer will be right in front of you.

Just remember, the DP trades require divergence and is a counter-trend setup... the Wave C should be traded in the direction of the higher time frame or overall trend. You don't need to become an Elliott Expert to be a good trader with MTPredictor. In fact, some of the best traders do not even understand Elliott, they just wait for the alert to go off and then they go look at the risk/reward to see if it's a decent setup.

All the best,

Matt

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Matt,

I guess that's another question I have: How the DP and Wave C swings different and how can we identify one form the other?

Thanks,
Ben

Hi Ben,

I would suggest a reread of the PDF "Intro to MTP" at
http://www.mtpredictor.com/support/index.html

That will show the two set-ups in great details for you

I hope that helps ?

Steve

[Matt Bowen]

Just an update on some current positions in the commodities. The Sugar trade is working out (we had to roll over to the October contract), but it's still baking in the oven :)

Two weeks ago I had a client call and I told him not only about the Sugar, but Gold and Live cattle as they were sitting on Decision Points... they only thing left to do is manage the trade.

[Matt Bowen]

Not a bad score on the commodities... :D

[tar001]

Hi Matt
do you use EOD data on Esignal to find those trades? what markets do you follow? I guess if it is just a few you do not need the MTP EOD to spot trades? those are sure some nice profits.



Not a bad score on the commodities... :D

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi,

TS8 can also be used with Daily charts :)

Steve

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Tar001,

Most people probably don't know this, but 90% of my trading is done on the End-of-Day software. I only day trade when I feel like it and that's not very often... it's too draining on my cranium :D Nothing wrong with Day Trading, I just don't like to do it as it does not suite my personality.

A trader that has patience and knows what he's doing can make money with far less stress on an end-of-day basis. I don't like being chained to the computer for 6 and a half hours every day because when the alerts go off you have to be ready to go and if your are not at the PC then you are pretty much SOL.

I think if you are going to day trade, it must fit your personality not your pocket-book. Too many traders day trade just because they have a small account and that might be an issue in the beginning, but once they build up their equity they should look at trading end-of-day as it's far less stress.

Go back and read my old reports... I used to give this information to people for free, but I decided it was not in the best interest to the company because if I supplied them with all the work then there was no reason to buy MTPredictor as people would just piggy-back my trades.

Here was one of the reports: http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?t=497

[tar001]

Hi Matt
nothing wrong with EOD when you are making money like that:) I am thinking of doing a combination of both. Day trading is definitely very tough due to all the different time frames and everything jumping all around its hard to do a true analysis(IMO)


Hi Tar001,

Most people probably don't know this, but 90% of my trading is done on the End-of-Day software. I only day trade when I feel like it and that's not very often... it's too draining on my cranium :D Nothing wrong with Day Trading, I just don't like to do it as it does not suite my personality.

A trader that has patience and knows what he's doing can make money with far less stress on an end-of-day basis. I don't like being chained to the computer for 6 and a half hours every day because when the alerts go off you have to be ready to go and if your are not at the PC then you are pretty much SOL.

I think if you are going to day trade, it must fit your personality not your pocket-book. Too many traders day trade just because they have a small account and that might be an issue in the beginning, but once they build up their equity they should look at trading end-of-day as it's far less stress.

Go back and read my old reports... I used to give this information to people for free, but I decided it was not in the best interest to the company because if I supplied them with all the work then there was no reason to buy MTPredictor as people would just piggy-back my trades.

Here was one of the reports: http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?t=497