Natural gas

[Flavio Cirio]

2 trades on may natural gas: first on 30 min chart, then a big idea on daiy chart

please have a look.


Flavio

[d-day]

Flavio,

See if you can re-size your charts to make them viewble without causing vision damage and migraines to the rest of us.;)

The daily chart looks interesting. NG has a lot of leverage behind it. For a postion trade I trade the QG (mini-Nat Gas)

[Flavio Cirio]

Look At The Chart Now.

Anyway, The Problem Is That Heat. Oil Is Going Downwards Accordinlgy To The Ts3 Signal Of 2nd March...
Very Difficult To Envisage A Big Spread Move, But ....you Never Know....

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Flavio Cirio,

Good eye on the Nat. Gas up another .140 today at 7.405 I hope you moved the stop to breakeven... and give your self a "risk free" trade... this way you can relax and enjoy it if happens to move out :)

Very Difficult To Envisage A Big Spread Move, But ....you Never Know....

Very good point and you're absolutely right... you never know That's why I'm happy to let the ATR figure that out.

David is right, those screen captures from eSignal's application are rather large files and can give an extra cranium expansion trying to view it. Snag-it is the product most of us here use: http://www.techsmith.com/snagit.asp and it takes great screen caputres that you can manually adjust.

[Flavio Cirio]

hi Matt.


just to update you, I close my trade on nat. gas on 30 min. chart with a 5.7 return. now I am running the daily signal. if nat. gas breaks 7.5 (the ATR stop...) he should sails towards the first ts3 target at 8.05.

what do you reckon ?


have anice we


Flavio

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Flavio,

Good for you that was a good move on the Nat Gas and I'm happy to see you make the a good trade. I don't look at the commodities on the 60 minute time frames (only Daily and Weekly...I don't want to get side-railed by some "blip" on the screen. It's hard to take 10 or 15 points out of Crude Oil when you are looking at intraday charts. So, I don't mind getting stopped out here and there...it's par for the course.

what do you reckon ?

I don't think... I learned a long time ago to not "think" because I invariably I "screw myself" out of too many good trades when I have a "cranium expansion" (think too much).

I only look at the facts and the facts are...

As for reading the charts... on Commodities I like to overlay a Daily on Weekly and find out what is going on. In Nat Gat (May Contract) the open interest has been moving lower since late January which means traders have been closing out commitments. Velocity is decreasing as a function of volume while the amount of money available is contracting based upon fewer participants. (If you are wondering were this volume open interest relationship is coming from then look at the matrix below).

Also, if you look at the weekly chart (lower one) you see a huge symmetrical Triangle taking shape. I would say 7.85 is going to be the place most traders are looking at...that is if we get there. I added this classical analysis to show you the thinking, but if you just followed MTPredictor and the automatic signals you don't have to make all these decisions, the software does it for you.

The Crude Oil position was not stopped out today, so I'm going to be watching the energy complex next week with a keen eye :cool:

Also, I added the October Nat Gas chart below (Not the Front month May) because that was the month I got the signal on.


Here a great weekend,