S&P at a high ?

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everyboy.

From todays report "As you can see from the chart below, yesterday the S&P just moved sideways. But more importantly, it is still in the minimum Wave 5 WPT resistance zone highlighted in yesterdays report. As such, the position remains unchanged from yesterday in that a high “could” still unfold at current levels; however, “if” we get a strong close above this level, then the current strength is likely to continue up into the next resistance area, much higher. But for now I will be focusing on how the market reacts at this level to see whether a high can unfold ?

So today I will be watching very carefully for signs of a high, unless the market rallies strongly and moves well beyond the current WPT resistance area…."

Uhm ??? Will a high unfold ?

Steve

[d-day]

“if” we get a strong close above this level, then the current strength is likely to continue up into the next resistance area, much higher.

Steve


How much higher?

[Steve Griffiths]

How much higher?

Hi David,

As a MTP user, you should be able to answer that question yourself.... ;)

But, we don't need to think about that quite yet, as we have not closed above the WPT level yet, in fact the ES is down on GLOBEX this morning :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Well, certainly looks like that Wave 5 high has come in, especially after yesterday's sharp decline..... :)

But seriously do you all see how powerful these WPT's are. This nailed the actual high here to the day preparing you all "in advance" for recent declines...

Steve

[Eckbert]

Hi Steve, amazing. Is the SP going to decline to the DP of the wave 4 low? Lets wait and see.
Eckbert

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Steve, amazing. Is the SP going to decline to the DP of the wave 4 low? Lets wait and see.
Eckbert

Hi Eckbert,

Amazing indeed................ looks like the answer is YES ;)

See below on the SPY, just reached the oppsoing DP..... :)

Steve

[Eckbert]

Hi Steve, since on the YM and SP opposing DP have been achieved, I suppose that we will see some chopping and churning before we will know where to next.
Eckbert

[Eckbert]

Hi Steve as you have said in many psots that the DP level is a level where the market decides it's next direction. Is the next pitstop or buying opportunity at 1338/1310? Who knows ! Time will tell.
Eckbert

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

If you remember at the start of the thread I demonstrated how MTP EOD nailed the very day of the Jul 16 high, well here is an update.

As you can see, the S&P has declined from the high in 3 "minor" degree swings, so I used the "Advanced ABC module on the minor setting and just look where the recent low came in - right at the Typical Wave C WPT!

This is how well these WPT work in that here we nailed the Jul 16 high perfectly and have now just nailed the Aug 16 low perfectly !!

That is the power of MTP :)

Steve

[d-day]

Hi Guys,

If you remember at the start of the thread I demonstrated how MTP EOD nailed the very day of the Jul 16 high, well here is an update.

As you can see, the S&P has declined from the high in 3 "minor" degree swings, so I used the "Advanced ABC module on the minor setting and just look where the recent low came in - right at the Typical Wave C WPT!

This is how well these WPT work in that here we nailed the Jul 16 high perfectly and have now just nailed the Aug 16 low perfectly !!

That is the power of MTP :)

Steve

Since this decline was in 3 waves, do you suggest that the primary trend will remain up and that new highs are more likely to be forthcoming than new lows?

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi David,

That sounds like "forecasting", and you know that I never do that ;)

Steve

[d-day]

Hi David,

That sounds like "forecasting", and you know that I never do that ;)

Steve

So much for "Power" lol

"I'll gladly pay Tuesday for a hamburger today"

- Wimpy

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

just to clear up a classic misunderstanding where most amateur traders confuse “forecasting” (which is impossible) and “trading” (where the aim is to enter a trade with a small controlled risk).

Most amateurs get stuck in the assumption (because many vendors wrongly tell them) that they can use technical analysis to “forecast” or predict the future. This is as stupid as expecting to know what the lottery numbers are for next week’s draw. The danger with this is that amateurs get “stuck” in a forecast when it starts to go wrong and as such do not manage their trade correctly. Which is one reason why 97% of amateurs fail in this business.

This is why I do not “forecast”.

Mtpredictor’s true power is in the ability it gives the “Trader” to enter a trade with a small controlled risk and over time produce profits far in excess of the losses. This is what makes money over time.

Too many amateurs do not understand this and still try and look for some magic system that can “predict the future”, but none exists. This is why they end up failing because they do not understand this simple concept. Trading is NOT forecasting and you do NOT need to forecast the future to make money trading….

Steve

Either way, MTP still nailled the low perfectly :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

For those of who who have read and studied my Trading Course will know that the "first minor target" following a completed ABC correction is the Wave 1orA (or DP) target taken form the prior Wave b Pivot

Well, that is exactly where the rally off the Aug 16 low has reached - nice to be "prepared in advance" (without "forecasting") isn't it :)

But seriously what concerns me is the "pattern" of the rally. As you can see, the rally has unfoled in 3-swings, or an ABC corrective type of pattern.

As such, we are at a BIG resistance area here that will decide the next Intermediate degree move in the S&P for the coming few weeks and even months..............

So keep a close eye on how the S&P reacts at this level over the next few days.....

Steve

[Larry22]

I agree with you Steve, we are very close to a top.

I think that we might see one last little high, as I expect the C wave to unfold as a 5 wave pattern, but again we could ended up with a failure.

Still the hourly pattern seems to tell me that we are gonna see one last leg up, if this scenario is to unfold, it will have to be done in the next 2 or 3 days.

After that we will go down for quite some time. :-)

N.B I Have noticed that the NQ has made a new high today, so technically this index has 5 waves in the C leg and is ready to go down.
It will be interesting to see if the others indexes will follow or if they will try to make that last fifth wave.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Larry,

Well, it looks like the YM is in the process of completing the 60min Wave 5 high you mentioned here, but the ES looks like to will fail to make new highs. If this is indeed how the markets unfold today, then I will still (unless a strong rally unfolds later in the day) be looking for a high to unfold..........

Lets wait and see...........

Steve

[Eddo]

I jumped on this 5 min setup on a manual DP - and hope this might be the start of a very nice little ride

:)

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep, the 3min AB had a automatic sell at the high as well :)

Steve

[d-day]

Yep, the 3min AB had a automatic sell at the high as well :)

Steve

I jumped all over that ER2 auto DP short and then I had to leave for most of the day, so I let my initial stop ride. When I got back in near the close and I saw what the market had done I decided to keep a short line out over the weekend.

We'll see how it plays out.

Sometimes it pays to be away from your "enter" button, at least in my case, because I know I would have closed that thing out no later than when it took out the 813.3 high of the 10:42 bar basis the 3 minute chart.

[Eddo]

I jumped all over that ER2 auto DP short and then I had to leave for most of the day, so I let my initial stop ride. When I got back in near the close and I saw what the market had done I decided to keep a short line out over the weekend.

We'll see how it plays out.

Sometimes it pays to be away from your "enter" button, at least in my case, because I know I would have closed that thing out no later than when it took out the 813.3 high of the 10:42 bar basis the 3 minute chart.

Thats an interesting comment I think David.

I have a habit of placing OCO orders for half my position as soon as I enter a trade which will take out half my posn at the initial stop or the first target (Wpt or DP) whichever comes first, with a stop for the second half of the position riding with the initial stop and then following the ATR.

So, like you I still have half of my SPX (S&P500) short trade from Friday still on the books with a very nice profit for the other half already in the bank. This tactic works well for me in that my mind goes into 'relaxed mode' when I have 'banked' a gain on a position.

Whilst I accept that to letting 100% of the position ride 100% of the journey will provide double the profit, I read somewhere (and concur) that 'you will never go broke taking a profit'! :) - it works for me.

[tar001]

some of my best trades are when I walk away. I cant help but micro manage the trade when I am sitting there! hahaha
wouldn't this DP with divergence be a place you would want to take profits and even think about going long?:confused:


I jumped all over that ER2 auto DP short and then I had to leave for most of the day, so I let my initial stop ride. When I got back in near the close and I saw what the market had done I decided to keep a short line out over the weekend.

We'll see how it plays out.

Sometimes it pays to be away from your "enter" button, at least in my case, because I know I would have closed that thing out no later than when it took out the 813.3 high of the 10:42 bar basis the 3 minute chart.

[d-day]

wouldn't this DP with divergence be a place you would want to take profits and even think about going long?:confused:

Here's the ER2 as I see it. Both charts indicate the the ER2 reached a point where one could expect a period or consolidation, but neither indicate that an upside reversal is immanent.

[tar001]

Hi David
how did you calculate those new support/resistance areas? and what on earth is that second chart? hahah wow you guys are good. Its probably all you guyuys on here that are taking money from me during the day:eek:


Here's the ER2 as I see it. Both charts indicate the the ER2 reached a point where one could expect a period or consolidation, but neither indicate that an upside reversal is immanent.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Notice how the low of the day on the AB was at the "typical" Wave C WPT (Pink zone). This also nailed the low of the day for you :)

It was great how you got a nice +4.5R profit on the way down to this support zone as well

Add that to the great short from the high of the day juts after open and it was a great day on the AB on Friday :)

Steve

[d-day]

Hi David
how did you calculate those new support/resistance areas? and what on earth is that second chart? hahah wow you guys are good. Its probably all you guyuys on here that are taking money from me during the day:eek:

I don't calculate the support and resistance levels, I just look at the chart and see them (prior highs/lows).

The Stevenson Price Time Targets is taught in J R Stevenson's book found here: http://stockcharts.stores.yahoo.net/prtrwistpran.html

The concept of a measured move is simply that swings tend toward equality, so that the first swing low after the DP sell-off would be followed by another swing to a lower low, and that the second swing down would be equal to the price movement of the first swing.

In this case, you can see, as Steve pointed out, that price descended to the typical wave C target. I use measured moves and Stevenson PTT's to try to gauge in advance the probability that one or the other price target would be hit. In this case, both the SPTT and the MM indicated that price would fall into the typical wave c wave price target.

I decided to hold half the position short over the weekend because the charts looked to me like we may get some downside follow through on Monday.

My stop on the remaining lots is 818.4 and I have it working overnight in globex. I'm short from 820, and I covered half at 808.5 - so the ER2 would have to somehow gap past my stop and fill me at 831.5 just to cause me to cough up my booked profits and break even on the whole trade.

While swuch an event is possible, you would have to agree that that is not a probable.

But I've been wrong before, too many times to count.

Have a good weekend and best of luck to you next week.

[d-day]

I use measured moves and Stevenson PTT's to try to gauge in advance the probability that one or the other price target would be hit. In this case, both the SPTT and the MM indicated that price would fall into the typical wave c wave price target.



Also, while Stevenson PTT's and Measured moves may be calculated in advance as price action unfolds, in this case I drew the SPTT's and MM's after the fact because I was not able to stay in front of my screen that day.

[Larry22]

Also, while Stevenson PTT's and Measured moves may be calculated in advance as price action unfolds, in this case I drew the SPTT's and MM's after the fact because I was not able to stay in front of my screen that day.

Same thing as the Fibonnaci extensions in Ninja.

That's what I had but I traded the NQ instead because of my hourly count wave. I f you look at my 5 minutes charts of the ER the magical number was 808.0 but we also had 2 decision point 1 was at 808.9 and the other was 808.2, so that was an area for taking profits. :D

[Larry22]

I also forgot to mention that there is still a possibility to see one leg up higher for the december mini-russell, so we could go over 829.2 on the daily but not over the Top on the cash index.

As long as we do not break 801.8 then we are still in business for the new high, if we break that low then we will go down for quite some time, we should have the answer pretty soon. ;)

[d-day]

I also forgot to mention that there is still a possibility to see one leg up higher for the december mini-russell, so we could go over 829.2 on the daily but not over the Top on the cash index.

As long as we do not break 801.8 then we are still in business for the new high, if we break that low then we will go down for quite some time, we should have the answer pretty soon. ;)

I agree - and that's what stops are for :)

[TAS]

I agree - and that's what stops are for :)

any previous DAILY chart pattern example like the current level of US market that we might get a break to the downside first and then prove to be a last leg down before price poping up to new highs. ...?

Anybody good at wave counts can show any analysis for the possible (yet not a probable) move stated above... ?

Thanks a lot in advance...:)

TAS

[Eddo]

The 2nd half of my SPX 5 min trade from last friday got stopped out this morning at 1526.4 - very pleased the OCOrder took the 1st half out when the DP was hit on friday at 1522 -

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

This has been a great example of how important it is to "manage the trade" according to your normal rules, and not get "side tracked" by a possible "forecast".

This is what a Major part of part 1 of the Trading Course is all about, in that no matter how much we like to think that we can predict the future, it is never certain because it has not unfolded yet.

Understanding this and accepting it and then moving beyond "forecasting" was one of the biggest leaps forward I made in my own career, but it is so hard to do, because by our very nature we all like to "know" what will happen in the future and we feel lost when we do not know what the future may bring.

Being able to trade comfortably with uncertainty is one of the biggest assets that a trader can have.

But as usual, all the professional traders here have stops in the market to protect themselves no matter the outcome. This is good trading.

Trading is simply about making money, not about being right or predicting the future, just about the $'s at the end of the week, or month or year, nothing more !

Steve

[Larry22]

any previous DAILY chart pattern example like the current level of US market that we might get a break to the downside first and then prove to be a last leg down before price poping up to new highs. ...?

Anybody good at wave counts can show any analysis for the possible (yet not a probable) move stated above... ?

Thanks a lot in advance...:)

TAS

As Steve just mentionned, I could show you daily wave counts that I have, but these are from my point of view and may not be the same compared with others. The main point here is that I don't want members here sticking blinfoldly to my wave counts and then being blamed if this count get blown away. :(

I allways try to keep on open mind with alternate wave count, so I don't get too surprised if the market doesn't go as per my scenario.

One thing I do is using MTP with my own analysis for potential set-up.

So the best tip that I can give you is to try to make your own analysis and see what comes up. ;)

[Larry22]

We are now at the (Typical)point where wave A = wave C .

My hourly wave count is also complete, it will be interesting to see what the market will do now. :D

[tar001]

is it me or does this market not follow any long term patterns this year? seems to me that some very sharp people have been totally fooled by the strength of this market(election year antics I guess) do these patterns work in a heavily manipulated market?


We are now at the (Typical)point where wave A = wave C .

My hourly wave count is also complete, it will be interesting to see what the market will do now. :D

[Steve Griffiths]

A very wise trader said a long time ago, always go with the trend..........

Most Gurus who have been looking for a top, have got too set in their "forecasts", this is always the big mistake most so called forecaster make.

yes, be "aware" of the larger degree picture, but as I always said, do not let it "bind" you too much, markets always have a nasty habit of "overrunning" and going further than anticipated....

Steve

[Larry22]

tar001, if you look at my post you will see that I have allways talked about the possibility of one more leg up on the ES and the ER plus my hourly wave count on the dow jones could be completed but there is no reversal yet, so the market can climb up to the top. All I said was that we were in the target area.

The only thing that I knew, was that every time the market went down it was in a corrective ABC pattern, so that is why I have allways talked about possibility of going higher.

I allways try to see what the market wants to tell me, so let's wait and see what is gonna happen in the next few days, I don't mind if the market wants to make new highs all I care is what opportunity the market wants to give me to either buy or sell. :D

[Steve Griffiths]

The only thing that I knew, was that every time the market went down it was in a corrective ABC pattern, so that is why I have always talked about possibility of going higher.

Yep, that is the key to good analysis - see how the market unfolds, to see whether it is confirming or invalidating the original analysis.

A lot of the newer members could learn a lot from these last few posts here.

Nice one Larry ;)

Steve

[tar001]

who would have known we would have gone over 829.2 in one day? very good call here, maybe yu should trade my money?:D


I also forgot to mention that there is still a possibility to see one leg up higher for the december mini-russell, so we could go over 829.2 on the daily but not over the Top on the cash index.

As long as we do not break 801.8 then we are still in business for the new high, if we break that low then we will go down for quite some time, we should have the answer pretty soon. ;)

[Larry22]

who would have known we would have gone over 829.2 in one day? very good call here, maybe yu should trade my money?:D

I think you do very good on your own. :D

Now it will be interesting to see what the ER will do in the next few days as I have a total different count in this index.

I like the bearish one but we'll see what the market will tell us and if needed I will change my scenario. ;)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys

Here is my count on the 60min ES.

For me the most important part was the 3-swing ABC correction into the low a few days ago, this set-up the rally yesterday, that reached the minimum Wave 5 WPT.

As you all know, I never like calling Wave 5 tops, but ;)

Again, for me yesterday's rally came as no surprise, because it followed on from the ABC correction into the Sep 25 low.....

Steve

This is why it is always a good idea to keep one eye on the larger degree picture, so you know which way to "run" your shorter term trades..

[Larry22]

Hi Steve I agree with the hourly 5 waves count on the ES, the only difference with my count is that I expect wave 5 to have a five wave extension.

But again I could be wrong, time will tell us. ;)

[scooper]

Looks like the extension has come in. :eek:

Thats if this not part of a Wave 3 up which is what my count gives me. There again my counts are novice counts as I'm not an Elliotician.:confused:

I also have another package that is labelling the current advance as a Wave 3 with a potential target of 1641. My aunty also said 'the stock markets strong at the moment son you should be doing well'.....maybe if that's a contrarian indicator its time to go short:D

Only time will tell but I appreciate your analysis as I was following it on this thread along with Steves comments.

[Larry22]

Looks like the extension has come in. :eek:

Thats if this not part of a Wave 3 up which is what my count gives me. There again my counts are novice counts as I'm not an Elliotician.:confused:

I also have another package that is labelling the current advance as a Wave 3 with a potential target of 1641. My aunty also said 'the stock markets strong at the moment son you should be doing well'.....maybe if that's a contrarian indicator its time to go short:D

Only time will tell but I appreciate your analysis as I was following it on this thread along with Steves comments.

The extension I was talking about was a fifth wave in the last leg of either wave 3 or C. I f you look at the daily chart you will see five waves in the last wave starting september 25th.

I will post an hourly count later, that will be easier to understand. :D

[Larry22]

Here it is, my hourly count of the ES.

Note: This is my personnal interpretation wave count of the ES. There can be many alternate count, so I encourage you to do your own analysis. :D

[tar001]

I am beginning to wonder if we will EVER have another down move? the strength of this market is incredible(worldwide) very strange:confused:


Here it is, my hourly count of the ES.

Note: This is my personnal interpretation wave count of the ES. There can be many alternate count, so I encourage you to do your own analysis. :D

[rrs]

I am beginning to wonder if we will EVER have another down move? the strength of this market is incredible(worldwide) very strange:confused:

Hi Tar,

Your question is a very important one. I often find that it is useful to have a big picture (macro economic) view of the markets. Here are some explanations:

1) The large cap indices, like Dow and S&P500, are largely driven by the expectation that declining dollar will boost the profit margins of big cap US companies. Recently, London Financial Times published an excellent analysis that backed up this view. If you search at www.ft.com, you may be able to find it.

2) Even though many of us here (in the MTPtrader forum) recently expected an imminent decline based on certain chart pattern and DP levels, the macro economic currents that are driving the world markets (including the Dow and S&P 500) are better explained by the relationship between the Euro (currently the world's strongest currency) and Yen (currently the world's "weakest" currency based on interest rates). If you look at chart 1 (EURJPY vs DJIA daily chart) you will see how closely the Dow follows this important cross rate. You can remove the Dow and substitute it with S&P 500, you will see the same relationship. Often, the changes in this cross rate may be used as an early warning signal.

If you erase all the identifying information from the daily charts of EURJPY, DJIA, S&P 500 and attempt to tell which chart belongs to DJIA etc, you will be hard pressed to say which one belongs to which index or currency. (For example, take a look at daily charts of EURJPY and DJIA Cash index). The other cross rate that has a similar but, weaker realtionship to market indices is USDJPY.

The basis for this intermarket relationship is the fact that the carry trade (borrowing the cheap Yen to finance the purchase of high yielding assets in other currencies, like Euro and USD) is still going strong. Unlike the commonly held view that the carry trade is largely driven by the hedge funds, the recently released Bank of Japan statistics indicate that Japanese "retail investors" (read Japanese house wives who control house hold savings in Japan) have also become a major force in this carry trade. Please see the attached pdf for more information and stats from Bank of Japan.

3) Currently, the EURJPY pair is approaching significant levels and it is worth monitoring this pair closely not only for some high probability forex trades but also as an early warning signal. I have attached a daily chart of this cross rate I use as a "road map" for my trades. I find "road maps" like this one generated by MTP are very helpful in understanding the price action on a daily basis. This where MTP, in my view, really shines -- enabling me to weld the macro view of the markets with daily intraday price action.

4) Finally, keep an eye on the 3-month London InterBank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for USD, EUR and GBP, particularly for EUR. These rates determine the cost of borrowing for major banks in the world when they borrow money from each other. These rates spiked recently and have not returned to their "normal" levels. The London Economist (Sept 20, 2007,) highlighted this point recently in an article. The article's suggestion was "Follow the Money". There is also a related article that was published on October 4, 2007. The LIBOR rates can be found at FT's web site.

I hope this is helpful to you.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[tar001]

Hi there
thanks for the post, that is very interesting info. I really appreciate you putting together such an in depth response. I hope others read this as I think it offers great insight to what is going on in this market:D


Hi Tar,

Your question is a very important one. I often find that it is useful to have a big picture (macro economic) view of the markets. Here are some explanations:

1) The large cap indices, like Dow and S&P500, are largely driven by the expectation that declining dollar will boost the profit margins of big cap US companies. Recently, London Financial Times published an excellent analysis that backed up this view. If you search at www.ft.com, you may be able to find it.

2) Even though many of us here (in the MTPtrader forum) recently expected an imminent decline based on certain chart pattern and DP levels, the macro economic currents that are driving the world markets (including the Dow and S&P 500) are better explained by the relationship between the Euro (currently the world's strongest currency) and Yen (currently the world's "weakest" currency based on interest rates). If you look at chart 1 (EURJPY vs DJIA daily chart) you will see how closely the Dow follows this important cross rate. You can remove the Dow and substitute it with S&P 500, you will see the same relationship. Often, the changes in this cross rate may be used as an early warning signal.

If you erase all the identifying information from the daily charts of EURJPY, DJIA, S&P 500 and attempt to tell which chart belongs to DJIA etc, you will be hard pressed to say which one belongs to which index or currency. (For example, take a look at daily charts of EURJPY and DJIA Cash index). The other cross rate that has a similar but, weaker realtionship to market indices is USDJPY.

The basis for this intermarket relationship is the fact that the carry trade (borrowing the cheap Yen to finance the purchase of high yielding assets in other currencies, like Euro and USD) is still going strong. Unlike the commonly held view that the carry trade is largely driven by the hedge funds, the recently released Bank of Japan statistics indicate that Japanese "retail investors" (read Japanese house wives who control house hold savings in Japan) have also become a major force in this carry trade. Please see the attached pdf for more information and stats from Bank of Japan.

3) Currently, the EURJPY pair is approaching significant levels and it is worth monitoring this pair closely not only for some high probability forex trades but also as an early warning signal. I have attached a daily chart of this cross rate I use as a "road map" for my trades. I find "road maps" like this one generated by MTP are very helpful in understanding the price action on a daily basis. This where MTP, in my view, really shines -- enabling me to weld the macro view of the markets with daily intraday price action.

4) Finally, keep an eye on the 3-month London InterBank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for USD, EUR and GBP, particularly for EUR. These rates determine the cost of borrowing for major banks in the world when they borrow money from each other. These rates spiked recently and have not returned to their "normal" levels. The London Economist (Sept 20, 2007,) highlighted this point recently in an article. The article's suggestion was "Follow the Money". There is also a related article that was published on October 4, 2007. The LIBOR rates can be found at FT's web site.

I hope this is helpful to you.

Sincerely,

Rama.

[scooper]

Rama,

I will second what Tar just posted. This is an excellent in depth post and is really informative. I will be printing it out and keeping an eye on this as time progresses.

Thank you.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

This brings up a very important point – the difference between a “trader” and a “forecaster”, forecasters are normally wrong. However, a Trader uses levels to “anticipate” change without “assuming” that it will unfold.

This is why most people get it wrong, because they assume that a market do what they anticipate – wrong, markets will only do this about 50% of the time. So our job as a Trader is to have levels where reversals “may” occur” but we must NOT get stuck into a forecast, because you will just get confused, which is what has happened here.

Once the S&P when though my minimum Wave C WPT I was happy that a reversal was not going to unfold and the trend remained up. This is what has unfolded (so far).

The danger is when forecasters go on calling for top after top. This is the weakness of some of the most famous Elliott Wave Experts in the world. For example Prechter has been calling for a top after top as the S&P rallied over 100 points ! They just don’t know when to give up and admit a forecast is wrong.

So my advice is to read part 1 of the Trading Course again, and then understand that levels should only be used as guides and not as iron clad forecasts”. If a level is exceeded, the market will normally go onto the next, it is as easy as that.

As far as predicting the future – my advice is don’t do it, because if you try you will get into trouble.

I hope this helps ?

It is amazing, no matter how many times I repeat this same advice, it is just Human nature to want to “know the future” so forecasters grapple at straws trying to predict the future,. It is a Human weakness that we cannot deal with uncertainty, and a sad fact that far too many forecasters are happier having a forecast, even if the forecast is usually wrong….

But then is just my own persional opinion ;)

Steve