technical issue, my fault or censorship?

[gremtp]

Hi
I am quite sure I have posted at the beginnning of October some comments on psychology and luck. I cannot see it in the forum anymore. Is it because:
a) technical problem
b) I actually did not post it
c) there was something wrong and it was censored?

Cheers

[Steve Griffiths]

Looks like you did not post it first time. so please just post again...

Steve

[gremtp]

OK, here it is.

I would like to say something regarding psychology and luck, a thought prompted by looking at the equity curve chart that Chris Eddison posted in the forum on 4 Oct 07, post Nr. 1659 in the e-mini trading thread. I hope Chris does not mind.
By the way, Chris, it is very nice to see that you contribute to this forum again. Your posts were very helpful in my first period as a MTP user and it was sad to see your “posting strike”
So here it is. I hope someone will find it interesting.
Any curve that shows 257% growth on initial capital is great and deserves the deepest respect. Surely one does not care too much about the period between trade 180-ish and trade 250-ish, because he has a very good amount already in his pockets.
Easy….or is it?
Skilled and seasoned trader like Chris could do it easily.
But let’s imagine a new guy that started the “system” or methodology or whatever in…what was it, say July, at about trade number 180: he would have gone nowhere. That would be quite hard to stomach. I am not saying that losses should not happen or that traders should just be right all the time and all that stuff.. I am saying that 3 months where the only people who made money are your brokers (and MTP, but at least they are a nice bunch;) ) would require an almost religious trust in the system and in one’s trading abilities. More likely, it would cast all sorts of doubts about what one is doing wrong, whether he has misunderstood something:eek: . I have to admit that at this stage the Forum would not help very much, as the trades reported are usually (I am not saying exclusively!!) good examples. Everyone seems to be making money, except yourself. Here I also have to say that in this sense things are much more balanced on the forum now, thanks to scooper, TAR001, etc.)
Anyway, one starts thinking that people like Chris have a special way of filtering the trades, start pestering Chris, Steve and other experts for little snippets of the knowledge. Confidence slips and a negative circle develops.
Who has not been in this situation? I have been pretty much in it with MTP-RT last year and for many months. (Just for the records, I have never pestered you, Chris, or anyone else with PMs:D )

So we can talk about dominating the psychological aspect as much as we like, but there is also a huge amount of luck in adopting any system. If one started trading from trade 65 or 70, there would be no doubt. If one started on trade 180, even with all the expertise in mastering the MTP methodology, I would say, he would have moved on and looked for something else.
I can say that luckily (yeah) I decided to stay and look for ways to bring this methodology closer to my “trading style”. I have had to make a number of adjustments to be happier and more comfortable with MTP-RT.
I have to thank a number of people in this forum for their contributions. Knowingly, and mostly unknowingly, they helped me a great deal.
Good trading

[Steve Griffiths]

Yep, a good post and one of the main parts that the vast majority of amateur and new traders simple do not understand.

Trading is NOT a salaried position where you take money form the markets regularly, it is lopsided. As you can see from Chris's results and indeed any successful trader (including me) you have periods when you don't make money. This is not the fault of the system, this is just how trading unfolds. So yes if you are "lucky" for want of a different word, then you start during a good phase, however, sometimes this does not happen.

So here is a good bit of advice to all new traders out there, yes you will have losses and yes you will have periods when your equity curve moves sideways, but if you stick with it and become experienced, then yes (over time) the profits can be there. But do not expect profits everyday or every weeks or every month, the markets simply do not unfold like that, so the sooner you learn the truth about how the markets unfold, the better you will be equipped to cope with them.

The reason many amateurs fail is they simple have no understanding of this and seem to expect money everyday. Ask any successful professional trader, and they will tell you this is not the case. We see far to many people here who simply return the software just because they do not immediately make money. Well, as you can see, this can be the case, so it is not the fault of the software, it is simply that the amateur new trader does not understand how profits and losses unfold over time. Ths is why (as a company) we much prefer talking to experienced traders who have seen (and understand) this. Most amateurs do not know, or even worse, do not believe us when we explain how the real trading world works....

Persionally, myself in my early days I worked 6 months forward, in other words I always had at least 6 months living costs and expenses in the bank, this allow me to get through the inevitable quiet times.

So a very good post and one that a lot of new traders can learn from........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

PS,

Gremp,

Can you re-post your message above in a NEW thread, as it is so important it would be good to start under a better thread title that we have here.

As I believe a lot of people can learn from this thread.

Thanks

Steve

[Eddo]

Just a quick response from me

A picture is worth a thousand words ............. or is it??

What the MSA stats didn't show was that at trade 187 I reduced my trading pot from its then level to only £5,000 because I needed some short term cash to buy some furnature for our home in the USA (if any of you shop at Robb and Stucky you will get the picture :)

So ............ wef trade 187 I was trading 2% of a much smaller pot with 1R being only about £100 per trade and so whilst the graph doesn't look as dramatic as before, I was actually still making the same %age gains

I have re-drawn the MSA stats based on the trades from 187 to the end and with the 'pot' being only £5,000 - and over those 80 trades I still had a gain of 19% which I still think is brilliant.

In my humble view the problems only come in when you let you brain get in the way and start making stupid mistakes - you know you lose one then enter again because your angry and want to get it back etc etc etc - we have all been there.

Don't do that and follow the basic MTP setups (don't cheat) and it just works time and time again

Hope that clears up the confusion re my stats