When the $TRIN can help

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Today has been a great example of how keepinga close eye on the $TRIN can help yuor day-trading.

Here you can see how you would have already been long (from the low of the day :) ) on the 3min YM. BUT rather than closing the long tarde at the first porfit target you could have seen that the $TRIn was getting more bullish as buying pressure was increasing on the NY Stock exchange. This increased the liklyhood that the market was going to go still higher.

Armed with this knowledge, you could have decided to let at least part of yuor position "run" to higher porfit targets. As you can see, this would have resulted in a massive trade of nearly 7x the initial risk.

Again, a very good example of how a little experience and knowledge and the willingness to "think for yuorselfs" would have produced a great trade :)

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Sorry - here is the chart.....

[Steve Griffiths]

WOW............. now the day is over we can look back.... and here we will see that this trade was long from the low of the day, taking profits at the high of the day !!

And YES, this screen capture was taken and posted here "at the time" with no benifit of hindsight !

This is about as good as day-trading can get :) and all from a standard MTPredictor tarde set-up. The only thing I did differnet was use a further out profit target (which was placed on the chart automaticaly by the efs) because of the increasingly Bullish $TRIN.

So there you have it.......... a completed MTPredictor trade, and what a trade it was :D

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Steve,

Just read your report of today and couldn't help smiling because I played EXACTLY the same trade as the one you highlighted, but in my case I took it on the $INDU data instead of the YM (as you know I use a spreadbet account rather than the Minis).

Anyway, Esignal's MTP efs's gave me the same Long signal on the $INDU and like you, because of the very strong looking TRIN I held on for and got the major profit later in the day - just thought you might like to know that some of your clients are actually using MTP just like you expect us to use it.

I really hope that my suggestion of the TRIN is helping your other customers as much as it has me for years.

Just one more thought on the TRIN in relation to the trade that was lost a couple of days ago. You mentioned in your report that the TRIN had kept you out of a very good trade. I agree that it can be frustrating at times, but if you look at the market later that day, it was clear the buying pressure was infact Increasing not Decreasing and whilst I do accept that on that day a very good trade was lost, in the long term I am convinced that the few profitable trades that will be lost will be more than made up for by the many losing trades which TRIN will keep you out of.

Anyway just my thought for what its worth - thanks again for the excellent efs's on Esignal - I am finding them absolutely excellent - Chris :)

[stevej]

... in my case I took it on the $INDU data instead of the YM (as you know I use a spreadbet account rather than the Minis).


Chris,

Which spreadbet company do you use? How do you adjust the trigger / stop / profit etc targets to cater for the SB company spread?

Have to say that my experience of trading intraday using SB (primarily with D4Free) is not paticularly good - often find the price skewed against me etc. Is your experience different?

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Steve,

I use CMC (ex Deal4Free) and whilst not perfect, the fact that my gains are tax free is the selling point for me. What I do is wait for the Esignal price to hit the MTP Entry/exit points and take whatever the CMC price is at that time - I then manage the trade (again based on the Esignal price) and exit the position at whatever price CMC is quoting when the Esignal price hits the stop/target price.

Clearly this is not ideal and I very rarely get in or out at the actual price I want (if only I could MTP software on the CMC prices) but as long as I have my position sizing right I find that I can still make good gains whilst keeping my losses at 1 R (i.e. 1 R = max acceptable loss on a position).

With regard to stops, I used to place those into the CMC Marketmaker but because of the sometimes violent price swings which at times kicked me out before the Esignal price had been hit, I don't do that now. Instead, have trained myself to manually close the position WITHOUT FURTHER THOUGHT when the Esignal price hits the stop price or target.

The trick of course is to actually do that and I would be the first to admit that I have made mistakes and not closed when I should have :( and as always the losses then just get bigger and bigger (how is it that the Market always knows when you have mucked up and then proceeds to hammer the hell out of you?) - no doubt you have been there as well ! But I am much much better than I used to be and over the last 6 months or so I have had very few 'failures' in closing when I should.

I hope this helps a little - Chris

[stevej]

Thanks Chris,

Have you looked at Capital Spreads? They insist their prices are tied directly to the market by adding a fixed spread to the last quoted bid / offer. They say they do not manipulate the price, fish for stops etc. The wild swings on CMC put me right off using them (even position trading) as I prefer to place a trade with a stop rather than sit in front of a screen.

I understand, although I have not myself done so, that if CMC are taken to task over a trade being disadvantageously stopped out on one of their frequent wild fluctuations they have been known to 'put matters right'.

Another potential contender is http://www.twowayfutures.com who claim to place your trade directly in the market and charge you an additional spread the size of which depends on your trading volume.

Steve