Dow Jones Industrials

[durgesh147]

Superb Short Trade from 5 Min charts..

[durgesh147]

Type 1 Sell setup found on weekly .

[durgesh147]

Steve and Matt ,

Will you please guide me that in such cases which setup should one trade ?
A sell on weekly and a buy on daily .

[durgesh147]

TS1 sell setup in the making on 15 min charts.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi,

Keep an eye on the $TRIN, it is dropping so longs may be a better bet for today...........

Steve

[durgesh147]

A good looking TS1 sell setup found on DJI hourly chart .

[durgesh147]

TS3 buy setup found.Time to cover ur shorts.The upmove maybe real big.

[Norenzo]

I'm not so sure Durgesh.. there are a few fundamentals preventing the Dow from reaching 11000. Housing market has been disappointing and the inverted bond yield recently spooked traders so we'll see what happens. Friday's non farm payrolls will show the way.

[Norenzo]

Hat's off to you Durgesh, good call.

I hope it doesn't go higher than 11200, I've been short at 10950.. :(

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Norenzo,

I hope that you had lowered your protective stop to break even on your short from 10950 and are now out of your trade.

If you are not, then staying short in a losing position where the loss is getting bigger "hoping" for a fall is just insanity and throwing money away.

If the latter is the case, then it is time you got MTPredictor and came aboard and then learnt all about Risk control and sensible trade management guidelines to protect against situations like this.

Just some advice.

Nice to see how MTP nailled the TS low on Jan 3 though :) so if anything you should be long and making money with MTPredictor..........

Steve

[Norenzo]

Hi Steve

I am short on the March contract and my stop is above 11200, so I still have some time and I believe we will see some profit taking soon and a pullback to 10900 end of January. The first two weeks of January are common for the dow to reach over 11000. Most stocks so far have been downgraded and this has to got to hit home sooner or later regardless of whether the fear of interest rates being halted is driving this market higher which is a bit suspect to me anyway.

Thanks for the advice though. I'll sign up for MTPredictor soon.

:)

[Norenzo]

Durgesh, do you have an updated chart for the Dow by any chance?

Norenzo

[durgesh147]

This is my personal manual analysis on Dow. I feel we have a well completed 5 wave sequence of minor degree and Dow is headed for 10,600-10,650 .

[durgesh147]

TS1 sell setup found on 5min chart.

[Norenzo]

Thanks Durgesh, appreciate it. :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

The 15min ES also made a very nice set-up yesterday. Notice how the rally off the low was a perfect ABC. This was found by the new Advanced ABC module in v5.0 of the EOD porgram.

As you can see, the high of the day yesterday was right at the typical Wave C WPT with the red (sell) bar nailing the very bar of the high :)

Thanks and another good call Durgesh - well done !

Steve

[durgesh147]

Hi Norenzo ,,,

I guess u r sitting on hefty handsome profit on ur Dow short.;)

[Norenzo]

Hi Norenzo ,,,

I guess u r sitting on hefty handsome profit on ur Dow short.;)


I made a small profit Durgesh because I closed it too early. When I look at your chart I see it's pretty accurate so I should have followed. :(

Next time I will be more patient..

Thanks for posting the chart though and I hope you continue this DOW Jones thread. Your charts have been quite amazing.
;) :)

[durgesh147]

Look to initiate short position in Dow below the low of the current bar after this hourly bar is complete.

[Norenzo]

Hi Durgesh

The dow is at 10900 and I was wondering what your views are. Would that now be a C wave instead of 4?


Norenzo

[durgesh147]

TS2 BUY setup found.

[Norenzo]

Durgesh, another great call my friend. :)

[dctommy]

Durgesh:

Nice find on dow30 setup on monday at 2pm. If your 1 hour chart shows
a setup at approx. 2 pm est, and you entered under MTP rules, you would
have been stopped out of trade right at end of day or at next open, as
dow30 dropped down to about 10850.

Please confirm.


Thanks,

dctommy

[durgesh147]

Durgesh:

Nice find on dow30 setup on monday at 2pm. If your 1 hour chart shows
a setup at approx. 2 pm est, and you entered under MTP rules, you would
have been stopped out of trade right at end of day or at next open, as
dow30 dropped down to about 10850.

Please confirm.


Thanks,

dctommy

Yes, this trade setup was stopped out. Let me admit, i dont trade Dow. I trade just forex.I post these charts for those interested in trading Dow , if it cud help.:confused:

[durgesh147]

Looks like DOW can go up a minimum of 100 points from here.

[durgesh147]

Looks like DOW is poised for an upside breakout . I think it'll touch 11,150.Right now, its locked in a triangle pattern.

[Norenzo]

Nice looking chart Durgesh..

Do you mean you think it'll reach max wave c at 11,050 and not 11,150?

Big news tomorrow regarding the future of interest rates so we'll see which way it's heading.

Thanks

Norenzo

[durgesh147]

TS3 Sell setup of Major degree found while MTP is also showing that wave 3 of Minor degree is in progress. Looks a bit confusing.:confused:

[durgesh147]

Looks like DOW will cross 11500 in coming days.:rolleyes:

[Norenzo]

Hello Durgesh

Are you posting a short term or is this a mid term outlook chart?

Or do you mean 11500 by next week by saying in the coming days :eek:

Thanks

Norenzo

[durgesh147]

Hi Norenzo !!!

When i looked at the DOW daily chart, i guess its forming a bearish butterfly pattern.I guess not many people here know abt it.If DOW has a bearish candle formation today, short position will be good.Not to mention, as of now , there is no clear cut elliott wave structure on DOW.But we surely have a reliable harmonic pattern.:)

[durgesh147]

Here, i am posting some details on butterfly pattern.

[durgesh147]

I hope i got the butterfly pattern right this time.:)

[durgesh147]

Bearish Butterfly on Daily chart and TS1 sell on 15 min chart.:)

[Norenzo]

Thanks Durgesh :)

The butterfly principle is very interesting indeed..

The Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) is forming a similar bearish butterfly to the DOW Jones.

http://www.optionetics.com/images/articles/chris%202-22-06%201.gif

[durgesh147]

After a good TS1 sell , now we have a TS3 sell .:)

[durgesh147]

TS3 stopped out.

[durgesh147]

TS1 Sell again.

[durgesh147]

The previuos setup was stopped out.
Here is something interesting on the hourly chart.Looks like Dow will break past its previous high.Although the last hourly bar is still not complete.

[durgesh147]

Advanced wave C buy setup of minor degree unfolding.

[durgesh147]

So, now there is an advanced wave c buy setup with blue bar at WPT.

[durgesh147]

The previous setup i posted din trigger, now here is a TS2 found by MTP.

[durgesh147]

After the TS2 buy setup, Dow moved up and then corrected into a five wave sequence and is again ready to go up.

[durgesh147]

Advanced Wave C buy setup of minor degree.lets see how it goes.

[Norenzo]

See saw markets at the moment Durgesh and like you said there is no real clear cut Elliot pattern right now. I believe the latest set up was stopped out too.

I am staying on the sidelines until the markets show some consistency and traders stop climbing the wall of worry and sell just before closing..:rolleyes: :D

I believe at end of this month we will see a major correction. Looks like the dow is running out of steam and an intermediate top is in place.

Appreciate the ongoing charts my friend. :)

[durgesh147]

If i were trading DOW futures, i wud short it like hell.
Its gonna fall minimum 316 points in the coming days.
Its facing a stiff fibonacci resistance coupled with a series of inside days.
So, whts the take.
Short it !!!
Entry : 11239
Stop : Above today's high
Target : 10923 , 10811

A completed 5 wave sequence with Three Drives pattern marking up at 1.618 fibonacci ratios followed by a series of inside days.

It doesn't get better than this.

[durgesh147]

Here is the DOW chart with TIME .

[Norenzo]

That looks pretty convincing Durgesh :)

With the huge divergence between the Nasdaq QQQQ and the VIX index of volatility is also suggesting that a correction is overdue.

I think it's time to short. :D

Cheers

Norenzo

[Norenzo]

Looks like the dow closed down at exactly the 61% fibonacci on Friday.

Beautiful. :D

[durgesh147]

Hi Norenzo,

Monday will be a day to watch as its approaching a critical area where a support could emerge.Timewise, a bottom can form at/around 6 April.As of now shorts are safe and secure.Oscillators are also not giving any warning signals.

I always follow one principle, when in doubt, get out.

so far so good, DOW baby is going well so far.Look at the wedge formation.It looks like a sell on rally kind of market or throw ur longs on pullback.Stay liquid.:D

[durgesh147]

The critical support proved critical and held well:D
So, now i feel its ready for a quick rise to 11372-97 where this runup will lose its steam and give way to a good correction.

[durgesh147]

Well , i hope this free commentary is enjoyed and hopefully its better than those bragging idiots on CNBC who just speak for the sake of speaking and know nothing of market dynamics.;)

just kidding..;) :p :D

[Norenzo]

Hi Durgesh

Thanks for the continuing update and yes this commentary is very much enjoyed and appreciated, at least from my end :)

And yes, CNBC are full of sh*t. ;)

[Biggo]

Hi Durgesh

A bit more ammo for your Bearish view on the DOW

[durgesh147]

Hi Biggo,

Thanks for the bearish butterfly.I already have it in my mind.Tough days ahead for DOW ... bulls;)

[Norenzo]

Help Durgesh!!

These crazy complacent bulls just won't stop buying and the dow keeps going up ever since the Fed offered a few words of comfort regarding interest rates.
Have they seriously gone mad or are we looking at a different technical scenario unfolding?

:confused: :(

[durgesh147]

Well , here is a simple wave count.As far as the FED is concerned, they r liars.they make comments from time to time to move the markets in a desired manner.

[durgesh147]

Here is some interesting chart.On the weekly chart, wave 4 is a real complex correction comprising of a double zigzag and a running triangle.So, when this wave 5 completes, it will also complete the wave 5 on monthly charts.So, where do we go from there?Atleast to wave 4 on monthly charts i.e. 7000 levels.:) All time high (wave 3 ) on monthly charts on my data is 11908.5 .
slight break above it and the multi year correction kicks in.

my labellings of this wave 4 can be a bit awkward but the patterns are obvious and clear.

Now , if we look at the fundamentals, the trillion dollar deficit is well known.
Rising commodiy prices lead to inflation.Inflation calls for rising interest rates.rising interest rates bring recession.So, all fit in nicely with these counts.:D

[Norenzo]

Hello Durgesh

So it's possible that the dow current wave 5 will reach 11900's before correcting, is that what you are saying?

Usually the last week of April during the 2nd year of the Presidential cycle is negative for the markets.

Norenzo :)

[judge]

I really appreciate the posts people are making on the Dow. I trade the Dow and its componenets on an EOD basis and currently have aggressive (e.g. early) shorts on the index and 5 stocks with another 2 shorts being indicated today. Whilst I may get burnt on these trades (yesterday was a bit warm) it does seem like the market is setting up for a fall in the next few weeks.

Judge

[durgesh147]

Here is my simple wave count on the daily chart which falls in sync with the weekly.I have often noted expanding triangles occur in wave 2 .Why ? I dunno.

Be careful on the dates .there are two dates for the wave 5 high to unfold.
pricewise, i just assumed that wave 5 = wave 1

Wave 4 doesnot retrace back into wave 1 territory and rule of alternation holds well in my simple counts.So, all-in-all, all Elliott Guidelines have been fulfilled.Lets see what holds next...

[durgesh147]

I think this one is more appropriate.And going by this , we are in Wave 3 of intermediate of Wave 3 of Major.

Even i have some difficulty in believing this :eek: ..but as its said...

If its too good to be true, then probably it is.

The target zone is real tight... 12108-12129 .

[durgesh147]

DOW is ready to move to 11761 .As far as the counts are concerned, what i have labelled as Intermediate wave 3 might be wave 1 of Intermediate 3.the point is instead of rigging on wave counts, i am concentrating on the next possible resistance.I feel the correction is over.In strong trending markets, the corrections are sharp,swift and last about 3 days.

[durgesh147]

The recent rally has unfolded in 5 waves....

[durgesh147]

On hourly charts, the 5 swings are clean and clear...

[durgesh147]

Taking it down on 15 minute charts, wave 1 or A of higher degree has been completed.Wave 2 looks to have unfolded as a flat correction....