Forex

[durgesh147]

As a matter of interest, can anyone tell me why this thread is not on the Forex Forum ? Not a major problem but perhapse it might be helpful - btw I posted the same possible EurJpn set up into the Forex Forum this morning as well - I hope that with Durgesh's input I will do better on that one if it fires than I did on my first Forex trade last week which stopped out :)

Hi Chris,

Losers are an unavoidable part of trading.The trick is to keep them small and minimize the number of losers.I do have my share of losers.Now, they are minimised with experience.If you use good position sizing, losers wont bother you .

Well, when i started this thread, i din know its gonna be so popular...I started it in Trade of the Day as most of the setups i posted live and earlier i was trading much on hourly setups...:)

[durgesh147]

Think of the devil and its there.Stopped out in CHFJPY ...:mad: :(

[Eddo]

Ah thanks for that - it was no problem just an observation. Yes, like you I have learnt over the years to keep my risk to reward low. I work on a risk of 1 R with a potential reward on the trade of at least 2 (3 wherever possible). Using a max 2% of my trading capital, this formula has kept me out of trouble and thankfully I now understand that even with only 45-50% of trades being winners it is still more than possible to make money.

Thanks again for your input Durgesh, whilst I am new to Forex trading (I think your posts were the thing that made me look at it), I have been trading shares, INDU etc with MTP for about four years now and am a big fan - you just have to be patient and wait for the right looking setups to come along. :) and when they do ......... pounce

[durgesh147]

The market relieved me off all my positions.There is something fishy abt it.looks like, its on a stop hunting mission.:D

Now, its time to return back to the drawing board and figure out, whts happening...:confused:

[durgesh147]

Here is a quick look at the swissy to figure out , possibly whts going on.
I think, now its time to wait for a day or two to see where is the market headed.

[durgesh147]

On the 4h chart, the software automatically picks up an advanced wave C setup of major degree which goes well with the Double Zigzag correction i am thinking of.:)

[durgesh147]

Here is another look at Swissy.If the market unfolds like this, there might be a big upmove in Dollar.Chances are that, it might.:)

[durgesh147]

TS1 triggered.

[NHN123]

Buy set up on 240 min chart.

Daily trend up (consildating)
weekly trend up (consildating)

Buy 117.85 (stop)
Protective Stop 117.52
Initial Targets 118.94 / 119.60 / 120.94

[NHN123]

Buy set up on 240 min chart.

Daily trend up (consildating)
weekly trend up (consildating)

Buy 117.85 (stop)
Protective Stop 117.52
Initial Targets 118.94 / 119.60 / 120.94

Durgesh,

Do you think that if the minor high on this chart here would be a good place (if breached) to move the stop to break-even?

Thanks

[NHN123]

May be time soon to look for sell set ups on EURUSD on daily charts

Look at the weekly chart.A bit more upside, then maybe a wave 1 down.... poss down to the 1.15 ish level everyone has been waiting for.

time will tell. Would be nice to have some decisive movement, and get out of the narrow range we have been in for what seems like ages now...

[NHN123]

I missed this one.... It is with the daily trend

Anyone else in on it?

[brs910]

Yeah I'm on it. There were a few TS3 alerts this morning but only the last one triggered an entry. Long @ 92.16 and stop @ 92.01

[NHN123]

Yeah I'm on it. There were a few TS3 alerts this morning but only the last one triggered an entry. Long @ 92.16 and stop @ 92.01

Hi

What data do you use? This wasn't an auto set up on mine; I use tradestation

[brs910]

What data do you use? This wasn't an auto set up on mine; I use tradestation

I use eSignal and trade on GFT's Dealbook. Just checked my alerts and i had TS3 buys on the 60 minute chart at 2pm 12pm & 11am. The last alert at 2pm was the only one that triggered an entry and had the best RR ratio.

[NHN123]

Durgesh /anyone,

What do you think to this set up?

I'm not crazy on it, cos of the big down before the small up.

However, If you look on the daily chart, there is a wave 1 or A up, and is resting on the wave 2 or B support, which puts me in two minds....

any comments very welcome.

Thanks
Nick

[NHN123]

Durgesh,

Could you please help me. I have looked at the USDJPY weekly chart, to try and see where the rangeboundness will end....

Possible wave E correction, following a wave 1 up(see chart).

How would one calculate possible wave E support please?

Thanks
Nick

[NHN123]

Possible trade set up.

[durgesh147]

Durgesh,

Could you please help me. I have looked at the USDJPY weekly chart, to try and see where the rangeboundness will end....

Possible wave E correction, following a wave 1 up(see chart).

How would one calculate possible wave E support please?

Thanks
Nick

Hi Nick,
I have a bearish outlook on USDJPY.I dunno whts holding this pair up.Maybe, the market is awaiting some news to act as a trigger.I dont see ur counts to come into play.As of now, i am keeping aside from this pair.

as far as wave E target is concerned, use the FIBP button in MTP.In there click on projections, E target=0.618 projection of BC from D

Hope you get it,

Regards,

[NHN123]

Hi Nick,
I have a bearish outlook on USDJPY.I dunno whts holding this pair up.Maybe, the market is awaiting some news to act as a trigger.I dont see ur counts to come into play.As of now, i am keeping aside from this pair.

as far as wave E target is concerned, use the FIBP button in MTP.In there click on projections, E target=0.618 projection of BC from D

Hope you get it,

Regards,
Thanks, Durgesh...

Why is your view bearish? Are you basing this on fundamentals? if so, USD or JPY.

These FX markets are being a pain at the moment. Springs are coiling hopefully...

[durgesh147]

Hi Nick,

I am bearsih on USDJPY because of the monthly charts.i feel it'll be making new multi year lows in coming years.Right now, its at wave E of wave 4 on monthly charts.
Whenever buying comes in JPY, its swift.



Look at this one.Ready to drop big.Just waiting for confirmations.

[NHN123]

Hi Nick,

I am bearsih on USDJPY because of the monthly charts.i feel it'll be making new multi year lows in coming years.Right now, its at wave E of wave 4 on monthly charts.
Whenever buying comes in JPY, its swift.



Look at this one.Ready to drop big.Just waiting for confirmations.

Thanks. I can't see that on the monthly chart. I'm looking at it now... bit lost... Sorry to trouble you further, would you mind posting that chart? Really would appreciate it!

As for the EURUSD, I've been waiting for that, too. I was looking at the weekly chart, and putting the WPTs on the daily chart (which works out the same as the major set up you posted here). Fingers crossed. I was thinking it could turn into a wave 3 up, given the rate outlook and recent comments by fed officials. However, today's action could prove otherwise....

cheers

[durgesh147]

Hi Nick,

This is the monthly chart i had posted some pages back.

[NHN123]

Hi Nick,

This is the monthly chart i had posted some pages back.

Sorry, Durgesh. I didn't realise you had posted it - I've been busy moving house, so hav't been keeping an eye on things...

That makes sense now. I'm not very familiar with ABCDE corrections, that's why I couldn't see what you meant - thanks.

On a similar note, EURUSD is at the end of a poss wave 4 correction down (I think) if you look at the monthly charts (which fits the weak USD view on the USDJPY). However, it does not support the weekly/major set up on the EURUSD.

I just wonder how you decide when to look at monthly charts / weekly charts for a view on the direction of the market...

I appreciate that you are much more educated when it comes to this sort of thing, and that there is a degree of "Art" rather than science, and would be interested to know what you think.

Thanks again
Nick

[NHN123]

Durgesh,

This EURUSD trade set up, how would you trade this? If today is a reversal bar, would you sell below that, or would you wait for a impulsive down swing and then sell if an ABC appears?

Thanks

[durgesh147]

Durgesh,

This EURUSD trade set up, how would you trade this? If today is a reversal bar, would you sell below that, or would you wait for a impulsive down swing and then sell if an ABC appears?

Thanks

I guess its gonna be an inside bar.So, looking to play on the breakout.in the morning look at the 4h charts as well, if you get an inside bar there, put ur stop accordingly.

Will update on it tomm.:)

[NHN123]

I guess its gonna be an inside bar.So, looking to play on the breakout.in the morning look at the 4h charts as well, if you get an inside bar there, put ur stop accordingly.

Will update on it tomm.:)

Good morning Durgesh,

We do have an inside bar on the 4H chart. The high of the last one is 2330 (16:00 Bar).

Would you suggest moving the stop there? Maybe too close?

I didn't get an inside day yesterday but the day before was a reversal bar, with the data I use (SBFX, now as they have 0:00 - 0:00 london time, whereas on a 10pm close chart, no reversal bar....), so I am in - Short at 1.2284.

Are you in?

Thanks
Nick

[NHN123]

Hello all,

Can anyone get data for USDHUF (hungarian forint) into MTP?

I have stumbled across this set up, and tried to work it out using fib levels, but I cannot get the reversal bars....

Take a look, the weekly trend looks to be up after a correction down from a 5 wave up.

[NHN123]

Durgesh,

I am slightly worried about this EURUSD position.

I think that all the up moves are impulsive and the downs are corrective.

Do you think we could get another ABC down correction then a wave up to the Typ wave C on the major set up, which would stop us out of the current.

What I am thinking to do, is to see if we get an ABC down, get out and then wait for an up to the typ wave C major set up, then look at it again.

What do you think? I'm not the best at this analysis game, so would appreciate your view.

Thanks in advance

Nick

[durgesh147]

Hi Nick,

Why are you worried ? Even by ur count, a downward C is pending.:)

[NHN123]

Hi Nick,

Why are you worried ? Even by ur count, a downward C is pending.:)
Worried is the wrong word....

Here's a possible outcome.

Considering today's comments by russian and swedish bank officials, it hasn't shot up too much, which is moderately comforting.

Anyhow, this possible outcome takes us up into the typ wave C of the major/weekly set up.

[durgesh147]

Nick,

here are two charts.4H chart with my simple elliott counts.In that you can see, Euro cooled off at Minimum Wave C wpt.The other one is hourly where you can see a potential TS1.

Now, the point is whether it'll go to typical Wave C , can't say sure.lets wait for next week and see how deep the selling goes.

all in case, if i dont get stopped out in this short trade...:D

[durgesh147]

Here is the hourly chart.

[NHN123]

Nick,

here are two charts.4H chart with my simple elliott counts.In that you can see, Euro cooled off at Minimum Wave C wpt.The other one is hourly where you can see a potential TS1.

Now, the point is whether it'll go to typical Wave C , can't say sure.lets wait for next week and see how deep the selling goes.

all in case, if i dont get stopped out in this short trade...:D
Hi Durgesh,

I was just looking at the hourly chart myself. Nice abc there.

I guess we'll just wait and see how it reacts if it gets down to any of these wave C levels.

My stop is @1.2400, anyhow, so plenty of room for now....

Thanks

[durgesh147]

Loonie is having a long ponnie tail.....:D

[richbois]

Hello all,

Can anyone get data for USDHUF (hungarian forint) into MTP?

I have stumbled across this set up, and tried to work it out using fib levels, but I cannot get the reversal bars....

Take a look, the weekly trend looks to be up after a correction down from a 5 wave up.

if you need the data I can get it in ESignal and forward it to you

let me know what time frame you would like

[NHN123]

if you need the data I can get it in ESignal and forward it to you

let me know what time frame you would like

Very kind of you - thanks.

Daily and weekly please. My email is nibbsy2002uk@yahoo.co.uk

have a good weekend!

[durgesh147]

Sell Euro and go to Miami. Birdwatching with Sun,sea and sand...;)

[Biggo]

Sell Euro and go to Miami. Birdwatching with Sun,sea and sand...;)

Hi Durgesh

Do we all get an invite to your holiday home in Miami ;) ;)

No seriousally. The EUR/USD is at the min wtp at the moment do you think there is room for some more up movement to the Typical wtp , that was my thought but I have been wrong before & would appreciate your view

Cheers :)

[durgesh147]

Dollar Index falling in sync with Euro....

EURO bulls..... ??? :D

[NHN123]

Possible EURCHF to look out for, though it hasn't reached a WPT quite yet.

You can see the set up on daily chart too... could be a nice TS1 sell

[durgesh147]

A goodlooking advanced wave c of minor....

[NHN123]

look out for this one.

Wave 1orA intermediate looks impulsive (5wave minor...)

Lets see if we get the dip needed for a TS1 buy on hourly charts.

[NHN123]

Durgesh,

What do you think of this sort of idea?

You and me have both posted possible buy set ups for GBP strength in pairs, I have posted a possible EUR weakness trade set up; now I look on hourly EURGBP, it is at the POSSIBLE end of a minor 5 wave up.

Do you think that EURGBP is a possible sell too?

Just an idea....

[durgesh147]

Hi Nick,
This is wht i think on ur EURGBP chart...

[NHN123]

A goodlooking advanced wave c of minor....

Durgesh,

Can an inside bar have the same high or low as the previous engulfing bar? Or should the range be totally inside?

Thanks
Nick

[durgesh147]

Durgesh,

Can an inside bar have the same high or low as the previous engulfing bar? Or should the range be totally inside?

Thanks
Nick

I think both are tradable.They represent the same thing...congestion... and in both cases one is playing the breakout.

[NHN123]

I think both are tradable.They represent the same thing...congestion... and in both cases one is playing the breakout.

Thanks, Durgesh.

Durgesh, are you still bearish of EURUSD, by the way?

Cheers

[durgesh147]

Thanks, Durgesh.

Durgesh, are you still bearish of EURUSD, by the way?

Cheers

Well, i closed my EURO short for a loss.Its essnetial to keep the losses in control before they mount up like a hill.As far as my bearishness is concerned, i am still bearish on euro.
the point is , i see Cable going to 1.8100 levels, so its wise to close short on EURO.Moreover, on weekly EURo will be making a TS1 sell where it can run upto MAX C wpt and still be bearish.In that case, it might run upto 1.29 levels.

Well, this time Miami sun was scorching.... will try again...later... :(

[NHN123]

Well, i closed my EURO short for a loss.Its essnetial to keep the losses in control before they mount up like a hill.As far as my bearishness is concerned, i am still bearish on euro.
the point is , i see Cable going to 1.8100 levels, so its wise to close short on EURO.Moreover, on weekly EURo will be making a TS1 sell where it can run upto MAX C wpt and still be bearish.In that case, it might run upto 1.29 levels.

Well, this time Miami sun was scorching.... will try again...later... :(

Agreed....

I remember once, on a different subject, you said that in your experience, 1hour set ups frequently fail mid US session. What time would you stop considering 1 hour set ups?

I ask because the GBPJPY set up I posted earlier may come into play by the close of the 3pm bar (london time), which will mean that it could come in too late to be considered....

Thanks as always
Nick

[durgesh147]

After getting stopped out..... i am again long in it at 1.7840 with stop below 1.7800 for target of 1.8167

Here are two charts.... one 4h chart ...
On the 15 min chart...wave C of wave 4 on 4h chart is explained in detail...maybe thats why i got stopped out...

[durgesh147]

Now, EURO is at typical WPT.Whts amazing is , when i join high to high and low to low... the dates are so near.... indicating a change in trend .

Timewise, pricewise and oscillator wise, its all thumbs down to EURO .... the bears will come next week....???

[NHN123]

Now, EURO is at typical WPT.Whts amazing is , when i join high to high and low to low... the dates are so near.... indicating a change in trend .

Timewise, pricewise and oscillator wise, its all thumbs down to EURO .... the bears will come next week....???

so would you trade this as a daily? Or wait for the weekly confirmation? Looks "text book" on the weekly charts, but not so pretty on the daily (major). I'm assuming that major set ups will usually translate to a intermediate set up on a larger time frame. I don't want to sound critical, but I recall you saying some time ago that finding a set up in a smaller time frame to reduce risk wasn't very successful for you....

I see what you are saying though, cos all the divergence etc... is on the daily charts.

I'm just curious to know how reliable major set ups are. Once again, can I say that I am not criticising, I just want your opinion cos I value it.

Thanks

[durgesh147]

Well...its ponny tail grew really bigger.... the TS1 buy i was waiting never triggered....

[durgesh147]

so would you trade this as a daily? Or wait for the weekly confirmation? Looks "text book" on the weekly charts, but not so pretty on the daily (major). I'm assuming that major set ups will usually translate to a intermediate set up on a larger time frame. I don't want to sound critical, but I recall you saying some time ago that finding a set up in a smaller time frame to reduce risk wasn't very successful for you....

I see what you are saying though, cos all the divergence etc... is on the daily charts.

I'm just curious to know how reliable major set ups are. Once again, can I say that I am not criticising, I just want your opinion cos I value it.

Thanks

Well, your observation is pretty good... major on daily is intermediate on weekly....

and this time i am going to trade it by the 4h chart....i'll short it from the 4h chart....

here is an interesting thing.... All the BIG BOYS who were bullish on Dollar have suddenly turned their views upside down..... everybody is expecting int rate hikes in US to stop...maybe they are right...but i am not a fundamental trader...:D

one interesting thing i just noticed...on both charts ... a date comes up 2 May.... is it a coincidence or market mechanics....

[durgesh147]

Well....Swissy is also showing a date .... 3 May:confused:

Looks like , some surprise is waiting next week...

[NHN123]

Well, your observation is pretty good... major on daily is intermediate on weekly....

and this time i am going to trade it by the 4h chart....i'll short it from the 4h chart....

here is an interesting thing.... All the BIG BOYS who were bullish on Dollar have suddenly turned their views upside down..... everybody is expecting int rate hikes in US to stop...maybe they are right...but i am not a fundamental trader...:D

one interesting thing i just noticed...on both charts ... a date comes up 2 May.... is it a coincidence or market mechanics....

Personally, I think fundamentals are a waste of time anyway - things are priced in ages before the average self employed trader gets to hear about them. And, more importantly, the market (big boys) only takes notice of what it wants to. Look at the last few days - strong US numbers, but dollar weakness soon after. And if you remember the USD weakness of 2004, the only thing driving it was the trade deficit, which is growing faster than ever, yet it is not a "problem" anymore. And as for what the bank officials say, well, forget it! They say what they want to effect the markets to make their villas in tuscany cheaper.... That's my rant over with

So a technical view is the best way, in my opinion.

When you say you'll trade it on the 4H, do you mean that you'll use the weekly resistance, get a reversal bar and short it below that? You're a brave man!

[durgesh147]

TS1 sell on hourly .... and i feel its going into wave 5 down on daily....

Only problem is the timing.... hourly setups at this hour haven't proved good...:(

[NHN123]

Durgesh,

Do you think this is a near miss, or do you think it's better to wait for a bit more upside?

Could be at 2orB on the daily chart

Thanks

[NHN123]

Maybe a tradable wave 2 for wave C or 3 coming here...

Downside not sustainable perhaps in the short term, as it was political.

Might be a bit ahead of myself here, but thought it was worth pointing out

[durgesh147]

Durgesh,

Do you think this is a near miss, or do you think it's better to wait for a bit more upside?

Could be at 2orB on the daily chart

Thanks

I think its in wave 5 on daily chart.On 4h chart, its in wave 3.Its just my view.

[durgesh147]

Maybe a tradable wave 2 for wave C or 3 coming here...

Downside not sustainable perhaps in the short term, as it was political.

Might be a bit ahead of myself here, but thought it was worth pointing out

well, i also think the same....

[NHN123]

Maybe a tradable wave 2 for wave C or 3 coming here...

Downside not sustainable perhaps in the short term, as it was political.

Might be a bit ahead of myself here, but thought it was worth pointing out

Here's what I think to do. Play it on the hourly charts. Buy above a reversal bar (not the bar we're in now - too big). To confirm support at 61.8% retracement level. Go for wave C targets.

What do you think, Durgesh?

[NHN123]

I think its in wave 5 on daily chart.On 4h chart, its in wave 3.Its just my view.

I see what you are saying. But, if you look at the minor make up of your wave 4 on the daily chart, I think it has 5 minor waves, hence a possible impulsive move, and the up is definitely an ABC...

Listen to us. We're like proper EW analysts - disagreeing..... Also, a triple short term top on the 4H chart is there. I was hoping for it to go up a bit more, but might trade it cos of the triple top....

Maybe I'm wrong. We'll have to see...

Cheers

[NHN123]

Here's what I think to do. Play it on the hourly charts. Buy above a reversal bar (not the bar we're in now - too big). To confirm support at 61.8% retracement level. Go for wave C targets.

What do you think, Durgesh?
That's that plan scuppered.... went up too far too quickly. I was being patient, as I thought to buy it around the 61.8% level. Nevermind I'll wait for a better one...

[NHN123]

Passed this cos selling gold is crazy, but going to plan so far, will be interested to see how it turns out, not that I'll make anything from it...

[durgesh147]

Good short trade setting up in Cable...

[durgesh147]

TS1 Sell on NZDUSD

this time, i'll take it :)

[durgesh147]

Hi Steve,

When i open the Cable Daily chart and check the Elliot Wave counts on the latest version, on major degree it shows an advanced ABC... on minor it shows waves from 1to 4 but the pivots are not well connected and wave 5 of minor is not showing...

When i open the same chart in the older version, it shows waves 1-3 of intermediate... this wave 3 of int clearly subdividing into minor 5 waves... while on major it shows an ABCDE wave strucrure...

now ignoring the major counts, my point is why doesn't the latest version show waves of int degree while the older version is doing it...

Are we missing something in the upgrade... ?

thanks,
Durgesh

[durgesh147]

A Low risk high reward trade...

[NHN123]

I'm kicking myself, cos I got out of this one this morning, for a few reasons - It looked like it was going to break to the upside after the inside bar. So I got out with a small profit. Then, this happened. Anyhow, I have learnt my lesson here, and gained some confidence in my trading methods.. so not all is lost...

Nearly at the 1 or A target, so I would be looking for hourly reversals now - if I was still in...

[NHN123]

I'm kicking myself, cos I got out of this one this morning, for a few reasons - It looked like it was going to break to the upside after the inside bar. So I got out with a small profit. Then, this happened. Anyhow, I have learnt my lesson here, and gained some confidence in my trading methods.. so not all is lost...

Nearly at the 1 or A target, so I would be looking for hourly reversals now - if I was still in...

I would be putting my stop above the last complete hour bar, which would be at 1.5740 - still would be R/R 2.8

[soap3000]

Anyone else working this...?

Haven't traded too many MTP setup's.

This is travelling nicely, have moved Stops to break even + a beer

See how we go....

[soap3000]

One for the watchlist perhaps.

See what happens after this bar completes.

[NHN123]

One for the watchlist perhaps.

See what happens after this bar completes.
Not sure on this one. I said yesterday I didn't like the downside on this one, as it was all about politics.... Here's what I think on the daily charts. I fancy the 4H to be a wave 3 not C.

However, I would not want to influence you at all... just my opinion

Good to see someone else posting set ups by the way - thanks!

[soap3000]

I see - I was not following the bigger picture....

Daily looks to be emabarking on wave 5 long - so shorts on the 4H would be dodgy.

Thanks NHN - been watching from the wings for a while - about time I joined the fray!

EURCHF Daily travelling nicely....

[NHN123]

I see - I was not following the bigger picture....

Daily looks to be emabarking on wave 5 long - so shorts on the 4H would be dodgy.

Thanks NHN - been watching from the wings for a while - about time I joined the fray!

EURCHF Daily travelling nicely....

One here to look out for.

EURGBP on daily chart came off at wave 1 or A, so I think we are in wave 2 or B.
On the 4 hourly charts, we're in a nice looking ABC, with the up swing looking impulsive. I plan to trade the 4 hourly charts after a bit more downside to the Typ wave C, also where a trendline lies, and not too distance from fib retracement.. anyway, look at the pictures, I think it explains it better than I can

[NHN123]

Durgesh / Steve / anyone who knows

inside bar question: Should inside bar breakouts only be traded in the direction of the main trend?

And how about using them for stops when you are in profit, to avoid being hit by a breakout in the opposite direction to your trade? (which will of course be a reversal...)

Thanks
Nick

[NHN123]

Nothing to do with FX (though I'll make a cheap link to it with USDCAD), but I thought it was a good way to show that if you can drive MTP properly, how accurate it can be....

This is why I love MTP - this set up may or may not work out - but it nailed the high perfectly, so if you were long anyway, like the rest of the world is, would have been a great place to bank your profit! I have been looking at this one for a couple of weeks, to see where it woud stop - and look where it did, right where MTP said it would - superb!

[durgesh147]

Durgesh / Steve / anyone who knows

inside bar question: Should inside bar breakouts only be traded in the direction of the main trend?

And how about using them for stops when you are in profit, to avoid being hit by a breakout in the opposite direction to your trade? (which will of course be a reversal...)

Thanks
Nick

Sure, it can be used for protective stops.

[NHN123]

Sure, it can be used for protective stops.
thanks man!

[NHN123]

One here to look out for.

EURGBP on daily chart came off at wave 1 or A, so I think we are in wave 2 or B.
On the 4 hourly charts, we're in a nice looking ABC, with the up swing looking impulsive. I plan to trade the 4 hourly charts after a bit more downside to the Typ wave C, also where a trendline lies, and not too distance from fib retracement.. anyway, look at the pictures, I think it explains it better than I can

Looks like this is one to be ignored for now. Have changed my mind on the daily charts. I think we are in a wave 4 correction on the dailys, which is on the c leg down. So would not trade the earlier one yet.... then again, it's not a perfect wave count - so unclear at the moment. Also, there are contradicticing counts on weekly and monthlys - so I'm confused!

On that note - I'm signing off for the week - don't forget may day this monday, so volumes will be thin in london, at least - not sure if its a holiday in the rest of the world?

[AndyvB]

No holiday in Canada/ USA on May 1st

[durgesh147]

Price,Pattern and Time , all coming together.
Now, its time to make one more try to Miami .....;)

[durgesh147]

Had i seen this monthly chart before, i would not have missed this blowout move.From weekly, i was biased towards the short side, but the bigger picture says something else which falls in line with the ongoing fundamentals.
EURO is headed for 1.42 + levels .

Well , the chart quality is a bit poor as i had to scale it down because of file size limit.... :(

Buy on dips... and its never too late....;)

[NHN123]

Had i seen this monthly chart before, i would not have missed this blowout move.From weekly, i was biased towards the short side, but the bigger picture says something else which falls in line with the ongoing fundamentals.
EURO is headed for 1.42 + levels .

Well , the chart quality is a bit poor as i had to scale it down because of file size limit.... :(

Buy on dips... and its never too late....;)

Interesting.

Now, I was looking at this a week or so ago. But thought I was looking too larger scale, so dismissed it.

My thoughts were different though, as I was so bearish this pair on the weekly.

I thought that the 5 wave down on the weekly could be a 1 or A on the monthly, the ABC up on the weekly was 2 or B on the monthly, and I was thinking that the move down on the weekly chart following the ABC, could be the C or 3 (wave 4 correction, too, on the monthly).

See the charts...

1.2891 is ext wave C on weekly AND 61.8% retracement of wave 1 or A on monthly.

So, I think we can say that EURUSD is going up to 1.29 ish, maybe down again to, say 1.10/1.05, then up to the 1.42 levels for wave 5 on monthly

[durgesh147]

TS3 Sell. So far , so good.

[NHN123]

TS3 Sell. So far , so good.
Who supplies your data, Durgesh? It is so different to mine....

thanks

[Gartley222]

Who supplies your data, Durgesh? It is so different to mine....

thanks

Me too ! :)

[durgesh147]

Ripe for a pullback ???

[NHN123]

Ripe for a pullback ???
Also, at min wave 3 on daily, and at min wave C on weekly, but slipped between 38.2% and 50% retracement of monthly wave 1 or A up.

Overall, looks good - thanks Durgesh. Might give this one a go...

[durgesh147]

Here is the complete USDJPY trade, all by Steve teachings... using the wave 1 or A WPT as target, though he doesnot advise picking the end of wave 5's

Lets see how it goes.

[durgesh147]

EURO might be topping out today.From monthly, i guess we are in wave 5 and on daily the market is moving up into 3 swings.So, its possible only in Ending Diagonal triangles.So, i assume that probably wave 1 of that diagonal triangle might be completing today.we are seeing a sell off at the resistance zone , wht looks like an inverted hammer although the bar is not complete.Timewise, we are just 1 day ahead of the projected date.

So, its time to be ready for short positions in EURO for wave A,2 of ending diagonal.

[durgesh147]

This pair is begging to be shorted.... but as of now... i cant decide the entry and stop levels...

Looks like an Ending diagonal in wave C

[richbois]

This pair is begging to be shorted.... but as of now... i cant decide the entry and stop levels...

Looks like an Ending diagonal in wave C


Just to let you know I just got a long signal on this pair

Having said that I dont like the way the ABC looks

[NHN123]

Personally I don't like trading 1Hour set ups, but for those of you who do, here's a possible. Maybe trade it as a wave 5, good RR

[NHN123]

To the contrary of the 1H set up EURCHF. Here's a daily:

After reaching the wave C targets, of what looks now like a wave 4 correction on dailys, a buy set up could be unfolding. Early in the day, but have a look later tonight....

[durgesh147]

EURAUD --- Due for a violent move up ???

[durgesh147]

Same pair on a hourly chart

[NHN123]

4H sell on this pair to look out for.

Not reached the wave C wpt yet, but if it does, it could be a wave 3 (in my opinion).

On daily charts, we are maybe in wave 5 up, but its not pretty and breaks EW rules. so might be best ignored ???

And it's never too late to sell the GBP, with the fundamentals in mind.

Back to the tech picture on 4H, wave 1 or A looks impulsive (5 minor down swings), this poss wave 2 looks correctional.

[durgesh147]

I think, now its time to get some short in EURO.
Assuming that yesterday EURO topped out as i posted earlier, here is a quick short trade in EURO from 15Min chart with stop above 1.2688

Lets see how it goes...

[NHN123]

15 min buy set up

[NHN123]

Durgesh / anyone with a view on this,

What do you think to this?

[soap3000]

Durgesh / anyone with a view on this,

What do you think to this?

EURCAD Daily

Only just spotted this now - Sheesh you found this half a day ago...

The fib time clusters were bang on with wave A (12th APR) and wave B (28th APR) - the crystal ball is still a little cloudy as to the end of wave C.

sometime between 12th to 15th of May perhaps...

[NHN123]

EURCAD Daily

Only just spotted this now - Sheesh you found this half a day ago...

The fib time clusters were bang on with wave A (12th APR) and wave B (28th APR) - the crystal ball is still a little cloudy as to the end of wave C.

sometime between 12th to 15th of May perhaps...

I must read up on this time analysis!

If you use it and Durgesh uses it it must have some use....

I can see what I'll be doing, when the wife stops getting me to help her do the decorating - honestly, you'd think she could reach the ceilings herself!

[durgesh147]

USDCAD - looks like Loonie has bottomed out for short term, at a solid support and just one day ahead of the projected date...

I missed the bus as i was out of town:( ... now looking for a pullback on 4h charts if there is any...

[durgesh147]

TS3 sell in making in USDJPY

[durgesh147]

TS3 sell triggered. Since, the trade setup bar is an inside bar, i have changed the entry and stop levels.

[Eddo]

Me too - just triggered

[NHN123]

I've moved my stop to b/e on the USDJPY now, being the scaredy cat that I am. Has reached it's 100% risk area.

Shame about my long EURCHF posistion! Swiss franc is very strong across the board today!

[vyt]

on USDJPY H1 we've just got TS1 to buy from 113.55 so what we are supposed to do in this situation , having sell position open on ABC H4 from 113.75 .

[NHN123]

on USDJPY H1 we've just got TS1 to buy from 113.55 so what we are supposed to do in this situation , having sell position open on ABC H4 from 113.75 .

Would you mind posting the chart. I can't see a set up on the 1H chart....

Many thanks indeed

[Eddo]

Yes I saw that as well - its attached below.

When that happens I tend to trust in the longer time frame, so I am sticking with the 4 Hr short but I have stops in at B/E

[Eddo]

Actually I have to be away from my desk all day tomorrow so I have placed a OCO order to close at B/E for a nil trade or 120.00 - whichever comes first - for a nice little earner - just hope it the later !! ;)

[NHN123]

Would you mind posting the chart. I can't see a set up on the 1H chart....

Many thanks indeed
wowser.

Doesn't look nice to me - I guess that'swhy I couldn't see it. There's no swing on the B, and way past the WPTs.

Thanks, chaps

[vyt]

Sorry , having problem to attach the screenshot , that is the one from Chris ..

[NHN123]

Sorry , having problem to attach the screenshot , that is the one from Chris ..
No probs.

It's jumpy isn't it - every time a blink it's 10 ticks up or down! You can tell it's payrolls tomorrow!

[NHN123]

No probs.

It's jumpy isn't it - every time a blink it's 10 ticks up or down! You can tell it's payrolls tomorrow!
stopped out for b/e!

[durgesh147]

I think this is useful for all of us here.

[NHN123]

I think this is useful for all of us here.
Good advice - I was just blaming "them", as it happens.

Thanks!

[durgesh147]

All those people who trade these European Crosses, keep an eye on this one.

[durgesh147]

Watch out for this Biggie.I am already in from 4h chart.
So, all-in-all i have 3 open positions... USDJPY Short,USDCAD Long,EURAUD Long .

[NHN123]

Watch out for this Biggie.I am already in from 4h chart.
So, all-in-all i have 3 open positions... USDJPY Short,USDCAD Long,EURAUD Long .
Am watching this one too. I was unsure cos of the B swing, wasn't really a swing.

I'm torn between that and the EURGBP to take.....

[NHN123]

I can't get data into MTP for this one. Nor can I trade it....

Thought some of you might be able to, so if you can, check it out.

[vyt]

EURGBP daily , was it found using scanner , mine does not discover this one ABC .

[NHN123]

EURGBP daily , was it found using scanner , mine does not discover this one ABC .
Try and scan for advanced ABC only in EOD (turn all restrictions and other options off).

This way, even if the prior swings don't fit to get a TS1/2/3 set up.

You will get more set ups, some will not be right at all, so make sure that the ABCs are correctional

[NHN123]

Watch out for this Biggie.I am already in from 4h chart.
So, all-in-all i have 3 open positions... USDJPY Short,USDCAD Long,EURAUD Long .

We have data out on the AUD tonight. I think I'll pass this one, as I'll be in bed, and there's every chance of getting in and stopped out straight away in the storm....


Date GMT Release Period Consensus Prior
05-May-2006 01:30 Building Approvals (Australia) Mar 1.0% 2.2%

05-May-2006 01:30 Trade Balance (Australia) Mar -1300M -595M

[abc_trader]

why mtpredictor was unable to detect this obvious bullish ABC on the H4 EURUSD earlier today ?

http://www.slibe.com/images/523183ce-MyScreenHunter_j.jpg (http://www.slibe.com)

[soap3000]

why mtpredictor was unable to detect this obvious bullish ABC on the H4 EURUSD earlier today ?

http://www.slibe.com/images/523183ce-MyScreenHunter_j.jpg (http://www.slibe.com)

ABC you're a genius - how do you get those WPT's to show up on Metatrader...?

[abc_trader]

ABC you're a genius - how do you get those WPT's to show up on Metatrader...?


well, I've mtpredictor EOD and using metatrader to export the data to mtpredictor to scan for setups but I just wanted to use the big capabilities of metatrader and not just use it to export data, metatrader has powerfull features such as "metatrader mobile" and the ability to send email alerts and use of expert advisors which will automatically trade the setups and also it has huge selection of indicators all for free.

finding the abc pattern using metatrader isn't a big problem, the problem was as u noticed is to find the WPT(min,typical,max) of wave C (the end of the correction) , also finding the WPT of the new which starts after the correction and resume the impulsive wave that occured before the correction started.

calculating these 2 WPTs isn't mentioned in mtpredictor but if you conentrate in the charts you can know how they are calculated.

I created a metatrader indicator which will find the abc/WPTs and I can say and always compare its results with mtpredictor and it is 95% accurate

also have a metatrader script which acts as a scanner to find setups, didn't start yet the expert advisor as I currently prefer to trade the setups manually so I can look at symmetry and other indicators but may create one and forward test it

[soap3000]

well, I've mtpredictor EOD and using metatrader to export the data to mtpredictor to scan for setups but I just wanted to use the big capabilities of metatrader and not just use it to export data, metatrader has powerfull features such as "metatrader mobile" and the ability to send email alerts and use of expert advisors which will automatically trade the setups and also it has huge selection of indicators all for free.

finding the abc pattern using metatrader isn't a big problem, the problem was as u noticed is to find the WPT(min,typical,max) of wave C (the end of the correction) , also finding the WPT of the new which starts after the correction and resume the impulsive wave that occured before the correction started.

calculating these 2 WPTs isn't mentioned in mtpredictor but if you conentrate in the charts you can know how they are calculated.

I created a metatrader indicator which will find the abc/WPTs and I can say and always compare its results with mtpredictor and it is 95% accurate

also have a metatrader script which acts as a scanner to find setups, didn't start yet the expert advisor as I currently prefer to trade the setups manually so I can look at symmetry and other indicators but may create one and forward test it

Brilliant.

I found a script that writes Metatrader data down to your hard drive so you can easily load it in MTP EOD. No need to manually export from history center anymore... :D

here it is: (had to change extension to txt as it will not post on this forum as a .mql file)

It writes to location C:\Programs Files\metatrader\experts\files

Could you post the WPT's indicator, and the ABC setup script...? It would be really useful.

THX

[martinrcox]

ABC you're a genius - how do you get those WPT's to show up on Metatrader...?

Hi Soap,

I am a bit confused I thought that in order to be an ABC correction the C leg has to end below the A leg

Interested in your thoughts

[Eddo]

Hi Soap,

I am a bit confused I thought that in order to be an ABC correction the C leg has to end below the A leg

Interested in your thoughts

So did I !

[NHN123]

So did I !
So did I. I was just re-reading some of the manual so as not to make a fool of myself.

That said - I have sometimes been waiting for the C leg to arrive when it goes up before it completes, and would have made very nice profits (just like this one)

Might be worth looking into?

[Eddo]

So did I. I was just re-reading some of the manual so as not to make a fool of myself.

That said - I have sometimes been waiting for the C leg to arrive when it goes up before it completes, and would have made very nice profits (just like this one)

Might be worth looking into?

Ah but thats bending the rules .............. and we all no where that route will eventually take us :(

[NHN123]

Ah but thats bending the rules .............. and we all no where that route will eventually take us :(
your probably right! I'm glad I've got someone with discipline to curb my enthusiasm to "make it better".

Besides, it's a lot of work to go back through the charts and find out...

Thanks

[soap3000]

Hi Soap,

I am a bit confused I thought that in order to be an ABC correction the C leg has to end below the A leg

Interested in your thoughts

I also believe that it is not a correction unless the C leg is below.....

ABC Trader posted that chart perhaps his script needs to be tweaked a little bit as it does appear to be a false ABC setup - I was just replying as he was able to get the WPT's to show up on the metatrader charts also - that is what I am interested in.

HOWEVER - if MTP can look at Elliot waves in an 'isolation approach' then perhaps a C wave can still be above a wave A (when looking long) or perhaps the bottom of a wave 2 can be below the beginning of a wave 1...

As it turned out the trade setup that ABC Trader found went the right direction....?????

[Steve Griffiths]

Dear ABC Trader,

I can appreciate that your intentions are good, but trying to copy the MTPredictor routines is a breach of copyright.

Also, it has taken 20 years of practical trading experience to develop the pivot routine on which the ABC's in MTPredictor is based as well as the priority price clusters for the WPT levels, so I very much doubt that your calculations are correct. I already see that you have no understanding of the ABC correction by your ABC pattern being incorrect, as such I would not like MTPredictor users working off an incorrect copy of my code for their trading.

As such, please feel free to develop whatever you wish for your own private trading, but please do not post messages that could be viewed as promoting your routines that are a copy from MTPredictor. And an incorrect copy as well...........

This Forum is for MTPredictor users to talk about MTPredictor set-ups and trades using the MTPredictor software, as such I am sure you can understand how I do not wish to see any more posts on this topic........

Thanks

Steve Griffiths, developer MTPredictor........

[durgesh147]

The dollar slumped to a fresh one-year low versus the euro early Friday after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls number came in far lower than expected. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 138,000 in April. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for about 200,000 new jobs in the month. Payroll growth in February and March was also revised down by a total of 36,000 to 200,000 new jobs in each month. The euro rose to $1.2764, a new one-year peak. It last traded at $1.2732, up 0.2%. The dollar was down 0.04% at 113.45 yen

[durgesh147]

Reaping the reward for sitting tight ... :)

[richbois]

Reaping the reward for sitting tight ... :)


Nice job

I have a question for you

I am relatively new to MTP and would appreciate your input

what time frame chart have you found to be the best to use for FX trading using MTP.

[martinrcox]

Nice job

I have a question for you

I am relatively new to MTP and would appreciate your input

what time frame chart have you found to be the best to use for FX trading using MTP.

Hi Rich,

Sorry to butt in but I saw your message. If you look back to some of the earlier posts in this thread you will find the answer to your question. In particular look at posts 84, 94, 115, 212 and others

I hope that this helps

[durgesh147]

Too selfish to Breed ????

[durgesh147]

Nice job

I have a question for you

I am relatively new to MTP and would appreciate your input

what time frame chart have you found to be the best to use for FX trading using MTP.

Daily and 4H chart are the best ...

[abc_trader]

Dear ABC Trader,

I can appreciate that your intentions are good, but trying to copy the MTPredictor routines is a breach of copyright.

Also, it has taken 20 years of practical trading experience to develop the pivot routine on which the ABC's in MTPredictor is based as well as the priority price clusters for the WPT levels, so I very much doubt that your calculations are correct. I already see that you have no understanding of the ABC correction by your ABC pattern being incorrect, as such I would not like MTPredictor users working off an incorrect copy of my code for their trading.

As such, please feel free to develop whatever you wish for your own private trading, but please do not post messages that could be viewed as promoting your routines that are a copy from MTPredictor. And an incorrect copy as well...........

This Forum is for MTPredictor users to talk about MTPredictor set-ups and trades using the MTPredictor software, as such I am sure you can understand how I do not wish to see any more posts on this topic........

Thanks

Steve Griffiths, developer MTPredictor........

Dear Steve,
I didn't copy mtp routines because simply I don't have the source and I can't reverse engineer it, we all know that mtp is a great piece of software but I hate to use a tool without knowing how it works, knowing that the WPTs are clusters of projections/retracements/extensions isn't just enough for me, seeing them painted on the chart without knowing how they are calculated just doesn't make me feel good, all I did is spending some time examining the charts deeply to know how these WPT are calculated, there is nothing wrong in this and as you mentioned this just for my private use.

as for the abc in the chart I posted, I agree that C wasn't below A but it was very close, I allow for some tolerance especially in forex and high time frames such as H4


Thanks

[vyt]

Daily and 4H chart are the best ...
Durgesh , how many entries do You have in a month for 4h and D signals , feeling myself impatient some time .

[durgesh147]

Durgesh , how many entries do You have in a month for 4h and D signals , feeling myself impatient some time .

Well, i never counted but you can assume one signal a week ... and if all FIRE UP...you shall be counting some 500 to 1000 pips...:D and mostly they do...

[durgesh147]

one of my friends has asked me to put my analysis on gold here... its never easy analysing a raging bull..... i'll try...its easier to get in corrections than pulling out your hair analysing gold....:D

GOLD ---- Defying all laws of gravity !!!

[durgesh147]

Well , all can be seen is , GOLD is in a typical wave 3 which passed over the WPTs as they don't exist ....

Oscillator is making new highs...

I have drawn an extension of the previous high low swing... its there..but i doubt that it'll hold...

Its in a blowoff phase...courtesy US dollar...the world is losing faith in the greenback so going back to the real money i.e. gold :)

[durgesh147]

I can't go on labelling the chart here .... i am not a great elliottician ...:(

All that can be said is... we are in hell of a bull market ...sit patiently to buy on dips....

[durgesh147]

Well, on daily chart we had a TS3 buy which Steve had posted and its up , up and running.... looks like it'll go past the extended wave 3 target too..
GOLD hasn't respected the WPTS so far...

SO, this is wht i can honestly analyse and say.... BUY ON DIPS !!!:)

[durgesh147]

Looks like a good short trade.
Reliable ABCDE pattern.Good reversal bar off the WPT.
OScillator divergence.
Can't ask for more.... :)

Will have to look on smaller timeframes on short side...
The stop on daily is too big....

[durgesh147]

I closed USDJPY for 200 pips.Not bad.So far in this month, i have made 400 pips.:) Last month i netted just 100 pips.:(

So far so good.

here is a potential TS3 buy which can yield abt 800 pips.the last and final rally in this pair which will complete the diagonal triangle wave 5 and then the YEN strength will kick in.Just a probability.

[martinrcox]

I closed USDJPY for 200 pips.Not bad.So far in this month, i have made 400 pips.:) Last month i netted just 100 pips.:(

So far so good.

here is a potential TS3 buy which can yield abt 800 pips.the last and final rally in this pair which will complete the diagonal triangle wave 5 and then the YEN strength will kick in.Just a probability.

Hi Durgesh,

I am slightly confused I thought that the end of wave 4 should be above the end of wave 2. I would be interested in your comments

[Eddo]

Hi Durgesh,

I am slightly confused I thought that the end of wave 4 should be above the end of wave 2. I would be interested in your comments

Martin, I think he is projecting that the wave 4 end is above the wave 2 on this chart isn't he?

[martinrcox]

Martin, I think he is projecting that the wave 4 end is above the wave 2 on this chart isn't he?

Sorry I meant the wave 1 according to the manual the wave 4 should not retrace into the area of the wave 1. However I know that Durgesh is very knowledgable in the advanced application of Elliot wave theory and his amazing results speak for themsleves :)

[shaster]

I closed USDJPY for 200 pips.Not bad.So far in this month, i have made 400 pips.:) Last month i netted just 100 pips.:(

So far so good.

here is a potential TS3 buy which can yield abt 800 pips.the last and final rally in this pair which will complete the diagonal triangle wave 5 and then the YEN strength will kick in.Just a probability.

Great job for doppy. I did same short, but cashed out too quick at last Friday. :(

Do you see a big drop on Cable weekly? I saw a 12345 followed by ABC.

[durgesh147]

TS1 buy.This pair is at a very solid support level from monthly to daily charts.
When will it take off ? Bottoms take longer to form than tops.

[jswin]

Sorry I meant the wave 1 according to the manual the wave 4 should not retrace into the area of the wave 1. However I know that Durgesh is very knowledgable in the advanced application of Elliot wave theory and his amazing results speak for themsleves :)

Hi, I would not want to put words in Durgesh's mouth but I think he is referring to wave 5 of a diagonal triangle pattern (ending). Definition according to Elliot Wave International is:

'Diagonal Triangle (Ending) - A wedge shaped pattern containing overlap that occurs only in fifth or C waves. Subdivides 3-3-3-3-3'

The word 'overlap' is the key.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

I do like to see such a varied and free discussion about various aspects of Elliott wave, however, I am slightly concerned that we may be drifting into the trap of trying to "forecast" too much.

I just wish to pass on my 20 years experience here and yet again stress why I developed MTPredictor and why I prefer to stick to just the ABC correction.

I have just seen too many "EW forecasts" not turn out as anticipated over the years, and as such seen too many people loose too much money. As such, I would hate to see this happen here.

Again, I am not trying to tell you all what to do, but I thought I would just add what I have seen myself over the last 20 years.

So again (as outlined in the Trading Course), I feel that the best way to use EW is not to forecast, but to identify low risk trade set-ups where you can enter the market with a small controlled risk, and in my view, the simple ABC correction is the best (and most reliable) pattern to do this.

The current TS3 short on the JPY is a perfect example of this..........and what MTP is all about :)

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Steve,

I couldn't agree more - funnily enough I just sent a note to Scotty in Aus telling him how my simple mind could only cope with looking at the simple ABC's and that its stood me in excellent stead since being an MTP customer for many years now - I agree Keep it Simple S:p

[NHN123]

Hi Everybody,

I do like to see such a varied and free discussion about various aspects of Elliott wave, however, I am slightly concerned that we may be drifting into the trap of trying to "forecast" too much.

I just wish to pass on my 20 years experience here and yet again stress why I developed MTPredictor and why I prefer to stick to just the ABC correction.

I have just seen too many "EW forecasts" not turn out as anticipated over the years, and as such seen too many people loose too much money. As such, I would hate to see this happen here.

Again, I am not trying to tell you all what to do, but I thought I would just add what I have seen myself over the last 20 years.

So again (as outlined in the Trading Course), I feel that the best way to use EW is not to forecast, but to identify low risk trade set-ups where you can enter the market with a small controlled risk, and in my view, the simple ABC correction is the best (and most reliable) pattern to do this.

The current TS3 short on the JPY is a perfect example of this..........and what MTP is all about :)

Steve

Steve,

thanks for that...

As you posted the JPY 240 min trade (which I think we were all in), I wanted to ask you something about stops.

I think Durgesh was the only one to not move the stop to b/e after 100% risk. Obviously, he was right not to for this one.

Where do you stand on this? Do you have a blanket rule, or because of your experience, do you ever tweak it, and judge it on a trade by trade basis (maybe if the stop is small (pip-wise), you don't move it so quickly, for example?)

Your advice would be much appreciated.

Thanks
Nick

[bigboy666]

Hi Steve,

I couldn't agree more - funnily enough I just sent a note to Scotty in Aus telling him how my simple mind could only cope with looking at the simple ABC's and that its stood me in excellent stead since being an MTP customer for many years now - I agree Keep it Simple S:p


TOO true, stick to the basics and you will make money, thats what we are here for and thats why I have invested in the software.

It is a problem with Elliottwave that you can get side tracked into trying to predict complex corrections.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Nick,

The Trading Course does talk about the 100% level and how this is one of the guidelines that should be relaxed for short-term trading. So I woudl not use this for 240min Forex charts..........

I hope this helps ?

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

I would like to thank you all for making this such a great Forum. It is great to see that so many of you are actively participating and as such is a great benifit to all. I especially like to see it when we all can all participate in nice profitable trades like the 240min JPY :)

So thanks again to all of you...............

Steve

[NHN123]

Hi Nick,

The Trading Course does talk about the 100% level and how this is one of the guidelines that should be relaxed for short-term trading. So I woudl not use this for 240min Forex charts..........

I hope this helps ?

Steve
Curses! I wish I had refreshed myself on the manual before I moved my bleedin' stop!

So, out of interest, where would you say is a good place (generally) to move your stop to break-even?

Thanks
Nick

[vyt]

I have a question , we are forming TS1 on 4h USDCAD , but as Durgesh noticed in his post 658 on h1 asa major this setup was ready couple hours ago , can we entry on the confirmation bar (blue or red) using major on low timeframe or have to wait this setup to be an intemediate on the higher timeframe .

[durgesh147]

closed out for +60 pips. Its showing a matching high at wave 1orA WPT... chances of an ABC correction is high... a profit is a profit... bank it ...;)

[durgesh147]

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

- Jim Rohn -



Paying Your Dues

The great trader Jesse Livermore blew out his account more than once in his illustrious career. It's scary to think about, but if you want to become one of the few who reach the top in this business, it's necessary to face the possibility that you may blow out your account. Many seasoned traders have had to start over more than once. You may not be immune to this ailment. Just like all top-notch traders, you may need to pay your dues and learn what it's like to lose and come back.



In an interview with Innerworth, Tom, a long time market observer noted, "I have yet to meet a successful trader who hasn't paid his dues." Tom observed that every successful trader has blown out his account and learned how to recover from it. "Take the best traders in the world...they've blown out. If trading was easy, everyone would be trading and everyone would be making money. You have to pay your dues. Some people are lucky and only pay those dues for a very short period of time, and others are going to pay their dues for a very long time."

Another seasoned trader, Dan, described how he lost big before making a comeback: "One time I lost virtually everything in one or two days, and a good friend of mine came over to make sure that I wasn't going to do something stupid. ... I told him, 'It's only cash. It's not my life that I lost. I can get it back. It's not the end of the world. I'm not losing my house, my car, my credit cards, or my friends. I made a mistake. I'm angry that I made a mistake, but the cash has nothing to do with it."

The trading lore is replete with similar stories. One young, promising trader, for example, lost so much money that his brokerage decided to fund him to make back what he had lost. Even the best traders blow out. Why? For some it is merely mathematics. They are under-capitalized and end up spending what little earnings they make on a few wrong trades and on commissions. They never had a chance. Other traders are overly impulsive. In a sense, the old adage, "you have to risk money to make money," is true. To make big profits and turn a small account into a large one, it is necessary to take big risks when a once-in-a-lifetime trade comes along. That said, you may also be taking a big risk that has dire financial consequences. There's no one right way to trade. If you want to make it big in the trading business, you may need to take risks. But you should be ready to deal with the consequences. Other traders may want to play it safe by trading small and building up their trading skills and trading capital before scaling up to make those bigger, riskier trades. Whatever you decide, it's necessary to keep up your spirits on the one hand but be ready to pay your dues on the other. You can make it if you stick with it, but everyone has to put in the required time and effort, and learn to pick yourself up after a setback.

[durgesh147]

AUDUSD looks ripe for correction...

Its at the Wave 1orA WPT... of a major swing... a high might unfold here...

[durgesh147]

On hourly it has broken out of a rising wedge pattern ...bulls giving into bears....

Best thing will be to look for sell setups on hourly....

[NHN123]

One for the watchlist:

It's manual, the pivots don't match on the MTP maths. But I think it might be a poss set up - no it's not ready yet (no rev bar).

Thoughts and constructive criticism very welcome - thanks
Nick

[soap3000]

One for the watchlist:

It's manual, the pivots don't match on the MTP maths. But I think it might be a poss set up - no it's not ready yet (no rev bar).

Thoughts and constructive criticism very welcome - thanks
Nick

seeing something similar...

[Rimu]

Looking for a possible wave 4 correction to unfold after hitting the 161.8% Fib extension of wave 1.

[durgesh147]

Looks like Cable is ripe for a correction to 1.8138

[yom_or]

Have that trade running as we speak Durgeshand short from 8610 and 8539. Went long on that Cad trade you posted yesterday as well, not as nice a entry as you, played the entry setup. Daiies look like they may hae some room to move for a larger correction. Amazing charting you do with the trades Durgesh just like to say.

Durgesh, what do you see going on with Chunnel if you dont mind me askin Eur/Gbp. i think we are at the bottom of a correvtion ?

[Gartley222]

Hi friends...

[Eddo]

Hi friends...

Hi Gartley - just thought you might be a little too far away from the Wpt for this one ? :confused:

Sorry just checked the manual myself and see your at Min Wpt - my apology and good luck with it

[NHN123]

Hi Gartley - just thought you might be a little too far away from the Wpt for this one ? :confused:

Sorry just checked the manual myself and see your at Min Wpt - my apology and good luck with it

You've raised a good point here;

Steve, why does it only show the Typ wave C sometimes? on the EOD?

[Eddo]

You've raised a good point here;

Steve, why does it only show the Typ wave C sometimes? on the EOD?

I got this one by doing a manual, but interestingly my data (eSignal GMT) hasn't given me the Red bar that Gartley got - just one of those things I guess !

[durgesh147]

Probable TS1. Be watchful in AUDJPY and EURJPY for buy setups...

[Eddo]

Probable TS1. Be watchful in AUDJPY and EURJPY for buy setups...

Hi Durgesh,

Thanks for that but did you know we are getting double postings (yours clearly have the most weight) but there is a dedicated Forex Section in the Forum and in there we have a Forex Watchlist thred which is v active - please would you like to join that one for your Forex offerings so we have everything in the same place :)

Hope you don't mind me asking and thanks for your posts - Chris

[NHN123]

Hi Durgesh,

Thanks for that but did you know we are getting double postings (yours clearly have the most weight) but there is a dedicated Forex Section in the Forum and in there we have a Forex Watchlist thred which is v active - please would you like to join that one for your Forex offerings so we have everything in the same place :)

Hope you don't mind me asking and thanks for your posts - Chris
You know the easiest way (what I do anyway...) to keep up to date with all posts, no matter where they are posted is to go to the "quick links" and go to "today's posts". I never miss an episode this way... You prob know that already, but just in case you didn't...

[Eddo]

You know the easiest way (what I do anyway...) to keep up to date with all posts, no matter where they are posted is to go to the "quick links" and go to "today's posts". I never miss an episode this way... You prob know that already, but just in case you didn't...

Hi - yes thats what I do, but it seems to me that Durgesh doesn't know that there is a Forex Section and I just thought that with most of his posts relating to the Forex market, he migh like to join our little group :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Can we all move over to the Forex thread in the Forex section - as that is far more relevant than this thread here in this section.

Thanks

BTW, great to see such an active Board now, looks like you are all having fun and uncovering some great trades along the way - well done............ keep up all the good work :)

Steve

[durgesh147]

Advanced wave C buy or Major TS1 unfolding in EURAUD 1H....

[Eddo]

Advanced wave C buy or Major TS1 unfolding in EURAUD 1H....

That would be nice ............ I am still long on this one from the 4 hrs and currently going nowhere ........... so come on TS! buy !!!:)

[durgesh147]

Hi Chris !!!

First you said it , now i see Steve also wants it.Should i close this thread and move over to Forex watchlist thread in Foreign Exchange...

This way...we all will be posting in one thread... no doublings... no missings...

Only prob is ... i dunno how to close this one...

[Eddo]

Hi Chris !!!

First you said it , now i see Steve also wants it.Should i close this thread and move over to Forex watchlist thread in Foreign Exchange...

This way...we all will be posting in one thread... no doublings... no missings...

Only prob is ... i dunno how to close this one...

Hi,

Yes I think you should move over - just leave this one to wither on the vine and re-grow in the Forex Section - cya there :)

[durgesh147]

Pushing for new highs...

[durgesh147]

On the daily charts, its facing some resistance and the momentum looks to be losing strength.If corrects , will be a good buy for long term traders...

[durgesh147]

TS3 triggered here...

[durgesh147]

TS1 triggered....

[durgesh147]

Where are the buyers ...:D
This pair has got everybody guessing...

[durgesh147]

Well, to me technically it looks the selling is done... but who knows for sure...:D

[durgesh147]

Probable Advanced Wave C setup in progress...
This pair is overbought on weekly charts as well...

Can prove to be a good play ..

[abc_trader]

what happened in the eurjpy is a market turn at exactly the typical wave price target of an ABC on the H4 timeframe, this abc is manuall and wasn't detected by mtp

http://www.slibe.com/images/f0871cd4-MyScreenHunter_j.jpg (http://www.slibe.com)

[durgesh147]

[QUOTE=abc_trader]what happened in the eurjpy is a market turn at exactly the typical wave price target of an ABC on the H4 timeframe, this abc is manuall and wasn't detected by mtp



I know... i have a long in EURJPY at about current levels..now i am kicking myself for not booking the profits even when i saw this selling coming right at WPT...:(

what i am looking at is the daily setup and if you look at 1h chart, a buy setup is developing.... so if confirmed, looking to add more to my open position...

[abc_trader]

[QUOTE=abc_trader]what happened in the eurjpy is a market turn at exactly the typical wave price target of an ABC on the H4 timeframe, this abc is manuall and wasn't detected by mtp



I know... i have a long in EURJPY at about current levels..now i am kicking myself for not booking the profits even when i saw this selling coming right at WPT...:(

what i am looking at is the daily setup and if you look at 1h chart, a buy setup is developing.... so if confirmed, looking to add more to my open position...


there is also a possible hourly buy setup on NZDUSD, currently trading @0.6237, typical WPT of current wave c is 0.6227, manually

http://www.slibe.com/images/746bfc19-MyScreenHunter_j.jpg (http://www.slibe.com)

[durgesh147]

AUDNZD looks ready to shed some 600 pips...

[durgesh147]

Looks like this pair has completed the minor wave 3 of Intermediate C/3.
Ready to move to 112.97 to complete wave 4.

Moreover a TS3 buy is developing on the hourly.

[durgesh147]

Manual TS1 on GOLD hourly....

[NHN123]

Durgesh, good spot...

will Golf give us a crack at buying once more? or is it the end of the bull run for now? Have I missed something fundamental to this?

Look at the 4H chart. Could be a real nice ABC forming....

[durgesh147]

The selling in GOLD has something to do with buying in USD . After inflation reports are out , there is some good buying in dollar.This selling might continue for a while.And as for trading gold is concerned, its hell of volatile.

I forgot to add...its not the end of the GOLD bull market.I have some reports about GOLD going to 1200 dollars.Its just a correction.Small or big, i dunno.

[NHN123]

The selling in GOLD has something to do with buying in USD . After inflation reports are out , there is some good buying in dollar.This selling might continue for a while.And as for trading gold is concerned, its hell of volatile.

I forgot to add...its not the end of the GOLD bull market.I have some reports about GOLD going to 1200 dollars.Its just a correction.Small or big, i dunno.

...and how about that US$ buying, we get a weekly sell set up in EURUSD at current levels... Best ignored??? Who knows.

We'll see where we close on friday...

[durgesh147]

...and how about that US$ buying, we get a weekly sell set up in EURUSD at current levels... Best ignored??? Who knows.

We'll see where we close on friday...

Hi Nick,

A couple of days back, i had posted this chart on some other forum suspecting that EURO might be topping out today.And it did.
from monthly charts, we are in wave 5... on daily the market is moving in 3s ..so i suspect EURO is making a Diagonal Triangle Wave 5 where all waves are in swings of 3.

This is the assumption as of now... we'll see later how the market unfolds.
From time perspective also, EURO is topping out....i will not discuss the details here.If EURO closes below 1.2778 on the daily charts, the top is finalised.

I am putting up the chart that i posted on other forum.

[durgesh147]

TS3 triggered ....

[durgesh147]

here is something interesting...

on the 4h chart, TS3 is triggered... but on hourly the minor wave 5 is pending...

So, i am waiting for this minor wave 5 to complete...lets see...

C waves are impulsive waves which subdivide into 5...

[durgesh147]

TS3 buy triggered on weekly chart... te idea is to look for long setups on 4h charts...

[durgesh147]

TS1 buy on Swissy.... not yet triggered.... but looks to be in the process...

Better to be prepared to get on board before the big trending moves appear...

[durgesh147]

I have been eyeing this pair for long time.Finally, i am in it for 92 plus.
After looking at the 4h chart, i found the C wave has completed its 5 subwaves.So, no point missing a big wave 3.

[ADM]

what do u think?

[martinrcox]

I have been eyeing this pair for long time.Finally, i am in it for 92 plus.
After looking at the 4h chart, i found the C wave has completed its 5 subwaves.So, no point missing a big wave 3.

Hi Durgesh,

I was wondering whether you were still long on this pair. I know that there has been a strong fall over the last couple of days but it is still holding above the last major low and it appears that there may be support coming in before it resumes the upward trend

I would be interested in your thoughts

[durgesh147]

Advanced Wave C buy triggered in EURCAD ...

[davidl]

Advanced Wave C buy triggered in EURCAD ...

Durgesh that is good stuff...take a look at my post. let me know your thoughts on my post. i think your in a winner here.

http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?t=741

[durgesh147]

It has been going steadily....

[durgesh147]

Looks like , its moving into wave 3 on the daily charts....

[durgesh147]

Potential TS1 .... :rolleyes:

[durgesh147]

Looks like making a 3 swing correction...

[durgesh147]

Worth paying attention to....

[durgesh147]

looks like this pair has completed a 5 wave sequence and heading for 1.2558

[durgesh147]

Tough time ahead for Aussie

[durgesh147]

A good short setup in the making...

[durgesh147]

ALL is not well with Sterling...A tough 2007 ahead for sterling

[durgesh147]

Ready for a pullback....

[dctommy]

Durgesh:

Where have you been? I have missed your posts.

I also heard a rumor that you are a highly successful fund manager
now, making tons of money!?

Is this true? Welcome back!


dctommy :D

[nurhazeerah]

good effort durgesh ;)

[durgesh147]

Looks pretty good...

[mitch]

Looks pretty good...

Hi durgesh. Great to hear from you. Hope you are well. I for one (but I'm sure many other mtp'ers would agree) have missed your valuable contributions and insights on the 'boards'

cheers:)

[durgesh147]

Looks good...

[durgesh147]

probable setups in the pipeline....

[mitch]

Looks good...

Hi durgesh. any thoughts/analysis on why this set up failed?

[mitch]

Looks pretty good...

this one also got stopped out. any thoughts/views? As someone who consistently had success using MTP on forex I appreciate your input coz I am struggling to string/find successful trades (TS or Dp) these days. Are u still trading forex using mtp?? Just that I read somewhere that you were fulltime funds manager.

cheers

[durgesh147]

Hi Mitch,

Even the best setups fail... nothing new..i have seen five wave corrections...moves that can't be explained..all we can do as traders is trade high probability setups with controlled risk... setups are 20%,risk management is 40% and trade management is also 40%... thats roughly how i see trading.. as far as EURJPY is concerned... earlier it made an ABC zigzag correction..now ,it has made an expanding triangle...we trade patterns and patterns do change with news flows and sentiments...:)

[durgesh147]

Manual analysis on EURGBP....

[Steve Griffiths]

Manual analysis on EURGBP....

Hi Durgesh,

Please can you only post charts using MTPredictor,

Thanks

Steve

[durgesh147]

Hi Steve,

Sorry for that... This is the chart with MTP...

Thanks,

[matobe]

i think nzd ts1 setup will be unfold today, hope this setup will unfold as what mtp projection either as wave c or wave 3. Just wait n see for today.........

[durgesh147]

Tough days ahead for the pound....

[durgesh147]

Looks like a good setup in the making

[mitch]

Looks like a good setup in the making

Hi Durgesh. Good to see you back on the 'boards'. Just a query re the Wave 5on your man wave count on the Loonie? On first glance, doesn't seem to be typical length (in bars or time) for a Wave 5? Be interested in your thoughts/rationale.

Cheers,
Mitch

[marketwaves]

Looks like a good setup in the making

Why does your Usd/ CAD Chart just above say the date Jul 7,2007 ?
it is now Dec-07 .....:p
-------------------------------------------------------

[Angel]

Hello all,

This the last news concerning the Forex market. This extract comes from Joe Ross :

A Whopping 66% of Forex Brokers Will Close Their Doors December 21, 2007.

Starting this month, U.S. forex dealers will have to meet certain requirements to stay in busi*ness. The NFA (National Futures Association) is raising the capital requirements for these U.S.*based firms. According to the new rules, all forex dealers must have USS5 million in "net excess capital" to keep their firms open.

Now, for large forex firms, this won't be an issue. However, only about 1 /3 of the 30 forex dealers in the U.S. are expected to make the cut. In other words, roughly 66% of forex brokers will be forced to close their doors when these rules go into effect later this month.

With these new regulations, many brokers will he scrambling to get more capital on their books so they can remain open. If they can't meet the newest capital reserves required by their regulators, then they'll have to close their doors. Many are so small that this will be the case. These new regulatory requirements go into effect Dec. 21st!

So What Can You Do if You Already Have an Account?

1. Check out your broker on this public site to see how much they have in "net excess." Don't rely on them to tell you. See for yourself by visiting http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/fi...fcms/index.htm. While the minimum requirement is going up to US$5 million, you really want a firm with US$20-30 million set aside. The more padding they have, the more your forex accounts are protected.

2. See if your forex broker is regulated else*where. Check if your broker is regulated in Europe, Canada, Hong Kong, etc. If so, that's even better because more regulators are watching over their shoulders. Also, they'll have to meet capital requirements in those countries, too. So if they're regulated in several places that's good news for you. Canada, the U.K., Hong Kong and the U.S. offer some of the best regulation out there. Believe it or not, the regulation in Switzerland really isn't that great. If a firm is regulated outside of these areas, it's a red flag that your broker doesn't measure up. Why are they dodging the most credible sources of regulation? For instance, those that run to Belize are dodging the strict regulators for loose regulation.

3. Look at a firm's size and regulation first. Pick a well-capitalized firm (the bigger the better). Their size and regulation are the most important, and then you can look for a broker's pip spreads and slippage, etc., after that.

4. If you choose a "no dealing desk" type of broker (ECN) then hopefully you're not going to have them trading against you. The biggest Firms will even have multi*ple inter-banks competing in their quotes to win your business. A dealing desk is taking the other side of your trade and you'll find that slippage is much worse especially around news events.

5. Ask how many employees they have. This will give you an idea of how many accounts they may have to service and how much customer service means to them. Believe it or not, some firms only have 20-30 employees. They also can't even be reached 24 hours a day (in a 24-hour tradable mar*ket). You want a firm with 100-500 employees. Then you know they're accessible when you need them. It is also "proof" of their size and capitalization. After all, a firm isn't going to have US$5 million to their name and 500 employees too.

6. If they will tell you, ask them approx*****ly how many accounts they service. Some only have 2,000-10,000 accounts while others have 90,000+ accounts.

What To Do if Your Broker Doesn't Measure Up

If you find that your broker doesn't make the cut after you ask them these questions, you should promptly move your money over to one of the bigger firms. Be sure to "interview" them with these same questions before going with them also. Be comfort*able with your choice.

So what happens if you just stick it out with a small firm that has to fold and close up shop? You may be delayed in getting your money back if they're
forced to close. Worse case scenario: You won't get your money back. Some firms could have your assets tied up in bankruptcy court for quite some time.
Either way, it spells disaster, so choose a well*capitalized, well-regulated firm so you can avoid any of these headaches this holiday season.

Thanks

Angel

[durgesh147]

Looks good...

[durgesh147]

Looks like an ideal setup

[durgesh147]

Looks good...

[durgesh147]

Sell setup on EURGBP...

[martinrcox]

Looks good...

Dear Durgesh,

Great call on USD / CAD it has had a good move down today. I am short EUR / CAD which also did well. See below. I entered the trade after the DP set up on the 60min chart had been confirmed some way down from the entry point to avoid a false move which you can get on this timeframe. I also liked the divergence on the weekly chart

[Eileen]

Noticed the short EOD set up on the EUR/JYP on 2/27 with the trend and am paper trading following it. I have not planned to do EOD Forex but am finding that EOD commodities trades don't come up all that often, so am thinking of adding a few forex. Does anyone have any recommendations for EOD forex brokers? Thanks Eileen

[Eileen]

sorry here is the correct chart. Eileen