Corn

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Nice to see that Corn is continuing to rally strongly off the recent TS3 buy set-up, please see chart below.

As you can see, we had a nice abc decline that reversed right at the typical Wave C WPT with a blue (buy) reversal bar - a classic MTPredictor TS1 trade set-up....

Thanks

Steve

[mcdirt]

If you do a scan (all restrictions OFF) on the MTP Futures list (ie discrete contracts), then nothing shows up today for the various Corn contracts we have listed there. If you do the same scan on the 067 list, then C-067 shows up today as a TS3 sell.

I can see no discernable difference between the C-0603 and the C-067 charts, they look the same to me and March is the front month on the Continuous contract.

If you add an Advanced ABC (intermediate) to the C-0603 chart, then it displays the same sell setup that is found in the scan on C-067. I don't know why the setup is not found on C-0603 in the scan but more importantly - maybe we should have a reverse order in on C-0603 rather than just a stop?

rgds McDirt

[muchell]

McDirt,

I noticed the same thing. However, I found something that I cannot explain. If you scroll manually through the discrete contracts, the Corn 0609 and 0612 contracts indicate a sell setup. I am long March Corn (with a stop below yesterdays low) but am going to go short Dec Corn of the two showing as it has more (and considerable) Vol and OI.

Cheers KL

[muchell]

McDirt,

Interested if you could repeat what I found in the last post because.....decided to try MTP4 to see if it picked up the trades in the discrete contract scan, it didn't. In the process I closed MTP5 then reloaded and found that the corn trades didn't come up in the scroll through. Rebooted PC but still no joy. Methinks there may be a some instability in MTP5.
KL

[mcdirt]

Hi Muchell,

Thanks for the reply. I'm running MTPv5 build 50 and when I use the Next/Previous arrows to scroll through the Contracts, C-0612 does not show an automatic setup (it does find a manual Advanced ABC). C-0609 is not in Matt's list.

The C-0603 and C-067 charts look the same but there ARE small differences, it must be enough to mean that the scanner finds a trade on C-067 but not C-0603. It's C-0603 that I'm in and MTP doesn't show an Automatic sell setup so I'll go with that I suppose.

Perhaps Matt will see this and set us straight.

rgds McDirt

[Matt Bowen]

We had a busy day in Grains... We are were stopped out of Corn for a 9 X risk to reward trade. Also, Wheat and Oats were stopped out on the MTP risk report.

[Blaze]

I'm a little confused. Shouldn't the stop been raised once price reached the first target area around 236 or so and the trade stopped out there?

[ericd2281]

Matt,

I was stopped out of the corn trade for a significant profit.

I had a question regarding the wheat trade's management... As Monday (Feb 6th) was an inside day, I kept my stop at one tick below the previous close (Feb 3rd).

Currently, my stop is still one tick below the close of Feb 3rd.

Is this correct trade management?

Regards,
Eric

[mrkam]

It looks to me as if you did something other than the "standard" mgmt here... C-0605 chart above.

Which would be (I think...):
reached the next profit target (green) on 1/27. (this is the non-candle candle.) At this point, wouldn't you raise the stop to the low of the day, about 226.5. Then, the next day is the big black candle, which did not stop out. But, then the next day (or day after) DID stop out, didn't it?? So using "by the book" trade mgmt, we would not have made it to the max (blue) WPT. Still a good trade though!!

thanks!

[Matt Bowen]

I'm a little confused. Shouldn't the stop been raised once price reached the first target area around 236 or so and the trade stopped out there?


Hi Blaze,

If you have been reading the reports, you will note that the stops have moved based on the WPT's.

**Please note**
I have modified the standard exit rules in "Part-2" of the manual.

Trade Exit rules:

1.) A close in the 2-3 profit target allows the stop to be moved to breakeven.

2.) A close in the first WPT target allows the stop to be trailed from the low.

3.) The Trailing of the stop is repeated as the low on each bar moves up. Once the low is violated the trade is closed out for the profit.

Here is the report for Tuesday: http://www.mtptrader.com/MTP2-7.pdf

Hope that helps,

-Matt

[stevej]

Matt,

In the commodity scan in the tuesday report 3 bean oil contracts have valid set ups.

How do you select which to go for - in this case March, May or December?

SJ

[Angel]

Hi Stevej,

Lookt at the risk/reward of each contracts. For example on March contract, the risk/reward is 1.5:1 so it's not an elligible set-up because R/R should be > 2:1

Don't be afraid to check the risk/reward ratio for each contract.

As I do every day, take a look at the trading guideline one more time, one more time....................

Hope this helps

Rgrds

Angel

[stevej]

Hi Angel,

Thanks.

However, on my scan (on data for 6th February) I have the following R/R:
March: 2.1:1
May: 2.2:1
December: 2.1:1

On data for 7th February:
March: 2.2:1
May: 2.4:1
December: 2.1:1

Steve

[Angel]

Hi Stevej

Unfortunatly different data providers give different data and so different R/R.

Hard to deal with......

Have a good trading day,

Rgrds

Angel

[stevej]

Hi Blaze,

If you have been reading the reports, you will note that the stops have moved based on the WPT's.

**Please note**
I have modified the standard exit rules in "Part-2" of the manual.

Trade Exit rules:

1.) A close in the 2-3 profit target allows the stop to be moved to breakeven.

2.) A close in the first WPT target allows the stop to be trailed from the low.

3.) The Trailing of the stop is repeated as the low on each bar moves up. Once the low is violated the trade is closed out for the profit.

Here is the report for Tuesday: http://www.mtptrader.com/MTP2-7.pdf

Hope that helps,

-Matt



Matt,
Do I misunderstand?

Please see the attached chart for HO-0606.
On the above rules the price closes in the first target on 17 January. Trade is stopped out on the nest day not on 24 January?

Steve

[Angel]

Hi Steve,

On my current HO-0606 chart, the price closed in the first profit target on 17 january but the trade is only stopped out on 23 january following the Matt's exit rules.

Last thing , my End Of Day data come from reuters.

Rgrds

Angel

[Angel]

Steve,

Referring to the chart you posted, please check the bar BEFORE the trade is triggered. I mean that the 27 december bar was also blue so the current entry trigger is 16700 and your stop trigger is 16380. That's why your WPTs zone were wrong.

Check it now ;)

Hope this helps ?

Rgrds

Angel

[stevej]

Hi Steve,

On my current HO-0606 chart, the price closed in the first profit target on 17 january but the trade is only stopped out on 23 january following the Matt's exit rules.

Last thing , my End Of Day data come from reuters.

Rgrds

Angel
Mine comes from Genesis, same as Matt's.

Steve

[stevej]

Steve,

Referring to the chart you posted, please check the bar BEFORE the trade is triggered. I mean that the 27 december bar was also blue so the current entry trigger is 16700 and your stop trigger is 16380. That's why your WPTs zone were wrong.

Check it now ;)

Hope this helps ?

Rgrds

Angel
Thanks Angel - you have solved that one for me.:o

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Stevej,

You have the exit correct. Under the rules I listed above that trade would have been exited on January 18. However, as indicated in the reports I never moved the trailing stop until January 20...Here's why: