3min ES

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

As promised, here is a set-up unfolding now, with my thoughs

A good looking ABC pattern, good red $TRIN, but initial R/R too low to be ideal...............

Steve

[NHN123]

Steve, would you say this is nice looking? I thought so, but, again, RR too low... so not taken.

Just want to see if we are thinking along the same lines

[Steve Griffiths]

Exactly, again a good looking ABC, but R/R too low.

The only one that was Ok was the 5min NQ.............. see below...

let's see how this one unfolds ??

Steve

[NHN123]

Exactly, again a good looking ABC, but R/R too low.

The only one that was Ok was the 5min NQ.............. see below...

let's see how this one unfolds ??

Steve

I passed that one, cos I am being extra fussy and the B swing was too short, and didn't retrace enough of wave A for my liking - is that too fussy?


Thanks

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Well here we are, at the first profit target :)

I hope that has answered the few critics who were complaining that I just post "hindsight" examples. Here I not only looked at several less than ideal set-ups, then picked the one I like the best and posted all these charts "at the time".

Now I am follwing up the result, which is positive, as the NQ has declined into the first profit target.

But the point here is that this was all done "at the time" (well, as fast as I can type :) ), but the inportant point is that there was no "hindsight", I did not know what the outcome of this trade would be at the time of the first post.

I hope this is OK for you ? and has shown MTP in action in "real-time".....

Thanks

Steve

[gremtp]

Hey well done Steve
What a way to answer!

For those who are following "everything that moves" like me, the TRIN has kept out of the several buy set ups. Then MTP RT has given this ES and the YM. ES was caught by 133 tick cahrt too by the way.
There was an "ify" 15 min ER2 at the very beginning of the day. I did not take it, but it would have been good too.

Hey, toady was easy!...... Just joking!

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Here you go $400 initial risk into approx $1,100 profit...... nice :) and all without the benifit of hindsight :) :)

I hope you all have a great weekend...............

Steve

[NHN123]

Hi Everybody,

Here you go $400 initial risk into approx $1,100 profit...... nice :) and all without the benifit of hindsight :) :)

I hope you all have a great weekend...............

Steve
well that is a good enough answer to my question of fussiness.

I'll get there in the end...

have a good weekend all!

[whatswiththispos]

well since the posts here seem to be directed at me let me say this and it will be my last comment on the matter. On a 100tick chart e-mini Russell there were 51 ts setups today 20 sells and 31 buys, most were valid setups ie: at WPT etc but MOST obviously would have been a loss and MOST dropped off the chart after the bar exceeded the entry. Now while your trade looks great in hindsight, it is more distracting than it appears especially with buy signals popping up every couple of minutes!! now since the Trin was red most of the day you would have been looking for shorts, however MOST shorts on the ES and ER would not have been profitable.

[whatswiththispos]

oops I guess I lied, this is my last post regarding this issue. I did not mean to imply it was a "hindsight" trade as it really did unfold that way in real time. My point is that there are MANY trade setups during the RT trading day, especially when you are watching multiple symbols and time frames. That NQ trade was great if it was the ONLY time frame you had up with no buy signals popping up the second you went short. IF there was a better way to filter out the bad trades(software issue) it would make MTP a very valuable trading tool, as it is now it is VERY much discretionary.

[Steve Griffiths]

Thanks for your questions.

First a 100tick chart is far too short, as I mentioned in yesterdays report, this is like trading a 1min chart. There is far too much "noise" on these shorter time frames, so I would suggest you focus on longer time frames, even when using tick charts. This will not only help giver better quality signals but will reduce the activity level as well.

The shortest time frames I look at are 3min and 5min, so I would suggest you use tick charts that follow these time frames a little closer. I have found that you tend to get the best looking ABC on these time frames, any smaller and there is too much noise which can result in false signals, that is why I suggest sticking to slightly longer time frames.

This is why I put so much effort into these posts and my daily trainning, to help you all get the most from the software, and in particular how to use it the way it was designed........ As you can see from the NQ above, when you look for the patterns that I do, (clear clean and abvious ABC) then you can get some great and profitable trades.

I hope this helps ?

Steve

[gremtp]

(Warning: be ready for another long message from me!)

Hey wahtswiththispos

I have partly seconded some of the concerns, elaborating on another thread, so don’t be defensive. Let’s try to be a bit constructive here.
I guess you are coming from the same path I have come. Looking at MTP like you do (I guess) and I was doing is frustrating and sometimes infuriating.
The point is that this little piece of software is not a system. I am having a hard time at getting this concept. The terms “trading software”, “alerts”, “signals” are quite misleading in this context. I have used and “created” systems that MUST enter or exit the market when an alert is flashed, or when a point is reached. I have coded stuff in TS to automate these systems. I need rules and certainty.
If one comes from this background, MTP is quite frustrating.
But even with coded systems, one has to put filters on. An easy example is when you have a signal ½ hour before closing time: there is no point taking it and you “discretionally” turn it down. Another typical example is just before FOMC announcements.
The point with MTP is that the discretion required is based on “how good looking” the set-up appears to be! It is the most subjective filter and has very little scientific or statistical bearing. Above all, there is no way of having a consistent statistical history.
So one has to develop the art of “MTP set-up aesthetics”. Being an art, I am not sure it can be taught. Surely Steve is making his best effort. Many people here talk about “feeling” if a set-up is good or not. In my experience, I started making money only when I stopped having feelings about a trade and went down to hard statistics and discipline. So I have to say that MTP put me off initially. It was due to some curiosity and Steve’s enthusiasm and honesty that I have decided to give it a go. But if I want to use this Software I know that I have to change my attitude completely.

There are things I still do not accept. Concentrating on one or two markets and one or two time frames does not appeal to me. I am cross for having a loss as much as for missing a great trade. So I try to follow everything on as many combinations as possible. 100 tick is too short? Why 100? Numbers out there are 133, 144, 233, 266, etc. etc. I have asked about the reasons for using a tick chart rather than another and many answers were: “it seems to work” better this or that way. Damn I hate this! I am trying to find the right balance and I see that I have to do it on my own. You won’t have much help here if you look for statistical soundness: these are “feelings” folks ;)

Also, I have made my point to Steve regarding the fact that some of MTP marketing material may be quite easily misinterpreted in the sense you and I and others did. The huge number of signals, too many combinations, the "cherry picking argument", etc. I agree with you.
I think we have to applaud that fact that Steve went out of his way to answer these concerns as soon as possible. And he put quite a lot on the table yesterday, as that trade could have gone the other way! Surely more can be done, some ideas have been put forward and I am sure Steve is taking these issues on board.

Am I happy with this software? I am not sure yet. I agree with you, I think MTP RT still needs some work on the side of developers, and I understand Steve is working on it. Also, on the tick chart especially, it looks like there are some annoying glitches that someone has already pointed out. I think that Steve deserves his credibility and that we should encourage and support in a constructive way his effort to enhance the software. And after all, we forked out over 2,500$ for this, already, so better to stick with it a bit more.

As far as the ER2 is concerned. Let me now give you my experience on ER2 yesterday. On 133 and 266 tick chart combined there were about 80 alerts on ER (more if you had 3, 5 minute charts as well). But these alerts were related to a small number of set-ups. In my case the first 3 were Long signals and I passed them. Pity, because the first one at 16.06 London time would have made a R/R of 3. It even “looked good” to me, but the Trin was red and rules are rules. The other two would have been losses. Then there was a sell set-up at 17.45 London time, and it would have been a loss. I could not take it as the market was too fast and I missed it. Luck. Then, at about 18.00 London time there was a buy. Passed again. Damn, it would have made 2.5R. At about 19.25 there was a buy signal, but it never triggered. And that was it.
Less signals (and all Long, so none taken) on 266 tick charts.
Frustrating, but zero losses.
And I am following all 4 eminis. Bells and whistles all day and double checks with even more charts! Constant attention, idle time, boring, frantic juggling with 3 PC, you need 3-4 accounts and need to be pretty quick with your brokers’ platforms. This seems to be the game for now. In the long run I think I will train someone to key in the orders… will see.

Lastly, some people here tend to be a bit patronising. I hope I did not give that impression and I apologise if I did. I hope you will continue posting on the forum, as progress is made more rapidly when dissenting voices make themselves heard.

Have a good week-end everybody.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Good discussions here, I like it..... May I plaese add to this (as the developer) ?

Persionally I like a degree of intervention by the Trader, in my experince this is what makes trading worth while. For me, having a PC just do everything for me defeates the object of learning how to trade. Also I dont know of any truely mechanical system that has an outstanding performance, yes they can make money, but to make the big returns takes (in my opinion) skill.

Having said that I understand that may traders (expecially the TS8 users) would like to have a totally mechanical system, and I am working on this at the moment. But, at the moment, the best way to use this is to have the alerts tell you to take a closer look at the chart in question, then you make a decison on the pattern, R/R, and direction ($TRIN). With experience this can be done very easily and quickly. For example, yesterday I was also following the 3 and 5min ES, YM, NQ and AB, and for me there were very few good trades to coinsider. These I posted (at the time) earlier in tihs thread. Of these, only one was valid, the NQ, and that was the one that made the money. Then later, there were a few more potential set-up, but all had low R/R's so were invalid. So, for me, there was very little to do yesterday and only a few potentail set-ups to look more closely at. So yes, there we a number of "alerts" but there was actually not much analysis to do, and as such was not too demanding.

This is why I make such an effort to post so many examples here, to help you all get the most from the system.

I will continue my work on completly automating the system, and I will keep you all posted on my progress here, but untill then, I do recomned following longer time frames (3 and 5min equilivants) and then filtering with the $TRIN (advanced use here as well) and most of all, look for the nice clear clean and obvious ABC patterns, if you do this, then MTP will be able to nail some great trades for you. These are the ones I post on this forum, not because they worked, but because they are good exampels of what you should look for yourself.........

I hope this helps ?

Steve

[ericd2281]

Gentlemen,

Firstly, I would like to say the below statements are all my own thoughts/beliefs & opinions.

I think this thread is interesting for several reasons.......

1) In ANY hard-coded system or method of trading there will be questions of 'is A (time-frame/market traded/exit strategy/entry strategy or anything else) better than B (time-frame/market traded/exit strategy/entry strategy or anything else)?

The reality of it is.......every trader is an individual and needs to use a method that fits them personally. There is no 'best' system or method-If there was, then the markets wouldnt work because everyone would be in agreement and on the same side of the market. In my mind, that question is about as useful as asking what the BEST Color is. At some point though when one constantly questions the system or method they have chosen and re-calibrates or re-designs it they have no real method because it is always changing.

2) To properly statistically test, backtest & improve a system or change a timeframe or something else takes a TREMENDOUS amount of time to properly do. One simply cant look at a few anomolies and make acurate conclusions. Also, what is the best time frame or method one day may not be the best at some point in the future based on numerous factors. Markets are dynamic, traders seems to forget that from time to time.

3) The idea of expectancy in a system is not fully understood. % Wins & % Losses make up a piece of expectancy, but not the whole thing. There are other more important far more important factors.

4) Your system or method is only as good as the expectancy of the system minus the number of errors made during the period. If you have no method or system, or one that is frequently changing then everything is a mistake. I personally made ONE error during the first quarter and that dropped the expectancy (in terms of R) from 11.83R to 5.01R. I feel that a trader's errors made during a period reduce their profits far greater than the fact that their system or method isnt the 'best'.

4) I have found in my own trading that the easier and simpler I can make it, the better it is for me psychologically. If a trading system or method has........(A) a Positive Expectancy (B) Is EXACTLY followed and not second guessed (C) Proper Position Sizing (D) Has enough opportunity.......then you will make money over time.

Any responses or discussion thoughts are always appreciated.

Eric

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

What I find interesting is that traders basically fall into two catagories, the purely mechanical system person, and secondly, the more intutative trader who usees their skill. The former lives and dies by statistics and must absolutly blindly follow thier system come what may. Myself, I fall into the second catogory, wher I use my discresion, experince and skill to trade and will not take a trade unless I can "see" the chart and pattern. And to that end I created MTPredictor as a tool box, with tools that I could use to make the process of finding and then analysing trades quicker and easier for me.

I do find it slightly frustrating that MTP is sometimes reduced to a black-box, when there are so many tools in the box that can find such great trades set-ups, above and beyond the standard TS1, TS2 and TS3 trades set-ups. This is what I teach in the daily reports - how to move up the techniques curve to be able to get more from the software with some of the advanced tools

But then, we are not all the same............... so I think I am just trying to say, that MTP should not be judged purely on bare statistics on the purely mechanical routines in the software, when there is so much more to the software. For me this is like judging the performance of a race car when only staying in first gear, there is just so much more in the software for users if they wish to learn how to use it.............

Just a thought from the developer........ I am just so passonaite to make sure everybody gets the most from the software and as such improve thier trading.......... ths is why I spend so much time writing the daily report, recording all the help vidoes etc etc.....

Steve

[whatswiththispos]

I was not trying to be defensive but looking at my post I could see how it would be taken that way. I actually think Steve is great, he always answers e-mails and obviously for him to come on here and answer our concerns say's alot about him a as a business person. I was using a 100 tick chart because that is what Matt said to use on the(russell) ER. Per his post ES=233t YM=144t NQ=500t AB(er)=100t. I thought it was WAY too small a time frame and was not trading it I was observing. What brought me to MTP was that I was tired of staring at charts all day and was hoping to use the MTP RT platform to find trade setups and then verify that the setup was valid and to use the entry/stop/target's, soon after I bought, they switched to the EFS's which I think gives WAY more false setups then the MTP RT did(although I did not use it long enough to know for sure) it was much easier on the RT platform to see whether it was a nice ABC pattern, another complaint of mine is that the ABC patterns are hard to discern on the EFS's(there are no lines) on the ESIGNAL EFS's. I certainly am not looking for a trading "system" as I believe all sytems fail over time, IMO the market is way too efficient to give free money to a trading system. The mind plays a big part of beating the market. MTP has great features to it, I especially like the support and resistance areas and many times I trade off of those(even though it is not recommended) I think the only area that needs improvement is the filtering out of the false setups. When you replay the charts you will find that the TS setups are often VERY close to being right, they roll from one bar to the other(which I dont like) until you finally get stopped out for the final time and then it takes off in the right direction. Perhaps a larger stop or a more ideal time frame would help with that, although I have tried most everything and at this point feel that the software needs tweeking to maximize entry/stop points. Everyone have a great weekend(except you Steve, you have work to do) hahaha

[whatswiththispos]

one other quick observation, I dont think the Trin is all that important. It is at best a lagging indicator. There are just as many good long trades as short with a red Trin and vice/versa with a blue one. The angle of the Trin definitely is lagging the market.

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Whatswiththispos,

(this note is not directed at you, but rather all)

First, want to say thank you for raising some of these issues. It helps us stay on our feet here at MTPredictor. Second, I want to add that I'm no expert at trading, I have learned a lot over the years and enjoy sharing that information. I can hold my own at portfolio management and think that is one of the more import issue that is not being addressed here. Having said that, I make bad trades everyday and that is just part of trading.

Next, let me clear the air here on these tick charts... I simply offered them to the readers here who seemed to be interested in them. I know a very good E-mini trader who uses them so I thought I would add them as food for thought. I have seen no statistical evidence that tick charts are more profitable than standard minute charts. If somebody can validate this please step forward. Look I'm not better than any of you at trading with MTPredictor, we all get the same signals...it's a question of risk tolerance for the exits that makes us different, so if you find a time frame that works for your personality then guess what...that is the best one for you.

Ok, so why did I offer them? A very good friend of mine (who happens to be a very successful E-mini trader as well as MTPredictor user in Miami Florida) looks at tick charts and said those values seem to work very good with ABC patterns. In addition, she is very quick to point out that she confirms these charts with several other custom indicators that ultimately filter the trade selection process with longer term time frames. I'm pretty sure
Steve does not take every real-time setup that MTPredictor spits out because he's waiting for only the pristine setups...that's why it looks like most of Steve's trades are winners.

Look, I know that a lot of you spend a great deal of time slicing and dicing charts to find "the answer to your dreams" or the holy grail or whatever you want to call it... Let me give you a very simple answer: Don't pin your hopes on a time frame to tell you what you want to hear or see... One day the 3 minute charts will work the best, the next day it might be the 5 minute charts...and then somebody will come in and say they had a great day on tick charts. You can't be everywhere to every trade, you are going to miss some trades, that's just life...you can't be in LA and New York at the same time...this is leading you to over trade.

I think a lot of you want to take all of the setups here (even if you could), many people are not psychologically prepared to handle being wrong 6 out of 10 trades and this is what causing the frustration...you still have not accepted this as a truth of trading. speculation is a business it is neither guess work nor a gamble. It is hard work and plenty of it.

Let me be very clear with you, if you plan on trading every single setup you are going to be right about 38 to 42 percent of the time on Real-Time trades. Even in my trading newsletter you have seen all the trades and only 39% of those trades are profitable. Take a look at the performance of the last 6 months of trading the futures on the newsletter...In fact, go to the bottom of this page and look at the performance metrics before you read any further here... Go to the bottom and look at the performance...
Now, if I say: Hey, I've got a system that works 39% of the time...most people are going to laugh and think I'm a joke... but if I say: Hey, I've got a system that makes 217% trading over a six month period... now whose laughing? This is the difference between an armature trader and a professional. People see what they want to see. Everybody gets what they want in trading....

The percentage of winning trades in NOT how you make money...let me say this again...The percentage of winning trades in NOT how you make money. I see a lot of people complaining about how many failed setups they have on tick charts, the percentage is the same as that of daily or weekly bars... How about telling me some information that I can actually use, like how much profit per trade, Ratio of average winning trade to average losing trade, where the trades are expressed in dollars...telling me how many trades you win or lose on is like telling me how many red card drove by on the freeway today...it doesn't tell me anything. If you are getting too many trades on tick charts then it might be a wise decision to leave the tick charts alone (because you are not wired for that level of trading). In my opinion people should be made to trade on daily charts and once they prove themselves as profitable traders then if they want to move to intraday real-time trading they can. There is nothing worse then watching a person trade day trade a 10,000. account and just hack themselves to pieces by jumping from one idea to the next, one indicator to the next, one system to the next. First of all, if you are trading a $10,000 account and you are using 2% position sizing then you can only risk $200. per trade... there are not a lot of trades that offer $200. risk so that already tells me they are not using position sizing and they are not controlling risk. These people are only cheating themselves.

We are not hiding anything here as Tony Beckwith spent a full year trading and recording the real-time setups.

Here are the metrics:
http://www.mtpredictor.com/pricing/RTRecordold.html

Here was the equity curve:
http://www.mtpredictor.com/pricing/documents/RTPerformanceCurvedata220705.pdf

Notice he did not make money every week. We will tell you the truth, we are not like most vendors who will stand there and tell you what you want to hear, just to sell programs. We know what's possible and what is pure b*** s***. There is not a day that goes buy that somebody sends me something to read by anther vendor or software company and I know vendor is lying through their teeth just to sell another piece of software. Why? Here is what a very respected trader told me, he said: "Matt, In this business (the trading industry) it is one of the few industries where a vendor can be completely full of s*** and make a ton of money. In fact, If it sounds half as good as what vendors say, people will buy it just to see if it works or if it looks like a great package. If the people sound like they know what they are talking about...many people will buy into your thinking, this is no secret and the huckster vendors out there know this is fact." Trust me, I've spent many years going to trade shows flying all over the country doing seminars and I've heard so many war stories and how people got burned it's no longer funny...it's just another pathetic vendor selling a half-backed idea that they couldn't make money with...so they sell it to you. When I was a broker there was always somebody blowing out their trading account, but guess what...and the brokers are fine with this because they know that there are two guys standing at the door with checks in hand ready to deposit for a new trading account, it's like a treadmill or a revolving door...one falls off and two are ready to jump on.

I've seen I side of this business that would makes Atlantic City look like a play ground. It's like people don't even care if they lose, they just want to play the game. I've said this before, can you image some guy standing at the casino entrance holding a sign that says you are about to lose all you money in here... Do you think that's going to stop people from going in...no way, they want to be entertained. Did you know there are only three games in a casino where you can actually get the odds in your favor (Poker, Baccarat and Black Jack), the rest of them are a sucker bet. In other words, if you play them long enough, you are guaranteed to lose your bankroll... but how many people even stop to consider that? The point is people don't care... It's like the commercial says: "What goes on in Vegas...stays in Vegas" (that includes your money). Casino's bring out the worst in people...because you get a chance to see how they operate with their money. I love it when people brag about being a big player...Yeah man, the casino comps me a free room...Gee bob, how much did you unload at the tables last night...$2500, huh? Wow, let me see if I got this right, you lost $2500. gambling and the casino gave you a free room...sounds like a hell of deal to me. And Bob can't figure out why he can't make it as a trader.... The sad part is Bob feels special because he got a free room, the reality is Bob paid 2500. bucks for a room that cost 99. per night...Go figure!!!

I love trading and think it is the best business in the world... but trust me, it's loaded with failed traders who can't trade because they can't (or won't) treat it as a business. Why do you think we pound this idea of position sizing... because that's what is ultimately going to save you as a trader who does not know how to control their risk.

continued on next page

[Matt Bowen]

continued...

I think far too many people are day trading when they can't even make money using the End-of-Day software. That's like sending somebody who has just passed their Driving Test and then you send then to race in the Indy - 500... Seriously, I tell people all the time, that if they can't make money trading End-of-Day, they have no business trading Real-Time. This does not just pertain to MTPredictor, but ANY software program. Most people have no idea of what the psychological ramifications are when day trading and how easy it is to go into a self sabotage mode after 3 or 4 losing trades. I find that the majority of people day trading are those who have small trading accounts and feel that they must day trade in order to participate. Why do you think Steve is picky about his Elliott setups...because he only wants the best setups. In addition, most great day traders do not trade every day. They will take time off and rest...they do not feel compelled to sit down at the screen each morning and crack a home run...Most of the really good ones will wait for hours for the right setup and pattern to appear and then get in...but always on a controlled risk.

In addition, many traders hold this huge fear of holding overnight exposure because of having a small account...my only question is: "Are they really trading with RISK CAPITAL (like they said they were on the brokerage application)? " If you can't sleep at night...this is probably not risk capital. Here is something that Kelly Angle wrote that I think fits in well with what we are talking about.

Trading Myths about trading a small account by Kelly Angle
Trading Myth #1: A strategy of Broad Diversification reduces risk.

The Trading Reality: Significant returns from a small sum of investment capital are almost never created from a strategy of broad diversification. A small trading account can’t afford to be broadly diversified among many markets and actually creates risk in doing so. “Too many fishing poles in the water can over turn a small boat.” Broad diversification might preserve the assets in a nest egg, but specialization is the strategy that more than likely created the nest egg in the first place.

Trading Myth #2: Position trading for the major price move

is the most efficient way to trade successfully.

The Trading Reality: Even though my own personality is probably more compatible with long term trading, trying to trade long term strategies in a small account only has the best chance of success as long as the markets are generating long term price trends. Large exit stops are generally required when trading long-term-trend-following strategies. Unless you have a unique way to qualify the trading opportunity and stay in those markets that have a high probability of producing a major trend, a long series of losing trades using relative large exit stops will eventually erode ones trading capital. But after an individual trader discovers this fact, there is a great tendency for them to move from long term trading on to very short term or day trading strategies, which leads us to....

Trading Myth #3: Day or short term trading is the safest way to trade.

The Trading Reality: Quite often small traders will eventually find themselves either day trading or trading for the very short term move. The rationale is that if you don’t hold a position overnight, you reduce your exposure in the market and reduce your chances for a significant loss. In reality, short term trading eliminates the potential to generate a significant profit because your holding period for a trade is significantly reduced. It is difficult to take advantage of a long term trend when you are only trading for short term price moves.

Trading is a Technique (and Disciplined) Based Profession

Like a professional athlete, a trader’s results are directly related to his technique and skill. No matter how much you would like to successfully trade, unless you have an understanding of how your technique is going to facilitate your objectives, it’s not going to happen if the technique is not capable of getting the job done.

But even with the appropriate trading skill (or technique), it is worthless without consistently applying the demands of the trading system with absolute discipline each and every second the markets are trading. From my near 20 years of trading experience, I can assure you that most individual traders don’t execute either one or both of these valuable components because most people can’t afford to trade on a full time basis.

All the best,

[gremtp]

Well, again, quite a lot of responses. Very good! All of the above just add to my points. I am quite happy, actually.
Just some additional observations.
I agree with Steve on the skills side. I think that some people are born traders and some are not. I am afraid I have to say that perhaps I am not. I am undisciplined, inconsistent and tend to get bored quite easily. I have lost tons of money at the beginning following my gut-feeling. I have to recognise my limits. I am relatively better at statistics. For me then, “skills” means the ability to identify and create a “system” that has a reasonable statistical expectancy, be as simple as possible, be free (as much as possible) from curve fitting, have low drawdown …. And is fun trading.
On the other hand I also agree that a purely mechanical system (in the sense that you push a button, walk away and come back to see what happened) does not work, for a number of reasons (the unreliability of technology, if nothing else!)

I agree very much with Eric, on all points. For instance I have a system that so far this year has had an expectancy of about 3.5 Did I get it? No, of course. I am just above breakeven. Why? Because in January signals in many markets fired on the 3rd and I was on holiday and the internet connection did not work for 3 days!! On Feb I have had a DD of about 20% (and no. I do not trade just a 10K account) . But I know that I have a 4 year statistics that say that expectancy is about 5. Good enough for me. I continued trading it and in March I recovered.
Ah, to anticipate on Matt’s response: the average win/lose ratio is about 30%, so even lower that yours, therefore I feel exempt from all the (right) talks about “the percentage of winning trades is NOT how to make money”.

Anyway, this is another of the reasons why I am interested in MTP. It is a different approach. I am not sure whether to completely “mechanise” MTP RT rules would work. Probably you cannot completely mechanise art… and I am sure many pure MTP converted will not be happy with it. It may become a different product and I actually can see Steve’s point on his frustration to reduce the MTP concept to a mere black box. Without going that far, certainly some work on filtering would enhance the software, and I agree with whatswiththispos: ELDs (or EFS) could be bettered.

Some more observations on. whatswiththispos
a) Personally, what I find I cannot accept is to use 100 (or whatever) tick chart just because Matt (or whoever) said so. I mean, my quest is for the reasons why a particular number should be used, not just the number itself. OK, that will take me ages to find out, since there seems to be no real reason.
b) I have TS and on TS you can actually see the lines (quite useful for novices like me). I understand that you can’t yet on ESignal, though.
c) I am testing an idea of entering not one tick beyond the coloured bar, but looking at the previous bars too and see if there is a significant “sort of break-out point” that would make more sense. It reduces R/R and you have to take this into account, but it may save from many false alerts. No idea whether it works or not, just an idea for testing, until I become an “artist” like Steve J.
d) I agree that the TRIN filter may be frustrating, as I showed in my example of ER2. I see that Durgesh proposes (on Dow Jones) a moving average on daily bars to decide where the trend is and use that as a filter. Not new, but more ideas to test…….In my testing so far I cannot really tell if it is statistically better or not.

On Matt’s response: WOW, at last I have found someone who talks (writes) more that I do! These observations are related to MTP RT only.
Nobody is accusing anybody for putting forward the tick chart idea.. I guess we (or just I) are just trying to find out more about it.
Again (and this goes back to my original point on marketing) you and Steve are probably underestimating the power that you and your website/forum have on a number of people. Look at it: if you say 100 tick chart, it appears that many people may jump onto the 100 tick chart frenzy. Obviously when it does not work they complain, as they complain when they see a 12R trade that you publish and they miss because it was on 5 minutes chart and they use tick charts…. Etc.
We have been here before. When I bought MTO EOD I wanted to understand how you got your EOD set ups. I wanted to know how to replicate what you did, to have at least a starting point and understand. After that I could move on and try my modifications. If Steve tells me that he uses 3 and 5 minutes charts, what do you think I will start using?
So, because I have initially lived these frustrations, I wanted, among other things, to explain why some people may have some reasons for doing that. I hope I have managed to clarify a bit now.
You nail the issue on the head when you say that people see what they want to see. They see, in the RT version, that you can make 300% in a month (or whatever). Great, mine! But then they realise this is not so easy. Yes, you (MTP) do say that many trades are losses, you do warn people that they have to read the 500 plus page manual (….) and videos, you do show losing trades as well, etc., but it is not very clear at the beginning that this result is achieved by trading sometimes the YM, some other time the ES, some times on 5 minutes charts, some time the 233 tick chart etc. So where to start from? Especially (but not only) to “untrained” eyes, it may well look as if the wonder trades were cherry picked. People see what they want to see, and these are your customers or potential customers. Whether this is right or wrong does not matter. You may choose to ignore this or to address it. I am not the MTP marketing manager and I will stop dwelling on this. I am just trying to help clarifying it. Kudos to you (MTP) for listening and addressing it.

Also, you (Matt) are right when you say that one cannot use all the market/timeframes combinations. I am testing as many as I can, but I do not intend to use them all as a system. Which one to follow, then? Well, one could toss a coin or believe some gurus and go for combination 1,2. 3. 5 and 8 (hey can you notice a pattern here? …;)
Or one can try to assess what ON AVERAGE works better, what expectancy, etc. something more scientific that tossing a coin. Perhaps the result is the same, but at least one… well, I will feel better. I am looking for a way to be happy to be in LA rather than going to NY, to use your example, and I agree with you and all the others who said this: it is highly subjective.

I agree entirely with what you write on the last part of your message: trading is a Technique and Disciplined based profession. But then perhaps I am missing something. I do not understand why I seem to create such a fuss in some quarters when I am trying to find a way to research and build up the technique and the discipline (rules?) that I would be comfortable with.

Great thread. Thanks everybody

[Vernon]

Hi, Matt!
Very nice performances you posted on April 2th!
But ... where did you trail the SL at breakeven ( when the prices touch 100% or 2-3 zone?)and where do you gather the profits ( at 3x level or at first target profit) ?
Then : did you count the breakevens as winnings or as looses?
Vernon

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Vernon,

These stops were trailed from the 2-3 profit target and then we moved to breakeven. These rules are diferent then the standard rules. However, for the next 6 months I'm going to use Steve's rules found on chapter 9 of the free trading course. If you click on the link below, you can read the entire chapter on "Managing the standard trade setups" Click below:

http://www.mtpredictor.com/TC/TradingCourse1.html

As for Target levels we did not move or trail stops until we hit the first WPT target level...again, the standard stop placement can be is covered in chapter 9 of the free trading course.

No, I did not count breakevens as wins, because in trading you have a minus sum-game where you have one loser and one winner, but you both have to pay the broker. All trades can be seen in the latest MTP risk report:

http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?t=632

All the best,

[Vernon]

So that:
1- As soon the day close( not only touching but closing beyond the 200% line!) beyond 200% level, you'll trail the SL at breakeven!
2. You'll follow then the Steve's rules of trailing SL as soon as the first day will close inside of the first WPT target zone.
Is this what you meant?
Why don't you preffer to follow also Steve's rules also for the first trailing? He reccomended the first trailing as soon as the Day close beyond the 100% profit line!
You preffered 200% line instead of Steve's 100% line! Why?Also on RT Tony's last year simulation, he preffered the first trailing again not as Steve said!
I guess this:
The logic behind this variation from the Steve's rule is:
You want to give the market some more "room", otherwise, the market will turn back soon , right prior reaching the 2-3 zone!
As I can see here:
From your valuable simulations(EOD) and from Tony's RT simulation ( last year) it looks like it works better than what Steve "asked" in his book! I mean to have the first trailing SL not as soon as prices touch 100% line, but at 200%line!
Vernon

[Steve Griffiths]

I see Matt's report has made a 228% return, which in my opinion is pretty dam good :)

Well done Matt, you have done well here ............

Steev

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Vernon,

First, if you took the time to understand who this ABC module worked, you would see that this model is robust and it does not need a specific exit strategy to make it work. In fact, Philippe proved that to you with his 1 year test of 4 different exit strategies.

http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?t=297

Here are the final results of Phillips

http://www.mtpredictor.com/documents/MTPIntermediatetrades2005.xls

Second, stops are about risk tolerance and every trader's risk tolerance is different from the next. In chapter 9 of the trading course Steve outlines a guideline with very low risk tolerance (that is designed to preserve maximum capital).

1- As soon the day close( not only touching but closing beyond the 200% line!) beyond 200% level, you'll trail the SL at breakeven!

Yes, this is where the stop was moved to breakeven on all the trades.

Why don't you preffer to follow also Steve's rules also for the first trailing? He reccomended the first trailing as soon as the Day close beyond the 100% profit line!You preffered 200% line instead of Steve's 100% line! Why?


My risk tolerance is larger than what is outlined in the standard stop placement covered in chapter 9 of the course. However, that comes at a price as you get chewed up a lot more during a drawdown. Notice that Philippe had a win/loss of 5.4 on 33% winning trades vs, the MTP risk report which had a 3.5 win/loss with 39 winning trades. Do you see why Steve's rules actually work better,you get less winning trades, but you get $5.40 vs. $3.50 per trade (that's a big difference).

If I had been using Steve's rules, the drawdown would have been less and we would have made more money, but we had more losing trades. That's what most people don't consider when trading, in order to get an advantage, you have to give something up.

One thing you have to factor in with tight stops is that you are going to get stopped out more often, but also remember that wide stops do not guarantee greater profit percentage or a better win/loss ratio. You have to go through several drawdown cycles to see where the system will perform best, Steve has done this and outline what works best for MTP traders.

My conclusion is that Steve's rules will produce more money (In my book, there is not a huge difference between Steve's 33% winning trades and my 39%, but there is a big difference between my 3.5 win/loss and Steve's 5.4 win/loss.

Hope that helps,

Matt

[Vernon]

As I outlined before, your EOD results, Matt are pretty identical to the RT results of Tony!
And this is why: The fact that both of you use about the same trailing stop system. None of you trailed the SL when prices reach 100% limit, but beyond 200%.
So: identical results even if different time frames, different markets!
Congratulations, Steve!
Regarding Philippe's results: If you read attentive , he didn't use a certain money management rule: he traded one lot only!We will wait for your next 6 months results following exactly Steve's rules!
I'll no longer consider Philippe's results untill you'll finish the next 6 months experiment!
Vernon

[Vernon]

Hi Matt, Hi Steve!
Some thoughts while waiting for the next 6 months of EOD simulation using the much-talked-about rules of Steve as Matt said before :
Some of your customers noted here a few times that there are a lot of confusion in showing the performances MTP can give to someone using it! And he's right!
Two comments:
MTP is some more than a simple tool ( as your newbies and advanced customers said). But if you want to show to the potential customers this product , I guess you'll have to create a very simple system based essentially only upon MTP! You can do it because your MTP is so complete and so versatile in the same time as it can do this!
Here are what Tony did one year ago for RT , here are what Matt is doing now for EOD: different markets , different Time Frame! But... about the same statistical results! These results speak from themselfs!
From this picture it miss right the much expected simulation, that is right that showed in the First ( Free) Part of the Course.That is that developed by Steve!
The second comment:
The greatest part of your customers / non customers are NON-experienced traders. As non -experienced traders , they need more to know something simple, like what did Tony and Matt, is a clear and obvious, yet simply form, without any other additional indicators ( maybe lagging!!!).
There are not many traders as Durghesh, or maybe McDirt and so on!
You're perfectly right when saying that MTP is extremely versatile as a piece of a trading assembly tools, but... I think this is not the main part of what really the non-experienced /newbies traders are expected from MTP !
So that, from my point of view, it miss a little piece of the MTP performance puzzle!
Any comments are wellcome!
Vernon

[Steve Griffiths]

Agreed, you have missed the point..............

Phillippe has produced some great results using MTPredictor that he has kindly posted to this Forum. Matt has also shown soem great results from his report.

For me that is what is important - can MTPredictor make money - well these two sets of results answer that very well indeed.

There are aslo many other traders who post regularly on this Forum that are making some great money using the software (I think Durgesh is over 1,360% return in 9 month now !).

Thanks

Steve

[Tony Beckwith]

To clarify one point - the trade management I used for the published 12mth. RT performance numbers did not include stop movement on reaching +2x risk.
Management was strictly according to the WPT target levels, though not standard.

Philippe's published statistical work using several trade management strategies, figures from me and from Matt, plus the clear, published profitability of traders such as Durgesh and pbb - all this shows that variations around Steve's standard trade management guidelines can work well, especially if they suit the personal risk tolerance of the individual trader better.

In the end, there are many different ways to use MTPredictor to make money. But each way is firmly rooted in the MTP process and each trader will fashion their personal set of guidelines from what we make available - my approach is more rule-based but, of course, even those using great trading 'artistry' or 'intuition' show immense discipline and focus in their own way.

Personally, I think Steve's standard trade management guidelines are simple, logical, difficult to beat and should be followed by everyone at least to start with!!

Tony.