3min NQ

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Here is another great example of the ABC pattern at work. A clear cean 3 swing ABC, reversing off the Typical Wave C WPT with a blue (buy) bar nailling the low, which was the low of the day !!!

Turing an initial risk of approx $385 into a profit off approx $2,600 .... nice :)

Hope you all caught this one...............

Steve

[NHN123]

Hi Everybody,

Here is another great example of the ABC pattern at work. A clear cean 3 swing ABC, reversing off the Typical Wave C WPT with a blue (buy) bar nailling the low, which was the low of the day !!!

Turing an initial risk of approx $385 into a profit off approx $2,600 .... nice :)

Hope you all caught this one...............

Steve
Hi Steve,

I passed this one for a few reasons:

Not very symetrical (in my opinion)
swings weren't that clean and clear (again, in my opinion)
a bar closed below the typ c wpt (by about 100% thickness) and then the next bar went lower still (albeit by 1 tick)

I know the TRIN was falling at the time, but there were too many reasons for me not to take this trade.

Please could you explain to me the reasons why this was a good set up.

I'm not criticising at all; I really just want to learn what trades to take, and what to pass on.

Thanks
Nick

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Nick,

Just looked a nice set-up. A clear 3-swing decline. I have added the ABC connecting lines (in TS8) to help "see" the ABC pattern

Yes the $TRIN was declining at the time - which added to the set-up.

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

I also liked the way the 15min ER2 was making a perfect TS3 buy set-up at the same time :)

Just added weight to a low forming.......

See below.

I hope this helps ?

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Nick,

PS, forgot to say well done on your 60-min Euro trade............ that was a huge profit...........

Nice one....

[NHN123]

Hi Nick,

Just looked a nice set-up. A clear 3-swing decline. I have added the ABC connecting lines (in TS8) to help "see" the ABC pattern

Yes the $TRIN was declining at the time - which added to the set-up.

Steve

Thanks for taking the time to reply - i appreciate it.

I am having a real problem picking winners at the moment. I don't care if I lose on a trade, so long as I win some too. However, I am getting the same set ups as you, but not taking them, but I am taking others that you are not (the bad ones/losers).

Obviously, experience counts for a lot. And when it comes to trading - some people are just plain gifted, and some of us aren't!

Could you take a look at the trades I took today please, and tell me what is wrong with them, and why you didn't take them.... Just so I know where I am going wrong...

cheers
Nick

[Steve Griffiths]

Nothing. these look good and were just losing tardes. Losses do happen, so you would be down -2 risk units (-$800) here and then +6.5 (+$2,600) profit on the other trade, so 2 losses and 1 profit, but made money overall (+ 4.5 risk units or approx +$1,800) - this is what position sizing is all about...

Some advice, perhaps you need to take some time on some longer terms charts, as this will give you more time to make the trade decision. Trading 3min charts is tricky as you have to make your decisions very quickly, so while learning better to take more time - hence the longer time frames.

I hope this will help.............

Steve

[gremtp]

Hi
Well done again, Steve.

For the “statisticians” out there, here is my experience for yesterday. Please be lenient as this is quite an approximate and subjective exercise and I may have made some mistakes. Treat it ball park and food for thought.

By the way, this is very much in line with Steve’s report today, who anticipated me on this one :).
;) Steve, your report today goes a great deal towards what I was referring to in many of my previous posts. I think people may get a more balanced view and a better idea of what to expect from the software. Thank you for listening.

I express results in points, as the number of lots varies from person to person. It gives the idea anyway. I took only long signals, as the Trin was blue and static virtually all day. The Trin filter was good yesterday, as it prevented to take many short signals that would have ended up in a loss. You may remember that some days ago it did exactly the opposite and prevented me to take some profitable trades. Again, is it better to use it or not? Only a test over a significantly long time could tell……..I stop here on this one ;)

ES 3 min: 1 loss of 1.75 points
ES 5 min: nothing
ER2 3 min: 1 loss of at 1.1 points
NQ 3 min: 1 profit of about 10.5 points
NQ 5 min: 1 profit of about 12 points
YM 3 min : nothing
YM 5 min: nothing

For those who use 20K capital and 2% risk it would have ended up with over 3,500$ profit, based on a rough calculation and not taking into account slippage and commission.
So, once again Steve is vindicated. But let me just once more dwell on the original argument and say that if I had opted to just concentrate on ES and ER2 only and 3 minutes only, I would have made a loss. Then I would have read your report and I would have kicked the screen and MTP out of the window! ;)

On 15, 30 and 60 minutes time frames there were:
15 min: 1 Long trade on ER2 for a profit of about 3.5 points
30 min: 1 Long trade on ER2 for a profit of about 3 points
Technically, the R/R was just below 2:1, but let’s not be too picky.

On the tick chart side, however… it was not so good.
By the way, I have decided not to not take tick charts trades as I still know too little on tick charts and their behaviour. I use them to compare them with 3 and 5 minutes charts sometimes.
Just taking the Long there would have been:
ES 133 : 2 losses (2 points total) , 1 scratch and 1 profit (3 points) , ending up with about 1 point profit. Striclty speaking, only 2 set-ups were above 2:1 and they would have ended up a scratch and a point loss.
ES 266: 1 scratch
ER2 133: 1 scratch
ER2 266: 2 losses for about 1 point each
NQ 133: 3 losses (two even looked pretty nice set ups to me) for a total of 5 points
NQ 266: 1 loss of 1.75 points
YM 133: 1 loss of 9 points and 1 scratch
YM 266: nothing

Very briefly, having a look at 144 and 266 tick charts, I have found that they would not have given any valid signal (either they were short or had a R/R lower than 2). The 2 that could have been taken (just) would have been quite hairy and almost certainly I would have scratched them before they could achieve their first target.

In my opinion, so far, tick charts have not been extremely successful with MTP-RT. Also I am quite put off by them as even small changes from 133 to 144 or 233 to 266 produce quite different results. Not really stuff for statisticians like me!
But my opinion is based on a couple of weeks and this means nothing. Again, exactly my point.
I hope this helps a bit. If it doesn’t, do not worry, I do not plan to do this often, or at all!

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi,

Thanks for your feedback, as you say I do try and be as honest as I can and I do report losses as well as porfits but your example here of

ES 3 min: 1 loss of 1.75 points
ES 5 min: nothing
ER2 3 min: 1 loss of at 1.1 points
NQ 3 min: 1 profit of about 10.5 points
NQ 5 min: 1 profit of about 12 points
YM 3 min : nothing
YM 5 min: nothing

For those who use 20K capital and 2% risk it would have ended up with over 3,500$ profit, based on a rough calculation and not taking into account slippage and commission.

Does demonstrate this point well and is what I teach and is the basis of the MTPredicor approach - keeping the losses small and the profits large. This is what makes the money over time, not being right on each and every tarde.

I am gald that you enjoyed todays report and had a good and very profitable day yesterday using MTPredictor :)

Steve

[pauli134]

Hi,

Thanks for your feedback, as you say I do try and be as honest as I can and I do report losses as well as porfits but your example here of

ES 3 min: 1 loss of 1.75 points
ES 5 min: nothing
ER2 3 min: 1 loss of at 1.1 points
NQ 3 min: 1 profit of about 10.5 points
NQ 5 min: 1 profit of about 12 points
YM 3 min : nothing
YM 5 min: nothing

For those who use 20K capital and 2% risk it would have ended up with over 3,500$ profit, based on a rough calculation and not taking into account slippage and commission.

Does demonstrate this point well and is what I teach and is the basis of the MTPredicor approach - keeping the losses small and the profits large. This is what makes the money over time, not being right on each and every tarde.

I am gald that you enjoyed todays report and had a good and very profitable day yesterday using MTPredictor :)

Steve


Steve....a question...The 2 nq trades wrer both signaled at apx the same time...the analysis suggests we should have taken both....Is this correct...? I was under the impression that only the trade with the better rr would be taken and then you would manage the position from the larger time frames perspective ....?

Paul

[pauli134]

Hi,

Thanks for your feedback, as you say I do try and be as honest as I can and I do report losses as well as porfits but your example here of

ES 3 min: 1 loss of 1.75 points
ES 5 min: nothing
ER2 3 min: 1 loss of at 1.1 points
NQ 3 min: 1 profit of about 10.5 points
NQ 5 min: 1 profit of about 12 points
YM 3 min : nothing
YM 5 min: nothing

For those who use 20K capital and 2% risk it would have ended up with over 3,500$ profit, based on a rough calculation and not taking into account slippage and commission.

Does demonstrate this point well and is what I teach and is the basis of the MTPredicor approach - keeping the losses small and the profits large. This is what makes the money over time, not being right on each and every tarde.

I am gald that you enjoyed todays report and had a good and very profitable day yesterday using MTPredictor :)

Steve


Steve....a question...The 2 nq trades were signaled at apx the same time...10:45 to 10:50 ....the analysis suggests we should have taken both....Is this correct...? I was under the impression that only the trade with the better rr and or entry level would be taken and then you would manage the position from the larger time frames perspective ....?

Paul

[Steve Griffiths]

Exactly, this is what I reported in my daily report...........

Thanks

[pauli134]

Got it....