EURJPY 4 Hr

[Eddo]

I thought this looked interesting in that it has a nice even ABC swing into the Typ Wpt and a red reversing bar - with a potential RR of over 4 do any of the experience Forex traders have any comments?

[Eddo]

Well its now 13:28 (UK time) and we still arn't there quite yet :confused:

[Eddo]

Ok, I have placed a stop order to go short at 143.95 with stops at 144.31 - now I sit back and wait and see - it doesn't look all that promising but you never know and my risk is once again 1R v a potential reward of +4 -

[Eddo]

So we are now sitting smack in the middle of the Typ WPT, however if the current bar doesn't hold here all bets will be off for the time being - if on the other hand this bar holds (or drops) and we can then put in a nice red bar, we might be cooking I am thinking ;)

[Eddo]

So, I think we are now at point which will make or break this potential trade - this bar has started off nicely and if it can continue like that I will be placing my entry if its lowest point is taken out by the following bar with my stop at 144.50 - the size of that risk (once known) will determine my position size based on my max risk being 2% of my trading capital - I am sure you all know that, but if anyone has any comments please feel free to put me right ! :(

[Eddo]

Well, for me this one is now too far past the Typ Wpt and I won't be taking the trade if it sets up from here - it is however a good example of how 'waiting for the moment' rather than rushing in too early kept me out of trouble - so I keep my powder dry on this one and wait for the next until I see the whites of its eyes :)

[brs910]

Yes i've had an eye on this setup for the past 16 hours or so. I wasn't convinced by the daily however and seeing as we're coming off a few days of light trading over Easter (assumed only; i haven't looked at volume) caution was shown.

Using eSignal data i've had 3 TS3 alerts. The first did not produce an entry trigger however the second (about 8 hours ago) did and would have resulted in a 30 pip loss. The third and current setup bar is still forming.

I've done a lot of backtesting using the bar replay mode in eSignal using 60, 240 and daily forex charts. I've found some of the most profitable trades have been those that aren't necessarily text book examples. Often a few false starts, or a colored bar outside of a typical or max wpt will give way to a great trade producing 4 - 8 RR. This trade reminds me of many i encountered backtesting; be interesting to see what unfolds.

[Eddo]

Many thanks for your input. I am using the Esignal data as well and am very interested in what you have to say and will re-visit this potential trade. As a matter of interest what time frames do you feel are most reliable on your Forex trading - I am only monotiring (running) 4 hr charts for 21 forex markets plus 5 & 15 min charts for the $INDU and $SPX (which has my computer gasping for breath !). I don't think it could cope with other time frames for my forex markets as well - what are you running?

Thanks again for your input - :)

[brs910]

I have an eSignal layout for daily charts, which i open daily to write the data to my txt files. I then use the EOD software to look at the daily charts freeing up eSignal to only worry about the Intraday charts.

MTP is finding good trades on 240 and 60 minute charts. I did some work on 180 and 720 charts initially as well but felt i was just creating more work for myself, with potentially little to gain. If a good trade is there i believe it will emerge on either a 60, 240 or daily chart.

Tonight it's got 40 pips from a TS3 buy on the 60 EUR and 50 pips from a TS3 sell on the 60 CHF. A TS3 buy on the 60 GBP wasn't tradeable due to an unacceptable RR ratio but would have produced 50 pips as well. I find the setups don't always look balanced and clean on the 60 charts but they don't seem to suffer a worse win/loss ratio any more than those on the 240 charts. I just like to refer back to the daily charts to see if the trend is established and in progress, consolidating or turning.

I only monitor 10 - 12 pairs, as the rest have too large a spread to justify trading on an intraday basis. Perhaps on a good daily setup they would be OK but a 12 point spread will kill a lot of setups on the 60 charts. Still very much formulating my approach to MTP and how i will implement it into my forex trading; a work in progress but very encouraging to date :)

[Eddo]

Many thanks - thats very very helpful

Chris :)