EURGBP 4 Hour Trade

[Eddo]

This one has just fired for me and I'am on board - anyone else on for the ride :) ? It doesn't have the greatest R:R about 2 but for me this one is a Forex practice :D

[martinrcox]

This one has just fired for me and I'am on board - anyone else on for the ride :) ? It doesn't have the greatest R:R about 2 but for me this one is a Forex practice :D

Hi Chris,

I hope that this one works out. It looks like it might given that it has broken down decisively below the previous low. I have a couple of queries. On my data the top of the wave C is at the same level as the top of the wave A. Also it does not seem to be a clean and clear ABC for the same reason that I mentioned above.

I would be interested in your thoughts

[Eddo]

Hi Martin,

Yes is not the very best I have seen and it would have been nicer if the C were a little higher (i.e. at the Typ Wpt rather than the Min Wpt) but my data (Esignal) has the C wave higher (just) than the A swing, and I can see a relatively OK ABC - as I said - its not the best and the R:R is only just acceptable - lets see how it goes - my Risk is very small with a £5 pp position in at 0.6904 and my stop in at 0.6940 :rolleyes:

[Eddo]

Another day, another dollar ! Well so far this seems to be going nowhere fast :mad:. Having said that this trade was a very marginal call in the first place so I'am still in and will wait to see what today brings :)

[NHN123]

Hi Chris,

Interesting on the daily chart for this pair.

After a 5 wave sequence, looks to me to be in a correction down, where it seems to be bouncing around the fib retracements (of the 5 wave up).

Just my opinion, but you may want to see how it reacts at 6875 (if it gets there) as this has three important levels - wave 1 high (ish), wave 4 low (ish), and 61.8% retracement of the whole sequence.

Probably will mean nothing, but I'm very bored so looking for things....

Nick

[NHN123]

Hi Chris,

Interesting on the daily chart for this pair.

After a 5 wave sequence, looks to me to be in a correction down, where it seems to be bouncing around the fib retracements (of the 5 wave up).

Just my opinion, but you may want to see how it reacts at 6875 (if it gets there) as this has three important levels - wave 1 high (ish), wave 4 low (ish), and 61.8% retracement of the whole sequence.

Probably will mean nothing, but I'm very bored so looking for things....

Nick

looks like those damn fundamentals are going to spoil it again....

[Eddo]

Yes - rather looking like its going to bite the dust :mad: however the pos aspect of that is that I will then be one more trade closer to a winning one! :p Talk about going through life with the glass half full rather than half empty eh !

[Eddo]

Nick

- on a totally seperate subject, can you tell me what settings (size wise) and file format you are saving your charts which you post on here? I use Snagit and seem to either get silly little snaps which can hardly been seen or I get monsters which take up the whole screen.

Chris

[NHN123]

I'm having a bad run at the moment. Just went long GBPJPY, and looks like I'm getting stopped out too. Triggered at the high, and never in profit....

I'm keeping the faith in the good old law of averages too at the moment... I've gotta have a winner soon!

Good luck

[Eddo]

I did the same, Iam on that one too !!

[NHN123]

Nick

- on a totally seperate subject, can you tell me what settings (size wise) and file format you are saving your charts which you post on here? I use Snagit and seem to either get silly little snaps which can hardly been seen or I get monsters which take up the whole screen.

Chris

I ctrl+alt+print screen then turn it into a JPEG picture, about 70KB usually.

I have made the "restore down" size of my MTP into a nice size for posting, so I don't have to mess about changing sizes and deforming it.

Hope that helps?

[Eddo]

Hmm thanks - nothing happened when I tried that. I will play around with my snagit thing until I get it right - thanks again - were still hanging on in there with my EURGBP short and GBPJPY long - its going to be a good day ....... I just know it is :rolleyes:

[NHN123]

I'm having a bad run at the moment. Just went long GBPJPY, and looks like I'm getting stopped out too. Triggered at the high, and never in profit....

I'm keeping the faith in the good old law of averages too at the moment... I've gotta have a winner soon!

Good luck
looks like we might get a second pop at it.

don't know whether i'll bother cos of the data this morning. fundamentals aren't there... what do you think?

Now watch it rally!

[Eddo]

:) certainly starting to look better now - I am going to hang onto it and watch it run :)

[NHN123]

:) certainly starting to look better now - I am going to hang onto it and watch it run :)

did you not get stopped out the first time round?

i'm in on it again

[Eddo]

No, not stopped out - I'am trading on a spreadbet account and have my stop at 209.44 - I think I got to about 2 pips from it then the relief came in - lets hope that it keeps going

[NHN123]

No, not stopped out - I'am trading on a spreadbet account and have my stop at 209.44 - I think I got to about 2 pips from it then the relief came in - lets hope that it keeps going
my stop was at 209.51.

what spreadbet firm you using?

[Eddo]

This one is on with CMC Markets (ex deal4free)

[NHN123]

This one is on with CMC Markets (ex deal4free)

I got stopped out with cmc, see attached chart. I got stopped out on the 12 o'clock bar. Just wondering if your data is different seeing as we are both using cmc.

Nick

[Eddo]

That looks exactly the same as my CMC chart - but my stop is at 209.44 and it only drops to 209.46 which is why I am still in. Because of the spreads, I always give a little bit of 'wiggle' room over and above the MTP stop level - so on this one I had an MTP stop at 209.48 so I placed mine 4 pips below that to take account of the spread -

[Eddo]

Ah - I think I see what you are doing - your getting your setups from MTP and then basing your entry and stop levels on the equivalent bar on the CMC chart ? - I have thought of doing that but gave up and now just take the Esignal data, add/subtract a bit of wiggle room and hope that the CMC data won't be too far out !:confused:

[NHN123]

Ah - I think I see what you are doing - your getting your setups from MTP and then basing your entry and stop levels on the equivalent bar on the CMC chart ? - I have thought of doing that but gave up and now just take the Esignal data, add/subtract a bit of wiggle room and hope that the CMC data won't be too far out !:confused:
Wiggle room, I see, and it saved your bacon this time !

[Eddo]

I hope the attached makes my last note clear

[NHN123]

I hope the attached makes my last note clear
Thanks for that Chris, unfortunately I am using Trade station data and that put the stop at 55, I use the furthest away of cmc or tradestation for my stop. Neither helped me this time !!

[Eddo]

I know its a bugger - what I do is take the spread and divide that by two (to give me my wiggle) I then add half the spread to the MTP entry level and add half to the MTP stop level - clearly makes the R:R less attractive but I then ensure that my position size has taken this 'fudge' into account as well which keeps my R:R in line - just smaller positions than I would be able to take without if I didn't have to cope with the spread

[NHN123]

I know its a bugger - what I do is take the spread and divide that by two (to give me my wiggle) I then add half the spread to the MTP entry level and add half to the MTP stop level - clearly makes the R:R less attractive but I then ensure that my position size has taken this 'fudge' into account as well which keeps my R:R in line - just smaller positions than I would be able to take without if I didn't have to cope with the spread

So on these charts, that display bids, you would add 4 pips to the bid, for entry, then buy on the offer (+8 pips in this case)? And then stop on the bid - 4?

I did think of doing something similar a while ago, cos they too often get triggered and then fail on short term charts. Might devose something along those lines myself...

[Eddo]

Now it got me :mad:

[Eddo]

Back to my EURGPP trade ! Anyone got any comment or thoughts - should I cut and run or hang on in ?? :confused:

[NHN123]

Back to my EURGPP trade ! Anyone got any comment or thoughts - should I cut and run or hang on in ?? :confused:

Hi Chris,

That was a lucky escape yesterday...

I'm slightly bearish on this pair due to the weekly charts.

But, I have lost every trade in recent memory, so you may want to do the opposite to whatever I say, then you're sure to be a successful trader.

Nick

[Eddo]

Thanks for your input Nick !

Sorry about your recent run but don't worry about the losing trades, they are nothing other than a business expense and as long the position sizing and R:R on your trades is correct you won't have a problem - with MTP your going to get at least 45-50% winning trades and thats more than enought to make you money :).

If the losing run is really getting you down can I suggest that you go and play the Van Tharp Marble Game a few times (I always do when I'am pulling my hair out) and it always brings me back to the basic fact that even with totally random picks (which is not what we are getting with MTP) as long as your position sizing is right, you are going to make money - works every single time and I have never ever gone bust playing it :)

[NHN123]

Thanks for your input Nick !

Sorry about your recent run but don't worry about the losing trades, they are nothing other than a business expense and as long the position sizing and R:R on your trades is correct you won't have a problem - with MTP your going to get at least 45-50% winning trades and thats more than enought to make you money :).

If the losing run is really getting you down can I suggest that you go and play the Van Tharp Marble Game a few times (I always do when I'am pulling my hair out) and it always brings me back to the basic fact that even with totally random picks (which is not what we are getting with MTP) as long as your position sizing is right, you are going to make money - works every single time and I have never ever gone bust playing it :)

You know what. That is so right.

I done a little experiment with the horse racing the other week. Pick any random day, choose the favourite in every race (hardly ever wins), but if you stick to good money management, you will more often than not come out winning slightly. Money management is the most important thing - I just wish I learnt that a few years ago before I blew my account out a couple of times!

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

I hope you all caught this EURGBP 240min short ?

Steve

[Eddo]

Hi Steve,

Yes this is the one I started this link with but its really really struggling

Chris

[Eddo]

Actually Steve I have just had another look at your chart and I notice that your red bar came in one before mine (and mine was unfortunately a really big one). Are you using Esignal data and if so, why would yours have gone red one bar before mine - my charts for this trade are all posted on the link so you can see mine - thanks - Chris

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Chris,

I use eSignal as well, with 24hr as my time settings, so I cannt see why there should be a dirrerence ?

Steve

[kumara_xl]

But steve,
the shape looks horrible.How did you enter this trade???:confused:

[Eddo]

Steve, thats all a bit worrying for be frank - we are using the same data feed, the same 24 hr settings and the same code (EURGBP A0-FX) and you are getting different set-ups to me !! The other thing I notice is that on your chart that particular set-up is still showing - on mine it disapeared as you will see on the last of my three attachments - could your tech people look into this please - it doesn't look right - many thanks

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Chris,

This Forum is not rearly the place for technical questions, these should be directed to Support@MTPredictor.net

I have doubled checked here this morning, and I see the difference. This is because our data is different. I have this TS3 high appearing 4 bars after the prior TS1 low (on 8:00 in the 18th), and you only have 3 bars.

Why there is a difference, well that is a question for eSignal, but this explains the difference from our side.

I hope this helps ?

Steve

PS kumara, I agree, the pattern is not great looking either........... so not a good example. I much prefer the 3min NQ short that I posted on another thread yesterday :)

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Everybody,

Just to wrap on the difference between Chris's chart and my chart. This was due to the differnet data when I had my PC set to EST. Chris uses GMT.

Why this would make such a big difference, especially when currencies trade 24hrs I am unsure, but at least I have tracked down the answer here...........

Steve

[Eddo]

Very many thanks Steve, I'am going to set my trading PC to EST from now on in the hope that our friends in the US have been getting a one bar edge on us Limys :) - all very strange bearing in mind we are infront of them time wise - would have thought they should be one bar behind not one infront - lol happy hunting -

btw I hope you were watching the $TRIN creeping up and up yesterday and used that to put a short trade on the US markets. Just before 2 pm EST (when then all come back from lunch) I went short the SPX (not an MTP set up - just a gut feeling) and hey ho had an hour that was better than a downhill ski run which more than made up for my miserable Forex trade on this link ;) !

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Chris

Certinally did.......... :)

There was a good looking TS3 sell on the 3min NQ that I have posted in another thread

http://www.mtptrader.com/showthread.php?t=664

As you can see, this got you short just before the big drop ....:)

But seriously, this is what position sizing is all about - taking a 1x loss here, but then making a 4x (or nearer 11x at the last profit target - which was the low of the day !) profit on another trade - small losses and big profits - the key to sucessful trading...........

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Chris and everybody,

I though you would all like an update on my work on new code to help Filter the pattern for the ABC set-ups.

This is a slow process but is going well, as you can see from the chart below, the new code would have removed this TS3 sell on the EURGBP. So not being "ideal", it would not have been a perfect set-up.

I still would like to test this new efs "in house" for another week, but if all goes well, I plan a release easrly next week.

As you can see, I am working hard on improving the MTP code to make spotting the good looking ABC patterns as easy as I can for you all :)

Thanks

Steve

[Eddo]

Thanks Steve,

That will be very nice but having said that, even your 'horrible' looking setup for the above example produced a 3:1 R winning trade. For what its worth, I do hope the new efd won't only bring up setups that are 'perfect' - if it does, we will be missing out on setups which, whilst not perfect, can (with a bit of personal experience) often turn out into good trades.

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Chris,

Of course not, I will make it an on/off for the additional "Steve's filtering"................ so you can choose ..

Steve