Forex Fundamentals

[soap3000]

Thought we should start a thread on this.

I am sure we all gather some good research and analysis to help us with our decisions.

Caring means sharing... :D

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/SMC314A7C4078423E4C125716900202926/$file/DBDaily_09052006.pdf

[NHN123]

Good Idea! I like it.

Here's one

[jswin]

Hi, thanks for a really interesting thread. I am a new MTP EOD user (just Forex so far). I have never paid much attention to fundamentals before, mainly because I have no idea how to guage what sort of effect they'll have.
Do the experienced traders have any advice on which announcements they feel are particularly important?
Thanks

[NHN123]

Hi, thanks for a really interesting thread. I am a new MTP EOD user (just Forex so far). I have never paid much attention to fundamentals before, mainly because I have no idea how to guage what sort of effect they'll have.
Do the experienced traders have any advice on which announcements they feel are particularly important?
Thanks
I usually pay attention to:

Non farm payrolls (and the unemployment rate)
ISM manufacturing / non manufacturing
CPI / PPI
GDP
FOMC announcements
Bernanke speaches
Retails sales
Consumer confidence
Trade balance
BoE minutes / ECB announcements....

Can't remember any more at the moment....

I tend to take the most notice of anything indicating growth or inflation

I'm not an authority on this sort of thing, so don't take my word for it.

[Eddo]

I usually pay attention to:

Non farm payrolls (and the unemployment rate)
ISM manufacturing / non manufacturing
CPI / PPI
GDP
FOMC announcements
Bernanke speaches
Retails sales
Consumer confidence
Trade balance
BoE minutes / ECB announcements....

Can't remember any more at the moment....

I tend to take the most notice of anything indicating growth or inflation

I'm not an authority on this sort of thing, so don't take my word for it.

I have CNBC running in the background all the time - most of the time I think they talk a lot of balls but if anything does happen or any announcements are due or made you get em fast - I just have it running quietly on a tele in the corner of my trading room - one bonus is Becky Quick and Maria Barteromo are also very nice to look at ! :) :) ............ and me a married man !!

[soap3000]

In General I've found that when trading 4 hours and Daily's there is always 'room to maneuver' - yet fundamentals are still important to be aware of.

Announcements can create whipsaws and/or reversals. A whipsaw will not ususally be more than 20-40 pips. If it is more then it will probably cause a reversal.

So what this means for me is that:
1) I won't enter a trade 30-60 mins before an announcement as the expectation of certain numbers might cause my position to trigger falsely (ie not natural movement or trend)
2) If I am in a position and an announcement is coming up - it is worthwhile watching it and hovering over the 'close' button if it does look like it's gonna be a reversal (at least making sure you adjust SL levels for Break evens and so on depending where you are in the trade).

I get all sorts of research spasmodically... These analysts have their own systems/tools for understanding the price movements. I am enjoying sticking with MTP - however, if I find something and they also confirm it then it can be attacked more confidently.

[soap3000]

Hi Steve,

Is this a valid arguement for sticking with currency futures...?

You've been trading for a lot longer than me. Are these just boogie man stories or what. My nightmares are plagued but bucket brokers and stop runners...


http://www.tradingeducators.com/forex_warning.htm

[abc_trader]

My nightmares are plagued but bucket brokers and stop runners...



yes like the 50 pip stop running we just had on EURJPY, from 142.10 to 141.60, those guys never get tired from running stops

[NHN123]

12 May 2006 04:36 GMT


Japan alarmed rapid yen rise may undermine economic growth, corporate profits
TOKYO (AFX) - The Japanese government expressed growing concern at the recent rapid appreciation of the yen, with ministers warning it could undermine economic growth and corporate profits.

"The rapid fluctuation is not desirable. It could affect companies," Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki told reporters, according to Jiji Press.

A stronger yen undermines the competitiveness of Japanese exporters and reduces the value of their repatriated overseas earnings.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, the government's top spokesman, also voiced concern.

"Foreign exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals," Abe was quoted as saying by Jiji.

"We think the excessive volatility is undesirable for the economy and we want to carefully monitor market movements," he said.

The remarks came after the dollar fell below 110 yen briefly in Asian trade Friday for the first time in eight months on renewed speculation that the US Federal Reserve could soon pause in its series of interest rate rises.

The dollar has dropped by about 8 yen or 7 pct in under a month after world finance chiefs cranked up the pressure on emerging economies, particularly China, to allow their currencies to appreciate as part of efforts to remedy global economic imbalances.

Tanigaki stressed earlier in the week that the Group of Seven nations were not seeking a depreciation of the dollar, suggesting financial markets had misunderstood the G7 April 21 statement.

The United States believes China has been too cautious in adjusting the value of its yuan, fostering deep imbalances in global trade, despite a small revaluation last July.

Japan has also traditionally run a large current account surplus with the US.

Japan has intervened on numerous occasions in the past to keep the yen down against the dollar and help exporters stay competitive but its monetary authorities have not intervened in the market since mid-March 2004.