Superb Russell long

[Tony Beckwith]

Hi everyone

The chart says it all - absolutely no need to explain - no extravagant forecasting or analysis - this is what the MTPredictor software is all about...

Thanks

Tony.

[Tony Beckwith]

The outcome -

Over +6x profit using the standard MTPredictor trade management guidelines...

Fitting testimony to the new ABC pattern filter...enough said!

Tony.

[mrkam]

Big Question here, as I want to make sure I am not misunderstanding the "standard" MTP rules.... you say 6R, but I see we would have been stopped out before the 6R was reached. (I did! Actually, I traded the 3min, still a good trade though, and no complaints. just want to clarify....)

The standard would be to trail stops at the bottom of the previous bar once a WPT has been reached.... (as I understand it, and maybe this is where I am wrong....) With this, look at this:

1. At the first WPT, we had a big gray bar up to and thruough the WPT, so time to trail, then a red bar down. At the beginning of the NEXT bar, which was blue, we would have moved our stop to the bottom of the red bar, which was subsequently hit by the blue bar, so we are out, right?

In fact, the stop you note at 6.2R is the same structure as the stop I mention above, so we would have be out WAY earlier... Still a good 3R trade...

I am not trying to poke holes, but trying to understand the standard you mention. I hope I am wrong, because that means I will learn! But, I think we would have been out way earlier. I was....

thanks for any clarification in advance...

And YES! hurrah for the new filters. BIG improvement, and good job all....

I am a BIG MTP fan and promoter. I trade full time by this and am making a living at it quite nicely. No worries here! But I LOOK for oppotunities to learn, and this might be one...

MK

[stevej]

My understanding is there is a further rule that once a bar closes beyond the WPT then the stop is fixed 1 point beneath / above that bar until it touches the next WTP from where it again trails.

[Eddo]

Big Question here, as I want to make sure I am not misunderstanding the "standard" MTP rules.... you say 6R, but I see we would have been stopped out before the 6R was reached. (I did! Actually, I traded the 3min, still a good trade though, and no complaints. just want to clarify....)

The standard would be to trail stops at the bottom of the previous bar once a WPT has been reached.... (as I understand it, and maybe this is where I am wrong....) With this, look at this:

1. At the first WPT, we had a big gray bar up to and thruough the WPT, so time to trail, then a red bar down. At the beginning of the NEXT bar, which was blue, we would have moved our stop to the bottom of the red bar, which was subsequently hit by the blue bar, so we are out, right?

In fact, the stop you note at 6.2R is the same structure as the stop I mention above, so we would have be out WAY earlier... Still a good 3R trade...

I am not trying to poke holes, but trying to understand the standard you mention. I hope I am wrong, because that means I will learn! But, I think we would have been out way earlier. I was....

thanks for any clarification in advance...

And YES! hurrah for the new filters. BIG improvement, and good job all....

I am a BIG MTP fan and promoter. I trade full time by this and am making a living at it quite nicely. No worries here! But I LOOK for oppotunities to learn, and this might be one...

MK

Hi there,

For what its worth I don't think that this is quite such an exact sience however I agree that if you were trading on the 'last bar low take out rule' once the WPT has been hit, you would have been taken out at the Min Wpt not the Typ Wpt. However, I believe that it is worthwhile running the 20 period MA as well, and using that in conjucture with the bar low points - i.e. when I have a really strong looking MA I would tend to use that as the stop rather than the last bar because it will allow just that little bit more flexibility - I suspect that if you overlay the 20 period MA on this trade it might have kept you in even longer ?

Just my thoughts to put into the pot :) - Chris

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Guys,

Great suggestion Chris as a way to "run" the tarde further...........

But to answer Mark's specific question, Yes as outlined in the Trading Course, the "standard" trade management guidelines say to keep the stop 1 tick beyond the bar that first "closes beyond" the WPT, untill the next WPT is reached.

This is what Tony has demonstrated here, so a great return of just over 6x the initial risk :)

Thanks

Steve

[mrkam]

Thanks Tony, Thanks Steve, Thanks Chris, Thanks Steve! In a matter of hours one can get the best "critique/input/advice" out there!

That clarified everything. Indeed, the "Standard" Tony mentioned would have taken us out at the first WPT. (still a good trade, mind you!!) The 20MA is an "advanced" technique per the manual, and I would have expected nothing less than advanced from Chris!!! To be true, I didn't even think of watching the 20MA yesterday, and it was PERFECT application for it. And Steve mentioned the "move thru the WPT" guideline, which is also "Standard" per the manual, but this would have been not so clear, in that it went from below the 1st WPT, thru it, then above, then immediately below for several bars... sort of a judgement call of whether this was a valid break at the time. And, since that gray bar was so long, leaving a stop below that one while the chart moved would have been an aggressive move. (AND WOULD HAVE WORKED!!, at the first WPT anyway...)

Point well taken about this not being hard & fast... I just want to make sure in my mind I understand the expertise being presented here, then I can mush it around as I like!!

Thanks again all, and I trust this will be a good study for future reference for our other MTP-ers out there!

Trade well, and prosper!

mk

[Tony Beckwith]

Hi mk

Actually the standard MTPredictor trade management guidelines took you out at the 2nd WPT profit target - NOT the 1st...

Because the stop was fixed at the low of the first bar to CLOSE above the 1st WPT...yes, a long bar but that's how it was...

It wasn't a judgment call and wasn't subjective - just the standard policy!

That's the beauty of the standard trade management guidelines - they're crystal clear.

Thanks for the discussion

Tony.

[mrkam]

And I have to APOLOGIZE for being unclear in my points. Your 5 min was exactly as you posted. No quarrels there. My point was on the 3min, and although I mentioned it briefly, I didn't make it clear.... so I am attaching my chart.

I traded the 3min. And was stopped out at the first WPT per standard MTP guidelines. I just wanted to make sure I understood them, and thanks ALL for helping with that...

But, to the 3min chart. Two times it "reached" the first WPT. At which point we would trail stops, and would have been stopped out. (both times)

That did NOT happen on the 5 min, and Tony is COMPLETELY correct in his clarification. (the first WPT was not only reached, but closed above, so therefore you set your stop at the bottom of that bar and leave it, until the next WPT is reached, which happened, and so on... the trade went further with the 5min.)

But on the 3 min, we got stopped out early.... which begs the question....

If we see triggers on both the 3 min and the 5min, is there a preferrable time frame to go with? Should we go with the higher one? Or does it matter. Maybe I got stopped out early on this one, but the next I will go further than with the 5 min?? Probably there is no "right" answer, but just pondering...

So sorry if it seemed I was questioning the 5 min analysis... I was really looking at the 3 min, but probably communicated it badly, which is common for me...

Ultimately, I wanted to check my understanding, and hopefully provide a discourse for others to learn from...

thanks for all of your responses...

Mark

[cedl]

I am a new member. I enjoy all the posts. You guys & gals are great. Most plays will be losers. Don't get caught up in the little things. Keep it simple and you will win. Never quit! ;)

[stevej]

If we see triggers on both the 3 min and the 5min, is there a preferrable time frame to go with? Should we go with the higher one? Or does it matter. Maybe I got stopped out early on this one, but the next I will go further than with the 5 min?? Probably there is no "right" answer, but just pondering...

I rarely trade intraday. I do not have much time to do so and I'm not prepared to pay the ludicrous cost of e-signal - therefore I get no value at present from my purchase of RT. However I do, from time to time, trade RT using MTP EOD and a 'link' to another data source.

Sorry for rambling and to try to answer your question. All, of course, my opinion and you should do your own research:-

I do not use the standard guidelines for money, risk or trade management.

First, I take account of the volatility and liquidity of the instrument I am trading in calculating both my position size and stop once the trade has gone far enough in my direction to do so (usually about 1.5 ATR).

Second, different time frames have different volatility. Different volatility in turn means a different degree of risk. As I control risk by position sizing I measure volatility for each time frame that interests me and calculate my position size automatically and dynamically for each time frame. For example, assume my position sizes are calculated as follows:-

1 minute time frame 1000 shares
3 minute time frame 750 shares
5 minute time frame 500 shares

If I get a buy signal on the 5 minute time frame I buy 500 shares. If I then, for example, get a long signal on the 3 minute time frame I increase my position to 750 shares. Similarly if I have a 1 minute signal, increase to 1000 shares.

Scale out of the position in the same way when stops are hit or some other way I use to determine my exit occurs.

Hope this helps rather than adding confusion!

Steve