Wrong Signal or is it me??

[sharestalker]

Lost out today on a google trading, because MPTrading gave a wrong signal 4 x TS3 sell. I went short. I checked everything TRIN was red and up 1.25 and STF was a blue big hill ! But it went the other way to about 378 up and I made a loss of $1050.00. So where did I go wrong. I must have made a big mistake somewhere! Please advise . Thanks.

sorry I do not know how to put pics into the board.

regards

Nick

[rosow]

Nick,
I don't get your post on 2 fronts:

1) Losses are part of the business. No, let me re-phrase that, losses are inevitable in trading. If you are risking 1% of your portfolio than I would assume you are trading a $105,000.00 account since you lost $1,050.00. In this case your loss is perfectly acceptable! However, if your account is only around $50,000.00 and you are risking 1% than shame on you because if you don't get it regarding money management from this site than you'll never get it!

2) You never said what time frame you were trading on. The cleanest ABC I see for a short came on the daily chart 3 bars ago. Yes, it's a manual set up and therefore I wouldn't have found it unless I was hell bent on trading GOOG. That short would have a stop at break even right now. See attached.

Lenny

[sharestalker]

:confused: Sorry.....Lenny.......I won`t ask again......I just wanted a technical advise, where I made a mistake using MTPredictor. By the way, It was the 1 minute chart.

Regards

Nick

[stevej]

Lost out today on a google trading, because MPTrading gave a wrong signal 4 x TS3 sell. I went short. I checked everything TRIN was red and up 1.25 and STF was a blue big hill ! But it went the other way to about 378 up and I made a loss of $1050.00. So where did I go wrong. I must have made a big mistake somewhere! Please advise . Thanks.

sorry I do not know how to put pics into the board.

regards

Nick
If this was a TS3 at 19:28 then the signal was to go short at $376 with a protective stop at $376.20, The R/R was 6.38, the $TRIN (on my chart was black but above 1) and the STF was red.

Entry was not triggered for 7 bars which in my view is too long after the signal and the stop was hit on the 10th bar which, as it did not gap against you should have resulted in a 20c per share loss. I do not know what your position size was but I hope you take position sizing seriously.

I think 1 minute charts are too short to 'trade trends'. I find very the very short term picture helpful to confirm entry signals given in a higher time frame but too nervous to trade in their own right. Just my opinion of course. All in all this is not a trade I would have taken but this was not a 'wrong signal'.

It sounds as though you expect to win on every trade. If so you are living in cloud cuckoo land. You should expect to win about 30 - 35% of trades using MTP.

If you manage your money and size your positions correctly you should come out in front but you may not.

As a postscript, the TS3 long that accurred about 1 hour later on the same chart might have made you a profit depending on how you manage your trades. Similarly, the TS3 short at about 18.00 turned out to be a nice winner although the R/R was not good enough to take.

SJ

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Nick,

I agree totally with Stevej and Lenny, in that we are all not sure what you were doing here as far as correct position sizing. Also, you say you took 4 consectitive losing trades, I personally cannot see where there were, and even if you did, you fail to mention the profitable trades that would have also unfolded, for example a 7x profit please below. With correct position sizing this one profit would have more than made up for your 4 losses.

However, it is trying to trade on such a short term chart that concerns me, a 1min chart is far far to short even for the most active and liquid markets, let alone individual stocks. As such, I would strongly suggest that you move to a longer time frame as trying to trade on a 1min chart is not a good idea at all.

I hope this helps ?

Steve

[stevej]

Steve,

Looking at the chart, what's a TS4?

Steve

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi Stevej,

Guess you have not read today's report yet ;)

The TS4 is the new automatic set-up in eSignal for the Advanced users amoug you. It is the same as the Advanced ABC in the EOD porgram.

There will be more info on this over the next few days via my daily report and new help vidoes on this in the members section later today.

Thanks

Steve

[stevej]

Hi Stevej,

Guess you have not read today's report yet ;)

The TS4 is the new automatic set-up in eSignal for the Advanced users amoug you. It is the same as the Advanced ABC in the EOD porgram.

There will be more info on this over the next few days via my daily report and new help vidoes on this in the members section later today.

Thanks

Steve
Oops - must read things more carefully in future!

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Nick,

SteveJ and Lenny are 100% correct and they give you some excellent advice.

I also agree with Steve Griffiths... I'm not sure why you are attempting to trade a 1 minute chart on ANYTHING as the cost of doing business is prohibitive. Seriously, even if you trade something as liquid as the e-mini markets trading on a 1-minute chart is like shooting the flies off of an animal at a 1000 yards...it can be done, but why on Gods name would you want to do this?

I can only think of one reason and that's because you are trading scared money (money you can't afford to lose) and the reason you want to trade the 1-minute chart is to be "closer" to the market. Let me be the first to tell you that is a false theory and many people have been led to believe this is possible. There is simply way to much "bad information" floating around on the internet about what is possible in trading. In fact, half of these so called: successful vendors don't have any idea what they are talking about... Most of them are expert marketers who happen to be talented web site marketers who have been successful in selling other area and have now infiltrated into the trading industry. The real acid test is to but put them in a trading room and I guarantee they will self-destruct. Be very careful about what you read in this business!

All the best,

[jjc]

i don't know abut you guys but Im kicking butt this morning on short NQ 5min

Still in the trade as I type this

No time for pics lol

j

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi jjc,

Exactly.................. here is the pic.............. a great trade - well done :)

Steve

[jjc]

Steve or Matt,

Do me a favor and save me some time looking for the MTP exit rules.

According to MTP, once in a trade, do you exit the trade when the price crosses above/below the ATRStop or price just touches ATRStop? A good example of my question is the NQ 5min WTP short trade this morning.

Or, is that a judgement call on when to exit? My judgement call this morning was to bail as price touched the ATRStop.

Thx,

j

[Matt Bowen]

Hi jjc,

Wait until the ATR flips (it will change color). If you want to park a stop, then look at the ATR level on the info screen.

Hope that helps,