Win / Loose ratio

[DaveS]

Hi Everyone.
I'm new here, have not got MTPredictor yet but soon will have I think.
Could some of you who have some experience with the software please tell me what you think the ratio of winning to loosing trades is. Ball park figures only expected of course. In case iv'e not been entirely clear, how many loosing trades do you expect for every winner ?
Thanks
Dave

[Dentalexpert]

DaveS
From what I can see the expected win loss ratio seems to be about 33.3% win, 33.3% break even and 33.3% loosers. The important think however is the risk control element of the software which ensures that the losses are kept small and the winners are allowed to run.

hope this helps

Rgds
Dental expert

[Eddo]

Hi Everyone.
I'm new here, have not got MTPredictor yet but soon will have I think.
Could some of you who have some experience with the software please tell me what you think the ratio of winning to loosing trades is. Ball park figures only expected of course. In case iv'e not been entirely clear, how many loosing trades do you expect for every winner ?
Thanks
Dave

Hi

Take a look at the 'Expectancy' Link from the start - I posted that and those are real results and figures using MTP - it should answer all your questions

[Steve Griffiths]

Good reply Chris,

It still amazes me how many people still get hung up on being right and are only concerned with a win/loss ratio, but then I guess that is why so many amatuer traders are losers, because they do not understand how the markets realy unfold.

DaveS - as Chris says, please see his actual results, this will show how having trades that have BIG porfits in relation to the small losses is actually far more importnat than just a win/loss ratio.

Thanks

Steve

[martinrcox]

Hi Dave,

I would really recommend reading " Trade your way to Financial Freedom" by Van K Tharp (ISBN 0-07-064762-3). As Steve and Chris have said the key to success is about correct position sizing.

You could be right 90% of the time and still lose money if your initial risk is not managed correctly. Say you take ten trades and make $100 on 9 of them and then lose $1000 on 1 you have been right 90% of the time but you have lost $100.

Likewise if you take 10 trades but you limit your losses to $100 on each trade. Say that you make $300 (3 x your initial risk of $100) on each of 3 of the trades, breakeven on 2 trades and lose money on 5 trades. You have been right 30% of the time but you end up making $400

I hope that this helps

[jands]

I am still very new to MTP but everything said in the posts and all the advice given should be followed. These guys know what they are doing!!!:D

Jim

[DaveS]

Wow - Thanks everyone for your comments, I will deal with them one by one.

DentalExpert - Thanks, just what I wanted.

Chris - Thanks. Excellent thread, from which I learned much. It also included the info I wanted.

Steve - Thanks for your reply. I wanted to get a rough idea of this because, good and detailed as part one of your course is, and excellent as your website is, neither makes any mention of the relative frequency of winners and loosers. Knowing that the winners will be 50X bigger than the loosers is of little use if you get 100 loosers to every winner. You need to have a rough estimate of both numbers to make a rough assesment of the software, which I think is all you can do before you get it.
I agree that expectancy as espoused by Chris is an excellent measure if you want to measure your performance.
I don't think I am "hung up on being right", VERY much the opposite and don't realy understand why I needed such a reprimand.

Martin - Iv'e not read any of van Tharps stuff, but certainly will after going through Chris's thread.

Jands - Thanks. I certainly did not expect so many replies.

[jjc]

Wow - Thanks everyone for your comments, I will deal with them one by one.

DentalExpert - Thanks, just what I wanted.

Chris - Thanks. Excellent thread, from which I learned much. It also included the info I wanted.

Steve - Thanks for your reply. I wanted to get a rough idea of this because, good and detailed as part one of your course is, and excellent as your website is, neither makes any mention of the relative frequency of winners and loosers. Knowing that the winners will be 50X bigger than the loosers is of little use if you get 100 loosers to every winner. You need to have a rough estimate of both numbers to make a rough assesment of the software, which I think is all you can do before you get it.
I agree that expectancy as espoused by Chris is an excellent measure if you want to measure your performance.
I don't think I am "hung up on being right", VERY much the opposite and don't realy understand why I needed such a reprimand.

Martin - Iv'e not read any of van Tharps stuff, but certainly will after going through Chris's thread.

Jands - Thanks. I certainly did not expect so many replies.

DaveS,

I'm a MTPredictor user just like you.

When I get a WPT I filter the trade with momentum. If I don't have momentum in my favor I don't take the trade. I'm more in the side of Steve's methodology of trading except I've added the extra momentum thingy (as long as it doesnt affect the risk/reward)

Here is an example of my trade yesterday and how I filtered the trade.

1. wpt @ 9:48 cst (positive for trade)
2. fib cluster support at 1304.00 and at WPT TS1 (positive for trade)
3. TRIN bear ugly at 1.45, ready to reverse (positive for trade)
4. STF neutral (no factor either way)
5. MTF (momentum trend filter) buy signal (positive for trade)

*** filter WPT trades with momentum***

disclaimer; not a text book MTPredictor methodology but hey I rarely have a losing trade either.

j

[jands]

I don't really want to over complicate my trading but it is interesting. It looks like it does alter, or at least probably would alter the RR.

What are your settings for Momentum.

It is at least worth the time to apply it to the chart so that I may keep a record of it.

Thanks,

Jim

[jjc]

I don't really want to over complicate my trading but it is interesting. It looks like it does alter, or at least probably would alter the RR.

What are your settings for Momentum.

It is at least worth the time to apply it to the chart so that I may keep a record of it.

Thanks,

Jim

I reckon you ought to stick to the MTP guidelines.

j

[jands]

Thanks,

Jim;)

[rosow]

J,
No offense, but this is the second time you threw the "momentum" carrot at the group but totally avoided the eSignal parameters. Why the secrecy?? I think you mentioned it was a double stochastic a while ago but nothing further. Most of us understand that waiting for a momentum indicator to cross may delay our buy stop and increase our r/r. If what you're doing is proprietary than fine but don't make these type of statements to the board "disclaimer; not a text book MTPredictor methodology but hey I rarely have a losing trade either." and not be prepared to disclose the indicator parameters. Please don't take this the wrong way. We are all big boys and girls and are responsible for our own trades. You are just putting another idea out there, which is great, and it's our job to give it a look and see if it fits our trading style. Just my 2 cents!

Lenny

I reckon you ought to stick to the MTP guidelines.

j

[Matt Bowen]

John,

Instead of walking around here flashing a junior "G man badge" with this Double Stochastics indicator... either share it with them or quit posting the charts (yes, it's another indicator I've used in the past).

I'm getting e-mails from people asking me why is he posting this and I don't know why you are posting these if you don't want to share them with the rest of the members. Personally, I don't have the time to answer e-mail on something that is not in the program.If you only want to other MTPredictor users to have it then that's fine I understand... have them send you a private e-mail and then you can send them the .efs script. so you don't have to post this on for public domain.

Bottom line: There are several people that would like to give you feedback or take a look at the indicator. People can't give you any feedback or participate in a discussion with out the indicator. If you want to sell it great...put up a website and sell or put up a discussion board... do something, but to post charts for yourself is kind of stupid. I mean you already took the trade and banked the profit, what good does that do for those here who want more information or just want to provide you with feedback?

[jjc]

J,
No offense, but this is the second time you threw the "momentum" carrot at the group but totally avoided the eSignal parameters. Why the secrecy?? I think you mentioned it was a double stochastic a while ago but nothing further. Most of us understand that waiting for a momentum indicator to cross may delay our buy stop and increase our r/r. If what you're doing is proprietary than fine but don't make these type of statements to the board "disclaimer; not a text book MTPredictor methodology but hey I rarely have a losing trade either." and not be prepared to disclose the indicator parameters. Please don't take this the wrong way. We are all big boys and girls and are responsible for our own trades. You are just putting another idea out there, which is great, and it's our job to give it a look and see if it fits our trading style. Just my 2 cents!

Lenny

Hi Lenny,

No offense taken, and thank you for not being indignant.

Using a momentum indicator is merely my own way of creating an advanced trading strategy. There is nothing proprietary about it and as I said before any momentum indicator will do just fine. By using momentum, my objective is to have as much gas in the tank (so to speak) as possible for the WPT move.

I have no indicators to sell and I'm a user of MTP just like you. I posted a chart Friday simply to show where I took a trade and the steps I used to confirm the trade using momentum as a base. Sorry, if it was after-the-fact as I was busy trading while it was taking place. I'm not talented enough to trade multiple trades in different directions all at once.

If you find using momentum to help in your trading decision not adequate may I please refer you then to the MTPredictor course part 2 where Steve discusses his advanced trading strategies such as 20ma, doji candelsticks, 80/20 day, pyramiding and so forth.

While reading the course part 2 please read where TS1, TS2 and TS3 are likely to appear and why it's important to take advantage of this setups. TS1will guide you to Elliot Wave 3 and TS2 will guide you to Elliot Wave 5. Steve did a fantastic job of writing that course and darn good reading if you ask me.

Have a good weekend, see you at the bell on Monday and check your PM.

j (junior g-man)

[Eddo]

DaveS,

I'm a MTPredictor user just like you.

When I get a WPT I filter the trade with momentum. If I don't have momentum in my favor I don't take the trade. I'm more in the side of Steve's methodology of trading except I've added the extra momentum thingy (as long as it doesnt affect the risk/reward)

Here is an example of my trade yesterday and how I filtered the trade.

1. wpt @ 9:48 cst (positive for trade)
2. fib cluster support at 1304.00 and at WPT TS1 (positive for trade)
3. TRIN bear ugly at 1.45, ready to reverse (positive for trade)
4. STF neutral (no factor either way)
5. MTF (momentum trend filter) buy signal (positive for trade)

*** filter WPT trades with momentum***

disclaimer; not a text book MTPredictor methodology but hey I rarely have a losing trade either.

j

Hi there,

I like the idea of rarely having a loser 'cos I have lots ! so could I ask two favours please:

1. How do you get the TRIN and the STF to show on the same screen overlayed like you have?

2. Would you post or send me details of which Momentum Study you use and the settings you use for that.

Many thanks - Chris

[jands]

I think we would all like to at least take a look at the study and settings for it.

Thanks again,

Jim

[jjc]

Hi there,

I like the idea of rarely having a loser 'cos I have lots ! so could I ask two favours please:

1. How do you get the TRIN and the STF to show on the same screen overlayed like you have?

2. Would you post or send me details of which Momentum Study you use and the settings you use for that.

Many thanks - Chris

Hi Chris,

On Esignal, first I load a TRIN and STF and them merge them by using the shift key and mouse up. It just saves screen space for me.

The momentum filter I use is a dss I created but you can use any stoch with the settings 6 , 5 , 2 and get the same results. If you want the same exact filter I use for Esiganl I can email it to you. Go to my PM and give me your addy.

j