Any Longer Traders Having Success ?

[Biggo]

Hi

I was wondering if anyone is having much success trading stocks recently using MTP EOD for longer term trades? I seem to be having a hard time at the moment.:mad:
I know that Matt was doing his IBD stock portfolio but that was stopped.
The user group seems to be heavily focused on short term intra-day stuff & I was interested if anyone is actually trading longer term, & if so how they are doing?

[stevej]

These were the last results published by Matt for EOD futures & Stocks.

Futures initially 'thrilling' but had been going sideways for some time when the reports ceased. I think quite late on Matt had tried to improve performance by trading only 'with the trend' but that did not seem to affect results much.

Stocks in profit but unexciting. Abandoned in favour of following Forex, but that never happened.

Matt was going to update the figures (from memory) quarterly so just about due.

Hope this helps?

[Biggo]

These were the last results published by Matt for EOD futures & Stocks.

Futures initially 'thrilling' but had been going sideways for some time when the reports ceased. I think quite late on Matt had tried to improve performance by trading only 'with the trend' but that did not seem to affect results much.

Stocks in profit but unexciting. Abandoned in favour of following Forex, but that never happened.

Matt was going to update the figures (from memory) quarterly so just about due.

Hope this helps?


Hi Stevej

First I appologise for the thread title is should have been " Any Longer TERM Traders Having Success" I could not edit it after I noticed my error :o
Thanks for the info .
For me profitable & unexciting sounds great ;)

Cheers

[stevej]

Hi Stevej
For me profitable & unexciting sounds great ;)
Cheers

Hi Biggo,

The attachments are not mine but from Matt's now defunct daily report.

'Unexciting' is my expression and relates to the end result but, however much I appreciate that losing trades are a fact of life, it can still be pretty hairy sitting through the drawdowns. With the MTP 'hit rate' being regularly around 30% - 35% they happen too often for comfort.

I would dearly like to find some way of lifting the number of winning trades by a few % points. I would sleep much better at night!

SJ

[Steve Griffiths]

Hi SJ,

This is why I (personally) prefer to only consider the "perfect" trade (particularly when day-trading), where everything all comes together (as I outline in my daily report). But this dos mean trading less often....

On the EOD, I agree, at the moment this is just a function of the market going no-where at the moment. Which is frustrating for all of us....

Steve

[AndyvB]

I would think that times of low activity and few setups will be followed by high activity and lots of setups. That seems to be the case most often.
Andy

[Biggo]

I would think that times of low activity and few setups will be followed by high activity and lots of setups. That seems to be the case most often.
Andy

Hi Andy

I look forward to the end of this current cycle & some high activity soon.
Thanks for your reply

Cheers

[d-day]

I was wondering if anyone is having much success trading stocks recently using MTP EOD for longer term trades? I seem to be having a hard time at the moment.

Hi Biggo,

How are you searching for trade candidates? And do you trade from both the short and the long side?

What I have always liked to do (pre-MTPredictor) is to look for stocks that in in an up trend, and are pulling back and finding support at its 20, 50, 200 day moving average, with stochastics oversold for long candidates. For short candidates, simply reverse (downtrend with rally finding resistance at the simple MA with stochastics overbought). Furthermore, I like stocks with a 50 day MA volume of over 1 million shares. This will often yield 30 to 100 candiates total. In the past, I would look at each chart and try to figure which stocks would be likely to move in the anticipated direction (and soon!).

Now, that is, post-MTPredictor, I simply have MTPredictor EOD scan the 30-100 candidates for trade set-ups. I started this last week, and I do not have the numbers all added up, but I will include some screen shots of all the trade set-ups so far.

GG got stomped (stomped - not stopped out today). Some have not yet triggered. A few, such as ATI, WCI, WFMI are sitting on nice gains.

This means that rather than looking for MT Trade set-ups first, and then trying to find some indicator(s) to filter the MT list, I use two indicators (MA's and Stochastics) to pre-screen 7000+ stocks and then I use MT Predictor as the final filter.

I will post another reply with more screen shots.

[d-day]

Here are some more screen shots of EOD trade candidates I have come up with in September.

[d-day]

I am not making a reccomendation for others, but here is a screen shot of the only trade identified by MT Predictor of the stocks that met my pre-screening criteria at the EOD today.

Since 9-1-06, my pre-screen has identified hundreds of stocks setting up for a short to intermediate term swing. MT Predictor has identified trade set-ups in 11 of those candidtaes.

AEP sold short @ 35.96 closed today @ 36.06 (-0.10)
ATI sold short @ 60.35 closed today @ 57.76 (+2.59)
CAL short candidate never triggered - stop hit before entry trigger - order cancelled
ET long candidate not yet triggered
GG bought @ 27.66 stopped out @ 26.38 (-1.28)
HMA sold short @ 21.30 closed today @ 21.16 (-0.06)
KEY bought @ 36.66 closed today @ 36.76 (+0.10)
TOL bought @ 25.25 stopped out at 26.72 (-1.47)
WCI bought @ 15.39 closed today @ 16.84 (+1.45)
WFMI bought @ 53.23 closed today @ 54.97 (+1.74)

In spite of the GG and TOL losses, the others have resulted in a nice rise in equity in my position trading account.


Thanks for listening;)

[Biggo]

Hi David

Thanks for sharing your trades that is very enlightening.
I do look for opportunities on both the long & short sides.
I scan about 2000 stocks then look for those that look nice & symmetrical. I do not look at any indicators at all personally as I find I can always find one that will back up my own personal bias !!
What I do look for on Daily charts is to see if the WPT in in the same area as the 100 ma, as this tends to be around the weekly 20 ma mean that often acts as good support/resistance.

Thanks again

Biggo

[dimpleshah65]

I am sachin shah from india and i am doing very well with mt predictor eod.recently i had taken a few trades with the scanner and i have already recovered the amount of the software from them.

[optom]

Yes I do trade the ASX 300 with good results-I do check that the weekly trend confirms the trade-If Ok I enter-I adjust my first exit at the 2-3 profit mark & then ride it as per wave targets

[MLiddy]

Hi,

I've been using MTP to trade both ASX and US stocks EOD since the beginning of September. Figures on closed trades, inclusive of slippage and commision are:

ASX
5 Trades
40% Wins
2.31 R Gain
0.46 Expectancy

NYSE, NASDAQ
20 Trades
25% Wins
8.57 R Gain
0.43 Expectancy

These were traded with the trend, which did include a few shorts on the Nasdaq and ASX with a black STF in early september, all of which lost! Didn't take too long to work out that both Aussie and US Markets were trending up so shorts were not a good idea. Also in my early learning trades there have been some profits left on the table when there really wasn't any reason to close trade. Closed at 3R or 1A, only to see trades go to and through WPT's for healthy profits... oh well, all part of the learning curve! And if history repeats, there should be plenty more big R winners on the way.:)

[Matt Bowen]

Hi MLiddy,

I've been using MTP to trade both ASX and US stocks EOD since the beginning of September. Figures on closed trades, inclusive of slippage and commision are:

ASX
5 Trades
40% Wins
2.31 R Gain
0.46 Expectancy

NYSE, NASDAQ
20 Trades
25% Wins or winning percentage
8.57 R Gain or Win/loss ratio
0.43 Expectancy



Congratulations and great post! Thanks for the update... I wish more people understood trading and realize just how much can be made if they understood the win/loss ratio curve: (see attached Chart).

Also in my early learning trades there have been some profits left on the table when there really wasn't any reason to close trade. Closed at 3R or 1A, only to see trades go to and through WPT's for healthy profits... oh well, all part of the learning curve!

This is an important statement... because it shows you are still learning but even when you broke the rules you still made money. What's interesting is thet you didn't even let these trades mature and they stilll made good money.

This chart below will help people put this in prospective in terms of profitability.

Why do most traders lose money? "Because they would rather lose money than admit they're wrong."

-Marty Schwartz

[MLiddy]

Hi Matt,

Thanks for the reply, good to have the feedback. With the win/loss ratio, was this an average win size in relation to average loss, or does it relate to overall gain?

The R Gain that i posted, that was an overall figure for combined 20 trades, not sure if this is how you were using it, or whether you were looking at it as an average per winning trade? Would be nice to get that up in the 8's!

My figures for this small sample were:

20 Trades
5 Win (25%)
9 BE (using standard guidelines of moving stop to breakeven at 100% initial risk)
5 Loss

Total 8.57 R Gain
0.43 Gain per trade


I'm happy with the outcome so far, and interesting to see the R Gain even though only a quarter of trades taken ended up winning.

Next time i'm near a book shop need to get myself a copy of 'Trade your way to Financial Freedom', so i get a better understanding of all the concepts.

Cheers
Matt

[Matt Bowen]

Hi Matt,

Next time i'm near a book shop need to get myself a copy of 'Trade your way to Financial Freedom', so i get a better understanding of all the concepts.

Send me a private e-mail and I'll send you a report on money management and another one on Expectacy... this should hold you over until you can get to the book store :D

At first I didn't pay close attention to your Expectancy numbers, but now that I have it makes sense because you only had 5 trades on the AUX and 20 on the NYSE and NASDAQ. but notice the expectancy is the almost same. The only thing that I would like to see is a greater sample size. 25 trades is really not enough trading to give you a solid expectancy number, once you have 75 to 100 trades you will have a much better idea of what to expect on your future results.

The biggest difference is that your Win ratio on the AUX is based on 5 trades, that really telling you nothing and I fully expect that to increase over the next 15 or 20 trades. I've traded many different portfolios and have never seen MTP produce less than 30% wins over an extended period of time. In fact, high 30's is standard without filters and with filters (you will have less trades), but your win percentage will easily be over 40% winning trades.

Bottom line: You are off to a great start!

[esirnus]

Was wondering if Fibonnaci analysis can be done on MTPredictor. I am a fan of using fibonnaci retracements and extensions on the old Adv. Get module but can it be set up on MTPredictor?

[Steve Griffiths]

Sure can :)

Fib Price retracements, extensions and expansions are available as well as simple Time retracements and extensions.

Thanks

Steve

[esirnus]

Dear Steve:
Thanks for the reply. This may be asking too much but do you have available a short video and/or a charted example using the fibs in action. I have an affinity for using them - especially on the old Adv Get module - but I would love to see how you, Matt or any other MPT trader uses them on a consistent basis using the software before I purchase. Remember on the Adv Get module, you had to set the fib parameters to "on" or "off". Are the fib parameters preset or is it done manually?
Thanks,
Tom Ross

[MLiddy]

[QUOTE=MLiddy;5727]Hi,

I've been using MTP to trade both ASX and US stocks EOD since the beginning of September. Figures on closed trades, inclusive of slippage and commision are:

ASX
5 Trades
40% Wins
2.31 R Gain
0.46 Expectancy


I'm not one to ponder over 'what ifs', but after going through the ASX trades i mentioned the other day, thought it would only be fair to MTP to post the results of what should have happened with the standard guidelines, and without the mistakes i made while learning the software.

Of these 5 trades, 3 were shorts, which i took against a blue STF (mine at the time showed black, as i had settings wrong:o ), so should not have been taken. One was stopped out for breakeven, the other two for -1R losses.

With my false black STF, i closed a TS1 setup on CSL at 3R. With WPT's this would still be open, or ATR would have closed it a couple of days ago for a 6.4R Gain!!! So, in accordance with MTP rules, i would have only closed two trades, but would have a 7.8R total gain! :) Also currently have open TEL, which I'm trailing with ATR Stop, as I got in at the end of the ABC correction following an important low.

I know that my results are inconclusive due to such a small sample for both the Aussie and US Markets, but they are encouraging!

Cheers
Matt

[rabbitrun]

Hi,

Of these 5 trades, 3 were shorts, which i took against a blue STF (mine at the time showed black, as i had settings wrong ),

Sorry, complete novice. Could you explain how your settings could be wrong and what you had to do to ensure that they were right?

I'm just assuming that what I see is right as I just switch it on or off in the s/w.

Thanks

[MLiddy]

Hi,

Of these 5 trades, 3 were shorts, which i took against a blue STF (mine at the time showed black, as i had settings wrong ),

Sorry, complete novice. Could you explain how your settings could be wrong and what you had to do to ensure that they were right?

I'm just assuming that what I see is right as I just switch it on or off in the s/w.

Thanks

Hi Rabbitrun,

The STF settings in the EOD program were always right, i had an index page set up in Esignal, and had the setting wrong there. It was by using the EOD program that i discovered my mistake.

Thanks
Matt

[MLiddy]

Hi,

Just wanted to post an update to my results on US and Aussie Stock trades. I started trading both at the start of September last year, so four months in.

S&P500, Nasdaq100

Trades 41
Win 11
Loss 14
Percent W/L 46%
Expectancy 0.4
R Gain 16.6


ASX300

Trades 12
Win 4
Loss 5
% W/L 46%
Expectancy 0.39
R Gain 4.62


These are all closed trades, and are actual results including commision and slippage. I've been trading Automatic TS Setups (with restrictions on and filtered by me for the look of them) and trading only with the overall market trend (long). I've used the Profit targets mostly, but have started using the ATR on TS1 setups, in the hope of running these a bit further.

One thing i am now trying to do is to increase the opportunity, without too much of a fall in expectancy. I am trying to do this by scanning for trades at the minimum WPT as well as the typical, and by scanning for valid TS4setups. I'm only taking these in the direction of the individual stock and the overall market STF.

Would be interesting to know how others are using the scanner, and whether anyone has done a comparison between setups taken at Min or Typical WPT, as well as how important the market STF and the Stock STF are. I'm happy with my results so far, but if i can create more opportunity (even if the expectancy drops a bit), i'll be even happier:)

Cheers
Matt

[chrisg]

Hi Matt


I was looking over your results good job. You stated that you made 41 trades 11 winners and 14 losers. The remaining 17 are break evens?


Thanks
Chris

[MLiddy]

Hi Chris,

Yeah, the remaining ones are breakeven, using standard MTP rules of moving stop to breakeven at 100% initial risk.

Cheers
Matt

[mattijschris]

Hi Matt,

I think it is a great result. In 4 month you take about 20R profit. This means 60R profit in a year. If you risk 1.5% per trade, this would be a 90% return on your capital in 1 year. If you could do that consitently, you will be very rich in 5-7 years. I would sign up for such a result immediatly.

May I ask who do you use as a data vendor and with which broker do you trade?

Thanks for sharing.

Mattijschris

[MLiddy]

Hi Mattijschris,

I use Paritech for data for US and Aussie Stocks, and have just started with Equis/Reuters for UK Data... Haven't had enough trades for any results so far, but data seems good.

US Markets I trade S&P 500, as well as the 45 or so Nasdaq 100 Stocks that aren't in the S&P. I scan the ASX300, but some of these don't have adequate volume to trade, and i am only trading the FTSE100 at the moment. Could anyone trading FTSE stocks recommend whether the FTSE250 is also worth trading?

For a broker i use IG Markets, to trade CFD's on these stocks.


Cheers
Matt.